The death, on Sunday, 26th March, 2023, of Gen. Oladipupo Diya, brought memories, fond or otherwise, flooding our memory, chief of which must be the coup, real or concocted, that Diya and other Generals were alleged to have been implicated in, on 21 December, 1997, aimed at toppling the vile dictator, Gen. Sani Abacha. In all, 26 civilians and soldiers were accused of treason, the majority of them Yoruba; they faced the death penalty if found guilty. Dragged before a kangaroo military tribunal and deemed guilty even before the trial had begun, six of the accused, including Diya, were handed the death sentence. The condemned persons however later got a reprieve as their death sentence was commuted to 25-year jail-term. With the death of Abacha on 8 June, 1998, Diya and the others were released by Abacha’s successor, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, on March 3, 1999.

Three events will always remain fresh in my mind when the name of Gen. Diya is mentioned and all three have one thing or the other to do with the pro-democracy activism that attended the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won squarely by MKO Abiola. The election was annulled by the military junta of Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and a heroic battle to upturn the annulment began. NUPENG, led by Frank Kokori, grounded the country as there was no fuel anywhere. The fuel scarcity of that period was worse than the one experienced in the past few months. It was like in those days when there was famine on earth and Tortoise led other beings on a trip to heaven in search of food. A cousin of mine was a prayer partner to Chief Okenla, a friend of Diya. On this fateful day, I accompanied her to the meeting somewhere at Maryland, Ikeja where Diya was present. Afterwards, we complained of no fuel and one of the military top brass who was on hand to receive Diya asked us to follow him to the Ikeja cantonment to fuel our cars. A few metres to the entrance to the cantonment, there was this car driving against traffic towards the cantonment. The General, in mufti, flagged him down. The cockish offender stepped out of his car and announced himself: “I am Captain Ode” The General replied: “Very good! I am General...”! Oh my God! Captain was whisked into the barracks but as fate would have it, he hailed from Owo, just like my cousin and I, and a known face for that matter. We had to whisper that into the ears of Chief Okenla who whispered it to Diya who promptly asked that the offender (aka Odeene) be forgiven.

The second event was during the burial of Pa Adekunle Ajasin (who died on 3 October, 1997), former governor of old Ondo State and NADECO leader. Diya came to represent the Federal Government at the final burial ceremony held inside the St. Andrews Church, Imola Street, Owo. Diya came in commando style and you cannot blame him much; those were the days when NADECO battled the military junta over the annulment of June 12, demanding that the military return to their barracks. Immediately they entered the vicinity of the church, the boys who accompanied Diya began to uproot and throw human beings like stones as they cleared the way for Diya. The service being done with, the VIPs moved to the graveside. When it was the turn of Pa Abraham Adesanya, the man stepping into the shoes of the late Ajasin as NADECO leader, to make his speech and the microphone was handed over to him, the boys swooped on him, snatched the microphone from him and handed it over to Diya. The Number Two man, who enjoyed calling himself the “Vice President of Nigeria” instead of his official title of Chief of General Staff and Vice Chairman of the Provisional Ruling Council, made his speech and immediately zoomed out of the place with his retinue of military aides in tow. Power is sweet!

The third event was during one of those many closures and proscription of the PUNCH newspapers, which I edited in those turbulent June 12 wahala periods. Joshua Agbeniga and I had been detailed to go to Abuja to meet Diya to appeal to him to help us re-open the newspaper. Agbeniga had manned the PUNCH office at Abeokuta when Diya was the Ogun state military administrator and was sure he had an excellent relationship with the Number Two man; together with my own contacts, the management thought we could make an impression on Diya. We booked an appointment through my cousin and went to Abuja. We were ushered into Commodore Olabode George’s office; he was the Principal Staff Officer to Diya. George had a very pleasant personality. I had interacted with him years back when I was Features Editor and he, the Military administrator of my native Ondo state. I had led my team there to interview his wife and First Lady, Feyi. “Lagos Boy”, as he was fondly called, George, with sorrow in his voice and tears in his eyes, told us stories of how Presidency/Northern cabals played on the intelligence of Yoruba Obas and elites to set them against Diya, thereby whittling down the powers and influence of the Number Two man. Were it not for that, he said Diya could have, on his own, re-opened our newspaper only to inform Abacha later.

After a little wait, George led us to Diya’s office where we met him busy on a pile of papers on his table. He greeted us warmly but regretted he could not help. He told us stories which tallied with what his PSO had told us. He then asked us to make our own personal requests. I declined to make any. Then he asked me, “You are from Ondo State, which of these two names will you recommend as your representative in the Constituent Assembly?” The first name, which I cannot now remember, was that of a Commissioner in Ondo state, a Dr. or Ph. D holder, who had recently been relieved of his post over a scandal; and the other name was that of Dr. Bode Olajumoke. I told him the first name, if chosen, would elicit bad press but that I understand the second name is said to be a friend of his boss, Abacha. Eventually, he chose Olajumoke. No sooner had we returned to George’s office than my partner requested that he be taken to see Diya again. George detailed someone to do so. On our way to our lodge at Nicon Noga Hilton, he asked me what the price of a plot of land could be in Abuja. I told him I had no idea.

No one is a saint. Diya was a jolly good fellow. He served under the Devil himself but providence ensured he escaped with his life. Now, he is gone the way of all mortals. Eternal rest, grant him O Lord!

RE: Gov. Akeredolu’s memorial park of controversy

Readers will remember my piece of the above title here last week in which I worried over the reported plan of the governor of my state, Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu, to demolish a building of historical and architectural importance to make way for a memorial park in honour of the victims of the June 12, 2022 terrorist attack on St. Francis Catholic Church, Owo. Our argument was that while the memorial park is a good idea, it should not be used to knock off a building which has history behind it as the place where the likes of Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief SL Akintola, Chief Adekunle Ajasin and other top notch Action Group leaders were hosted during the official launching of the Action Group at the historic and ancient town of Owo on 28th April, 1951.

The good news is that the unexpected has happened: Akeredolu read the story the same day and acted. He decided the same day to spare the building and, furthermore, to convert it into a historical monument, like the first story-building in Nigeria located in Badagry, Lagos state. This tallies with our suggestion and it also sits pretty with the scions of the man who laboured to put up the building in question. Everyone is happy. It is a win-win situation for everyone and for posterity. One of the sons, an elated Banji Alabi, sent this message to me last Wednesday evening: "I just received a USD 9999 billion dollars phone call from the foremost, erudite (and) listening Governor of Ondo State, Arakunrin Rotimi Akeeolu, SAN, who announced to me that my father’s house will now become a monument to be preserved (as) historical heritage". Great! Good news! Arc. Yanju Alabi, my friend and president of my social club, the Krown Klub, Owo, who moved me in the first place to write last week’s story, recounts that House No 6, Igboroko Nla Street Owo was built between 1945 and 1947 and has a lot of historical, architectural and cultural values behind it. He appreciates Gov. Akeredolu and everyone, including this newspaper, that played a role in saving his father’s legacy and preserving it for posterity.

