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The naira faces more headwinds as the safe-haven currency rallied strongly amid rising odds of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.

The naira settled at N1,664.91/$ in the NAFEX market, while in the black market, the local currency lingered near the N1,730 support line.

Although the U.S. elections were still too close to call, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the British pound in London due to speculators betting on Republican Donald Trump as the winner.

 
  • Trump got a head start over Kamala Harris, with both candidates backed by pro-Republican factions. Key battleground races in states, where elites were expected to secure victories, became increasingly decisive.
  • Markets now expect Donald Trump to narrowly beat Kamala Harris in a tight U.S. presidential contest. As a result, the dollar reached its highest value since July.
  • The dollar, which had fallen to a two-week low against a basket of currencies earlier in the day, surged to record its highest level since April 14, 2005. The triumph and aftermath of the U.S. presidential election heightened investor fears and quickly spread throughout markets.

Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence and his potential influence on its policies could affect U.S. interest rates. Lower U.S. rates might keep the dollar weaker than expected, which could ease pressure on the naira. However, if his policies lead to higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation, this could strengthen the dollar and put the Nigerian currency at a disadvantage.

A president advocating for stronger trade tariffs or protectionist policies, such as those proposed by Donald Trump, could lead to a stronger dollar, further pressuring the naira. If the U.S. implements tariffs that affect global trade—particularly with countries like China—this could trigger an economic recalibration, potentially strengthening the dollar against other currencies, including the naira.

Trump’s approach to international relations, especially concerning conflicts or trade disputes, could either create or alleviate geopolitical tensions. Whether the global environment stabilizes or remains volatile will affect investor confidence in emerging markets, impacting the naira’s value.

Elevated appetite for risk amid higher odds of Trump’s Presidency

Bitcoin soared past $75K, reaching its highest-ever level, driven by the sentiment that former President Trump would ease cryptocurrency regulations if he won the election.

  • U.S. markets are expected to react sharply to the election results, with investors adopting a cautious approach. U.S. stocks recorded their highest gains in six weeks during Tuesday’s trading session.
  • Currency traders are also concerned about market uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s interest rate-setting decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
  • The VIX index, which serves as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reached a high of 23.4 late last week before dropping to around 20.5. Tuesday’s robust equity market returns likely contributed to the drop in anticipated short-term volatility.

Price activity suggests that naira short-sellers are firmly in control of the N1,650 support line in the unofficial black market. Given the growing demand for foreign currency—primarily for travel, gasoline imports, and tuition payments abroad—additional selling pressure is expected.

[Nairametrics]

Former President Donald Trump has been projected to secure a second term in the White House, a historic comeback nearly four years after departing under legal and political uncertainty.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) called the election for Trump after he clinched Pennsylvania and Alaska, bringing him to the necessary 270 electoral votes.

 

The win comes in a contentious race against Vice President Kamala Harris, amid a series of unforeseen events: Trump faced a criminal trial during the campaign, endured two assassination attempts, and witnessed a late reshuffle atop the Democratic ticket following President Biden’s decision to step down.

This victory makes Trump the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to reclaim the White House after an electoral defeat.

His path to victory included flipping key states like Georgia and solidifying his hold on North Carolina, with battleground polling remaining razor-thin until Election Day. Trump also made gains in the popular vote, a feat Republicans have achieved only once since 1992.

Campaigning with Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, Trump seized on widespread concerns over rising costs, border security, and global unrest to rally voters around a return to his policies.

Exit polls highlighted a strong turnout among Latino voters, increased rural support, and near parity with Harris among young men, a demographic his campaign had aggressively targeted.

Trump’s agenda signals a hardline approach: he has pledged sweeping immigration enforcement, extending his 2017 tax cuts, enacting universal tariffs, rolling back transgender protections, and dismantling the Department of Education.

In addition, Trump has committed to assembling an administration loyal to his vision.

Despite a traditionally difficult path with female voters, Trump was able to offset potential losses on the issue of abortion, which became a central theme following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Harris highlighted this issue throughout her campaign, but it ultimately did not sway enough voters to her side.

Trump’s victory could shift the Supreme Court further to the right, as Republicans regained Senate control.

Having narrowly won the presidency in 2016 and lost in 2020, Trump’s return caps a period marked by his vehement, yet unproven, assertions of electoral fraud.

The 2023 federal indictment over his post-2020 actions remains ongoing, but Trump has indicated his intent to dismiss Special Counsel Jack Smith, potentially hindering ongoing investigations.

 
[NaijaNews]

The  foregoing is far from being a rhetorical question.

To be  sure, it would be important to know if teams of election observers from Nigeria and other African countries have left for the United States to monitor  the do-or die American elections.

After all, if American  civil society organisations  could sponsor the observer teams to monitor Nigerian elections, it should not be beyond contemplation that the American elections should be monitored by Nigerian observers too. 

To think otherwise would be nothing but inferiority complex and sheer Afropessimism in appreciating the dialectics of democratic development. 

Last year, the  reports of western  observers of the Nigerian elections were branded as the most authoritative on the emergent issues from the polls. The verdict on the results of the election by western observers  were deemed supreme.  Editors, columnists, bloggers, television and radio anchors as well as  other public intellectuals  quoted profusely  the reports of the foreign observers as they pummelled the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). Meanwhile, hardly was notice taken of the fact that the  Nigerian Bar Association also put up teams to monitor the election and issued reports.

