Popular Nigerian singer, Oluwajuwonlo Iledare, better known as Jaywon, has explained why he apologised to a fellow artiste Onyinkansola Aderigbigbe, popularly known as Ayra Starr, after being accused of mocking her for not receiving a Grammy nomination.

Speaking with Sunday Scoop, Jaywon clarified his intentions, saying, “I felt it was important to address the situation. My motivation behind the apology was to acknowledge any misunderstandings and to show support for her talent. The music industry can sometimes be competitive, but I believe in uplifting one another. You know how fans can be funny sometimes. Most importantly, in this industry, we should focus on collaboration and respect rather than rivalry. We all have our journeys, and it’s essential to celebrate each other’s successes.”

When asked what makes his Evergreen album resonate with fans, Jaywon said, “I believe the album’s appeal comes from its timeless themes of love, resilience, and personal growth. These are emotions and experiences that everyone can relate to at different points in their lives. The melodies and lyrics are also relatable, which makes it something fans can always come back to.”

Offering advice to young artistes on navigating success and fame, Jaywon remarked, “They should stay true to themselves and their vision. Success and fame can be overwhelming, but it’s important to remember why you started making music in the first place. It’s also crucial to embrace both the highs and lows, as they are all part of the journey. Surround yourself with a supportive team and take time to focus on your craft. Don’t get too caught up in the noise of the industry; instead, prioritise your mental health and well-being.”

[Punch]

The Defence Headquarters, the nation’s military high command, addressed a press conference last week and announced that a new terrorist group has invaded the country from Niger Republic and Mali. Known as ‘Lukarawa’, the group has settled in Sokoto and Kebbi states, creating serious security challenges for the people and the security agencies. The military said the terrorists came after the military coup which toppled the civilian administration in Niger Republic in July 2023 and that they were able to enter Nigeria due to lack of effective border controls after the July coup.

Just last week, Lukarawa killed 15 people in Kebbi and there are reports of attacks on other villages, including imposing financial levies on the communities and stealing food crops and livestock. This has negative impacts on food production. Lukarawa is said to have links with ISWAP (Islamic State – West Africa or Willayat Garb Ifriqiya), the ruthless terrorist group that operates freely in the Sahel region and is responsible for mass killings and devastations in that region. Reports that the group is offering financial incentives to lure young Nigerians in Sokoto state into its fold are particularly jarring.

According to Edward Buba, director, DHQ media operations, who spoke to the journalists, prior to the military takeover in Niger, there were joint border operations between the Nigerian army and Nigerien security forces which had kept the terrorists at bay, but with the breakdown of the joint border operations in the aftermath of the coup, the borders have become more porous, less protected and less impregnable to the terrorists.

‘’The terrorists took advantage of the gaps in cooperation between both countries and exploited difficult terrains to make incursions into remote areas in some Northwestern states to spread their ideology,’’ Buba said. This must be a very serious problem for our military which has already been overburdened by over 15 years of fighting Boko Haram and other criminal groups across the country.

But what caused the ‘’gaps in the cooperation between both countries’’ and how does that relate with the need for our president to speak after a long and careful deliberation? In July 2023, a group of military officers overthrew Niger’s democratically elected government, creating shocks, apprehensions and panics across the ECOWAS sub-region. President Bola Tinubu had just taken over as the chairman of ECOWAS, and within days, the regional body hurriedly announced a raft of sanctions on Niger, the strictest the bloc has ever imposed on an errant member.

They included closure of all borders with Niger; suspension of financial transactions and freezing of the country’s assets. As if these were not enough, ECOWAS went further to issue an ultimatum to the junta to restore constitutional order and reinstate the ousted president, Mohammed Bazoum, within one week or face other measures, including military intervention. President Tinubu made the announcements in his capacity as the new ECOWAS chairman, although he was in office as president for only six weeks. His election as president coincided with Nigeria’s turn to head the body.

Soon after the sanctions were announced, the military leaders of Niger aligned with the three countries that had earlier fallen under military putsch (Mali; Burkina Faso and Guinea) and called off ECOWAS’ bluff by breaking away from the bloc and cutting off all military and diplomatic relations with Nigeria. The juntas vowed to collectively fight whatever military intervention Nigeria and ECOWAS were contemplating.

It was an unexpected turn of events for Nigerians who had just been plunged into a serious economic crisis by the new administration. From all walks of life and every corner of the federation, people were quick to advise Tinubu not to go to war with Niger and its allies. Humiliated, Abuja then launched a flurry of diplomatic activities to try to convince the régime in Niamey to release the ousted civilian president who was said to be under house arrest. Nigeria has never been this disgraced.

Eventually, good sense prevailed; ECOWAS ate its words and Tinubu learned his lessons in Diplomacy 101. There was no military intervention and the juntas are still in power till today. It is the biggest diplomatic embarrassment that we ever suffered since the killing of Ken Saro-Wiwa in 1995. Obviously, Tinubu was not well briefed on the potential implications and outcomes of the sanctions he announced. He did not even have a cabinet in place and did not even receive some counsel from foreign relations experts in the country before he plunged into the ECOWAS debacle.

Even during the presidential campaigns that lasted from early January 2022 till the election in February 2023, foreign policy was not a strong suit of any of the presidential candidates. As a leading candidate, Tinubu had no foreign policy adviser and because he did not even give press interviews or appear in presidential debates, very little or nothing was known of his strength in foreign affairs. And so, when he emerged as ECOWAS chairman, it was clear that he was not prepared for the diplomatic challenges ahead.

The break-up of military cooperation between Nigeria and Niger Republic due to the hasty announcement of sanctions by President Tinubu last year has now led to the incursions of new terrorist groups into the country. This is why it is important for leaders to be deliberate, careful and calculated before they make pronouncements. A president’s words are powerful and they matter.

As Benjamin Disraeli, former UK Prime Minister (1804 – 1881), said ‘’with words, we govern men’’, a leader should talk with dignity, charisma, self-respect and respect for his audience. Rushing to impose sanctions on a new military régime in Niger and threatening military reprisal against the junta was an act of recklessness for which we are now paying with open borders and terrorist invasions. A month after Muhammadu Buhari took office in May 2015, he went on a visit to Niger, Chad and Mali, discussed bilateral cooperation and cemented military collaboration and border security with them. That helped a lot.

We have to do everything to prevent Lukarawa from becoming another Boko Haram – in size and the magnitude of destruction they inflict on Nigerians -, and as a first step, Tinubu should re-engage the Nigerien authorities and restore military cooperation and border control with them. I’m surprised that President Tinubu was quick to travel out to Saudi Arabia this weekend to work with Arab leaders to resolve the Israeli-Gaza conflict, instead of working with other ECOWAS leaders to reach out to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to resolve this security situation in our country. Talk of wrong priorities!

No one disputes the fact that many problems currently confronting Nigeria’s judiciary are caused by a few bad eggs in the system as it is in many other organizations. If those few bad eggs are not quickly expelled or aggressively beaten into line, the cancer they have attracted into that arm of government in the last couple of years will soon quickly spread all through the system.

What this suggests is that the greatest problem facing the Nigerian judiciary today is not the continuing recklessness of the so-called bad eggs but the apparent lack of courage and sincerity of those at the top to hold the bull by its horn and call everyone to order. The implication of this is that the posture of the National Judicial Council NJC which is empowered to regulate the judiciary is inadvertently increasing the bad eggs.

Whenever a judge is accused of corruption, the NJC finds some technicalities for giving one of its own a soft landing. It is worse if the accused is quite high up in the system. Only 2 days ago, the media was replete with reports on the recommendation of the NJC for two senior judges, T. E. Chukwuemeka Chikeka, Chief Judge of Imo State, and Hon. Kadi Babagana Mahdi, Grand Kadi of Yobe State to compulsorily retire from service for age falsification.

With the aid of false affidavits, Chikeka has been illegally in office since 2021 while that of Mahdi has been for as long as 12 years. It is good that the NJC has eventually stopped them and directed that they refund salaries earned for the periods. It is however alarming that the Grand Kadi of a state can be illegally in office for 12 years before the NJC gets to act. Even at that, is retirement the punishment for the offence of forgery committed by the 2 senior judges?

Of course, because it is not so, many more judges are likely to commit same offence that ends up with retirement. Indeed, that has been the case for no less than the last decade. For public education, let’s name a few here. In 2013, it was Shadrack Nwanosike the then Acting Chief Judge of Abia state who had to be shown the way out because of age falsification. In 2016 it was the turn of Idris M J Evuti and Tanko Yusuf Usman of the Niger state high court.

In 2018, it was Joshua E Ikede of the Delta state high court; followed in 2020 by 3 senior judges, Francis Aboki Acting President, Imo State Customary Court of Appeal, Shu’aibu Talba, Grand Kadi of Yobe state and Abdulkareem Babatunde Abdulrasaq of Osun State High Court. Perhaps Nigeria would have been better off if we had listened to lawyers who much earlier called for the prosecution of judges involved in age falsification. As the famous Fred Agbaje and Onyekachi Ubani, the then chairman of Ikeja branch of the Nigerian Bar Association once said, retirement is not enough punishment because falsification of age is a criminal offence.