Nigeria has completed the 2023 general elections. This is the most expensive election in Nigerian history. Official budgetary expenditure for the election of president, vice president, governors and deputy governors, and federal and state legislators is about N400billion. Both the election management and the political party systems are broken. The result of this expensive junket will be plenty of election cases for the court to resolve. The judicialization of politics has become a defining characteristic of Nigerian political system. After electorates cast their votes, we still hold our breath to determine who is elected. The courts have the final say. Ordinarily, the courts never get to have a say. In Nigeria, the courts have a say in almost every election, saying the specter of judicialization of politics. Judicialization of politics is not acutest problem of Nigeria’s political governance.

The greatest challenge to democratization as a civic engagement in public leadership in Nigeria is the increasing criminalization of elections in Nigeria. Every election gets worse in Nigeria even as we spend more to make it better than the last. Since 1999, rigged elections have become a permanent feature of the Nigerian political landscape. This is more than the fact that votes are wrongly counted. It is mostly that people don’t actually to get to vote. In the past politicians made a pretense of counting these votes. They allow the people the good feeling that they really matter by taking some pains to count their votes and later replace the result with the super votes of  few men and women who write the real results. They prove true the saying attributed to Stalin that those who could the votes count more than those who cast the votes. Elections in Nigeria are a make-belief. And the make-belief has some ring of truth because, people truly vote. Only that those who count the votes count more than those who vote.

But on March 18, we saw an advancement in the technology of electoral make-belief. This time, we moved from electoral irregularities to electoral criminality. 2023 saw the increased mainstreaming of technology into electoral management. The virtue of technology is that it reduces irregularities and ensures greater reliability and transparency of electoral processes. Yes, technology makes it difficult for those who count the votes to easily override those who do the voting. Bi-Modal Voter Identification System (BIVAS) and the electronic transmission of results reduce the distance between votes and what the counters of votes declare. With that distance significantly narrowed, the only chance for criminal undertakers is to abrogate the right to vote for some, shut down technology and declare the will of ‘sovereigns’ as voting results. That was what desperate politicians and corrupt election managers did.

When you move from electoral irregularities to electoral criminalities, you have come to the end of election. No, that is not the end of election. It is rather the transmutation of election. It is election without democracy. We wrongly believe that elections are the essence of democracy. But democracy is more than elections. Elections are democratic if they meet key requirements. What are the substance and procedure of democracy?

There are two sanctified narratives of democracy. One narrative is based on the idealism of self-determination and the ideology of political equality. Democracy is the condition in which the people express that they are political equals by governing themselves through the laws they make for them. It is the state of political freedom. This ideal of democracy resonates whenever people accept political equality and believe that no one should be constrained and enslaved by the will of others. This ideology has been incorporated in the fundamental law of nations such that democracy is a universal creed to the extent that those who deny political equality continue to call themselves by its hallowed name.

Now, this ideology of democracy is a work in progress. Many scholars and thoughtful people do not accept that any country, even leading liberal societies like the US and UK, have attained democracy as dreamed. The leading scholar of democracy, Robert Dahl, argues that whereas democracy as an ideal is an aspiration which we never get to, democracy is also a set institutional representation that ought to be common experience. This brings us to the second narrative of democracy. In this realistic perspective of democracy, Dahl describes it as representation. It is a system which makes it possible that the government is responsive to the people.

Free and fair elections are at the heart of the second narrative of democracy, which is often called representative democracy or electoral democracy. In this narrative what matters is that people periodically choose their representatives who take over government on their behalf. Joseph Schumpeter was right to describe democracy as a system of government that allows the people to choose their leaders and then disappear. The practice virtue of this realistic perspective is that it is an efficient conflict resolution mechanism. The most persistent and fundamental problem of a society is how to choose who exercises political authority. Elections provide an efficient way of solving that problem. When it is done well it offers legitimacy to the political authority.

Elections are also desirable because they enable us to effectively promote the common good. Popular democracy or Athenian democracy enables everyone to take turns to deliberate and make laws that govern the commonwealth. Like in Athens and some of our villages in acephalous societies like the Igbo every adult male represents himself in person at the Agora. The limitations of this open democracy mean that elections become necessary to delegate some to attend to the common good of all. Where elections are successful, they achieve the strategic value of ensuring that those delegated to attend to the common good are always responsive to the needs and interests of the people who delegate them. In economic development, this responsive to citizens’ interests and opinion is the magic of democracy. Democracy may be a driver of development because it provides the incentives for political leaders to invest in economic development rather than predation. The mechanism that ensures this is free and fair election.

This practice virtues of legitimacy and effectiveness are what makes elections important to democracy. Elections are the heart of democracy because they provide incentives for leaders to cater to the needs of the people and not serve their own interests. Where elections fail as a mechanism of compelling the responsiveness of political authority to the needs and views of the people, then elections are no longer democratic. If we accept the logic of democracy as political equality, it means that every citizen will have an “equal and effective opportunity to vote, and all votes must be counted as equal”. For this to happen, there must be democratic institutions to protect the right to vote and ensure equality of votes.

This is the irony. A country like Nigeria without democratic and fair institutions will not have free and fair elections. Conditions for free and fair elections include that there is ample political freedom for people to form divergent opinions on political questions; that people can freely express such opinions; that people can organize themselves freely to express such views; and that they can trust state institutions not to repress them in the exercise of these political views. These broad human rights are underwritten by a state that is separate from the contending ideological and economic interests. If there are no neutral and professionally managed state institutions and if society has not evolved to the state of competitive balance of force through deep contestation, there can be no free and fair elections.

The 2023 election showed that Nigeria is not yet a democracy because its elections are neither free nor fair. Robert Dahl offers an important aspect of free and fair elections. As he argues, “To be free means that citizens can go to the polls without fear of reprisal; and if they are to be fair, then all votes must be counted as equal” (underline supplied). Considering the mass disenfranchisement of  thee Igbo in Lagos during the March 18, 2023 election, can it be said that the elections were free and fair? Think about many people who did not go to the polling units across the states because of fear of harm. Think about how security agents aided politicians to scare away voters in many places. Think about how many results of votes were mutilated and obliterated because the outcomes did not favor the incumbents.

What is clear to an objective assessor of Nigerian ‘democracy’ is that we do not yet have a democracy, and our elections are not democratic elections. Our election cannot be competitive if the state has not evolved to the state of competitiveness where due to the organizing norm of state institutions, they are impossible to be hijacked by incumbents or other powerful networks to defeat electoral challengers. Liberalization and competition are the two important features of a democratic election. If outsiders cannot successfully compete against ruling party or incumbents because state institutions aid incumbents, if incumbents and political hegemons control the means of violence and could deploy them during elections, then you cannot have democratic elections.