Election monitoring is said to be in three broad stages – pre-election; during the election and post-election. Beyond monitoring, psephologists (theorists of elections) would find ample materials for study in the American presidential election, which some commentators have described as the election like no other!  

Doubtless, election observers already have their job well cut out for them as America decides on its future at the polls.

There is indeed a lot to monitor in the elections. What with the fact of the strange news from America in the last few months, the campaigns have been defined by what the most charitable observers would call un-American manifestations. Before yesterday’s final day of voting, fears have been rife that America may be heading towards an inconclusive election, a development often associated with nascent liberal democracies.  There have been reports of violence in words and action. Security men  have been put on red alert. Former President Donald Trump, the  candidate of the Republican Party,  has escaped two assassination attempts on the hustings. The candidate himself has threatened bloodshed  in the event that  he loses the election. On one occasion he said this would be the “last election” should he not be declared as the winner. Even before the first ballot was cast, Trump and his supporters had begun to question the integrity of the election. Ballots of the early voting have been reportedly burnt.  Only a few days ago, Trump said at a rally that he wouldn’t mind if journalists covering his campaigns were shot because they “are fake news” purveyors. On another occasion he wished nine guns were pointed on the head of Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman, who has endorsed  Vice President Kamala Harris the candidate of the Democratic Party. More ominously, Trump said at the eve of the  election that he regretted leaving the White House after losing the 2020 election.

In the light of the foregoing, it would not be an extravagant claim to propose that Nigeria’s democracy  has indeed  grown enough to be in position to critically observe what is going on in America.

This was the point eloquently  made yesterday  by  the director-general of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) and an eminent scholar, Professor Eghosa Osagie, in his introductory remarks at a roundtable hosted by the  foreign policy  think-tank. As Osagie rightly put it, Nigeria should keenly observe the American election from the viewpoint of democratic development.  Later, Osagie, a political scientist, summed up the points  by saying that whatever the outcome of the election,  while America might not change it would be  the responsibility of Nigeria to devise its policies in relating to America.

The vigorous discussions at the roundtable  was brilliantly  moderated with a lot of insights  by Amarachi Ubani of CHANNELS Television. Interestingly, as Amarachi, a member of the Institute,  expertly teased out perspectives of speakers, it became clear that there were pro-Harris, pro-Trump and the neutrals on the forum.

In some respects, the  roundtable was akin to a team of observers monitoring  the American election, albeit from a distance of  8, 719 kilometres away.

For instance, a public policy analyst and development strategist, Mr. Magnus Onyibe, who has met Trump, excitingly  articulated the case for the  Republican presidential candidate. Onyibe presented Trump at the august forum as the “change” America needs and a “non-traditional politician” who would  “ drain Washington.” Onyibe, an author,  said “Trump is not anti-immigration; but he is anti-illegal immigration.” He recalled that Nigeria once expelled “illegal Ghanaian  immigrants.” while South Africans are also hostile to “illegal Nigerian immigrants.”  For Onyibe,  Trump remains essentially a businessman in his approach to politics. Onyibe said “Trump knows Nigeria,”   recalling that the former American president talked about the Nigerian oil reserves when they met in the U.S. And, of course, Onyibe reminded his audience that “Trump’s daughter is married to a naturalised Nigerian.” So Trump  is, after all, an  in-law, as it would be put in the Nigerian parlance !

In a way, Onyibe, was responding to other distinguished speakers, who had earlier made weighty submissions.

While acknowledging the importance of the American election for reflection in Nigeria,  veteran political scientist, Professor Adele Jinadu, situated the emergence of Trumpism in American politics within the context of the “perpetual crisis of democracy” and the “upsurge of populism’ in some liberal democracies. He warned against personalising  the trends in the politics of the most powerful country as “contending social forces” are actually  at play. Jinadu also underlined the institutional resilience which has ensured a “pushback” to some of the absurdities of Trump and Trumpists. Jinadu pointed to  the institutions sustaining the American institutions despite the Trumpist assaults. He described these institutions as “guardrails” that would prevent the system from collapsing. The social scientist, who has remarkably intellectualised the process of election monitoring in Nigeria, also emphasised the importance of “character in politics” and the need “to look beyond elections and hold elected leaders accountable” at the end.  He also demystified  election polls, insisting that they could sometimes go  wrong. According to Jinadu, the respondent only tells the pollster what he would do on election day. This might eventually not be the case.

For another notable political scientist, Professor Femi Otubanjo, “Trump will not be good for Nigeria;  but it is not  sure if Harris will be great for Nigeria either.” He rated the American election managers  highly; but he said that “ the problem will be the electoral college.”  While Otubanjo  decried the “isolationism” of Trump, he conceded that Harris could be “more institutionally minded.”   Otubanjo made it clear: “Trump will be dangerous to the world.” The scholar  is not, however, excited about a democrat being in the White House. He recalled  that while former President Barack Obama, a democrat,  did not permit the sale of Tucano aircraft to the government of President Goodluck Jonathan to fight terrorism, it was Trump that later made the sale of arms to Nigeria possible. Remarkably, when discussions drifted to the perennial question of Nigeria’s bid for a permanent on the Security Council of the United Nations, Otubanjo dismissed such efforts as “fighting for nonsense.”  Instead, he advocated the scrapping of the Security Council itself to enable the genuine democratisation of the United Nations. This, he said, would upend  the present anti-democratic oddity in which one nation can veto the decision of all the other members of the world body.  

