Almost everyone thinks they know what is wrong with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his government, except Tinubu himself. And to show that it’s not just bellyaching, there are plenty of examples to beat the president over the head.

Headline inflation has risen from 22.2 percent in April 2023 to 33.7 one year after – and is still growing – while attempts by the government to tame it have been largely ineffective. Food inflation has nearly doubled. The naira has been devalued by almost 70 percent in one year, and poverty levels, even among the once-comfortable urban population, have risen dramatically. Hardship has never been starker.

But that’s not all. Where Tinubu promised leaner government parastatals, they have increased. The talk about cutting the cost of governance is being crushed under the wheels of longer executive convoys and a parliament out of touch.

Events around the continent, especially in West Africa, where Nigeria is supposed to be a powerhouse, offer little comfort. On Tinubu’s watch, and some might even add, because of his mishandling, three countries – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso – have pulled out of ECOWAS and formed a band of rebellious Sahelian states.

And on the continental stage, Nigeria has dropped from Africa’s largest economy to number four, a blow that a country with an oversized ego can still not reconcile with.

Crucify him

If one called for nails to crucify Tinubu, volunteers would supply more than enough to cover every inch of his body, with bags of it to spare. You will be reminded that this was self-inflicted misery when he removed the petrol subsidy on day one and attempted to merge the exchange rate without a clear plan.

That’s just as well. I can’t wrap my head around some of the events that happened in the last year. And I can’t remember how often I have asked if this is the same Tinubu I’ve known since 1998. Well, it’s the same Tinubu, more or less. It’s the same Tinubu, seasoned and buffeted almost equally from age and circumstance in a country that has also changed by far greater measure in the last nearly three decades!

Tinubu asked for the job, so there can’t be excuses for why the country is in such misery. It’s, however, fair to say, almost at the risk of attack, that those who judge Tinubu harshly underestimate the determined, active efforts of interest groups – both from within and outside his government – to ensure that he fails, despite his best efforts.

The heart of the matter

His government’s two most consequential decisions – announcing the removal of petrol subsidy and attempting to create a more transparent exchange rate system – touched a raw nerve. The biggest beneficiaries, primarily wealthy, powerful and deadly people across the country, but particularly in the North, are determined to fight his government to a standstill.

The pattern of last week’s #EndBadGovernance protests showed where poverty was starkest. But it also showed the locus of misdirected anger and resistance to change. The anger was against Tinubu’s policies.

But much more than that, it implicated sections of the Northern elite who have, over the years, underdeveloped and impoverished the region, primarily by playing the ethnic and religious card and refusing to be held to account. This same elite was on a roll last week, issuing Russian flags to protesters and pontificating how Tinubu had lost his way.

North’s misery

Things didn’t become suddenly hard for the North under Tinubu. As Kingsley Moghalu said four years ago, when Nigeria displaced India as the world’s poverty capital under the government of President Muhammadu Buhari, the North, regrettably, also became the poverty capital of the poverty capital, with the incidence of poverty up to 80 percent in the North-west.

Decades of the elite prioritising politics and a sense of entitlement over production and accountability have radicalised millions of young people without hope or a future. Their anger should have been directed at the elite responsible for the mess.

Unfortunately, the same elite stoked the discontent, capitalised on it and managed to frame it as evidence of Tinubu’s unfitness for office. And people who used soldiers to crush swathes of the civil population when they were in power are now teaching us lessons on civil management of public protests. The truth is more nuanced. 

The handling of the protests in several states was incompetent, disgraceful and indefensible. Nothing justifies using live rounds against primarily unarmed people expressing their right to dissent. It’s a disgrace that live rounds were used to disperse mostly unarmed crowds, as a result of which about 13 people were killed.

However, the suggestions that people with a sinister agenda sponsored the violence in several Northern states to destabilise Tinubu’s government and divert attention from their complicity in our current mess should not be dismissed out of hand.

Elite wars

It only takes a cursory look at the sections of the elite worst hit by the removal of the subsidy and the attempts to streamline the forex market chaos to understand why they won’t give up without a dirty fight, whatever the cost. Those who think it’s in their power to determine who rules and how long took advantage of the protests to fire warning shots about what they’re determined to do, if not sooner, then by the next election.

Kenya, the UK, and, later, Bangladesh have been touted as models for managing dissent and examples of what may happen if a government fails to listen to the people. While economic hardship is the common thread, those who cite these examples in Nigeria ignore the sinister role of interest groups that fear a prolonged loss of political power.

Insects within

Yet, suggesting that outsiders caused all of Tinubu’s woes would be foolish. Amid the chaos of last week, there were members of his cabinet who were more than delighted that the pressure might finally compel the president to review his government’s “tight-fistedness”. Under Buhari, the Ministry of Finance released quarterly capital votes to ministries and government departments, and they didn’t have to account for it.

Under Tinubu, however, the Ministry of Finance tightly controls releases. Payments are only made after projects have been verified and certificates of completion issued. It’s not the kind of thing people who are used to easy money would be happy about. Beneficiaries of the previous order will resist this change or stand idly by when the government is under attack.

What team?

The part of the whole business that I find troubling is the quality of Tinubu’s cabinet and inner circle. If it was a joke to please certain interest groups when he came to power last year, it has become an embarrassment. He has paid them what he owes, with interest.

With a few exceptions, his team is neither valuable for the country nor serviceable for a president in an emergency. Where did he find these people? And how long will he keep them as passengers on a train to nowhere, putting at risk his reputation as an excellent talent hunter?

I guess that the #EndBadGovernance protest will not be the last. One can only hope that lessons have been learnt and concrete steps will be taken to implement them for the benefit of citizens. That would be the biggest test of his presidency.

Ishiekwene, Editor-In-Chief of LEADERSHIP, is the author of the new book Writing for Media and Monetising It.

For some inexplicable reason, people like to send me ‘accusatory’ messages about journalists and journalism. Even for things that I know nothing about. It is almost as if they feel I should be held accountable for the entire Nigerian media space. Three days to the commencement of the nationwide ‘End Bad Governance’ protests, I received one such message from a highly respected person in the North who is very political despite not being involved in partisan politics. I just scrolled through without bothering to respond. But following how the protests eventually panned out in a number of northern cities, I had to go back to the message because I remembered a certain word, ‘zanga zanga’—the meaning of which I didn’t even know until the protests started. 