The moral of all these is that it is wiser to invest in building fair and free institutions that are not manipulable by incumbents and political heavyweights than to invest in the technology of free and fair election. Technology that promises reliability and transparency will easily be shut down by unprofessional and captured electoral management body. Imagine what the 2023 elections would have been if had an electoral manager who was above board and not constrained either by mode of appointment or the organization culture to play rogue and security agencies that would protect ballot boxes from banditry, rather than escort the bandits to steal votes and elections. Imagine the difference. This is why you need democracy before you get to free and fair elections.

The violence, aggressive voter suppression and Igbophobia that characterized the 25 February 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections and the 18 March 2023 Governorship and State Assembly contests respectively in Lagos State have raised several concerns. These attributes of Lagos politics, hitherto nuanced, became first weaponized in the run-up to the 2015 Presidential and Governorship elections in the State when the Oba of Lagos was quoted as threatening to drown the Igbos in the Lagoon if they failed to vote for his political preference.

At the root of this conflict is the tension between nativism and cosmopolitanism – a trend discernible in many megacities across the world. Nativism is the quest to protect the assumed interests of native-born or established inhabitants against those regarded as immigrants. Its antonym is the aspirational notion of cosmopolitanism which is premised on the idea that human beings can and should become ‘world citizens’ in a ‘universal community’. While in the Western world the push-back to cosmopolitanism is the mainstreaming of anti-immigrant driven right-wing politics, in Nigeria’s megacities like Lagos where Diaspora-oriented ethnic groups like the Igbos are disproportionally represented, the idea of a ‘universal community’ is confronted by the glaring failures in the country’s nation-building processes.

There has been a tendency to mischaracterize the Igbophobia in Lagos as a response by the Yoruba to an alleged Igbo claim that Lagos is ‘No Man’s Land’ – ostensibly as a prelude to their taking it over. The truth is that the Igbophobia in Lagos has never been a purely Yoruba versus Igbo conflict but largely a scaremongering tactic by the Tinubu political machine in Lagos. The aim has been to ensure that the Igbos are prevented from influencing electoral outcomes in the State. Following the February 25 2023 presidential election in which Tinubu lost the state to Peter Obi’s Labour Party, the scaremongering about the supposed Igbo plans to takeover Lagos was amplified and weaponized by clout-seeking pseudo intellectual clowns like Femi Fani Kayode and Bayo Onanuga and their agbero enforcers like MC Oluomo.

But what happens in Lagos with every election cycle since at least 2015 also brings to fore the unresolved conversation on the relationship between citizenship rights and the rights of indigenes. Chapter Four of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) outlines the Fundamental Rights of all Nigerians, including the right to be free from discrimination while Section 41(1) gives every citizen the right to “move freely throughout Nigeria and to reside in any part thereof.”  Section 43 guarantees every citizen “the right to acquire and own immovable property anywhere in Nigeria.”  These are citizenship rights. There are rightly no constitutional provisions that make these rights dependent on indigene status.  However, what the Constitution fails to take into consideration is that the basis of nationhood remains contested across the country, making host communities generally suspicious of outsiders. While it is not a known practice in any democracy that residents in communities must adopt the voting preferences of their host communities, we may have to revisit the conversation around ‘indigene –settler’ dichotomy and consider whether the aspirational provisions of citizenship rights in our Constitution should be temporarily tinkered with to allay the fears of host communities.

The fear of being ‘suffocated’ by non-indigenes is worsened by what Amy Chua, Professor of Law at Yale Law School, called “market dominant minorities”. In her very important book, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability (2003), Chua explored the inherent tensions and ethnic conflict caused in many societies by the disproportionate economic or political influence wielded by some “market dominant minorities” such as overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia, Whites in Latin America and South Africa, Croats in the former Yugoslavia and Yoruba, Igbos, Kikuyus, Tutsis, Indians and Lebanese, among others, in Sub-Saharan Africa. As she put it: “As markets enrich the market-dominant minority, democratization increases the political voice and power of the frustrated majority.” In essence, nativism in Lagos may actually be part of the problems of globalizing the markets in an era in which liberal democracy has become triumphant. In the case of Lagos, it only became weaponized by politics. For the Igbo in Lagos, the conflict is not helped by the achievement-oriented character of Igbo culture and the lack of subtlety by some in celebrating their successes.

The politically-motivated nativists who drive the Igbophobia during election cycles in Lagos are however unwittingly doing incalculable harm to both Lagos State and their mentor, Bola Tinubu. This is because the Lagos template will gradually be copied across the country as we do with almost everything – from kidnapping to our sartorial tastes. This means that if the courts eventually affirm the election of Tinubu as President, he will move to Abuja where he will be a non-indigene and where the indigenes have probably also been studying the Lagos template. Besides, the militarization of nativism in Lagos sends negative signals to investors, both foreign and local – including the likes of Dangote, Tony Elumelu, Jim Ovia, and Allen Onyema – that their investments outside their ethnic homelands in the country may not be safe. Additionally, the push by the nativists increases the apprehension about a Tinubu presidency – already dogged by numerous controversies and scandals – on whether his presidency would transpose to Abuja the sort of ‘gangster democracy’ we see in Lagos during elections – with thuggery, violence and money as the propellants.

Bigotry is an attitude of mind that must have victims to continue to thrive. Like in the class idiot theory, when one contrived class idiot is forced to leave, the class quickly invents another idiot to take his/her place. The same with bigotry. And this reminds one of the famous lines by Martin Niemöller, initially an anti-Semitic Nazi supporter but whose views on Nazism changed when he was imprisoned in a concentration camp for speaking out against Nazi control of churches. According to Niemöller:

“First they came for the Communists. And I did not speak out because I was not a Communist; “Then they came for the Socialists. And I did not speak out because I was not a Socialist. “Then they came for the trade unionists. And I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist “Then they came for the Jews. And I did not speak out because I was not a Jew.

“Then they came for me. And there was no one left to speak out for me.”

Jideofor Adibe is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Nasarawa State University, Keffi and founder of Adonis & Abbey Publishers. He can be reached at 0705 807 8842 (WhatsApp/Text message only)

In one of my previous articles “Olusegun ‘St’ Matthew Obasanjo, Afe Babalola and ‘interim government’.” I had alerted the nation about surreptitious activities of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his co-travellers plotting and scheming for a self-serving misadventure – “interim government”. It should be noted that I have made several contributions, warning about the anti-democratic tendencies typically characterised by greed and self-centered mind-sets of disgruntled elements parading themselves as elder statesmen.

