Popular content creator and singer Nasboi has said that social media influencing and skitmaking is very lucrative.

The singer stated this during an appearance on Bahd And Boujee Podcast co-hosted by reality star Tolanibaj and actress Moet Abebe.

He said that because of how well paid skitmakers are he once thought that Sydney Talker was an internet fraudster.

However, Nasboi said that after he joined the industry he realised how lucrative it was.

He said many people still accuse skit makers and influencers of fraud because they don’t know how lucrative the creative industry is.

According to him, “Before I became a skit maker, I could beat my chest that Sydney was a Yahoo boy [internet fraudster]. Because I didn’t know how lucrative the creative industry was until I joined.

“A lot of female influencers and skit makers are also being trolled. Social media users often accuse them of sleeping with men for money but they don’t know these female influencers make a lot of money from endorsements and advertisements.

“Yahoo [internet scam] is stressful. It’s not even as lucrative as skit making. There are some skit makers who are not popular but earning huge amounts of money. I know someone who made $33,000 off a video on Facebook. He is not even popular.”

[NaijaNews]

He said he was fed up with life. He also said that the adult population was a fraternity of fraudsters living in denial. Religion and the spiritual did not mean anything to him anymore. “I have seen it all, Sir”, he said with an air of finality. Then he added: “It has to be greener pasture for me outside the country, or death”. 

Chuckling, I assured him that suicide wasn’t such a difficult thing to carry out, if he was serious about it. Then I added: “Should you need assistance, I can use my knowledge of the martial arts to dispatch you to your ancestors with not more than two good blows; administered to where they would do maximum damage and make your demise a sure banker”. He burst out laughing, but quickly pulled himself together.

“I am dead serious, sir”, he said. “I know. It’s just that there are a few things you may wish to take into consideration before you take a final decision”, I replied.

As the discussion progressed, I said that since he was sure of his conclusions about life, and was also sure about the fact that he had nothing new to learn, discover, or live for, he could do what he liked and not bother talking to anyone about it. He stared at me for a while, and was about to say something, but I continued.

“I was once in the same situation as you are at the moment. That was in my time as a youth. At that time, I was sure of how much I understood the world. I was also sure that I had seen it all and did not need to listen to anyone. The only problem was that I had this nagging suspicion that I just might have something more to learn if I looked around me hard enough.

My conclusions about life at any moment may change in the face of new experiences. So, I advised myself to seek more knowledge first. But then it had to be such comprehensive knowledge as would enable me answer most of the very important questions of life”.

He was silent for a while. Then he asked: “What are these important questions of life?

I told him that it all depended on who was asking the questions and what answers he was looking for. For me back then, I was concerned about the meaning of life and similar things. Someone else may have been concerned about how to make as much money as possible, or even how to become the most popular person in his neighbourhood, or his social circles.

It was different for me and I was forced to move from my initial cynicism when it dawned on me that I was still too ignorant, too inexperienced and too insufficiently exposed to conclude with certainty that the world, religion and everything else could go to hell. It was a truly confusing and confounding time: that stage and situation in life that is described by the ancients as the Dark Night of the Soul.

I told the young man that my resolve changed from going about and saying that life was meaningless to quietly seeking insight and personal spiritual deepening. I told him of how I initially loved this statement of Waldo Emerson: “To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment”, and how I also found it confusing.

Then he asked me what I found confusing about the statement. I explained that my resolve and desire to become my own person did not, at the same time, show me what was right or wrong to do in life. In other words, I still needed to resolve the question of truth and falsehood, based on true knowledge.

There is a difference between wanting to have one’s own values and convictions and being sure that those values and beliefs are correct, or true. That was my dilemma at the time. I can say “This is my authentic self”, but without interrogating that “self”. One is not necessarily right because one has said: “Look I want to be myself and do only what I believe in”.  What if one’s beliefs are wrong and only driven by inherited opinions, peer exposure, and one’s cultural background?

The young man was pensive for a while, after the above observations. Then he asked: “What does it mean to be authentic and real?

In response, I referred him to a section of an article which appeared on this page two years ago, under the title, “The Call for Authenticity”; wherein it was said: “The simple issue here is about reality and illusion, truth and falsehood. criminality and good behaviour. To be authentic is to be real. An authentic wooden chair is different from a fake plastic chair that is given a coat of paint in order to pass it off as a wooden chair. A person is said to be authentic when he is what he claims to be at any particular time, and completely so. To be inauthentic, on the other hand, is to have your identity, values, statements and avowed beliefs contrived to present “what is not” as “what is”. It boils down to the absence of any true identity. A chimerical being. The “Not this” that claims to be a “this”.

He paused for a while and then asked: “So, what are the essential attributes of an inauthentic person?

Again, I read from another section of the aforementioned article, thus: “The inauthentic person will rather strive to create an illusion and present same as truth, than take steps to remedy a perceived lack. It is all a question of doing everything possible to ensure that popular opinion and made-up reality create a shroud for the non-being to hide inside and masquerade an identity”.

“But my worries, as well as my decision to do something about my life, must be seen and taken as clear signs of Authenticity. Don’t you agree? He asked me.

“In a manner of speaking, yes” I replied. Then I drew his attention to yet another section of the two-year old article under reference here. “When an inauthentic person makes statements, or claims, about right, wrong, etc., it is all likely to be grounded on assumptions, expectations, views and ideas whose prevalence is mistaken for indubitability. Personal conviction is rarely ever part of the equation. Such a person will say ‘I know’, but will not bother to ask what it means ‘to know’. While one person will say ‘I know’ and mean ‘Mr. X told me…’, another will say he knows while he means ‘It is generally said and believed that…’, or even ‘I have the impression that.. ’. See?

“Tell me, sir,  is it possible for one to know if one is the victim of an inauthentic life? He queried. “Listen to this”, I said; as I read out once again: “The victim of an inauthentic life may not be aware of his predicament at all. He will be absorbed in his everyday concerns, feeling quite important and indispensable amidst it all. Yet he is dispensable in every sense of the word, without the world being the worse for it”.

I continued: “What the inauthentic person takes himself to be is very often the agglomeration of claims, conjectures, flatteries and opinions put out by himself and his ‘factory workers’; as he sits in the conventional boat of his environment, his financial status and what is generally called public opinion”. And that is why  what is said by a misguided person or public can never habour the truth?

“So, an inauthentic person cannot really speak of truth or know, as such?” He asked, almost inaudibly. I replied, quoting a paragraph in the article I mentioned earlier , where it was pointed out that the inauthentic person will rather be saying “What will my people think of such a thing”. His nakedness is there beneath the perfectly imaginary clothing of artifice. But it is precisely this artifice that is being marketed as reality, in the firm belief that all will be well in the end”.

“But this your inauthentic person is not under any visible compulsion, so where is the fear coming from? He queried, looking quite perplexed.

The response came thus: “Yet he seems to be the victim of some kind of ethereal tyranny, as he falters and stabilizes involuntarily. He is always afraid of what people would say if he did this, or failed to do that. He is worried that they may consider him foolish, unserious, etc.

“Yes! But who is this “they”? The young man asked.