Here was his message: “I don’t know where things stand now regarding the level of mobilisation for this zangazanga. The media have not been providing us with real and periodic assessment of the levels of mobilisation. Nor have they provided us with an analysis of which demographics are for it, and which are against it. As well as to why each demographic holds that view. And they (the media) have not provided us with the foreign dimension to all of this, if any. Some government officials, and pro-government commentators, have alleged foreign involvement. Niger Republic has openly been making inciting remarks, even wishing for a regime change. So, I think the media, generally, have not provided an assessment of the buildup, as it were, to the 1st August commencement of the zangazanga, as proposed. But maybe I just didn’t notice it.”

The Nigeria-Niger border is 1,608 kilometres long and traverses seven states: Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe, Katsina and Borno. Since local social media influencers are being contracted to spread pro-Russia propaganda in Africa, I will not be surprised if they also have their foot soldiers in Nigeria. “I manage the cyberwar, the media war… and (the late Wagner leader, Yevgeny) Prigozhin conducts military activities,” Luc Michel, who heads the Russian propaganda machine told the BBC two years ago. “I think that Russia must replace the French in all of Africa.” Nigeria, of course, is not a former French colony but we are too close to one for comfort.

On Tuesday, Governor Uba Sani of Kaduna alluded to that while lamenting the level of carnage in his state. “When you see, particularly children within the ages of nine, 10 and 14 now raising the flag of another country, you will agree with me that it’s well designed, sponsored by some elements who are calling for anarchy in their own country,” Sani said. “They took advantage by using the psychology of those children, knowing fully that here in Northern Nigeria, our people are close to our neighbouring countries, such as Niger Republic, making them to believe that what happened in Niger Republic can happen in Nigeria; what happened in Burkina Faso can happen in Nigeria and what happened in Mali can happen in Nigeria.”

In my column last week, I identified six categories to which Nigerians belong regarding the protests. In one of those groups are street urchins, the opportunistic criminals who wait in the hope of a confusion that would allow them to loot and maim. We saw them on full display in Kano, Kaduna and other cities across the country. Of course, I also mentioned those currently in power, especially in Abuja (and beneficiaries) who view the idea of a protest of any kind as ‘treasonable’. Yet, whatever may be our misgivings about street protests or reckless calls for a military coup, a system where public officials feel they should not be held accountable by citizens cannot for long endure. That is what we just witnessed in Bangladesh.

I am delighted that the protests have ended. I also believe the security agencies should fish out all the people involved in violence and looting. Since most of these criminal activities were filmed, perpetrators should not be difficult to fish out. If there are politicians behind the call for military takeover of government, they also should be made to answer for that. But the government must not misread public mood. There is real hunger in Nigeria. And there is also anger about misgovernance. 

Today, many people are saying the same about the government Tinubu heads, and it is difficult to fault them. At a time when most Nigerians cannot afford decent meals and millions go to bed on empty stomachs, it rankles that public officials continue to expend scarce resources to service ostentatious lifestyles. Buying expensive vehicles for lawmakers, and a yacht for the president while most governors live like emperors is part of the reason for the anger on the streets. Therefore, to the chief lawbreakers who taunt the people with their irresponsible ‘eating’ habits, I leave them with a story from the master of the craft, the late Professor Chinua Achebe. In a 1989 interview, which has since been published into a book, Achebe told a story which he would, by his own admission, use “again and again because I think it is a marvellous little story.” I have also recounted Achebe’s narration of it before on this page because it addresses leaders at all levels of society who conspire to hold down the people simply to preserve their own personal privilege. 

I consider it most fitting for a season such as this in Nigeria. And here goes Achebe: “The snake was riding his horse, coiled up in his saddle. That’s the way the snake rode his horse. And he came down the road and met the toad walking by the roadside. And the toad said to him, ‘Excuse me, Sir, but that’s not how to ride a horse.’ And the snake said, ‘No? Can you show me then?’ And the toad said, ‘Yes, if you would step down, Sir.’ So, the snake came down. The toad jumped into the saddle and sat bolt upright and galloped most elegantly up and down the road. When he came back, he said, ‘That’s how to ride a horse.’ And the snake said, ‘Excellent. Very good. Thank you. Come down, if you don’t mind.’ So, the toad came down, and the snake went up and coiled himself in the saddle as he was used to doing and then said to the toad, ‘It is very good to know, but it is even better to have. What good does excellent horsemanship do to a man without a horse?’ And with that he rode away…”

Achebe provided perspective to the story: “The snake in this story is an aristocrat, and the toad a commoner. The statement, even the rebuke, which the snake issues is, in fact, saying: ‘Keep where you belong. You see, people like me are entitled to horses, and we don’t have to know how to ride. There’s no point in being an expert. That’s not going to help you.’ If you think deeply about this story, it’s a two-edged sword. To put this other edge to it, which is not noticed at first… this other side is that the snake is incompetent, the snake is complacent, the snake is even unattractive. It’s all there in the story, and the time will come in this political system when all this will be questioned. Why is it that a snake is entitled to a horse? Why is it that the man who knows how to ride does not have a horse to ride? This questioning will come in a revolutionary time, and when it comes you don’t need another story. It is the same story that will stand ready to be used; and this to me is the excellence of the griot in creating laughter and hiding what you might call the glint of steel. In the voluminous folds of this laughter, you can catch the hint of a concealed weapon which will be used when the time comes…”

As we have seen from the experiences of other countries, real revolutions don’t come with timetables. They are most often spontaneous and sometimes ignited by seemingly innocuous occurrences. Given the ethno-religious divisions within our society, the prospect of such an upheaval should frighten us. That is why those who are “eating” today should not mock the millions of Nigerians who are going to bed hungry.

