At their first home World Cup, the Matildas have already created history. By winning the longest penalty shootout in World Cup history against France, they took Australia to a football World Cup semifinal for the first time ever.

Despite reaching these dizzying heights for just the first time ever, Australia seem to have everything necessary to go all the way. Although most models are calling them the third-best team among the four semifinalists, they might have a pretty good chance of winning the tournament if they play their match-ups right.

A Shaky Start

The Matildas must have been feeling on top of the World after that penalty shootout victory in the quarterfinal, but there was a time not so long ago when their very participation in the knockouts was seriously jeopardized.

After Sam Kerr’s calf injury ruled her out of the opener, Australia’s tournament got off to a good enough start on the pitch with a 1-0 win against a staunch Irish side on the opening day. They were far from convincing, though, and it seemed that a stronger side could get at them pose serious problems.

That proved to be true in the next group game against Nigeria, which was a five-goal thriller that went the Super Falcons’ way. The Matildas did score the opener on the stroke of half-time but failed to hold on to their advantage until the break, and then were opened up on the counterattack in the second half as they chased a positive result.

This defeat dropped Australia down to third in their group, setting up a matchday 3 decider against Olympic Gold Medalists Canada, whom they would have to beat to stay in the tournament. While this was a big scare that no one would have wanted to endure, it seems to have proven beneficial for them in the bigger picture.

The reason behind that is the fact that the defeat to Nigeria was the necessary shock to the system that forced Tony Gustavsson and his coaching staff to tweak their tactics a little bit.

Finding The Right Formula

Ever since Gustavsson took charge of the Matildas in 2020, they have been a team that thrives in transitions and counterattacks but seem to struggle when allowed to keep a lot of possession. This was clear right from the last Olympics, when they failed to win a single match where they had the majority of the ball. Their disappointing elimination from the Asian Cup quarterfinal reinforced this, as they lost to South Korea in a match where they had about two-thirds of possession.

With that in mind, it should be no surprise that they had close to 65% possession in both of their first two group games, which were clearly their two most disappointing performances. After the defeat to Nigeria, Gustavsson realized that they were best off playing in a way that they were most comfortable with, so he switched things up.

Australia adopted a less possession-based approach against Canada, allowing the Olympic champions to keep much more of the ball. Their aim was to set up a centrally compact 4-4-2 mid block with pressing traps in midfield, where they looked to win the ball back.

The blueprint is quite clear: win the ball back in midfield and immediately play forward. That is why the wide midfielders are usually positioned a little bit higher than the central ones, as they often serve as the outlets for the transitions and counterattacks. This tactic helped them put four goals past Canada as well as a couple past Denmark in the Round of 16, where this one epitomized Australia’s changed approach:

In addition to this stylistic change, Gustavsson made one crucial adjustment in terms of personnel. After watching Caitlin Foord struggle without her usual strike-partner Sam Kerr in the front-two, he decided to shift her out to the left wing where she could form a connection with left-back Steph Catley, whom she regularly plays with at Arsenal. Further, Foord’s runs in behind make her a great counterattacking outlet for her side, as is evidenced by the above clip.

Besides Foord, this new approach has also unlocked the best of Mary Fowler. The 20-year-old striker has looked fantastic in transition, not just with her runs in behind but also with her ability to hold the ball up and release through passes for teammates to chase (as she did for Foord against Denmark).

Moreover, this new approach has also helped Australia shore up their defense. After letting in three goals against Nigeria, they have kept three clean sheets and restricted their opponents to 3, 3 and 5 shots on target respectively in their subsequent matches. Clearly, this mid-tournament tweak has been the key to Australia’s success in all aspects so far.

Home Advantage

All the on-pitch action and tactics are, of course, the most important aspect in analysing football, but it is also important to consider wider contexts. In this regard, Australia have something the three other semifinalists don’t–thousands upon thousands of supporters cheering them on in the stadiums.

Attendance records have been broken as every game involving Australia has been sold out, but it is not just the die-hard football fans who are behind them. The World Cup fever has swept across the entire country, as public watch parties have been filled to the brim all over the country and the Matildas have become the talk of the town. Videos all over the internet can attest to this, but perhaps none better than this flight:

In this sense, the Matildas might already have achieved something greater than winning the World Cup. Their performances and the support they have received will surely go on to create a lasting legacy that extends far beyond this tournament, perhaps even one that converts Australia into a full-on footballing nation.

But that is a separate discussion and one that will become less and less debatable the further the team advances. Indeed, they look in decent shape to compete for the trophy. Their semifinal opponents, England, are yet another team who look to dominate possession and have themselves looked susceptible to counterattacks in previous matches, so Australia’s current style of play seems to be the right one to defeat the European champions.

Should they advance to the final, the Matildas will come up against Spain or Sweden in the last game of the tournament. Of course, there are a lot of factors that can influence a World Cup final especially, but on paper, they seem to have what it takes to get the better of either team. Sweden’s performances so far have often been unconvincing so they are the least-fancied of the four semifinalists, while Spain also play a possession-dominant style that makes them susceptible to counterattacks.

But the biggest boost for Australia could be the complete return of Sam Kerr. After her calf injury ruled her out of the group stage, the star striker has appeared off the bench in both knockout games so far and spent over an hour on the pitch against France, so she will surely be fit to start against England. Her world-class clinicality will add yet another threat to this Australian attack, making them all the more dangerous on the break.

Having survived what seemed to be the most grueling penalty shootout humankind has ever seen, Australia will surely be ready to face anything in their last two matches. If things go their way, we could well witness one of the greatest and most historic successes in World Cup history.