It is amazing how time flies as Governor Godwin Nosakhare Obaseki of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP relinguishes power to his successor, Senator Monday Okpegholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) on Tuesday, November 12, 2024.

This day is both bitter and sweet to both Obaseki and Okpegholo, akin to the transfer of power from incumbent President Joe Biden to President-Elect Donald Trump in the United States of America, USA, despite the bitter political fight that both waged against each other for their respective political parties to control the heart and soul of Americans. The good news about the U.S. transition, scheduled for January 20, 2025, is that it promises to be peaceful, as indicated by Biden’s extention of invitation to the White House to President-Elect Trump, the 45th president returning as the 47th to the White House.

In contrast, although in comparable circumstances, since the incumbent governor’s candidate also lost in the race, the path to political leadership transition in Edo State has been fraught with personality clashes between outgoing Governor Obaseki and Governor-Elect Okpegholo. In fact, the tension is very high to the extent that there is a likelihood that Governor Obaseki may not be present to officially hand over the baton, as his team alleges that he hasn’t received an invitation, while Okpegholo’s representatives claim that Obaseki has already vacated the government house ahead of inauguration day. This disagreement has affected the traditional handover ceremony, resulting in a less than ideal image for Nigerian democracy, which, after 25 years of continuous practice, should have moved beyond these early-stage challenges such threat of impeachment at the drop of a hat and handing over to puppets than can be played.

Unequivocably, one of the key issues facing Nigeria’s democratic process is the tendency of governors to choose successors who will cover up their tracks or be easily controlled. This week’s column is dedicated to examining the practice of godfatherism, especially the type where a godfather seeks to “serve” a third term indirectly by making a puppet of their successor.

The irony of the succession crisis in Edo State—centered on former Edo Governor and current Senator Adams Oshiomhole and his successor, the outgoing Governor Obaseki—is evident in a photograph of both of them sharing corn on the streets of Benin City. This image friends today enemies today common amongst political allies highlights the failure that often results from choosing a surrogate as a successor instead of allowing the electorate to exercise their civic rights to elect their governor freely. It is remarkable that , generally outside of the South-West, the bond between godfather and godson tends to break shortly after formation. The exception in the south-west is likely owed to the fact that their traditional rulers and elders who are highly respected in yoruba land, often mediate in conflicts between governors and their sucessors/surrogates, before the relationship degerates irreverseably.

The candid photo, which inspired part of this article’s title—“Eat Corn Today, Corn-flict Tomorrow”—was taken eight years ago when Oshiomhole, then incumbent governor, was campaigning with Obaseki as his chosen successor.

While an anonymous person had aptly tagged the scenario: “Be careful who you walk with: Eat corn today, corn-flict tomorrow,” I couldn’t resist adopting it as part of the title of this piece which is rather too long , but it is for the purpose of giving full context.

There is no doubt that the photo and caption will go down as one of the most creative and fitting representations of Edo State politics after the contentious September 21 gubernatorial elections. It also reflects the tendency of governors to impose surrogates , only to be dissappointed and clash with them after handing over power to their anointed candidates, who they were expecting will be puppets. From accrinonous outcomes of those who enter such unholy alliances, the need for our governors to seek more efficacius alternatives can not be overemphasized.

As we now know, the highly contested Edo State gubernatorial race resulted in APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpegholo, emerging as the winner and this outcome has left the outgoing Governor Obaseki and his chosen successor, Mr. Asue Ighodalo, dismayed.

The third candidate in the race, Mr. Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP), lacked a powerful godfather, particularly as Mr. Peter Obi, the party leader who once had a cult-like following, has been somewhat “demystified.” This unravelling of Obi’s influence has been painful and somewhat humiliating, as some of the harshest criticism against him have come from his own constituency, which expects him to be more isolationist—a persistent challenge for any Igbo presidential candidate in Nigeria. Justifiably,Mr. Obi has intentionally tried to distance himself from this perception, yet some critics interpret gestures like his congratulatory message to former Head of State Gen. Yakubu Gowon on his 90th birthday as pandering. It is a tag that the LP presidential candidate in 2023 has vehemently rejected.

Returning to Edo State, godfatherism remains a defining feature of its politics. Since the return of multi party democracy in 1999, except for Governor Lucky Igbinedion, who served from 1999 to 2007 without a godfather, most other governors have had influential patrons. Igbinedion’s successor, Professor Osariemen Osunbor, was backed by the late Chief Tony Anenih, famously nicknamed “Mr. Fix It.”