The focus should be on “domestic policies,”  according to Dr. Reuben Abati, the celebrated anchor of ARISE NEWS Television. Abati  says Nigeria would have to do its work in order to “hold its head within the international space.” He asked : “Do Nigerian Trump supporters truly know Trump”? He, of course, acknowledged that a second term for Trump in the White House would have consequences for immigration, energy sector, the value of the Dollar and, of course, geo-political stability.

A lawyer and author, Mr. Femi Ojomu, said with the American election, “the world faces a crossroads.” He reminded the forum that “Nigeria is a non-aligned nation.”  For him, the challenge “is taking advantage of  the opportunities” available  in the Nigeria-American relations regardless of “who emerges  as American president.”  He pointed to areas of security, African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), immigration, social rights  etc.  Ojomu made a clear distinction between the agendas of Harris and Trump.

For this reporter, the expectations from the outcome of an American presidential election should be tempered by a historical reality. Harris and Trump represent the two sides of the same face of American imperialism to the world. If you doubt it,  ask the helpless victims of the ongoing  crimes against humanity in Gaza in which America is openly complicit. The difference is that Harris could  be a pretentious imperialist while Trump would be barefaced dismantling the post – second world war order, which America led other imperial  powers to build.  .

Unlike the pretentious Democrats, Trump wants  ethnic cleansing of Gaza so that it would become a “beautiful beach front.”

The government, in which Harris is the Vice President,  has been spending billions of dollars to arm Netanyahu to kill children, women, UN workers, journalists and health workers for over a year. The position of Harris during the campaigns has been kaleidoscopic  depending on the audience. Harris said she would stand by Israel to exercise its right of self-defence (a refrain of successive American administration for decades) in Pennsylvania with a significant Jewish population. She only spoke of a ceasefire and  relief for Palestinians  in Michigan while facing a huge population of   Arab voters.

As experts ponder the implications of the seeming  degeneration of the America’s  political system, it is noteworthy that one of America’s best thinkers on liberal democracy, Francis Fukuyama, seemed to have foreseen Trumpism and other American tragedies.  In 2014, one of Fukuyama’s books, “Political Order and Political Decay” was published.  That was two years  before the election  of Trump in 2016.

In the book Fukuyama wrote inter alia: “No one living in an established liberal democracy should therefore be complacent about the inevitability of its survival. There is no automatic historical mechanism that makes progress inevitable, or that prevents decay or backsliding. Democracies exist and  survive only because people want and are willing to fight for them; leadership, organisational ability, and oftentimes, sheer good luck are needed for them to prevail…”  

Despite the  ugly face  of American politics on display during the campaigns, some Nigerian public intellectuals are wont to fall back to the  default position in  analysing the elections in America. As Dr. Abati puts it, the next few days the media space would be replete with essays on the “lessons to learn from the American elections.”

It might  be unthinkable in not a few quarters that America could  indeed have lessons to learn from Nigeria’s democratic development.

Two contrasting events  in the political histories of  United States and Nigeria could be recalled to make this point. In the cool evening of  March 31, 2015, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  called to congratulate  General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) while collation of the results was still in progress. Before Jonathan’s historic call, the nation was on a  knife edge as it awaited  the conclusion of the presidential election that year.

Contrast the Nigerian positive story  with the American tragedy  of  January 6, 2020. President Donald Trump inspired a mob to stymie the conclusion of the presidential election which he clearly lost as an  incumbent. The Trumpist thugs invaded the Capitol, America’s citadel of liberal democracy, in an abortive attempt to prevent the certification of the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States. In the process six persons died and at least 170 police officers were injured. No, it is not every time Nigeria has lessons to learn from America in democratic development. At least on this occasion, it is important to transcend the national pastime of  self-flagellation in order to see that America has huge lessons to learn from Nigeria.

In fact, in the next few hours both Harris and Trump have some lessons to learn from Jonathan of Nigeria, an under-celebrated hero of  liberal democracy. 

You never know, the  crucial lessons could help in saving America from itself as chaos is widely  predicted for the superpower.  

QUOTE

“In fact, in the next few hours both Harris and Trump have some lessons to learn from Jonathan of Nigeria. You never know, the crucial lessons could help in saving America from itself as chaos is widely  predicted for the superpower”

Wednesday, 06 November 2024 07:46

Valencia Floods: La Liga Seeks Game Rescheduling

LaLiga have requested Valencia and Levante’s matches this weekend be postponed as recovery efforts continue in the region following deadly flooding which has left at least 218 people dead.

Valencia are due to travel to Espanyol on Saturday in LaLiga, while Levante, who are also based in Valencia, are scheduled to play away against Tenerife in the second division on Sunday.

On Tuesday, both clubs requested the matches be rearranged for a later date, with LaLiga forwarding the request on to the Royal Spanish Football Federation [RFEF], who will have the final say.

“Just one week has passed since the catastrophe occurred and the situation remains very serious,” Valencia and Levante said in a joint statement.

“Both clubs are grateful for the understanding and empathy shown by LaLiga, the RFEF and our opponents.

“We remain firmly committed to continue helping all the affected areas in the province of Valencia.”

 

Flood waters swept through the Valencia region after heavy rainfall on Oct. 29, with the full scale of the loss of life and damage to homes, businesses and transport links becoming apparent in the following days.

As a result, five Copa del Rey games were immediately postponed last week and rescheduled for later in November.

Five games were also called off across the top two tiers of Spanish football over the weekend, including Real Madrid’s trip to Valencia, Villarreal’s match with Rayo Vallecano and Levante’s fixture against Malaga.

