The real enemy of that section of the Nigerian polity that is generally referred to as “The North” is not Tinubu. It is not banditry, or insurgency. It is also not political marginalization or the Governor of the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN), who directed that some departments of the CBN be relocated, as alleged by Katsina elders some time ago.  It is, instead, the failure of the Northern political, feudal, business and religious elites to address issues that are central to the region’s future in a 21st century world. It is as if there is a resolve by those who should know better to maintain deliberate insensitivity to the blinding gale of misfortunes sweeping through the region and burying everything that holds the prospect of a rebirth for the region.

Rather than focus on what really matters, the concern is about more political opportunities for those who are holding the region in an anti-development stranglehold at the moment. We hear some of them speak of how much of a menace “the North” will be in 2027 if President Tinubu does this, or fails to do that, in the interests of the region. And all of this chatter, presumably in in pursuit of the overall higher interests of the north, is going on in the comfortable abodes of a disconnected political elite. While they are at it, that is arguing for the “genuine” interests of the north, the place is being routinely decimated on a daily basis. It is steadily spewing out an ever-growing population of destitutes and budding criminals who are driven to social deviance by plain, naked hunger and nothing more.

We are speaking here of hunger and the search for food to eat, as distinct from the desire to use crime and criminality as a means of wealth creation. The cartel of criminals involved in the serious business of kidnapping for ransom, which is actually an elite investment platform that uses daredevil foot soldiers for its operations, make up less than one percent of the criminal population.

And it is apparent from the pronouncements and reflexes of the elite that no new lessons are being learnt. That is why today, all the issues raised and dramatized on this page on September 14, 2020, in a piece titled “Northern Nigeria: The Pretence Persists”, are still so alive and so painfully fresh. They are so relevant and roundly timely that the article can bear substantial reproduction here today. Here goes:

“A recent lengthy submission from the elder statesman, Ahmed Joda, rested on a telling conclusion: Northern Nigeria is not developing its human capital. It also does not have the time to do so anymore. Therefore, it is now ill-equipped to fit into either the knowledge-driven world of today or the new world of tomorrow. It needs at least 20 years to become significant in any way. But rather than wake up to this benumbing fact, there is the pursuit of the illusion of dominance.

The major point in Joda’s intervention is that the triumphalism of cattle rearers whose illusion of invulnerability is fuelled and sustained by a national security framework that is skewed to promote insecurity in specific regions of the country will go burst sooner than later. Since most of the northern states have many abandoned, ungoverned and even ungovernable spaces, its currently consumption-driven elite is really in no position to do anything, beyond maintaining a hollow swagger that is backed by nothing but the fact that they are living mostly in Abuja and floating on free state funds.

The above was penned four years ago. In the above-referenced article, I also took us back to and earlier intervention, also on this page, of April 17, 2019, “As the North Goes Under.” In this piece i spoke of a visit to Zamfara State in 2014. I pointed out that “The then Secretary to the State Government explained how he abandoned his farm and ranch because of cattle rustling and fear for his personal safety. I spoke of how he confessed that it was impossible to deploy law enforcement agents, even for himself, in any meaningful way because they were mostly outnumbered, ill equipped and answerable to Abuja”.

Even back then in 2019, five years after our visit to Zamfara state, I asked in the aforementioned article: “Have matters improved in Zamfara State today, or gotten worse? Just as the then Zamfara State governor complained that “the misfortunes” of his people centred around “derivation, as a lot of gold was mined in the state and carted away while his people were ravaged by poverty,” many other states are not faring any better. And Northern states with over 30% of their geographical space occupied by marauders have been drafting and implementing budgets and development projects covering these areas, where no one lives.

Elite myopia, leadership illiteracy and abysmal ignorance of both 21st Century leadership and cultural anthropology of the Nigerian state are working together here. Most of Nigeria’s poor are northerners, even when most high profile political and economically rewarding positions are held by Northerners. Yet, this very same north is being systematically wiped out. Unlike what happened during the mass massacre of Igbos in the 60s, no religion, ethnic, or political affiliation exonerates anyone today. For once, the North is actually giving the greatest evidence ever in its history of both political illiteracy and failure to follow the rules of self-preservation.

