In 2019, I was covering the Mo Ibrahim Governance Weekend, where Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, sat with British-Sudanese billionaire, Mo Ibrahim, to discuss everything from investing to passports, to even Dangote’s status as Nigeria’s most eligible bachelor.

At this event, Dangote complained about needing 38 visas to travel across Africa. By 2024, while speaking at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Nigerian billionaire said he now needs 35 visas to travel the continent. In five years, Africa’s richest man could only reduce his needed visas by 3. This is the best picture of how slow progress is on the continent.

Despite this knowledge, Dangote has continued to build in the continent. His admirers say it’s because he believes in the continent, but his detractors say it is because he gets undue incentives in Africa and knows how to crush the competition in Nigeria.  The events of the last few days have widened that division. Some believe the challenges Dangote and his most prized asset are facing is punishment for offending someone or some people high up in government, while others say he is now facing what the average Nigerian eats for breakfast in the hands of the Nigerian state.

Whatever the case, we know it’s Dangote’s biggest fight on the record.

ENTER TINUBU’S SILENCE

If you have watched President Bola Tinubu closely since he took office, he has made it a duty to make sure any war he fights is a proxy war. You will never find him on the battleground. Nyesom Wike Vs. Sim Fubara, the two-fighting of Rivers state, appeared before the president but the fight continued. Tinubu has never taken a side on the matter.

Muhammadu Sanusi II Vs. Aminu Ado Bayero, the “two emirs” of Kano, have had their cronies go from one court to the other with the hope that the federal might step in and pick a side, but the battle has continued for two months with no end in sight. Minister of Women Affairs Vs. Niger State Assembly on the planned marriage of 100 orphans, Mr President did not intervene.

The most recent is Ali Ndume, recently removed chief whip of the senate Vs Umar Ganduje, the chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Mr President did not say a word. Tinubu has lived in the shadows while his boys pull the trigger to the shots he may be calling. This is the Tinubu style. In Burna Boy’s words “Them they call me the Godfather, Move like an Italian“.

I could go on and on with critical issues that previous presidents would have stepped into, but the president has stayed away from — at least in public.

This is the same deck of cards dealt to Aliko Dangote, who has been the man in the news for the last two weeks. Dangote Refinery Vs. Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) is in full swing. And while the minister of petroleum resources has called for a truce on Monday night, my history lessons on Nigeria tell me we have not seen or heard the last of this matter.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

When politicians play politics, I always ask myself: Are the Nigerian people gaining or losing? The answer to this decides where I stay on every issue. Sadly, this time, we are losing. We are losing big.

For almost 10 years, we have watched every government say “when Dangote refinery comes on stream, Nigeria will stop spending scarce FX on importing petrol”. We have seen friends of Dangote, members of the APC, and agencies of the federal government campaign with Dangote Refinery.

We all watched former President Muhammadu Buhari shut down roads in Lagos to “commission” the Dangote Refinery before his exit from office, only for Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), who was also at that commissioning, to say the refinery is 45% ready with its product inferior.

The message is loud and clear to every intending investor in Nigeria; if the Nigerian state could maltreat its biggest entrepreneur this way, then your business stands no chance.

My second problem is the “I told you so” challenge. With this open battle between the many hands of octopus NNPCL and Dangote, the failure of the refinery will be a good chance for NNPCL to gloat, while the triumph of that massive investment will be Dangote’s last laugh. If a good win-win is not sought, both parties could sabotage themselves into heavy losses for Nigeria.

Sadly, when it is a fight between the federal government and anyone else, we know who wins. Dangote sourced lots of forex from Nigerian banks and the Central Bank of Nigeria, under the leadership of Godwin Emefiele. And doing forex business with Emefiele is perceived as a cardinal sin to Tinubu. It would not be hard to punish.

All of this is just the politics of building something big in Nigeria. As long as politics trumps economics, this opera has a lot more episodes to offer. Hopefully, I can tease out the economic part of it at a later date.

Till then, let this be a reminder to us all that in Nigeria, when great care is not taken the man whose head is used to break coconut does not live to partake in the eating.