Admittedly, our realities showed up during the recently concluded presidential election. For those who do not know, former President, Olusegun ‘St’ Matthew’ Aremu Okikiola Obasanjo, was among those, who conceived and midwife the Interim National Government, ING, in 1993, against popular expectations for the declaration of the Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola (MKO), of the blessed memory as the winner of June 12 presidential election.

Firstly, it is important to be informed that Olusegun Obasanjo’s inglorious era laid the foundation of where we are today as a nation. Secondly, Obj is the protagonist of do-or-die politics with a mind-set of it must be “My own ways or nothing” like the saying about a runaway nun who would always speak ill of the convent; Obj predecessors, successors and would-be leaders. Obasanjo in his moment of delusion, willfully suggested truncating of a democratic process in the full glare of the whole world by advising the sitting President to abort an ongoing process through an undemocratic method which is similar to the events leading to the annulment of June 12 1993 general elections.

It is against this backdrop that this contribution will be examining series of unfortunate events and undemocratic activities of Obj’s protege and sponsored candidate in the just concluded general elections Peter Gregory Obi, of the labour party, his running mate Datti Baba-Ahmed, given their penchants for deceitfulness, incendiary comments and promoting violence.

Furthermore, it will completely align with the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Festus Keya­mo, for asking the Department of State Services (DSS) to arrest the flag bearer of the Labour Party, Peter Obi and his run­ning mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed for allegedly ‘riling up’ their supporters popularly known as ‘Obidients’.

Additionally, the International, Diplomatic and Intelligence communities should take note of the inevitable responsibilities of keeping tabs on the activities of the aforementioned disgruntled elements pushing for change through unorthodox means; Olusegun Obasanjo, Afe Babalola, Emmanuel Iwanyanwu, Peter Obi, Datti Baba-Ahmed, Fr Ebube Muonso and many others including the so-called movement “Obidients” which sadly have become very dangerous and a threat to the survival of Nigeria as a nation.

Sadly, the aforementioned disgruntled elements well known for anti-democratic tendencies have successfully heightened tension, weaponized the twin evils of ethnicity and religion leading to unwarranted divisiveness, spreading falsehood and deceitfulness. What is more, Nigeria is sitting on a time bomb as exemplified by the situation all around the country particularly the happenings in the nation’s economic capital city Lagos.

Finally, I like to conclude this article that focuses on the unity of our beloved country Nigeria by appealing to the conscience of stakeholders, our compatriots home and abroad, leaders of faith, royal highness and statesmen to rein in the gladiators promoting divisiveness, encouraging disobedience to constituted authorities and unwarranted attack/hateful campaign against the personality of Asíwájú Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President-elect Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Tony Elumelu, the distinguished birthday celebrant, climbed onto the sixth floor of life on March 22 last week. His wife, Awele, a medical practitioner, was seated beside him at the symposium to mark his 60^th birthday in Lagos. As they listened to one entrepreneur after the other, I could sense that Tony and his wife felt fulfilled as the entrepreneurs shared their success stories.

Decked in a black tie instead of his trademark red tie, Tony smiled most of the time. For a man who has witnessed several glittering and satisfying moments in life, every minute was joyful while the symposium lasted.

The Tony Elumelu Foundation (TEF), the philanthropic arm of Heirs Holdings, was launched in 2010. But the TEF Entrepreneurship Programme for young African entrepreneurs was flagged off in 2015. Tony is the chairman of Heirs Holdings, an African investment conglomerate.

The inspiring success stories by TEF entrepreneurs from some African countries that included Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, Liberia, Kenya, Benin Republic, Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire was proof that Africa’s economy is on the right path for continuous growth and it underscores the need for other African billionaires to follow Tony’s example.

Michael Puyi is a TEF alumnus from Liberia and CEO of Medina Farmers. He described Tony as a “mentor and the lion of Africa.” To date, the farm has sold 60 megaton of rice and supply palm oil to small-scale farmers and the government of Liberia.

Another benefactor, Yaa Aduba Asare, is a Ghanaian poultry farmer who started with 200 chickens and 2,000 eggs weekly. But today, Yaa produces 12,000 eggs weekly and employs six staff – in addition to 20 men and women engaged as casuals in the poultry value chain.

Joycee Awosika (nee Awojoodu) is the founder and chief executive of Oriki Spa, a luxury personal grooming and lifestyle brand that uses natural ingredients to create personal care products for women and men. She passed through the TEF Entrepreneurship Programme as a beneficiary of the first cohort in 2015 and I was her mentor.

I am happy to report that Oriki Spa is part of a group of companies established by Joycee that is doing well. She’s now the mother of two young boys and together with her husband, Tola, who is also a consummate entrepreneur, Joycee is building a global hospitality and wellness business across regions and continents.

In a BusinessDay interview in 2019, Joycee revealed that her passion for natural beauty products started early in life: “My journey into the world of natural oils began at the age of 12 when I mixed avocado, yogurt and olive oil together to make a mask for my hair which awed me.”

She kept the dream alive since that young age by establishing Oriki Spa when she returned to Nigeria from the UK. Joycee also launched PowerCareers, a leading recruitment and training company to bridge the human capacity gap in the energy sector.

These are the testimonies by TEF alumni that thrill Tony each time he hears them as travels round the world and he is encouraged to do more in order to expand his reach and impact. The sector does not matter, according to Tony. What is important is the idea that can be curated for exponential growth.

How do you get to be at the right place at the right time? Tony calls it “democratisation of luck” – when luck meets opportunity and you grab it with both hands. But you must work hard and build a wide network to succeed in whatever you do. You also need character, competence and capacity while not overlooking the importance of communication.

Since the inception of TEF Entrepreneurship Programme, over 18,000 young entrepreneurs in Africa have received nearly $100 million seed funds and they have created over 400,000 jobs. This is truly remarkable!

Every year, each beneficiary receives $5,000 non-refundable seed capital, in addition to training, mentoring and peer-to-peer engagement which allows them to build a formidable network and alumni.

With the increasing number of applications, TEFConnect, a digital proprietary platform, was launched and it has provided capacity building support, advisory and market linkages for nearly 1.5 million SMEs.

TEF may also grant additional $5,000 in loan or equity to some of the businesses founded by these amazing and innovative entrepreneurs. This noble initiative is due to Tony’s philanthropy, large heart and good fortune deployed to serve humanity and make other people’s lives better.

He could have left the money in the bank and earn double-digit interest. After all, he is the chairman of UBA, Africa’s global bank with presence in 20 African countries, Paris, London and New York but entrepreneurs think differently. They like sowing seeds that germinate to create wealth and when they grow their investment, people are employed. The result is an economic ecosystem that thrives.

Tony says nations that prioritised their youth will always do well because they are the future of the world. “Leaders must create the environment that attracts our young ones back home, while those who are at home should remain and prosper,” he says at every opportunity.

A lot of young Africans are travelling mainly to Europe and North America in search of greener pastures. For how long will the brain drain continue?

