After vacationing in the UK and US for a few weeks, I returned to Nigeria when the EndBadGovernance protests had been ongoing for four days…and were expected to run for an additional six days. 

Friends who expected the worst had urged me to stay abroad till the protests were over; but prolonging my stay would have been expensive; and I live in a fairly secure part of Abuja, so I decided to return on August 5th…and to hide out at home if things got nasty. 

When I arrived, the atmosphere was tense. Most of the people I spoke to or encountered via social media platforms expressed sadness or anger about the state of the economy – about the hyperinflation that has forced millions into penury and hunger.  

Even older, affluent and normally conservative individuals who weren’t personally suffering or hitting the streets brandishing placards were sympathising with the protesters. Some of them had voted for President Tinubu and said they regretted doing so.

I was told that police had killed eight unarmed protesters in a suburb called Lugbe; and I haven’t investigated or verified this disturbing claim; but it is clear that there were deaths in various locations – especially in the North where protests degenerated into fiery riots.  

Still, the protests were less widespread and less explosive, overall, than many analysts had predicted. There were entire swathes of the country – most notably the South-East  in which there was no trouble. The anticipated nationwide and highly focussed “10 days of rage” turned out to be anticlimactic and patchy…as in occasionally violent skirmishes, laced with bouts of looting, here and there. 

And the “million-man march” that was supposedly going to take Nigeria by storm on the final day never actually happened. 

On reflection, I am not surprised. Today’s Nigerians have yet to display a capacity for sustained and effective mass activism. 

And let’s face it: If you cannot even afford a meal, making your way to a protest venue every morning for 10 days or more is extremely difficult.  

Napoleon and Frederick the Great are both credited with the sage observation that armies cannot march on empty stomachs. And sincere protesters who are fighting for justice are soldiers of sorts. 

We were bombarded with photos and videos of protesters; and one image that stands out in my mind is one of men carrying a banner that said: “WE NEED A NEW WORKERS PARTY TO CHANGE NIGERIA!” 

My instinctive response to this statement was: YOU CERTAINLY DO BECAUSE THE LABOUR PARTY IS SIMPLY NOT UP TO THE JOB!!!

A MINI DEBATE. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I belong to a WhatsApp group that is populated by pro-Tinubu and anti-Tinubu people. 

Martins Kpabari, one of our pro-Tinubu members, is always defending the President. 

I thought I should share some of the points Martins has recently made…and the responses I got when I asked Hector Igbikiowubo, an apolitical public affairs analyst, to critique the points Martins made:

Martins: Incontrovertible facts :

 1. Nigeria recorded trade surplus of more than N6 trillion under this govt. Unprecedented. 

2 Nigeria Stock Market is today rated the fastest growing, having reached 100.000 base points. Unprecedented. 

3.Our non-oil GDP has grown. 

4. We are growing at 3.1 GDP; one of the best in Africa.

5. Our revenue has greatly increased. 

6. States/ LGAs have more money today, than previously. 

7. Students are currently enjoying loans and upkeep; alerts have started dropping. 

7. New minimum wage. 

Note: Reforms are by nature, disruptive and take a little more time to bear fruits. 

It is the reason for the temporary pains. 

There’s nothing in my vie: fuel subsidy removal or exchange rate unification, that this govt did, that I do not support. 

It just didn’t make sense to continue on those paths. 

Yes, we are suffering. 

But it is necessary if we must make progress. 

We have become a nation of too much emotions and sentiments. 

Place a call and ask your friends in the US, UK, Canada etc. . .let them tell you how difficult things are also there. It is global and Nigeria is better off than most countries. 

This is not about the government alone. 

What are the states doing with their own money? 

Why are we not focused on the governors? 

What has this government borrowed? 

Our foreign reserves is up to $34/36 billion now. 

This government has reduced our debts by about $9 billion. 

Whereas Buhari’s government was servicing our debts with about 97% of our revenue, Tinubu has reduced it to about 63%.

 All the indices are looking up under this President. That’s the truth that cannot be ignored.

HECTOR:

Here’s a counterpoint to the listed points: 

1. Trade surplus: While a trade surplus is positive, it’s essential to consider the context. Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports, which can be volatile. It is important to note that the so- called trade surplus is also a function of the crude oil pricing budget benchmark. As usual, this surplus might not be sustainable in the long term.

 2. Stock market growth: The stock market’s performance doesn’t necessarily reflect the overall economy’s health. It can be influenced by speculative activities and external factors. Another critical factor to consider is the devaluation of the Naira which has made local stock prices attractive for speculative foreign investors.

 3. Non-oil GDP growth: While this is a positive sign, the growth rate might be slow compared to other African countries. Additionally, the non-oil sector’s contribution to the overall GDP is still relatively small. 

4. GDP growth rate: A 3.1% GDP growth rate is modest compared to other African countries. Nigeria’s population growth rate is higher, which means the per capita income might not be increasing significantly. 

5. Revenue increase: The increased revenue might be due to higher taxes, which can burden citizens and businesses. It’s essential to consider the source and allocation of the revenue. 

6. States/LGAs funding: The states and LGAs might be receiving more money but this is also a function of devaluation of the Naira. We must consider the Naira’s current purchasing power and it’s crucial to examine how these funds are being utilized. Corruption and inefficiency are still prevalent. 

7. Student loans and minimum wage: These are positive developments, but their impact remains limited compared to the broader economic challenges facing the country. Nigeria is currently mired in a cost-of-living crisis.

 Regarding the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification, some argue that these policies have disproportionately affected the poor and vulnerable populations. The government’s timing and implementation have been criticized for exacerbating the economic hardship. 

It’s true that reforms can be disruptive and take time to yield results. However, it’s essential to acknowledge the severity of the current economic challenges and consider alternative solutions that prioritize the welfare of all citizens, not just economic growth. 

Lastly, while it’s important to recognize that economic difficulties are global, comparing Nigeria’s situation to developed countries like the US, UK, or Canada might not be entirely fair, given the significant differences in economic structures and development levels.