A brief look at the total number of voters that elect political office holders in Nigeria would easily reveal a rather negligible figure. Many factors account for this. First, the voter turn-out which is always exceedingly low is further abridged by the large number of spoilt ballot papers defaced by many people who do not really know how to vote. Another causative factor is political apathy which refers to general lack of interest in politics.

At the same time, some voters are largely discouraged by the long distances between their homes and the nearest voting centres to them as well as the rigidity of the electoral process which restricts voting to only the centre where every voter was registered. Although all the factors responsible for low turn-out are probably too many to be listed here, the one that may probably never improve is political violence which scares many people away from the voting centres.

In the case of the 2024 Edo governorship contest which is just about a week away, it is likely that many voters may not come out to vote because of the terrifying disposition of politicians especially members of the two major parties- the APC and the PDP. The level of aggression portrayed by some of them in the last few weeks has never been this dreadful since 1999. It all started with pure denigration which this column a few weeks back described as pedestrian electioneering campaigns akin to the activities of local heroes of the first republic who took delight in using their privileged positions to put their opponents under house arrest just before voting day.

Today’s politicians are employing not only the use of political thugs to harass opponents but are also embracing every malaise that decent societies would generally not encourage around elections which ought to produce visionary leaders for the benefit of society. The nearer the Edo contest, the more the politicians issued threats against one another thereby inadvertently imposing on the sub consciousness of every peaceful and unarmed voter to choose between coming out to vote and his life.

In truth, those threatening each other are not joking because in Edo and perhaps in many other states, the reality which we ought to reiterate is that governorship election is not a game, but a war in which all is well that ends well including the elimination of opponents. At the peak of the battle, history tells us that even the governor may serve as the warlord of his army – another word for party during Nigerian elections.

In 2012 for example, a mere rumour that some secret voters’ registration was holding in a particular location was enough to provoke massive protests all day in Benin City, the state capital in which at least one life was lost. No one bothered to interrogate INEC on the rumour; instead, followers of the ruling party were suddenly mobilized to troop out behind the then governor Adams Oshiomhole to protest what turned out to be untrue. When asked by the media if it was right for him as a governor to lead a protest, Oshiomhole said: “I will conduct my office according to my own style. I have a mass background; these are the qualities that brought me to this office including mass protest.”

At the point of the protest in question, the current governor, Godwin Obaseki was Oshiomhole’s best man and political disciple which aptly explains why the on-going electoral feud must be stopped before it is too late. Those who are in doubt as to whether evil days are ahead need to listen to a number of sources such as the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room which has since recorded 19 major incidents of preelection violence.

One of them concerns the July 18, 2024 attack on Monday Okpebholo, the governorship candidate of the APC in which a police inspector was killed. The APC is convinced that the attack was masterminded by PDP leaders that they insist must be brought to book using their own federal might as the nation’s ruling party. Another credible evidence that there is trouble is an advisory from the Oba of Benin’s palace directing all traditional chiefs and elders to perform the traditional ‘Bisusu’ ceremony to ward off evil ahead of the coming governorship election. Our Oba does not speak in vain.

Those who imagined that respected elders of the national peace committee led by former Head of State, General Abdulsalam Abubakar would be able to put a halt to the volatile situation were shocked to see that the politicians were more vociferous during the peace agreement signing week. The PDP which is the ruling party in the state has already declined to sign the agreement suggesting that it is unreasonable to pretend that peace is attainable when the playing field is not level.

The party says it will only sign the peace agreement when among other things, some of its chieftains who have been detained in Abuja without trial for whatever offences allegedly committed are released. Although the Edo State commissioner of police, Nemi Edwin-Iwo has promised that the police are neutral and would remain so, the message being sent to the ordinary citizen by body language that Edo based suspects are arrested not by Edo based police but by Abuja based police is that the fight ahead would be fierce. Are we sure the police should not also sign the peace accord?

There is also the issue of whether INEC as presently constituted can really be neutral in the coming election. To start with, some politicians are calling for the removal of Anugbum Onuoha, the Resident Electoral Commissioner, REC, deployed to Edo State. They say Onuoha is a relation of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike and that the latter who is believed to be a great adversary of Governor Obaseki may be used against the PDP.

The call is no doubt unreasonable because if it is followed,how easy will it be to find a REC who is no one’s relation? A more serious issue however is the allegation that Onuoha is one of the electoral commissioners that ought not to have been appointed because he has been known to be partisan – a point which the Nigerian constitution forbids. Indeed, we do not even need a law to avoid appointing members of the ruling party into an independent electoral body. How can the referee of a game be one of the players of one of the teams in a match?

It will be recalled that when the last set of nominations were made for appointment into INEC as electoral commissioners, well-meaning Nigerians including civil society groups and the media pleaded fervently for the exclusion of those with political affiliations. But as usual, the pleas were ignored; indeed, the senate cleared such persons without looking into the allegations and without considering the impact their appointments would make on the political system.

If there is tension in Edo State now, we cannot claim to be unaware of when the seeds were sown. The pain the rest of us have is that if the PDP finds an opportunity to return to power someday, it would waste no time in repeating the same conduct it is deprecating now meaning that Nigerian politicians are never desirous of free and fair elections, they only mouth the attributes.

Politicians probably do not care what happens to society but analysts have a duty to posterity to record the numerous negative activities of political actors which mar elections in the country. The same smartness going on now in Edo State has largely followed how the people of Anambra State ended up having only 10 percent of their voters electing the governor of their state. Other citizens were either disenfranchised, beaten up or manipulated to produce a people’s governor by an insignificant minority. 

This should be discouraged. As Yiaga Africa, a frontline international election monitors suggested recently, Edo politicians need to reduce the current high political tension in their state. Accordingly, all well-meaning Edo citizens should realize that they still have a tiny window to appeal to political actors to let reason prevail, to allow for a free and fair election, to let the votes of the people count and to allow the best candidate come to power to develop Edo State for the benefit of all.