In Liga F, Valencia and Levante’s games were both off at the weekend and the RFEF announced earlier on Tuesday that Sunday’s derby between the two sides has also been postponed.

[Leadership]

The internal turmoil within the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in Kano State is escalating as longstanding members of the Kwankwasiyya Movement push back against Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s hold over party leadership.

The rebellion marks the most significant challenge yet to Kwankwaso’s authority, with members demanding more independence for the state governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf.

This crisis unfolded shortly after Abdullahi Baffa Bichi, Secretary to the State Government, and Muhammad Diggol, Commissioner for Transport, were suspended by party leaders on allegations of involvement in a splinter group promoting Yusuf’s autonomy from Kwankwaso’s influence.

Bichi’s suspension underscored the party’s fraying internal alliances, with members loyal to Yusuf increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction.

Garzali Musa Muhammad, known as Garzali Obasanjo, has been leading a campaign for Yusuf’s independence. He said the campaign is gaining momentum among party loyalists.

“We are the foot soldiers who fought for Kwankwasiyya, but it’s time we stop being slaves to one man,” he argued, adding that Yusuf deserves to lead freely.

But while the state government publicly moved to quell the unrest, two NNPP House of Representatives members from Kano, Aliyu Sani Madakin Gini (Dala) and Alhassan Rurum (Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure), publicly distanced themselves from Kwankwaso and the movement on Sunday, signalling a wider stretch of the dissatisfaction.

This significant dissent follows Governor Yusuf’s alleged refusal to attend meetings with Kwankwaso and to take his calls, a development reported by an online publication.

The revolt among some NNPP members is partly rooted in what insiders describe as Kwankwaso’s tight control over the governor. Supporters of Yusuf argue that for the state government to function effectively, the governor must be free from Kwankwaso’s shadow.

Madakin Gini, who has been a loyal Kwankwasiyya foot soldier, criticised the lack of respect for long-term supporters, stating that, “Kwankwaso disregards loyalists, only seeking them out when he’s in trouble.”

He also expressed concern that the governor was under pressure within the movement.

“My message to the governor is clear. They are trying to weaken him. I am urging him to stand firm; otherwise, he may be blindsided by those around him. I have insights into plans against him,” he said.

But on Tuesday, the party’s executives in Yalwa Ward, Dala Local Government, announced the suspension of Madakin Gini.

According to a statement by the Ward Chairman, Aminu Inuwa Habib, the decision was reached unanimously by party executives, who have established a disciplinary committee to determine further action.

In response, Aminu Abdullahi, an aide to Madakin Gini, dismissed the suspension, claiming the lawmaker aligns with the NNPP faction led by the party’s Board of Trustees’ Chairman, Chief Boniface Aniebonam.

Claims of APC interference

But some leaders of the Kwankwasiyya Movement and others have been blaming the All Progressives Congress (APC) for fuelling the discord in the NNPP.

Yahaya Umar Bagobiri, an associate of Kwankwaso, claimed that the APC, wary of the NNPP’s strength, has taken deliberate steps to create rifts within opposition parties ahead of the next general elections.

“It’s the handwork of the APC,” Bagobiri, who remained in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) after Kwankwaso’s exit, insisted. He suggested that APC operatives have sought to weaken the NNPP and other major opposition groups.

He contended that this was part of a larger plan by the APC to ensure voters are left with weakened choices come election time.

Bagobiri also pointed to the legal challenges surrounding the NNPP’s rebranding, including a recent court ruling that prevented changes to the party’s logo.

“Kwankwaso tried to change the logo to one with a book and a pen. This could backfire if the court invalidates NNPP candidates’ positions due to these branding issues,” he warned.

State Assembly leadership denies crack

Amid these accusations and internal discord, the Kano State House of Assembly has firmly denied any factionalism within the NNPP.

Lawan Husseini, the House Majority Leader, dismissed reports of a split, describing them as “fabricated stories by the opposition.” He accused opposition members of attempting to sow discord to distract Governor Yusuf from his duties.

“We, honourable members, are fully loyal to Sen. Kwankwaso and Governor Yusuf,” Husseini emphasised, insisting that the bond between Kwankwaso and Yusuf remains intact.

Salisu Yahaya Hotoro, a senior special adviser to Governor Yusuf, echoed this stance, dismissing any notion of a fallout between Yusuf and Kwankwaso.

“Any assertions of a rift are exaggerated,” he stated, highlighting the respectful working relationship between the two leaders. Hotoro reassured the public that Governor Yusuf remains committed to the ideals of the NNPP and urged restraint in circulating unverified claims that could destabilise the party.

Ibrahim S. Adam, a personal assistant to Kwankwaso, also denied reports of discord, citing recent joint appearances of the two leaders. He noted that Yusuf attended Kwankwaso’s birthday celebration and other recent events, evidence, he claimed, of their ongoing collaboration.

“This propaganda is the work of the APC in Kano, unhappy with Governor Yusuf’s accomplishments,” Adam contended.

The APC, however, brushed aside accusations of interference.

Ahmad Aruwa, the APC spokesman in Kano, asserted that the NNPP’s issues are its own to handle.

“The NNPP should focus on governing Kano instead of blaming the APC. We don’t have time for these distractions; they need to address their own problems,” he said.

Divergent views on Kwankwasiyya’s future

Nevertheless, divisions persist within the NNPP, with some members continuing to challenge Kwankwaso’s dominance.