Beyond Covid-19 Pandemic Tales

When the Covid-19 pandemic broke early in 2020, the attention of the world was on Africa. Given the state of healthcare delivery on the continent, there were fears we would be falling in the streets and dying. In Nigeria, the apprehension was palpable. But, as it so happens whenever we manage to put the right people in the right places, the Nigeria Disease Control (NCDC) collaborated with other critical stakeholders to manage the health crisis in a manner that even developed countries could not. Part of that story is contained in ‘An Imperfect Storm: A pandemic and the coming of age of a Nigerian institution’, jointly written by the former NCDC Director General, Dr Chikwe Ihekweazu and his wife, Vivianne.

Having had the privilege of reading the book that is being publicly presented today in Abuja, I must commend Chikwe who is lucky to be married to a wife who also operates within the health sector as Managing Director of Nigeria Health Watch, a not-for-profit health communication and advocacy group. As the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Director General, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala wrote in her blurb, the book is more than a memoir of a public servant, it is a “fascinating journey through facets” that include the love story of the Ihekweazus and the early life of Chikwe who was born in Hamburg to a German mother and a Nigerian father.

Indeed, the World Health Organisation (WHO) Director General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus could not have been more apt when he described Chikwe’s narrative as “a true testament to collaborative efforts, leadership and the unwavering spirit that influenced an entire nation facing a global crisis.” Former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, ANAP Foundation Chairman, Mr Atedo Peterside and my aburo, Dr Ike Anya also provide insights about the book. In his foreword, a former Director General of the African Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr John Nkengasong, said the book “sheds light on the intricate decisions, the weight of leaderships, and the importance of investing in public health infrastructure—offering invaluable insights and lessons for navigating crises in any corner of the world.”

I wholeheartedly concur as I commend Chikwe and Vivianne Ihekweazu for writing the book that provides insights into a never-to-be-forgotten period in the history of humanity.

2024 Teens Conference

The online registration portal for the 2024 edition of the teens career conference of the Redeemed Christian Church of God, The Everlasting Arms Parish (TEAP) will be closed by this weekend. Scheduled for next week Saturday, 17th August with the theme, ‘The Power of Music’, it will be streamed live. The main speaker this year is the former Cross River State Governor, Mr Donald Duke. He will be joined by Mr Darey Art Alade, Mrs Bukola Bekes and teen saxophonist, Damilola Adepegba. As in previous editions, it is going to be a day of fun, music, networking and impactful sessions. While attendance is completely free of charge (including food and drinks), intending participants must register online by visiting www.rccgteapteens.ng. But only a few slots remain.  

In the late 1960s when the vicious war between India and Pakistan ended, India faced a severe drought. A grave food crisis became its lot. The country depended on international philanthropy to feed its citizens. An exasperated Indira Gandhi who was then the prime minister vowed that never again would India rely on international charity for the survival of hundreds of millions of its citizens. The country embarked on various aggressive agricultural programmes and projects. India has since become a food superpower. It produces more rice than any other nation, and most Basmati Rice, popular in Nigeria because of the popular belief that it is for diabetic patients, is from India. India's 1.4 billion people are today respected across the globe. 

The major driver of the EndBadGovernance protests that started on August 1 was the widespread hunger in the land arising principally from the petrol subsidy removal and the full flotation of the local currency by the President Bola Tinubu administration no sooner than it came into being in May 2023. Public officials at different government tiers should look at our recent history and learn from the example of Willie Obiano, Anambra State governor for eight years till 2023 regarding how to provide food to the people within a short period. Obiano made Anambra synonymous with agriculture, a remarkable achievement for a state long associated with trade, commerce, manufacturing, and education but never agriculture.

Obiano focused on rice for two reasons: it is now Nigeria’s staple and it can be harvested within three months of planting. Anambra was producing a mere 80,000 metric tonnes of rice per annum by 2015 when Obiano assumed office, but by the time he departed in 2022, the state was producing 420,00 metric tonnes. The rice production was well branded and marketed so effectively that some millers in Kogi and Benue states began to brand their rice Anambra Rice to be able to sell it fast.

Most Nigerians still do not know that the Lake Rice brand consumed in Lagos State is milled in Anambra State. It is produced in Kebbi State but Kebbi cannot mill it, so it is processed in Anambra State by a company known as Stines Rice Mills in Amichi, Nnewi South Local Government Area. On October 2, 2019, when the Coscharis Rice Mill at Igbariam in Anambra East LGA was commissioned by the then Central Bank governor, Godwin Emefiele whose bank helped finance the facility, the Kebbi State governor, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu who is now the Minister of Economic Planning, was there. He was there to negotiate with the Coscharis Rice Mill promoter, Cosmas Maduka, how the new firm could help process Kebbi rice. Kebbi is Nigeria’s greatest rice producer.

Obiano, a former bank executive director, approached rice production with the mindset of a business leader. Akinwunmi Adesina, the African Development Bank (AfDB) president, advised the Nigerian government when he was the Minister of Agriculture under President Goodluck Jonathan, to see agriculture as a business rather than as charity or social service performed by uneducated and old people. With the right incentives provided, Obiano was able to get hardnosed entrepreneurs like Maduka to invest heavily in agriculture.  Before building the Coscharis Rice Mill, Maduka had invested massively in rice production in Anaku, the headquarters of Ayamelum LGA, where he acquired a large swath of land. He found the rice production business so profitable that when the terrible flood of 2019 wiped out his production for the year, he started dry season rice farming and built a big dam to make it work effectively. He hired several Indian expatriates.

There were other big rice investors like JOSSAN operating in Orumba North LGA and Ayamelu LGA whom Obiano brought to the state. The rice revolution saw the emergence of both medium and small rice producers and millers as well as marketers in places like Ogbaru, Awka North, Orumba South and Ihiala. A 20 kilogramme of rice sold for as little as N3,000 while a 50 kg of Anambra Rice went for N6,500. It was easy for individuals and associations to purchase rice in large quantities to give out freely during Christmas and other festivities. The state government and its ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) were also giving out rice to their staff, partners, and friends. How many states can afford to do so today as a 50kg bag of rice sellls for N80,000?

