City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Akinwunmi Braithwaite (National Rescue Movement (NRM) ) Gubernatorial Candidate

Topic: 2023 Lagos State Gubernatorial race

Date: 5TH NOVEMBER, 2022

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“My own brother!”

“What’s up men? Have you gone to deposit all the N200, N500, N1,000 notes that you have at home in the banks so you can exchange them for new notes by the deadline of January 31.”

“What is my business with depositing old notes in the banks? I don’t keep money at home. I don’t have the kind of money the Central Bank of Nigeria is looking for.”

“The CBN did not say they are looking for money. They simply want to manage money supply better. Out of about N3.7 trillion in circulation, more than N2 trillion is outside the banking system. The Central Bank wants to call in all of the N3.7 trillion, and then send it back into the system. This is something other Central Banks do every five or eight years. The last time Nigeria printed new currency notes was 20 years ago, and besides, the CBN is just doing its job.” 

“Listen to yourself. They just want N3.7 trillion brought back into the banking system. They are not looking for people who are likely to faint if they see a billion Naira cash. Did you not hear the President? He said the people they are looking for are people with illicit money. Those people who hide money inside overhead water tanks, in cemeteries and other corner-corner places. The people who speak in billions, and who cannot take their money to the banks. Government wants them to bring out the money. E no concern me. I no get any illicit money. Na dem dem.” 

“The cash component of money in circulation affects everyone. Even your small amount that you have at home, even if it is a few thousands, once it is in the N200, N500 or N1,000 denominations, you have to take it into the bank.”

“But I thought the Minister of Finance has said she is not aware of the policy and that it could have grave consequences.”

“The Minister of Finance does not know what she is talking about apparently. The CBN does not report to her. The CBN is in charge of monetary policy in line with Section 2 of the Central Bank Act of 2007. The Minister of Finance is in charge of fiscal policy, and in any case the Board of the CBN has among its members the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, and the Accountant General of the Federation.”

“But did the CBN Board discuss this plan to print new currency notes?” 

“I am not in a position to know. And well, what does it matter? The President of Nigeria has said that the CBN has his backing. Under Section 19 of the CBN Act, the Bank is required to request authorization from the President with regard to three things: its Annual Report, if it wants to invest outside Nigeria, and if it wants to make alterations to the currency. We have heard from the CBN twice that it acted within the province of the law. We have also heard the President publicly telling everyone that the CBN is in order. Please, who is Minister of Finance?”

“You mean who is the constituted authority?” 

“I leave that to you to decide”.

“But why the secrecy? Is it that these people don’t trust each other? I understand this same President did the same thing in 1984.We need proper alignment between fiscal policy and the monetary side of things”

“The country’s national currency is a matter of national security. It is not everything that you tell everybody before you take action. In this country, people are always looking for a way to cheat and game the system. If you disclose your plans, they can share with others and before you know it, your proposals will die even before they become policy.”

“Particularly those politicians who have hidden money away to do serious battle during the 2023 general election. We have seen it before: “dibo ko se obe o” meaning vote for our party and prepare a pot of soup today. Stomach infrastructure. Election sandwich. But in any case, politicians keep their money in dollars, not Naira.”

“Nigeria’s currency is the Naira, not the dollar. The dollarization of the Nigerian economy is an indication of fundamental problems in the management of our economy.”

“I will rather have dollar, please”

“But both are connected. The dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world, that is why when the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve raises rates, the effect is felt globally. Those who have money keep dollar, and buy dollar, as a wedge against the Naira, and that is why immediately after the CBN announced the plan to redesign the three currency notes, the Naira immediately depreciated in the parallel market, in less than a week, it has moved from N778 to the dollar to N865 to the dollar, with implications for inflation. This is why many economists are nervous about the cost of the policy.”    t

“Ha. What a country!”

“What is funny?”

“The way Nigerians are experts in everything…If the subject is security, everybody is a security expert, if it is a legal matter, even my mechanic would argue that he knows better than judges, and now that the matter is the redesign of the new notes, everybody is now an economist, lawyer and analyst join on top!”

“But people have a right to express opinions about something that can affect their lives. Things like cost, effect on the Naira and the foreign exchange and why now? Because of politics, government is redesigning Naira notes close to Christmas and election?”

“I know, and I think that is why Sheik Ahmad Gumi says kidnappers will start collecting ransom in dollars and that government is about to commit economic suicide by asking people to deposit their money in the banks!”

“Sheik Gumi is an educated man. He is a medical doctor, a retired Captain of the Nigerian army and a respected cleric. But is he an economist?” 

“Are you an economist?”

“I don’t go about reading the mind of kidnappers.” 

“You don’t get the point. Where were you when Primate Elijah Ayodele of the INRI Church asked President Buhari to sack the CBN Governor because the plan to redesign some dominations of the Naira will not stop terrorism or insecurity. Is that from the Bible or the Primate’s personal opinion? Ah, this country! This was how one prophetess was also quoted copiously by a section of the media saying the reason there is flood across parts of the country is because the goddess of the river is angry.”

“This thing called free speech and its dangers.”  

“Let me ask you something? Can the Banks handle the massive pressure that the rush to deposit old notes in the banks will cause? Why is the allotted time for deposit and access to new N200, N500 and N1,000 notes so short? The last time the UK changed some of its currency notes, it gave the people up to one year.” 

“I believe that is a legitimate thing to worry about. But you know your country. People will wait till the last minute before they begin to act. I think the CBN needs to do a lot more to enlighten the people. The deadline of January 31^st can still stand, then after the election, government can announce an extension. That is the way I see it.”   

