No matter who wins the November 5^th presidential election in the United States of America, history will be made. If Kamala Harris carries the day, she will become America’s first female president and the second person of colour to occupy that storied office. If Donald Trump triumphs, he will become the second US former president to win two non-consecutive terms, the first being Grover Cleveland who lost his re-election bid in 1888 but regained the office in the 1892 election (and who also happened to be the first and only American president to have gotten married while in the White House).

But the historic significance of whatever happens on Tuesday goes beyond the personal record that will be set by one of the two candidates. It is more about what it says about the state of politics in the US, about what is likely to happen after the election is called, and what the outcome will mean for rest of the world. Post-World War II, America has held outsized significance for global economic and political order. America’s presidential elections are thus closely monitored around world. But there is an extra significance this time around. The world is in a fragile place. How America votes on Tuesday is likely to moderate or deepen this fragility.

The global political and economic order will be the last thing on the minds of the majority of the 180 million Americans who will elect the next president. This is understandable. America itself is in a strange place. It is largely an insular and polarised country, but it is more insular and more polarised today than at any other period in modern times. American voters will be preoccupied with how to navigate the contours of the strange territory they have found themselves. They have pressing local issues to sort out, and the world can wait. In any case, they are electing the next president of the USA, not of the world, and they are the only ones with votes in this pivotal election.

However, the rest of the world will be impacted—for ill or for good, slightly or significantly—by how the Americans vote. This itself is a strange place to be. Others are mere spectators in a game that is likely to have real effects on their fortunes. And unlike spectators in say a football game, they can’t even shape the outcome with the decibel of their support. They can only hope for their preferred side to edge out the other side. But there is another useful thing they can do: they can start to actively prepare for what victory for either Harris or Trump may portend for the global order in general and for their individual countries in particular.

This is more so because the election can go either way, and it is important not to be caught napping. As at this morning, the election, according to most aggregate polls, remains a toss-up. It is a rare sight in American elections for projections to be this tight just a few days to the presidential election. It is important to acknowledge that American election projections/polls have been off a few times either because of errors in polling methods or the bias of pollsters. But in most instances, the majority of pollsters call the election one way or the other ahead of polling day.

We won’t know if the supporters of a candidate have been over-sampled or under-sampled until the actual results are declared. The way things stand, it is safe to project that the election remains close and that the outcome may be decided by which of the candidates/parties succeeds in wooing the few remaining undecided voters to their side and whose get-out-the-vote (GOTV) machine is more effective. At the end of the day, this election may be decided by either the level of turnout overall or by a few thousand voters in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.   

How Donald Trump has stayed this strong to the extent that he stands a good chance of winning the election still confounds many watchers of US politics. Against an established American tradition, Trump denied losing the 2020 election and said his victory was stolen. He rallied his supporters to ‘Stop the Steal,’ tried to bully state officials to tilt the election in his favour, and gave more than a wink to those who stormed the Capitol on January 6^th, 2021. These were acts thought unimaginable in America, even in the earliest days of its democratic experiment. Trump has a string of indictments and convictions around his neck, he remains a polarising figure, he keeps saying outrageous things against his opponents and those who disagree with him, including threatening those he has termed enemies of the state, and many of the senior officials who worked with him during his first term have said he is unfit for that esteemed office.

Ordinarily, by American and Western standards, Trump’s political career should be dead and buried by now. But the death of his political life has been widely exaggerated. He has remained a major political force and he may as well make a historic return to the White House, and even if he doesn’t make it, he will come closer than the other five US former presidents who tried unsuccessfully to make a return to the White House (and let’s hope his failure will not be followed by the kind of political violence usually associated with the Third World).

There are many reasons for Trump’s improbable resilience in American politics. One, Trump has successfully narrativized the 2020 election as stolen and his trials as persecution. There are those who see him as a victim. Two, his undiplomatic language/approach is seen as a departure from the usual guile of politicians, and most Americans have become so immune to his bad form that they readily give him a pass. Three, American politics is more polarised than ever, and he retains near total control of the Republican Party and has a strong appeal for those who feel they got the short end of globalisation.

