Data from Polymarket shows that traders see almost no chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by March 31, with the probability sitting at less than one percent.

The most popular bet suggests Bitcoin will remain below $75,000, with nearly 30% of traders backing that outcome. Even a move to $100,000 is seen as unlikely, with only a ten percent chance assigned to that level.

Bitcoin’s consolidation phase

Despite the bearish outlook from Polymarket traders, macro investor Dan Tapiero remains optimistic. Speaking on TheStreet Roundtable with Scott Melker, he said Bitcoin’s recent price action is unfolding exactly as expected.

“I think we’re going to chop up back and forth between $70,000 and $100,000 to digest all this news, and at some point, we’re going to head back up,” Tapiero said. “I’ve had this $180,000 target in mind for a while.”

He believes that the current consolidation phase is healthy for Bitcoin’s long-term growth and that the next major move will push the price toward $180,000, possibly by the end of the year.

While traders on Polymarket remain cautious, Tapiero sees no reason for concern. He pointed out that Bitcoin is still up significantly from 18 months ago, and market cycles take time to play out.

Bitcoin’s current market activity

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $83,234, up 1% in the past 24 hours. The broader crypto market is also seeing gains, with Ethereum rising 1% to $1,900, and Solana climbing 5% to $132. BNB coin is up 2.47% at $594.06, while Dogecoin has gained 2% to $0.173.

Despite these price movements, overall trading volumes have been declining. February saw a sharp 20% drop in trading activity across centralized exchanges, falling to a four-month low of $7.2 trillion. The decline was largely attributed to macroeconomic concerns, including international trade tensions and tariff threats from the Trump administration.

[The Street]