 Anambra State participated actively in the CBN’s loans for agricultural development programmes, and made creative use of the resources made available. Not only was it the first state government to repay the loans it took, it also provides funds to little-known farmers like Prince Ugochkwu Okparaeke from Umuchu in Aguata LGA who owns Eagle Farms in Umuchu as well as in Umunze, Orumba South LGA. Okparaeke was so imaginative that he developed a hybrid of the traditional Igbo cow that is short but fleshy and the stock from Northern Nigeria that is big but less fleshy proportionate to their sizes. The hybrid is, therefore, big and with plenty of flesh like the breeds in Europe and South America. Small fish farmers also benefitted from the CBN credit, and would proudly display their big catches during the annual Anambra State Agricultural Exhibition at the Alex Ekwueme Square in Awka.

Nigeria is facing an acute food crisis. Rather than just give out 50kg bags of rice at half the price and provide 10kg bags of rice free of charge to hungry and malnourised people in the name of offering them palliatives and removing the import duties on foodstuffs for six months, Nigerian government officials at the federal and state levels should be more imaginative because none of these measures can take the place of rigorous thinking and sound public policy. Let Tinubu study the Indian model initiated by Mrs Ghandi and let state governors learn from the ex-Governor Obiano example. Each state should be able to identify its staple foods and produce them in less than one year. There are agricultural research institutes throughout Nigeria, and they have developed high-yielding plants and seeds and are resistant to common diseases. The Federal Government needs to introduce a visionary agricultural policy, get the states and local governments for their buy-in, and coordinate the measures to get the country going in the right direction. We must avoid situations like the one in France and the Sudan which saw the people revolt historically against their rulers, chasing them away from power. 

As Willie Obiano turns 69 years old today (Thursday, August 8, 2024), the best tribute we can pay to the man under whose leadership Anambra State habitually took the first position in various key national and international competitions is to start to feed the 210 million Nigerian citizens with our own produce.

Obiakor, a retired deputy director in the public service, lives in Onitsha, Anambra State.

When the Dangote refinery controversy blew up, naturally as someone wired to support anyone l perceive to be oppressed, this time, Dangote, l lined up in support of the richest man in Africa.
I perceived he was being unduly treated by the Downstream and Midstream regulators, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). For days, l had heated arguments with people with opposing views on this matter. However, Ademola Adigun, one person l respect on this app, cautioned that people should not be too emotive on this matter but seek knowledge. I took that as a challenge.

Subsequently, in an attempt not to look foolish out of emotive consideration, l opened my mind to critically study the issues involved and even the nitty gritty technical details of the oil and gas system. And because l owe an obligation to educate people, l had to open up myself to information, researching on this issue and the petroleum sector, devoid of emotion.

While several groups of people, including one of my constituencies -the Civil society, have made pilgrimages to the humongous site of the Dangote refinery, unarguably, the largest private refinery in World, l decided, what in my opinion, was sifting facts from emotion. The issue has even reverberated in the hallowed Chambers of the House of Representatives, where the adhoc committee set up to investigate the issue, among other issues in the upstream and midstream petroleum section, was dissolved yesterday.
In a report today by Daily Nigeria, the Speaker, Abbas Tajuddeen, dissolved the committee over alleged compromise by some members of the committee who had exculpated the richest man in Africa, even before the assignment kicked off.

From my findings, there are three major critical issues that are affecting the operations of Dangote Refinery

1) CRUDE SUPPLY-FEEDSTOCK

It does appear that when Dangote was building the refinery, there were no proper arrangements on ground on how he will get feedstock for the refinery. His refinery is the largest single train refinery in the world.
Nobody builds and opens a refinery of this magnitude without refinery agreement to get feed stock. Dangote didn't have a feedstock agreement for his refinery.

I have read where some people claimed that he has an agreement with NNPC Ltd but that arrangements was not a feed stock agreement. What happened with the NNPC arrangement was that during the project building phase, Dangote Refinery project got stuck and NNPC Ltd got the approval of the President to take equity.
Subsequently, the NNPC got a loan and paid $1bn as part of the 20 per cent equity while the rest was to be paid in crude supply.

The lack of feedstock was part of Dangote's problem and he is now sourcing feedstock when the refinery is powered. So far, NNPC Ltd has given him 39 cargoes.

2) CRUDE OIL PRICES
Dangote's claim that IOCs are selling crude oil to him at $6 per barrel above international price doesn’t seem to be true. What l discovered is that Crude oil has different grades. What he got from the US is WTI and the price is not the same as others.
Another key issue under pricing is that the margin of sale of crude oil is different because it is an international business. There is what is called market margin and it is usually from $1.5 to up to $20 per barrel.

There are several crude grades and Dangote Refinery uses different grades of crude to blend. So, when Dangote said he is importing from the United States, it is because he needs it as part of the grades to be used to blend in his refinery to produce petroleum products. His refinery needs several percentage of Bonny light, WTI and others to be able to blend very well. But he is using the fact that he imports from US to give the impression that he is importing from US and other countries, when in actual fact, is that he is sourcing different crude grades to blend.

Another critical point of under pricing is that the marketers buy this crude grades and add their own margin which ranges from $1.5 to $20 but the Nigerian government is giving it to Dangote at a margin of $0.5 per barrel which to me seems to me to be a good deal for him.

One other contentious issue is that Dangote is also persuading the regulator, to persuade the International Oil Companies to give him crude but the IOCs cannot do that because they have Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with the Nigerian government. Through the PSC, the IOCs produce, give Nigeria government its share and take the share of their crude and sell to marketers. Dangote didn't enter any agreement with the IOCs to give him feedstock. What people must also know is that these IOCs borrow money from banks, invest in equipments, drill the oil fields, give government its share and take theirs, sell, recover their costs and make further investments.
Also, Dangote wants to use the local refinery obligation to obfuscate issues but this is not working for him because the local refinery obligation, according to the PIA, is based on a willing buyer and willing seller arrangement. This means the product must be available, and the parties must agree on the price in line with Section 109 of the PIA, which deals with the National Crude Oil Requirement of Refineries. The section states that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission shall base the allocation of the domestic crude oil supply obligation applicable to the respective lessees on the National Crude Oil Demand requirement supply curve, which is the supply curve of crude oil or condensate that can be supplied on a voluntary basis at the prevailing international market price.

