The phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” gained prominence during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential campaign, thanks to strategist James Carville. It served as a directive to campaign staff, urging them to focus on key economic issues to sway voters. In a similar vein, the title of this piece—“Detty December: It’s the Currency Devaluation, Plain and Simple!”—is aimed at highlighting a core factor behind the recent surge in economic activities and festivities in Nigeria during December: the significant devaluation of the naira.

This devaluation prompted many Nigerians living abroad to return home to celebrate the holidays with their families, spurring an unprecedented wave of revelry and tourism. As I see it, this marks a tangible benefit of President Tinubu’s socioeconomic reforms. Without a doubt, December’s economic boom, particularly in Lagos, was fueled by diasporans’ spending and benefited various service providers, including hotels, car rental businesses, nightclubs, cruise operators, and food vendors. Even microeconomic activities saw funds trickling down the value chain, driven by the influx of diasporans escaping winter from overseas.

Until now, the positive impact of this devaluation had gone unnoticed or unacknowledged by many, especially critics who dismissed my earlier piece, “Governing Nigeria is Tough, But Tinubu is Achieving Remarkable Progress” (published in ThisDay on Christmas Day, 2024). In that article, I suggested that the Nigerian economy was beginning to thaw. However, some skeptics failed to appreciate the role the weaker naira played in the remarkable economic activities witnessed during December, particularly in Lagos.

With the naira trading between ₦1,166 and ₦1,750 to the dollar by December, the exchange rate was nearly four times what it was before Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. For diasporans, this provided a unique advantage. Take, for instance, a nurse or doctor in the UK who migrated (or “japa-ed”) and suddenly found their £1,000 paycheck converting to a minimum of ₦2 million at the rate of ₦2,000 to £1. Such individuals could easily afford a luxurious week-long stay in Nigeria, renting hotels or short-let apartments, hiring cars, enjoying boat cruises, dining out, and indulging in Lagos’ vibrant nightlife.

This windfall spending by diasporans, as highlighted in a recent revealing report, underscores the vital role currency devaluation played in creating the economic dynamism of December 2024. It’s a phenomenon that further validates the optimism expressed in my earlier commentary about Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.

By now, many readers may have come across the insightful analysis of Nigeria’s economic activities during December 2024, particularly in Lagos. However, for those who might have missed this remarkable report—which has gone viral on social media and received significant attention in traditional media—I will summarize its key points to provide context for the discussion on how naira devaluation has driven positive economic outcomes.

One of the reports, authored by Mr. Kayode Osebi, a consultant to the Lagos State government on taxation and revenue, was reportedly commissioned by the Lagos State government. While the accuracy of the research cannot be independently verified, the data aligns with the economic realities experienced during December. Below are the highlights:
• Inbound Passenger Traffic: Between November 19 and December 26, 2024, Lagos Airport (MMA) recorded approximately 550,000 inbound passengers, 90% of whom were Nigerians in the diaspora visiting for leisure and tourism.
• Tourist Origin and Destinations: The top five originating countries were the U.S., Canada, Italy, South Africa, and the U.K., while Lagos, Edo, Delta, Ondo, and Ogun States were the top destination states. Lagos alone hosted an estimated 1.2 million tourists, 60% of whom were local tourists from the South East and FCT.

The report also noted that insecurity in the South East and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presence in Lagos contributed to the influx of visitors.
• Hotel Revenue: Hotel bookings generated an estimated ₦54 billion ($36 million) in revenue, with 15,000 confirmed bookings in December. Guest spending on food and beverages amounted to ₦13.5 billion ($8 million), while the top 15 hotels accounted for ₦10.5 billion in bookings.
• Short-Let Apartments: Short-let apartment bookings were valued at ₦21 billion ($13 million) across 5,937 apartments, with an average daily rate of ₦120,000. Eko Atlantic ranked highest in residential bookings, while Banana Island recorded the highest estate bookings by value.
• Nightlife and Recreation: The top 15 lounges and nightclubs generated ₦4.32 billion ($2.7 million) in sales, with daily revenues averaging ₦360 million and table spends averaging ₦1.2 million. Beach and resort bookings brought in an additional ₦4.5 billion ($2.8 million), with Ilashe/Ibese and Elegushi beach houses leading in revenue.