I replied that this amorphous “they” cannot be individualized, since it does not really refer to this person, or to that person. “It does not even refer to all the people put together; or to everyone except me. It is not something like a universal subject from which the individual can be abstracted, no! But there it is! “They” want this and not that!

“And I ask again, sir, how does this differ remarkably from the reflexes of your authentic person?” Was the next question.

This was the reponse, as drawn from three paragraphs in the article: “Unlike the authentic self which has taken hold of itself, and which consciously determines its own possibilities, a “they” self is not localized. That is why it is true to say that to have your day-to-day life defined by the ‘they’ is to have all your genuine possibilities annulled; because your life is dispersed into undefined channels, as you wallow in the anonymity of collectivism. When an inauthentic person says “I”, he actually means “the others, whose ways prescribe mine”. Pitiful, is it not? That the amorphous group, the self-enclosed homogenous group, with its unthinking rhetoric, buries personal volition.

If you doubt that the inauthentic person unconsciously, and often totally, depends on the “they”, watch out for the constant care he takes to see how he differs from others; and whether that difference is one that should be maintained or evened out; whether he is lagging and needs to catch up, and whether he has some advantages he must strive to maintain. It is a desperate struggle for a life defined by average everydayness. A life lived with very little self-possession. 

This is how the tyranny of the “they” unobtrusively robs people of their individuality. The choices about pleasure and displeasure are dictated by the prevailing preferences. It just happens to be “the done thing”. Thus, does true knowledge get undermined and undervalued. Nobody then needs to justify anything he says or believes, other than by saying that everyone is in the same boat. Thus, you find people strutting about as leaders, statesmen, chieftains, influencers, on air personalities, etc., either after they have held public office, or because they have read a few books and talked a lot”.

“But it will all ruin any form of genuineness”, he said in dismay.

I answered in the affirmative, and continued thus: “It is sometimes in this way that the impetus to free thinking and independent enquiry is either dampened, or extinguished completely for many people. That is because ‘they’ articulate the referential context of the significance of everything. Thus, it gets spread around that there is no need to be different. Evasion of self and ignorant presumption become the norm. “Just drift along”. Do not make a nuisance of yourself, by raking up issues that will make people think, reflect, or ask questions. As Martin Buber said: “Having become uneager and inept for such living intercourse that opens up a world, they have imprisoned the person in history and his speech in a library”.

“Hmmm”, he heaved; his shoulders sinking a little lower. Then he seemed to straighten up a bit from within. I said nothing. He heaved again and then said he had a lot to think about. I nodded in agreement.

I ended my exchange with the young man thus: “Anyone who thinks, or says, that many Nigerians are not either confused, suffering or simply not sure whether they are sane or not is living with his eyes closed. Anyone who is not aware that every step, and decision, he makes in life could aid or abort his purpose in a particular earth life should wake up to that fact. Look at the life of many great men and women, and also look at history, before you decide your next steps in life”.

Quote

Anyone who thinks, or says, that many Nigerians are not either confused, suffering or simply not sure whether they are sane or not is living with his eyes closed. Anyone who is not aware that every step, and decision, he makes in life could aid or abort his purpose in a particular earth life should wake up to that fact..

Ahead of the September 21, 2024 governorship election in Edo State, political parties and their candidates have intensified campaigns across the nooks and crannies of the state to woo voters, Daily Trust Saturday reports

The political atmosphere in Edo State is that of scheming, horse-trading and jostling, as political parties and their candidates are not leaving any stone unturned ahead of the September 21, 2024 governorship election. 

Seventeen political parties have fielded candidates for the election. They are the Action Alliance (AA); Social Democratic Party (SDP); New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP); All Progressives Grand Alliance  (APGA); All People’s Movement (APM) and  the All Peoples Party (APP).

Others are the Action Democratic Party (ADP); African Action Congress (AAC); Zenith Labour Party (ZLP); Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Boot Party  (BP); Accord Party (AP); African Democratic Congress (ADC); Labour Party (LP); All Progressives Congress (APC); People Redemption Party (PRP) and  Young Progressive Party (YPP).

But pundits say the election is likely to be a three-horse race despite the fact that the APC, PDP and the LP are suffering from internal crises. 

Daily Trust Saturday reports that although the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has lifted the ban on public campaigns, political parties and their candidates are yet to commence official campaigns.  

Daily Trust Saturday reports that there were controversies and protests surrounding the emergence of candidates of the three big parties. 

There was disquiet in the APC as three governorship candidates emerged from parallel primary polls held in Benin ahead of the Edo State governorship election slated for September 21.

While a member of the House of Representatives, Dennis Idahosa, was earlier announced winner by the chairman of the APC Primary Election Committee, Governor Hope Uzodimma, at Protea Hotel in Benin City, Senator Monday Okpebholo was declared winner by the returning officer for the election, Dr Stanley Ugboaja, at the residence of Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu.

Similarly, the local government returning officers for the APC governorship primary election declared Anamero Sunday Dekeri the winner of the contest.

The spokesman of the local government returning officers, Ojo Babatunde, who announced the result in the night, said Dekeri, a member representing Etsako federal constituency at the House of Representatives, polled a total number of 25,384 votes to defeat his closest rival, Dennis Idahosa, who scored 14,127 votes.

The National Working Committee (NWC) of the party was, therefore, forced to conduct another primary election, which produced Senator Okpebholo as the party’s candidate. 

The emergence of Okpebholo also came with its own protests and fears as some party leaders said he was not the preferred candidate of a former governor of the state, Adams Oshiomhole, who is said to be APC god-father in the state. However, the party later picked Idahosa as its deputy governorship candidate for the election to settle Oshiomhole.  

The PDP primary election was also characterised by drama as Governor Godwin Obaseki, the then deputy governor, Philip Shaibu and other aspirants engaged in supremacy battle.

There were 10 governorship aspirants in the race—Shaibu; Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama; Anselm Ojezua; Felix Akhabue; Martin Uhomoibhi; Hafia Hadizat Umoru; Omosede Igbinedion; Earl Osaro Onaiwu; Arthur Esene and Asue Ihgodalo.

For the party, which hopes to retain the governorship seat, crisis started during the ward and local government congresses supervised by a three-man committee led by Governor Peter Mba of Enugu State. After the congress, 9 aspirants, excluding Ighodalo, petitioned the appeal panel, alleging irregularities.

Although Governor Obaseki didn’t deny or confirm Ighodalo as his preferred candidate, observers said his actions and body language told the story. For instance, during the ward and local government congresses, party members loyal to Obaseki emerged as delegates for the primary.

On February 22, the party conducted two parallel primary elections. One was held at the Samuel Ogbemudia Stadium, Benin City, while the second primary took place at the deputy governor’s lodge, also in Benin.

Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara State, who served as committee chairman and chief electoral officer, declared Ighodalo winner of the PDP primary at the Ogbemudia Stadium with 577 votes, while Shaibu was declared winner of the primary by the local government returning officer, Bartholomew Moses at the deputy governor’s lodge with 300 votes.

Observers said members of the party loyal to the deputy governor, who form the major block of PDP leaders that have been at war with Governor Obaseki for the control of the party, after they were denied entry into the Ogbemudia venue of the primary, moved to another venue and elected Shaibu at a parallel primary.