3) DOWNSTREAM
On the controversial issue of licensing of Dangote Refinery, while it has the license to build the plant, the refinery does not have license that covers other parts of its operations.
For monopoly, Dangote is asking the regulator to direct all oil marketers to get petroleum products from his refinery. But the question to ask is: Can Dangote guarantee Nigeria three billion liters of petroleum products per day in strategic national reserves for 32 days and not sell it? As a business entity, for Dangote to keep these products in strategic national reserves without selling them will lead to huge losses for him.
For the regulator to give Dangote that monopoly that he asking means that the business of other oil marketers would be killed and this is against the policy of deregulation because marketers should be allowed to import so there can be healthy competition.

Another critical point to note is that Dangote Refinery operates in a free trade zone and he will be exempted from paying tax to government. This is a loss of revenue to the government. The petroluem products from the refinery would be sold in foreign currency instead of naira to Nigerians as oil marketers who want to buy from there will fill form M (Importers form) in the bank.

Another contentious issue is the sulphur content in the petroluem products. It was reported in the media that the NMDPRA has minimum of 11 staff members in Dangote Refinery and all other local Refineries. The test of the petroluen products from the refinery are done daily and sent to the regulator. This means the regulator knows what they are saying when they stated that the product is inferior.

One worrisome aspect of the whole arrangement is that Dangote will need a minimum of $1.8bn working capital to operate the refinery and no bank would be willing to give it to him because he appears to be at a financial tight corner.
This was further confirmed with yesterday’s International Fitch ratings which downgraded the Dangote industries Limited, reflecting the precarious liquidity position of the business conglomerate.
The report stated inter alia that the group’s liquidity position, “followed lower than expected disposal proceeds, operational and financial underperformance compared to our prior expectations, also affected by local currency devaluation, and lack of contracted backup funding to repay its significant debt facilities maturing on 31 August 2024….We view the lack of DIL’s audited accounts for 2023 as a corporate governance issue. The RWN reflects uncertainty related to the group’s ability to refinance maturing debt.

“Lack of tangible steps to refinance or repay the maturing debt would lead to further downgrade while we do not expect a positive rating action until the company’s liquidity position improves substantially.”

I love Dangote and his can-do spirit, the reason l initially was emotive when this controversy broke when l felt he was being unduly treated but my study of the whole scenario has changed my perspective. I want him to succeed but he too has to do the needful. The monopolistic mindset which he carried from his cement business cannot work in the deregulated petroleum sector. More importantly, he needs a pragmatic approach to solve his liquidity challenges in this petroleum sector, which, with the benefit of hindsight, he underestimated, based on the seeming hand-in-gloves relationship he had with the previous leadership of the CBN, where it appeared he had “easy” access to funds.

Soji Adekunmbi, an Abuja based public policy analyst, in an article in The Cable, proffered solutions to Dangote to enable him navigate the humongous financial quagmire he seems to have found himself, when he posited:
“A few options are available to Dangote but the most viable of them is that he should consider divesting some of his shares in the refinery. It may seem a difficult option but it is the best for him given the circumstances.

There are business entities who took a similar path when confronted with some of the challenges seemingly facing Dangote. In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi government sold Aramco, the national oil company to the public when it faced difficulties.

Even Microsoft founder, Bill Gates sold off a majority of his stake in the company retaining a mere five percent interest in the business. Gates took that route after facing anti-trade court cases following Microsoft’s monopolistic nature, which had caused the collapse of several IT companies.

Dangote should do the needful by selling shares to Nigerians as it is obvious given the intricate nature of business in the oil and gas sector particularly the huge capital outlay required to keep a business going, he cannot pull it off alone.” Richard Akinnola

In the ever-evolving landscape of Nigerian politics, language plays a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Recently, a phrase has gained prominence: “Let’s dialogue.” On the surface, it seems innocuous as it is in grammatical context a call for peaceful resolution, but beneath lies a deeper implication.

Against the foregoing grammatical backdrop, it will not be a misnomer to explore how this seemingly conciliatory phrase is similar to another ominous message: “You can go to court.”

Without a doubt, Nigerian elections are often marred by violence, rigging, and manipulation. The winner takes all, leaving the defeated with limited options. When politicians utter the phrase “Let’s dialogue,” another phrase that readily comes to mind is, “Seek redress in court.” Unfortunately, it is a veiled threat, a way of dismissing opponents while maintaining a veneer of civility.

Against the backdrop of the foregoing view, it is germane to opine that language matters, particularly when it conveys ominous message. Thus, when leaders choose their words, they wield immense influence. At this juncture, it is expedient to explain that “Let’s dialogue” may sound like an invitation to peaceful resolution, but it carries the weight of legal battles, bureaucratic hurdles, and delays. It is a strategic move, and a way to avoid direct confrontation while pushing opponents into the judicial arena.

In fact, the implications of this linguistic maneuver are significant. By framing court action as a form of dialogue, politicians subtly shift the narrative. They imply that legal battles are just another avenue for communication, akin to a negotiation table. But in reality, going to court is a complex, time-consuming process, one that often favors those with resources and connections.

Leadership demands transparency and accountability. When politicians use euphemisms like “Let’s dialogue,” they undermine these principles. Citizens deserve straightforward communication, not coded messages that obscure the true intent. Responsible leaders prioritize the welfare of their constituents over their own interests, choosing clarity over obfuscation.

As Nigerians engage in political discourse, it is expedient we remain vigilant, and the fact cannot be denied that behind seemingly harmless phrases lie deeper meanings. When we hear “Let’s dialogue,” from political leaders, let us recognize it for what it is, a synonym for “You can go to court.”

However, despite the linguistic jigsaw that Nigerians are often confronted with, the fact that our democracy thrives when citizens demand transparency, hold leaders accountable, and refuse to be misled by linguistic gymnastics cannot be denied. Therefore, it is expedient we collectively ensure that our dialogue remains genuine, our courts accessible, and our democracy resilient.

Thus, it is not surprising that the Lagos Planning Committee of the #EndBadGovernance protests has rejected President Bola Tinubu’s nationwide broadcast, through which he called for dialogue, describing it as “insensitive” and “arrogant.”

The committee, which met on Sunday, August 4, 2024, to discuss developments and the way forward, condemned the President’s failure to address the demands of the protesters, and also rejected the President’s call to suspend the demonstrations for dialogue, demanding instead that he acknowledges their demands and show commitment to true dialogue by establishing an inclusive public engagement protocol.