There is doubt if those who felt otherwise still feel so now. For example, legal luminary Itse Sagay had argued that in such a case, a judge’s loss of honour and integrity would suffice. “Let him go and savour the disgrace that he has been thrown in” was how Sagay summed it up but something more drastic is needed now to keep the judiciary going especially in view of certain recent events. In 2019, for instance, there was the interesting case brought against the then Acting Chief Justice of Nigeria, Tanko Muhammad.

Whereas not many expected the case to succeed no matter its facts, the hard posture of the presiding judge, Justice Danlami Senchi of the FCT high court attracted more public interest. In the case, a 46-year-old citizen, Tochi Michael had the audacity to state that Justice Tanko Muhammad had reduced his age by 3 years. The case was dismissed case after Justice Senchi made the following statements. a) that the plaintiff did not disclose much further information about himself, b) that the suit was commenced by way of originating summon instead of writ of summons and c) that the plaintiff did not specify the special interest he had in the suit.

Justice Senchi also imagined that the attitude of the claimant counsel Melkizadeck Zaro was nothing but to scandalize, malign and destroy the person of the CJN and the entire judiciary. Consequently, he ordered the registrar of the Supreme Court to commence disciplinary action against the claimant counsel. The judge then awarded a N10 million fine against the claimant which must be paid within 3 weeks to serve as a deterrent to others.

Was the plaintiff not actually unwise to have openly faced the same Tanko Muhammad that the entire NJC could not stop from wrongly presenting himself to be sworn as Acting CJN against due process? However, no one said anything about the plaintiff’s claim that before Justice Tanko Muhammad became a judicial officer, all his records including WAEC showed that he was born in 1950 and not 1953. The NJC needs sincerity not technicalities to help Nigeria get out of the confusion she has been plunged into by a few reckless judges.

To start with, many citizens have been wondering for some time now about the real reason for the creation of the federal high court. If it was not to get a body that would counter every move by the state high court, then it is time to promptly take a closer look at how both are operating and set clearer guidelines for the courts to be used for the greater good of the nation. Otherwise, the current posture in which each of them gives counter orders to parties before them would sink the judiciary sooner than later.

It is indeed dangerous to see judges stopping certain societal organizations from performing duties assigned to them by the constitution. It is not funny that many people can no longer predict how the judiciary in Nigeria these days goes about determining two political cases with similar facts. A good example is the decision of the Supreme Court in 1999 that took cognisance of the fact that due to party supremacy – a power given to political parties by the constitution, the judiciary should stay away from internal matters of political parties.

It would actually help the party system to grow. But today, there are courts in the country which do nothing else but conscientiously resolving internal issues of political parties. How come those cases are always assigned to them by heads of courts? In other words, the judges and their supervisors require the stern attention of the NJC and the sooner such attention is given the priority it deserves, the better for us all. There is also the need to remind the judiciary that in many cases before our courts we don’t just have a plaintiff and a defendant, we also have the interest of society.

It is therefore not enough to make pronouncements that can destabilize society. Painfully, this has been happening for some time now. Unknown to the judiciary, that lack of care for the state of the country is part of why people have become hypercritical of judicial officers. These days, it is as if judges have no right to have children and other relations. In fact, it is as if they are not human, if they attend any function it is criticized; if they smile, it is a bigger concern, all because virtually no one trusts them these days.

Judges must therefore return to their respected position of old so that people can remember that they too need welfare. The point to be made therefore is that we all have a role to play to return our judiciary to the good old days of Kayode Eso, Chukwudifu Oputa, Lawal Uwais, Otutu Obaseki, Adolpus Karibi Whyte etc. Whereas the conduct of some judges can easily attract ample criticism of our judiciary, there is complete silence about the elephant in the room.

Why can’t our judiciary as an arm of government have its own budget for capital allocation? Why does another arm buy cars and build houses for judges? If our judges are not independent in these matters, they won’t be in others either. So, let’s help the judiciary to get out of bondage while urging our judges to be agents of true national development.

*INEC postpones collation to 12 noon
*… uploads over 92% of results

Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa of Ondo state and the candidate of the All Progressive Congress is leading in all the 15 local governments so far declared by INEC.

Akure North

APC – 14451

PDP – 5787

Registered Voters – 87293

Accredited Voters – 21608

Total Valid Votes – 20942

Rejected Votes – 648

Total Votes Cast – 21590

Okitipupa

AAPC – 26,811

PDP – 10,233

Total Registered Voters – 126,021

Valid Votes – 37,597

Rejected Votes – 858

Accredited voters – 38,814

Total Votes cast – 38,455

Collation postponed

After the announcement of the two local government area, the collation was adjourned till 12 noon, today.

The remaining local government areas yet to be announced are Ese Odo, Ilaje and Odigbo

Earlier…

The collation officer, Prof Olayemi Akinwunmi, said that the collation of the remaining five council areas will resume by 5 am today (Sunday).

Prof Akinwunmi, who announced the recess, said it is to allow for the arrival of results from the remaining local governments.

According to him “We have five more local governments but we are going to take our recess now until 5 am to receive some receive from Akure North, Okitipupa and Odigbo, then Ilaje and Eseodo. We resume 5 am for these local governments,”
Meanwhile, suspected thugs reportedly fired gunshots sporadically at Ofosu in ldanre Local Government Area to scare voters.

Sources said the thugs stormed the village early, yesterday, before the commencement of the election, firing gunshots.

The incident, it was learnt, caused panic, forcing people to stay indoors to avoid being hit by stray bullets.

A community leader, who spoke to newsmen, said: “We don’t know who they were but they were firing gunshots into the air in some parts of the village since morning. Ofosu is an Ondo village close to Benin in Edo State. There is no casualty, but people in the village are staying indoors.”

APC sent thugs to Idanre —Akingbaso

Reacting to the incident, deputy governorship candidate of the PDP, Mr Festus Akingbaso, expressed concerns over the alleged infiltration of some villages in Idanre by hoodlums.

Akingbaso, who spoke shortly after casting his vote at Imikan Ward 02, Unit 008, Idanre, commended INEC for the timely arrival of voting materials.

He, however, alleged: “Information reaching me is that the majority of the villages are filled with thugs allegedly brought in by the APC.

“At the moment, all the villages are occupied with thugs. Villages like Ofosu, Omifunfun and Ala are occupied.

“There is a place called Igbepo where suspected thugs are in their numbers in Idanre Local Government Area.
“An incident happened in Ofosun where suspected thugs broke into the house of a party member to prevent him from voting. We were informed that there were plans not to allow people in the villages to vote. I have reported the matter to the DPO and DSS.”

APC reacts

Reacting, Ondo APC spokesperson, Mr Steve Otaloro, absolved his party of involvement in any crime and demanded a thorough investigation into the allegations.

Otaloro said: “I am in APC situation room right now. The person you mentioned is the deputy governorship candidate to Agboola Ajayi of the PDP. And if you recall PDP had a press conference two days ago alleging that the kind of violence that happened in that place was by APC.”

When contacted, Police spokesperson, Funmi Odunlami, said the incident had not been reported to the state police command.

DSS nabs suspected vote trader

However, operatives of the Department of State Services, DSS, yesterday, arrested a suspected vote trader with bags of money.

The suspect was arrested with bags of money at Ward 4, Polling Unit 007 outside St. Stephen’s Primary School in Akure, Ondo State.

He was apprehended with two bags of money meant to induce voters.

Speaking on the matter, a former lawmaker, who represented Akoko North East Local Government in the state House of Assembly, Mr Rasheed Olalekan, confirmed that there was vote buying.

Olalekan, who spoke at Ward 01, unit 10, Ikare-Akoko, said: “There was no case of snatching of ballot boxes like we used to experience in previous elections. They were buying votes for N15,000 per vote and you know PDP doesn’t have such money. PDP can’t even offer N2,000.”

On the conduct of the election, he said:”The turnout was impressive.”

No fewer than 30 military checkpoints were mounted from Akure to Oke- Agbe, in Akoko North West area of the state.

Also, in Ondo Central Senatorial District, security agencies including the Army, police and NSCDC mounted rock blocks to frisk commuters plying areas.

Some travellers coming into Ondo State through Ile-Oluji-Oke-Igbo and Boluwaduro areas were prevented from gaining entry.

Exercise peaceful

Although the exercise was peaceful and orderly in some areas, vote trading was openly done by the major parties.

The large turnout of voters in the Northern senatorial districts was a sequel to the cash inducements given to them by the party’s agents.

However, reports from both the central and southern senatorial districts showed that the turnout of voters was low.

Voters were given between N25,000 and N30,000 each with party leaders storming polling units with cash to induce voters.

INEC officials arrived early with voting materials while BVAS worked perfected in many of the polling units visited in the four council areas in Akoko, Owo, Akure South, Idanre and Ondo West council areas.
Journalists were delayed for hours by some military personnel, who insisted that they needed orders from above before allowing them passage despite showing them the INEC accreditation.

l’m satisfied — Aiyedatiwa

Commenting on the exercise, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, who is the candidate of the APC, said he was satisfied with the conduct of the election.