But the deputy national publicity secretary of the PDP, Ibrahim Abdullahi, had in a telephone interview with Daily Trust Saturday said the party recognised Asue Ighodalo as its only candidate for the election.

But according to pundits, Godwin Obaseki, in his determination to ensure that he produced a successor, picked a new deputy governor, Godwin Omobayo, an engineer, from Akoko-Edo Local Government Area, which is the second in terms of voting population in Edo North, the stronghold of the APC.

Meanwhile, the impeached deputy governor, Philip Shaibu and the former Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Kabir Ajoto, with their loyalists, who were staunch supporters of Obaseki, have pitched tent with the Chief Orbih Legacy Group after the new deputy governor was announced. 

Daily Trust Saturday reports that the PDP has unveiled its campaign council for the governor election, but some party members, including the South South national vice chairman, Chief Dan Orbih, declined its membership, saying the party’s candidate can’t tackle the challenges bedeviling the state if he eventually wins. Pundits said there were issues and threats to the chances of the party.

The process leading to the emergence of the LP candidate was not in any way better than that of the APC and the PDP, in terms of intrigues and drama.

The party’s national chairman, Julius Abure, the state chairman, Kelly Ogbalu and the senator representing Edo South, Neda Imasuen, were rooting for different aspirants.

The aspirants were Olumide Akapta, Kenneth Imansuangbon, Professor Sunday Eromosele and Sergius Ogun. But following the intrigues, two venues—Uyi Hotel and Bishop Kelly Centre—were announced for the primary election.

Imasuagbon and his supporters, it was learnt, went to Uyi Hotel for the election while the party executive and primary election committee from the NWC went to the Bishop Kelly Centre to conduct the primary.

Imasuagbon later made his way to the Bishop Kelly centre venue, where Akpata emerged as the candidate of the party after polling 316 votes.

Meanwhile, the Lamidi Apapa faction of the national leadership of the party had submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Anderson Uwadiae Asemota and Monday Ojore Mawah as governorship and deputy governorship candidates of the party for the September 21 election. But the leadership of the Labour Party (LP) has said a letter to INEC by a “dissident group and former members” of the party led by one Lamidi Apapa to recognise Anderson Asemote and Monday Mawa as the governorship and deputy governorship candidates does not emanate from the party.”

A resident of the state, Dada Ayokhai, noted that the issue at stake as INEC has lifted the ban on campaign is how the parties would manage ‘self-inflicted’ crises and participate in the election actively. 

It is left to be seen, how the parties would slug it out come September 21.

 [DailyTrust]

Following Chelsea’s commanding 2-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday, manager Mauricio Pochettino showered praise on Noni Madueke for his exceptional performance, particularly highlighting his support for youngster Alfie Gilchrist on the right flank.

Goals from Trevoh Chalobah and Nicolas Jackson secured a comfortable win for the hosts, with Pochettino emphasising the significance of a strong response after a string of disappointing results.

In contrast, Spurs endured a lacklustre display, prompting frustrations from manager Ange Postecoglou, who was visibly irked with Cristian Romero and Pape Matar Sarr during the first half.

Amidst the action, Gilchrist, making only his second Premier League start, showcased his talent on the right side of Pochettino’s defence, effectively neutralising the threat of Son Heung-min.

Reflecting on the match in his post-match interview, Pochettino commended Madueke’s impact, stating: “If you see today, Noni Madueke was amazing in the way, the effort that he helped the full-back. The midfielders and the whole team in both phases were connected.”

His words underscored the collective effort that propelled Chelsea to victory and showcased Madueke’s pivotal role in supporting the defensive line.

[DailyPost]

• Fixes hearing of application for May 20

• HEDA drags Kogi judge to NJC

The Court of Appeal, Abuja Division, yesterday suspended moves by the Kogi State High Court to commit the Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr. Ola Olukoyede for contempt.

The Appeal Court granted an ex parte motion for stay of proceedings of contempt application filed against the EFCC Chairman by the immediate past governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

The Court of Appeal, presided over by Justice Joseph O.K. Oyewole, also granted EFCC prayers to serve the processes in the appeal by substituted means on the former governor.

With Oyewole were Justices P. C. Obiora and Okon Abang.

The EFCC boss  had been  summoned by Justice Isa Abdullahi Jamil of the Kogi State High Court to appear on May 13, 2024  to show cause why he should not be committed to prison for disobeying the orders of the court.

The EFCC, however, appealed the ruling of the trial court and sought a stay of the proceeding of the court.

The EFCC boss is accused of carrying out “some acts upon which they (the EFCC) have been restrained” by the Court on February 9, 2024, pending the determination of the substantive Originating Motion.

But the Court of Appeal yesterday gave the orders for the stay of contempt proceedings after hearing Chief J.S.Okutepa (SAN) leading Eko Ejembi Eko  (SAN), Abdulkareem Musa and David Ojogbane Akogu.

The court ordered for substituted service of all the processes in the case to be pasted at No 9 Bengazi Steet Wuse Zone 4 Abuja being the last known address of Yahaya Bello.

In granting the orders, the Appeal Court held that the motion ex-parte had merit and adjourned the hearing of the Motion on Notice to May 20, 2024.

The first Motion, which was moved by Okutepa sought an ex parte   order staying the execution of the Orders made Ex-parte in Motion No. HCL/190M/2024 on the 25th day of April 2024, in the case of Alhaji Yahaya Bello vs. EFCC.

The second motion was for an order to serve the respondent Yahaya Bello all the processes in the appeal by substituted means through the mode stated on the face of the motion.

Ruling in Suit No: HCL/68M/2024 and Motion No: HCL/190M/2024, Justice I. A. Jamil had ordered that “the said act was carried out by the Respondent (EFCC) in violation of the order, which was valid and subsisting when it carried out the act.

The court said the EFCC action amounted to contempt of the court.

EFCC operatives had laid siege to the residence of the former Governor on April 17, 2024 to arrest him, despite a court order restraining them from taking such action, pending the determination of the Originating Motion.

Justice Jamil’s order was based on a motion ex-parte filed by Yahaya Bello through his lawyer, M.S. Yusuf in which he prayed the court for an order to issue and serve the Respondent (EFCC Chairman) with Form 49 Notice to show cause why Order of committal should not be made on Olukoyede.

Meanwhile, the Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA Resource Centre) has dragged Justice Jamil to the National Judicial Council (NJC) for issuing the  order of contempt against the EFCC chairman.

Although HEDA dated its petition April 29th, 2024, it was acknowledged by the Office of the Chief Justice of Nigeria on May 2nd, 2024.

The Chief Justice of Nigeria is also the chairman of the National Judicial Council (NJC).

The NGO, in the petition, accused  Jamil for  granting an order which sought to enforce “a non-existence and sundry misconduct.”

It described the action of the judge as gross abuse of his judicial powers “in a suit that not only the Kogi State High Court has become functus officio but the order sought to be enforced is non-existence at the time the ‘order to show cause’ was made.”

It added: “”We are of the view that the order to show cause granted as per Motion HCL/190M/2024 are designed to annoy, irritate, and portray the commission in bad light.

