Nigeria will be 64 in a few days’ time. It has not all been sixty-four years of pain. No, it has not. Much optimism greeted the birth of the nation. Much bloodshed went into a civil war that was ostensibly fought in order to keep it together for the good of all its constituent units. But the nation has not come this far without some broken promises and dashed hopes. There are still broken promises and dashed hopes, as I write.

Yet here we are: In thrall, as they battle painful policy decisions of the moment, which may yet deliver long-term benefits. In thrall, but unbowed, angry but determined not to be totally disruptive, full of angst and yet convinced that we are on the path to authenticity. Nigerians are facing their worst daymares (not nightmares anymore) yet.

Against the background of the foregoing, there is the prospect, or threat, of a national protest on the very day the nation is to celebrate the 64^th anniversary of its flag independence. And, lest we forget, there is nothing wrong with protests or petitions in themselves; as part of the global democratic enterprise. They may take the form of written correspondence, verbalized and non-violent submissions, or physical displays of discontent; including street matches and generous showing of placards, on which are blazoned the matters of disagreement at the moment.

Thus, protests are legitimate means of social expression, so long as they are designed and structured around the desire citizens to bring up, and bring about, useful and positive, interventions in the society. And that is what makes it radically different from a riot. In the latter case, aggravated misconduct is the norm. This may have no higher social purpose in view, beyond the desire to plunder the polity and carry off anything of value that lay in the way of the rioters.

Most riots are characterized by deeds of madness. There are usually no clear collective goals, beyond the general and specific acts of vandalism that could acquire lives of their own if unchecked. Even when they are checked, riots are what they are: riots. Unstructured, socially self-defeating and sometimes driven by what can best be described as motiveless malignity.

The national protests of two months ago, which, presumably, is about to precipitate another one that has been in gestation, were no riots in most places. Some poor, jobless and hungry people took advantage of the situation to go on a stealing and looting spree. The northern part of the country was the most affected in this regard. This was no surprise to many, because that part of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has been under the weather of ungovernability for far too long.

But we need not do ourselves in because of the allegedly planned October 1 protests. We saw more than enough protests in 1993, after the annulment of the presidential elections. We also know of the Aba Women’s Riot and several others, on the strength of which some have averred that our nation got its independence and everything about it today as a result of one type of protest or the other.

As was said here some two months ago: “It was the long-drawn protests of our founding fathers, in written addresses, in several constitutional conferences and some other means, that eventually birthed an allegedly independent Nigerian in 1960. Just as sceptics had their doubts about the sincerity of the colonialists when they promised us independence, many reasonable Nigerians also doubted the sincerity of the military whenever a ruling junta announced plans to return the nation to civil rule”. And that was after all manner of subtle pressures and open protests.

It was said, further: “Even more sceptics looked on with grave misgivings at the protracted military rule, unconvinced that it was serious when it “threatened” to birth a democratically elected government. Twenty-five years later, and despite the apparent shortcomings, we are making progress; willy nilly if you will. And that progress has more elements of suffering, misgovernment, lack of intraparty cohesion and the absence of a memorable ideological focus from the political class.

Our progress is coming through bitter, mind boggling, morally disorienting and psychologically devastating lessons. The lessons are apparently unscripted, and the teachers are teaching away without Lesson Notes and conventional teaching certificates. And they are exacting and merciless – these teachers.

The names of the teachers include the following: (1) Dishonest politicians, (2) Broken promises, (3) The consequences of citizen gullibility, (4) The results of supporting the wrong candidates, (5) The progressive denudation of the capacities of our national defense and security forces, and (6) The increasing inability of the ruling elite to protect itself from its own depredations”.

As was further observed here, “President Obasanjo, coming in as the first to hoist the flag of democratic rule after the military, was a quasi-military-civilian president. He did his best to craft good policies and establish institutions that would aid good governance. Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari were the circumstantial by-products of a system of elite myopia that had prevailed in the land for over 50 years. They were not entirely responsible for the problems they inherited. Their parties, the PDP the APC, were, again, not entirely responsible for everything that went wrong with Nigeria under their watch.