“But these new notes that everybody is talking about. Will the banks pay depositors with new notes? In this country, the only place you can see new notes is at event centres during weekend parties. People hawk the Naira the way they sell serviette papers and they do so at a premium. But you go to the banks, what you can get is mutilated, smelly notes. What can the CBN do about that? The threat to this economy is not just those parallel market dealers, but the mint Naira merchants on the streets.” 

“What I know is that it is an offence to sell the Naira like a commodity, mutilate it, deface it or step on it, but nobody enforces the law.”

“But I hear this time around, EFCC has read the riot act, that anybody that is found playing hanky-panky with money will be dealt with according to the law. In fact, EFCC officers will be deployed to all banking halls to monitor how people bring in money to the banks.”

“That’s funny. How many banks can the EFCC monitor? There is a reporting mechanism in place if you do money transactions beyond certain thresholds. Banks have structures in place to inform the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) or the EFCC. They only need to deepen their infrastructure. By the way, the CBN is hoping that through this exercise, it can deepen financial inclusion and intermediation.”  

“I hear the politicians have come up with a plan to delay the redesign of the denominations.”

“Tell me.”

“I understand that there is a case in court challenging the Arabic inscriptions on the Naira notes” 

“It is called Ajami”

“Ajami or Arabic. Some lawyers are saying all that needs to be done is to get an injunction to stop the CBN because until the matter before the court is determined, the proposed redesign of the notes will be sub judice.” 

“Court?”

“Yes, court.” 

“Okay, we are here. We will see. Have you not read that the CBN will not remove the Ajami on the Naira notes? They have been on that matter since 2020. They will still be on it by the time your grandson graduates from college.” 

“Well, bros, let us drop matter. I have discussed this matter so much I am beginning to think something is wrong with me. I don’t want to die in their war. If they want to change the colour of money, let them do so. Wetin be my own? I am more concerned about the future the 2023 general elections.  INEC has announced that the voters’ register now has 93. 5 million voters and that the register would be displayed and reviewed in 8, 809 wards and 774 local government areas from Nov. 12- 25. Quite a lengthy list of voters – about 9.3 million pages long.  How do I go through that?”

“I am sure you can. But what I find interesting about the new register is the demographics: 12. 29 million new voters added to the register out of which about 2.78 million were found to be illegal registrants.”

“INEC said 23 INEC officers aided and abetted the illegal registration. Those persons must be punished!”

“I agree but talking about the demographics, I was going to say that when you look at the breakdown, the largest number of registered voters are young people between the ages of 18 – 34- that is - 76.5% of the total, followed by women – 50.8% and students – 40.8%. It is thus clear that the 2023 general election will be determined by women and youths. And the major battle grounds will be Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Rivers and Katsina which have the highest number of voters. In general, the bulk of the voters are from the seven states of the North West. The political parties have a lot of work to do to mobilize the voters to prevent voter apathy. We must also ensure that INEC gets the Permanent Voters Cards ready for collection and that the people collect them. It is not enough for anyone’s name to be on the voter’s register. You must have your PVC and you must go out to vote on election day.”

“My own is that nobody should tamper with BVAS – the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System that will prevent rigging and manipulation on election day.  The days of multiple voting should come to an end, and it is good that INEC has promised that this piece of technology and innovation, an advancement on the smart card reader, would be fully deployed to keep the riggers out.”  

“You are correct. On point.”

“I am always on point”.

“No, not always” 

“I am on point for example to say that the Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Senator Iyorchia Ayu had no point boasting that he has the powers to stop Governor Samuel Ortom’s Senatorial ambition and that of others in the Party who may be interested in other positions. He also didn’t have to boast that nobody can sack him. That is provocative. The party Chairman, no matter the provocation should always try to unify his own base and not make divisive comments” 

“A man has a right to stand up for himself. Governor Wike and his allies have been bullying Senator Ayu for months. It is now his turn to cry out and fight back.”

“We’re talking leadership. No party chairman can boast that he will stop anybody. The Electoral Act 2022 spells out clearly how an elective office seeker can be stopped. It does not give any God-like powers to the party leader. Besides, a leader is like a refuse dump.  The refuse dump does not choose which garbage they throw on it.” 

“Is that a metaphor or a proverb? You better talk straight because the young people these days are not interested in any form of round-about thinking. Don’t tell them anything about words and palm oil. No. These ones are the Shawarma generation.  They were brought up with groundnut oil, not palm oil!”

“But just see how Wike has attacked the PDP party Chairman telling him that Governor Ortom was his guarantor without whom he could not have been party Chairman. Or Governor Seyi Makinde sending a representative to a meeting between Afenifere and the APC Presidential candidate in Pa Reuben Fasoranti’s home in Akure.”

“Please, I don’t want to comment any further on that Afenifere subject. Let Afenifere resolve their own internal crisis.” 

“Afenifere is a conclave of elders. The elders will decide.”  

“This is a democracy.  They can decide for themselves as individual citizens and as persons who are entitled to one vote. But I abhor group-think, or herd mentality or any intimations of it.  People are free to endorse or not endorse whoever they want but the pillar of democracy is the right of the people to make their own informed choice, freely, without let or hindrance.”  

“I think I hear sef say that una Baba don go London again for medical check- up oh”

“My friend, are you okay?”