Aiyedatiwa, who spoke after casting his vote at Polling Unit 5, Ugbo Ward 4, in Ilaje Local Government Area at 8:50 a.m, expressed optimism about the seamless conduct of the process.

The governor commended the organisation and efficiency at polling stations, noting that the process was both orderly and transparent.

Aiyedatiwa said: “Election was encouraging to see the exercise going smoothly here. I am hopeful that this is reflective of the experience across the state.”

He commended security agencies for their effective handling of potential threats during the exercise, stating that Ondo State is one of the most peaceful states in Nigeria.

He said:”We have consistently conducted peaceful elections over the years, and I am confident this one will be no different.”

The governor also commended INEC, expressing confidence in the transparency of the process.

Aiyedatiwa acknowledged the timely arrival of officials at his polling unit, but he stated he could not confirm the situation in other locations.

Poll was peaceful —Interior Minister, Tunji-Ojo

On his part, Interior Minister, Mr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, lauded INEC for conducting a peaceful and credible governorship election in Ondo State.

Tunji- Ojo told newsmen after casting his vote at Ward 03, unit 17 Court Hall/Igafo/Araoye in Akoko North West council area of the state.

He also commended INEC officials for arriving early for the exercise.

He said: “INEC has been fantastic so far. I got calls as early as 7am that they were already in the polling unit. The preparedness seems to be top-notch.

“Akoko North-West is never a troublesome place. In the 2023 elections, there was no cancellation of any polling unit. In the 2024 by-election, there was none; in 2019, there was none.

“We are peaceful people. We believe in democratic tenets. We allow people to come and cast their votes. We allow people to decide.’’

Rep Ehindero lauds INEC

Also, the lawmaker representing Akoko North-East/North-West Federal Constituency, Mr lfe Ehindero, expressed satisfaction with the orderly conduct of the voting process.

Ehindero commended INEC for ensuring a smooth and transparent election after casting his vote at Oyin/Oge Ward 4, Unit 2, Oyin Akoko in Akoko North-East/North-West Federal Constituency.

He expressed confidence in the APC and its candidate, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, to deliver impactful leadership and sustained development for the state.

He said:”We are here to build a better future for our people. I am optimistic about the choice Ondo State is making today. I encourage everyone to remain peaceful, cooperative, and vigilant throughout the process.”

Ajayi expresses disappointment

But PDP candidate, Ajayi, expressed dissatisfaction with the electoral process.
Ajayi spoke after voting at his Apoi Ward 11, Unit 004 at RCM Idumado Quarters Kiribo in Ese-Odo Local Government Area of the state.

He said: “The system has been compromised. Sadly, INEC can’t conduct elections well in one state. BVAS isn’t working, it took about 10 minutes to capture me.

“I think it is deliberate on the part of INEC and the REC, Mrs Oluwatoyin Babalola and we’ve said this several times that the woman can’t be fair.

“I have had a series of complaints from across the state, people are complaining about vote buying. It is a very shameful exercise.”

PSC Records Incidents of Vote-Buying

The Police Service Commission (PSC) said on Saturday that it’s monitors recorded some instances of vote buying at some polling centres during the Ondo State governorship election.

Recall that the PSC deployed staff to monitor the conduct of police officers in line with its constitutional mandate of checking and ensuring there was no Police misconduct during elections.

A statement by PSC issued by its spokesman, Ikechukwu Ani however lamented that vote buying reared it’s ugly head at the Ondo election.

He said “There were, however, reports of pockets of vote buying in some voting centres, which have become a recurring issue in elections in the country”

While commending security personnel deployed for the election in the state, he said, The PSC expressed its satisfaction with the performance of the security personnel who policed the Ondo State governorship election held today !Saturday.

“The Commission staff monitors reported that the security officers, particularly the police, arrived at voting centres on time and fulfilled their constitutional responsibility of securing the election space.
“The Commission monitors noted that the police officers were polite and civil but firm in the conduct of their electoral duties.

“DIG Sylvester Abiodun Alabi, Deputy Inspector General of Police in charge of Force CID and who oversaw the security management of the election, ensured a seamless deployment of security personnel, with Commissioners of Police in charge of all the Local Government Areas.

“He was assisted by other senior police officers, including the AIG Zone 7, AIG Benneth Igwe, the Ondo State Commissioner of Police, CP Abayomi Oladipo Peter, and Olatunji Disu, CP of the Federal Capital Territory.

“PSC monitors reported that the election security was generally credible and above average and has received commendation from the Civil Society Situation Room.

“Members of the Situation Room also commended the Commission for its proactive oversight of police conduct during elections.”

On its part, Police Service Commission, PSC, said it recorded some instances of vote buying at some polling centres.

A statement by PSC issued by its spokesman, Ikechukwu Ani, lamented that vote buying was a factor during the exercise.

He said: “There were, however, reports of pockets of vote buying in some voting centres, which have become a recurring issue in elections in the country”

Speaking on the conduct of the election, two observer groups, Yiaga Africa and CDD-EAC, in their preliminary reports decried vote-trading.

Yiaga Africa said it deployed 300 stationary observers to 300 polling units across the 18 LGAs, noting that there was widespread vote-buying.

In its preliminary report, Messrs Ezenwa Nwagwu and Cynthia Mbamalu, Director of Programmes for Yiaga Africa, said the election began “calmly and orderly, demonstrating citizens’ interest in participating peacefully.”

It, however, commended operatives of the Department of State Security (DSS) for “apprehending an individual allegedly involved in vote trading at the St. Stephen Polling Unit in Ward 4, Akure.”

The report reads: “As Yiaga Africa reported in its pre-election statement, the lead-up to the elections was relatively peaceful. On election day, the process began calmly and orderly, demonstrating citizens’ interest in participating peacefully.

“Yiaga Africa observed widespread occurrence of vote buying across several polling units, which is becoming a permanent feature of our electoral process. We strongly condemn this practice, as it contributes to electoral corruption and political inequality.’’

Observers

On its part, the CDD Election Analysis Centre, CDD-EAC said the election was fraught with irregularities such as voter inducement in some council areas.

In a statement by its Lead, CDD-EAC Observation Mission Ondo, and Director, CDD-West Africa, Professor Victor Adetula and Dr Dauda Garuba, they lamented that vote trading was prevalent in some areas like Okitipupa and Odigbo council areas.

The group said: “CDD-EAC notes a lot of instances of vote buying In Okitipupa LGA, Ward 09, Unit 003 (Irowa, Ilutitun 3), voters were solicited for their votes, with APC allegedly offering N10,000 per voter and PDP N3,000. In Odigbo LGA, Ward 01, Unit 001 (Oja Baale, Agbabu), reports of vote-buying were noted, with APC allegedly offering N10,000 and PDP N3,000 per voter.’’

[Vanguard]

Chidimma Adetshina, the newly crowned Miss Universe Nigeria, has made history by becoming the first runner-up at the 73rd Miss Universe pageant.

The grand finale of the Miss Universe 2024 beauty pageant ended in Mexico City on Sunday morning, with Miss Denmark Victoria Kjaer Theilvig taking home the crown.

Theilvig defeated Adetshina in the final, while contestants from Bolivia, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina, Puerto Rico, Russia, Chile, Thailand, Canada and Peru also made it to the top 12.

Chidimma’s journey to the top was remarkable. She impressed judges and the audience with her thoughtful answers on diversity and human respect.

Initially, she made it to the top 30 finalists and gradually rose to the top five contenders, ultimately securing the top two spots alongside Theilvig.

Theilvig, however, took over the crown from Miss Universe 2023 Sheynnis Palacios of Nicaragua.

Chidimma’s feat means she is the first Nigerian woman to take the second spot — following in the footsteps of Agbani Darego was a contestant at Miss Universe 2001.

Darego became the first Nigerian to place among the top 10 semi-finalists, finishing seventh overall.

Chidimma’s path to Miss Universe was not without controversy. Born to a Nigerian father and Mozambican mother, she faced criticism and withdrew from the Miss South Africa pageant due to her nationality.

However, Silverbird Group, organisers of Miss Universe Nigeria, invited her to participate, and she was crowned the pageant’s winner.

Recently, Chidimma revealed she waited seven years to be able to walk the Miss Universe stage.

“Win or not I am so proud of myself and filled with so much joy and fulfilment for I am about to accomplish what once seemed impossible. I envisioned this moment and I’m about to make it a reality,” she had said.

“This journey hasn’t been easy for me mentally and emotionally. The tears, the pain, the trauma. The days I felt like giving up, the days I felt unworthy and undeserving, however I refuse to let anyone or anything dim my vision.

“This achievement is not just mine but it’s for NIGERIA, it’s for AFRICA. Your support and encouragement has been the fuel to my fire.”

