On July 26, 2023, Mohamed Bazoum, the elected president of the Republic of Niger was pushed aside in a coup d’etat. This is an unfortunate development. However, the coup makers are consolidating and mobilizing the populace towards an acceptance of the development.
 
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu rightly called for an extraordinary summit of the ECOWAS Authority on July 30th, and a communique was issued at the end of the meeting. The ECOWAS Authority put in place a number of sanctions, including closure of land and air borders between ECOWAS countries and Niger Republic, institution of an ECOWAS no fly zone on all commercial flights to and from Niger and freezing of the country’s assets in ECOWAS states. Going further, the ECOWAS Authority issued an ultimatum seeking the restoration of the overthrown order within seven days, and threatened the probable use of force for non-compliance and in this regard, asked the ECOWAS Chiefs of Defense Staff to start meeting.
 
A number of questions need to be answered before the Nigerian government goes to war:

1. Has the necessary resolution of the UN Security Council been sought with a certainty that there will be no veto making an ECOWAS war illegal as ECOWAS got stopped over Cote d’Ivoire?

2. Has costs and benefits analysis been done by the Nigerian authorities for the short, medium, and long-term, especially under the current financial problems Nigeria is facing?

3. Given the refusal to reimburse Nigeria’s efforts in Sierra Leone and Liberia in the past, is Nigeria able to fund a possible war with the Niger Republic as others in ECOWAS cajole her to lead, and as usual carry most, if not all of the yoke?

4. How will the ECOWAS leadership close Niger's borders with Mali and Burkina Faso – countries with sympathetic military regimes to those in power in Niger and the possible availability of counter air power instruments?

5. Has Nigeria pondered on a perceived weak Niger Republic entering into wider alliance(s), including with other stronger governments, organized and unorganized terror franchises?

6. Has the Nigerian government carefully reflected on the Nigerien views, popularity, or not of the coup plotters, and the implications of this for any military action?

7. Is Nigeria prepared to lead a process towards a truncated ECOWAS?

8. Is Nigeria acting swiftly to please external interests, without a thoughtful consideration of the all-round implications for ECOWAS, Nigeria, and its people, if a Libya type internationalised war starts next door?
 
Diplomacy is superior to threats of the use of force that may be difficult or impossible to implement. Preventing coups in West Africa, is not by sanctions and threats but by addressing leadership deficit and corruption, curtailing negative external pressures, as well as the building of credible institutions to provide for the needs of the people.
 

The “honeymoon” enjoyed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is over – two months into the life of his administration, which has a lifespan of four years (48 months) in the first instance. While he is yet to fully form his government, Tinubu is already fighting fires on many fronts; his problems, unfortunately, are majorly self-inflicted. His “subsidy is gone” bombshell is one while the floating of the Naira is another, two nagging issues that the president tried to address in his nationwide broadcast last Monday. While only a few misguided elements - the major beneficiaries of the bottomless pit of corruption called fuel subsidy and political partisans still sulking and bellyaching about Tinubu’s emergence as president - will fail to reason with the superior argument for the removal of subsidy as it was operated by the Muhammadu Buhari administration, Tinubu erred in the way he went about the removal. The understanding of Nigerians was that the subsidy had been budgeted for up to the end of June but Tinubu announced its removal in his inauguration speech on May 29th, thereby denying Nigerians the enjoyment of an already-paid-for or already-budgeted-for subsidy of one month. Let him tell us if this is not the case! Was the subsidy not budgeted for up to the end of June 2023? Yes or no?

We have heard that subsidy removal was not even in Tinubu’s prepared inauguration speech but that he veered off course to blurt out the “subsidy is gone” three-word syllable of trouble that threw the whole country, including Tinubu’s die-hard supporters, off balance. Victory, which many were bracing up to celebrate, immediately turned into ashes in the mouth of millions. Mournful! The price of petrol immediately shot through the roof, which the people were not prepared for. But for the fact that Nigeria is not a country where “People Power” is potent, that alone was enough to have driven millions of protesters into the street to shorten Tinubu’s reign. Tinubu himself was not prepared for the consequences of his speech. It was obvious he leaped before he looked; he spoke before putting on his thinking cap and, in so doing, he placed the cart before the horse. The one-month period of grace (June) that Buhari gifted him before subsidy is removed would have enabled him to adequately explain to Nigerians his plans for our comatose refineries, map out strategies to cushion the effects of subsidy removal and arrange the so-called palliatives but, inexplicably, he threw the opportunity away. He was hasty in his approach to a very sensitive issue; perhaps, feeling or sensing that procrastination may give room to influence-peddlers, beneficiaries of padded subsidy payments and political foes to pile pressure on him to keep subsidy going, he reportedly summoned the courage to bell the cat right from Day One. Very well! He must now summon the same courage to face up to the consequences. Newton’s third law of motion says action and reaction are equal and opposite!

