Former world number one Naomi Osaka reached her first final since 2022 on Saturday as she swept aside unseeded American Alycia Parks at the Auckland Classic.

The four-time Grand Slam champion from Japan won 6-4, 6-2 in another confidence boost ahead of the Australian Open starting on January 12 in Melbourne.

Osaka was contesting her first semi-final since 2022, having taken a break from tennis and becoming a mother in 2023. She returned to the sport a year ago.

The 27-year-old showed no sign of the nerves that had marked her first three wins in Auckland, producing a clinical performance to set up a final on Sunday against Clara Tauson of Denmark.

“Of course I’m really happy to get to the final here, I’ve actually never got to a final a week before Melbourne so this is like a career first for me,” said Osaka, a two-time Australian Open champion now ranked 57th.

“In my head I’m really happy. But there’s always constantly things to improve to get better, no matter how old you are.”

Osaka’s power and precision proved too much for the 78th-ranked Parks.

The American faded in what was her second match of the day, having had her quarter-final pushed back by rain on Friday.

Osaka’s four wins this week have come against opponents ranked below her at a tournament lacking a strong field.

That will change in the final against 50th-ranked Tauson, who beat unseeded American Robin Montgomery 6-4, 6-3 in the other semi-final.

Earlier in the day, Tauson toppled American top seed Madison Keys 6-4, 7-6 (9/7) in a quarter-final that was interrupted by rain on Friday night.

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The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) notifies the public that due to the Federal Capital Development Agency's (FCDA) road dualization project along the Apo axis, eight number 132kV and 33kV towers will be relocated along the Kukwaba/Apo 132kV line (Outer Southern Expressway route).

This relocation work will necessitate a planned power outage from Monday, 6th January to Monday, 20th January 2025 from 9am to 4pm daily, which is the estimated duration for the dismantling and construction of the towers as well as restringing of the power cables that would enable resumption of bulk power supply to the Apo Transmission Substation from Gwagwalada Substation. 

Consequently, there will be a rationing of electricity supply for AEDC's customers in Kubwa, Karu,Maraba, Nyanya,Masaka,Keffi, Kukwaba, and Apo Mechanic. This will also affect parts of Lugbe, Trademore Estate, Pyakasa, Sabon Lugbe Chika Alaita axis. 

While the relocation of the transmission towers is a necessity for the road completion project, TCN apologizes for the inconvenience this planned power outage will cause and assures that power supply will be restored as soon as the towers relocation and cable stringing are completed.

Ndidi Mbah

GM, Public Affairs

Let us start the new year on this column by looking at the mining sector and some matters arising therein. This is particularly important because of the much-talked-about need for alternative streams of largescale income for the nation. About two weeks ago the ban on solid minerals exploration and exploitation in Zamfara state was lifted by the federal Government. This was coming after more than five years of a “no fly and no go” zone imposed on the state’s miners, mining sites and environs, in 2019 by the Buhari government, due to serious security and humanitarian concerns.

Zamfara State and its home of large-scale gold mining, known as Bukuyum, is a place I have visited in the past. The grinding poverty and visible misery in that mineral-rich community presents a frightening contrast to the billions the land yields up on a regular basis to both legal and illegal miners. The long table of food times laid out at the local government headquarters during the visit was raided by half-clad, desperately hungry and partly bewildered looking children and youths. Some of those who helped to lay the table and place the food and plates joined in the free for plunder of the meal table. It was a pitiful sight to behold.

The expectation at the time the Federal Government imposed a ban on mining activities in Zamfara State, under President Buhari, was that the activities of bandits, and other security concerns, would abate in the wake of the ban. Many observers justifiably considered it a short-term emergency measure, especially given the perceived linkages between banditry and illegal mining activities in the area. But the expected gains did not materialize. Meanwhile, the ban was not lifted.

The decision to lift the ban last year was based on the current government’s perception, as announced by the Minister for Solid Minerals Development, Dr. Dele Alake, of “significant improvements in the security situation” across Zamfara state. It would appear that this development arose from new, intelligence-driven, and better-coordinated, security operations that led to the progressive and visible elimination of major leaders of criminal gangs and leaders of bandit groups.

