The Edo election has confirmed what every discerning Nigerian knows: the Mahmoud Yakubu-led INEC is a fraud with no moral fibre to conduct free, fair and credible elections. If I were Asue Ighodalo, the latest victim of Nigeria’s soulless electoral mafia, I will not go to court. The matter will be settled on the streets of Edo. If that is what those inclined to being politically correct call anarchy, so be it. Truth be told, unless and until Nigerians show the capacity to resist the malfeasance of INEC and their enablers on the streets, not in courts, this impunity will not stop.

I had very instructive discussions with two A-list Nigerian politicians before and after the Edo State governorship election; the first being on Wednesday, three days before the poll. Both men have held positions of responsibility in government both at the state and federal levels.  

The first politician dismissed the optimism of those who believed that given the pedigree of the 18 candidates and sophistication of the Edo electorate, the odds favoured the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Dr. Asue Ighodalo.

A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), he was unequivocal that the result of the election had already been written. “I don’t know why Nigerians are so naïve. They don’t seem to know what they are up against. Which election are they talking about? The same election which result had already been written?” he asked.

That was incredulous. I reminded him how the Edo electorate stepped up to the plate in the 2020 governorship election. He riposted that times have changed and INEC has become more brazen, emboldened by the unscrupulousness of the new kids on the leadership block.

We left it at that, but I hoped to prove him wrong. It turned out on Saturday that he was spot on and I was wrong. On Sunday, at exactly 2.33 pm, when INEC’s deviousness was on full parade, he sent me a text message: “I told you.”

Earlier on Sunday, at exactly 9.37 am, the second politician called to lament. What he said was spine-chilling. “Have you seen what is happening in Edo? These guys have become so brazen. This is unbelievable. What this means is that anyone contesting elections in Nigeria today will be doing so at his own risk.” He was hoping to run for the governorship of his state in 2027. Not anymore after the Edo electoral heist by the APC, he said.

None of them is from Edo. So, they had no dog in the fight, so to speak. But as stakeholders, they are as worried as every other well-meaning Nigerian. But I am more worried now because of what they said.

Before now, the risk we faced as a result of the insufferable duplicity of INEC was voter apathy. Over the years, as people came to the realization that their votes never counted, voter enthusiasm waned.

According to INEC records, only 28.63 per cent of all eligible voters participated in the 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections. That was a new low in what has become a steady decline in the turnout of voters during elections. For instance, while as in 2011, voter turnout was an impressive 53.7 per cent, it dropped to 43.7 per cent in 2015 and 34.75 per cent in 2019.

After the 2023 elections, it was apparent that the voter apathy will intensify and the Edo governorship election where only about 22 per cent of the 2,629,025 registered voters voted has confirmed that. One would have thought that such embarrassing statistics will make the electoral umpire have a rethink. No! Instead of thinking of how to clamber out of the putrid hole of electoral malfeasance, the hardened enablers of electoral fraud are still digging.

Now, the consequence stares us in the face. Even politicians no longer have faith in INEC and if things remain the way they are, no credible Nigerian will waste his time and resources contesting elections again. The implication is that going forward, certificate forgers, age cheats, drug barons and sundry fraudsters will have the electoral field all to themselves.

The Edo election has confirmed what every discerning Nigerian knows: the Mahmoud Yakubu-led INEC is a fraud with no moral fibre to conduct free, fair and credible elections.

But by this brazenness, INEC has also finally overreached itself. As the legendary Chinua Achebe said in his book, A Man of the People, Yakubu now epitomizes that vile character, Josiah, the local shopkeeper, who tricked a blind beggar and stole his walking stick. As one of the villagers said, “Josiah has taken away enough for the owner to notice.” In the same vein, Yakubu and the INEC gang have crossed a line with the conduct of the Edo poll and longsuffering Nigerians have noticed.

Already, director of the Abuja school of social and political thought, Dr. Sam Amadi, has called for the disbandment of INEC as presently constituted, insisting that evidence abounds the electoral umpire was to blame for every bad election conducted in the country.