On September 29, the National Peace committee led by General Abdusalami Abukakar and the Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah organized an event in Abuja where Presidential candidates of the political parties for the 2023 general elections signed an accord to give peace a chance, avoid violence and respect the rule of law and order. It was meant to be the first in a series of peace-building efforts by the National Peace Committee which this year expanded its fold, by involving the participation of key figures in corporate Nigeria including Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Mr. Femi Otedola, and other leaders such as the Sultan of Sokoto, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, Mr. Sam Amuka Pemu and Justice Roseline Ukeje. Founded in 2014, the National Peace Committee has had a strong track record of reminding political gladiators that Nigerian elections or leadership contests are not a do or die phenomena, and should not be so. This is a useful message and mission statement. 

It is important, without doubt, that elections are peaceful and that politicians behave decently. In retirement, General Abdusalami Abubakar has dedicated himself to preaching about peace and stability. He offers good service in that regard. He has a good associate in Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah, who in every sense, is also a patriot. The inclusion of others over the years is a welcome development, to remind everyone that elections must not result in chaos. The stakes in 2023 appear to be quite high, much higher than in previous elections, and these may well prove to be for Nigerians like no other elections since the return to civilian rule in 1999. 

It is unfortunate however and most disturbing that the politicians who signed a Peace Accord in September 2022, and their surrogates as well, are disowning the same accord by conduct, and by their utterances.  Since September when the Independent National Electoral Commission blew the whistle that campaigns could begin, in fact before then, and thereafter, there have been reports of violence, intolerance, hate speech, foul language, vitriol, abuse, harassment and general bad faith. The candidate of the Labour party, Mr Peter Obi has had to raise questions about attacks on his supporters in Enugu, Nasarawa, Ebonyi and Lagos states. In the first week of September, gunmen threatened Peter Obi’s supporters in Enugu.  The supporters were holding a meeting in Awga community. Four unknown gunmen suddenly showed up around 5.00 pm and opened fire on Obi’s supporters. They shot in the air, and disrupted an on-going meeting.  A day earlier some members of the same party were also attacked in Nenwe, in Aniniri LGA in the same Enugu State.

About a week later, Obi’s supporters were again attacked in Ebonyi state. This time, the Nigeria Police was identified as the assailants.  In a statement, the Labour Party’s National Publicity Secretary accused the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, of using the police to promote the politics of violence. To add to the evidence, in Abakaliki, Obi’s supporters were said to have been tear-gassed by the police. In October, Obi’s supporters, known as “flag boys” were also brutalized in Lagos. The flag boys were accused of carrying Peter Obi’s flags around Oshodi in Lagos, and they got beaten by thugs working for another political party. They were in fact lucky. There was an attempt to burn them alive!  In Nasarawa state, Joshua Alamu  who took part in a solidarity sensitization campaign for Peter obi was also attacked. He eneded up in the hospital. The Labour Party again issued a statement asking for protection. 

But the Labour party is not alone. When the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)) held its rally recently in Kaduna, the main issue was that the party’s supporters were attacked, and injured. Thugs reportedly invaded the venue of the rally and started beating people up. Both the PDP Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and former Senate President, Senator Bukola Saraki condemned the incident. The attackers wielded swords and machetes! Before that, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah representing Anambra South in the National Assembly was also ambushed and attacked at Enugwu-Ukwu in Njikoka LGA of Anambra State.  He is seeking a Second term in office. We have also heard in this reason, reports of verbal violence, and threats by politicians. In many states of the Federation, opposition parties are not allowed to put up posters or billboards and when they do, the posters are destroyed. In Lagos State, the candidate of the PDP has had to protest that he is being targeted by the ruling APC and its henchmen. Last Saturday, the convoy of the PDP Gubernatorial candidate, Olajide Adediran and his Deputy, Funke Akindele was attacked at the Ikoga Junction area of Badagry Local Government area of Lagos State.  Some journalists and other members of the entourage sustained injuries. IN many states, the state-owned broadcast media behave m0re or less like campaign units of the ruling party in utter violation of the National Broadcasting Code.   

The growing spate of violence is a bad comment on the letter and spirit of the peace accord signed on September 19 by leaders of the political parties. It shows that our political leaders have not learnt any lessons and would stop at nothing, no matter how heinous to achieve their objectives. We have gone through this route before. Between 1999 and 2007, many politicians were killed in the lead up to election seasons. The assassinations remain unresolved, including the brutal assassination of Chief Bola Ige, a sitting Attorney General of the Federation in December 2001.  Others include Marshall Harry, chairman of the Rivers State ANPP, in 2003, Engr Funsho Williams in July 2006, Dr. Ayo Daramola, PDP Governorship aspirant in Ekiti in August 2006, Dele Arojo in Lagos, 2002, Ogbonnaya Uche, killed in his home in Owerri in 2003, Chief Aminasaoari Dikibo in October 2004, Abigail and Barnabas Igwe, in September 2002, Dipo Dina in January 2010, Odunayo Olagbaju, in December Ile Ife in 2001 and Chukwudi Okafor in Umuawukwu, Awka South, Anambra in 2009.  to name a few. Nobody deserves to die for seeking to serve his or her country or to participate in the democratic process.

Politics must not mean death or violence. It is in fact terrible that political assassinations are never resolved in this country. It is one of the reasons people refer to Nigerian politics as dirty, and why some of the best persons in society who could make a difference stay away from the political arena. The laws of the land, including the Electoral Act criminalize violence before, during and after elections, in clear affirmation that politicians and their agents must not take the law into their hands, but the reality is that Nigerian politicians think that politics is a do-or-die affair. Hence, they talk violently. They behave violently. They surround themselves with violent assistants, otherwise known as able-bodied men or thugs. Some of the thugs even bear fanciful official titles and wield such enormous influence that would be considered obscene in civilized societies. They kill. They maim. They and their masters have turned Nigerian politics into a criminal enterprise. Politicians need to know that the recruitment of these armed assistants is a double-edged sword. They could turn against you and become your source of problems. Don’t give them drugs or dangerous weapons. It turns their heads.  

