Many Nigerians have never heard of the expression ‘’federal might’’ as an important factor in gubernatorial elections until Gov. Godwin Obaseki started talking about it in the weeks leading to the September 21 election in his state. He told the press that Senator Adams Oshiomhole and other APC stalwarts in the state were planning to rig the election and impose their candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, on the state with the use of ‘’Federal Might’’. Okpebholo won the election, polling 291,667 votes to beat Obaseki’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo of PDP, who got 247,274 votes and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata, who got a paltry 22,763 votes. But did Federal Might play a role in APC’s victory? Perhaps. I have participated in three governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State as a communications strategist and I have seen first hand how politicians crave the use of Federal Might to secure victory. This article is therefore based on by my personal experiences.

Federal Might is the deployment of federal resources, especially the security forces, to intimidate and harass opponents in order to create ample environment for the favoured party to rig election, often with the collusion of INEC. To procure Federal Might, an influential political figure in Abuja must give orders to the IGP and/or the Army chief to deploy excessive number of policemen and soldiers to the affected state with specific instructions to cow the opposition politicians and arrest some, if need be. Federal Might also entails INEC colluding with one party to the disadvantage of the others. Federal Might is therefore more valuable to a politician, especially those seeking to defeat a strong incumbent, than any other support he can get.

There are a few signs of the presence of Federal Might during an election. As soon as the policemen or ‘’federal forces’’ arrive the state to be captured, the leader of the command, typically an AIG, will establish contact with the favoured governorship candidate; and his first order of business is to arrest selected members of the opposition. The arrested men are usually influential leaders who command the respect of their party members. To create maximum impact, the arrest will happen at night and they’d be whisked off to Abuja before dawn. No doubt, the incarceration creates considerable embarrassment and trauma from the governor to the rank-and-file members of the party affected party.

The detention of some PDP henchmen, including local government chairmen in Edo, by the police in Abuja was an unmistakable early signal that Federal Might was being activated prior to the election. Despite Gov. Obaseki’s cries and Asue Ighodalo’s lamentations, the police did not explain the rational for the arrest and no charges have been brought against them till today.

Another sign of Federal Might is the disposition of the Resident Electoral Commissioner. If the REC is newly posted to the state just before the election, or if he had been found to be too chummy with members of one party, and INEC refuses to redeploy him out of the state despite pleas from the other party, then Federal Might is suspected. For some time, the PDP in Edo State has asked INEC to transfer the REC, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, out of the state because he is a cousin of the FCT Minister, Nyesome Wike. Wike is a PDP member who as Rivers State governor helped APC win the presidential election in his state and as a reward, is now serving in the APC controlled federal government. It is enough reason to expect the REC to be biased. But INEC refused to budge, with the REC arguing that that his family relationship with Wike would not becloud his sense of duty. By refusing to move the REC from Edo, INEC failed to give all parties a sense of fairness and appearance of a level playing ground. An umpire, including a football referee, must be fair and be seen to be unbiased in all materials particular.

A REC is the number one electoral official in the state and if he decides to work against you in any election in your state, you’d be swimming against the currents and the chance of a loss is greater than 90%. An unconscionable REC has an arsenal of weapons he can use against a party he dislikes. He can, for example, substitute genuine result sheets with fake ones; instigate late arrival of voting materials in some areas to suppress voting and even blatantly facilitate forgery at the collation centers. Even after the elections, a REC can frustrate aggrieved parties from accessing the voting materials in preparation for litigation. I saw that play out in 2015 and 2019 in Akwa Ibom. However, to succeed in his wicked schemes, the REC must have the cooperation of the electoral officers (EOs) who are the chief superintendents of elections at the local government areas. In the 2015 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State, we had a REC who was openly biased against one of the two major parties. It was the most flagrant case of bias by a senior electoral official ever recorded in history. The REC eventually retired from INEC into stupendous wealth. In Edo State, the PDP is currently complaining that some of the results announced at the State Collation Center in Benin are different from what was uploaded on INEC’s iREV portal. That’s a very serious allegation that borders on the integrity of INEC.

The 2019 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State was an eye-opener on how Federal Might could work or fail to work. In August 2018, Senator Godswill Akpabio had decamped to APC from the PDP, thereby giving members and supporters of his new party the assurances that he would flip the state. we can all recall the infamous ‘’Warsaw saw War’’ statement, which further fueled tensions and frightened the PDP and the state government. At a stakeholders’ meeting of PDP in the Government House, a crestfallen member reportedly asked the governor, ‘’Your excellency, we don’t have INEC; we don’t have the police; what are we going to do’’? It was a poignant question for a party that had controlled the centre for 16 years and had known the importance of Federal Might.

The governor, Mr. Udom Emmanuel, seeking reelection, appeared beleaguered, cowed and insecure, but he was very clever. While his party, PDP, was campaigning hard, going from village to village, APC members were engrossed in endless meetings, planning and waiting for the arrival of the Federal Might. Besides, APC was bereft of the cohesion and stamina required to mount an effective assault against the PDP which had governed the state since 1999. The arrival of Akpabio in a way became an Achilles heel for the APC as some members’ resentments against him was beginning to sap the party of its mojo. In the welter of all the tensions in the state, anger in APC and frustration in the PDP, the governor sneaked into Abuja and struck a deal with the people in ASO Rock, including the then chief of Staff to the President, who received a huge erosion-control contract from the state government, in exchange for a support to the governor and his party. It was a masterstroke. With that, the table turned against APC in the state. Its cry for the redeployment of the REC, Mike Igini, who had appeared as a pro-PDP person and the request for support from the police and army, were completely rebuffed by Abuja. No Federal Might was forthcoming and, of course, APC lost the election woefully. Members began to heap blame on President Buhari for not helping out with the expected ‘’Federal Might’’. There’s no name they did not call Buhari.

Now, with the victory of APC in Edo over the weekend, APC members in Akwa Ibom State were once again jubilant, hoping that there is now a better chance for the Federal Might in 2027. ‘’Buhari did not care about the party in our state; but Asiwaju understands the game’’, an APC chieftain told me, after sharing a video of Akpabio and others dancing in Benin. Really? I told him that there are other circumstances that played out in Edo that may not happen in Akwa Ibom in 2027. For one, Obaseki’s fight with the powerful Oba of Benin and his meanness to his erstwhile deputy, Philip Shuaibu, were not helpful.