[TheCable]

First, a caveat is in order. The complete budget that the Federal Government (FG) is proposing for 2025 is not yet in the public domain, which means a full appraisal cannot be done yet. For now, we have just two things. One, an outstanding and record-breaking figure of N47.9 trillion, announced as the sum that the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved on Thursday for the proposed federal budget for next year. Two, a three-year budget framework and strategy paper—the 2025 to 2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)/ Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP)—which was approved by FEC on Thursday and published on the website of the Budget Office of the Federation on Friday.

Though it provides a fair indication of what is to come, the MTEF/FSP is not as detailed as a budget proposal. Also, the MTEF has to be approved by the National Assembly before the proposed budget can be presented by the president to legislators for consideration. Between the transmission and the approval of the MTEF and the presentation of the proposed budget, many things can change, and indeed certain things do change. So, nothing is cast in stone yet. However, there is enough in the 70-page document to give us some idea about how the mind of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration is working in terms of resource mobilisation and allocation in the next three years. The document also provides a window into budget performance for the whole of 2023 and for the first eight months of 2024. We thus have some reasonable materials that can be used to examine the immediate past and peep into the immediate future.

The MTEF/FSP contains more details than the headline figures that have been splashed in the media on the yet-to-be–unveiled proposed budget. I will share some of these additional details before offering my initial thoughts on the proposed budget and related issues. The document shows that FG intends to allocate the record N47.9 trillion expenditure in this order: N4.26 trillion to statutory transfers (including to the three development commissions recently created for the North West, the South East, and the South West); N13.61 trillion for capital expenditure; N14.21 trillion for non-debt recurrent expenditure; and N15.81 trillion for debt service. FG hopes to fund the budget by raising N34.82 trillion in revenue (N19.60 trillion as oil revenue and N15.22 trillion as non-oil revenue). And it hopes to bridge the N13.08 trillion gap between proposed expenditure and projected revenue through new borrowings of N9.22 trillion, multilateral loans of N3.55 trillion and privatisation proceeds of N312.33 billion.

I am sure some of the issues are jumping out at you already. But we should not get ahead of ourselves. In this preliminary intervention, I intend to make three broad points, drawing on what we can glean from the MTEF/FSP about the performance of previous budgets for the 20 months between January 2023 and August 2024 and what can pass for the visible outlines of the proposed budget for 2025.

The Obsession with Voodoo Projections Continues

Over time, we have developed a penchant for making wild revenue projections. We try to create a form of optical illusion, attempting to mask or minimise our fiscal challenges, and thereby reducing the hallowed activity of budget-making to a farce. But the joke is on us. This is a self-deceit with serious consequences. Because we enjoy lying to ourselves, projected revenues always end up falling short, while expenditure keeps soaring. The ensuring deficits not only exceed allowable limits but have to be plugged with more borrowing, including through unbudgeted, non-transparent and sometimes illegal overdrafts from the central bank.

Let’s be clear upfront: there is nothing wrong with proposing a N48 trillion budget if we can fund it. Given our size and needs, we probably can use double or triple that amount. But budget-making is not wishful thinking. For a start, revenue projections have to be realistic. There is nothing in our recent history to suggest that faithfully implementing a N48 trillion budget is faintly realistic. The approved revenue for the 2024 budget was N25.88 trillion but FG intends to raise N34.82 trillion in 2025. That is a 34.54% increase in revenue in one year. FG is not on track to generating its approved revenue for the current year. According to the MTEF, the Federal Government generated only N12.74 trillion as revenue between January and August this year. If we assume a consistent rate, FG will rake in N19.11 trillion in 2024, which will represent a 26% revenue shortfall of approved revenue. There is N6.2 trillion windfall tax/exchange gain that may do the magic for 2024, but it was presented as a one-off, and as such cannot be the reason for shifting revenue projection from N25.88 trillion to N34.82 trillion between a year and the following one.

But this actually becomes more interesting when you look at the breakdown of the projected revenues. In 2025, FG dreams of raising N19.60 trillion or 56% of its revenues from the oil sector and N15.22 trillion or 43% of total revenues from non-oil sources. On a pro-rata basis, the 2024 oil revenue underperformed by 25%: actual revenue of N4.09 trillion for eight months against pro-rated budget of N5.45 trillion. The total oil revenue expected in the 2024 budget is N8.18 trillion, a target which in all probability would be missed by at least a quarter. If FGN’s records show that oil revenue fell short in the current year, where then is the confidence to project a 140% increase in oil revenue next year gushing out from? Non-oil revenue has given the FG more joy in recent times, consistently outperforming oil revenue since 2020. In 2023, non-oil revenue surpassed budgeted amount by 34% and in the first eight months of 2024, it exceeded the pro-rated budget by 60%. It would have been understandable if the very rosy tint had been tilted towards non-oil revenues.

The curious bigging up of the contribution of the oil sector to government revenues shows up in two other areas. The MTEF projects that N51.87 trillion will accrue to the Main Pool of the Federation Account in 2025. Out of this, N40.42 trillion is projected as Net Oil Revenue (after costs, deductions and derivation). Meanwhile, N16.89 trillion was approved as the net oil revenue for the Federation in 2024, meaning that the net oil revenue for 2025 is expected to increase by 139% over the 2024 figure. There must be something those who made the projection know that is obscured from the rest of us.

The second possible driver of this strange confidence is that Nigeria will produce 2.06 million barrels of oil per day in 2025. This is a good aspiration to have. However, it looks quite dreamy given where we are. Oil production cannot be simply turn on like a light switch. Even if oil theft is completely eliminated, it will take more time to get back up to 2mbpd. But assuming that it is possible, those assuming the additional revenues from the extra barrels may be missing a few points: the fact that JV assets have been transferred to the national oil company in return for dividends on its profit; the thousands of barrels that have been pledged against different loans; and the fact that the private oil companies actually get more share of total oil produced because of the shift in the structure of oil production in Nigeria. In any case, actual oil output has consistently lagged benchmark oil output since 2013, a point well illustrated by Figure 5.2 on page 24 of the MTEF/FSP. Another interesting projection is that inflation which rose to 33.88% in October 2024 will drop to 15.75% in 2025. We need to give a better impression than we are just plugging in numbers that catch our fancy.

The Vicious Cycle of Debt and Debt Service

The debt noose keeps tightening and there appears to be no spirited effort to throw off what has become a millstone around our neck. It is as if we have made peace with our recent lot or that we think we can simply borrow our way out of our fiscal hole. In 2025, FG plans to borrow N12.77 trillion as part of its deficit financing plan: N3.55 trillion in multilateral loans and N9.22 trillion in new borrowings (made up of N7.4 trillion in domestic loans and N1.8 trillion in foreign loans). If we go ahead with the loans, that’s extra layer of debt on the total public debt stock of N134.3 trillion (as at June 2024). And by the way, one of the items approved by FEC on Thursday was another loan of $2.2 billion to finance the 2024 budget that should end in a few weeks. The convenient argument that our debt-to-GDP ratio is still manageable is losing its shine, as our current public debt is more than half our projected nominal GDP of N236.3 trillion for 2024. This is above our self-imposed limit of 40% as debt-GDP ratio.

Besides, the debt-to-GDP metric is of limited utility to a country like ours. Public debts are not paid or serviced with GDP but with government revenues. The quantum of resources devoted to paying and servicing debts has implications for the ability of the government to continue to function and its capacity to meet the developmental needs of the populace. In 2025, a princely sum of N15.81 trillion or about a third of the proposed expenditure of N47.9 trillion is apportioned to debt service alone. In fact, debt service is the biggest line item in the proposed budget for 2025. Said another way: we are budgeting to spend more on servicing debt than on any other group of items in 2025. Debt service is 116% of capital expenditure (N13.61 trillion), amounts to 193% of personnel expenses (N8.19 trillion), and equals 371% of statutory transfers (N4.26 trillion). The proposed debt service for 2025 is also 45% of projected revenue of N34.82 trillion (and it is worth bearing in mind that revenue is likely to underperform while debt service may actually be higher than projected and so the actual percentage will probably be higher).

This last point bears emphasising. In 2023, N8.56 trillion was spent on debt service though the budgeted amount was N6.56 trillion, most likely because of the depreciation of the Naira. Following the same trajectory, sum of N5.51 trillion should have been incurred on debt service between January and August 2024 but N7.41 trillion, or 34% higher than the pro-rated amount, was expended within that period. We are on track to surpassing the N8.27 trillion budgeted for debt service for the whole year (this is apart from N223 billion meant for sinking fund which was not provided for in the first eight months of the year). The point is that the more we borrow, the more resources we will need to devote to paying the principal and the interest in subsequent years. And so, the vicious cycle continues. While a strategy to continue to borrow and spend may appear attractive in the short term, it amounts to hobbling the next generation with a legacy of debts.

Fiscal Expansionism Not Inevitable 

While some citizens and analysts have started querying the rosy assumptions behind the N47.9 trillion budget, some other Nigerians within and outside government will defend the budget. One of the arguments that will be made is that the record amount is just $28.18 billion. When compared with our previous budgets or the budgets of our peers with fewer population, that amount doesn’t look or sound so outrageous. This is fair point. But N47.9 trillion would not have come to $28.2 billion without the floating of the Naira (introduced by the current administration which is also benefitting from it through exchange gain, now a major item at FAAC). Also, concentrating on what the proposed amount exchanges for in dollars might be good for the sake of comparison but it ignores the key points about whether the assumptions are realistic or not, about whether we can fund the budget or not, and about how such a big budget comes with its own baggage.