The big threat as we prepare for the 2023 elections, is beyond ethnicity and religion, this criminality, that is the desperation of the political profiteers and their agents, the thinking that politics is a zero-sum game. The evidence is again writ large in the language of the politicians and the conduct of their supporters.  At the signing of the Peace Accord, the Inspector General of Police said openly that the police are ready to keep the peace and protect law and order. It is about six months to the elections and the police and other security agencies are failing the people, and the state. It is not too early to call politicians who are promoting violence directly or vicariously to order. The security agencies know the thugs, their masters and sponsors. To look the other way for selfish gain as is customary during election seasons would amount to using the state and its apparatuses to aid and abet crime. Security agents must stay away from partisan politics.  They must maintain complete neutrality otherwise 2023 could turn out as yet another blow-out moment in Nigerian history. It should be a turning point for good and that I assume, is the expectation of all who have the interest of this country at heart. The security agencies must become pro-active and take preventive measures. They must not behave like lawyers, thugs, and associates of politicians who see election season as “chop-time”.

Since I wrote the piece titled “The Floods This Time’ on this same page (ThisDay, Tuesday, October 11, 2022), the situation with the floods have worsened. The reports indicate that over 600 persons have died, about 2 million persons have been displaced. The most shocking report for me was the declaration by some newspapers that former President Goodluck Jonathan’s house in Bayelsa is also heavily flooded and that communities including Otuoke where he hails from have been submerged.  One cheeky editor had the temerity to cast the headline that President Goodluck Jonathan is now an Internally Displaced Person (IDP). Editors and their funny attempts to attract the reader’s attention. But I get the point being made, that floods are no respecters of persons: from Kogi to Plateau, to Anambra and elsewhere, houses have been taken over by floods and both the rich and the poor alike are affected. 

In the face of natural disaster, or state failure, both the rich and the poor pay the price. We have been told that food inflation would be higher by December, farms having been destroyed by the floods and the harvest season completely turned adrift. The poor and the rich go to the same market. We share a common humanity. So bad is the flood crisis this year that it has attracted international attention including a message from King Charles III of England who has written to express concern and solidarity with the people and government of Nigeria over the loss of lives due to “devastating floods”. Thank you, your Majesty.   

But it is painful that we have not seen as much concern from Nigerian leaders. It took the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi suspending his campaigns for the 2023 elections for other political parties to realize that this was indeed a serious issue. In Agege, the other day, a man was swept away by the flood. It is the same story of woe and tragedy in Bayelsa, Anambra, Plateau, Kogi and elsewhere. In Azikoro Government Cemetery in Bayelsa state, corpses were washed out of their resting places. The terrible disaster that is looming is imaginable: health challenges, loss of assets, destruction of properties, a public health crisis. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency and the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMET) claim that we have not yet seen the worst. In Lagos state, people living in low-lying areas have been advised to move upland. Will the people listen? We never seem to listen because being Nigerians, we don’t trust persons who work in government. We tend to believe the worst about officialdom.

The truth nonetheless, is that in the face of all of this, not much effort has been put in by the National Emergency Management Agency, the government or philanthropists. In addition to the attention that Mr. Peter Obi, the media and others have drawn to the problem, we have seen some Governors travelling in canoes, donating relief materials and taking pictures.  The Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is also scheduled to tour some of the flood-ravaged states. The APC and LP Presidential candidates have donated money. Friends of Senator Seriake Dickson have done so too. The point must be made though that this is beyond politics. Nobody should exploit the people’s plight for political advantages.  In 2012, the Jonathan administration set up a Flood Relief Committee led by Alhaji Aliko Dangote and Olisa Agbakoba, SAN. At the time, government provided about N17.6 billion as relief funds to assist states and communities across the country. The Federal Government today needs to intervene even more robustly. And by the way, I omitted an important detail.  Just yesterday, we got to hear that “President Muhammadu Buhari has directed the Minister of Water Resources to lead and coordinate with the ministries of environment and transportation as well as state governments to develop a comprehensive plan of action for preventing flood disaster in Nigeria.”  The President expects a report in 90 days! 

Those who want to lead Nigeria may be enjoying the photo-ops that the flood tragedy offers, but as part of the on-going campaigns, we would need concrete ideas about what each candidate intends to do about climate change, the rainfall that causes floods, the dams that flood the low-lying plains, including the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon. Otherwise, by this time, next year, we would be back to square one complaining about the same problems in typical Nigeria fashion. In 90 days from now, we would probably begin to have an idea.  

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar on Tuesday jetted off to Europe on business.

The development was confirmed by his media aide, Paul Ibe in a statement released on Tuesday amidst speculation that Atiku has ill health.

Ibe, however, stated that the former vice president travelled out of the country for purely business.

Naija News gathered that the former Senate President, Bukola Saraki and the former lawmaker representing Kogi West Senatorial district, Dino Melaye followed Atiku on his trip to Europe.

Atiku travelled out of Nigeria in the middle of the presidential campaign of the main opposition party.

The Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Ndudi Elumelu and an associate of the presidential candidate Timi Frank were seen with him.

See the pictures below:

Meanwhile, a former Minister of Aviation, Femi Fani-Kayode has claimed that the former Vice President travelled out of the country because he is ill.

Fani-Kayode stated this in a post on his Twitter handle on Tuesday.