So, his gratuitous slander of immigrants and his promise to deport record number of illegal immigrants and impose high tariffs on imports (especially from China) strikes a chord with many blue-collar workers who think outsiders are stealing their jobs. Some have framed this racist pushback, because the core of Trump’s MAGA crowd is white and male. But things are more nuanced, as evident from the support that Trump is now receiving from black and Latino males and from Muslims.

A major driver of Trump’s strong appeal is the state of the economy post-pandemic. America’s economy has recovered well, it is growing at a decent clip (2.8% in Q3-2024), and it is still the envy of the world. Inflation has tracked down from a peak of 9.1% to 2.4%, and after keeping interest rates high for a long time, the Federal Reserves cut the benchmark rate by 0.5% in September and is projected to make further cuts next week. But these macro data is not making as much dent on the standard of living of average Americans who still remember when, not long ago, they used to buy basic things at much lower prices and didn’t have as much struggle paying their bills. That era, just a few years ago, happened to coincide with when Trump was president. Also, many entrepreneurs think Trump will be better for their bottomline.

So, while a significant number of Americans who will vote for Trump do not approve of his style and morality, they think he will be better for their welfare. It is a form of nostalgia, which may not stand close interrogation. But it doesn’t matter. Politics is largely about perception. The key message of the Democrats, especially their flagbearer, has been about how nasty a person Trump is and about how much threat he poses to democracy. Character and institutions still remain important. But they become abstracts when compared to bread and butter issues and they do not resonate with people as much as their ability to pay their bills without stress. Politics is personal.

Other factors that have helped Trump include the obvious cognitive deterioration of President Joe Biden, which forced him off the race four months to the election, the anger of the youth (who believe that Biden didn’t do enough to protect the Palestinians and thus are not excited about turning out for the Democrats) and the short time that Harris has had to define herself as well as her difficulty in erecting a distance between her and an administration in which she is effectively a co-pilot. But she may still be able to swing the presidency her way, especially if women who think that Trump constitutes a threat to their reproductive freedom pour out in record number for her and if she outperforms Trump in most of the battleground states.

There are analysts who feel that the outcome of the election will not have much effect on America’s domestic and foreign policies. They base their analysis on the hope that even Trump will not be able to carry out his many threats either because the institutional guardrails of America will hold firm or because commonsense will prevail. They may end up being right. At the domestic level, there is not much difference in the policy proposals of the two candidates, as Trump has successfully remade American policy landscape in his image, (a case that The Economist made persuasively recently through a review of policy proposals in eight policy areas), and the fact that the Democratic Party has moved mostly to the right to counter the Trump effect. In any case, American politics and economy are sturdy enough to withstand the next four years. America, largely, will be fine.

At the foreign level, however, is where we should worry and brace up for a tumultuous ride. Harris offers a safer bet for the global order. Even if there will be tweaks on her approach to Israel and Ukraine, she is likely to continue on the same path as Biden. But Trump presents a different proposition. While it will sound great to some Americans, Trump’s threat to impose 20% tariffs on all imports and 60% tariffs on imports from China may not only trigger a tariff war that the world does not need but also put free trade and the fragile global economy at risk. His ultra-nationalistic posture will have serious implications for multi-lateral institutions like the United Nations and for traction on global causes like climate change.

The delicate balance of a multipolar world is also likely to be strained under a Trump presidency, and it is important to proactively think about how Trump’s approach and preferences will impact US relations with Europe and China on one hand and the ongoing/potential wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Iran on the other. In capitals around the world, foreign policy experts should be mapping the various scenarios, thinking through their possible responses and preparing for whatever choice America makes on Tuesday. The rest of the world doesn’t have a vote in America’s most consequential election in generations. But it can at least ready itself for the outcome.