The observable reduction in incidents of insecurity, as well the elimination or capture of some of the most wanted bandit commanders, like Halilu Sububu, in open and covert operation gave fillip to the recent decision to resume mining activities in Zamfara. But the essential point for me in all of this is the fact that the nation stands to gain much by the revitalization of mining activities in the Zamfara axis. Of course, with the necessary security, regulatory and other logistical entablements in place to guarantee sustainability.

While the ban lasted, the miners who were officially and formally granted lease by the mining cadastral office to carry out mining activities had to hands off, and stay off, the area. While these duly recognized miners were held in abeyance by the ban and the law, the space they left unmanned was taken over by non-state actors like bandits and illegal miners. The proceeds of these questionable mining activities were going into the pockets of individuals, especially bandits. Sundry marauders and other socially disruptive stakeholders were also the beneficiaries.

The massive quantities of gold, lithium, copper and other associated minerals in the state were thus being mined during the period of the ban, but not in the interest of the nation or its treasury. The positive security mileage that would have come from the ban, as well as the good intentions behind it, were nowhere to be see. Instead, the ban unintentionally opened the space for unlawful activities that worsened the security problems in the area.

If the as much as 200 kilogrammes of gold could be found in the camp of the now-neutralized bandit leader, Sububu, can you imagine what has been going on with many bandit leaders like him in the last five years?

Yes, the ban has been lifted, as announced by the minister, but the illegal miners are still there. Yes, there was the Presidential Artisanal Gold Miners Initiative (PAGMI), under president Buhari, which was designed to bring the unlicensed fringe actors in the sector within a regulated umbrella. It was designed to ensure that the government and the nation block a revenue and resource leakage, in the interest of the national treasury.

But let us not forget that the whole point of renaming illegal miners and creating a presidential initiative for their “domestication” is for them to be quickly brought within the Standard regulatory Environment (SRE) established for the sector. That is why PAGMI should perhaps be reviewed in such a way that a timeline for integration and better streamlined mining sector determined.  Its relevance to the Solid Minerals Development Fund is understandable, but the ministry must decide now whether PAGMI should be retained in perpetuity.

As mining activities are now set resume in Zamfara, the minister must also consider the predicament of many companies whose facilities and machinery were vandalized and even taken over and badly damaged by illegal miners in the five years that the ban lasted. Yes, banditry is now “degraded” in Zamfara, but it is still there. The ruined communities still have many existential problems to deal with.

It is good that part of what the minster has put in place is a security tax force, known as the Mine Police, also now called Mining Marshal Police by some, to combat illegal mining and smuggling. But we must also worry about their capacities and military firepower, vis-a-vis, the bandits they have to contend with; especially bearing in mind the military grade training of some bandits. The Mining Act guarantees protection for all licensed miners, but it does not guarantee the quality, or dependability, of that protection.

Yet the good news remains. This is what the Minister had to say about the lifting of the ban: “The existential threat to lives and properties that led to the 2019 ban has abated. The security operatives’ giant strides have led to a notable reduction in the level of insecurity, and with the ban on exploration lifted, Zamfara’s mining sector can gradually begin contributing to the nation’s revenue pool”.

One thing is clear, namely, that the lifting of the ban will improve government regulation of mining activities in the state, especially after the “five years eaten by locusts”. It will also improve government revenue and give the mining sector an improved regulatory framework for effective intelligence gathering to combat illegal mining and ensure the nation benefits maximally from the state’s rich mineral resources.

As for the recent controversy surrounding the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Nigeria signed with France, there is no question of Nigeria relinquishing control of its mineral resources to, or entering into any military pact with, France. Not at this point in our national history. So far, available information suggests that the core of the MOU is on training and capacity building for mining professionals. Yes, we need further technical and financial capacity development and support in the sector and some of that can be provided by the French, but not at the expense of our national sovereignty.

Ours is a nation endowed with substantial solid, liquid and gaseous mineral deposits, for which extant internal capacities are not enough. We have such rare endowments as columbite, tantalite, beryl, aquamarine, lithium and tourmaline, besides gold, coal, tin, lead, zinc, limestone, granite, laterite, barite, gypsum, kaolin, marble, iron ore and wolframite. We need to bridge the gap between our natural endowments and our capacity for their exploitation. It is only through clear-eyed technical partnerships, technological support, security of the operating environment and reforms and guaranteed regulatory compliance that the sector can be taken to greater heights.