The former minister claimed that Atiku collapsed after returning to Abuja after the PDP presidential campaign rally in Kaduna on Monday.

He claimed that the former vice-president had complained of dizziness and severe pains in his head.

[NaijaNews]

What is going on in Great Britain right now is ironic. A few weeks ago, we celebrated the same Britain on account of the glory and grandeur of the life, times, example, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II – the country’s longest reigning monarch in history and one of the most influential figures of the 20^th and 21^st Centuries. But today, the same Britain is the laughing stock of the world, all because of leadership, politics, and mismanagement of the economy. The Empire may have ended, but Britain remains one of the most powerful countries of the world, a country that others look up to, a member of the G7, with London as a major centre of capital and investment in the Eurozone. 

But something has happened to them in that same Great Britain - to try an African manner of speech. The other day, the IMF/World Bank, the Bretton Woods Institutions, before and at their annual meeting in Washington DC were forced to express concern about the UK economy and the trickle-down economic policies of the Liz Truss administration – 49p cut in tax rates for the rich, proposed increase in corporation tax, cutting of benefits and spending, and no clear thoughts about how the cuts would be funded – all of which could spur growth, theoretically, but would result in inflation and poverty. The IMF most unusually broke away from tradition and openly criticized a G7 economy. It got so bad that even the Greek Prime Minister is offering to help Britain if it needs advice on how to manage the economy. The German Ambassador in London is also, against diplomatic protocols, putting his mouth in the matter. We can add to this insult upon the injury situation, the fact that President Joe Biden of the United States while buying and licking ice cream at a shop in Oregon, US took time out to comment that the turmoil that Britain now faces was predictable because nobody funds growth. “with unfunded tax cuts.” From ice cream shops to the hallowed halls of Washington DC, Britain has become the butt of jokes with implications for diplomacy, business, investments, leadership and the markets. 

But it seems to me that rather than laugh at the current British leadership, there are lessons that can be learnt from their experience, precisely the chaos that the country is currently facing. On this same page, we acknowledged the British and praised the fact that Boris Johnson, former British PM and others had to lose their positions and offices because the system out there resolved that those in positions of leadership cannot set one set of rules for themselves and another set for the people that they lead. Bo-Jo and gang had to go because they used official privilege to break the law, and the people objected. This led to a new round of leadership selection within the Conservative Party. If this were in Nigeria, however, Boris Johnson would still be in office. His kith and kin would have played the ethnic and religious card, in fact, he himself would have hired thugs to break up any attempt to challenge him. But the British held firm and pushed him and all the law breakers out. On this same page and elsewhere, we praised the British when the Tories launched a leadership contest to find a replacement for Boris Johnson as new leader of the party and new Prime Minister. It was a keenly contested race, elimination round by round, which eventually produced four front-runners including Nigerian-born Kemi Badenoch- Chief Femi Adegoke’s daughter- but in the end Liz Truss won, with Rishi Sunak a close second. We felt we had seen democracy at work. The party had decided. The Tories had moved beyond Boris Johnson. 

It is in the nature of politics that nothing is ever certain and mistakes can be made. During the Tories campaign, the major issue was what to do with the British economy. The war in Ukraine with Russia had up-ended everything: Britain was faced with a cost-of-living crisis, high energy prices and rising inflation.  Liz Truss who became the frontrunner promised to fix the economy by cutting taxes for the rich, scrap planned increase in corporation tax and cut spending; reverse national insurance rise, cut energy bills, delay payment of COVID debt, curtail the powers of the Bank of England, take on the Northern Ireland Protocol, scrape regulations post-Brexit, reduce UK dependence on China and so on. Sunak, who had been Chancellor of the Exchequer, promised that he would also cut taxes, but only after getting runaway inflation under control.   He dismissed Truss’s plans as unworkable, supported lower taxes in the long term, promised VAT cuts on energy bills, 4 per cent cut in income tax by 2024, and increase corporation tax. He condemned Truss’s BoE proposals, the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, Rwanda deportation plan, and promised not to engage Putin, but he would oppose China, and close down Chinese Institutes. He ruled out second Scottish independence referendum. In the last lap of the race, both leading contestants told 175, 000 voting Tories that they could do the job. In the end, the party chose Mary Elizabeth Truss, 47, former Foreign Secretary and Member of Parliament for South West Norfolk since 2010 as leader of the party and Prime Minister. On September 5, 2022, she became the fourth Tory Prime Minister in six years since David Cameron, 2010 -2016, Theresa May, 2016 -2017, and Boris Johnson, 2019 – 2021. 

She has spent only six weeks in office and now, the popularity that brought her to power has vanished. Even Prince Andrew is more popular than her in the polls. If a general election were to be called today, the Conservatives would lose by a landslide, the Labour Party being ahead in many constituencies. How did Liz Truss go so quickly in less than 50 days from being the people’s favourite to becoming so unpopular, a Prime Minister whose political future hangs in the balance, and who may end up as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in British History? Her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng is already the shortest ever serving Chancellor of the Exchequer. He was sacked on Friday as the scapegoat for the turmoil into which Britain has been thrown. Truss has presided over a chaotic Conservative Party conference. She has lost the support of business, investors, members of her own cabinet, and the people. Over the weekend, members of her party told the public that the game was up for her. Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee of Back Benchers was detailed to tell her the truth. It would be a miracle if she survives the crisis, having lost credibility – an important asset for a Prime Minister.   