Floating of the Naira is the other action of the president that has caused Nigerians a lot of pain; in plain language, the president devalued the Naira by demanding that both the official exchange rate and the black market exchange rate be merged. Allowing market forces an unfettered reign, the black market rate will only climb down for the Naira to appreciate in value when our productive capacity is enhanced; in the absence of that, it is the official foreign exchange rate that will travel upstairs to sojourn with the black market rate, which is why the official market rate has been chasing the black market rate since the float-the-Naira order was given. Like the hike in fuel price, the effect of floating the Naira is felt directly in people’s pockets: While prices are skyrocketing everywhere, the value of the Naira in their pocket depreciates on a daily basis and their income, where they have any, remains the same. This is double or triple whammy! Here again, Tinubu acted hastily. He had not gathered the levers of power in his hand; he had not availed himself of the opportunity of listening to the critical operators in the sectors concerned; and, from what we can see, he had no immediate response to the consequences, intended and or unintended, of his action. Hence, he is fighting fires when prevention would have been better than cure.

Tinubu removed the CBN governor; applause! But now they are having problems prosecuting him! Putting facts and figures together to present foolproof evidence in court if you must have a good case does not come easy; it takes time and a lot of hard and diligent work. It cannot be approached flimsily. An American-styled special investigator has now been named to probe the CBN; perfect! But that should have come first and evidence unearthed would have been handy for speedy and diligent prosecution of whosoever. I have it on good authority, however, that Tinubu may soon embark on unannounced visits to the comatose refineries to see, firsthand, how fast work there is progressing. Great! That will fire the confidence of the people that their president is actually holding the bull by the horns. If Tinubu, like Buhari before him, awards himself the Petroleum ministry portfolio, I will expect him to take a cue from his Chief of Army Staff and lead from the front. He will have to relocate his office and shuttle between Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna where the refineries are located. Getting the refineries functioning again is the greatest task of the moment that will make or mar Tinubu and his government.

Tinubu’s nationwide broadcast is great PR; well done! The president spoke directly to Nigerians over and above the head of Labour leaders preparing for a so-called nationwide strike. Did he take the wind off their sail? Time, as they say, will tell! Do I have confidence in our Labour leaders? No, I don’t! Time and again, they have used us to negotiate for their own selfish ends. Once their pockets are stuffed, they back down and break our heart! They have to find their lost mojo! They must rededicate themselves to the cause of workers! The struggle or death!

I like the way Tinubu begs and pleads with us – unlike what operated under Buhari. Tinubu’s style is more agreeable to me than Buhari’s but when you ask us to persevere and be patient, the question we must ask you is, for how long? And how are we sure you are on the right track of solving our problems? Grandma taught me that when you know for how long you are required to persevere and be patient, it makes the task easier to accomplish. Scripture says expectations that drag before they are fulfilled cause the heart to become weary and despondent. So, tell us how long it will take for us to enter the glorious dawn you talk about; when shall we see the light at the end of the tunnel? Six months? One year? Two years? Tell us!

Again, people are worried that instead of holding the bull by the horns and tackling problems head-on, we run away from them and, in so doing, inflict needless pain on hapless Nigerians. From available evidence, fuel subsidies became untenable and unsustainable because of the massive corruption weaved into it: Round-tripping, smuggling of the product across our borders; falsification of records, etc. If these criminal activities are curtailed – and diligent effort is made to make our refineries work at whatever capacity – the cost of subsidy would not have become as prohibitive as it did.

But here, we run away from problems and the problems, rather than leave us alone, follow us to wherever we bury our head in the sand like the ostrich! So, running away from corruption in the police force, we created the EFCC and others like it but what do we have today? Be it EFCC, ICPC, CCB, CCT, NDIC, the hunter has become the hunted! What we greatly feared, like biblical Job moaned, has come upon us big time. Are our land borders the longest in the world? What about China or America? Everywhere, nations make efforts to secure their borders; China built its famous Great Wall; President Donald Trump mulled the idea of building a wall along the US – Mexico borders but the best Buhari could do was assign God the task of securing Nigeria’s borders! Visit my hometown, Owo, you will still find relics of the walls and moats that my ancestors constructed to secure the ancient town’s borders.