This ministry must be supported in its efforts to live up to its mandate of helping the nation to maximize the expected benefits of the solid minerals sub-sector. This sector is one sure route to economic diversification and the expansion of revenue streams for the nation.  It is only with well thought out policies, regulatory guidelines, fiscal incentives and effective partnerships that the minister can administer all aspects of mining and mineral exploitation, such as issuance of permits, licenses, leases, collection of rents, fees and royalties, prospecting, quarrying, mining, handling, sale and consumption of solid minerals. And all of this on templates that are guided by global best practices.

In addition to the aforementioned minerals, our lithium, graphite and nickel, which are vital for the global energy transition of today places Nigeria in the spotlight, because of growing interest by global investors and rising global demand for these minerals. The unique opportunity to stan d forth as a key supplier in this emerging market is here with us.

What needs to happen, in addition to the good works being done so far are: (1) Availability and accessibility of high-quality geological data. (2) Popularization of the National Integrated Mineral Exploration Project (NIMEP). (3) Improvements in critical infrastructure, like roads, rail, and power supply. (4) The leveraging of public-private partnerships (PPPs) to fund and develop such infrastructural support services. (5) The review of the existing incentives framework for mining, to determine whether it is sufficiently attractive to investors in the sector. (6) Disaggregating and evaluating fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to ascertain to what extent they are competitive and aligned with investor expectations and global industry practices.

Finally, the ministry and the minister need to keep The Nigeria Mining Week in the front row of their enlightenment and public visibility programmes. It serves as a good forum for networking in the mining sector. The connections made, the opportunities, the conferences and technical sessions from each edition offer great opportunities. Stakeholders are enriched with knowledge, stronger industry connections, and a renewed sense of optimism for the sector’s growth. The minster’s surmising, that Nigeria Mining Week has evolved into more than a gathering of industry experts and is now “a powerful forum where we refine our shared vision, aligning our goals to create a robust, self-reliant mining sector in which Nigeria’s mineral wealth serves as the backbone of economic diversification, job creation, and community development, advancing our national interest for the benefit of every Nigerian” is easy to understand.

Last week’s column on what I called the “relentless Yorubacentric take-over of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC)” based on information I was given by a Yoruba supporter of Tinubu who is close to the circuits of power in the Tinubu presidency drew far more attention than I had anticipated.

Northern politicians like former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai who had defended, or at least had no problems with, Muhammadu Buhari’s never-before-seen provincialism (and who probably hated me for calling it out at the time) used my column as a crutch to get even with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu who threw him under the bus after his full-throated support for his election. Well, such opportunistic pivots are part of Nigeria’s political theater.

However, anyone who follows my public interventions knows that I have no allegiance to any set of narrow, predetermined interests and that my public commentaries are animated by my well-considered estimation of what constitutes Nigerian society’s collective good.

 That’s why I have a revolving door of critics and admirers—praised by one group under one administration, scorned by the same group under another. My principles remain constant, even if public sentiment does not.

 Several of the people who applaud my critiques of a southern president revile and slander me when a northerner is president, and several of the people who are bent out of shape because of my critical columns on Tinubu praised my “bravery” and “truth to power” when I wrote similar columns under Buhari.

This isn’t the reason, of course, for revisiting my column (which I rarely do) because self-interested commendations and condemnations of the expression of critical opinions are natural to the territory of public intellection.

 I am returning to the issue because I felt compelled to clarify an important aspect of last week’s piece. 

A trusted older friend pointed out that Bayo Ojulari, who is rumored to be Tinubu’s pick to succeed Mele Kyari as head of the NNPC, is not merely a Yoruba man but a Yoruba northerner from southern Kwara State. This distinction fundamentally alters the narrative.

Had I known this earlier, I would not have written the column as I did. I have no desire to perpetuate the regressive, ethnocentric narratives that gained prominence during Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency where the North was invidiously dichotomized into a “core” and a “periphery.” 

Northern identity, as historically defined, transcends ethnicity, religion, or geography within the former Northern Region. It is a shared geo-political and cultural construct. 

