From the off-season elections in Edo and Ondo states to the Supreme Court judgement on local government autonomy, 2024 was full of political events. Many of them are expected to have long-term effects, potentially shaping the politics of 2027.

In this piece, PREMIUM TIMES reviews some of the major political events of the past 12 months and their implications for Nigerian politics.

1. The endless PDP crisis

This marks the third consecutive year of crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The turmoil, which began as a fallout of the presidential primary election in May 2022, shows no signs of abating.

The main opposition party remains factionalised: the Atiku Abubakar faction, the G5 group led by Nyesom Wike, and the Bala Mohammed-led group. Throughout 2024, these factions engaged in turf wars often fought through proxies. Within the PDP Governors Forum, the infighting was intense. The National Assembly PDP caucus was similarly divided along these lines, while the National Working Committee (NWC) completed the triad of conflict.

In 2024, the factions vied for control of the NWC, led by Umar Damagum, who is believed to be loyal to Mr Wike.

A coalition of anti-Damagum forces made frantic efforts to unseat him, but the move ultimately failed. In October, the party witnessed a series of “suspension and counter suspension.” However, the impasse eventually led to a political compromise, leaving the crisis unresolved.

If current indications are anything to go by, the ongoing crisis in the PDP is likely to extend beyond 2025.

2. Change of National Anthem

No political pundit foresaw the change of the National Anthem. In May, the National Assembly, without adequate public consultation, replaced “Arise, O Compatriots” with the old anthem, “Nigeria, We Hail Thee”

The urgency of the change prompted questions about its intention and relevance to pressing national issues, such as the skyrocketing prices of food. However, it is widely believed that President Tinubu has a personal fondness for the old anthem and seized the opportunity to reinstate it.

Critics have resisted the change, with many refusing to sing it. It would not be surprising if a future administration reverts to the now-defunct anthem, adding yet another chapter to the “politics of the anthem.”

3. Labour Party Crisis and speculation over Atiku/Obi alliance

The Labour Party (LP) entered another phase of crisis in 2024, this time involving the Julius Abure-led NWC and a faction loyal to Peter Obi. Mr Obi’s 2022 defection to the party elevated it to national prominence, but internal strife has since become a daily occurrence.

In March, Mr Abure sought to consolidate his position by holding a convention in Anambra State. However, Mr Obi’s allies, including Governor Alex Otti, boycotted the event. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), a key stakeholder, also dismissed it as illegal.

In response, Mr Otti, backed by the NLC and Mr Obi, organised a counter convention, removing Mr Abure and appointing former finance minister Nenadi Usman as chair of a caretaker committee. However, a court later affirmed Mr Abure as the legitimate chairman.

Although Mr Abure appears to have won this round, he has since hinted that Mr Obi’s 2027 presidential ticket is not guaranteed. Without Mr Obi’s popularity, however, the party’s prospects remain uncertain.

Meanwhile, the LP performed poorly in off-cycle elections this year and continues to lose lawmakers to the ruling APC. Seven National Assembly members defected to the APC in 2024 alone.

A recent meeting between Messrs Obi and Atiku has fuelled speculation about a potential alliance, reminiscent of their ticket against Muhammadu Buhari in 2019.

4. Off-Cycle Elections: APC gains Edo, retains Ondo

The Edo and Ondo elections provided INEC with another opportunity to fine-tune its processes ahead of the 2027 general elections. Both contests were marred by vote-buying and allegations of rigging.

However, observers praised INEC’s handling of the Ondo election, describing it as fairer compared to Edo. The incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the APC, won the Ondo election.

In Edo, internal wrangling within the PDP and LP undermined their chances. PDP’s incumbency factor offered little advantage due to divisions, while LP’s decision to bypass power rotation to Edo Central alienated key stakeholders.

APC capitalised on these weaknesses, with Monday Okpebholo emerging victorious. This win marked a significant gain for the APC in the South-south, where it now governs Cross River and Edo.

5. Governors Bello, Obaseki out, Ododo, Okpebholo in

The Kogi State governor, Yahaya Bello, and his Edo State counterpart, Godwin Obaseki, left office having completed their tenures.

Mr Bello handed over to Usman Ododo in January, about three months after the off-cycle governorship election was held in the state.

6. Rejigging Tinubu’s cabinet: bringing Daniel Bwala Onboard

In October, President Tinubu made major adjustments to his cabinet. Five ministers were dismissed, seven new ones were appointed, and 10 were reassigned.

Notable dismissals included Uju-Ken Ohanenye, who had a controversial tenure as minister of women’s affairs, and Tahir Mamman, who was removed as minister of education.

The merger of the ministry of sports with culture and tourism, alongside the creation of the ministry of livestock, was also praised.

A surprise appointment was Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, as well as Daniel Bwala, who left the APC in 2022 over its Muslim-Muslim ticket and later served as a spokesperson for Atiku’s campaign. Mr Bwaka was appointed to the presidential media team.