The death of Trussonomics is a cautionary tale.  Politicians must learn not to over-promise. The British have proven that you cannot come to the people, promise Heaven and Earth and hope you can get away with whatever you throw at them. Truss promised the people growth. He appointed Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor. But the growth plan in form of an emergency plan, or mini-budget presented by the government simply complicated things: sell-offs in the bond market, uncertainties with the pound sterling, further rise in the cost of living and a gaping black hole in government finance, with a rise in the cost of debts, and mortgage. In a country where accountability is key, no politician can hoodwink the people and play games with the people’s fortunes and future. Liz Truss and Kwarteng could not tell anyone how the huge deficit would be funded. In Nigeria, the story would have been that the critics are jealous or that they are of a certain ethnic extraction. The simple lesson is that politicians must learn not to over-promise. Nigerian politicians promise heaven and earth. They promote manifesto and covenants that even the principal candidate has neither read nor seen. When they are taken up on the issues later, they are ever ready to say they never heard of such a policy. Every major stakeholder in the UK is attentive. Position and power come with responsibility and accountability. Andrew Bailey, BoE Governor whose independence Truss was threatening to curtail is now gloating and blaming Kwasi Kwarteng for “flying blind”.  He even had to step in with the Bank’s brief intervention and now he says interest rates would go up higher than expected from 2.3% to 3.5%. He is taking his pound of flesh, as it were. In Nigeria, even in the midst of a similar turmoil, he would have been fired. The system would have found something to hang on his neck and shut him up. Spokespersons loyal to the government of the day would have torn him to pieces with disparaging press releases. But Bailey and the Bank of England are not being targeted because it is clear to the British that Truss and Kwarteng flunked Economics 101 and brought the people greater misery. 

Kwasi Kwarteng, the Ph.D in Economic History wonder kid, and brainy master of University Quiz who served briefly as Chancellor has been fired. He had to leave the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington DC earlier than scheduled, and his return flight was one of the most tracked flights in recent history. He had boasted that he was not going anywhere, and that his economic plan was secure. What we have seen is that the job does not belong to him. It belongs to the British people. You may say he has been fired because someone has to take the fall, but the truth is that the British run a system where nobody is rewarded for inefficiency or misconduct. While I understand the position that Truss herself should go, having placed the future of the Conservative party in peril, the point for us as Nigerians is that if this had been in Nigeria, Kwarteng’s position that he was not going anywhere would have prevailed. People in powerful positions in Nigeria behave as if is a hereditary privilege for them to enjoy proximity to power. They get appointed not because of their knowledge or proven competence but because of who they know. When they fail, they are sustained by the same factors. The British system self-corrects because its institutions are strong. The Nigerian system self-destructs because its institutions are either weak, compromised or non-existent.   

In the midst of the. political, economic and social turmoil, PM Liz Truss has now gone to appoint Jeremy Hunt as replacement for Kwarteng.  Hunt supported Rishi Sunak in the race for the PM’s office. Last weekend, he granted an interview in which he dismantled and buried Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget. Yesterday at the House of Commons, he did further damage. He ditched the government’s mini-budget that was announced three weeks ago. When the PM showed up at the Commons, she was quiet. Jeremy Hunt, who has little experience in economic matters was practically pushing different ideas. On October 31, it would be his duty to present the much-talked about fiscal plan. Hunt’s appointment is the equivalent of running to the friend of your opponent to help you. In Nigeria and other African countries, that would never happen. Our leaders here are so egoistic, they only see the world in a binary scope of friends and enemies. Sacking Kwarteng and bringing in Jeremy Hunt is a last-minute attempt by Truss to save her position. We are reminded of Abraham Lincoln’s Team of Rivals. When you think you are perplexed, look for the best people wherever they may be, including among the ranks of ideological opposites, if possible. In Nigeria, our leaders are only interested in sycophants and rent-seekers. Can you imagine a man who supported a rival being given a Minister of Finance position and then he goes to parliament, as Hunt has done, to throw the same government’s policy under the bus in less than one week of his appointment? I can bet such an appointee’s name will never appear on Nigeria’s national honours list! In fact, his house could be set ablaze. His wife may be abducted! 

But would Jeremy Hunt’s recruitment help? Our gut feeling is that so much damage has been done in six weeks, it would take businesses, the market and the sterling quite a while to recover. When a country like Great Britain goes through so much turbulence as we are seeing, then we need to be more careful in these parts. We need to pay better attention to our leadership recruitment process. Our leaders must not only be 21^st century compliant, they must be voted for and chosen only because they know what to do. If Nigeria had found itself in Britain’s situation, there would have been too much talk about the fact that Britain is in the hands of young people in their 40s, but the focus there today, is not age, but ideas and the workability of ideas. We need to pay attention to this. 

Finally, too many Nigerians have become adherents of “the Japa phenomenon” – the standard euphemism for emigration away from Nigeria in search of greener pastures. The grass they say is greener on the other side, but not always as we can now see. In Britain today, families are worried they won’t be able to pay for gas during winter to heat their homes and keep warm. Many families can no longer afford three square meals. The people are rebelling because they think the government has no clue. Things are so bad that on Sunday, there was power-outage on Elland Road during the match between Arsenal and Leeds. The match had to be delayed for 40 minutes. It could be worse during winter as National Grid and Ofgem have warned. If you want to “Japa” to the UK, you may need to go with your “I-better-pass-my-neighbour generator”. In Paris, France, the people are queuing for fuel, with oil company workers behaving like members of our own NUPENG and PENGASSAN here. So, if you are thinking of relocating to France, it may help to go with your fuel keg and hose. The world has gone mad but leadership still makes the difference. 

Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), on Monday, paid a courtesy visit to Ahmad Gumi, the Islamic cleric.

Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed, his running mate, visited the cleric in his official residence in Kaduna state.