The Nigerian State was taken hostage long ago. For over 50 years now, many powerful individuals and groups have succeeded in pushing personal and limited group interests into the front row of national consciousness; such that, today, 25 years into a now-unsettling experience with a fledgling democracy, we are not sure where we really are as a nation. Those whose interests are at variance with wider and deeper national interests have become the real enemies of Nigeria. They may well have actually constituted themselves into a team of highway men and women who waylay everything that could rescue Nigeria and consolidate our current democratic experiment.

Protests are coming and going, because our “25 years old democracy is being bombarded from all sides by (1) A fundamentally distorted eldership recruitment process, (2) Skewed values, (3) A largely dysfunctional educational system, (4) A flawed national psyche and (5) A youth bulge that is increasingly becoming the biggest unaddressed national crisis. With every passing day, these problems morph into new, and self-replicating, societal challenges”.

The havoc wrought on the soul and psyche of this nation by the Nzeogwu coup d’état of January 1966 also came up for mention here two months ago. Part of the submission then was the counter coup that came some six months after Nzeogwu’s unfortunate intervention embodied the worst forms of thoughtless, state-sanctioned misconduct with impunity. We are living with its aftermath today. The initial coup, and the subsequent ‘retaliatory’ one, banished the nation’s true leaders from the political and leadership playing field”. They lived in silent protest for over a decade.

“The ‘replacement generation’ for the founding fathers and leaders of Nigeria, whom they were grooming along ideological lines for the propagation of specific ideological norms, stagnated for 12 years, until 1979. Zik, Awo and Aminu Kano would since have given way to the likes of Tafawa Balewa, Michael Okpara, Bola Ige and others before 1979.

The backlog of two generations of leaders, who were left unfulfilled by the military interventions, did not exercise and fulfil their calling. The petulant idealism and uninformed exuberance of the groups of coup makers trampled upon traditional rulers, traditional values, and almost every other thing that was generally respected as instruments for social control”. So, it has all been series of voiced and unvoiced and unclear protests at every turn.

The many institutional, sociopolitical and axiological problems plaguing the nation today, and which have plagued it for over 50 years now, got all the fillip they needed from the actions and inactions of the past. We got a deluge of prematurely retired military officers within a span of 20 years, precisely because of the negative dynamics of coup making in Nigeria. Many such retired military personnel became frustrated and unfulfilled professionals because of the new character of the Nigerian state after the 1966 military coups. Without intending it, many of them ended up being pushed into areas they would never have contemplated. And their new trajectories naturally elicited protests”.

The point was also made here that: “Our nascent 25 years old democracy has thrown up leaders with sudden stupendous wealth from questionable sources. Their wealth has mostly impacted their immediate and extended families, of less than 15 persons, and a few friends. Their local communities, members of their religious congregations, most of their friends and even members of their extended families know how poor or rich they were a few years before they went into politics. The priests, traditional rulers and other supposed custodians of public conscience ask no questions”.

Before the next protest, let the aspiring protesters be clear about what they want, what lines of action they wish to take and what specific positive outcomes they hope to achieve thereby. The protests will not be accompanied by riots if they are well structured. The government should have made some mileage for itself in discussions and negotiations after the last protests. But, but has it? The issues raised back them seem to still be on the front burner.

Many protesters are driven by poverty and lack of survival skills. That is why the Federal Government should look hard at the hunger in the land, revisit the impact of the measures it has so far taken to address the problems and make some preemptive interventions while it can still do that before October 1.

The efforts of the government need to be better contextualized for wider citizens buy-in and understanding. Protesters must be aware that their protests can only be meaningful if, in protesting, they remain fully conscious of the fact that the nation must exist before they can continue to carry out any protest in it. The president’s cabinet has not performed in such a way that it can be said to have impressed anyone, including itself. some ministries have done a lot, but the ministers themselves are dumb about it.

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The efforts of the government need to be better contextualized for better understanding. Protesters must be aware that their protests can only be meaningful if, in protesting, they do not forget that the nation must remain in existence for them to carry out their protests successfully live to enjoy its “dividends”. The president’s cabinet has not performed in such a way that it can be said to have impressed anyone, including itself. Some ministries have done a lot, but the ministers are dumb about it. Mr. President, Biko, think more of capacity as you shoo out the non-performing ministers in your cabinet.