The political landscape in Nigeria has been abuzz with speculations and debates over the future of the Labor Party (LP), given the increasing signs that Peter Obi, its most prominent figure, might soon exit the party. While some die-hard supporters still hold on to hope that Obi will stay and continue his political journey within the LP, those who have followed Nigerian politics long enough understand that it is no longer a matter of “if” but “when” he will leave. The real question, then, is: What happens to the Labor Party when Peter Obi finally leaves as been speculated by political pundits?

Before Peter Obi’s arrival, the Labor Party was a fringe political organization, struggling to make any meaningful impact in Nigeria’s political space. For years, it was merely an alternative platform used by disenchanted politicians seeking an escape route from the two dominant parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party had little national presence, barely any structure, and lacked the financial muscle required to make a significant impact.

Out of the blue, that all changed in 2022 when Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State and a 2019 vice-presidential candidate under the PDP, defected to the Labor Party. Obi’s entry into LP electrified Nigeria’s political atmosphere, particularly among young Nigerians and urban voters who were disillusioned with the established political order. The “Obidient” movement was born, a passionate, mostly youth-driven political force that saw Obi as a beacon of hope in a country plagued by corruption, insecurity, and economic mismanagement.

For the first time in Nigeria’s democratic history, the Labor Party became a real contender in a presidential election. The party also saw an unprecedented number of lawmakers elected at both state and federal levels. It was a Cinderella story, one that demonstrated the power of people’s yearning for change. But was the success truly the Labor Party’s, or was it simply Obi’s influence?

Despite the successes recorded in 2023, it was evident that the Labor Party was never truly built for the kind of national movement that Obi ushered in. The internal wrangling within the party, the court cases over leadership, and the allegations of corruption against some of its top figures all pointed to a house divided against itself.

The party has been in perpetual crisis mode, with factions battling for control. In April 2023, a leadership tussle erupted between the Julius Abure-led faction and the Lamidi Apapa-led faction, leading to public drama that only exposed the weaknesses of the party’s structure. Even Obi himself had to distance himself from the internal chaos, a clear sign that he was beginning to realize the limitations of the platform he had adopted.

Another major issue is the ideological inconsistency within the Labor Party. Unlike other Labor parties worldwide that are built on strong socialist and workers’ rights foundations, Nigeria’s LP lacks any clearly defined ideological stance. Many of its members are defectors from the APC and PDP, bringing with them the same old political mentality that Nigerians have grown weary of. The party became a vehicle for Obi, not necessarily a party built on strong values and principles.

Against the foregoing backdrop, it is not a misnomer to express the fear that the departure of Peter Obi from the Labor Party, whenever it happens, will undoubtedly leave a gaping hole in the party’s fortunes. The “Obidient” movement was not built around the Labor Party; it was built around Peter Obi. The voters who rallied behind the LP in 2023 were not necessarily drawn by the party’s policies or leadership but rather by their trust in Obi’s personal credibility and governance record. If Obi leaves, does the party have a backup plan? The honest answer is no.

As been speculated by political pundits, there would be mass exodus of supporters. This is as  a significant portion of the Labor Party’s supporters would likely follow Obi wherever he goes next. The youth-driven movement that transformed Nigerian politics in 2023 is loyal to Obi, not LP. The moment he declares for another party or even forms a new one, there is no doubt that most of the Obidients will abandon LP without hesitation.

In a similar vein, the structure of the party would collapse.  Without Obi’s presence, the LP would struggle to maintain its newfound national relevance. The party’s infrastructure remains weak, with leadership infighting already tearing it apart. Many of the elected lawmakers who won under the LP banner may also start defecting to more established parties in search of political stability and personal advancement.

Also in a similar vein, there would be loss of political momentum. This is as the energy that Obi brought to LP will dissipate once he exits. The party lacks any other nationally recognized figure with the same appeal and credibility as Obi. Unless a new charismatic leader emerges, which seems highly unlikely, the LP may quickly revert to its pre-2023 irrelevance.

Also, internal implosion of the party is not unexpected as the leadership tussle within the party will only worsen once Obi leaves. With the main unifying factor gone, the battle for control will intensify, leading to further legal disputes and factionalism that will weaken the party even more.

The harsh reality is that Nigerian politics is driven by strong personalities rather than institutionalized political structures. Without Obi, LP risks falling back into the shadows, where it will once again become a minor party with little electoral significance.

Some political analysts believe that Peter Obi’s departure will expose the deep-rooted weaknesses within LP. Dr. Kelechi Nwankwo, a political scientist argues that the Labor Party has failed to transition from a movement-based party to a structured, ideology-driven political entity. “If LP had used the momentum from the 2023 elections to build a strong national presence, Obi’s exit wouldn’t be such a big threat. But right now, the party is still fragile,” he said.

On the other hand, there are optimists who believe the party could survive without Obi if it takes proactive steps. Some argue that if the LP leadership can rally around new figures and build alliances, they may have a chance. However, this remains a tall order considering the depth of factionalism and internal disunity already plaguing the party.

At this juncture, it is not a misnomer to ask, “Is there hope for the Labor Party?” The answer to the foregoing question is yes and no.  If the Labor Party hopes to remain relevant in Nigerian politics post-Obi, it must undergo a total transformation. The party must build strong internal structures, define a clear ideological stance, and develop leaders beyond Peter Obi. It must also work towards genuine grassroots mobilization rather than relying on one individual’s popularity.

However, history suggests that such transformation is unlikely. Nigerian political parties, except for the APC and PDP, have struggled to survive beyond the influence of their founding figures. The Social Democratic Party (SDP), the Young Progressives Party (YPP), and even the Action Democratic Congress (ADC) have all faded into political insignificance due to weak structures and lack of enduring leadership.

Peter Obi’s departure from the Labor Party is only a matter of time, and when it happens, the party will be left in a precarious position. Without Obi, the LP is like a house built on sand, bound to collapse under the weight of its internal contradictions. If the party does not take drastic steps to reinvent itself, it risks becoming just another footnote in Nigeria’s political history.

The Obidient movement may live on, but it will not be through the Labor Party. Its survival will depend on Obi’s next political move and whether he can provide an alternative platform that captures the aspirations of Nigerians longing for real change. The Labor Party, meanwhile, faces a bleak future, one that may see it fade back into political obscurity, just as quickly as it rose to national prominence.