The LP standard bearer announced the meeting on his Twitter handle, sharing photos from the visit.

See photos below:

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Guest: Chijioke Okoli (SAN)

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Date: October 15, 2022

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I was a witness to the menace of flooding, and the consequences, in Nigeria that occurred in 2012, when between the months of July and October that year, 30 out of Nigeria’s 36 states were submerged by flood. By mid-October, 2.1 million persons had been displaced from their homes, over 400 persons died; many homes were destroyed. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) calculated the cost of the losses at about N2.6 trillion, and described the floods as the worst in 40 years. It was not the first time Nigeria would experience floods. After all, before 2012, there had been the famous overflowing of the Ogunpa River in Ibadan, South West of Nigeria, in 1960, 1963, 1978 and notably 1980 - when the Ogunpa Floods left the city of Ibadan completely devastated, and Nigeria with a national disaster. What happened in 2012 was worse than the “Omiyale” phenomenon in Ibadan, as that was known locally.  

The standard narrative about the Ogunpa floods was heavy rainfall and the dumping of waste along the Ogunpa River channels. The 2012 narrative was different. This was not simply about the dumping of refuse or the seasonal flash floods, but a national calamity with additional dimensions. The Federal Government of Nigeria led by President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had to provide a relief fund of N17.6 billion to various states to mitigate the effect. NEMA offered relief support. Camps were set up across the country to accommodate the affected persons and families. State governments liaised with the Federal Government and the Red Cross to help displaced persons. Food was released from the country’s National Strategic Grains Reserve to prevent hunger and famine as the country’s agriculture supply chain had been disrupted. Farms in Nigeria’s food basket states were completely destroyed. The most affected states were Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Benue, Kogi and the low-lying plains of Rivers Niger and Benue and the tributaries of both rivers. 

We visited the camps: 10 years later, the experience remains dark, and haunting- nobody was spared, the old, the young and infants. The worst spectacle of all was the camp set up in Delta state where we saw people on make-shift hospital beds, with the then Governor of the state, Emmanuel Ewetan Uduaghan, vowing that as a Governor, he had a duty to save lives! One of the explanations we were given at the time was that climate change was a problem, release of water from Nigerian dams, and release of water from the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon was also a major cause.  It is astonishing, and a reflection of how we never take anything serious, and how Nigerian leaders do not pay attention to critical matters, that in 2022, we are back to the same situation as we had in 2012. Some commentators have even said that the flooding this year is actually the worst ever.

More than 29 states are reportedly affected, including communities along the banks of Rivers Niger and Benue and the Delta region. In Kogi state, parts of the state capital are submerged. Governor Yahaya Bello visiting the communities has been shown riding a canoe. In Anambra State – West and East and Awka North Local Government Areas - over 600, 000 persons have been displaced. In Jigawa, deaths have been recorded in more than six LGAs. In Nasarawa, a 4, 400 hectares of rice farmland cultivated by Olam Agric Farms, worth about US 20 million dollars has been submerged and laid to waste. After 2012, Olam Farms built 52 kilometres of dykes around its farms. Everything has been wiped away. Olam Agric supplies about 25% of rice in Nigeria. Ade Adefeko, the company’s Vice President, External Relations and Stakeholder Management says the damage is so devastating it could lead to food inflation, and that by December 2022, a 50kg bag of rice, a staple food among Nigerians could cost as much as N100, 000 per bag. In 2014, a bag of rice was less than N20,000. As of September 2022, a bag of rice was N54, 000! Five days ago, in Lagos State, the Commissioner for Environment, Tunji Bello, advised persons living in low-lying parts of the state and neighbouring Ogun State like Ketu, Alapere, Owode Onirin, Kara, Agiliti, Odo Ogun, Agboyi, Isheri, Akute and Warewa, to relocate to upland areas because of the threat of floods.  Concerned citizens have tried to explain why Nigeria now faces such a perennial problem of flooding. 

One reason is that we are in the era of climate change. The global environment has been up-ended by carbon emissions and global warming. The International Panel on Climate Change, a creation of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), advises its 195-member countries about the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, and how the impact can be mitigated. But despite the efforts of the IPCC, and civil society stakeholders like 19-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, and American actor, Leonardo DiCaprio, most leaders of the world pay lip service to climate change and its effects. Meeting the target of 1.5 degrees centigrade threshold or below, as recommended by scientists, and as agreed by world leaders under the Paris Climate Agreement requires concerted action on the parts of governments, financial institutions, corporations, the private sector and others, and it is something that we hear about on a regular basis at Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings on climate change. The effect of climate change is measured in terms of how our world is becoming unrecognizable: sea levels are rising, the arctic is getting warmer, temperatures are rising, rainfall levels have changed, nature is changing and becoming more acidic. When global leaders meet at COPs, they make promises and commitments: the last was in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021, the next one – COP 27 is scheduled for November 6-18 2022, in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. The leaders of the world would make the same promises, but action in terms of follow-up is poor and even worse- climate change as is the case with everything else has become an opportunity for politics and competition. 

Nigeria is not left out. For more than a decade, Nigerian leaders have always included a paragraph or two on climate change in their statements at the United Nations General Assembly. Most recently at the 75^th session of UNGA in New York, President Muhammadu Buhari spoke about the existential threat posed by climate change, Nigeria’s Climate Change Strategy, and climate justice, and the need for financing to mitigate the effects of the climate change. Like his boss, Nigeria’s Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo has also consistently proposed a debt-for-climate-swap deal to achieve an equitable and just energy transition for Nigeria and Africa.  In September 2022, the Nigerian Government inaugurated a National Council on Climate Change in pursuit of the implementation of the Climate Change Act of 2021. But the situation in Nigeria is similar to that of many other countries of the world. What we can hold on to is the reality of the dilemma. This year alone, the evidence of climate change has manifested in the form of floods in Aragua State in North Central Venezuela, in Indonesia, in Trinidad and Tobago, India, Australia, Pakistan and Florida, United States and closer home, in Chad. 