“The order to show cause was granted in a very disturbing and unnecessary circumstance. The order was granted by his Lordship in the above suit on the 25th day of April, 2024 in very questionable circumstances.

“The SUIT NO: HCL/68M/2023 BETWEEN ALHAJI YAHAYA BELLO v. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRIMES COMMISSION was filed on the 8th day of February, 2024 by Alhaji Yahaya Bello (“The Applicant”) for the enforcement of his fundamental rights seeking certain declaratory orders against the Commission.

“The crux/ objective of his claim as constituted in the originating motion was for the court’s enforcement of his fundamental rights particularly by restraining the commission from inviting, detaining, arresting and/or prosecuting the Applicant. The Originating Motion is herein attached and marked as “Exhibit HEDA 1.”

The litigation is a fallout of the N80 billion money laundering case against Bello by EFCC.

[Thenation]

Nigerian fintech companies have warned their customers against trading in cryptocurrency or any virtual currency on their apps, threatening to block any accounts found engaging in such activities.

At least four fintechs—Opay, Moniepoint, PalmPay, and Paga—have communicated this development to their customers on Friday.

Last week, the Central Bank of Nigeria stopped major fintech firms like Kuda, Opay, PalmPay and Moniepoint from onboarding new customers.

The CBN’s move was linked to an ongoing audit of the Know-Your-Customer process of the fintechs, which have been under scrutiny in recent months over concerns around money laundering and terrorism financing.

Before the CBN’s directive, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission had obtained a court order to freeze at least 1,146 bank accounts owned by various individuals and companies allegedly involved in illegal foreign exchange transactions.

In a notice issued on Friday, OPay said it would take strict measures against customers who violate its policy, which aligns with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s stance on cryptocurrency trading.

“In compliance with the CBN directive, please note that OPay prohibits any cryptocurrency and all virtual currency trading. Any account engaging in such activities will be closed, and customer information will be shared with regulatory authorities.

“Please ensure that your account does not involve any cryptocurrency or any other virtual currency transaction,” the fintech firm warned.

In a similar move, Paga, a fintech firm that has processed transactions worth $32bn in 15 years of operation, said in an email to its customers,  “As a Paga account holder, please ensure that your account is not used for crypto and virtual currency transactions. Paga accounts in violation of this regulation will be blocked.”

PalmPay, another major player in an emailed statement said, “We strongly advise against using your PalmPay account for transactions involving cryptocurrencies or any other virtual assets. Please be advised that failure to comply with these regulations may result in the suspension of your account.

On Thursday in Lagos, the founder and CEO of Moniepoint, Tosin Eniolorunda, called on cryptocurrency peer-to-peer (P2P) participants to halt their activities, citing the financial sector’s prohibition on such transactions.

[Punch]

•No ex-gov among EFCC’s 6,981 convictions in 3 years
•Only 4 former governors convicted in 21 years
•How Nigeria produced 170 governors in 25 years

If the allegations of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC were anything to go by, no fewer than 58 former governors have looted, embezzled, laundered or misappropriated the sum of N2.187 trillion in 25 years.
This figure excludes seized properties across the globe and others under probe, which run into billions of Naira.

The N2.2 trillion looted is equivalent to the Lagos State 2024 budget of N2.25 trillion and the entire South-East states’ 2024 budget of N2.29 trillion. It is several billion higher than the North-Central states’ 2024 budget of N1.89 trillion, and North-East’s N1.60 trillion.

The 58 former governors the EFCC is probing, probed, investigated and prosecuted are drawn from all parts of the country.
Since the return to civil rule on May 29, 1999, the 36 states of the country have had no fewer than 170 governors.

How Nigeria produced 170 governors in 25 years

Abia State has produced four governors, namely Orji Uzor Kalu, Theodore Orji, Okezie Ikpeazu and Alex Otti.

Anambra State produced six-Chinwoke Mbadinuju, Chris Ngige (annulled election), Peter Obi, Virgy Etiaba (acting), Willie Obiano and Chukwuma Soludo.

In Ebonyi, it is four, namely, Sam Egwu, Martin Elechi, Dave Umahi and Francis Nwifuru.

Enugu State also had four governors— Chimaroke Nnamani, Sullivan Chime, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi and Peter Mbah.

Imo State produced five – Achike Udenwa, Ikedi Ohakim, Rochas Okorocha, Emeka Ihedioha (annulled election), and Hope Uzodimma.

In Akwa Ibom there are four Victor Attah, Godswill Akpabio, Udom Emmanuel and Umo Eno.

Bayelsa has seven, namely, late DSP Alamieyeseigha, Goodluck Jonathan, Timipre Sylva, Werinipre Seibarigo (acting), Nestor Binabo (acting), Seriake Dickson and Duoye Diri.

Cross River produced four helmsmen viz- Donald Duke, Liyel Imoke, Ben Ayade and Bassey Otu.

Delta State had four-James Ibori, Emmanuel Uduaghan, Ifeanyi Okowa and Sheriff Oborevwhori.

It was also four in Edo with the likes of Lucky Igbinedion, Oserheimen Osunbor (annulled election), Adam’s Oshiomhole and Godwin Obaseki.

Rivers State produced five – Peter Odili, Celestine Omehia (annulled), Rotimi Amaechi, Nyesom Wike and Siminalayi Fubara.
Lagos is among the states with four governors following the stints of Bola Tinubu, Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

Ekiti, which is the second least populated state in Nigeria, has the highest turnover of governors with eight. They are Niyi Adebayo, Ayo Fayose, Gen Tunji Olurin (sole administrator), Tope Admiluyi (acting), Segun Oni (annulled), Tunji Odeyemi (acting), Kayode Fayemi and Biodun Oyebanji.

Ogun produced four governors viz: Segun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, Ibikunle Amosun and Dapo Abiodun.

It was five in Ondo led by the late Adebayo Adefarati, late Olusegun Agagu, Olusegun Mimiko, late Rotimi Akeredolu and Lucky Aiyadatiwa.

Osun State also had five via Bisi Akande, Olagunsoye Oyinlola (annulled) , Rauf Aregbesola, Gboyega Oyetola and Ademola Adeleke.

Oyo State produced five-, the late Lam Adesina, Rashid Ladoja, late Christopher Alao-Akala, late Abiola Ajimobi and Seyi Makinde.

In Benue State, there are four, namely, George Akume, Gabriel Suswam, Samuel Ortom and Hyacinth Alia..

Niger State also produced four in Abdulkadir Kure, Babangida Aliyu, Sani Bello and Mohammed Bago.

Kogi has had six men occupy the Government House since 1999. They include the late Abubakar Audu, Ibrahim Idris, Clarence Olafemi (acting), Idris Wada, Yahaya Bello and Usman Ododo.

Nasarawa produced four through Abdullahi Adamu, Aliyu Doma, Tanko Al’Makura and Abdullahi Sule.

Kwara also had four – Mohammed Lawal, Bukola Saraki, Abdulfatah Ahmed and Abdulrasaq Abdul Rahman.

In Plateau, there are five- Joshua Dariye, Michael Botmang (acting), Jonah Jang, Simon Along and Caleb Mutfwang.
Adamawa State produced six – Bonnie Haruna, Murtala Nyako, James Barka (acting), Umaru Fintiri, Bala Ngilari (acting), and Bindo Jibrila.