Other highlights included:
• Event centers earning ₦1.2 billion ($804,000) from 1,175 bookings.
• Car rentals in the Eti-Osa area generating ₦1.5 billion ($937,500) from 750 high-end vehicle bookings, with daily rates reaching as high as ₦2 million.
• An additional ₦20 billion ($13 million) in revenue from recreational activities such as artist bookings, fine dining, boat rentals, and DJ services.

These figures, compiled by Mr. Osebi, align with another Lagos-based report titled The Economics of Detty December by GrowingNigeria.com. Both reports highlight the significant inflow of funds into the Nigerian economy during the festive period, particularly in Lagos, which served as the epicenter of the festivities.

What stands out most is the sheer scale of money injected into the economy by Nigerians in the diaspora. Instead of enduring the cold winters in Europe and North America, many returned home to celebrate with their families, spurring economic growth. Their spending fueled a near-carnival atmosphere, attracting Afrobeat enthusiasts and tourists from around the world, reminiscent of how reggae music was popularized globally in the 1990s by icons like Bob Marley.

The Bigger Picture.

To fully appreciate the significance of Detty December, it is essential to consider its broader economic implications. A summary of the referenced report captures it succinctly:

“Detty December has evolved from a simple season of family time and Christmas jollof into a global attraction for diasporans, tourists, and Afrobeat lovers. Whether through concerts, beach parties, weddings, or fashion shows, this cultural phenomenon has become a time to experience everything Nigeria has to offer. But beyond the good vibes, have you ever stopped to think about the economics of it all?”

This lighthearted description transitions into a deeper discussion about the massive inflow of foreign exchange into the Nigerian economy. Once converted into naira, these funds were used for lifestyle and entertainment, creating significant economic benefits, particularly for Lagos.
Clearly, Detty December in Nigeria did not commence in 2024. But the exceptional turnout and outcome of the celebrations last december have been exceptional. That is because of the naira devaluation under Tinubu’s watch. Not many commentators including the authors of the headlines hugging reports viewed the Detty December phenomenon from that prism.
Conventionally, nations prefer their currencies to be weak to boost exports and trade because the lower the value of a country’s currency, the more she will be exporting as lower costs attract importers. This can help stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and improve the trade balance.
Critics may argue that Nigeria need not devalue her currency simply because it has nothing substantial to export, except crude/refined petroleum products which in anycase the price is being determined by the Organization of Oil Producing Countries,OPEC.
I would argue that such a point of view is not exactly correct. That is because the huge number of Nigerian professionals in health care and Fintech migrating abroad are actually our exports. India and the Philipines generate enormous revenue from their human resources working in the diaspora.
The potentials of Nigeria’s diaspora population is evidenced by the CBN data cited by the authors/researchers of the Detty December survey where it was noted that over $20 billion was remitted by diasporan Nigerians back home in 2022 and reflective of how the economic landscape of Lagos was impacted for good last december.
In light of the above, is it not preprostrous that there was a time when the agenda of some of our political leaders during campaigns was making the naira exhange rate to be at par with the dollar i.e N1 equal to $1?
Thankfully, president Tinubu is not one of those romantizing the so called good old days of the naira exchange rate being higher than the pound sterling and dollar.

In conclusion, Detty December has showcased the untapped potential of Nigeria’s tourism sector. With the right policies and infrastructure, the nation could transform this seasonal boom into a year-round driver of economic growth.

Tragic December: Lessons for Nigeria’s Tourism Potential.

Before diving further into the economic gains generated by Detty December in Nigeria, it’s important to reflect on the tragedies that marred the same period. In my column titled “Tragic December: Why Can’t Palliatives Be Distributed Dangote Way?”, I addressed the unfortunate loss of over 70 lives in stampedes during food and palliative distribution events in Ibadan, Abuja, and Okija between December 18 and 21.

These avoidable tragedies underscore the urgent need for Nigeria’s national and subnational governments to enact laws regulating the distribution of aid to prevent such disasters in the future. Similar historical incidents, such as the 1929 St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in Chicago, prompted legal reforms in the U.S. to safeguard lives during public events. Nigerian lawmakers should take inspiration from such examples and establish regulations to prevent harm during public gatherings.