A northerner is anyone from the former Northern Region irrespective of ethnicity, religion, or location within the region. Being a northerner requires nobody’s approval and isn’t invalidated by anybody’s disapproval.

 As the late Sunday Awoniyi used to say, when Frederick Lugard delineated the North and included his people into it, his ancestors were not consulted; he just found himself a northerner and embraced it because it has defined him since his birth. (The only prominent Yagba people from Kogi State I know who say they are not Yoruba are Professor Etannibi Alemika and prominent journalist Tunde Asaju).

The North isn’t an ethnic group; it’s constructed geo-cultural and political identity that encompasses a diversity of ethnicities. It’s Nigeria’s most complex, ecumenical identity.

 As I pointed out in previous columns, a real, Ahmadu Bello-type northerner would regard Yoruba people from Kwara and Kogi states, or even Igbo people in Ado, Oju, Obi and Okpoku local government areas of Benue State, as integral “regional kin” deserving of every privilege that is accruable to a northerner. 

To argue that certain individuals cannot represent the North based on their ethnicity invites uncomfortable questions about the region’s cultural and political boundaries.

 If Bayo Bashir Ojulari, an Ahmadu Bello University-trained engineer who identifies as a northerner by origin, cannot lead the NNPC because of his Yoruba heritage, then the resentment of Yoruba people in Kwara and Kogi seeking affiliation with the Southwest becomes understandable. 

It becomes intolerably churlish to talk about “outsiders” “dividing” the North, as we like to do when fissiparous tendencies emerge within the region. Either we accept all as northerners, or we fracture the identity entirely.

This clarification is necessary because I do not want to be on record as having opposed Ojulari’s ascension to the headship of the NNPC on account of his ethnicity, especially after realizing that he is a northerner who just happens to share the same ethnicity as the president. 

Ultimately, it’s up to the president to navigate this complex identitarian landmine, but as someone who researches and is writing a book on collective identity construction, it would be remiss of me not to point out that Ojulari’s northern identity is as valid as Kyari’s— or any other northerner from any part of the region.

This admission does not, in any way, take away from my broader point about the Yorubacentric—or more specifically Lagoscentric—provincialism of Tinubu’s government.

The NNPC’s official response to my column, which asserted that merit alone determines staffing decisions, is a load of unvarnished drivel. In a plural society like Nigeria, meritocracy is never the sole determinant of appointments; symbolic representation and political expediency often play decisive roles.

Moreover, the NNPC is far from a paragon of merit-driven excellence. Its inefficiency and dysfunction are legendary. A truly meritocratic organization would not consistently deliver the subpar performance for which the NNPC is infamous.

There are, of course, agencies of government in Nigeria that have distinguished themselves because of the quality of people who head or headed them. 

Given the well-known, inherent weakness of institutions in Nigeria, government agencies habitually assume the character, temperaments, and expertise of their heads. For example, NAFDAC used to be vibrant, visible, and virile because of the vivaciousness and vitality of Dora Akunyili. 

Through her bold leadership, counterfeit drug syndicates were exposed, and public confidence in the agency soared. Tragically, in the years since she left the agency, it has receded into near oblivion. Few now rely on its assurances, which is a far cry from its former prominence. 

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) became a household name and a reference point for fighting corruption in Nigeria because of the vigor, sincerity, and incorruptibility that Nuhu Ribadu brought to his work as its head. 

He famously rejected a $15 million bribe from a politician, an unprecedented act that inspired my paternal uncle to name his son Ribadu. (After letting my uncle know that Ribadu is the name of a town in Adamawa State and not a given name, we still chuckle about the oddity of a Ribadu Kperogi whenever the topic comes up!) Today, the EFCC struggles to maintain even a fraction of the credibility it once had.

The late Hamman Tukur’s fearlessness and forthrightness gave visibility and verve to the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC). Now no one hears about the commission anymore.

 Yemi Kale’s tenure at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) similarly transformed what was once a lackluster agency into a cornerstone of policy and economic analysis. His analytical rigor and commitment to transparency made the NBS a respected institution in Nigeria’s socio-economic landscape. 

Today, however, the NBS struggles to maintain its once-sterling reputation. It has succumbed to the fate of NAFDAC, EFCC, and RMAFC. 

So, I recognize the importance of merit in the choice of leadership.