Garzali Obasanjo vowed to keep pushing for Yusuf’s independence, stating, “The movement’s call is manifesting. Kwankwaso must realise his errors and let Abba govern as the people elected him to do.”

He suggested that Governor Yusuf’s success depends on him breaking away from Kwankwaso’s control and standing on his own.

We’re worried but working to address issues – NNPP chairman

The NNPP chairman in Kano, Hashim Sulaiman Dungurawa, acknowledged the internal tensions, attributing them to communication issues within the party.

“This situation shows the party’s strength,” he remarked, adding that the NNPP is “growing stronger despite grievances.”

Dungurawa revealed that the party leadership had taken steps to address the divisions, including organising a meeting to reconcile key members—Madakin Gini and Rurum—with the party.

“We have arranged to meet and discuss these issues openly. The Kwankwasiyya is the heart of NNPP. Without it, the NNPP could collapse.”

He also dismissed the ‘Abba Tsaya da Kafarka’ slogan, which calls for Yusuf to “stand on his own two feet,” stating that it undermines party unity. “This movement appears aimed at destabilising the party, and we won’t take it lightly,” Dungurawa said, noting that the party has suspended those involved and is investigating the matter further.

Meanwhile, analysts have observed that the unfolding drama highlights a critical moment for Kwankwaso and the NNPP. They emphasised that Kwankwaso’s hold over Kano politics and Yusuf’s government face their biggest test yet with this internal turmoil.

[DailyTrust]

Wednesday, 06 November 2024 07:40

LP crisis: Abia LG poll compounds party’s woes

The leadership crisis rocking the Labour Party, LP, worsened, weekend, with the party failing to clinch at least one local government area in the recently conducted Abia State local government elections.

The outcome of the polls is seen as an indication that the leadership crisis plaguing the LP at the national level has taken a turn for the worse.

DAILY POST recalls that the party has been embroiled in a leadership crisis, with notable figures such as its former presidential candidate Peter Obi and Abia State Governor Alex Otti dumping Julius Abure’s leadership.

The crisis stemmed from allegations of corruption and misappropriation of funds against the Abure-led leadership.

Otti and Obi had joined others to nominate ex-minister of finance, Mrs Nenadi Usman, as caretaker chairman of the party.

They convened a stakeholders’ meeting where the ex-minister was appointed head of a 29-member caretaker committee to preside over the affairs of the party.

However, Abure has held on tightly to the party, following a Federal High Court ruling in Abuja on Tuesday, October 7, 2024, which returned him as the national chairman.

Though DAILY POST learnt there are secret moves to resolve the crisis, a fresh twist was introduced to the intractable crisis following the outcome of the Local Governments election in Abia state – only state under the control of Labour Party.

The election was sequel to the July 11 landmark judgement by the Supreme Court which triggered a flurry of activities in the country’s third tier of government.

According to the results announced by the Chairman of the Abia State Independent Electoral Commission, Prof. George Chima, and reported by DAILY POST, the Zenith Labour Party emerged victorious in 15 out of the 17 Local Government Areas in the State, while the Young Progressive Party claimed victory in the remaining two LGAs.

Findings by DAILY POST suggested that the crisis in the Labour Party made Otti to direct his supporters to contest the election on another platform.

Speaking to DAILY POST about the matter, Abia State Chairman of the Labour Party, loyal to Abure, Prince G.O. Ndubueze described the election as a sham.

Ndubueze claimed they were reliably informed that the election results were written in favour of Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, and Young Peoples Party, YPP.

He said: “The election was written on Wednesday. And we organized a world press conference, where we told the world that the election had been rigged.

“As we were told, that’s how it happened – 15 Local Government Areas were written for Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, and 2 Local Government Areas for YPP. Exactly as we were told, that is what we witnessed after the election.

“The local government election cannot determine the fate of the Labour Party because the election was falsified. It can’t state the true position of the people.

“You can’t use this scam to determine what will happen in future elections. We don’t have any issue, only that the Governor advised or directed members of the Labour Party to go to ZLP to contest the election.”

However, YPP State Chairman, Nelcin Uluocha disagreed with his counterpart in the Labour Party that the result was written in the party’s favour.

Uluocha insisted that his party winning two Local Government Areas was as a result of hard work, stressing that everyone goes in for election to win.

Uluocha’s words: “It’s as a result of hard work. After all, anybody that’s going in for election is prepared to win. The feeling is not different from the effort we put in.

“Those are speculations. You forgot that you went into the last general election, where the Governor himself was on the ballot, we won Osisioma Local Government by landslide and lost Ugwunagbo Local Government with only nine votes.

“So, we consolidated on what we had already built and came out victorious this time without excuses.

“And we are believing to take more local governments and win the State, come the 2027 general election.

“So there was nothing like the governor aiding us; his party, Labour Party, was on the ballot. How could he have left his own party and supported another party?”

On his part, Emmanuel Nwaeze Otti, LP factional Chairman, loyal to Governor Otti, maintained that the election was free and fair.

According to him, people from other political parties won the election.

Nwaeze said nobody should pick a quarrel about the election.

He said: “This is a contest. In a free election, whether in the community or in the household, everybody must not win at the same time.

“Yes, we contested the election and people from other political parties won the election.

“It is only people who play politics with bitterness that say it must be me, or nobody else.

“Here’s a free and fair election and somebody won. I wouldn’t pick a quarrel on that. I know tomorrow it might be my turn.”

Speaking on the crisis at the national level, he said: “I don’t think I feel bad. In a family, there must be misunderstanding or disagreement.