Oshiomhole contested against Osunbor, challenging the election results and eventually winning in court. This victory elevated Oshiomhole as a “giant killer” in Edo politics, as he had triumphed over the highly respected and accomplished political leader, chief Anenih, the celebrated godfather. Oshiomhole even boasted that he had retired Anenih as a political force.

Ironically, the same Oshiomhole, who disrupted Anenih’s reign as the preeminent godfather in Edo State, later became a godfather himself, helping Obaseki secure the governorship eight years ago. It was during Oshiomhole’s 2016 campaign to promote Obaseki that the well-known photo of the two of them eating corn on the streets of Edo State was taken. This image was used as a photo opportunity to convey camaraderie and continuity in governance, portraying the godfather and godson as grassroots-oriented leaders.

It is unsurprising that the photo opportunity, meant to display Oshiomhole and his anointed successor, Obaseki, as populist and grassroots-friendly politicians, worked like magic, helping Obaseki easily secure the mandate of the people for his first term.

Ironically, this photo has now come back to haunt them, serving as an instructive and cautionary tale to politicians who aspire to governorship positions and to those preparing to leave office that they should becarefull of entering master-servant relationships.
There are allegations that Oshiomhole is poised to become a “third-term” governor by exerting influence over Governor-Elect Okpegholo, as he is perceived as the force behind Okpegholo’s success. But it is claimed that he has forcefully pushed back against.

In any case such is the game of politics everywhere in the world, where politicians often fallout due to a misalignment of interests between former allies who suddenly become foes. As such , the unfolding scenario in Edo State validates the popular aphorism: there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests.

Nevertheless, it would be a rare feat for Oshiomhole to assume the role of godfather a second time, having played that role during Obaseki’s first term in his two terms tenure and now potentially for Okpegholo, who assumes office today, November 12, 2024.

As experience has shown from events in Rivers State—between Governors Rotimi Amaechi and Nyesom Wike during Wike’s first term (2015-2019), and currently between Wike and Fubara (2023 to date)—the godfather/godson bond between Oshiomhole and Okpegholo may be short-lived. The romance seldom last beyond the first term.
This is especially likely if Oshiomhole decides to maintain a strong grip on Edo State’s affairs, much like Wike’s influence over Fubara in Rivers State and the consequential schism, which has wrought severe socioeconomic consequences on the state, leaving the citizens as victims. One can only hope that the people of Edo State will not experience a similar political fallout, if Oshiomhole and Okpegholo fail to read the ‘tea leaves’ and ‘thread the kneedle better to avoid the current unsavory experiences that have manifested especially in Kano and Rivers states.

As readers may be aware a major political power struggle threatens to stall Rivers state’s progress. This became apparent when “jungle don mature” (meaning “the jungle has matured”) became the rallying cry of Governor Fubara, signaling his break from his godfather, Wike, who is now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Since then all hell has literally been let loose in Rivers state with allocations from federation account being ordered withheld by court based on legal infractions as determined by the ruling of the judge.

Assuming that INEC’s decision to declare Okpegholo the winner of the gubernatorial contest, currently being challenged in court, is upheld against the plan of Governor Obaseki and the PDP candidate Asue Ighodalo, (Obaseki’s preferred successor) who have insisted that Okpegholo’s victory is pyrrhic and must be overturned by the courts.

Perhaps due to the negative associations of godfatherism, Oshiomhole has denied any intention of becoming a godfather, a concept he previously denounced when he ran for governor of Edo State in 2007/2008. At that time, Oshiomhole faced significant opposition from figures like Anenih, an influential political leader, who supported Professor Osunbor as the next governor of Edo State.

Just as Governor Osunbor served as a surrogate of Anenih in 2007-2008, Senator Monday Okpegholo, the new governor of Edo State, can likewise be seen as a surrogate of Oshiomhole. This is evident in both words and actions, as the former labor leader and ex-governor frequently appeared on multiple media platforms—including television, radio, print, and social media—to campaign on behalf of Okpegholo, much as he did for Obaseki eight years ago.

One can only hope that Oshiomhole and Okpegholo will resist the temptation to enter a godfather/godson relationship, which has proven to be ineffective in the long run as both always fallout with dire consequences for the states that they govern with Rivers and Kano states as typical examples.

In reality, what is often derogatorily referred to as godfatherism in politics is actually a form of succession planning, which is critical for leadership continuity. In the private sector, a business leader’s foresight in grooming a successor is typically seen as a commendable virtue.