Naija News reports that May made this revelation in an interview with Nigerian comedian, Ayo Makun, better known as AY, on his podcast.

May said she has been turning down several movie roles for the past three years.

The businesswoman cum social media influencer added that she does not want to be an actress, even though she is a jack of all trades.

She said, “Omoni said she doesn’t know how I am going to do it, I can’t tell her No. I told her that for the past 3 years, I had gotten script and movie roles, and people were willing to pay mouthwatering amounts. You know, producers have been calling, directors have been calling, some familiar faces have called, and I have rejected everything.

“I said I didn’t want to be an actor or actress. I know that I am this kind of jack of all trades, master of all kinds, type of person. There are a whole lot of things I can do if I set my mind on it.”

[NaijaNews]

The Presidency has denied the allegation that the current administration is favouring the South West at the expense of other regions in terms of appointments in the security sector.

After the appointment of Major General Olufemi Oluyede as Acting Chief of Army Staff, many persons, especially on Social Media, accused President Bola Tinubu of “Yorubanisation”, a term which losely interprets as favouring the Yoruba.

Oluyede was appointed to stand in for General Tahoreed Lagbaja, Chief of Army Staff, who has been away from the country treating an undisclosed ailment.

Some Nigerian had argued that there were equally competent generals who could stand in for Lagbaja other than another person from the South West.

Apparently weighing into the conversation, Sunday Dare, Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications and Orientation, shared a list of the heads of security agencies appointed by Tinubu.

According to the list, the North West has the highest appointees (eight), followed by the South West (five) and North Central (four).

North East has three appointees, according to the presidential aide’s list, while South South and South East have one each.

“Facts do not lie. Below we see laid bare the facts about the regional outlook of President Tinubu’s appointments within 20 security agencies. The label of him favouring Yorubas in the Security set up does not fit. Nigeria we hail thee!,” Dare captioned the post.

[DailyTrust]

Dangote Refinery on Saturday tagged as fake the allegation that it sells petrol between N1, 015 and N1, 028/litre.

Some oil marketers had reportedly on Friday said the price of petrol, produced by the Dangote Refinery stood between N1, 015 and N1, 028/litre.

They said it would be reasonable to import the product from the international market as the landing cost stood at N978.01/litre as of October 31, 2024.

Reacting to the development, Dangote Group on its X handle dismissed the allegation as ‘fake news’.

DAILY POST reported that the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, had claimed that the price of fuel from Dangote Refinery, as of last week, was higher than in other places.

Yakubu Suleiman, National Assistant Secretary of IPMAN stated this on Friday while fielding questions on Arise Television’s Morning Show programme.

Suleiman said IPMAN members would go where the price is lower and where they get profit, adding that they have to pity Nigerians.

[DailyPost]

Antoine Semenyo and Evanlison scored as Bournemouth sealed their first-ever win against Manchester City at Vitality Stadium.

The Cherries, in good form after picking up four points from their last two games against Aston Villa and Arsenal, started quickly and full of positivity.

Ederson was forced into a double save after just two minutes as he denied Semenyo and Justin Kluivert.

With the tone set, Bournemouth continued to press high and they were rewarded in the ninth minute when Milos Kerkez’s cut-back from the byeline was turned in by Semenyo.

City failed to muster an attempt on target during a largely frustrating first half.

Bournemouth came out for the second period full of confidence and were close to doubling their lead in the first minute, but Ederson was sharply off his line to keep Evanlison’s effort out.

Evanlison made sure with his next opportunity, though, sliding to meet Kerkez’s low ball and nestling it into the bottom corner.

The hosts should have made it three moments later but Adam Smith, presented with an open goal, blazed over the bar after Marcus Tavernier’s shot came back off the post.

City finally registered an attempt on target in the 80th minute, albeit a tame one, with Erling Haaland struggling to get any power on his volley.

And two minutes later, Josko Gvardiol headed beyond a despairing Mark Travers to offer hope but the Premier League champions were unable to grab an equaliser.