Tinubu’s nationwide broadcast is timely not only because it comes ahead of the threatened nationwide strike by a politically-compromised Labour but because there is silence like that of the graveyard out there right now. Many Nigerians are perplexed and nonplussed at the turn of events. Their pocket –and not necessarily Labour - tells them that all is not well. They cannot see any hope anywhere, not to talk of one that is renewed. Like the biblical Jews of old, Nigerians stand facing their own Red Sea, with Pharaoh and his Egyptian army in hot pursuit. The Israelites murmured against their leader, Moses, just like Nigerians today murmur against Tinubu. Such is the burden of leadership! Suddenly, the Buhari years – which, without doubt, were years of the locusts – appear tempting, just like a return to slavery in Egypt was to the perplexed and distraught Israelites. But should Nigerians contemplate going back to Egypt, as it were? (TO BE CONTINUED).

The crisis that has arisen in the West African community as a result of the overthrow by presidential guards of the civilian government of President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger could provoke an extended regional crisis. If the ECOWAS Commission’s seven-day ultimatum to the military officers is not heeded by them then ECOWAS will be confronted with the need to decide how best to enforce its resolution to reverse the consequences of the coup. In its communique on the issue the Commission has already declared that force could be utilised in order to find a solution. This declaration coming at a time when almost the entire geographic area of West Africa known as the Sahelian region is embroiled in a maelstrom of critical humanitarian disorder means that the circumstances for the restoration of political peace and good governance are clearly not the best. The members of the Commission are faced with a historical dilemma as they confront the emergence of military dissidents in various member countries presenting themselves as the alternative to unpopular or incompetent leaders the credibility of whose elections have often been questioned. As a result, the argument raised by military insurgents in respect of justification for their intervention has been that the population of their countries want change. For this reason, it is imperative that any action embarked upon by ECOWAS should be likely to attract popular support but military action is unlikely to achieve this.

It is an absolute requirement for success in the eventual outcome of the Commission’s resolutions that the decisions taken should reflect the best interests of the citizens of the member countries. In recent years there have been discussions raised in the meetings of the organisation to consider how best to improve the effectiveness of its decisions on the lives of the people. Those who propose this path of action have suggested that ECOWAS should be transformed from a union of leaders to a union of peoples, However the events of recent times appear to indicate that this might be wishful rather than realistic thinking as the problems arising in the domestic political realities of many member nations, especially in the former French colonies in the Sahelian territory appear to reflect popular disenchantment with the corporate credibility of their political authorities. It is therefore important that the sitting leaders of ECOWAS should consider the reality of the situation as they tailor their own corporate response to these realities and that they should acknowledge the fact that the popular will in those countries where the military forces have stepped in is often sympathetic to the insurgent emotions. In realizing this ECOWAS must consider that tolerance might be necessary in order to bring about popular attachment to regional aspirations.

In order to determine the extent to which resolutions of the regional body represent the profound interests of the people it is necessary for the leaders to reflect seriously on the founding principles of the organisation. At the time when the decision was taken to establish the body some of the major founding member nations were led by military leaders, and the sentiment that guided their objective was the wish for unity of purpose in development and harmonious co-existence in post-colonial relationships. Over the decades since then these objectives have been consolidated and developed at differing rates among the member nations. However, in the main Anglophone nations of Nigeria, Ghana, Gambia, Liberia and Sierra Leone as well as in some Francophone countries such as Benin (Dahomey) and Togo military interventions arose as part of the historical process of post-colonial nation building and can be said to have given rise to their extant representative governments. It is imperative that the current leaders should consider the process of nation building as a continuous element of the decolonization process in which they are engaged. If ECOWAS regards this as the core of its mandate, then its duty must be to avoid any action that could escalate military confrontation among its members.

It should instead encourage negotiation among the dominant political forces including the military in each member nation for social transformation of the competing forces into a unified whole. It is therefore advisable that instead of seeking to enforce reinstatement of a compromised civilian leader whenever the spectre of military rule rears its head ECOWAS should position itself as a mediator armed with tactics of both tolerance and determination rather than as an enforcer who is likely to aggravate the original quarrel.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has announced that its planned nationwide protest slated for August 2 (today) would commence at 7:30 am across the federation’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Naija News reports that the planned protest expresses the labour union’s displeasure over what it described as the unfavorable policies of the President Bola Tinubu-led government, especially the removal of fuel subsidy.