The argument about the need to accommodate the newly agreed minimum wage and boost infrastructure to drive overall development is more convincing. But the data in the proposed budget does not support 37% increase in budgeted expenditure from one year to another. The MTEF shows that personnel budget is to rise from N5.39 trillion in 2024 to N8.19 trillion in 2025, an increase of N2.8 trillion or 52%. This is presumably to take care of the new minimum wage and other consequential adjustments. But that extra N2.8 trillion for personnel cannot be the reason for the entire N12.84 trillion added to the 2024 budget. Though the document makes a song and dance about increased infrastructure spending, the capital budget (exclusive of transfers) actually reduced slightly from N13.77 trillion in 2024 to N13.61 trillion in 2025. So, it is hard to justify adding so much to the 2024 budget, which itself is unlikely to be fully implemented.

There is a place for ambitious and expansionary budget (especially when the economy is depressed and the country can easily find the money to reflate the economy). But Nigeria is not in that good place. We are battling headline inflation close to 34% and food inflation of about 40%. We are at a place where we need to free Nigerians from suffocating inflation and where we desperately need to keep working towards, not away from, fiscal consolidation. We need to significantly reduce deficit (not just aiming for the 3% of deficit-to-GDP limit mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007) and reduce debts (not binge on debts or be hiding behind some vacuous lingo about sustainable debt).

There are some commendable efforts around blocking leakages and raising more revenues and some of them are yielding decent results already. We should do more of these. We need more fiscal discipline and, more importantly, we need stronger collaboration and coherence between the fiscal and the monetary sides of the economy. One side cannot be busy tightening while the other is needlessly expansionary. Such dissonance is counter-productive, and can only delay the needed rebound.

Like a pack of biscuits on the shelf beyond the expiry date, the country called Nigeria already expired in 2014 – 10 years ago! It therefore ought to be baked afresh.

That was the view of the convener of the Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF) and a former vice-chancellor of Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, Prof. Ango Abdullahi at a national conference on a home-grown model of the parliamentary system organised by the Home-Grown Parliamentary System Support Group (PSSG) in Abuja. PSSG is a group of 83 members of the House of Representatives, sponsoring three bills seeking the alteration of the 1999 Constitution to transition from the current presidential to a parliamentary system at all tiers of government.

Antecedents

Abdullahi wasn’t saying anything new. Prominent historian Prof. Banji Akintoye, worldwide leader of Yoruba Global Movement, ‘Ilana Omo Oodua’, who also doubles as chairman of the Nigerian Indigenous. Nationalities Alliance for Self-Determination (NINAS) is on record as describing the present political arrangement in Nigeria as fraudulent and campaigning for the peaceful secession of the Yoruba from Nigeria. He has formalised his campaign by submitting a petition to the United Nations (UN).

Akintoye even made a solemn declaration after his group’s 2020 outing: “For the avoidance of doubt, the NINAS proclamation of constitutional dispute on December 16, 2020, terminated the life of the fraudulent 1999 Constitution of Nigeria and therefore restored our sovereignty that was confiscated by that constitution. What we are doing today is to outline the processes and modality for the necessary and orderly transition to our full self-determination and sovereignty in the World. Therefore we hereby call on the peoples of our alliance territory to rise to the challenge of shaking off the shackles and manacles hitherto imposed on them by the defunct 1999 constitution.”

As if that was not “treasonous” enough, last month, a prominent Yoruba rights agitator, Sunday Adeyemo, alias Sunday Igboho, submitted another petition at 10 Downing Street, London, calling for international recognition of the Yoruba people’s quest for self-determination.

On the home front, Chief Edwin Clark and Chief Ayo Adebanjo have, for years, campaigned for the ditching of the 1999 Constitution which they describe as a big swindle imposed on Nigerians by the retreating military government in 1999. Another member of the nonagenarian club, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, former secretary-general of the Commonwealth, has been making strident calls for the renegotiation of a new constitution in a peaceful way before the wave of separatist agitations become a storm. He particularly describes the presidential system as unsuited to the temperament and experience of Nigerians.

Nnamdi Kanu’s agitation for the actualisation of the Republic of Biafra for the Igbo people of the present day southeast geopolitical zone through his organisation, Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB), is well known.

Changing Tide

In government circles, particularly in Abuja, It used to be anathema to mention anything about a renegotiation of the terms of the Nigerian union in certain quarters without exposing oneself to the possible eventuality of losing a tooth or two. It is gratifying that the issue of a total overhaul of the apparatus of the Nigerian union is an idea whose time has come.

The current economic hardship has contributed its quota in making us take a hard look at ourselves and wonder if we couldn’t have made a better use of the independence we won from the British in 1960.

But here we are. In intellectual discourse, there is no right time or wrong time. Certain intervening variables may have impinged on the ability of certain interlocutors to perceive empirical reality from the same prism as their fellow citizens. With time, however, as governments come and governments go, it has become clear that we are only doing the same things the same old way and populating the land with mendicants who soon transmogrify into violent civilian armies waylaying us at the portals of our mansions.

It appears that a consensus has been reached that, no matter what happens, it is advisable to renegotiate the terms of our union as a nation, or go our separate ways in peace so that we can at least remain as friendly neighbours.

Love him or loathe him, the voice of the 86-year-old Prof Abdullahi is a very noteworthy one in Nigeria. The younger generation have him to thank for taking that trip down memory lane to remind us all that we have been living a lie.

Memory Lane

“Nigeria was born in 1914”, Abdullahi recalled. “It was a product of an Edict by the colonial officials that were largely military, in consultation with a few of our elders, about five or six of them – The Sultan of that period, the Shehu of Borno of that period, the Alaafin of Oyo of that period, the Obong of Calabar of that period, and other names, I have forgotten.

“The North was conquered in 1903. So, by 1914 the colonial masters from Britain wanted to solidify their gains so that they could more easily exploit the resources of the colony. That is how they sat down and decided that they would amalgamate the Lagos Colony and the South and the North into one country.

“The wife of Lord Frederick Luggard, the Governor General at that time, gave us the name Nigeria, a name derived from the “Niger Area”. In the Edict, it was very clear that we were being encouraged from various backgrounds to come together and build a country called Nigeria. And our leaders at that time agreed that we would try. But we were advised in the details of the Edict, that we should be monitoring progress over the years but the life of the Edict was 100 years.

“This meant that the Edict expired in 2014, which is 100 years after its formation. The question is that we are now in 2024. This kind of dialogue reminds us that we have a history that started in 1914. In the conclusion of that edict, it said that if we failed to build a country that we can call our own and be proud of, by the expiration of that period the various components that were in that amalgamation could go their separate ways.

“Go and check; that is what you will find. The edict tells us to either do what is right or if we can’t do what is right we can decide to go our separate ways,” declared Prof. Abdullahi.

Apparently dissatisfied with the pace of development in Nigeria since independence in 1960, the former vice-chancellor lamented that 64 years after, Nigeria can only boast of 3,000 megawatts of electricity for a population of over 200 million people. He said that Nigeria had failed to live up to the expectation of its founding fathers.

New Constitution?

Netizens have since taken over the debate. The ubiquitous commentators of the intemperate hue who always want to reduce every commentary on Nigeria to a tribal warfare, seem to have spared the elderly professor their usual flack. Abdullahi’s candid historical excursion appears to have given them some food for thought. However, there was a coterie of doubters who wondered why it had taken Prof Abdullahi so long to come to the party. “Is he taking this position because the presidency is now occupied by a southerner?” they ask.

In the coming days and months, I see the jaw-jaw among political leaders revving up tempo to such an extent that the 2027 elections may be conducted under a new constitution for the sake of Nigeria’s survival as one entity. I think the present generation of politicians would rather do that than bury Nigeria with the battlecry, “To your trenches, O Tribesmen!”

Politics is in many ways like religion. It thrives on a foolish expectation of paradise perennially approaching but forever elusive.  Take away the promise and prospect of eventual heaven and paradise and all religion falls flat. You dare not tell a devotee that heaven may not come or that the promised virgins may not be delivered as promised!

Politicians on their part are the eternal purveyors  of  an earthly  paradise. The promised land of every political manifesto is  a sort of fulfilled state, an ideal of the nation state only imagined by John Jacques Rousseau, Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. It is  a place where all the yearnings, desires wishes and needs of the ideal citizenry are met by an ever compassionate state ruled by good men and women. That is why every political realm quickly finds a slogan for its own definition of heaven on earth. Every active party man or woman is somehow an apostle of a new faith carrying the pocket book of a new theology, ready to recite you the catechism of the new Jerusalem.

The arrival time of a political paradise used to be long.  It is now shorter because the electorate have become inpatient in a digital sense. People now want the fulfillment of political promises in real time which means almost instantly. Forget the election cycle. Forget the generational vision and legacy crap. Bring us the goodies now now! Palliative rice and Indomie Noodles for all now. Helicopter cash transfers for millions right away. Money for one good pot of soup for today in exchange for our votes today. Keep your highways and flyovers for later. Give us ‘stomach infrastructure’ now now!.  