The second reason that has been offered with regard to flooding in Nigeria is to blame the release of water from the Lagdo Dam on the Benue River in Northern Cameroon. Built between 1977 and 1982, the Lagdo dam was meant for irrigation and the supply of electricity. Nigeria and Cameroon have a bilateral agreement over the dam and its management which is principally that Nigeria will construct a similar dam or embankment on its own side. That embankment located in Dasin Village in Adamawa state has been under construction for close to 20 years. Cameroon fulfilled their own part of the bargain. We failed on our part. International purists can argue that Cameroon cannot keep causing us havoc each time water is released from the Lagdo Dam, but we are not even in any position to reciprocate. The bilateral agreement requires Cameroon to inform Nigeria at least a month earlier before it releases water from the Lagdo Dam. Our neighbours have routinely complied in this regard. As recently as September 13, 2022, Nigeria’s Hydrological Services Agency announced that Cameroon was going to release water from Lagdo dam and that many states along the Rivers Niger and Benue basins would be affected. Information was duly provided but we were in a helpless situation because nobody has deemed it necessary to do anything positive to prevent our foreseeable and forewarned agony. Is it possible to enter into new arrangements with Cameroon?  I should think so. 

But who will make the effort when we cannot even manage the dams in Nigeria including the ones developed by domestic River Basin Authorities. Each time, for example, water is released from the Oyan Dam under the Ogun-Osun River Basin Authority, parts of Ogun and Lagos State are submerged. When water is released from the Jebba dam, the whole of that axis from Ilorin to Mokwa is flooded. Before blaming outsiders, we must focus on our own inability as a country to manage the environment or nature. The conflict between man and nature is a major existential challenge and it is indeed at the centre of man’s efforts to assert himself or herself as the most wondrous of all Creations and master of the Cosmos. The trajectory of epistemology has shown man’s limitations and a constant reminder that he is indeed, only a part of the Universe and not its master, but in other parts of the world, man’s perpetual search for meaning and dominance is the historification of the world. Here in Africa, and many underdeveloped parts, we do not try enough. We blame God for everything. We resign to fate.  

Every year, government agencies tell us that there will be bad weather, heavy rainfall, and floods, but nobody does anything. The rainy season comes, floods everywhere, people die and we just move on. In Jos, Plateau State at certain moments of the year, the weather could be so cold as if it is winter, but the people never prepare. Nigerian newspapers used to report deaths in Plateau State during the rainy season, just because some of the people will refuse to wear warm clothing! The other year, when there was heavy rainfall in Lagos, people were swimming and hunting for fish on the streets of Victoria Island. Many were more excited about catching fish than the fact that the Atlantic had overflown its banks, and the whole of Lagos Island could be submerged. We treat everything as a joke around here including the lives of citizens. There are cities around the world that are below the sea level – Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Singapore, Santo Domingo… They are better managed. When floods occur here, what you are likely to hear is that it is time to propitiate the river goddess. Other countries are talking about artificial intelligence, efficient robots and cutting-edge technology, we are still at the level of spirits and goddesses.  This primitivity and superstition is the biggest challenge we face. It is in fact worse than climate change.     

The third point to be made is that our major problem in Nigeria is negligence. We don’t care enough about the environment. We believe the best way to live is to beat, game and cheat the system, and ignore all possible rules for harmonious living. We thrive in the midst of chaos. We revel in disaster. This is why regulations don’t work here. Part of our environmental problem is that we build on drainage channels. We dump refuse indiscriminately. We threaten nature with our actions and choices. Government officials collect bribe and look the other way. Basic rules that work elsewhere about building plans and management of the environment do not work here. When nature fights back, we blame everything on witchcraft. The floods before now and this time are a reflection of the way we are. 

But should government continue this way or look the other way, and allow the people to suffer and die? No. It is particularly disturbing that official responses have been cavalier. In Anambra and Kogi states, we have seen the state Governors – Soludo and Bello identifying with the people. Most of the other state Governors can’t be bothered. In one state, a Governor and his Deputy who could not be found as floods ravaged communities in the state were booed this week when they tried to attend a festival, behaving as if nothing happened. I am referring to Mohammed Abubakar Badaru of Jigawa State and his Deputy, Umar Namadi. Other state Governors in affected states are too busy with pre-2023 political rallies to even talk about the floods. They obviously consider their political ambitions more important than the people’s agony. This is strange. Political leaders must learn to show empathy. They must demonstrate that the people matter. 

The starting point is to provide support for all the farmers who have lost their farmlands and crops, and the families and communities that have also lost so much, as was done in 2012. Where it is possible to provide grants, this must be done. Counselling too. And why are the emergency management agencies at both the Federal and State levels so silent?  To stave off the looming effect of food inflation, the Federal Government should release grains from the National Strategic Grains Reserves in the existing 33 silos, even if the entire reserve is at the depleted level of about 60,000 metric tonnes due to COVID-19 interventions and mismanagement. Above all, we have to engage the Cameroonians in terms of temporary measures that can be agreed upon on the Lagdo dam issue. At home, we need to revive the River Basin Authorities, and address whatever problems they now pose, contrary to their original design.