The NLC Head of Information, Comrade Benson Upah, told journalists that workers and civil society organisations would converge at the Unity Fountain Abuja to start the protest while the state chapters will equally commence protest at the same time.

Upah disclosed that NLC’s affiliate unions, through their state branches, have mobilised their members and are already for the protest.

He noted that appropriate security agencies have also been notified and are expected to provide security for Nigerians during the protest, adding that the eyes of the international community are on the federal government to see how it genuinely treats its citizens.

“We have consolidated on our arrangement, and the fillers we are getting is that Nigerians are ready to be on the street to express their feelings and outrage over the harsh economic situation in the country,” Upah submitted.

However, the NLC took to its Twitter handle on Tuesday to reiterate its readiness for the street action, saying, “Tomorrow End, Nationwide our voice must be heard. Other posts of the Congress reads, “So there is no plan to revive our refineries or to build a new one? That means the poor would be left to suffocate with a monopolized refinery and ever increasing price of petrol.

“Saved one trillion naira from the two times increase in the price of petrol, which was inflicted on the poor. Nothing was saved from any reduction in the cost of governance and jumbo allowances by politicians.”

Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has directed that students of Kwara origin enrolled in public-owned tertiary institutions receive N10,000 each.

The governor also approved a N10,000 stipend for certain categories of security agents who serve as the first line of defence.

Rafiu Ajakaye, the governor’s chief press secretary, announced this in a statement on Tuesday.

The monetary palliative, according to Ajakaye, will be disbursed through the Kwara State Social Investment Programme (KWASSIP) Office.

The approval for students’ support, described as one-off in its scope, is a departure from the previous bursary award, which covered only final year students of tertiary schools.

The special support will be coordinated by a government committee to be headed by Prof. Shehu Raheem Adaramaja, chairman of the Kwara State Universal Basic Education Board (KWSUBEB). He will be supported by officials from the Ministry of Tertiary Institution, bursary department, Ministry of Finance, and a representative each from the National Association of Kwara State Students (NAKSS) and National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) in Kwara State.

The committee will publish a web link through which all students eligible for state bursary would apply for the support within dates to be announced, filling required information and documents.

President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) have asked the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal (PEPT) to disqualify the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, from re-contesting in any rerun if the February 25th election was annulled.

The legal team of Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima, led by Chief Wole Olanipekun, claimed that Peter Obi is not a member of the labour party and lacks the legal right to challenge the election outcome.

Naija News reports that in their joint petition, Obi and LP alleged that the presidential poll was rigged against him in about 18,088 polling units (totaling over 2.5 million votes) aside from alleged over-voting that took place in parts of the South West. He also alleged that INEC’s failure to upload results to the IREV portal in real time negatively impacted the polls.

But l Olanipekun argued that the Court of Appeal, Lagos division, had ruled against the Labour Party that INEC had the discretion on the mode of collation of the election results.

He added that Peter Obi has no legal right to challenge the election or be included in a rerun because he is not the second runner-up, stressing that Obi was not a member of the Labour Party when he ran for the election and therefore has no legal right to institute the case or be allowed to contest rerun.

On the US Court judgment that ordered Tinubu to forfeit funds suspected to be proceeds of narcotics deals found in his account, Olanipekun noted that the 1999 Constitution states that a conviction has expired after 10 ten years.

On its part, APC lead counsel and ministerial nominee, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), equally adopted all the oral arguments of Olanipekun, saying Obi’s petition, though ambitious, did not dispute that accreditation, voting, and collation of results did not take place.

He said: “If anybody wants to attack any election results, there has to be polling unit by polling unit proof, but this is abysmally lacking in this petition.”

He said the much-touted issue of rerun, as requested (in the alternative) by Obi, should be between Tinubu and the presidential candidate of PDP, Atiku Abubakar.

On their part, the legal representatives of INEC led by Abubakar Mahmoud adopted all his written submissions against Obi’s petition on Tuesday.

He said evidence before the court showed that INEC went to great lengths to ensure the applications used on Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) machine were designed to work perfectly. He contended that the petitioners had contrived in their mind a so-called “electronic collation system” without providing any evidence.

Mahmoud argued that what happened to the BVAS machines on presidential election day was a technical glitch, asking the court to dismiss the petitioner’s case of deliberate human interference.

He said INEC Results Viewing Portal IRev was essentially for public viewing and not for collation of results.

“Petitioners have failed to show how the failure to show real-time impacted on the elections,” Mahmoud said.

Mahmoud contended that the court should discountenance the arguments of so called 18,088 blurred results on IREV.