Even religious paradise has shortened its delivery and expectation time. Paradise is no longer only for the patient. Now, new generation pastors and transactional gospellers fast track things somehow. Prosperity and abundance of wealth must come now now! The microwave has entered the world of miracles and divine expectations. YouTube gathers the flock in one place at the push of a button on the keyboard and spreads the gospel worldwide while those at the receiving end just click and collect in millions of dollars.  Instant salvation. Immediate paradise and gratification delivered via your bank account!

In today’s Nigeria, President Tinubu and his APC friends are the merchants of the new wonder product called the “Renewed Hope Agenda”. It is the hope of an abundance of life and goodness to be delivered by the Tinubu government in the fullness of its time. We are told that the “Renewed Hope” Franchise belongs to the APC as a party. But the party manifesto makes no mention of this ‘renewed hope’ agenda. We are not told what it is. No one has yet unwrapped the package. Party people and regime friends just talk glibly about it. At other times, the ‘renewed hope’ is merely suggested in shy chants when the President is likely to be present. At such occasions, ‘renewed hope’ agenda spontaneously graduates into a song directed at the President: “On your mandate we shall stand…!” Once the President departs the venue, the chant is over, the choir dissolves and disperses into the anonymity of the rented crowd of political jobbers .

When you ask the lead choristers the content of the ‘renewed hope’ they just sang about, you are left empty-handed. No one seems to know what it is all about but everyone is expected to expect it! You ask endlessly from the marketers of the new gospel to be told what this ‘renewed hope’ is all about. There is no document that describes it or itemizes what we as an electorate should expect from this ‘renewed hope’ thing. We are just expected to believe and trudge along. A theology without a creed. Faith in things unseen and unknown!

Every respectable gospel builds an attractive paradise for its followers to aspire to: a garden of respite from our earthly toils, a place where there is no more sorrow, toil or even death. Every common person shall summon enough courage to look death in the face and ask: “Death, where is thy sting?” Believers  shall play and enjoy endlessly. Political utopias are similarly constructed as a combination of imagination and the wishful thinking of hapless voters. Since we are supposed to look forward to the arrival of “renewed hope” as a political utopia and kingdom, one should expect to learn its outlines. How many poor housing units will be delivered per state by ‘renewed hope’? How many new classrooms? How many new health centres? How many free bus rides to and from work? Will there be free food at feeding centres?  Will public schools be free of charge for the poor? Will bandits disappear from our highways? Will there be special prisons for kidnappers? Just what goodness will descend on us all courtesy of the “Renewed Hope Agenda?” Mr. “Renewed Hope”,  when shall be taste the next good soup?

In the absence of any of these concrete ‘better life’ prospects, to just promise us ‘renewed hope’ as a source of universal sweetness is somewhat suspicious and even fraudulent. Hope is not a place of succor. Hope is not a policy. It is not measurable Hope is not a destination of goodness nor is it a policy. Hope is a never land, an empty longing for things unseen and untouchable. Hope is a dream, a promise, a delusion of emptiness to feed the minds of the ignorant and foolish mob.

Every serious APC follower is now a “Renewed Hope Agenda” disciple and marketer..  The prime pontiffs are very loquacious, enviable and considerably wealthy citizens placed in strategic gate -keeper locations in the present order.  Mr. Godswill Akpabio is Senate President with one of the longest convoys around. Mr. Nyesom Wike is Minister of the Federal Capital Territory with a fleet of demolition bulldozers at his beck and call. Mr. Dave Umahi is Minister of Works with Alaskan highway projects that literally traverse the entire length of the country. My former friend Dele Alake has been catapulted from near destitute joblessness to Minister of Solid Minerals negotiating mining rights with Chinese mineral thieves and bandits all over the country. A man who looks permanently surprised and always clad in oversize suits in Minister of Finance.  In turn, Mr. Nuhu Ribadu is National Security Adviser who seems lately to be jostling for the job of minister of information by constantly singing the praise of the president at every stop. He was recently quoted as advocating national prayers to help chase away squads of bandits tormenting him and his men in waves of insecurity.

The better informed apostles of “Renewed Hope” have enough common sense to direct you to the policies of the Tinubu administration. We are told that the hardship spinoffs of the present policies are the vehicles of the “Renewed Hope Agenda”. The higher fuel prices, the astronomical exchange rates, the endless multiple taxes, the bandits and killers at every road junction and the high costs of basic food and sustenance items are meant to prepare us for life in the land of renewed hope. The few Nigerians who survive these hard times will be the ‘strong breed’ that will inhabit the place of ‘renewed hop’.

There may even be a religious angle to it all. Maybe after this period of famine and suffering shall follow a season of endless plenty! By a flip of divine intervention, all these agonies and suffering shall somehow end in praise. This may be the reason why recently, there was a rumoured plan to hold a nationwide prayer festival for divine intervention to alleviate the suffering in the land and turn it all into plenty,  abundance and praise.

No one can say convincingly that the president does not love Nigeria. He is working on the job he applied for. While we cannot deny the prevalence of hardship all over the land, there is also a need to acknowledge that this government has been quite busy doing the ordinary things that governments in these parts do.

Meetings are being held in Abuja every day on virtually every subject under the sun. The President has been setting up committees of all hues to seek for solutions to our economic problems as they rear their heads.  The big men and women of officialdom are perennially on the move in and around the country attending to busy schedules, arriving in very large shiny black SUVs carrying the same files that their predecessors clutched before they were recently sacked. The communiqués summarizing the results of the meetings are sometimes issued before the meetings take place!

Undeniably, some things have been achieved under this ‘ “Renewed Hope Agenda’ regime. We have reverted to the 1960 national anthem from the new one. We even got the entire National Assembly to convert into a choir that learnt and sang the old “new” anthem with microwave speed. The president has acquired a fresh ‘tokunbo’ luxury jet for his many trips abroad. In less than 18 months into his tenure, President Tinubu has thrown  out half a dozen of his lack lustre ministers and replaced them with another seven anonymous and even invisible ones. Hardly any day passes without the presidency announcing fresh high profile appointments by the president predictably from mostly one corner of the country.

In less than 18 months in office, this president has clocked more air miles than his predecessors even in the absence of a definite foreign policy direction.

On matters of hardship, the government has made noises in the direction of alleviating high food prices. Bags of rice and other grains have been ferried around the country to alleviate hunger but the masses still deny that they saw any rice. A few ministers and government big people have since set up rice warehouses and shops which are now doing lucrative business.

In some rice and palliative distribution centres, those who went out to scramble for rice and noodles to feed their families have ended up returning in body bags. The lucky ones returned with broken skulls from the scramble only to be told by the First Aid hospitals that basic medications are “out of stock”. Wise people no longer troop out to scramble for palliative rice or cash from big men. Please avoid dangerous rice and bad cash!

A plan to import food items at reduced tariffs is expected to begin yielding fruits soon. But the exchange rate of the Naira to the dollar to pay for the food import has worsened since the policy was announced. Worse still, the Central Bank has since jacked up interest rates so high that those who borrowed money to import low duty food items to fight hunger are themselves held to ransom by the banks. As a result, the envisaged relief of the imported food will be wiped off by the exchange rate  and high interest rates.

In the interim, hapless and impoverished citizens are being constantly enjoined to await the coming of the Tinubu “Renewed Hope” kingdom.

In recent weeks, APC pundits and chieftains have been trumpeting that things are getting better. For them, the ‘renewed hope’ agenda has begun to yield fruits. Tinubu is now “performing” even in the absence of any supporting data. Tinubu is just happening in spite of worsening inflation, more depressing living costs and worsening insecurity.

While the chosen few of the APC high priesthood are wallowing in opulent excess, the chorus out on the streets in all parts of the nation is a desperate cry of anguish . People are asking when and how the nation can get out of the present excruciating hardship. “Renewed Hope Agenda” is fast turning into an anthem of paradise for a few chosen apostles and a dirge or requiem for the majority.  Yet the dominant discourse and question out on the streets  is an open question:  when will the economy improve?

In politics, the approach of good times is signaled by the approach of the next election. As we inch towards 2027, there is bound to be an increase in the number of APC party faithful chanting the success of Tinubu’s policies. A great deal of these chants are based on political impulse rather than verifiable indicators in reality. Tinubu came to power with petrol pump price at less than N200. Renewed Hope agenda has hiked it to over N1,000. The Naira was exchanging for less than N500 to the dollar when Tinubu was sworn in last May. It is now hovering at over N1,700. Same degree of astronomical increases  apply to electricity tariff, the cost of every food item, basic drugs, cost of ground transportation, domestic and international  air fares.