The defeat means City slip to second after Liverpool came-from-behind to beat Brighton, while Bournemouth climb up to eighth.

[TheNation]

The Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its Third Quarter Capital Market Committee meeting.

According to a statement by the SEC on Saturday, the meeting earlier fixed for November 14, 2024, was postponed to allow the commission to attend to urgent regulatory commitments.

The CMC is an industry-wide body comprising the SEC, capital market operators, trade groups, and other stakeholders.

It serves as a pivotal platform for dialogue, facilitates the exchange of ideas, addresses key issues affecting market growth and organisation, and collaborates on shaping the market’s future.

The committee was established primarily as a means for stakeholders to exchange ideas and provide feedback to the SEC, aiding in the continuous improvement of market operations and regulatory frameworks.

The meeting draws CEOs from all registered capital market firms, including brokers/dealers, investment advisers, custodians, fund/portfolio managers, and more.

The statement read, “The Commission is constrained to postpone the forthcoming Capital Market Committee meeting to allow the Commission to attend to urgent regulatory commitments.

“We will communicate the new date in the coming days. We sincerely apologize for any inconveniences caused by the postponement.”

The CMC was primarily established to serve as a medium for the exchange of ideas among market stakeholders as well as an avenue for providing feedback to the SEC on how to continuously address challenges, improve market operations and enhance the regulatory framework.

It is an industry-wide committee comprising members of the SEC, representatives of capital market operators and trade groups and other stakeholders. The CMC meets every quarter.

[Punch]

Oyo State Governor, ‘Seyi Makinde has declared that the 2027 election will be a decisive moment for the Nigerian populace, stating it will be a choice between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the citizens themselves.

He stated this on Saturday, during the commissioning of the newly built ultra-modern Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Southwest zonal secretariat in Ibadan, Oyo State, which was named in honour of the late Soji Adagunodo, a former Southwest Chairman of the PDP.

Makinde criticised the APC’s governance, asserting that the party has failed to deliver on its promises.

“The APC has been at the helm of affairs in this country, and they have woefully failed us. The people of Nigeria must now decide whether to retain them in power or vote them out,” he stated.

Emphasising the urgency of the situation, he added, “Nigerians are suffering, and there must be an end to it. We need to unite and push for change.”

He stressed that the forthcoming election will not merely be a contest between the APC and the PDP, but rather a referendum on the APC’s governance, with the Nigerian populace at the center of this decision-making process.

In addressing the internal conflicts within the PDP, Makinde called on the party’s leadership to take decisive action, adding, “The enemies of the party are within, not the opposition parties,” urging members to work together to heal the rifts.

He insisted that the party must maintain its unity in the Southwest, saying, “We must not allow the ruling party to disrupt the peace we have worked hard to create.”

Regarding his potential presidential aspirations, Makinde remarked, “I am old enough to make my own decisions about contesting or not. The current realities in the country will guide my choices.”

His comments reflect a thoughtful consideration of the political landscape as the 2027 election approaches.

In a related development, Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke advocated deeper introspection within the PDP to find lasting solutions to its internal conflicts.

“We must engage in honest discussions and reflections to heal our party and move forward together,” he noted, emphasising the need for unity and collaboration among party members.

“Our strength lies in our ability to come together as one. It is time to build bridges, not walls, within our party.”

He further called for a commitment to the party’s foundational values, remarking, “We must remember why we are here, to serve the people and uphold democracy.”

While addressing the gathering, PDP’s acting national chairman, Ambassador Illiya Damagum, extended his congratulations to all PDP governors for their commendable representation in their respective states, stating, “Our governors are the backbone of our party, showcasing the values we stand for across the nation.”

In his address of welcome, PDP zonal chairman Bar. Kamorudeen Ajisafe, represented by Zonal Secretary Hon. Rahman Owokoniran, acknowledged the significant efforts of party leaders and elders in restoring peace within the party.