“Those blurred results that was uploaded on IREV, according to the petitioners, did not in any way suggest that the original copies of the result sheets were blurred,” Mahmoud said.

He added that Obi had not tendered copies from their LP agents to substantiate their case.

“Their blurred results were simply for dramatization. Those arguments of blurred results hold no issue at all,” Mahmoud said.

On getting 25 percent votes in FCT, Mahmoud said the court must not adopt an approach that will result in absurdity.

INEC counsel urged the court to declare that FCT is like every other state, as well as dismiss Obi’s petition.

The Chairman of the Lagos State Parks and Garages (LASPG), Alhaji Musiliu Akinsanya (MC Oluomo), has disclosed that transporters in the state would not be joining the planned protest by the organised labour.

Akinsanya, on Tuesday at a meeting with transport union leaders and operators, said about 50,000 agency members would not be joining Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) planned protest on Wednesday.

Naija News gathered that he said instead, the management of the packs and garage has agreed to reduce ticketing fees issued by the union to drivers by 25 %.

He said commercial bus drivers, motorcycle (okada), and tricycle (Keke Marwa) operators would pay less for bookings at their various parks now, citing that where they hitherto paid N800, they would pay N600 now.

He said passengers would also enjoy the effect of the reduction, noting that routes that used to attract N500 transport fare would now be charged at N300 while commuters previously paying N200 would now pay N150.

He said the directive followed an earlier announcement by the state governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on bus fare reduction.

Akinsanya said a task force had been established to monitor the implementation of the directive and ensure compliance, adding that sanctions would be meted out to defaulters.

The LASPG confirmed that the task force would be led by all members of state executives, parks’ chairmen, and selected union leaders.

He stated that “We, the state executives and the entire members of the Lagos State Parks and Garages met today (Tuesday) in Lagos to review the situation in the country, particularly in Lagos, following the oil subsidy removal by the Federal Government.

“After much deliberations and review, we discussed the high costs of foods, transport fares, and other areas of public interest, in particular, the plan by the organised labour, i.e., the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), to call workers out on a strike.

“After a careful discussion, we concluded that we will not be part of any strike or protest rally being planned to draw the Federal Government’s attention to the issue being debated in the country. All transport families and members will be at work to convey people to their various destinations without problem because the Lagos State government has announced some interventions in the sector.

“The Lagos State government has provided a conducive atmosphere for our operation. There is, therefore, no reason for us to join any strike that may threaten the peace of the state. The various palliative measures taken by the state government, especially the 50 per cent reduction of government public transports and a downward review of our yellow buses fares, will also go a long way in cushioning the effect of the subsidy removal.

“We have also embarked on internal measures like downward reviews of Lagos State government and union tickets. With this, there will be a reduction in transport fares by commercial drivers.

“We at the Lagos State Parks and Garages, therefore, unequivocally say no to any form of strike or protest by the organised labour or any group. All our members are enjoined to go by their normal duties without any fear or intimidation.”

The Delta State Police Command has apprehended the suspect responsible for the tragic killing of a two-year-old boy, Ivan Omhonrina, two weeks ago.

The incident occurred during an operation by officers of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) at Okpanam in the Oshimili North Local Government Area of Delta State. The NDLEA stated that the incident happened while they were raiding a drug joint in the area.

According to the State Police Public Relations Officer, DSP Bright Edafe, the suspect is already in custody. However, the identity of the suspect has not been disclosed.

In a separate development, the command paraded a 22-year-old kidnapper, Ojokor Jeffrey, along with eight others who were involved in terrorizing the Warri, Sapele, and Uvwie areas of the state. Among the items recovered from the suspects were two locally-made double barrel guns and 11 live cartridges.

Furthermore, two individuals who stole a Hilux van belonging to the Ondo State Government, but attached to the Ministry of Lands and Infrastructure, were also paraded. The stolen vehicle was removed from its parking spot in Owo town, Ondo State. The police have recovered the vehicle and the case will be transferred to the Ondo State Police Command.

The recovery of the stolen vehicle was initiated following a distress call received by the command on July 30, 2023, from Ondo State. The vehicle was traced to Patani, where it was intercepted by the police patrol team stationed on the Patani expressway.

The arrested suspects, Tochukwu Nnamani (22) and Chukwuma Unue (38), claimed that the vehicle was handed over to them by one Efe in Ughelli, with instructions to deliver it to one Chief Ojukwu at Mbaima town in River State. The investigation is ongoing to ascertain the complete details of the incident.