At a speaking engagement at Columbia Business School in the USA five months ago, Tony, as he always does, motivated and inspired the students, most of whom are keen to start their own businesses. You could literally see the excitement on their faces and the fire in their bellies.

Tony said we must solve African challenges by ourselves. Since government cannot create jobs because they don’t have the capacity to do so, Tony explained that SMEs – the engines of economic growth – are required to create jobs.

Young entrepreneurs create jobs for themselves and others. “When you graduate, you can either get a job or become an entrepreneur or support entrepreneurs,” Tony advised his young audience.

He also said that Africa, the second-largest and second-most populous continent after Asia, must create 10 million jobs every year until 2030 to achieve a critical mass for sustainable growth and development of the continent.

Tony is a global icon and he has become a leading voice for Africa. Last year on March 28, he was honoured as one of the recipients of Time 100 Impact Award which held at the Museum of the Future in Dubai.

At global events such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland or the last climate change conference (COP27) which held in Egypt, his message is consistent and it is about investment in the continent. “Africa needs urgent investment to industrialise and build capacity,” Tony says.

According to him, close to 600 million people live without access to electricity in the continent, and to address the energy poverty, we need investment, technology and knowledge transfer. It will enable clean energy transition in Africa.

The chairman of TEF has had similar speaking engagements at Oxford University and Stanford University. He uses each forum to pitch Africapitalism which is his philosophy on how the private sector can transform Africa through long-term investments in key sectors, thereby creating economic prosperity and social wealth.

For example, Heirs Holdings has investment in the financial services, power, oil and gas, hospitality and healthcare sectors. Tony’s key message is that Africa is the next economic frontier of the world.

Apart from holding 65 per cent of the world’s arable and 10 per cent of the planet’s internal renewable fresh water source, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the largest reserves of cobalt, diamonds, platinum and uranium in the world are in Africa.

Tony was barely 34 years old when he was the CEO of Standard Trust Bank (STB) – the fifth largest bank at the time – that eventually morphed UBA in a talk-of the-town strategic merger when he was 42 years old. In 26 years since his days at STB, Tony has recorded a long list of achievements and 60 years looks so good on him. He wears it confidently and stylishly as he thinks of his next move.

For the 2023 cohort of the entrepreneurship programme, entries are on and will close on March 31.

Let us toast to Tony Elumelu – a great mind, visionary, serial investor and entrepreneur, and the shining star of Africa from Nigeria. Congratulations and may your days be long!

Braimah is a public relations strategist and publisher/editor-in-chief of Naija Times

The prevalence of the comic spirit is one of those distinctive features of Nigerian life and society – one of those things that make us who we are – our capacity to turn every season, every occasion, serious, not so serious, even sombre, into an opportunity for mirth, that is - plain rambunctious, defiant or deprecating laughter. In my earlier life as a teacher of comic theory, it was an interesting time teaching the special veins of wit and humour and how the aesthetics of laughter defines national character and culture, a people’s capacity for word-play, and satire or parody. This trend, embodied in the Nigerian character, North or South, East to West is in part responsible even in an electronic age, for the fantastic humour that Nigerians create on social media. There was so much of this on display during the recent Nigerian election and indeed perhaps, a documentation of the process would be incomplete without recalling some of the highlights of the humour that marked it, from the macabre to the grotesque, the irrational to the verbal magic of some of the key political players and their supporters. This account is merely representative; it is by no means exhaustive.

The place to begin is the verbal gem that the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, then an aspirant, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu dropped in Abeokuta on June 2, 2022 when he used certain words which may well end up as part of Nigeria’s political lexicon viz: “Emilokan. Literally, the Yoruba word means “it is my turn” or “I’m next”. Asiwaju Tinubu had categorically told his audience that it was his turn to become President of Nigeria, having helped the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari to gain power. Highly rated as a kingmaker in Nigeria’s power politics, Tinubu on that occasion announced that the kingmaker was tired of anointing others, he would rather ascend the throne personally. He was firm, assertive and throughout the season that followed, he did not waver despite criticisms that his was an expression of a sense of entitlement and disregard for the right of the electorate to choose. Tinubu’s supporters felt inspired by his confidence. To illustrate his determination, Tinubu said when Buhari failed thrice to become Nigeria’s President – O lu le, once, twice, thrice, he was the one who told the President to wipe his tears, and he helped him in 2015 to achieve his dream. In other words, the auto-suggestion by the APC Presidential aspirant was that it was pay-back time – one good turn, as the cliché states, deserves another. He wanted his goodwill reciprocated. If anyone was in any doubt, Tinubu turned towards the sitting Governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun and told his audience that even “Eleyi” (This One) could not have been Governor without him.

The three phrases in Yoruba and the underlying rhetoric captured public imagination and caught on like wildfire. Musicians in various genres have turned Emilokan into lyrics – each singer adapting the phrase to suit his or her taste and creativity. The National Association of Seadogs – the Pyrates Confraternity, during the group’s 70th celebration in September 2022 came up with an adaptation of the Emilokan phrase in a highly personal, satirical song. Professor Wole Soyinka, father-figure of the Confraternity dismissed the song as distasteful. In a subsequent statement, the group said it was not out to mock or discriminate against the subject and that it was apolitical. The apology was rather late. Disc jockeys, musicians, notably the Afro-beat singer, Dede Mabiaku had done their own re-mix versions of the song. Several other remixes also showed up on social media platforms. But as many would recall, Tinubu’s Emilokan turned out to be prophetic. Days after the Abeokuta incident, he went on to win his party’s primaries in Abuja scoring 1, 271 votes. He defeated 13 other contestants, with some of the original total of 23 aspirants stepping down for him before the commencement of voting. The closest person to him – Rotimi Amaechi then Minister of Transportation scored 316 votes! Tinubu also received the endorsement of President Muhammadu Buhari who raised his hand at several campaign rallies and who voted for him on February 25, enthusiastically showing off his ballot paper to prove that he voted for the APC, even if that gesture amounted to a violation of the Electoral Act 2022. Asiwaju Tinubu was later declared winner of the Presidential election by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) with 8, 794, 726 votes, beating 17 other candidates. Four political parties – PDP, LP, AA and APM and their candidates have since gone to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to challenge the results.

Anyone who in interested in a position now borrows the phrase - Emilokan in the hope that just as Asiwaju Tinubu willed his ambition into reality, their own dreams would also come to pass. The other day, the Senate Chief Whip, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, freshly re-elected (Abia North) generated not a little laughter when he too announced that it is now his turn, and the turn of his village, Igbere, to produce the next Senate President of Nigeria. Our democracy is now becoming “turn by turn” but let’s see if the Emilokan magical word would work for Senator Kalu. In Ogun State, Tinubu’s host who was called “Eleyi” (This One) has been re-elected. Prince Abiodun can now confidently say that he is more than an “Eleyi” in Ogun State, having secured a second term without any Godfather pulling all the strings for him.