However, the NNPC isn’t amenable to the merit-driven transformational leadership we saw in NAFDAC, EFCC, RMAFC, and NBS. 

It’s a conduit for patronage and the dispensation of favors to cronies. Choice of its headship is therefore necessarily political. That means people are justified to refract the choice of its leadership from the lenses of Nigerian identitarian politics. 

The President of the Alumni Association of the National Institute (AANI), Ambassador EO Okafor mni, on behalf of the National Executive Committee and the entire AANI family joyfully conveys our heartfelt birthday wishes to a distinguished elder statesman, accomplished law enforcement officer and illustrious member, AIG (Chief) John Olatunji Akanni Alapini (rtd) mni NPM MSc psc (+), SEC 29, 2007, as he marks his 73rd birthday today

AANI is celebrating this outstanding member for his commitment to AANI and immense contribution to national development, peace and security. Chief Alapini’s life story is one of dedication, brilliance, and impactful service to humanity and the nation. Born on January 3, 1952, to the late Chief Antonio Bolaji Alapini and Mrs. Fabiana Atinuke Alapini (née Vera Cruz), Chief Alapini exemplifies excellence and integrity. His educational pursuits, which began at Holy Cross Catholic School in Lagos, St. Gregory’s College, Obalende, Lagos, and St. Peter’s College, Abeokuta, culminated in a Master’s Degree in Criminology from the University College Cardiff, now the University of Wales.

Chief Alapini mni’s illustrious 35-year career in the Nigeria Police Force earned him national and international acclaim. As the Force Public Relations Officer, he showcased the highest ideals of professionalism, enhancing the public image of the Nigeria Police Force. His exemplary service culminated in his retirement as an Assistant Inspector General of Police in 2009.

Beyond his impressive career, Chief Alapini mni is celebrated for his commitment to community development and peacebuilding. His numerous traditional titles—Bobadara of Egbaland, Maiyegun of Owu Kingdom, Aare Agbonfinro of Iperu, Agú Néché Mba (The Lion that protects the Community) of Mbato Ofeme Autonomous Community, Abia State and Otun Oluwo Adimula of Ile-Ife, among others bears eloquent testimony to his selfless service and the high regard in which he is held across diverse communities in our great nation.

His dedication to family values is equally inspiring. For over 40 years, he has shared a loving marriage with his wife, Ibipo, a retired permanent secretary. Together, they are blessed with three accomplished sons and eight grandchildren, reflecting a wonderful legacy of love, discipline, and hard work.

A strong believer in the power of integrity and the importance of a good name, the celebrant embodies the ideals of AANI through his enduring commitment to national development, peace, and security. His unique ability to foster meaningful relationships across social, cultural, and geopolitical divides underscores his exemplary leadership and humanity.

Therefore, on this auspicious occasion of his 73rd birthday celebration, AANI salutes this great man AIG (Chief) John Olatunji Akanni Alapini (rtd) mni for his unparalleled contributions to our nation and our Association. Sir, we celebrate your unwavering dedication to building a better society and wish you continued good health, God’s abundant blessings, and many more years of impactful service.

Happy Birthday, Sir!

Brigadier General SK Usman (rtd) mni

AANI National Publicity Secretary

Under the Privatisation and Commercialisation Act, the Vice President is the chairman of the National Council on Privatisation (NCP), a body that is charged with overseeing the privatisation and commercialisation of public enterprises. 

In utter breach of the Act, President Olusegun Obasanjo sidelined Vice President Atiku Abubakar and took over the privatisation of a number of public enterprises. 

On May 17, 2007, President Obasanjo sold a 51% stake in the Port Harcourt refinery to Bluestar Oil for US$561 million. In another transaction that took place on May 28, 2007, President Obasanjo sold 51% shares in Kaduna Refinery to Bluestar Oil for $160 million. 

Bluestar Oil was a consortium of three domestic companies, including Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil, and Transcop. Before the deal, President Obasanjo had acquired large shares in Transcorp through "blind trust." Many interest groups in the country questioned the legal validity and moral propriety of the sales as they were consummated in the last days of the Obasanjo Administration. 

The two powerful trade unions in the oil industry —the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) kicked against the privatisation of the two refineries on grounds of conflict of interest and lack of due process.