Bauchi elected four governors within the period – Adamu Muazu, Isa Yuguda, Mohammed Abubakar and Bala Mohammed.
Borno also has four late Mala Kachala, Ali Mode-Sheriff, Kashim Shettima and Babagana Zulum.

Gombe is among the states with four with the likes of Abubakar Hashidu, Danjuma Goje, Ibrahim Dankwambo and Inuwa Yahaya.
In Taraba, six persons had become governor as follows: Jolly Nyame, the late Danbaba Suntai, Garba Umar (acting), Sani Danladi (acting), Darius Ishaku and Agbu Kefas.

Yobe produced four Bukar Abba-Ibrahim, the late Mamman Ali, Ibrahim Geidam and Mai Mala Buni.

Jigawa also has four-Saminu Turaki, Sule Lamido, Badaru Abubakar and Umar Namadi.

In Kaduna, there are six – Ahmed Makarfi, Namadi Sambo, the late Patrick Yakowa, Ramalan Yero, Nasir el-Rufai and Uba Sani.
Kano produced four – Musa Kwankwaso, Ibrahim Shekarau, Umar Ganduje and Abba Kabir Yusuf.

Neighbouring Katsina also had four – late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Ibrahim Shema, Bello Masari and Dikko Radda.

In Kebbi, they are five – Adamu Aliero, Usman Dakingari, Amina Jega (acting), Atiku Bagudu and Nasir Idris.

Sokoto also has five – Attahiru Bafarawa, Aliyu Wamakko, Abdullahi Salame (acting), Aminu Tambuwal and Ahmad Aliyu.

Zamfara State also produced five governors, namely, Ahmed Yerima, Mahmoud Shinkafi, Abdulaziz Yari, Bello Matawalle and Dauda Lawal

Further breakdown

Among 170 governors, 18 were acting governors or those whose elections were nullified by the courts; 36 are currently serving and 114 were elected governors who served for one or two terms.

Among the 134 former governors, no fewer than 58 have had fraud-related tangos with the EFCC of which only four were convicted.

Those convicted were Chief Lucky Igbinedion (Edo), late DSP Alamieyeseigha (Bayelsa), Jolly Nyame (Taraba), and Joshua Dariye (Plateau).

No ex-gov among EFCC’s 6,981 convictions in 3 years

Between 2020 and 2022, the EFCC secured 6,981 convictions, according to data obtained from its website: www.efcc.gov.ng. In 2020, the commission secured 976 convictions; did 2,220 in 2021, and an unprecedented 3,785 in 2022. The data for 2023 is yet to be released.

No former governor is among the 6,981 persons convicted for fraud in the last three years.

A host of the cases are still in court, some have been dismissed for lack of diligent prosecution by the anti-graft agency and those affected acquitted. Some former governors visited the EFCC over the petitions against them and nothing was heard thereafter. Also, some former governors are dead and so are the cases against them.

58 ex-governors under EFCC’s radar

The 58 former governors who are having or have had brushes with EFCC and alleged amounts involved include late Abubakar Audu (N10.966 bn), TA Orji and sons (N551 bn), Yahaya Bello (N80.2 bn), Chimaroke Nnamani (N5. 3 bn), Sullivan Chime (N450 million), Kayode Fayemi (N4bn), Ayo Fayose (N6.9 bn), Abdullahi Adamu (N15bn), Danjuma Goje (N5bn), Aliyu Wamakko (N15 bn), Sule Lamido (N1.35 bn), Joshua Dariye (N1. 16 bn) and Timipre Sylva (N19.2 bn).

There are also Saminu Turaki (N36bn), Orji Uzor Kalu (N7. 6bn), Bello Matawalle (N70 bn), Lucky Igbinedion (N4. 5 bn), Musa Kwakwanso (N10bn), Peter Odili (N1000 bn), Jolly Nyame (N1.64 bn), James Ngilari (N167 m), Abdulaziz Yari (N84 bn), Godswill Akpabio (N100bn), Abdul fatah Ahmed (N9 bn), Ali Mode-Sheriff (N300bn), Willie Obiano (N43 bn), Ibrahim Dankwambo (N1. 3bn), Darius Ishaku (N39bn) and Ramalan Yero (N700m).

Others include Achike Udenwa (N350m), Rochas Okoro ha (N10. 8bn), James Ibori (N40 bn), DSP Alamieyeseigha ((N2.655bn), Gabriel Suswam (N3. 111bn), Samuel Orton (N107bn), Murtala Nyako (N29bn), Rashid Ladoja (4.7bn), Christopher Alao-Akala (N11. 5 bn), and Abdulkadir Kure (N600m).

The rest include Babangida Aliyu (N4bn), Abubakar Audu (N10bn), Idris Wada (N500m), Ibrahim Shekarau (N950m), Adamu Aliero (N10bn), Usman Dakingari and wife (N5. 8bn), Attahiru Bafarawa N19. 6bn), Jonah Jang (N6. 3bn), Aliyu Doma (N8bn), Tanko Al’Makura (N4bn), Boni Haruna (N93bn), Bindow Jibrila (N62bn), Adamu Muazu (13bn), Isa Yuguda N212bn) and Mohammed Abubakar (N8. 5bn).

The petitions against some former governors are hazy, and figures were not attached.

Last January, the commission reportedly said that it would revisit the N772 billion alleged fraud cases against 13 former governors. Apart from being acquitted, a host of the former state helmsmen are claiming that they are innocent of the allegations and accusing the EFCC of a political witch-hunt.

However, the anti-graft has insisted on revisiting some of the cases and ensuring that those indicted are brought to book. It is to be seen how far it would go in its latest offensive.

Chief Aderemi Adedoye, who is the immediate past Commissioner of Police in Anambra State has been in the news since he was pulled out of the Nigeria Police Force after 35 years of service. During the ceremony in Awka, Adeoye, who joined the Nigeria Police as a constable even though he had a university degree, told his audience at the Alex Ekwueme Square how an investment company he founded with some Facebook friends, is now worth about N20 billion.

Adeoye had said that with his retirement, he would go full-time into business and would not bother himself going into security consultancy as many retired security operatives usually do.

Following the controversy that has trailed his pronouncement on the investment outfit, tongues started wagging as to how the retired CP had time to engage himself in such a multi-million naira venture. On Friday, Adeoye was a guest on Arise News TV to explain everything about the business.

He said: “The people of Anambra State knew that I did my work diligently. It has never happened in the history of Anambra State that a retiring CP should be conferred with two chieftaincy titles by two communities and a street named after me.
I am Nnwane Di na mba 1 of Omasi Kingdom and I am Dike Ochiogha 1 of Ogbunka Kingdom. I received these titles within a space of one week. The street named after me is by the Governor’s Lodge in Awka. Africa Trust Magazine declared me Man of the Year and went down memory lane to capture what we did in terms of security. So I did not abuse my office. I served for 35 years without attracting any query.”