Next to Tinubu’s verbal inventiveness would be the memorable exertions of the Governor of Rivers state, Nyesom Wike and his colleague-PDP -Governors – Samuel Ortom (Benue), Seyi Makinde (Oyo) Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu) and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) who took a principled stand that it was the turn of the South to produce Nigeria’s next President, and that it was wrong for their party to have elected a Presidential candidate from the North, and also the Chairman of the party from the North in the person of Senator Iyorchia Ayu. They wanted Ayu to step down as party Chairman at the minimum pre-condition for dialogue. The party refused. Wike was accused of sour grapes, having lost his bid to be the party’s Presidential standard bearer at the primaries. The G-5, as the group was known stood its ground. It later expanded into a bigger body known as the Integrity Group. Publicly, they taunted the PDP and their presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Wike, the obvious leader and main spirit openly identified with members of the APC and Labour Party. Whereas he invited members of those two parties to Rivers State to commission projects and treated them to generous receptions, he snubbed the PDP candidate and members of his own party at the state level who were pro-Atiku.

He made it clear that he would only support the PDP in the state elections, and that he and his colleagues in G-5 would not leave the party. Daniel Bwala, PDP Presidential Council spokesperson derisively referred to the G-5 as the Jackson 5. Other PDP spokespersons – Aare Dele Momodu and Senator Dino Melaye were also convinced that the PDP would not be affected at the polls by the G-5 rebellion. In the just concluded general elections, the PDP paid heavily for this disunity within its ranks. On February 25, it lost in states where it should ordinarily have won because the five Governors did not lift a finger to help their own party’s Presidential candidate. In Enugu, Abia and Benue the PDP Governors lost their bids to go to the Senate- in a karmic sense perhaps. In Oyo State on March 18, Governor Seyi Makinde, also of the G5 survived and was re-elected; in Rivers, Governor Wike fulfilled his promise of installing his own successor (a puppet?) although other parties in that election insist that what happened in Rivers state was not an election.

Before, during and after the election, the G5 would be remembered for introducing to the grammar of politics a song titled: “As e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” It is a triumphal song of defiance and self-assertion. Wike gained much attention with his unique style of dancing to this song and with his usual riposte: “Enough is Enough”. When the dust settles, Wike will not be forgotten for his many colourful displays, sometimes bordering on the farcical and the grotesque. For example, drinking a 40-year-old bottle of whiskey at 11. 30 am and boasting that he would even drink a 50-year-old bottle. Rotimi Amaechi who originally accused Wike of using state resources to consume alcohol has not said anything further on that matter. Any other response has been swallowed! Wike’s response of course would probably be: “As e dey pain dem, he go dey sweet us”. This line has gained currency across the country. When Alex Otti was declared winner of the gubernatorial election in Abia State, after a suspension of the collation of results to resolve alleged irregularities in Obingwa LGA, his supporters trooped to the streets in jubilation. One of the songs on their lips was: “as e dey sweet us, e go dey pain dem.” Nigerians have not heard the last of that song.

Yet another creative figure on the scene is the current Governor of Osun State, Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP. The Osun Gubernatorial election was held on July 16, 2022, and he was declared winner. The APC challenged the victory at the State Election Petition Tribunal. The three-man panel at that Tribunal upturned the election, and handed victory to former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC. Adeleke and the PDP promptly filed an appeal at the Court of Appeal, which has now ruled in favour of Adeleke, upholding his victory. The APC has vowed to go all the way to the Supreme Court. A major thing in Nigeria today is to tell aggrieved election losers to go to Court! Governor Adeleke says he is confident that the Supreme Court would rule in his favour. With Seyi Makinde of Oyo state having joined the G5, and former Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti aligned with the same group, the lot fell on Adeleke of Osun State to lead the PDP in the South West. On February 25, he won Osun State for Atiku. On March 18, the PDP further won 25 out of the 26 seats in the Osun State House of Assembly, losing only in Boripe/Boluwaduro LGA where former Governor Oyetola hails from. But what is most noteworthy about Governor Adeleke is his passion for dancing. He became popular as a Senator of the Federal Republic for his dancing prowess. He and his erstwhile colleague, Dino Melaye turned dancing into a tool of political communication. I have it on good authority that the first day he reported for duty as Governor, the civil servants of Osun asked him to dance for them.

The Osun State Election Petition Tribunal in the lead judgement delivered by Justice Terse Kume, in fact mocked him for always dancing to “Buga” – the song by Kiss Daniel. The Court of Appeal through Justice Mohammad Shuaibu while acknowledging that a judge can speak “obiter” was however of the view that this comment by the lower court was “uncalled for”. The truth is that Governor Adeleke loves to dance. He has even added drumming to it. There is a video in circulation showing him, in the company of others, drumming away with a Bandiri local drum. When he came to The Morning Show (TMS) on Arise TV on Monday, March 27, I had raised the question about dancing and drumming, and whether he is planning to launch a musical band, like his sons - B-Red and Sina Rambo - and his nephew, Davido. His response was that there is a time for everything, thus echoing Ecclesiastes 3: 1 – 11. He also quoted Shakespeare’s Macbeth. I was tempted to ask him to show our viewers a few dance steps. But I let him be. Without doubt, he will be noted for the colour lent to contemporary politics by him and the likes of Dino Melaye - who has since added acrobatic falls to his displays and who now says he wants to be the next Governor of Kogi State.

There is possibly no way I would leave out: “Eluu Pee 74, Eluu Pee 75, 76, 77, Obi 78, Kererenke 79, Obi 80, Obi Nwannem 81..” – a very catchy tune created by Mr. Kleb and Obidients to promote the Labour Party and its Presidential candidate, Peter Obi. The word is a play on the local, Igbo pronounciatiion of the 12th and 16th letters of the English alphabet. Turned into a song, it became an instant hit. The imitative pronounciation was not an issue but the sub-text, and in many instances, Obi’s supporters rounded up the Eluu Pee, antiphonal-responsorial with another song - “Obi kererenke, Obi”. This is an old folk song adapted with reverberating effect as Disc Jockeys and party members turned it into a popular song from Nigeria to Ghana, to Kenya. Peter Obi joined the Labour Party on May 27, 2022. In less than one year, he has transformed a hitherto marginal party into a vote-winning, game changer in Nigerian politics. This should be a useful case study for students of the making of political parties in Africa.