They also alleged that the nation had been shortchanged as the shares acquired in the Port Harcourt refinery for $516 million were worth US$5 billion. 

Convinced that the deals were not in the national interest, both unions proceeded on a 4-day strike that almost paralysed the Nigerian economy in June 2007. 

The strike was called off based on the assurance of the federal government to the effect that the deals would be fully investigated.

Upon the conclusion of the investigation by the federal government, the purported privatisation of the Port Harcout and Kaduna refineries was cancelled by President Umaru Yar’adua. It is on record that the cancellation of the privatisation was not challenged in any court as it was carried out contrary to the letter and spirit of the Privatisation and Commercialisation Act. 

The Alliance on Surviving Covid and Beyond (ASCAB) hereby calls on NUPENG and PENGASSAN to intensify their historical struggle aimed at as a counterpoise to the renewed campaign for the privatisation of the nation’s refineries.  

Those who are awaiting the privatisation of the refineries in a manner at variance with the national interest should be advised to set up their own refineries like the Dangote Group.  

Femi Falana SAN,

The Chair,

Alliance on Surviving 

Covid 19 and Beyond 

(ASCAB).

Warning by the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to Nigerians not to expect the passage of the 2025 budget before January 31, 2025 aptly foretells the uncertainty and gloom that will mark the country’s 2025 economic outlook. Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Publicity, Yemi Adaramodu, said in Abuja that the joint committee of the Senate and House of Representatives on Appropriation would start meeting on January 7, 2025 to take budget defense by heads of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).

He said the earliest the outcome of the joint committee work would be presented for consideration by the Senate would be January 31, 2025. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on Wednesday, December 18, 2024; exactly two weeks to the end of the year. This is contrary to the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) 2007 which stipulates that the Appropriation Bill shall be presented by the President to the National Assembly not later than September 30th of each year.

This late presentation of the national budget by Mr. President connotes the country’s relapse into distorted and uncertain budget cycle, contrary to the regular January to December fiscal year. A national budget is a crucial comprehensive financial plan which outlines a country’s projected income (revenue) and expenses (expenditures) over a fiscal year.

A national budget plays a critical role in shaping a country’s economic policies, allocating resources and promoting sustainable economic growth. It will usually contain the fiscal planning, providing for infrastructural development, debt management (borrowing, repayment, and debt servicing); projecting inflation, interest rates, crude oil production and price levels.

In all jurisdictions, the existence of the national budget makes for transparency and accountability in government spending, ensuring that funds are used efficiently and effectively. Therefore, for each fiscal year, it is the running budget that provides the guide and direction of socio-economic progress or otherwise of the nation.

As it were for Nigeria, that the ‘life’ of the 2024 budget is being extended to some months into 2025 clearly shows the dangers ahead. The socio-political and economic factors at play in 2024 are not necessarily the same for 2025; which is why the budget assumptions for 2025 are markedly different from those of the previous years.

The 2024 budget assumed an inflation rate of 21 per cent; but all through the year, hyperinflationary trend persisted—such that by end-November 2024, the rate stood at 34.6 per cent. Most disturbingly, rather than the Government making an assumption for 2025 in tandem with the spiking inflation rate trend, its 2025 budget proposal carries an utterly unrealistic assumed inflation rate of 15 per cent!

This inflation rate (15 per cent) presents the entire 2025 budget proposal as being built on faulty foundation. This is because more than ever before, the factors driving the high inflationary trend remain very potent. Food scarcity/insecurity in Nigeria is yet at its worst: leading to over 40 per cent food inflation for several consecutive months this year.

Imported inflation also remains active, essentially because of the crashing of the Naira in the foreign exchange (FX) market. The more the quantum of the local currency deployed to procuring the dollar for importation of raw materials, machineries and other inputs, the more costly the finished products—locally. This is a cost-push factor.

The fiscal operations of the Government as well as a huge ‘informal’ economy also lead to so much money in circulation—a lot outside the financial system. This obviously remains one of the core drivers of the high inflationary trend in the economy. In part, this account for why the fight against high inflation by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), using hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has yielded little or no results.