Asked to clarify the operations of the controversial outfit he has been managing and the ownership structure of the organization, Adeoye said:

“The name of this organization is Alfa Trust Investment Club. Our loan arm is registered as Artic Cooperative Multipurpose Society Limited, which is registered with the Lagos State Government. We carry on investment under the business name of Artic Ventures and Business Services and that is the name that is registered with the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC). We would have liked to register our full name as it is, but CAC did not approve that.

“Basically when we started in 2018, all the 177 founding members were my Facebook friends and they were drawn from an investment forum where I had lectured for free for years. The members requested that this thing we are doing as a hubby assist somebody and that we can pull resources together to do some legal investment. I was mandated to set the process in motion to ensure that everyone who would participate would willingly do so. The 177 members were then migrated to the Investment outfit. Subsequently, on a yearly, basis, we admit members.

These my friends invited their family members and friends to join. That is how we grow. We don’t solicit for membership. For five years of our existence, we have paid dividends every year without fail. Our purpose is to invest, not to do business.

So we don’t have an office, we don’t have overhead costs, we don’t have employees, we don’t pay salaries, we don’t have a generator, we don’t have official cars, The only thing the officials of the club spend is their data which is seen as their contributions to the growth of the club. The only thing we spend money on is organizing our physical meetings and this is paid for by membership dues, which is N5000 per member, per annum.

“For anybody to be a member, he must be a Nigerian, irrespective of where he resides in the world. The person must have visible means of livelihood which is verified. Usually, we demand to see a workplace identity card and we go further to verify it we do background checks and we insist that any member we admit must not have any criminal record.

“Those who have pending matters with EFCC are excluded. The majority of our members are Nigerian professionals all over the world. Once admitted, the person indicates the number of shares he or she wants to buy, subject to a minimum of 50,000 units”.

On whether the outfit has audited accounts, Adeoye said the organization is only an outline investment entity.

“We have a registered business address, which belongs to one of the members of the Board of Trustees. But we don’t run costs on it because everything we do is online. When members pull funds together, we use it to buy shares from the Nigeria Stock Exchange and we invest in landed properties in Estates promoted by renowned developers all over the country, and that is what has yielded the money we have today.

“We bought hundreds of plots at N750,000 per plot in 2019 and today each plot is worth N12 million. It is determined by the market price. We subscribed for 600 plots and in Ibeju Lekki we subscribed for five plots.

We are not a publicity quoted company; we are an investment company. We are not answerable to anybody, except to our members, the BOT and the management for our record, unless you bring a court order for us to account to you. Everything we do is published for our members to read. At the AGM, our accounts are approved. We have never invited external auditors to audit our books and every member is satisfied with our books.

It was some greedy members who said they wanted the accounts to be rendered and we said no problem, but that the procedure must be followed.”

He added: “My job never suffered from my attention. I keep awake every night to get information from my command and I respond accordingly, and the evidence is there.”

On the allegation that he is operating a Ponzi scheme, Adeoye stated: “Our outfit is not a Ponzi scheme, Ponzi scheme, means collecting money from new members to pay old ones. We don’t do that. Any money paid by new members is used to pay for the lands we have bought. Running a loan scheme is a feature of every cooperative society.

The loans, which can be up to N1 million are payable in nine months and we have had zero default in the last five years. We also have a land auction system where members who buy at a cheap rate sell when they appreciate.

“Last year, this generated N15 million for us. We also have our internal active stock exchange. Whatever business we do has tax liability imputed.

In terms of membership, we are 1400 strong and those expelled for criminal misconduct are 33. In terms of the size of the business, our assets are in the neighbourhood of around N20 billion. If you divide it by the number of members, it averages N15 million.

So I do not know where this idea of one person being a billionaire came from. I am not the largest shareholder in the club. The largest shareholder works with the Atomic Agency in Vienna and he is a member of BOT.

The second largest shareholder is a medical doctor based in the UK and he is a BOT member also. If anything is going wrong, it is these people who have big investments that will raise the alarm.

The person raising the alarm holds the minimum number of shares 50,000 shares. It is ridiculous that 96% of our members are with us.”

Vanguard News Nigeria

Daniel Ojukwu, a journalist with The Foundation of Investigative Journalism (FIJ), has been reportedly detained by the police over an allegation bordering on “cybercrime”.

The management of FIJ said Ojukwu went missing on May 1 while his contact numbers were not reachable as family and friends struggled to reach him.

FIJ said a track of Ojukwu’s devices revealed his last active location to be in Isheri Olofin, Alimosho LGA, noting that the area was the place where the police arrested the journalist.

The foundation revealed that Ojukwu’s family discovered he is being held by the intelligence response team (IRT) of the inspector-general of police (IGP) at the state criminal investigation department (SCID), Panti area of Lagos.

The newspaper claimed that the journalist is being held for the alleged violation of the 2015 Cybercrime Act.

Fisayo Soyombo, the FIJ founder, said he suspects Ojukwu was arrested over a certain investigative story he reported in November 2023.

Ojukwu reported that the office of the senior special assistant to the president on sustainable development goals (OSSAP-SDGs) awarded a contract for the construction of one skill acquisition centre and one block of six classrooms at Ajeromi Primary School in Lagos at the cost of N147 million.

According to the report, the fund for the contract was paid into the “account of a restaurant,” while the project was not situated in its designated location.

The report revealed that the skill acquisition centre was constructed in Ladi-Lak Nursery and Primary School on 2, Randle Road, Apapa, and the block of six classrooms in Metropolitan Nursery and Primary School, Adekunle Deen Street, Off Mile 2-Ijora Expressway, Ijora.

Attempts to reach Benjamin Hundeyin, spokesperson of the Lagos police command, were unsuccessful as his phone line was not reachable, and messages were not replied to at the time of filing this report.

 [TheCable]

Thanks to H.E. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, and his exceptional ACE team, Fitch has elevated Nigeria's credit rating outlook from STABLE to POSITIVE.

A full list of rating actions is below.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The revision of the Outlook reflects the following key ratings drivers and their relative weights:

High

Significant Reform: The Positive Outlook partly reflects reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility. Exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the ministry of finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved, central bank financing of the government scaled back and administrative efficiency measures are being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.

Distortions Reduced: The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.

Exchange Rate Liberalisation: The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year's unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of USD4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding USD2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).

Return of Sizeable Non-Resident Inflows: Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71% post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign's credit profile.

Further Monetary Policy Tightening Expected: Fitch anticipates further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in 2H24 (following the 600bp hike to 24.75% since February 2024 alongside tightening of reserve requirements) and strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR. We project inflation, which rose to 33.2% yoy in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3% in 2024 and 18.2% in 2025, still well above our projected 'B' median of 4.5%.

Medium

Fiscal Revenue Improves, Still Low: Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3pp in 2024 to 4.5% of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.

We project a 2pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6%, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1% in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN 'Ways and Means' overdraft this year, and banks' healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.

Improved Oil Production, Challenges Remain: We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages.

Nigeria's 'B-' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

Rating Fundamentals: Nigeria's rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers', high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.