At this juncture, it is germane to opine that the protesters’ refusal to dialogue cannot be easily faulted as evidences of their knockback unarguably finds expression in the quote attributed to George Orwell, which says, "In our time, political speech and writing are largely the defense of the indefensible... Thus, political language has to consist largely of euphemism, question-begging, and sheer cloudy vagueness... Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable."

Given the foregoing untoward development, it is expedient to urge our political leaders to bridge the trust gap between them and the citizens as doing so is crucial for a healthy democracy and effective governance. Therefore, it is incumbent on them to consider some key points that cut across exhibition of transparency and accountability, fulfilling promises as well as demonstration of responsive governance.

In fact, Nigerian politicians must prioritize transparency in their actions and decisions. This is as citizens deserve to know how public funds are allocated and spent. And this can be done by our political leaders through regular audits, open budget processes, and accessible financial reports. When the foregoing steps are consistently taken from one political dispensation to another, they would definitely build trust.

Thus, to earn the trust of the people, politicians must eschew empty promises during election campaigns as they erode trust. Rather, they should focus on realistic goals and deliver on their commitments, even as they make efforts to prioritize policies that directly impact citizens' lives, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

In a similar vein, politicians should actively engage with their constituents through regular town hall meetings, feedback channels, and consultations as they can bridge trust gap. At such meetings, issues affecting citizens should promptly and transparently be addressed.

Also, political leaders should put in more efforts toward involving citizens in policy formulation by consulting with civil society organizations, community leaders, and grassroots movements, and not only that, they should always ensure that decisions reflect the diverse needs of the population.

Again, politicians should always have it at the back of their minds that trust is earned through consistent actions, not just words. Nigerian politicians must prioritize the welfare of their constituents and work towards a more accountable, responsive, and trustworthy government. So, by doing this, the gap between leaders and the people would be bridged, and whenever they tell the people, “Let’s dialogue” their call would be heeded to with alacrity.

I woke up this morning with a heavy heart. Nigeria is on my mind. The country has become very poor in recent years. total FX proceeds from crude oil exports expected in 2025 is just about $22 billion. Dangote Group expects to earn $30 billion the same year. can you imagine? A country of over 200 million people depending on $22 billion? We are indeed a very poor country. But why?

Because politics has become the most lucrative business in the country. the only thing young people pursue is political appointments; not business opportunities as was the case in the after the civil war and all through the 1980s and 1990s.

Since 1999, our government has abandoned promotion of non-export drive. The emphasis is now on sharing political patronage foodstuffs. How can the federal government of Nigeria be focused on importing rice and sharing it to the states? What happened to previous initiatives on food self-sufficiency?

In the 1980s, Association of Nigerian Exporters (ANE) was a proud group of non-oil exporters of all sort of non-oil goods. In those days, commercial banks had Export Desks to fund export businesses. There were incentives for those who repatriated their export proceeds. Agencies like Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) were up and doing in encouraging exports of non-oil goods. The IBB regime set up Raw Materials Research Council to develop local raw material as substitutes to the imported ones.

Why did we abandon all those efforts?

The Buhari administration made commendable efforts in driving domestic production of rice and other grains. It recorded some successes, I must say. Today, those initiatives have been abandoned and we are back to the era of full-scale rice importation. Why?

The drastic reduction in domestic food production largely due to insecurity is the main reason for the hardship and hunger in the land. Yet, there is no authentic program from the government to fix this problem. I saw in the news the other that some Black farmers in the US were given $2 billion by the Biden administration because they could not access bank loans. Serious nations take farming seriously. Every nation subsidizes agriculture very seriously because food security has become a national security issue. But here, we have scrubbed the Anchor Borrowers Program which used to be a funding program to support farming. What have we replaced the ABP with?

Meantime, the most important news from the State House these days is the release of list of political appointments! The Nigerian government celebrates political appointments with the same gusto with which other nations celebrate scientific breakthroughs. Mind you, I have nothing against political appointments and political appointees, but any nation whose politics is more lucrative than entrepreneurship is doomed!

I just wanted to unburden my mind. I will speak more on this in due course. Thank you.

....... Demands the immediate release of Micheal Lenin and others Protest Leaders currently being detained by Security agents 

......Frowns at the use of Thugs to Attack Protesters in Lagos and Abuja 

.......Decries the Use of Curfews by State Governors to frustrate Citizens' Nationwide Protests 

The United Action Front of Civil Society again, wishes to observe that reports from our Protests field Monitors in Abuja, Lagos and other Cities of Nigeria from our monitors have it that both security agents and politically sponsored thugs have consistently disrupted and dispersed lawful assembly of peaceful protesters at the Moshood Abiola Stadium, the venue designated by the court for the anti Hunger protesters for no reason at all, inspite of insisting earlier that the Abuja protests must be confined to Moshood Abiola Stadium. This use of unwarranted force on civil protesters is high handed and oppressive to law abiding citizens.

Reports also have it that some leaders of the Protests in Abuja, who include Mr Micheal Lenin, among others are still being detained and tortured by the Security agents, who abducted them and at their residences in the dead of the night following their open criticism of President Bola Tinubu's Address to the Nation. For us, it's quite sad that Nigeria is beginning to operate a Police State under a democratic regime as in the dark days of General Sanni Abacha.

In order to avoid further umbrage of the citizens, we call on security agents to immediately release Lenin and others, who still being illegally detained by the State so as not to drive the popular and open protestations of the citizens underground and turn them into violent engagements of the state as history as proven that those who make peaceful protests impossible for Citizens, have always made violent ones inevitable. 

Again, our observations of the protests in Lagos, especially in Alausa, Lekki and Ojota axis have shown connivance between security agents and sponsored hoodlums who randomly unleashed mayhem on peaceful Protesters with hard objects and tear gas cannisters, injuring several unarmed and defenceless protesters in the process. 

Similarly, as Leaders of the Conscience of our country, we frown heavily at this resort to violence by the Police in most northern states as well as the use of Curfews to frustrate the civil rights of citizens to express their dissatisfaction to government policies in the country contrary to the assurances given to us by the Inspector General of Police, Dr Kayode Egbetokun during our consultative meeting with him last week. 