Again, on the part of the Government, it is also too hypothetical to project that crude oil production in 2025 will stand at 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd). In reality, Nigeria in several years has not been able to hit oil production level of 1.5 mbpd. Indeed, the 2024 budget is based on 1.78 mbpd production level—but has never been achieved.

Given what has been happening in the oil and gas sector in Nigeria (and globally) in recent times, it is overly ambitious/optimistic to attain such a huge jump in oil production volume. Raging oil theft, pervasive pipeline vandalism, massive organized sabotage, coupled with energy transition that has seen most International Oil Companies (IOCs) leaving Nigeria in droves—all pose deadly threats to the sector. 

According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production level which stood at 1.4 mbpd in October 2024, only inched up to 1.41 mbpd in November. It is therefore rather otiose or whimsical for the Government to propose the 2025 budget based on an oil production level of 2.06mbpd.

It also beats the imagination as to how the Federal Government arrived at using an exchange rate of N1500 to the US dollar as basis for the 2025 budget. This is as against the subsisting exchange rate of about N1700/$; and which is very likely to deteriorate further in the months ahead.

Indeed, a reputable investment and research company—Afrinvest—in its latest study, has projected that the Naira will depreciate to N1804/$ at the official window of the FX market in 2025. Afrinvest said that it anticipates “that exchange rate volatility would persist in 2025, albeit at a modest pace. Our prognosis is hinged on the belief that the CBN would be constrained from adequately meeting market demand on a consistent basis, as the recent FX reserves accretion was largely driven by inflows from inorganic sources, including those with stringent conditions on usability.”

Afrinvet’s report titled “Beyond the Rhetoric: Transforming Reforms to Tangibles,” detailed a number of factors that could drive the anticipated decline of Naira in the FX market. In this regard it needs be noted that a chunk of the FX reserves is majorly inflow from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FDIs), drawdowns on foreign loans and proceeds of dollar bonds.

The much anticipated rise in oil proceeds is yet to materialize due to the scorching constraints facing the sector; non-oil export is also not experiencing a boom yet. Neither is much coming into Nigeria via Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)—owing to the obviously uncompetitive business environment. No wonder, Nigeria has been witnessing an exodus of many blue chip companies.

Continued dissonance over some critical policies will certainly put a drag on the economy in 2025, and thereafter. Specifically, President Tinubu’s hard stance on the Tax Reform Bills already before the National Assembly is opposed to inclusivity and negotiation. A number of critical stakeholders have called for the withdrawal of those Bills for more consultations and deliberations: the National Economic Council (NEC), Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) and several geo-political groups, to name a few. 

Without a doubt, whatever becomes of those Bills stand to rub off positively or otherwise on the Nigerian economy in 2025 and beyond. Unfortunately, Mr. President’s pronouncement on those Bills during his maiden media chat recently amounted to foreclosure of further discussions on them. Even if the Bills end up being forced down the throat of economic agents, there could be massive hidden resistance to realizing their intendments.  

On the background of all these is the existential threat posed by insecurity in the land. Although the insecurity in the country is shrouded in propaganda, in reality the fragile situation is a serious counterpoise to meaningful investment drive. In all climes, security of life and property is a prerequisite for FDIs and other investment inflows.

In all, it will take something like a miracle for the Nigerian economy to make any appreciable progress in 2025, given the factors analyzed above. In particular, the ‘faulty’ foundation of the 2025 budget makes it prone to a multiplicity of pitfalls. It’s all a leap in the dark!

The author, Okeke, a practicing Economist, Business Strategist, Sustainability expert and ex-Chief Economist of Zenith Bank Plc, lives in Lekki, Lagos.  

The Chief Executive Officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr. Karl Toriola, has said telecom operators in the country have made a request of approximately 100% increase to ensure the industry’s sustainability rather than boost short-term profitability.

Speaking during an interview on Arise TV, the telecoms executive detailed the financial pressures facing operators and their potential impact on service delivery, employment, and overall economic growth.

According to him, the telecom industry is now facing a sustainability threat that must be addressed through a tariff review.

He, however, noted that the telecom regulator, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), may not approve the 100% increase requested.

“We’ve put forward a request of approximately 100% tariff increases to the regulators. I doubt they’re going to approve that quantum of increases because they’re very sensitive to the current economic situation in the country,” he said. 

