Those who live in denial according to Yoruba aphorism often focus on treatment of rashes while ignoring the more deadly and life- threatening leprosy affliction. Unfortunately, as a nation, it is in our character to expend energy in addressing symptoms instead of facing our demons. 

For instance, whereas our visionary forbears bequeathed on to us a federal system, celebrated by over two-third of the nations of the world for its ability to guarantee ‘unity in diversity’ in a multi-ethnic society, we traded it for a unitary state.

But when the aggrieved deprived and marginalized individuals and groups fought back against the state that took over the control of their lives, their resources, the right to impact their values and culture in the education of their children, the roads they pass through and even the water they drink, instead of addressing the fundamental problem which requires simple political solution, we decided to focus on symptoms which find expression in crisis of legitimacy, massive corruption, economic sabotage, terrorism and banditry, kidnapping for ransom, weaponisaton of religion etc. by those who have lost faith in the state’s capacity to protect them.

Unfortunately, the state has failed the north-western states with a total population of 24,244,722 (1991 Census) in their ongoing tribal war. But just as the northern parasitic elite misadvised Muhammadu Buhari to focus on the symptoms in 2016, they last week once again misled President Bola Tinubu to believe that “the deployment of necessary military assets and manpower would ensure that these criminal elements were flushed out and the peace restored back to our communities.”

Since we passed through this same path not too many seasons ago, those who are  today hailing the relocation of military chiefs along with the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, who has promised  to be “on the ground in the Northwest with the CDS and other military chiefs, leading our brave men and women in uniform… to liberate the people of Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi states and the entire Northwest region” either have short memories or are suffering from selective amnesia.

What is going on in the northwest is a tribal war. And solution is political bargaining and compromise. And if there are still misgivings as to the nature of social dislocation that led to tribal war between the ruling Fulani hegemonic class and conquered Hausa tribe that came to the open shortly after inauguration of Buhari as president in 2015,  the July 25, 2022 BBC  airing of “Bandit warlords of Zamfara”  erased such doubts. The broadcast also traced the sources of the social dislocation in the affected states to ethnic rivalry over control of political and economic fortunes of their different communities.

The major protagonists did not weigh words as to the causes of their intense hatred for each other. One attributed source of their anguish, to ‘the closing down of traditional grazing routes and systematic exclusion of Fulani from government businesses. They therefore have no regret in the mindless killings of their arch enemies, the subsistence farmers. And for their grief, the Hausa farming community vigilantes of Kurfa Dunya swore: “If allowed, we will kill every Fulani man, even in the town, because they killed our mothers, our fathers, our children, and dumped their bodies here”.

In fact, Ibrahim Dosara, one time Zamfara State Commissioner of Information did not only identify the genesis of the rivalry between the two tribes that had co-existed for centuries, but proffered possible solution. According to him, the “genesis of rural banditry in Zamfara as elsewhere in the northwest started with a conflict between the Fulani and Hausa communities in the state leading to 2,619 deaths, 1,190 abducted and 14,378 livestock rustled with 100,000 people  displaced from their ancestral homes between 2011 and 2019.”  And for him, the cheapest and most cost-effective way to reduce hostility was institutionalisation of community policing especially since “Zamfara lacks enough security forces from the federal government to secure the lives and properties of the people in the state”.

But Buhari’s government which conceitedly arrogated to itself the power to know what the people wanted without asking them continued to live in denial. In fact, it gave  the impression that  aggressors that confiscated villages sending victims to IDP camps, were ghosts  until ex governors Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano, Aminu Masari of Katsina and Nasir El Rufai of Kaduna confirmed the terrorists were indeed Fulani herdsmen mostly from outside the country.  Sheik Gumi went a step further by going into the bandits’ den to obtain their demands which include amnesty and re-integration into our security services and larger society.

And as if to confirm that the Fulani believe in their just cause, Aliyu Marafa the Emir of Yantoro (dethroned and later reinstated) turbaned Ado Aileru, a notorious Fulani gang leader who was on the run after leading a massacre in the village of Kadisau in June 2020 and for terrorizing residents and motorists elsewhere in the northwest, as the Sarkin Fulanin.

Community policing as suggested by Ibrahim Dosara would have produced a balance of terror especially with recruits drawn from the warring Fulani and indigenous Hausa people compelled to jointly confront their demons. But President Buhari and his defence minister, Bashir Salihi Magashi, opposed state and community policing not controlled from Abuja.

For them to “rout-out, arrest and prosecute armed bandits, vicious kidnappers for ransom and cattle rustling gangs operating in Zamfara State”, what Zamfara needed were a full battalion of special forces; “Operation Maximum Safety with 510 police personnel and 40 patrol vehicles”, “Joint Intervention Team of about 1000 police personnel, counter terrorism unit (CTU), federal special anti-robbery squad (FSARS), anti-bomb (EOD) squad, and conventional policemen” and Air Force’s indiscriminate bombing from the air.

Ten years down the line, little has changed except that hostility has spread across the whole of the north-western states.

President Tinubu who admitted preparing hard for this job in the run up to the election rightly identified community and state policing as one of the ways to address insecurity among local communities. One is therefore not sure of the new information at his disposal compelling him to align with the position of self-serving winners-take-all northern leaders who have always opposed compromise and political bargaining in resolving crisis of nation building.

Tribal war is a factor of most multi-ethnic societies where dominant ethnic group try to lord it over smaller ethnic nationalities.  Europe for centuries fought tribal wars over the rights of groups to protect their values and culture. There was temporary cessation of hostilities after the 1648 Westphalia Agreement. It was not until after the two so called world wars which were in fact tribal wars, that Europe swore “never again”, with institutionalisation of federal system that protects groups and individuals from the tyranny of the state.

Since distributive justice or concern for fair allocation of resources among members of the community is at the core of the tribal war between warring Hausa and their Fulani compatriots, what is required is compromised bargaining  especially as we have discovered that any other option will only prolong their nightmare.

President Tinubu who won last year election by securing northern elite consensus is uniquely positioned to serve as an independent arbiter. He cannot afford to miss this historic opportunity to right the wrongs of the past especially where the northern establishment has roundly rejected policies that guarantees a measure of egalitarianism in the north.

For Tinubu therefore, addressing symptoms cannot be an option. With tribal war amidst ravaging poverty and about 10m of out of school children in the northwest, with Niger Delta political leaders unable to end crude oil theft in their backyard and with political elite elsewhere in the country busy importing the labour of other societies in the name of commerce, his much cherished economic crusade will be doomed.