Caveat Emptor: What is adopted and said here is pending the judiciary determination of who ultimately becomes the Nigerian president.
“Let me dispense with any political correctness and say it loud and clearly that, any attempt to invade Niger Republic by a Nigerian led ECOWAS Army in the guise of “safeguarding democracy”, will be a declaration of war on northern Nigeria and its people because we are the ones that will bear the full brunt of this misguided war. We in the region will not support any act of unprovoked aggression against Niger Republic under any pretense”- Usman Yusuf
In the course of the last presidential election campaign,
It was Vice Presidential candidate Kashim Shettima who first pitched Lagos state as a governance exemplar and a role model for governance at the national level. And to whom does the honour of the superlative performance record belong other than his principal, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, (who governed Lagos state for eight years, and continues to rule the state since the expiration of his governorship tenure in 2007).
Quite the megalomaniac, and in the intimation of a co-presidency to come, Shettima could not resist the hubris of conferring on himself a similar cause celebre status (of being the security crisis management expert behind the deescalation of the boko haram insurgency). Nigeria would therefore become doubly lucky were they to have the good sense of voting the Tinubu/Shettima presidential ticket.
He went ahead to prescribe a comparative advantage division of labour which recommends that Tinubu should appropriately take charge of the Nigerian economy while the responsibility of keeping Nigeria safe should be entrusted to him. The ‘imagination run riot’ dimensions of this yarn was quickly called into question in the outcome of the February 25th presidential election in Lagos state. When the motion to affirm the authenticity of the Shettima testimony (regarding his mentor) was put to vote before the Lagos state electorate on February 25th 2023, the nays had it by a wide margin, never mind the INEC cooked up narrow margin defeat.
If the state of the pudding is in the eating, the certainty today is that a super majority of Nigerians would daub Shettima with the robe of a fraudulent promoter.
Former governor of cross river state, Donald Duke, was not convinced that his erstwhile colleague and friend truly won the February 25th presidential election. He was nonetheless of the generous opinion that his friend may aposteriori earn legitimacy by how he grapples with the challenge of governance from the get go. I have not heard from Duke since he laid out this parameter but in rational assessment, it is difficult to see how the president can be deemed to have passed the Donald Duke eligibility test.
Let us even assume without conceding that Tinubu did well with Lagos state. But then, he was a much younger and vigorous person back in the day and the inevitable ageing process is bound to take its toll, not to talk of the speculations of a Buhari type debility. It gets more complicated, when we factor in the fact that there is little wiggle room for the latitude of a leisurely pace open to a state governor. It is, for instance, not the ken of a state governor to worry about the often exacting demands of foreign policy. Think of the burden of the Niger republic hoopla that has fallen pat on his palms (in his capacity as the chairman of ECOWAS and the President of Nigeria).
Regardless, given the prototype northern proxy politics of his emergence, I’m impressed by the assertion of independence discernable in his administrative and policy making orientation so far.The ultimate test of this autonomy course of action proclivity is what he does with the advocacy of the supreme remedy of a long overdue constitutional review of Nigeria’s political structure aka restructuring. Moreso, in the face of a constant opposition of his (pan Islamic North) voter base.
Given that the Yoruba are the most adamant protagonists of the constitutional review (restructuring) of Nigeria, there is an element of internal contradiction in the Yoruba support for Tinubu presidency regardless of his lack of commitment to restructuring.
If one were non judgemental, it can be argued that the support is informed by the pragmatism of facing up to the reality of Nigeria realpolitik.That if Nigeria is fated to remain unyielding to constitutional review and therefore unworkable, the next best option is to be at the driver’s seat and make hay before the final sunset descends on Nigeria.
To locate the immediate cause of this resignation to fate, look no further than the scorched earth winner-takes-all northern irredentist politics of President Muhammadu Buhari. His regime exemplifies the worst manifestation of the nepotism of the turn-by-turn nepotism and serves a standing rationalisation of a similar disposition in his successors.
What the Buhari precedence cannot adequately rationalise are the serial missteps and blunders that recently culminated in the incipient Niger misadventure. It all started with the lack of discipline exhibited in the perfunctory announcement of the withdrawal of oil subsidy. Impervious to this embarrassing lapse, the president went on to celebrate the gaffe as a stream of revelation knowledge worthy of God’s anointed one. He enthused “And then, Wale Edun and co, we started debating, putting my speech together without the question on subsidy. I got to the podium, I was possessed with courage and I said subsidy is gone.”