Something new crept in from the recent campaigns of the American presidential election. Let us call it the Optimism Index. Simply put, it measures the degree to which the citizenry are optimistic that the nation is going in the right direction.  Throughout the length and breadth of the country, you hardly encounter any one who is ready to risk asserting that any aspect of life in today’s Nigeria is going in the right direction. The readiest response of people to government is a torrent of curses and abuses. It has become so bad that important traditional rulers ands religious leaders have appealed to citizens to stop cursing the nation’s leaders. The Ooni of Ife a fortnight ago appealed to citizens to desist from cursing our leaders. The Sultan of Sokoto followed the same pattern of appeal. Some religious leaders have sent out the same appeal.

We cannot content ourselves with either a sea of curses and abuses or a baseless insistence on progress with ‘renewed hope agenda’. Those interested in knowing when the economy will improve need to take a closer look at what has befallen us in just a little over a year of this ‘renewed hope’ administration. In principle, a reform policy is all well and good. No serious country can go on the way we have been. You could not sustain an economy on subsidies in most important sectors. But at the same time, no sensible government can afford to take off all of subsidies in so many diverse areas of essential goods and services simultaneously. To take off all subsidies at once and increase taxes, rates, tariffs  and charges on everything essential at once is like declaring a war on all the people. If they cannot protest and revolt, they will live a life of perennial curses on those who rule them.

I do not belong among those who insist that the “Renewed Hope Agenda” cannot and will not yid recovery and goodness. But our present  hardship did not come as a result of divine punishment. It is man made. It is the result of a reckless combination of thoughtless reflexes mistaken for policies. Any group of people who casually inflict this untidy cocktail of harsh measures on the same people within such a short space of time in the name of governance need to have their identity and sanity double checked.

Maybe, INEC should incorporate comprehensive mental health screening as part of the qualification for electoral offices.

The firing of Engr. Meyen Etukudo, the chief executive of Akwa Ibom State-owned electricity generating company, Ibom Power, by the state government last week caught many people unawares and generated quite a buzz in the industry. The sack order was contained in a press statement issued by the Secretary to the State Government, Mr. Enobong Uwah, Thursday night. It came shortly after Etukudo had issued a statement explaining that the power plant had shut down because its gas supplier, Savannah Energy, had discontinued supply of gas due to dispute over payments. The state was therefore thrown into darkness which has continued for three days now. ‘’This loss of gas supply coincided with a reported fault on the 132 KV Itu-Aba Transmission Line which transports power from the national grid in and out of the state, hence the state-wide outage’’, Etukudo stated, and concluded that Savannah Energy ‘’has remained adamant’’ during the discussions.

But Savannah Energy has publicly repudiated him, insisting in a public statement that the ‘’the power cut in Akwa Ibom State is entirely due to the reported fault in the 132 KVA Aba-Itu Transmission Line, which, unfortunately is preventing power from being transmitted into the state’’. A senior official of Savannah Energy told me that although gas supply to Ibom Power was discontinued momentarily for lack of payment, Savannah has since resumed supply, but the plants could not be re started because they are in a very bad shape. ‘’I think the former MD used Savannah as a smokescreen to cover the rots he left behind’’, added the official.

It is for this reason that the Board Chairman of Ibom Power, Engr Etido Inyang, tried unsuccessfully to dissuade Etukudo from issuing his statement because ‘’it didn’t reflect the true picture’’. But he too was adamant. Government officials therefore believe that the former CEO was just out to embarrass the governor; and because his standing before government was already weak; disengaging him was an easy decision. Meantime, the governor is so incensed that he may soon order a detailed financial audit into the affairs of the company and ‘’there’s a possibility that the EFCC may be called in given reports of corrupt practices the government has’’, according to an informed insider.

I have spoken to several people in government, Savannah Energy, Ibom Power Company (IPC) and the electricity industry and reviewed volumes of documents; I can confirm that Mr. Etukudo was sacked for a myriad of reasons, the power outage being the last straw. ‘’This is not just about the dispute between Savannah Energy and Ibom Power; he was let go for many reasons including gross act of insubordination to the government, incompetence and embarrassing decisions the management took in the years he was in office’’, a senior government official told me.

Etukudo joined IPC in 2016 with a Transmission background, but in all those years, there has not been an improvement in the performance of the company, according to its five-year audited financial statement. The government is also displeased at his management style. He refused to be answerable to the governor and his employers, Akwa Ibom Investment Corporation (AKICORP), which owns almost 100% of the company. ‘’Ibom Power has not rendered reports of stewardship to AKICORP and is yet to hold its first AGM. He has never briefed Gov. Umo Eno on the affairs of the company since he became governor’’, said a senior government official. The government is also dissatisfied with Etukudo for his inability to renegotiate the defective Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) which Ibom Power has with Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading Plc (NBET). This defective PPA, officials claim, is one of the reasons Ibom Power’s bottom line has been in the red in the eight years Etukudo led the company.

Another source said the government was also embarrassed by Etukudo’s habit of giving frequent press interviews and issuing press statements as well as his frequent foreign trips without approval from the Governor. On each occasion he travelled out, he would hand over the Company to a contractor who repairs the plant, sidestepping his executives. Early this year, Etukudo gave an interview accusing the state government of giving more money to Ibom Air, while neglecting Ibom Power; and boasted that if he had such support from government, he would turn around Ibom Power. ‘’But how could government continue to sink money into a leaking hole? Comparing Ibom Power to Ibom Air is a cheap blackmail, because while Ibom Air is growing rapidly, servicing its debts on time and will soon break even, Ibom Power has been falling deeper and deeper into debts’’, quipped a Government House Permanent Secretary official. Under Etukdo, the company defaulted in repayment of restructured loans to lenders, particularly Afrexim, thus making it impossible for other State entities like Ibom Air to access credit from Afrexim.

The state government also blames the ousted CEO for frustrating every genuine effort by Accugas, a subsidiary of Savannah Energy, and AKICORP to renegotiate a Gas Sales Agreement that supports the current industry realities and turning down every genuine effort to have discussions on the way forward. ‘’He has never been an honest party in the government’s effort to reengineer the electricity market in the State, a step that is required to take advantage of the reforms in the energy sector in the country’’, said an industry insider.

Ibom Power Company Limited was incorporated on January 15, 2001 as the pioneer independent electricity generation company. It has an operational plant at Ikot Abasi, with three turbines and combined installed capacity of 191 MW. The plant has never operated at full capacity and is currently operating at less than 50% of the installed capacity. The company is owned 99.99% by AKICORP and 0.01% by Globeleq Ibom Holdings BV, a South African company. Ibom Power has been poorly managed over the years and most recently gross operational inefficiency and management incompetence have been identified as its major weaknesses. The three turbines have never at any time been functional, resulting in unplanned downtime and loss of revenue. The lack of quality inspection and assurance has resulted in significant damage to the plant.

The Company has been making losses since inception, resulting in negative Net worth, with comfort letter being issued to the External Auditors to avert qualification of its financial statements. The Five-Year Financial Indices show a N4.23 billion loss in 2022; N5 billion loss in 2021; N20 million loss in 2019 and N6.5 billion loss in 2018. The financial statement for 2023 is being audited. In addition, the company is indebted to Accugas to the tune of $12.6m and indebted to Afrexim to the tune of $7.81M. The Bank obtained judgment, requiring payment in 14 days with 8% interest per annum on any unpaid amount. Ibom Power has since defaulted. Ibom Power is also indebted to Access Bank to the tune of N420 million. It defaulted on the restructured repayment plan reached with the bank in 2017. Both Afrexim and Access Bank hold a joint charge on IPC power plants.

The string of losses over the years has threatened the going concern of the Company. Ibom Power’s current and total liabilities exceed its current and total assets by N51 billion. A significant portion of the Company’s liability, representing 56% of its total liabilities, is owed to AKICORP, the parent company. Each year AKICORP issues a comfort letter to the external auditors that it would not demand repayment and that it also guarantees the going concern of the Company, without which IPC is insolvent and bankrupt.

Against the backdrop of the gross operational inefficiency, managerial incompetence and bleak financial position of the company, the government this year commissioned Savannah Energy to carry out a plant audit, the first in time in its 23-year history. I understand that the audit report was very harsh on the management of the company. It noted that the Plant is not in good shape due to poor maintenance. Plant availability is now significantly less than 50%; no managerial competency for power generation operations, resulting in avoidable gaps; poor maintenance culture, inadequate safety policies and absence of basic HSE compliance. The report also noted that the fire cooling system is damaged, resulting in hazardous operational environment. Inefficient operations manifests in collecting gas for two turbines when it can only evacuate power from one turbine, even when Accugas advised that this was an inefficient use of gas. IPC does not have an industry-best-practice Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with NBET, the reason it has not taken advantage of better terms of purchase by NBET. The current PPA is not even legally binding on NBET, according to a company executive.

When I called Etukudo this Saturday morning, he refused to comment and directed me to the press statement he issued. ‘’You are a brilliant journalist; read the statement I issued and tell me what is wrong with it’’, he told me. But when I pressed further, he retorted, ‘’the governor has been commissioning projects; have you heard him mention power?’’ - Indirectly hinting that Ibom Power has not been a priority of the government. I pushed back: ‘’But I understand that the government had ordered an audit of the place this year; and is it not possible that the governor was planning to do something about Ibom Power; after all, government does not do everything in one year’’. ‘’I don’t want to talk again’’, he said and hung up. I was also going to ask him why the company has been making losses and many other questions.