“When there’s disagreement, there’s a need to come together as one indivisible family. Sometimes husband and wife do disagree but at the end of the day they agree.”

Meanwhile, Ata-Awaji Anthony, a political communication expert, has lamented that what is playing out following the conduct of local government elections in some of the states doesn’t reflect good democratic principles.

Anthony, also a lecturer in the Department of Mass Communication, Topfaith University, Mkpatak, Akwa Ibom State, argued that with recent happenings within the political landscape, democracy is in danger in the country.

“First, I must applaud the judiciary for strengthening local government administration in Nigeria following the ruling that local government areas should be governed by elected administrators, not people appointed by governors.

“However, the fact that those who contested the various positions under the parties in power in the various states of the federation, except Akwa Ibom State and Rivers State, all emerged winners of the polls, is something that should be questioned.

“Does it mean that candidates of the other parties in various states are not loved by their people?

“I don’t think that what is playing out in Nigeria following the conduct of local government elections in some of the states reflect good democratic principles.

“The beauty of democracy is divergent views, at least two party system representation at the legislative arm of government to ensure checks and balance, freedom of speech, among others.

“The recent happenings within the political landscape in Nigeria will not guarantee such democratic norm.

“More so, it shows that most of the state governors can best be described as dictators.

“Democracy is, therefore, in danger in Nigeria,” he said.

 [DailyPost]
Wednesday, 06 November 2024 07:37

US polls: Republicans seize control Of Senate

Republicans wrested control of the United States Senate from the Democrats, US media projected early Wednesday, ending four years in the minority and marking a significant boost for the party in its quest to dominate all branches of government.

The victory positions Republicans to strongly support the incoming president in enacting their agenda and appointing justices to the US Supreme Court if Donald Trump prevails — but could lead to legislative deadlock if his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, wins.

The US Capitol comprises the House of Representatives — where all 435 seats are contested — and a 100-member Senate, with 34 seats at stake this year. Congressional elections run alongside the presidential race.

The sitting Republican Governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, pleased his party by winning the Senate race to replace retiring independent Joe Manchin, who had voted with the Democrats.

Ohio shifted to Republican control after long-serving Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown was defeated by Bernie Moreno, a Trump-endorsed businessman and son of a former senior Colombian government official.

 

Fox News and ABC called the race for control of the Senate after Republican Senator Deb Fischer fended off an unexpectedly strong challenge from an independent candidate in Nebraska.

“I look forward to working with President Trump and our new conservative majority to make America great again by making the Senate work again,” said Texas Senator John Cornyn, a contender to lead the Republican majority from January.

The wins by Justice and Moreno reversed the Democrats’ 51-49 Senate advantage, with Republicans now aiming to increase their lead with potential gains in Montana, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

 

– Huge power –

Democrats had hoped to offset losses with potential gains in Texas and Florida but conceded both as incumbent Republicans secured comfortable victories.

If Republicans win all remaining contested seats, they would hold 55 of the 100 Senate seats, giving them substantial influence to advance Trump’s domestic agenda and judicial appointments, should he defeat Harris.

For the first time in history, two Black women will serve simultaneously in the US Senate, following victories by Democrats Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester in Maryland and Delaware, respectively. Only three Black women, including Harris, have previously served in the Senate.

Nonpartisan finance monitor OpenSecrets reports that over $10 billion has been spent on congressional candidates this cycle — slightly less than in 2020 but almost twice as much as the $5.5 billion spent on the 2024 White House race. 

While the Senate approves treaties and certain presidential appointments, all revenue-raising bills must start in the House, where the majority outcome could take days to finalise.

Although currently in the minority, Democrats see a more achievable path to gaining control of the lower chamber, needing only to flip four seats.

In another historic milestone, Sarah McBride will become the first openly transgender politician elected to Congress after defeating Republican John Whalen III for a House seat representing Delaware.

[TheNation]

Wednesday, 06 November 2024 07:31

Reps to probe ministers over $2bn energy fund

The Ministers of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, his Science, Technology, and Innovation counterpart, Uche Nnaji, and Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, are some of the high-profile government functionaries expected to appear before the House of Representatives Committee on Renewable Energy on Wednesday.

The Committee, chaired by the member representing Ogbaru Federal Constituency, Anambra State, Afam Ogene is investigating the utilisation of over $2bn investment and grants for the development of renewable energy sources in Nigeria from 2015 till date.

The committee argued last week that despite the huge grants and investment in the sector, the power supply in the country has continued to worsen.

Scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, 5 and 6 November 2024, the investigative hearing follows the mandate given to the Committee on June 6, 2024, to investigate Ministries, Departments, and Agencies involved in investments, procurement, and receipt of grants for renewable energy sector development.

At the commencement of the investigative hearing on Tuesday, none of the ministers showed up, preferring to send representatives, most of whom were asked to return to their various offices.

Expressing his disappointment at the turnout, Ogene urged the concerned ministers and other government officials to appear before the Committee unfailingly on Wednesday.

The Labour Party lawmaker reminded representatives of invited government officials that the power to summon public officers for investigation is vested in both chambers of the National Assembly.

He said, “Let me state this again: Section 81 (1) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (As amended) provides that ‘Each House of the National Assembly shall have power by resolution published in its journal or in the official Gazette of the Government of the Federation to direct an investigation into any matter or thing with respect to which it has the power to make laws.”