Are leaders of the North, and our leaders of various regions today generally, doing any form of costs/benefits analysis in their expenditures and use of public funds? I think not. No matter how generous you would like to be in evaluating the situation of the North today, you must come away with the painful conclusion that all might not be well with the people for a long time to come.

There is hardly any recent event (and I am talking about the last 15 years) in the home, or village, of most Northern politicians where the guests are not usually overwhelmed by at least 100 shabby looking youths, who are either prowling the vicinity, directly affronting guests, or raiding laid out tables. They are looking for nothing other than scraps of edibles and, not even a full meal. And the big men themselves are usually not embarrassed by the spectacle.

Has school enrolment or academic performance improved in the North, in the last ten years, even as all the governors are announcing massive “investments” in education? Has the region shown any real increase in the number of people registering for SSCE, NECO and similar competitive examinations? If no, then an inevitable implosion will yet come. As “their people” come from Chad and Niger, their own youths are begging in the streets; or are in the forests. Everywhere is turning into a no-man’s-land, where even revered traditional rulers and religious leaders are no longer safe. A backlash will come when the Sudanese, Chadians and North Africans will suddenly not be so welcome; especially after the Northerners discover that they are displaced in their very homes.

When foreigners are the ones with Nigerian ID cards in the North, when foreigners are voters in the North, when the total number of registered candidates for all competitive examinations from the 19 states of the north continues stands much lower than that of one particular state in the South, when even the cattle business is now in the hands of roaming bands who have no conception of a brotherhood, or the modern state, you will realize what the Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard, meant by his two books, “Fear and Trembling” and “The Sickness Unto Death.”

Relentless daily killings are going on in all the northern states. The northern political elite have allowed a new breed of wild youths, not sufficiently socialised even in line with the ‘Ranka dede’ culture to become dominant. Drugs, poverty, motiveless criminality and rapacious daredevilry have chased all the northern big men to Abuja. But for how long will they be in exile? Is Abuja itself still safe? Are some high-profile estates and exclusive neighbourhoods in Abuja not being quietly attacked these days?”

As property rates crash in the North, as investors flee, as local economies collapse, as re-desertification takes over many places, as farmlands and animal husbandry are abandoned, as the proceeds of crime become the new means for the unlettered, the threat to the children of the elite will multiply. The peace of mind of those who had the chance to make a difference but failed to do so will evaporate. The free-band society of cattle herders will collapse before their very eyes, as much of the North is taken over by degenerate marauders. I need not repeat the old observation that the late Abubakar Rimi would probably still be alive today if he had not encountered his ‘brothers’ on a lonely road in the dead of night. He spoke to them in Fulfulde and tried to remonstrate with them, but they did not listen to him. They robbed him, instead, and managed to spare his life after warning him to keep his preachment to himself. it was the trauma to Rimi’s existing heart condition, as well as the statement of his “brothers” that they were simply trying to “make a living” and feed their families, that saw Rimi out of this world a few days later.

The article, “Northern Nigeria: The Pretence Persists ended on this note: “A region that has the highest allocation from oil revenue, the highest earnings from tax mostly paid by other regions, the highest earning from bunkering and the highest earnings from the illegal mining of gold and other natural resources, is ravaged by poverty, underdevelopment and a burgeoning population of unemployable youths. Is this right? Is this normal? Is anyone paying attention – as the North goes under?

Today, matters have only gone beyond comprehension, in terms of finding a way out of the quagmire. The former leather works sites of many Northern states are not about to comeback. The textile factories and groundnut pyramids of Kano and Kaduna are tales from bygone times. Most leaders of the North, and also leaders of various regions today, do not seem to be doing any form of costs/benefits analysis in their expenditures and use of public funds.