Lastly, we find the growing show of force by security agents and the undemocratic use of state power by sub national authorities unacceptable and subversive of the democratic will of the citizens and therefore call on the President to immediately intervene by calling those involved to order, while initiating dialogue with protest leaders on their key demands as announced in his address to the Nation before the situation get out of hand. 

Signed 

Olawale Okunniyi 

(Veteran Che)

Head, Coordinating Secretariat 

United Action Front of Civil Society

Nigeria has been on tenterhooks in the last one week since the commencement of #EndBadGovernance (or anti-hunger) protests on August 1, 2024. What started as a child’s play has resulted in humongous economic and social costs to the country. While the demonstrations were largely peaceful in the 17 states in southern Nigeria, it was bloody in many parts of the North. Fatalities were recorded in states like Niger, Borno, Kano, Jigawa and Kaduna. Some of the state governors have to declare curfew (in part or wholly) in order to stem the wanton destruction of public facilities and private property. Most shocking is the call for military takeover and hoisting of the Russian flag in some cities of northern Nigeria.

In the 34 years I have been involved in media advocacy, I have been protesting against bad governance through my commentaries in print and broadcast media. As of the last count, which was Saturday, August 3, 2024, my views have been expressed in 73 print media (newspapers, magazines, journals), 60 television stations and 71 radio stations. As an undergraduate student of the University of Lagos, I fully participated in aluta on campus and even outside campus, especially during the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. I was also on the street during the #OccupyNigeria protest of 2012.

I quite understand the utilitarian value of the critical mass of people demanding change and a better life. I therefore support the #EndBadGovernance protest in principle with a proviso that it will be peaceful and without bloodletting. Unfortunately, the turn of events has shown that while the organisers may be clear-headed about demanding better governance, fifth columnists have infiltrated their rank to cash in on the movement for pecuniary and political interest.

Many call out President Bola Tinubu to douse the rising tension by addressing the nation on the demands for better governance. The President obliged last Sunday morning. In a 20-minute speech of 38 paragraphs, the President articulated the economic reforms his government had embarked upon in the last 14 months. Sincerely, Tinubu’s speech since he assumed office as the 16th President of Nigeria never contained the kind of statistics his August 4, 2024 broadcast contained. The President spoke to issues around youth empowerment, agricultural initiatives meant to bring down the rising cost of food, gas initiatives, especially the plan to make Nigeria adopt compressed natural gas as the new fuel for transportation. Tinubu also spoke on infrastructural development in terms of roads and housing, the new minimum wage for Nigerian workers, the consumer credit scheme, the student loans scheme, credit support to nano, micro, small, and medium enterprises and many more.

Although many, including the organisers of the protest, did not agree with him, Tinubu said, “For decades, our economy has remained anaemic and taken a dip because of many misalignments that have stunted our growth. Just over a year ago, our dear country, Nigeria, reached a point where we couldn’t afford to continue the use of temporary solutions to solve long-term problems for the sake of now and our unborn generations. I, therefore, took the painful yet necessary decision to remove fuel subsidies and abolish multiple foreign exchange systems which had constituted a noose around the economic jugular of our nation and impeded our economic development and progress.” One of the demands of the protesters is for Tinubu to return the fuel price to the subsidy era before his inauguration. In all honesty, I don’t think this is feasible, given the economic dislocation this will cost. However, I believe if the Port Harcourt refinery and other private refineries such as the Dangote refinery are functioning, and we exit fuel importation, the price of refined petroleum products will come down significantly.

The President said further that “in the past 14 months, our government has made significant strides in rebuilding the foundation of our economy to carry us into a future of plenty and abundance. On the fiscal side, aggregate government revenues have more than doubled, hitting over N9.1 trillion in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023 due to our efforts at blocking leakages, introducing automation, and mobilising funding creatively without additional burden on the people. Productivity is gradually increasing in the non-oil sector, reaching new levels and taking advantage of the opportunities in the current economic ambience….. Coming from a place where our country spent 97 per cent of all our revenue on debt service; we have been able to reduce that to 68 per cent in the last 13 months. We have also cleared legitimate outstanding foreign exchange obligations of about $5 billion without any adverse impact on our programmes.”

Tinubu said in July 2024, oil production increased to 1.61 million barrels per day, and the nation’s gas assets were receiving the deserved attention. Investors are coming back, and Nigeria has already seen two Foreign Direct Investments signed amounting to over half a billion dollars since then. On the CNG, he opined that he had launched the Compressed Natural Gas Initiative to power the country’s transportation economy and bring costs down. This will save over N 2 trillion a month, being used to import PMS and AGO and free up our resources for more investment in healthcare and education. He said his government would be distributing a million kits of extremely low or at no cost to commercial vehicles that transport people and goods and who currently consume 80 per cent of the imported PMS and AGO. He claimed that his government has started the distribution of conversion kits and the setting up of conversion centres across the country in conjunction with the private sector. He believes that this CNG initiative will reduce transportation costs by approximately 60 per cent and help to curb inflation.

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Under the Students Loan Scheme, he said N45.6bn had already been processed for payment to students and their respective institutions. He said he established the Consumer Credit Corporation with over N200bn to help Nigerians acquire essential products without the need for immediate cash payments. The president said he ordered the release of an additional N50bn each for NELFUND – the student loan, and Credit Corporation from the proceeds of crimes recovered by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

Tinubu further said he secured $620 million under the Digital and Creative Enterprises– a programme to empower young people, creating millions of information technology and technical jobs that would make them globally competitive. These programmes include the 3Million Technical Talents scheme.  In addition, his government has introduced the Skill-Up Artisans Programme; the Nigerian Youth Academy; and the National Youth Talent Export Programme.

Tinubu claimed that more than N570bn had been released to the 36 states to expand livelihood support to their citizens, while 600,000 nano-businesses had benefitted from nano-grants. An additional 400,000 nano-businesses are expected to benefit. Furthermore, 75,000 beneficiaries have been processed to receive our N1 million Micro and Small Business single-digit interest loans, starting this month. His government has also built 10 MSME hubs within the past year, created 240,000 jobs through them and five more hubs are in progress which will be ready by October this year. Payments of N1bn each are also being made to large manufacturers under single-digit loans to boost manufacturing output and stimulate growth. Under his Renewed Hope City and Estates, he is committed to 100,000 housing units over the next three years.