The general, on-cycle elections of 2023 have been concluded except in Kebbi and Adamawa states still declared inconclusive and a few outstanding constituencies in the National Assembly, and over 100 election petitions already filed but one remaining highlight is how the candidate of the PDP, Pastor Umo Eno won the Gubernatorial election in Akwa Ibom State by promising the people: “Happy Hour,” every Friday. His promise is that every Friday, selected restaurants and bars in the state would serve the people food and drinks at a subsidized rate to make the people happy. In his acceptance speech after his declaration as Governor-Elect his key message to the people was: “Happy Hour is Here”. It has been reported that indeed, last Friday, even without a formal take-over as Governor, a “serve them round”, “come and eat”, Happy Hour was declared in the state with people enjoying pepper soup, edikang ikong, tombo and other delicacies at cheaper rates. Pastor Eno has a programme of action called “Arise Agenda” but he has successfully found his way to Government House by grabbing the people through their stomachs. Can he sustain it? How would he ensure fairness, equity and transparency? And would Akwa Ibom close its borders every Friday, because if the “food is ready” programme is sustained, no one should rule out the possibility of people in neighbouring states and even farther away showing up on Fridays in Akwa Ibom. We are effectively in the season of hunger, hypocrisy and political opportunism.

There’s a saying: “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”

This appears to summarise section 299 of Nigeria’s amended 1999 Constitution that designates the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, “as if it were one of the States of the Federation.” That’s, if the FCT mimicks a State, then it’s a State!

This is one of the knotty issues that Justices of the Presidential Election Petitions Court (PEPC) are called upon to untie, by not mere application of the laws, but doing substantial justice to all parties before them.

The main opposition candidates in the February 25, 2023, presidential election have filed petitions in the court, to nullify the return of former Lagos State Governor and candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as winner and President-elect.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party claim they each won the poll, and should be returned elected and sworn in as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Atiku and Obi’s complaints and prayers are contained in separate filings lodged on March 21 and March 20, respectively.

Atiku lists INEC, Tinubu and APC as 1st, 2nd and 3rd Respondents, and has option for fresh poll between him and Tinubu.

While Obi lists INEC, Tinubu, Shettima and APC as 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Respondents, he urges that Tinubu be barred from a repeat election.

Hence their demands vary only in style and language, but both seem to pull the same strings: calls to cancel the prior poll, and order a fresh one, as a last resort.

Below are some of the claims in which Atiku and Obi ask the court to order the Independent National Electoral Commission to withdraw the Certificate of Return it awarded Tinubu, as winner of the election:

(1) Tinubu wasn’t validly elected at the APC primaries, as his running mate, Kashim Shettima, violated the laws as a nominated candidate for Senate and President at the same time.

(2) Tinubu wasn’t qualified to contest having been fined for drugs offences by a U.S. court

(3) For reasons of (1) and (2), the votes credited to Tinubu are wasted votes.

(4) Tinubu didn’t score majority of lawful votes

(5) Tinubu didn’t comply with the laws, as he failed to secure one-quarter (25%) of the votes cast in at least 24 States and the FCT, Abuja.

(6) INEC breached the relevant laws, regulations and guidelines by failing to transmit results from the polling units electronically, and in real time.

(7) INEC reduced the votes of the petitioners, and added votes to Tinubu’s scores, which they pledge to prove with polling unit results and Forensic reports during court proceedings

(8) The election was marred by corrupt malpractices.

In the results announced by INEC, Tinubu won the poll in 12 states, scored 8,794,726 votes, and secured one-quarter (25%) of the votes cast in 27 of 36 States – that’s three States more than the 24 required by law.

The INEC Chairman and Chief Returning Officer for the poll, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, declared Tinubu winner and President-elect.

But Atiku, who won in 12 states, polled 6,984,520 votes, and secured 25% in 17 states; and Obi, who claimed 11 states, scored 6,101,533 votes, and secured 25% in 15 states, disagreed with INEC’s returns.

They argue in their petitions that Tinubu didn’t meet requirements of the law, viz: 1999 Constitution (as amended), and Electoral Act 2022.

Among the issues raised is a potential boobytrap for a candidate not securing one-quarter of votes cast in at least 24 States and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

What does the Constitution say about election of two or more Presidential candidates? Let’s look at section 134(2)-(4) that deals with the scenario of February 25.

“134(2) A candidate for election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election–

(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and

(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

(3) In default of a candidate duly elected in accordance with subsection (2) of this section, there shall be a second election in accordance with subsection (4) of this section at which the only candidate shall be–

(a) the candidate who scored the highest number of votes at any election held in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and

(b) one among the candidates who has a majority of votes in the highest number of States, so however that where there are more than one candidate with a majority of votes in the highest number of States, the candidate among them with the highest total of votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.

(4) In default of a candidate duly elected under the foregoing subsections, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall within seven days of the result of the election held under the said subsections, arrange for an election between the two candidates and a candidate at such election shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of President if–

(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and

(b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.”

Going by INEC’s declaration, Tinubu secured not less than 25% in at least 27 States. But he secured 19% in the FCT, which Obi, who scored 59% there, places heavy weather on.

The implication of this is that if the court pronounced the FCT as a State, and Tinubu scored 19% of votes there, his victory would be annulled, and a second poll organised between him and Atiku, who’s runner-up to Tinubu.

In that case Obi – the second runner-up – would be out of the race. This may explain his plea to bar Tinubu from any fresh poll, so he (Obi) and Atiku would duke it out.

That circumstance would present two candidates appealing to ethnic and religious sentiments, with Atiku guaranteed the Presidency without breaking any sweat.

Inevitably, power would elude the South – and remain in the North – after President Muhammadu Buhari would’ve completed his eight-year tenure on May 29, 2023.

This brings us to the burning issue: Is the FCT, Abuja, a State – as defined by sections 2(2), and 3(1), (3) of the 1999 Constitution?

While section 2(2) states that, “Nigeria shall be a Federation consisting of States and a Federal Capital Territory,” and section 3(1) lists the 36 States (excluding the FCT); section 3(3) states that, “The headquarters of the Government of each State shall be known as the Capital City of that State…

If the FCT, Abuja, is a State, what’s the name and location of its Capital City in the Territory?

Proponents easily refer to Section 299 of the Constitution, to justify their claim that the FCT is a State.

Section 299 states that: “The provisions of this Constitution shall apply to the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja as if it were one of the States of the Federation…”

Section 299(a) states that all legislative, executive and judicial powers vested in the House of Assembly, the Governor and the courts of a State shall, respectively, vest in the National Assembly, the President and in the courts… established for the FCT, Abuja.

Section 297(2) vest “ownership of all lands… in FCT, Abuja in the Federal Government,” as if the area is a State, as all lands in a State is vested in the Governor.

Section 300 says that the FCT, Abuja, shall constitute “one Senatorial district…” (and not one State, as purports section 299).

Section 301 says without prejudice to section 299 in its application to the FCT, Abuja, this Constitution shall be construed as if–
(a) references to the Governor, Deputy Governor and executive council of a State… were references to the President, Vice President and the executive council of the Federation, respectively.