He added that this power includes probing into “the conduct of affairs of any person, authority, Ministry or government department charged, or intended to be charged, with the duty of or responsibility for executing or administering monies appropriated or to be appropriated by the National Assembly.”

 

At the commencement of the hearing, Ogene called on the Budget and Economic Planning to appear before the committee to make his presentation. However, a director in the ministry, Felix Okonkwo, appeared on behalf of the minister.

Asked if he had the mandate of the minister to speak, Okonkwo said, “I can take some responsibilities but not all.”

Not pleased with the remark, Ogene urged him to go back and inform his principal to physically appear on Wednesday.

“Tell your minister to appear before this committee on Wednesday. It is not meant to witch-hunt anybody. A situation where invitations are sent about three times to heads of MDAs and they would still not appear to make their presentations is not acceptable,” he said.

The story was no different when Deputy Director of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Suleiman Abubakar, stood in for the minister.

Asked if he was delegated to speak for the minister, Suleiman said his directorate mandated him to attend the investigative hearing.

Ruling on the development, Ogene said, “You have no locus to stand in for the Minister. He should appear in person on Wednesday. We wrote to the Minister, not a directorate.”

Also expected at the investigative hearing on Wednesday are the Minister of Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, Union Bank of Nigeria, Niger Delta Power Holding Company and Union Bank of Nigeria Plc.

[Punch]

The dollar surged and Bitcoin hit a record high on Wednesday as traders bet on a victory for Donald Trump, with the ex-president securing key swing states necessary to take the White House. This boosted expectations for fresh tax cuts, tariffs, and rising inflation.

While polls had shown the race on a knife-edge, the Republican candidate appeared to be faring better than his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, as results rolled in.

Both candidates had secured expected wins in safe states, but indications that the business tycoon was edging ahead boosted the so-called Trump Trade.

Although many key swing states were still too close to call, Trump won Georgia and North Carolina, with others still undecided.

 

News that the former president’s party had taken control of the Senate further boosted prospects for sweeping tax cuts, additional tariffs, and deregulation—seen as favourable for the greenback.

The dollar jumped by 1.5 per cent to 154.33 yen, its highest since July. It also rose by more than one per cent against the euro and by more than three per cent against the Mexican peso.

Bitcoin surged nearly $6,000, hitting a record $75,330.88, surpassing its previous peak of $73,797.98 in March.

Trump has pledged to make the United States the “Bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and to appoint tech billionaire Elon Musk to lead a wide-ranging audit of governmental waste.

“The price of Bitcoin has closely followed Trump’s position in the polls and on betting markets,” said analyst Russ Mould from AJ Bell ahead of Tuesday’s US election.

Investors are “potentially taking the view that a Republican victory would lead to a surge in demand for the digital currency,” he added.

Analysts stated that a clean sweep of Congress and the White House by Trump and the Republicans would likely boost the dollar and treasury yields, due to his plans to cut taxes and impose tariffs on imports.

Republican control of the Senate and House “could bring sweeping spending or tax policy shifts. However, congressional gridlock could suppress volatility,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

Economist and Esho Capital founder Peter Esho noted, “The markets are scrambling to figure out what happens next, but for the time being, the market is pricing in a higher growth and higher inflation outlook.”

Such an outcome could pose a headache for Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who is still battling to bring inflation under control, with Trump’s plans considered inflationary.

The election coincides with the central bank’s latest policy decision, expected on Thursday, amid speculation it will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, following a 50-point reduction in September.

The dollar’s surge against the yen lifted stocks more than three per cent in Tokyo at one point, thanks to gains in exporters, while markets in Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai, and Bangkok also rose.

However, there were losses in Seoul, Wellington, Manila, and Jakarta.
Hong Kong saw a steep decline, diving nearly two per cent at one point, due to concerns about the impact of a Trump presidency on China’s economy and the relations between Beijing and Washington.

 

Traders had received a strong lead from Wall Street, where all three main indices climbed by more than one per cent.

While the result of the election is being closely watched globally, it is of particular interest in China, after Trump vowed to escalate the trade battle with the economic giant by imposing massive tariffs on Chinese goods.

The vote comes as Chinese leaders hold a key meeting to discuss a package of stimulus measures aimed at kick-starting growth and supporting the struggling property sector, which is facing a painful debt crisis.

– Key figures around 0620 GMT –

Dollar/yen: UP at 153.85 yen from 151.60 yen on Tuesday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0746 from $1.0930

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2884 from $1.3035

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.41 from 83.82 pence

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.4 per cent at 39,405.19 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 2.0 per cent at 20,585.45

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.4 per cent at 3,400.69

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.8 per cent at $70.73 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.8 per cent at $74.19 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.0 per cent at 42,221.88 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 per cent at 8,172.39 (close)

AFP

American political scientists John W Spanier and Robert L. Wendzel published a book in 1972, which they called Games Nations Play. In the book, they likened international relations to a game of chess played by various state actors who often disguise their real intentions in each move they make. 

I have adapted John Spanier’s title because I also believe that Nigeria’s ‘oil cabals’ are playing games with Nigerians. The word ‘cabal’ typically is used to designate political intrigues involving persons or entities of some eminence. Following from this, members of the oil cabal in Nigeria are the government, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd, Dangote Refinery and oil marketers. No one really knows who is telling the truth among these entities, which seem to be playing some shenanigans with Nigerians over the pricing of fuel.