Gov. Umo Eno refused elaborate discussions on this matter when I called him last night. ‘’We will turn around Ibom Power’’, he told me, adding, ‘’right now, we are busy on the 2025 budget and the funeral arrangements for my dear wife. I regret what has happened, but we shall turn around Ibom Power’’.

The government should begin the turnaround by hiring a competent and experienced CEO who should be given clear targets to implement the recommendations in the Plant Audit Report; reposition the company; forge ahead with the power market reforms to supply power to Akwa Ibom people and drive the company profitably in accordance with global best practice.

ETIM is a journalist and author

Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola - remember him? I would not have needed to ask this sort of “foolish question”, as it were, but for the fact that, in this our obodo NIgeria, yesterday’s men of power and influence soon become today’s inconsequentials, hardly noticed or remembered by anyone anymore!

Yesterday, they could make anyone an instant millionaire or billionaire or command the earth to swallow up anyone that steps on their toes. Today, they are a far cry from that, having climbed down from their Olympian heights or high horses. Their phones don’t ring incessantly as before. Nothing captures this better than a post I watched on social media of a man who described the difference between being a man of power and being an ordinary citizen!

As a man of power, he was booked first class to a speaking event; was chauffeur-driven from the airport to a five-star hotel; was met on arrival by a bevy of hotel attendants who ushered him into his exquisitely-furnished room. The next day, he was chauffeur-driven again to the engagement venue and had a front-row seat waiting for him. Without asking, he was offered coffee in a gold-plated cup.

UYears later when he had become an ordinary citizen and was invited to the same speaking event, he had to book his economy class ticket by himself; took a cab from the airport to a low profile hotel that he could afford; and checked himself into his sparsely furnished room. The next day, he had to find his way to the event venue and when he asked for a cup of coffee, he was signalled to a corner of the hall where he poured himself coffee in a styrofoam cup!

His verdict: the first-class treatment he received during his first outing was not for him but for the office he occupied at the time. His real worth was the styrofoam-cup treatment he got at his second coming!

I don’t know how many of those in positions of power understand this. It seems they only get wiser after they lose power. Who remembers Goodluck Ebele Jonathan today? His phone must have stopped ringing a long time ago. Even Muhammadu Buhari’s phone must have stopped ringing by now. It is not for fun that outgoing governments are described as lame ducks. Once people know that you are on your way out of power, their attention shifts to the in-coming men (and women) of power or the new sheriffs in town, as they are called.

The “reality show” begins right from the time people know that your days in power are numbered. The self-styled “evil genius” of an Army general and military president that Nigerians nicknamed the “Maradona” because of his political dribbling runs realised this inevitable turn of events towards the twilight of his ignoble reign so much so that he had to remind Nigerians that he was still in office and in power! When a man begins to remind his wife and children that he is still the head of the home, know that he has lost effective control and relevance!

I once went to visit a friend who was the Mushin branch manager of Trade Bank; marching ahead of me in his flowing “agbada” was this businessman, followed by his driver who was struggling with a big hamper that was his lot to carry as he tried to keep pace with his oga. Just before we got into the banking hall, we saw my friend taking another man round and introducing him to staff. The businessman asked someone what was going on and he was told that my friend had been transferred and a new manager was resuming in the branch the next day. He quickly signalled to his driver to return the hamper to the car!

But he was unfortunate: I squealed on him and my friend promptly scolded him. With a straight face he said: “That is business!” Apologetically, he returned the hamper but the message was clear. Your office is different from your person. When I was the Editor of PUNCH newspapers, my office got littered every festive period with all manner of hampers. It stopped “raining” when I was promoted even into a higher position but which was of less relevance to the needs of our business-minded and eye-service patrons!

So, Aregbesola - do you still remember him? Let’s start the introduction from the point where he started his meteoric rise into stardom, influence and power. He was a two-term (eight years) Commissioner for Works in Lagos State under Gov. Bola Ahmed Tinubu (1999-2007). From there, he was assisted by the same Tinubu to bag another two-term (eight years) as governor of Osun state (2010 - 2018). It is debatable whether or not Tinubu was instrumental to his appointment as Minister of Interior by President Muhammadu Buhari (August 2019 - May 2023). What is beyond dispute, however, is that Ogbeni, as he was fondly called, was one of the closest political associates of Tinubu until things fell apart between godson and godfather.

What readily comes to mind was the tussle between Aregbesola and his successor as governor of Osun State, Adegboyega Isiaka Oyetola, said to be Tinubu’s cousin. Incidentally, Oyetola was Aregbesola’s Chief of Staff. When politicians fight, they neither remember yesterday nor think of tomorrow. Tinubu soon got enmeshed in the crossfire between Aregbesola and Oyetola so much so that Aregbesola, whom many had thought would be Tinubu’s armour bearer as he campaigned to be the country’s numero uno, became his most truculent opponent.

In the words of William Shakespeare’s Antony (in the play, ‘Julius Caesar’), Aregbesola’s vitriols against Tinubu was “the unkindest cut of all”. Aregbesola’s turnaround surprised many. Here was a man so sold out to Tinubu that he once was quoted as saying that should Tinubu order him to die, all he would ask was the kind of death that would suit the Jagaban most!

But even Peter, despite his staunch and avowed commitment, betrayed Jesus (Matthew 26: 69 - 75). In Peter’s case, it was the devil that sought to destroy him and truncate his destiny as the cornerstone or foundation on which Christ would build his Church (Matthew 16:18; Luke 22:31); in Aregbesola’s case, some people say it was “isasi” - an evil invocation by enemies or detractors that causes a man to misbehave and lose favour with his benefactors. If you have been close enough to politicians, you will understand.

Dogs eating dogs, chicken feasting on one another’s intestines and the pull-him-down syndrome are common among politicians. One politician justified it by saying that fish eat fish to gain weight! Politics is not a place to venture if you are not well fortified - if you understand what I mean! It is “Igbo Odaju” (Forest of the Audacious), which is to be feared more than D. O. Fagunwa’s “Forest of a thousand daemons”.

I understand that efforts by Aregbesola and his friends to make amends have been thwarted by those who are happy that his political downfall has created gaps and vacuums for them to fill. Those ones are said to be saying “oti”, “mba” and “keria” to peace moves. They point at the fact that Aregbesola, someone who does not know how to do things by halves, threw all caution to the wind while standing against Tinubu and his presidential ambition. Those ones must have been behind the former Minister’s recent expulsion from the All Progressives Party (APC) in his ward in Osun state.

But there must be an end to battles and wars - as there must be to litigations. To err is human but to forgive is divine. It is in this light that I chose to view Aregbesola’s recent comments on the state of the nation, which contains pieces of advice that I believe are worth considering or was he simply going for broke with Tinubu? Excerpts:

“Former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola has issued a stark warning about the worsening socio-economic and political crisis in Nigeria, suggesting that if left unchecked, the country could be on the brink of a revolution…. Aregbesola expressed grave concern over what he described as ‘increasing inequality, widespread hunger, insecurity, and the erosion of citizens’ rights’, all of which he believes could fuel widespread unrest…

"Aregbesola pointed out that the growing gap between the nation’s wealthiest elite and the vast majority of struggling citizens was a ticking time bomb… ‘We are seeing worsening economic conditions where fewer and fewer people are thriving while the majority are sinking deeper into poverty. When I was growing up, wealth was not as concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite as it is today’, Aregbesola said, adding that the current trajectory of the nation—marked by a lack of basic rights and an ever-expanding underclass—may leave many with no choice but to resort to revolt.

“Aregbesola… noted that a key responsibility of the government is the welfare and security of its citizens but lamented that Nigeria’s current leadership has failed on both counts. ‘A society that cannot guarantee the safety and well-being of its people is a society on the brink of collapse. And once these basic rights are denied, people will resist, even if it leads to (a) revolution’, he warned.

“In a broader context, Aregbesola also advocated for transition to the parliamentary system of government, arguing that Nigeria’s current presidential system under which power is concentrated in the hands of a single individual is ill-suited to the country’s size and complexity. ‘It is unrealistic for one person to govern over 220 million Nigerians without checks and balances’, he said, noting that the parliamentary system would foster a more inclusive and accountable form of governance.

" Aregbesola likened the centralization of power under Nigerian presidents to a form of ‘modern colonialism’, pointing out the dictatorial tendencies that have characterized the Nigerian leadership. ‘If we continue to believe that one person has the capacity to rule this country alone, we are kidding ourselves. It’s time for a change’, he insisted”.

Our political leaders get wiser and speak like normal human beings only after they exit power. All the same, we should not throw the baby away with the bath water. We should not, because of the messenger, ignore the message - poignant, instructive and timely as it is. That Aregbesola chose to advise Mr. President through this forum indicates that he might have been shut out and no longer has access. The President should keep his doors open to foes and friends alike. If I recall well, he did vow to be the president of all Nigerians.