Extremely High Interest Expenditure: Fitch expects GG debt/GDP to rise 2.6pp in 2024 to 44.8% ('B' median 53.2%), partly owing to currency depreciation, with the bulk of financing in 2024 domestically sourced. Domestic borrowing costs have risen due to higher policy rates, and GG interest/revenue is one of the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns at 38.2% in 2023 ('B' median 11.6%). Nigeria's public debt has a fairly long average maturity of 12.3 years, and nearly 61% is local-currency denominated, well above the current 'B' median of 35.9%.

Moderate Gross FX Reserves: Gross FX reserves fell to USD32.2 billion at end-April, from a peak of USD34.4 billion in mid-March, partly reflecting repayment of existing debt obligations, and FX sales to BDCs to support the currency. Fitch projects a broadly flat current account surplus, averaging 0.5% of GDP in 2024-2025, supported by a modest rise in oil production and remittances. We forecast FX reserves to fall to 4.2 months of current external payments at end-2024 ('B' median 4.2), from 4.4 months at end-2023.

Weak Net FX Reserves: Uncertainty continues over the net FX reserve position, with a particular lack of clarity on near USD32 billion of "FX forwards, OTC futures, and currency swaps" recorded as an off-balance sheet "commitment" in CBN's last consolidated financial statement for 2022. Fitch estimates that around 30% of Nigeria's reserves are made up of FX bank swaps, although we expect most of these to continue to be rolled over.

External Debt Service Rises in 2025: Government external debt service is moderate, expected at USD4.8 billion in 2024 and USD5.2 billion in 2025 (with USD2.9 billion of amortisations, including a USD1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November). The government plans to meet its external financing obligations through a combination of multilateral lending, syndicated loans, and potentially from commercial borrowing.

Banking Sector Resilience: The banking sector has been resilient to the impact of the sharp devaluation on the capital adequacy ratio (end-11M23: 12.3%) given balance sheet structures, including net long FC positions, which delivered large FX revaluation gains in 2023 and 1Q24. While we expect the non-performing loan ratio (end-3Q23: 4.2%) to rise in 2024, loan books are small (end-2023: 35% of banking sector assets) and overall asset quality remains closely aligned with sovereign creditworthiness, given high fixed-income securities and cash reserves at the CBN. Fitch anticipates a marked increase in equity issuance and M&A in the next two years in order to comply with a significant increase in paid-in capital requirements.

ESG - Governance: Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM). Nigeria has a low WBGI ranking at the 17th percentile, reflecting weak institutional capacity, uneven application of the rule of law, and a high level of corruption.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

External Finances: Heightened external liquidity stress, potentially illustrated by a deterioration in the CBN's net FX position, for example, due to severely constrained external financing sources, failure to push ahead with exchange-rate reforms contributing to capital outflows or banks not rolling over FX swaps with the CBN, and/or sustained lower oil receipts

Public Finances: Higher risk of debt servicing difficulties, for example, stemming from a widening fiscal deficit, failure to put the interest/revenue ratio on a downward path, weaker demand for domestic government debt, and constrained access to Eurobond financing

Macro: Greater macro-instability in the form of more entrenched high inflation or high GDP growth volatility, potentially due to renewed greater central bank fiscal financing, looser monetary policy settings, and the re-emergence of FX shortages in the economy

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

External Finances: Reduction in external vulnerabilities, for example, due to a sustainable recovery in the CBN's FX position, further easing of domestic FC supply constraints, or sustained current account surpluses

Macro: Improved credibility and consistency in monetary and fiscal policy-making and FX management, resulting in a sustained reduction in inflation and greater stability in the FX market

Public Finances: Sustainable improvement in public finances, potentially arising from an increase in oil revenue and stronger mobilisation of domestic non-oil revenue

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Nigeria a score equivalent to a rating of 'B-' on the LTFC IDR scale.

Our sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from the SRM to arrive at the LTFC IDR.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent toLTFC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the LTFC IDR, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

COUNTRY CEILING

The Country Ceiling for Nigeria is 'B-', in line with the LTFC IDR. This reflects no material constraints and incentives, relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange controls being imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private sector from converting local currency into FC and transferring the proceeds to non-resident creditors to service debt payments.

Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of 0 notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a qualitative adjustment to the model result.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

Nigeria does not publish consolidated fiscal data on a general government basis, which complicates our assessment of fiscal performance. Fitch is able to produce its own estimates for general government fiscal metrics based on disaggregated data on federal, state and local government revenue, spending and debt published by the NNPC, the CBN, the Debt Management Office, the Budget Office of the Federation and the National Bureau of Statistics. Fitch's estimates are broadly consistent with and comparable to the data used for other sovereigns. The data used was deemed sufficient for Fitch's rating purposes because we expect that the margin of error related to the estimates would not be material to the rating analysis.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability and Rights as WBGI have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Nigeria has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as WBGI have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As Nigeria has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicators, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the WBGI is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Nigeria has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective governance indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Nigeria has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for Nigeria, as for all sovereigns. As Nigeria has a fairly recent restructuring of public debt in 2005, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.

[http://www.fitchratings.com]

Your Excellencies,

It is a common knowledge that the American and French governments have been desperately lobbying the governments of Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana to agree to sign new defense pacts that would enable them to redeploy their soldiers expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Some of the troops have been redeployed to Chad but France and United States prefer countries of the Gulf of Guinea that are more strategically located to serve their interests in the central zone of the Sahel. Of the countries in the Gulf of Guinea, Nigeria turns out to be the most strategically located.

There are indications that the Nigerian Government may be favorably disposed to the proposed defense pact. However, there is a widespread apprehension that signing of the pact by Nigeria would have wide ranging implications for defense and internal security of the country. On 22nd December 2023, the last of France’s 1,500 troops deployed in Niamey and two other bases in the tri-frontier of Niger were marched out of the country.

On March 16th, 2024, Niger Republic suspended the military agreement with the United States signed in 2012, which allowed the US to station about 1100 US troops and civilian personnel permanently in Niger, to operate from two American bases in the country. American Airbase 101 is located in Niamey while Airbase 201 is located near the small northern city of Agadez, about 920 kilometers southwest of Niamey.

These French and American bases were used by the French and the Americans to carry out manned and unmanned surveillance flights and other operations in the Sahel. The bases had become the focal points for Western intelligence and surveillance operations in West Africa. The American and French troops were expelled because their presence did not serve any useful purpose. Instead, they were using the defense pact to carry out surveillance operations in the region to serve their geopolitical strategic interests. As a result of this expulsion, the Gulf of Guinea countries especially Nigeria, are being pressured to compromise their sovereignty by harboring these foreign troops who would come to serve the interests of NATO to the detriment of the national interests and security of the countries of the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria’s civil war experiences when France overtly supported the Biafran secessionists, and the ambivalence of the US should provide our leaders with food for thought.

It is important to remember that Nigerians have consistently opposed defense agreement with foreign countries since the 1960s when the Balewa administration was forced to abrogate the Anglo-Nigerian Defense Agreement, because the agreement 2 contained a clause which allowed the Royal Air force to overfly and test its aircrafts in Nigeria. The Agreement also allowed the Royal Air Force to station maintenance staff in Nigeria. The Balewa administration was pressured to abrogate the Agreement because public opinion perceived it as an impairment of Nigeria’s freedom of action which might draw the country into hostilities against it wishes. This remains true. In 2001, in his bid to ostensibly re-professionalize the Nigerian army, President Obasanjo almost unilaterally signed the “Military Cooperation Agreement Between the US and Nigeria.”