“It is imperative that we channel our collective strength towards unseating the ruling party to ensure a better democracy for our people,” he urged.

In his remarks, one of the sons of the deceased, Soji Adagunodo Jr., expressed gratitude for the honour bestowed upon his father.

Adagunodo Jr. encouraged the PDP leadership to leverage this new space as a “solution house” for the party and the country, saying, “Let this edifice inspire us to seek real solutions for the myriad issues confronting our people and the nation.”

The commissioning event was attended by notable figures including state’s deputy governor, Adebayo Lawal; 2023 Ogun State PDP governorship candidate, Chief Ladi Adebutu, Ondo State PDP governorship candidate, Agboola Ajayi and several other party officials, such as Zonal Organizing Secretary Hon. Benson Aruwa and Zonal Women Leader Chief Mrs. Bosede Adedibu.

Former Governors Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Okezie Ikpeazu, and Samuel Ortom, along with PDP National Vice Chairman for the South, Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja, and former National Vice Chairman for the South, Dr. Eddy Olafeso, were also present, underscoring the PDP’s unity and strength in the Southwest region.

Notable senators and local representatives, including Senator Monsurat Sunmonu and Senator Gbenga Babalola, were also present to commemorate the occasion, highlighting the unity and strength of the PDP in the southwest region.

[Vanguard]

The Nigerian Copyright Commission (NCC) says its operatives confiscated alleged pirated books valued at N23.1 million during raids on bookshops in Uyo, capital of Akwa Ibom.

Speaking during the operation, John Asein, NCC director general, said the exercise aims to eradicate pirated works nationwide and establish a robust copyright framework.

Asein, who was represented by Macfoy Akachukwu, deputy director of operations, said the commission targeted piracy in Uyo and surrounding areas via this enforcement effort.

NAN quoted the DG as identifying the raided bookshops as AB Achison, God’s Own, Academic Needs, Zion in Uyo and POP Bookshop in Abak, Akwa Ibom.

“The books seized during the raid to include: Basic Civic Education by Dr Merry Ukaegbu, Spectrum New Further Mathematics by T.R. Moses and Essential Christian Religious Study for Senior Secondary Schools by Orovwuje B.O and Okolie E.U.,” he said.

“Macmillan Brilliant English for Junior Secondary Schools by Wale Ossianwo, New General Basic Science for Junior Secondary Schools by S. Ajayi.

“Others books seized included: New Oxford Secondary English Course for Secondary Schools by Ayo Banjo and New Concept Mathematics for Senior Secondary Schools by H.N. Odogwu and others.

“The books seized were those in the stables of major publishers like Evans, UPL, Lantern, Longman, TONAD, Pearson among others.”

Asein said the commission will persist in combating piracy, empowering authors and the creative sector to boost Nigeria’s economic development.

“What we have done is part of the commission’s mandate to protect and promote the rights of authors and other genuine investors in the copyright book industry,” he said.

“It is our duty to ensure that authors get rewards for their creative work. I have under my watch, zero tolerance for piracy and infringement of Copyright Laws.”

The NCC DG said suspects would be prosecuted to deter others, adding that the commission needs public support with credible information to combat piracy nationwide.

[TheCable]

A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Joe Igbokwe has chided politicians, who according to him, are using poor innocent children for their selfish political gains.

This is coming amid the outrage that greeted the arraignment of minors who were arrested in August this year for protesting against hunger.

DAILY POST reports that the protesters, described as minors, were arraigned and later granted N10 million bail each on Friday, while the matter was adjourned till January 2025.

In a post on his official Facebook page on Saturday, the APC chieftain blamed the development on politicians who instigated the violent protests.

He wrote, “It is evil and despicable to use other peoples Children to play politics.  Meanwhile your Children are studying in the best Universities across the world.

“Ok, you think you can destroy other peoples Children and your own will excel abi? Oga put on your thinking cap and learn. The law of Karma is still there oooo”.

[DailyPost]