Rising costs in a challenging economy 

While emphasising that telecommunications is a fundamental human right and a critical element for driving an economy, Toriola noted that without a sustainable industry, the economy and the well-being of Nigerians will suffer.

• He highlighted how inflation, foreign exchange devaluation, and rising energy prices have drastically increased operational expenses for telecom operators.
• According to him, diesel costs have risen from pre-COVID levels of N230 to over N1,000 per liter.
• The official exchange rate has shifted from N424.50 to about N1,550 at the end of 2024, drastically increasing the cost of importing critical infrastructure like base stations, which now cost nearly four times more than they did two years ago.

“These cost increases are outpacing revenue growth. If large operators like MTN and Airtel are struggling, the impact on smaller players and the ecosystem is even more severe,” he explained.  

Impacts on employment and economic growth

Toriola added that the telecom sector’s financial strain threatens its ability to sustain jobs and contribute to economic growth.

According to him, MTN alone accounts for over 2 million direct and indirect jobs, and any contraction in the industry would ripple across the economy.

“This is not just about profitability; it’s about survival. If the industry constricts, employment and commercial activities around it will constrict as well,” the CEO warned. 

“If we have an outlook that’s not sustainable, imagine what’s happening to the small operators, because what forex devaluation does to us is: With foreign exchange liabilities, which we have on our balance sheet, and those could be foreign exchange loans or lease obligations, every time there’s a shift in the exchange rate, we have to make provisions for those liabilities,” he added. 

Government support  

The MTN CEO, however, acknowledged the Nigerian government’s efforts in supporting the industry, through some initiatives aimed at sustaining the industry.

Specifically, he cited the recent declaration of telecom infrastructure as Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) as a move that would ensure the protection of the industry’s investments.

• He also noted the plans to roll out 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable under the leadership of Minister Dr. Bosun Tijani, which is aimed at accelerating digital penetration.
• Toriola also commended the efforts of the regulators in addressing sector indebtedness and quality of service obligations.
• While optimistic about the industry’s future, he called for more targeted measures to address sustainability challenges, including tariff adjustments and continued collaboration between regulators and operators.

What you should know 

The two telecom industry associations, the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON) and The Association of Telecommunication Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), have been at the forefront of advocacy for tariff review in the industry for over two years, citing an increase in costs of operations.

In a joint statement by the two bodies, the operators said the telecom industry is the only industry that has not reviewed its prices despite the rising inflation in the country and other economic realities that warrant increment.

• They blamed this on the regulatory restraints that have been preventing them from pricing appropriately.

• The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) regulates prices in the telecom industry and telecom operators are not allowed to implement any price change without the regulator’s approval.
• The regulator has said a cost-based study is being conducted to determine if it would approve price increments for the operators.

[Nairametrics]

Controversial music sensation, Habeeb Okikiola Badmus popularly known as Portable, on Thursday, failed to perform in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital where he was scheduled to thrill the audience at the concert organised by Fuji star, Alhaji Taye Akande Adebisi, famously known as Taye Currency.

Portable drew the ire of the Ibadan people after a comment in a viral video late last year in the heat of a conflict between him and his ex-lover, Queen Dami, where he dissed the Ibadan and Oyo people of not owning buildings with Plaster-of-Paris (PoP).

Okikiola took to his social media to show the apartment he rented for his estranged lover in a video with POP embellishment, saying such facilities were not obtainable in Oyo and Ibadan in Oyo State.

The comment drew condemnations among people with many expressing disgust with the singer’s disregard for the people of both places.

He was however invited by Taye Currency to perform in Ibadan for the Fuji sensation’s New Year Concert on Thursday January 2, 2025 but the Zazu crooner was visibly absent to take the stage when it was his turn.

Fearing the consequences of his earlier utterances, the singer had begged for forgiveness prior to the concert from the Ibadan people after his invitation by Taye Currency.

LEADERSHIP understands that the singer was advised against mounting the stage over security concerns even when he was already in the city.

The advice, our correspondent learnt, was anchored on the unlikely backlash that may accompany his PoP comment, which many feared could spark unintended reactions from the Ibadan fans.

His failure to perform was against the assurances by the Oyo State Police Command to guarantee adequate security at the just concluded concert.

[Leadership]