The heartbreaking losses during December meant that many families were plunged into mourning during what should have been a time of celebration. This stark contrast highlights the need to ensure that future festivities are not tainted by avoidable tragedies.

The Economics of Detty December.

Returning to the report titled “The Economics of Detty December” by a firm known as GrowingNigeria, the document reveals the massive economic boost generated by festive activities, particularly in Lagos. The editors highlighted how Detty December has evolved into a major economic driver, attracting foreign currency and stimulating various industries.

Key Insights:
1. Diaspora Contributions: Nigerians in the diaspora, carrying foreign currencies, are central to the December economic boom. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported diaspora remittances exceeding $20 billion in 2023, a significant portion of which flowed in during the festive season.
2. Tourism and Spending: Dollars, pounds, and euros exchanged at airports and POS machines across Lagos fueled spending on flights, hotels, events, and cultural activities. Custom-made outfits (aso-ebi) for weddings and events further benefited local artisans.
3. Ripple Effects: Industries such as hospitality, logistics, events, and even local crafts saw significant liquidity. As the report noted: “Detty December is more than a social calendar; it is a money-making machine.”

Unlocking Nigeria’s Tourism Potential by replicating Detty December financial boom nation wide.

The economic success of Detty December underscores Nigeria’s untapped tourism potential. However, the benefits are currently concentrated in Lagos. To fully harness tourism, the following steps must be prioritized:
1. Addressing Insecurity: The lingering insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the northern regions, must be tackled. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu must work to dissuade religious insurgents through persuasion and economic opportunities rather than relying solely on military force.
• Example from Islamic Countries: Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, despite being Islamic nations, have leveraged tourism as a significant income source. For instance, Saudi Arabia earned $36 billion from tourism in 2023, contributing 11.5% to its GDP.
2. Tourism as a Tool for Peace: By creating job opportunities in tourism, the government can redirect those involved in insurgency toward productive activities. Former militants could serve as tour guides or offer other services, as seen in the Middle East and North Africa.
3. Diversifying Tourism Beyond Lagos: Authorities should promote tourism nationwide, leveraging Nigeria’s vast cultural and natural attractions. Lagos should remain a hub, but other states with rich histories and unique landmarks must also be developed as tourism destinations.

Comparisons to Global Tourism Earnings.

Despite Nigeria’s size and cultural wealth, its tourism revenue in 2022 was only $17.3 billion, representing just 3.6% of its GDP. This pales in comparison to:
• Saudi Arabia: $36 billion (11.5% of GDP in 2023)
• UAE: AED 220 billion (11.7% of GDP in 2023)
• Egypt: $15 billion (2023)

With strategic planning, improved security, and proper investments, Nigeria could significantly increase its tourism revenues and reduce reliance on oil.

Detty December has proven that tourism is a viable path for Nigeria’s economic growth. The challenge now lies in extending its benefits nationwide while addressing the structural issues holding the sector back.
We can emulate Egypt which is an African country deeply rooted in lslam yet they welcome foreigners as tourists to live amongst them.

In Egypt for instance, there is a city known as Sham El Shek. It is a purpose built location for european tourists who have established their winter homes over there. Currently , owing to climate change effects, europe and north America -USA and Canada are frozen with the elderly ones anxious to relocate to countries with more clement weather.
The weather and environment of Sham El Shek is not different from what is obtainable in Kaduna and kano states in Nigeria.
There are even tourist locations such as Tiga Dam around Kaduna and Kano.
Ordinarily, the europeans spending their winter in Egypt could have done the same in Nigeria.
But they are unable to do so owing to insecurity imposed on the areas by religous extremists and bandits including herders-famers engaging in violent clashes.
The same panacea being proposed for the northern parts of Nigeria applies to the Unknown Gunmen , ravaging the south east also known as separatists and environmental rights activist who have become militants in the Niger Delta.
The faith based institutions and priests in those regions also have a role to play in persuading the angry Nigerians engaged in rebellion against our country in multiple guises, that it is time to give peace a chance so that we can all harness the immense potentials of our beloved country for the greater good of all.
Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007) sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.