However, many Nigerians believe that the criteria for selecting successors in public governance are not always altruistic; rather, they are often driven by the personal agendas of politicians rather than patriotic goals or the greater good. Consequently, this practice has acquired a negative reputation. So,basically Nigerians have become wary of governors imposing their loyalists as successors, rather than basing their choices on objective principles. As a result, politicians who promote surrogates to succeed them are frequently labeled godfathers.

The strained relationships between former governors and the successors they handpick have become legendary in Nigeria. Although it’s common for godfathers and godsons to turn against each other after a period of initial cooperation, it is curious that the tendency to impose chosen successors has become even more entrenched in Nigerian politics, suggesting that few lessons have been learned by the new governors from the former ones.

This trend dates back to conflicts such as the one in Abia State, where current Senator Orji Uzor Kalu handpicked Theodore Orji another current senator as his successor as governor of Abia stater in 2007, later leading to friction when the godson turned against his godfather. Similarly, in Anambra State, the relationship between Mr. Peter Obi and his chosen successor, Willie Obiano, soured due to undue interference and antagonism between godson and godfather. Generally, such situations can be seen as a form of retribution against the questionable practice of installing successors to maintain influence or enjoy a third term by proxy rather than choosing a successor based on merit and ability to deliver superior performance.

A comparable godfather/godson conflict played out in Kano State, where Dr. Musa Kwankwaso, as governor, chose his former Chief of Staff, Prof. Umar Ganduje, as his successor. Not long after, both men found themselves in a prolonged struggle for power, with one outcome being the destabilization of the revered Kano emirate. For the first time in the history of this ancient emirate, there are two emirs, each having been deposed and reinstated, reflecting the political power struggles between former governors and their chosen successors.

In 2007, a similar scenario unfolded when then-President Olusegun Obasanjo, in the aftermath of a bitter political fallout with Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who intended to succeed him, did everything possible to prevent Abubakar’s ambition from materializing. Instead, Obasanjo supported former Katsina Governor Umaru Yar’Adua of blessed memory and who is the younger brother of Obasanjo’s political ally, the late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, to become president.

Tragically, due to severe health issues, President Yar’Adua passed away in 2010, barely two years into his first term, leaving the country in a precarious situation, as this was the first time a sitting president had died under democratic rule. The military dictator, General Sanni Abacha had died while serving as a military head of state.
The National Assembly ultimately resolved the constitutional crisis created by that unprecedented situation by invoking the “Doctrine of Necessity,” allowing for a smooth transition of power.

Remarkably, before Yar’Adua’s passing, he was not following OBJ’s agenda. In fact, he had overturned the sale of NNPC refineries to private sector investors, including Dangote, and even reversed the privatization of the electricity sector—policies that the current administration under President Bola Tinubu appears to be reviving, as seen in recent fuel and gas policies shifting control of energy security to the private sector.
What the examples above underscore is that there is no evidence that engineering surrogates as successors as has long term benefits as such perfidous acts always backfire.

As I wish Senator Monday Okpegholo, who assumes office as governor of Edo State today, a successful tenure, I would also like to offer him counsel as a good friend of many years. He should be guided by the experiences of his predecessors in the godfather/godson dynamic that has shaped Edo State over the past few decades. This counsel is to help him draw lessons from history and establish guardrails against any such damaging relationships.

To my senior friend, the distinguished Senator Oshiomhole, I believe he understands the futility of playing the godfather role, having fought against it nearly two decades ago. God has blessed him with enough achievements in labor movement where he was at the helms of affairs as well as in politics as a governor and also empowered him to serve as a distinguished senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,so he should not descend from swimming in an ocean to playing in a puddle. He has demonstrated that he possesses sufficient political influence to impact who becomes governor of Edo State relying on the power of incumbency and also when he is not governor. So, the political prowess, once ascribed only to President Bola Tinubu as the former governor of Lagos State who still influenced the the choice who becomes governor of the state continuosly even after a couple of decades since he exited office, should be put to positive use. I trust that he will not follow the example of the politicians, who, after serving as governor still attempt to control governance in their home state, thereby causing instability and reflecting poorly on both democracy and politicians.
As for Obaseki and Ighodalo, who have been left holding the wrong end of the stick in the battle for the control of Dennis Osadebey house, Edo state seat of power, as a democracy advocate l urge them to continue to pursue justice in court to test the law and make democracy sturdier as it develops taproots in Nigeria.
That is one way that we can hand our children “a banner without stain” as captured in a stanza of our national anthem.

Magnus Onyibe is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, an alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

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