 What we can surmise from all their game is that there are obvious personal and institutional interests that need to be protected and probably none of the members of the cabal is telling us the whole truth. Take Dangote for instance. For a long time the belief among Nigerians was that once the Dangote Refinery came on-stream, the pump prices of fuel would fall drastically or at least moderate. For this, when Nigerians felt the government was using the NNPCL to frustrate the Dangote Refinery, they came out in support of the company and its founder, Aliko Dangote. They created a simplistic binary narrative in which Aliko Dangote(the man who successfully built a world-class refinery that the government couldn’t do) was held up as the good guy while the other members of the cabal were projected as the bad guys. However, as fuel prices continued to soar to the high heaves, amid the bickering between the NNPCL, oil marketers and Dangote, many are no longer sure where to put the blame. This is especially so as Dangote has understandably taken a public position that government should not be subsidizing fuel.  Of course government subsidizing fuel – something many Nigerians feel is the right thing to do if the corruption and opacity in the subsidy regime is frontally addressed – would be bad business for him. 

 

Dangote has also reportedly made moves to get the government to ban the importation of fuel while marketers are reportedly claiming that imported fuel will be cheaper for Nigerians than buying from Dangote. I admire what Dangote has been able to achieve for himself and the country as a businessman. But I can also see why ideologically his feat in building a refinery may make it more difficult for the forces arguing for subsidies to be brought back on the premise that subsidizing fuel would cascade better throughout the entire value chain of the country’s economy than subsidizing any other sector.

In my column of September 9, 2023 titled: ‘Was there really a consensus that fuel subsidy should go?’ I challenged the notion that there was a consensus that fuel subsidy should be removed. I argued that the wrong notion that there was a “consensus” that the subsidy on fuel price should be removed seems to have been amplified by a number of factors: 

One, is the media orchestration of the fact that the three leading candidates in the last presidential election – Tinubu of the APC, Atiku of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party are all free marketers, who in the course of their campaigns, had said they would remove subsidies on fuel if elected.

Two, is that the constant media repetition of this lie that there was a ‘consensus’ tended to make it acquire the toga of truth – in line with the dictum of Joseph Goebbels, Minister of Propaganda for the Nazi government of the Third Reich who infamously was quoted as saying: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it people will eventually come to believe it.” 

Three, many Nigerians were disenchanted by the obvious corruption in the subsidy regime. For instance, a report by the Businessday of May 22, 2023 revealed that Buhari, who had called fuel subsidy a scam as an opposition politician, ended up spending more on fuel subsidy than his three predecessors in the current democratic dispensation combined.

Four, critical voices, essentially from the Lagos axis, who used to be the guiding spirits or quiet funders of anti-government protests, including the protest over the removal of fuel subsidy in January 2012 (aka ‘Shutdown Nigerian’ protest) became quiet or muffled when the APC came to power in 2015 as they became either emotionally aligned to the party or became weakened by that alliance.

I argued that checkmating the fraud in the subsidy regime and gradually reducing the level of the subsidy would have been more productive because maintaining a level of subsidy on PMS and fertilizer will also mean subsidizing food and manufacturing as well as the middle class (who are the most productive segment of the population). I further argue that maintaining a level of subsidy on PMS will cascade throughout the entire value chain of the country and therefore better than trying to narrowly target a particular demographic with handouts (otherwise called palliatives). Besides, I also contended that there was no logic in the government removing subsidy on fuel (where it is most needed) just to be able to create subsidies in other sectors – in a rather very inefficient and unconvincing manner. 

Obviously I do not think anyone who had invested billions of dollars to build a costly refinery as Dangote did would fold his hands for his investment to be ruined through government subsidy of fuel. I believe that a massive subsidy of fuel that would bring the pump price of fuel to less than N300 per litre would be a better and cheaper way of re-invigorating the economy and indirectly supporting our infant industries than whatever we are doing now to cushion the effects of removing fuel subsidy and floating the Naira. Yes, neoliberal economists would tell us the country cannot afford this – the way they had wrongly argued that only the elites were benefitting from fuel subsidy.  But just imagine for a while the impact of fuel costing N300 per litre on the economy!

As an undergraduate student of Political Science in the 1980s, our Marxist lecturers used to recommend that Africa should de-link from the world capitalist system. It did not make much sense to me at that time. However, with the war in Ukraine triggering imported inflation and street protests in several countries around the world, including in Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt, I began to understand better what the globalisation of markets means and what it would mean to de-link from that market or at least tactically engage it.  

The Tinubu government’s removal of fuel subsidies and flotation of the Naira almost at the same time exacerbated the imported inflation from the Russo-Ukraine War and inflicted perhaps the worst hardship in living memory on Nigerians.  Remarkably supporters of the government call these measures “reforms” as if they were different from what Babangida did when his government embraced an IMF/World Bank-supported Structural Adjustment Programme in the 1980s and 1990s. Babangida’s SAP not only emasculated the country’s middle class but also completely ruined the economy. When the SAP failed in every country it was introduced in Africa, the Bretton Woods Institutions changed the mantra from “rolling back the state” to “bringing back the state” – as they moved from market fetishism to glib talks about good governance and building of institutions. 

We have been lectured recently by a World Bank’s economic team  that we need to be on this “reform” path for at least 15 years before we could reap the supposed benefit. Obviously members of the team are unaware of the dictum by the British economist John Maynard Keynes that in the long run we are all dead. Sadly while the neo-liberal economics of the Bretton Woods Institutions could create a handful of people on the Forbes Rich List, it will simultaneously turn over 70 per cent of the population into multi-dimensional poverty.