Ditto for (b): that references to the Chief Judge and High Court Judges of a State were references to the Chief Judge and Judges of the High Court established for the FCT, Abuja.

Section 302 says the President may… by section 147 of the Constitution… appoint for the FCT, Abuja “a Minister who may exercise such powers and perform such functions as may be delegated to him by the President, from time to time.”

Did the framers of the Constitution truly envisage a President doubling as Governor of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, where Ministers and other officials act as Commissioners and officials of a State Government?

Despite the posturing, the FCT is akin to a “Protected Area” of the Federation administered by organs of the Federal Government.

Will the Justices of the Presidential Election Petitions Court arrive at a contrary decision? They certainly have their work cut out for them, to deliver substantial justice to all parties to the petitions!

A recent visit to Addis Ababa – the centre of African diplomacy and home of the African Union (AU) – triggered musings on the outlook for the continent in 2023. The concerns among “Afrocrats” in the Chinese-constructed AU Commission glass building revolved around restoring stability to the Sahel, Somalia, South Sudan, Libya, and the eastern Congo; implementing the Tigray peace accord with Addis Ababa; pushing for greater African representation on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and the Group of 20; and achieving an African Free Trade Area by 2034, built around eight subregional pillars. But, how can one square these lofty aspirations with continental realities in 2023?

West Africa: Marabouts and Militaries

The year started with elections in Nigeria: Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, with 64% of West Africa’s economic might. Despite a low turn-out of 27% amidst a chaotic change of currency and fuel shortages, it appears – barring a successful court challenge - that the veteran septuagenarian and political marabout, Bola Tinubu, will become the country’s next president. He would inherit a $98 billion national debt and widespread insecurity that led to 10,000 deaths last year. Nigeria which had led praiseworthy Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) peacekeeping missions to stabilise Liberia and Sierra Leone in the 1990s, has now become an exporter of insecurity across the Lake Chad Basin, a Gulliver tied down by troubles that prevent it from establishing a Pax Nigeriana.

This has opened the space for coup-making colonels and captains to seize power in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, even as instability has spread across Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire. Mali’s Colonel Assimi Goïta is struggling to contain a decade-long insurgency in which Islamic militants have taken over large parts of north and central Mali. The situation is exacerbated by a geo-political rivalry between France and Russia which has seen the expulsion of French troops and the increasing use of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries. A 12,000-strong UN force, with a limited mandate, has struggled to keep the peace. There are also reports of the presence of Wagner “guns-for-hire” in neighbouring Burkina Faso – led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré - which similarly halted its cooperation with the French gendarme and, like Mali, expelled the French ambassador from its country. Traoré has lost half of his country to Islamic jihadists, with two million people displaced. Niger – with a $100 million American drone base and military presence – also continues to suffer from jihadist attacks. Guinea’s Colonel Mamady Doumbouya has, however, largely avoided the scourge of jihadists that are bedevilling his neighbours.

Southern Africa: Limping Liberationists

Flood-hit Southern Africa continues to see dominant liberation parties stubbornly clinging to power, but losing support and legitimacy. South Africa accounts for 60% of the subregional economy. Its ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been wracked by factional fighting and corruption scandals in which state utilities have been milked as cash cows. The outcome of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala farm scandal - in which a large amount of dollars was stuffed into furniture on his farm – may well be a watershed moment for the rule of law in the post-apartheid era. The ruling party could dip below 50% in polls next year, and would, in such a scenario, need a coalition to stay in power. Angola’s Joăo Lourenço only narrowly won re-election last August in a country in which entrepreneurial generals are still powerful. This mirrors neighbouring Zimbabwe where a repressive politico-military complex will use any means to prevent an opposition electoral victory this July. Mozambique’s Filipe Nyusi will continue to struggle to contain an insurgency in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province. European Union (EU)-funded Rwandan peace enforcers – backed by a Southern African peacekeeping force – will continue to lead the fight to protect the regime and Western corporate interests, resulting in muted Western criticism of Kigali’s intervention in the eastern Congo.

Central Africa: Congo, Cameroon, and Crises

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is scheduled to hold elections in December, and along with oil-rich Cameroon, accounts for 60% of Central Africa’s economy. Rwanda, however, has been accused by UN experts of fomenting unrest in the eastern Congo using M23 rebels. A staggering 5.8 million people remain displaced in the eastern Congo in a conflict that has raged for over two decades. Cameroon’s French-backed, seemingly senile, 90-year old president, Paul Biya, has now entered the fourth decade of his misrule that has triggered a separatist conflict in the West of the country. War-ravaged Central African Republic – another theatre in which Pax Russica has battled Pax Gallica - has one million displaced people, with 16,000 UN peacekeepers mostly observing the slaughter for a decade.

Eastern Africa: Conflict and Cooperation

In Eastern Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia account for half of a subregional economy still threatened by drought and famine in 2023. Conflict has displaced 4 million people in South Sudan, with Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Central Equatoria particularly volatile, and 76% of the population - 9.4 million people – will need humanitarian assistance this year. Military brass hats will continue to wield power in neighbouring Sudan in 2023, despite half-hearted efforts to transition to civilian rule. Two million people have been displaced in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. AU troops have kept parts of Somalia stable amidst continuing attacks by al-Shabaab militants, while the AU-brokered Ethiopian peace treaty with the Tigray region has ended a destructive two-year conflict which killed an estimated 600,000 people. Amidst these crises, there are some hopeful signs of successful regional integration in 2023: Uganda and Tanzania are completing an East African Crude Oil Pipeline; Kenya and Tanzania will continue to resolve beggar-thy-neighbour trade disputes in order to bolster a $1 billion bilateral trade relationship; while the East African Community (EAC) has brought the DRC into its club, and will conclude the deployment of peacekeepers to the eastern Congo.

North Africa: Dog Days in the Desert

Finally, North Africa will continue to experience political autocracy and economic stagnation in 2023. Egypt and Algeria account for nearly three quarters of the subregional economy. Autocratic rule is firmly entrenched in Cairo under Abdel Fattah al-Sisi who has stifled all dissent. Monarchical rule is also increasingly practised in Tunis under Kaïs Saïed whose dog whistle xenophobic outburst against black Africans resulted in attacks against them, culminating in mass evacuations by West African governments. Libya will continue to struggle to hold elections this year in order to unite a country divided by a dozen years of conflict following the NATO-assisted fall of Muammar Qaddafi. Morocco’s King Mohammed VI’s health will remain a concern, while bilateral relations with Algiers will continue to be tense. Algeria’s politico-military-business rulers – le pouvoir - will continue to pull the strings, backed by high oil and gas prices that will be used to calm discontent. Algiers will also continue its delicate balancing act of juggling close economic ties with the West with strong military ties with Moscow.

Africa will thus resiliently continue to muddle through in 2023.

Professor Adekeye Adebajo is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Pretoria’s Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship in South Africa.