I agree in toto! And I make bold to say that the APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, didn’t win last Saturday’s Edo governorship election. He lost woefully to the PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, no matter what the fraudulent INEC says. And this is not a speculation. Results announced at the polling booths confirm Ighodalo’s victory to the eternal shame of those who toy with the sovereign will of the people. What INEC did was a perpetuation of the electoral fraud that has made Nigeria a laughing stock in the comity of democratic nations.

If you are still in doubt, consider the fact that all the accredited civil society organizations (CSOs) that observed the poll have rejected the result, insisting that it lacks integrity. The problem, as it has always been the case, started at the point of result collation from the ward, local government to the state level, which flew in the face of the Electoral Act 2022.

A coalition of civil society groups, including Advocacy for Quality Leadership and Health Awareness Foundation; Grassroots Development and Peace Initiative; Citizens Rights and Leadership Awareness Initiative, etc., alleged on Sunday that INEC used two sets of result sheets — one used in the field and another that favoured the APC – during the collation in specific senatorial districts.

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room and some of its accredited member organisations, including Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD-West Africa), Yiaga Africa, Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), Nigerian Women Trust Fund (NWTF), and TAF Africa, were even more scathing in their report.

In a statement on Monday, they noted that while as “the voting process was concluded in a relatively peaceful atmosphere, the results collation process in some LGAs were not peaceful and did not meet electoral integrity standards.”

Concerned that the Electoral Act and INEC guidelines on collation were wilfully compromised, particularly in Egor, Ikpoba Okha, Oredo, Esan West and Ovia South-West LGAs, they said: “Our observation of the collation process shows that it was neither transparent nor opened to representatives of the various candidates in some cases. In addition, it lacks transparency in the application of the provision of the Electoral Act and the INEC Guidelines on over-voting and cancellation of results from polling units.”

Bemoaning the over-voting that was reported from more than 370 polling units across the State, they returned a damning verdict: “It is our observation that the Edo State Governorship election 2024 failed to fulfil the requirement of the conduct of credible elections, and again, raises questions about election credibility in Nigeria. As with recent polls, INEC’s ability and willingness to conduct credible elections in Nigeria remains questionable.”

The big elephant in the room has always been collation and Yakubu knows. As a history professor, he is most likely aware of the admonition of the Soviet dictator, Joseph Stalin, to his party apparatchik in 1923 thus: “I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how” because, “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” The devil in Nigeria’s elections is always in the counting.

So, INEC allowed the electorate to vote in Edo and then willfully manipulated the counting to decide the “winner.” What is even more worrying is the impunity. For instance, as at 8:40 am on Sunday, results from 4455 out of the 4,519 polling units where elections were held – 98.58 per cent – had been successfully uploaded on the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IREV), which means that Nigerians knew as a fact who won the election. Yet, bypassing its own portal, the self-same INEC had the audacity to collate results from only God knows where that was totally at variance with what was uploaded.

Those who want to be diplomatic have called for calm, asking those holding the short end of the electoral stick to follow due process in seeking redress.

Due process would mean going to court. That will be foolhardy because it is another layer of the fraud. As Mr. Jibrin Samuel Okutepa, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), noted recently, “No matter the volumes of evidence, the judiciary appears to have taken stand and seems to be siding with the people who have no regard and respect for the sovereignty of the people.”

To be sure, no petitioner can successfully sidestep the daunting legal banana peels starting from dubious concepts of demonstration of documents, dumping of documents and calling of agents polling unit by polling unit, to the requirement that certified true copies of public documents must be tendered by the makers and the new, albeit impossible proviso that no subpoenaed witness can testify unless his or her frontloaded statements on oath are filed along with the petitions within 21 days.

Here, Okutepa’s advice, for me, suffices. “It is my proposal to all ‘losers’ of elections in Nigeria not to waste time and resources to file election petitions because it is easier for an elephant to go through the eyes of the needle than for anyone who was robbed of victories in our elections to get immediate remedies and electoral justice.”

If I were Asue Ighodalo, the latest victim of Nigeria’s soulless electoral mafia led by Prof Mahmoud Yakubu, I will not go to court. The matter will be settled on the streets of Edo. If that is what those inclined to being politically correct call anarchy, so be it. Truth be told, unless and until Nigerians show the capacity to resist the malfeasance of INEC and their enablers on the streets, not in courts, this impunity will not stop.