To its credit, the Ministry of Defense responded appropriately by opposing the agreement arguing that, the ministry was not involved in the negotiations between Nigeria and the US, neither were the service chiefs, who could have provided input relating to the syllabus and doctrinal content of the programme. In fact, the agreement was highly criticized by Lt General Victor Malu, the Chief of Army Staff at the time, when the US military officers demanded for Nigeria’s strategic doctrine and unfettered access its strategic military locations. According to General Malu, those were “exclusive to Nigerians only” adding that “a friend today can be an enemy tomorrow.”

Malu was not alone in protest against the agreement. His immediate boss and Chief of Defense Staff, Vice Admiral Ibrahim Ogohi also told a visiting US Air College delegation to his office that “what Nigeria needs is logistic support and not training.” In November 2007, the US renewed its attempt to set up its Africa Command (AFRICOM) in Nigeria. This move was rejected by the National Council of State. Incidentally President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was a member of the Council of State at the time.

The latest proposal to relocate the America from Niger to Nigeria coming not long after the suspension of Niger from ECOWAS, with Nigeria’s active collaboration as a result of disagreement between Niger and the US, has many serious implications not only for Nigeria - Niger relations but also for Nigeria’s national security and that of the West African region in general. According to the late Major General Joseph Garba, Nigeria’s former Minister of External Affairs, Nigeria’s neighbors are a matter of colonial heritage and socio-cultural diversity; but it is in our Nigeria’s interest to deliberately cultivate the friendship of our neighbours.

This posture has been and must continue to be a major feature of Nigeria’s foreign policy. This is even more so because historically, there has always been a noticeable degree of suspicion of Nigeria’s intentions among its French - speaking neighbors, arising no doubt from the mutual suspicion which seems to have always characterized Nigeria’s relations with France. Therefore, in this circumstance Nigeria must be bold enough to reject the proposal, if for no other reason than to return a good turn. At least since independence Nigeria and Niger have maintained relatively cordial relations that have always helped in stabilizing the sub-region on several occasions.

The two countries have come to the aid of one another during their moment of crises. The new military rulers in Niger jettisoned the security cooperation agreement between Niger and the United States because of the “attitude of the US delegation which visited Niger recently “in denying the sovereign rights of Niger’s people to choose their 3 partners and allies capable of really helping them to fight terrorism.” General Michael Langley, head of the African Command (AFRICOM) had expressed “concern” that Niger was cultivating close ties with Russia and Iran. Other reasons given for the abrogation of the agreement included the fact that the presence of the American troops in Niger was illegal. According to Amadou Abdramane the spokesperson for the Niger’s Military Council, “it was not democratically approved and imposes unfavorable conditions on Niger.” As the “Agreement” was simply a list of demands drawn by the US Embassy in Niger and sent to the Mahamadou Issoufou’s administration for its consent, which it willingly gave.

The Agreement for example provides that all United States personnel be accorded the privileges, exemptions, and immunities equivalent to those accorded to the administrative and technicalstaff of a diplomatic mission under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of April 18, 1961; that United States personnel may enter and exit the Republic of Niger with United States identification and with collective or individual travel order. It is important to clearly state that there are only dangers and no gains from such military operations.

The American operations in Niger Republic for example were ostensibly to pre-empt and uproot terrorists from the Sahelian region. The result has so far been quite unimpressive, if not a complete failure. It is apparent that the presence of American troops and other intelligence personnel in Niger Republic is not serving any useful purpose. This is for the simple reason that terrorism, far from abating, has in fact risen dramatically since the US began its operations in the region. Data sourced from the Pentagon, indicate that “with 2,737 violent events, the western Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Western Niger) experienced the largest escalation in violent event linked to militant Islamist groups over the past years of any region in Africa, a 36% increase.” …” Fatalities in the Sahel involving militant Islamist groups rose even more rapidly, 63%, resulting in 7,899 fatalities.

Niger in particular in particular “saw a 43% increase in violent events in the past year. “All told, …attacks linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel have jumped 3,500% since 2016.” “At a minimum, more US security assistance isn’t leading to more security and all signs suggest it plays a role in making matters worse.” (Elizabeth Shackelford) “The Sahel now accounts for 40% of all violent activity by militant Islamist groups in Africa, more than any other region in Africa. …Militant Islamist violence in the Sahel is also responsible for the displacement of more than 2.6 million people.” Are these results worth the erosion of sovereignty? We the signatories of this open letter believe strongly that the economic and environmental impacts of hosting foreign military bases are profound and far-reaching. Economically, the presence of these bases could potentially divert government funds and resources away from critical areas such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure development toward maintaining and securing these military installations.

This redirection of resources could stunt economic growth and exacerbate poverty in a country where much of the population already lives under challenging conditions. 4 Moreover, hosting foreign troops often leads to increased prices and living costs in local areas, disproportionately affecting the lower-income population. Environmentally, the construction and operation of military bases can lead to significant degradation of the local environment. This includes deforestation, soil erosion, water contamination, and loss of biodiversity, which are detrimental to agricultural communities and indigenous populations. The long-term environmental damage could further hinder economic opportunities and sustainable development. Historically, the presence of foreign military bases has often led to strained relations not only with neighboring countries but also within the host country itself, as seen in numerous global instances. Public opinion in Nigeria has consistently shown a strong resistance to foreign military alliances that compromise the nation’s sovereignty and independence.

The controversial history of foreign military presence in Nigeria, dating back to the abrogation of the Anglo-Nigerian Defense Agreement in the 1960s, serves as a significant historical precedent highlighting the potential risks and public discontent associated with such agreements. This historical awareness and skepticism are echoed in the present day, where there is considerable public apprehension towards the re-establishment of foreign military bases. In conclusion, as stewards of Nigeria’s sovereignty and guardians of its national interests, it is incumbent upon our leadership to heed the lessons of history and the voice of its people.

The relocation of foreign military bases to Nigerian soil represents not just a potential compromise of our sovereignty but also sets a precedent that may lead to unforeseen geopolitical, economic, and social consequences. We, the signatories of this open letter, urge you to consider the broader implications of such agreements and to prioritize Nigeria’s long-term peace and security over short-term strategic alignments.

By standing firm against the pressures to house foreign bases, Nigeria can affirm its commitment to self-determination and foster a more stable and prosperous future for all its citizens. Let us choose a path of cautious diplomacy and strategic independence, ensuring that our nation remains a beacon of stability and a model of sovereign integrity in Africa. Yours faithfully,

1. Abubakar Siddique Mohammed Centre for Democratic Development, Research and Training (CEDDERT) Zaria.

2. Kabiru Sulaiman Chafe Arewa Research and Development Project (ARDP) Kaduna.

3. Attahiru Muhammadu Jega Bayero University, Kano.

4. Jibrin Ibrahim Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) Abuja. 

5. Auwal Musa (Rafsanjani) Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC) Abuja.

6. Y. Z. Ya’u Centre for Information Technology and Development (CITAD) Kano