7. Supreme Court judgement on local government autonomy/LG polls

A landmark Supreme Court judgement in 2024 guaranteed financial autonomy for local governments and abolished caretaker committees. Following initial protests, over 30 states hurriedly conducted local government elections to comply with the judgement.

Governors have since sought to dilute the ruling’s impact, with Anambra State enacting laws to claim a portion of local government funds.

8. Opposition to Tax Bills

President Tinubu’s proposed tax reform bills have faced strong opposition, particularly from the North.

The Northern Governors’ Forum and traditional rulers expressed concerns over the bills’ implications, including changes to the VAT sharing formula. Despite the National Economic Council’s call for the bills’ withdrawal, the president remained resolute.

The bills remain stalled in both chambers of the National Assembly, but their fiscal provisions are expected to shape the 2025 budget.

As with many issues in 2024, the battle over tax reform is likely to spill into the new year.

9. Yahaya Bello: The hunted white lion

Yahaya Bello, the former governor of Kogi State, became a governor under very extraordinary circumstances.

Mr Bello, a flamboyant politician and self-christened White Lion, was initially the symbol of youth inclusion in governance but his government’s non-payment of salaries and alleged use of violence during elections turned people against him.

He also faced accusations of financial mismanagement, leading to his recent ordeal with the anti-graft agencies.

For months, Mr Bello played cat and mouse with the EFCC in his N110 billion corruption trial and it is expected to extend to the new year. He eventually surrendered himself and was detained at the Kiuje prison until he perfected a bail granted him by the court.

10. INEC releases report on 2023 polls

INEC released a report on the 2023 General Elections, which highlighted some of the reforms the commission is undertaking.

Key items requiring legislative action include the unbundling of INEC through the establishment of an electoral offences tribunal and a separate agency to handle the registration and regulation of political parties.

Additionally, there is a need for legal clarity regarding the “manual transfer versus electronic transmission of results.”

Electronic transmission of results dominated the last electoral amendment.

Other proposed reforms include introducing early or special voting for officials on election duty and phasing out Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) as the sole means of accreditation for voting.

Projections for 2025

1. Mahmood Yakubu’s exit and appointment of a new INEC chairman

The Chairman of INEC, Mahmood Yakubu, will complete his tenure in October 2025.

Mr Yakubu was initially appointed in 2015 by former President Muhammadu Buhari and reappointed for a second term in 2020.

Whoever replaces Mr Yakubu is likely to generate political controversy, especially considering the current administration’s recent appointment of partisan political figures as resident electoral commissioners.

2. Tax bills conundrum may rage

The tax reform bills are expected to dominate political conversations in the new year. The discourse over the bills has become highly tense and emotional, particularly in the House of Representatives.

There is speculation that the bills may be passed alongside the 2025 budget in January. Whatever the case may be, these bills are highly political and are likely to dominate political activities.

3. Constitutional Review/Electoral Act amendment

Any major changes to the Constitution or Electoral Act must be concluded in 2025, as politicking for the general elections will begin in 2026. If past experiences are anything to go by, such changes become nearly impossible during the political season.

The National Assembly is expected to conclude its work on constitutional amendments in 2025, while the Committees on Electoral Matters in the House and the Senate have set a target of June 2025 for the passage of amendments to the Electoral Act.

4. Anambra governorship election

The off-cycle elections in November 2025 will also be a significant event, as Governor Charles Soludo will be seeking a second term in office.

What makes this election noteworthy is that Anambra State is the home of Mr Obi. This election will serve as a litmus test for Mr Obi and the Labour Party.

Many supporters of Mr Obi may see the November election as an opportunity to payback Mr Soludo, for his statement in 2022 where he described Mr Obi’s supporters as a “mob with no head.”

During the general elections, Mr Obi’s LP won the presidential election in the state and grabbed some National Assembly seats. However, the party performed poorly in the House of Assembly elections.

The governorship election in 2025 may be the real litmus test for the party, that is if the internal crisis in the party will allow them do do so.

5. Crisis in LP and PDP may not abate

There is currently no indication that the ongoing crises in the PDP and LP will end anytime soon.

The crises within these parties are expected to persist into the coming year.

The year 2025 is expected to be a defining moment for the PDP as the party prepares to conduct a National Convention to elect new officials who will lead it.

Throughout the third and fourth quarters of 2024, the party made several attempts to hold a National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, which has now been scheduled for February.

With the tenure of the acting national chairman Umar Damagum set to end by late 2025, a national convention appears inevitable.

6. INEC’S electoral process reforms

The year 2025 will be a pivotal one for INEC in terms of reforms and preparations for the 2027 general elections.

Earlier in 2024, the commission’s chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, hinted that it is aiming for significant reforms, many of which will require legislative backing.

[PremiumTimes]