Adams Oshiomhole, a Nigerian senator and former governor of Edo State, should be in a jubilant mood after Saturday’s governorship election in Edo.

Why? Mr Oshiomhole’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), won the Edo election.

Political analysts may describe this election outcome as a political revenge against his successor and estranged ally, Governor Godwin Obaseki.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Monday Okpebholo, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), scored 291 667 votes to defeat his main rival and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Asue Ighodalo, who scored 247 274.

A former president of the Nigerian Bar Association, Olumide Akpata, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP) came third with 22,763 votes.

Mr Okpebholo, backed by Mr Oshiomhole, won in 11 local government areas, while Mr Ighodalo, with the backing of Governor Obaseki, won in seven.

Although Messrs Oshiomhole and Obaseki’s names were not on the ballots, behind the scenes, political observers believe the election was a supremacy battle between the governor and his erstwhile “political father,” Mr Oshiomhole.

By getting the APC to take back Edo, Mr Oshiomhole, a former national chairperson of the APC once trounced by Mr Obaseki, has now redeemed his political image.

Ally turned rival

Mr Oshiomhole, a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress, first contested for the governorship election of Edo in 2007 under the platform of the defunct Action Congress.

INEC declared the PDP candidate, Oserheimen Osunbor, the winner, but Mr Oshiomhole challenged the declaration and got the Election Petition Tribunal to nullify Mr Osunbor’s victory. The Court of Appeal later upheld the verdict.

Mr Oshiomhole was subsequently sworn in as governor in 2008, a development that pushed the state into an off-cycle election. He was reelected in 2012 for a second term with a landslide victory.

After completing his second term in 2016, Mr Oshiomhole ‘helped’ Mr Obaseki, whom he had earlier appointed as chairperson of the Edo State economic team, succeed him as governor. He nicknamed Mr Obaseki the “brain of creativity” behind his administration’s success.

Mr Ighodalo, the PDP candidate, was a member of the economic team.

Mr Obaseki became the governor, and afterwards, Mr Oshiomhole emerged as the national chairperson of the ruling APC.

In the course of Mr Obaseki’s first term as governor, an initial latent rift with his “god-father” manifested and grew worse until the relationship collapsed completely.

Amidst the rifts, Mr Obaseki inaugurated nine out of the 24 members-elect of the Edo House of Assembly, apparently to prevent Mr Oshiomhole’s loyalists from taking control of the assembly. The APC national leadership rejected the inauguration, which was done at night.

Less than a month later, on 4 July 2019, Mr Obaseki sacked eight commissioners from his cabinet over their alleged alliance with Mr Oshiomhole.

Four months later, Mr Oshiomhole was suspended by the APC in Edo State following a vote of no confidence against him by party chairpersons from 18 local government chapters in the state, a move allegedly instigated by Mr Obaseki.

In December 2019, the Mr Obaseki-backed Edo assembly sacked 12 out of the 15 members-elect who were initially excluded from its inauguration in June.

Two days after Christmas in 2019, Mr Obaseki handed Mr Oshiomhole a shocker. He told reporters that Mr Oshiomhole remained suspended as the APC national chairperson but that he might consider taking him back if “he comes back remorseful and apologetic.”

The Deputy Governor of Edo State, Philip Shaibu, in January 2020 issued what appeared like a travel ban against Mr Oshiomhole. He said Mr Oshiomhole would not enter Edo without the permission of Mr Obaseki.

Two months later, a High Court in Abuja ordered Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension, relying on the initial suspension issued by the party in Edo State on the APC national chairperson.

Upon Mr Oshiomhole’s appeal, the appellate court in Abuja adjourned the suspension suit indefinitely, halting the process and giving Mr Oshiomhole time to re-strategise.

Amidst their raging feud, Mr Obaseki said Mr Oshiomhole was disrupting the party’s decision-making process in Edo State on 8 June 2020. Four days later, Governor Obaseki was disqualified from the APC governorship primary in Edo State over alleged inconsistencies in his academic credentials, the same credentials the party scrutinised and cleared him to contest for governorship in 2016.

The appellate court on 16 June 2020 affirmed Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension as APC national chairperson and dismissed his appeal for lacking merit. The same day, Mr Obaseki resigned from the APC after a meeting with then-President Muhammadu Buhari in Abuja. Hours later, the Edo deputy governor, Mr Shaibu, also resigned.

Amidst intense lobbying and permutations, Governor Obaseki and his deputy joined the PDP on 19 June 2020, where he contested for a second term and defeated Mr Oshiomhole’s APC.

Mr Oshiomhole’s suspension was lifted on 20 June 2020, a day after Mr Obaseki left the party for PDP.

Oshiomhole’s triumph

Mr Obaseki’s victory in 2020 against Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the APC candidate, was a severe political blow to Mr Oshiomhole.

The 2020 governorship election was the second consecutive time Mr Obaseki defeated Mr Ize-Iyamu. In 2016, Mr Ize-Iyamu was the PDP candidate who lost to Mr Obaseki of the APC then, but the two switched political parties after Mr Obaseki fell out with Mr Oshiomhole.

In 2020, Mr Obaseki polled 307,955 votes to defeat Mr Ize-Iyamu, who scored 223, 619 votes.

Governor Obaseki won in 13 local government areas, including Ovia West, Orhionmwon, Esan West, Ovia North, Oredo (with over 100 per cent of what APC scored), Esan North East, Esan Central, Igueben, Ikpoba Okha, Uhunmwonde, Egor, Owan West and Esan South East while Mr Oshiomhole-backed APC candidate, Mr Ize-Iyamu won in five including Etsako West, Owan East, Akoko Edo, Etsako East and Etsako Central.

Four years later, Mr Obaseki hand-picked a lawyer and banker, Mr Ighodalo, as his preferred successor but was roundly defeated by the APC.

However, incidents of violence, technical glitches, vote-buying, and alterations of results prompted the PDP to reject the election result.

Did Ighodalo carry Obaseki’s baggage?

Besides Mr Obaseki’s fight with Mr Oshiomhole, analysts felt that the PDP candidate, Mr Ighodalo, went into Saturday’s election carrying a lot of the governor’s baggage, including Mr Obaseki’s refusal to inaugurate the 14 members-elect of the Edo assembly from 2019 to 2023 and the governor’s ill-treatment of the deputy governor, Mr Shaibu, because of his (Shaibu’s) governorship ambition.

It also appears that Mr Obaseki did not particularly have a good relationship with the Edo traditional rulers.