In view of the initial incoherent response to the oil subsidy crisis, there can be no other reason his speech advisers waives a reference to the issue, than the absence of an in situ corresponding policy instrument. This then begs the question of how did the president utilise the interlude between the moment he was declared President-elect on March 1st and sworn in on May 29th?. Does this interlude not constitute a long enough gestation period to formulate an adequate short term strategy of addressing the most compelling governance issue of what to do with the oil subsidy crisis?.
In the corrupt governance muddle that followed, out of a supplementary budget of N819 billion, N500 billion was appropriated for oil subsidy removal palliatives while a staggering N70 billion was simultaneously allocated “to improve the working conditions of the new members of national assembly”. I don’t know how many new members there are but they cannot be more than the full count of 460 men and women. Is there a better definition of lack of patriotism than the dedication of a whooping N70 billion naira (out of N819b) to the comfort of less than 500 Nigerians? And this at a time of dire economic emergency for a country rated as the poverty capital of the world.
Further declaration of intent and marker for where Nigeria is headed under the Tinubu presidency was indicated in the revelation of his ministerial nominees. I had earlier offered the unsolicited advice of limiting the number of ministers to the mandatory constitutional prescription of 36-in demonstration of the prudence required by Nigeria’s economic circumstances. Not only was such reasoning discountenanced, the president actually surpassed the record of the previous administrations with a count of 48 nominees! And then there is the deplorable character profile of the totality of the nominees prompting an ardent supporter of the Tinubu to declare that “this government is doomed from the beginning”. Was this how Lagos state was governed?. For good effect, he also foisted his notorious corrupt buddy aka Gandollar as APC chairman.
Prompted by the Buhari withdrawal syndrome, latent animus of the pan arabic northern region with Tinubu, rose to the surface at the open contemplation of a Nigeria led military intervention in the republic of Niger (to restore the democratically elected president). According to my Senator friend the north, the region has divested and ceded ownership of the Tinubu presidency to the South West. On top of it all, there is the bizarre tendency of drawing a parallel between contemporary Nigeria and the Nigeria of 1966.
They view the prospects of a military intervention in Niger spearheaded by Nigeria as a continuation of their internal difficulties with the Tinubu government.
In historical perspective, the political character of the standoff between the government of Nigeria and the Niger republic is an echo of what the Premier of the defunct northern region, Sir Ahmadu Bello, dubbed the mistake of 1914.The mistake originated from the Berlin conference (during which Africa was arbitrarily sliced and diced by European powers and subsequently incorporated as colonies in their different sphere of influence) without regard to their cultural and national disparities.
Niger is also theatre
to the triangular problematic involving America, Russia and France as spelt out with these thematic quips:
“America is on the verge of losing its most important ally in a crucial and unstable part of Africa”.
“The coup has now become what appears to be a geopolitical win for Russia and its Wagner Group paramilitary company in their bid to flip Western allies”
“The U.S. and Europe have made Niger the centerpiece of their fight against the spread of Islamic State and al Qaeda in Africa’s Sahel”.
Under different circumstances, a successful Nigeria led military intervention in Niger reserves the potential of elevating Tinubu to the status of an international hero. Unfortunately, he is stuck with the reality that foreign policy is nothing but an extension and derivative of domestic policy. In that case, it would be foolhardy for the president to engage on a foreign policy adventure to which the majority of Nigerians are vehemently opposed especially with regards to those who shared blood and religious ties with the Nigerien people.
More than fifty percent of Niger’s population are ethnic Hausa reinforced by the pan Islamic solidarity norm that prioritises the brotherhood of the umaa over Nigerian citizenship. President Muhammadu Buhari entered this perspective “I spoke to one Frenchman and I have to tell you this: I said to him, you people in 1885 sat down with ruler and pencil and drew the line. I have first cousins in Niger. There are Kanuris, there are Hausas, there are Fulanis in the Niger Republic”.
The Lamido of Adamawa was more elaborate. Said the traditional ruler “My people and the people of Adamawa have got somewhere to go. I am the Lamido Adamawa and my kingdom extends to Cameroun. The larger part of my kingdom is in Cameroun. Part of that kingdom is today called Adamawa State in Cameroun. You see, if I run to that place, I will easily assimilate”