At an emergency meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, on 30 July, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) demanded the “immediate release and reinstatement” of Niger’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. He had been held by the military since 19 July.

The regional bloc gave the military in Niger a one-week ultimatum to comply and warned it would take all measures necessary – including force – to restore constitutional order.

On 28 July, the head of Niger’s presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, declared himself head of state after the military seized power.

Beyond warning against any regional and foreign interventions, the military leaders in Niger have given no indications of ways forward.

This coup d’etat will have a significant impact on peace and stability in Niger and the entire Sahel region.

Constant threat of coups

Although Niger has recently enjoyed its longest democratic rule since independence, there has been a constant threat of coups. When Bazoum was elected president in 2021, there was a coup attempt about 48 hours before his inauguration. It failed as presidential guards fought off the coup plotters.

As a political scientist with expertise on international security, conflict analysis and governance in Africa, including knowledge on Niger, I explained then, the coup attempt pointed to deep fissures in the country. It suggested that the military had not fully embraced democracy.

The current coup plotters have blamed rising insecurity and a lack of economic growth. They stated that the intervention was necessary to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of the country. I believe, however, there are other issues that precipitated the latest coup d’etat. These are: ethnicity; the presence of foreign forces; and the weakness of regional bodies.

Factors that led to the coup

There are no doubts that the rise in insecurity and declining economic prospects contributed to fragility in the country.

Despite the increase in foreign forces, especially from the US and France, and military bases in Niger, the leadership has been unable to stop insurgent attacks. There are several insurgent groups, such as Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, as well as Boko Haram operating in the country.

These attacks have resulted in thousands of deaths and displacements in the last decade. Hundreds of youths in the capital, Niamey, gathered to celebrate the July coup, waving Russian flags and chanting “Wagner”. This suggests that some people in Niger believe the military, supported by Russia and the private military contractor, Wagner group, would do a better job of fighting insurgents.

In addition to insecurity and economic stagnation, three other issues help explain the recent coup d’etat.

First, the debate over the ethnicity and legitimacy of Bazoum was an issue during the last election campaign. Bazoum is from Niger’s ethnic Arab minority and has always been labelled as having foreign origins.

This did not sit well within the military circle, which is predominantly composed of the larger ethnic groups – even though Bazoum got about 56% of the vote and is from the same party as former president Mahamadou Issoufou.

There is a lot of emphasis on ethnic military composition in the country; understanding this helped Issoufou complete two terms as president. Appointments in the military are made along ethnic lines.

Foreign military bases 

Second, the large number of foreign military troops and bases in the country has not been well received by the military. They believe this undermines them. Niger is a key ally of western countries in the fight against insurgency in the region. France’s huge investments in Niger’s mining sector are another reason for its interest in security.

In 2019, the US opened a drone base in Niger despite protests. As I have pointed out before, the drone base could make Niger a target for terrorists and increase instability.

In 2022, France and other European allies withdrew their forces from neighbouring Mali. Bazoum was quick to invite them to Niger. The Nigerien military leadership and some influential individuals in the country denounced the increase in foreign forces.

Third, I suggest the failure of regional organisations such as ECOWAS and the African Union to take a firm stance against military power seizures in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali emboldened the Nigerien military. ECOWAS leaders have now threathened to use force to restore Bazoum if the coup plotters do not reinstate him.

In the last four years, there have been seven coup d’etats in the region. Three were successful. Leaders of ECOWAS and the African Union have threatened sanctions on these three countries, but nothing much has been done to deter other opportunistic military leaders.

In a round table organised by the think tank Chatham House London on the impact of military intervention in west Africa, one of the leaders from the region stated that they kept avenues of communication open with the three military presidents as a courtesy. This creates an impression that there is no deterrence for military takeovers.

Implications for Niger and the region

The latest coup d’etat has severe consequences for Niger and the entire Sahel region. Niger is a strong ally of western nations, especially France, the US and the European Union in fighting insurgency and curbing illegal migration to Europe.

Efforts to address these issues will be affected. And the new military leaders will want to use these issues as leverage in negotiations and to force acceptance of the new regime.

The new leaders in Niger might also engage with the Wagner group to combat the Islamist insurgency. The leader of the group has already praised them for seizing power. The influence of Russia and Wagner in the region could grow.

Yet Wagner has been unable to halt terrorist advancement in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Finally, a successful military takeover in Niger would be a major drawback for democracy in the region and Africa as a whole. The military regimes of Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso already plan to form a “military alliance”, supposedly to combat insecurity.

African leaders need to do more to prove that they are working for the masses.