“OPEC oil output declined in January …” – News Report, February 6, 2025. 

Later in the release, tucked in the middle was this statement which should be of interest to all Nigerians. “Specifically, the report [by Reuters] said Nigerian production slipped by 60,000 bpd, the survey found, reflecting lower exports, although domestic usage is increasing as the Dangote Refinery ramps up…This means the [Nigerian] government produced 1.42mbpd from 1.484 mbpd in December….Nigeria is still trying to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd and is also making efforts to raise production to two mbpd.”

This report is alarming for several reasons. In October last year, when the country reached 1.7 mbpd, the Minister of State, in his characteristic way of reporting a flash in the pan as trend, was reported to have boasted that Nigeria would be producing 2 mbpd of crude by January 2025; and the figure on which the budget was based was realistic. Independent analysts cautioned the Federal Government against using 2 mbpd as basis of the budget.

Nigerian leaders and their economic advisers are eternally, if repeatedly, self-deceptive. Notwithstanding the additional request to raise the budget to N54 trillion, January crude production result is in; and, it has shredded the budget. A negative variance of almost 600,000 bpd means that the country must now produce 2.055 mbpd for the remaining eleven months to make up for the shortfall which January result has created. That also implies that there would have been a significant dollar revenue shortfall in the month under review.

 LIVING WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF BAD LEADERSHIP

“Wisdom in people consists of the anticipation of consequences” – Norman Cousins, 1915-1990, VBQ p 274. We have had mostly bad leaders since 1960. That should also tell us something about ourselves. At least, since 1992, when the first Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, was convened by the late Chief Ernest Shonekan, 1936-2022, Head of Government under President Babangida, and later Head of the Interim National Government, HING, the likely consequences of our over-reliance on crude oil revenue had been revealed to us. Since then, every government had paid lip service to diversification of our economy. Good education had been identified as the foundation for success in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy.   Today, Nigeria cannot be counted among the top ten in any of the sectors which now define the global economy; certainly not in manufacturing, agriculture, computer and Artificial Intelligence or tourism.

“Nigeria’s GDP per capita shrinks to $835 – IMF” – Report, February 7, 2025. That news report in February would have been received as a deadly blow by the ruling elite in another nation. Not Nigeria. For once, nobody even tried to refute it. Because silence means consent, we have accepted that we have been steadily impoverished by our leaders to whom we still nevertheless pay our respects. A few days before the release of that damning report, Buhari was still telling an audience of people that he left Nigeria better than he found it. Amazing!!! The refusal to throw away the feeding bottle, which reliance on crude oil has become, has resulted in our rapidly worsening impoverishment. In 2025, the GDP per capita is now estimated to be $835; in 2024, it was $877. But, in 2014, it was $3, 220. There is an obvious question: Is there something wrong with us?

FUEL AND FOOLISHNESS

  Right now, the fuel supply and price situation is simply incomprehensible. Nobody can budget or plan their fuel expenditure because from January 1 this year, at least four different prices have been announced. At times, Dangote, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, NNPCL, and independent marketers fix different prices on the same day. However, Nigeria is one country where the principles of economics are not allowed to work by forces which profit from undermining it at all costs.   At the moment, we have a distorted free market in which a dominant supplier seeks to cripple the others and end up with a quasi-monopoly.   

First, with our active support, the company received the promise of the Federal Government to have 650,000 barrels per day of crude allocated to its refinery. Second, the FG was arm-twisted to allow the company to pay in Naira for the crude. In exchange, Nigerians are supposed to enjoy regular supply of fuel at “reasonable” prices. Unknown to us, we were embarking on the sort of road, paved with good intentions, that lead to hell. Today confusion reigns; scarcity still occurs and we are paying prices far above what most of us thought imaginable for fuel produced locally; and sometimes more expensive than imported fuel. Certainly, something must be wrong.

 CRISIS OF CRUDE SUPPLY TO REFINERIES

  “NNPCL’s four refineries constitute the elephants in the room”. That was the verdict of a former Nigerian Managing Director of an international oil company, asked why the Nigeria fuel situation remains chaotic. For more than twenty years, the refineries gulped trillions of naira and billions of dollars with next to nothing to show for it. Yet they are collectively entitled to collect 445,000 barrels per day of fuel.  The FG bowed to the voice of the people and guaranteed Dangote, as well as other domestic refineries crude. At the last count, the commitment to local refineries is close to 700,000 bpd. With monthly production hovering around 1.5 mbpd, the significant shortfall in dollar revenue will reach crisis proportions any time soon. You can’t eat your cake and have it.

SIR HIGH CHIEF OLUFEMI DARAMOLA, KJW, MY SAVIOUR – 2

 NOTE: The first part of this story ended last week with my arrest in VANGUARD Office on a particular Monday by the DSS.

Below is the rest of the drama. The car conveying me to Awolowo Road, Ikoyi was sandwiched between two cars in front and two cars behind; and I sat in the back seat stuffed between two mean-looking and over-sized armed men. Forget escape. These guys were driving as if possessed by the devil. They probably were. Fast forward. I was at first given the honour of being placed in the Gani Fawehinmi room because the late human rights activist vacated the place two days before I became the new tenant. But, whereas Gani was only being harassed, my case was different.

My Front Page Analysis had hit the nail on the head too hard for comfort. It was assumed that I had insider information and the best thing was for me to be deleted. I was determined to go down fighting; but how and with what weapons? Almighty God provided everything needed. The fellow assigned to my room turned out to be a great fan of FRANKLY SPEAKING. He revealed the plans and offered to help me contact anyone who could help. VANGUARD had tried and government had lied to Uncle Sam and the Editor that I was no longer in their custody; that I was interrogated, warned and released – thereby preparing the ground for my assassination.

I was at first sceptical about the offer to help; I thought it might be a trick to find out who my associates were and to arrest them. Saturday was my day. So, like a drowning man who would grab at anything floating, I accepted the offer to help. He smuggled paper and biro into my room and I prepared to send a note. Then I asked myself: “Who can I rely on to receive the note and who would act on it before Saturday?” I had known Barrister Olufemi Daramola briefly, when he was the Secretary of the Lagos Island Branch of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA, after they approached VANGUARD   to help publish an NBA Directory of Lawyers. I was assigned the responsibility of getting the Directory published and Chief Daramola was in charge for NBA, Lagos.

The Law Directory we published was so thorough it became a reference material for determining seniority at the Bar for years. It also helped to weed out several fake lawyers. That was all. Yet, when my life was hanging on a decision, it was to him I turned; and he saved my life from Abacha. When my life was hanging on a thread of hope, I had to choose one person on who to gamble it. Something about Chief Daramola’s frankness and boldness during our meetings, while working on the Law Directory told me that he was the best choice. It was divine inspiration; bearing in mind that a stone-throw from Daramola’s chambers, my half-brother, same mother, had his own law chambers.

But, he was gutless. Left to him, I would not be alive today. I wrote two notes, one inside the other and addressed the envelope to Barrister Daramola, 10, Simpson Street, Lagos Island. Why? I still don’t fully know. But, on Friday morning, the day before my planned end, a senior officer came to my room with my clothes freshly laundered, asked me to dress up, and go, but warned me not to grant any interview. It was then that I knew that a total stranger had saved my life while risking his own – Sir, High Chief Olufemi Daramola, KJW, of Ilawe-Ile, OMUO-EKITI. My Saviour!!! P.S. Why was the note not sent to VANGUARD? Because, I was told by my informant that they intended to arrest others in VANGUARD after the noise about my disappearance had died down. The late Alhaji Animasaun was next. So, VANGUARD was out of the question. Better to go down alone.