The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had barely finished announcing the result of last Saturday’s Edo governorship poll when I got a call to eat the humble pie. Senator Adams Oshiomhole, the man I called a product vendor in my last article, had pulled off another big one!

Why? I had no dog in the fight. But I got the drift. I had warned that given Oshiomhole’s reputation for campaigning for candidates for whom he often ended up apologising, voters could hardly ignore the warning label on his candidate, Monday Okpebholo, and that, at any rate, if it wasn’t that in politics, crime multiplies grace, Comrade’s factory should have been sealed or closed long ago.

But he got this one, right? Okpebholo, who Oshiomhole carried on his back throughout the campaign, is now governor-elect. The Comrade is entitled to ask his critics to eat the humble pie. Fair enough. While I shop for the sugar-free variety, let’s review the poll, starting with issues we might agree on.

Powershift

Rotation or zoning is still a crucial factor in politics. The two leading parties in the contest – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – put forward candidates from Edo Central that had not produced a governor before, except for the brief spell of Oserheimen Osunbor.

The governor-elect, Okpebholo (APC), and his rival, Asue Ighodalo (PDP), are from this senatorial district. But the Labour Party thought differently: the party put forward Olumide Akpata from Edo South, which, apart from being the home of Governor Godwin Obaseki, had also produced more governors than any other. Akpata invited the fight to his crowded backyard.

The first thing Saturday’s election taught was that Edo people wanted power to shift elsewhere. Ighodalo may not have reaped the full benefit, but the result showed that he defeated Okpebholo in Edo Central, even though he currently represents this zone in the Senate. That lesson – that zoning matters – was lost on Labour, and it paid dearly for it.

Godfather never sleeps

Godfathers matter, too. In elite circles and on TV discussion programmes, we can criticise godfathers and call them names, like I called Oshiomhole, a decorated vendor of lousy products. It doesn’t matter, as the results of the poll have shown. The election was a contest of godfathers: Oshiomhole vs. Obaseki, each with a hefty trail of other godfathers lurking in the shadows.

If godfathers didn’t matter, Obaseki wouldn’t go, like a thief in the night, accompanied by Ighodalo, to the Abuja private residence of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, his interim godfather four years ago in a desperate attempt to curry favour.

Complaining about the role of godfathers in our elections won’t change anything. Party members or their sympathisers must be prepared to put their money and energy where their mouth is. It’s a waste of time to disregard party funding and involvement in party organisation, only to complain at elections that Piper Godfathers are playing a disgusting tune. They will.

Oshiomhole has redeemed himself as a preeminent product vendor and godfather of Edo politics. He has also retired Obaseki to Afrinvest or whatever may be left of his investment company.

There’s a life lesson here, too: choose your fight. The question was not who Obaseki was fighting but who he was not fighting. He fought Oshiomhole, fought those who sheltered him from vagrancy four years ago, fought his deputy, fought relations of his deputy in the civil service, fought anyone remotely connected to Oshiomhole, fought the Palace, and fought anyone who advised him to stop fighting. Ultimately, he’ll have to deal with the echoes of what might have been – alone.

Over their dead body

There’s yet another thing the poll tells us – something the PDP may learn over its dead body: that the division in the party which snatched its cap in 2023 may behead it sooner than later. The ruling APC has had problems, especially concerning the chairman’s home troubles and the power tussle in the North Central. However, the gold for internal chaos must go to the PDP and the Labour Party.

Even though PDP governors converged on Benin during the election to present a common front, the party’s core – the governors and its National Working Committee – has been wracked by divisions. The same problem has split the Labour Party down the middle, with each party’s faction claiming to be the authentic one. On Saturday, the candidates of both parties were, strictly speaking, political orphans struggling to get to shore from the parties’ sinking boats.  

Broken

Saturday also cleared any doubts that voter apathy is an increasingly severe problem. In a state with a population of about 4.4 million and over half of them registered voters, voter turnout was 24.49 percent. We have seen this trend in virtually every election. All that happens the day after is the parties and INEC trading blame.

Until politicians restore trust and people begin to see elections as a viable means of making politicians accountable, the voter numbers will continue to drop.

To make matters worse, elections have become warfare. For example, the ratio of voters to security personnel in the Edo election was 1:11. Ultimately, voters are either overwhelmed by indifference or lethargy or discouraged by fear.

But who cares? Once the results are announced and the winner is declared, those who are displeased and have the money go to court. Voters go home, until the next cycle.

Adding up

Discrepancies between the figures on the election result viewer portal (iREV), the number of accredited voters, and what INEC finally announces remain a severe headache. The bimodal accreditation system’s whole point was to reduce significant disputes over figures and make the process more transparent.

Some progress has been made since Mike Tyson was on the voter roll, and palm kernel shells were improvised as thumbprints. Yet, it’s a considerable irony that the same system, which seemed to work well in 2020 and was praised by the PDP and independent monitors as a contributory factor for the poll’s success that year, was perhaps one of the most contentious in Saturday’s vote. INEC must get its act together.

Never say, never

And finally, we saw again on Saturday that interests are the only thing permanent in politics. And I’m not talking here about Philip Shaibu changing parties like underwear, although you would be right to cite that as a good example. I’m talking about Ighodalo and what might have been.

In case you missed it, Senator Babafemi Ojudu shared a viral message last week: Asue Ighodalo was a member of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu transition committee after he was elected Lagos State governor in 1999. In another life, Ighodalo, a dyed-in-the-wool Lagos Boy, might have been on Tinubu’s side, as Obaseki once was. What politics cannot divide does not exist.

But who knows? Never say never. If lousy product vendors can get a second – even a third – life, you never know what the future holds. As they wrote on the tail of that famous mammy wagon to Eastern Nigeria many years ago: No condition is permanent!