Lastly, the president says he is providing incentives to farmers to increase food production at affordable prices. He claimed to have directed that tariffs and other import duties should be removed on rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, drugs, and other pharmaceutical and medical supplies for the next six months, in the first instance, to help drive down the prices. The president said his government’s target was to cultivate more than 10 million hectares of land to grow what we eat. The Federal Government will provide all necessary incentives for this initiative, whilst the states provide the land. He said he had ordered mechanised farming equipment such as tractors and planters, worth billions of naira from the United States, Belarus, and Brazil.

All the aforementioned initiatives are quite ambitious and will rub off positively on the economy. If genuinely implemented, they will boost employment, alleviate poverty and reduce hunger. My appeal is for civil society organisations and the media to either jointly or separately set up technical committees that will track the performance of the government on these counts. Developing a monitoring and evaluation matrix with the figures reeled out by the President and carrying out on-the-spot assessment is a veritable way of fact-checking the President to know whether he is truthful or lying to the nation.

On Wednesday, July 31, two senior bankers, Tony Elumelu, chairman of UBA Group, and Ladi Balogun, group chief executive of FCMB Holdings, walked into President Tinubu’s office to talk to him about the proposed 70 percent windfall tax imposed on banks’ super profits by the government.

Accompanied by the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, and chairman of FIRS, Zacheus Adedeji, the two bank chiefs tried to convince the president to back down from imposing such a stringent levy on profits made by the banks from foreign exchange revaluation that arose from the devaluation of the naira last financial year.

Both bankers were in fact nominated by the industry to meet the president on its behalf and convince him of the need to withhold assent to the 2024 Finance Bill which contains the controversial 70 percent tax. It is doubtful that the bankers were successful in their mission, according to my informed sources. The president, I was told, welcomed them warmly, but politely turned down their request, lecturing them on why the banks should be prepared to contribute much more to reviving the economy. The government, facing a severe fiscal crisis due to a steady decline in oil revenues in the last several years, believes that the windfall tax will rake in enough revenue to cover a good portion of the deficit in the 2024 budget.

Following the massive devaluation of the naira against the dollar (and other foreign currencies) last year, individuals and businesses that had dollars in their bank accounts suddenly found themselves richer by over 100 percent in naira terms. For the banks which traditionally have large foreign currency holding, the revaluation automatically translated into massive gains and a sharp increase in their profits in 2023 FY – some as high as 200 percent jump from the 2022 figures. It is on this extraordinary gain that the government wishes to impose the 70% tax, in addition to the 30% corporate tax that the banks had already paid.

But the banks are against the draconian levy and their argument is that the tax could significantly reduce profits available to cover non-performing loans and maintain regulatory capital requirements. Reduced profitability, they argue, poses a huge risk to the financial stability of the industry, especially to lenders who are already operating close to regulatory thresholds.

“Many manufacturers in the country are already declaring huge losses due to this same foreign exchange revaluations. What that tells me is that these companies are no longer able to service their loans; these loans are already being classified and are going bad; and the banks will soon take huge write-downs on these loans,” said an executive director in charge of corporate banking in one of the big banks. In other words, today’s super profits will turn into losses tomorrow in the industry.

Another argument is that it is counterproductive to tax banks’ profit while the CBN has recently increased the minimum share capital for all categories of banks. “The profit comes from the capital, and a further tax on profit is tantamount to taxing capital that we are trying to raise,” said a chief financial officer in a bank. There are also investor sentiments. Banks’ share prices have been falling – by between 10% and 15% – since the national assembly passed the bill three weeks ago. “The uncertainty this announcement has created is not good for investors’ confidence in the system,” a bank chief executive told me.

The fact that this tax is imposed retroactively has also raised concerns about its fairness and appropriateness. It is a well-established principle in law that no act of parliament should take retroactive effect. The FIRS is well aware of this in the various litigations it’s been involved in. In one such case (FIRS vs ACUGAS), the Federal High Court, Abuja, on Monday, 27 June 2022, ruled that the FIRS and the Attorney General (the plaintiffs) acted unlawfully by applying the provisions of Finance Act 2019 to transactions that occurred before January 13 2020.

Finally, the imposition of tax on foreign exchange gains presents some kind of dilemma in the industry and to the tax authorities. Are these gains revenue to the banks, which should therefore be subject to corporate income tax, or are they capital gains, which may be subject to capital gains tax? Whatever the case, some analysts are claiming that the so-called windfall profits are mere paper profits as they have not really been realised, and so should not even be taxed.

The weeklong protests rocking the country have momentarily distracted the government’s attention from this bill. I am sure that the president will return to it when calm returns. But before then, the Bank Directors Association of Nigeria will meet on August 12 to take a position on the matter.

In May 2022, the UK government introduced a windfall profit tax on crude oil-producing companies. Known as the Energy Profit tax, it was introduced as a response to soaring oil prices. The government argued that the tax was justified because the companies ‘’were not responsible for the windfall’’. In the first year, the government raised £2.6 billion. It is not clear how much the Nigerian government will raise from the banks, but it is notable that the banks are not resorting to litigation to settle the dispute as some businesses have done in the past. In fact, the interviews Elumelu and Balogun gave to the media after the meeting with Tinubu seem to suggest that the banks will conform if the rate is reduced.

President Bola Tinubu has appointed former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari as the Chairman of the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) board. 

Presidential spokesperson Ajuri Ngelale announced the appointment in a statement.

The newly appointed board also includes Senator Sani Danladi, Sunday Adepoju, Nurudeen Adeyemi, Esther Ukachukwu, Turaki Ibrahim, and Aboh Eduyok.

President Tinubu emphasized the board's crucial role in enhancing the quality of tertiary education in Nigeria and urged members to fully commit to TETFund's mission.

Established in 2011, TETFund ensures equitable fund distribution across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones and monitors project execution to maintain educational standards.