Our attention has been drawn to a message circulating on WhatsApp claiming that the licenses of some commercial banks (including Fidelity Bank) may be seized soon.

As the law enforcement authorities work to bring the mischiefmakers behind the false and malicious post to book, it has become necessary to debunk the story and point out the following:

1. The said message is attributed to a faceless author.
2. The Central Bank through a press release issued on 4 June 2024 confirmed that there are no plans to revoke the licenses of additional banks, stating that such allegations are false and intended to trigger panic in the financial system.
3. Fidelity Bank recently secured approval of the CBN, SEC, NGX and other regulators to embark on it’s capital raising drive. This is a mark of endorsement of the bank as no regulator would approve such an exercise if it did not find the bank in a good standing.
4. ⁠Fidelity Bank has been on a growth trajectory in the past three years, increasing PBT by a compounded Annual Growth Rate of 64%, Deposits by 33%, and Risk Assets by 32%. A review of the published financials of Nigerian Banks as of December 2023 showed that Fidelity is ranked 6th across several measures like total assets, total deposits, and total risk assets.
5. ⁠The Bank has consistently paid dividends, which has endeared us to shareholders. Two years ago,we introduced the payment of interim dividends. The average dividend yield in the past three years is 11% which ranks amongst the best in the country.
6. ⁠Fidelity Bank has maintained one of the healthiest NPL and capital adequacy ratios in the industry.
7. ⁠Global Ratings agency, Fitch, last week upgraded our LongTerm Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable, while affirming the rating at 'B-'. They also affirmed our National Long-Term Rating at 'A(nga)' with a Stable Outlook.
8. ⁠Our full year audit was recently carried out by reputable audit firm -Deloitte attesting to the efficiency of our operations

We urge members of the public to continue to disregard the story as it is entirely misleading.

Signed.
Dr Meksley Nwagboh
Divisional Head, Brand and Communications
Fidelity Bank Plc.

“Those potential terrorists that we are seeing on the streets, children begging, children sleeping on the streets, children without clothes, without education, they are potential criminals. And criminals will get access to them to recruit them and become bandits. We have to work towards fairness and justice in governance so that there will be equity in economic opportunities. That will reduce the tendency of having more bandits.”

“A large percentage of them are from Niger Republic, Mali, and Chad.” The six South-West states are being overrun by an army of homeless young men of unknown address and of mystery background.

Some snakes have beauty; their nimbleness their strength. But these ones in every neighbourhood are not pretty snakes; their presence is ugly. They enter in anonymity, like an invalid, their fangs invisible.

Last Thursday, The Guardian newspaper ran a front page lead story with the headline: ‘Homeless kids invade Abuja, South-West’. The quote above which points at where they come from I lifted from that report. The Guardian and its sources fingered Niger Republic, Mali and Chad as the source of the human flood. I add and implicate northern Nigeria and the choice it makes. We see it every day in trucks and in trailers loaded with human consignments. They land aimless, wild and fear-inducing. The story continues:

“Many strangers move into the (South-West) region in trucks and articulated vehicles loaded with foodstuffs, livestock, and other items, and travel through the Ogbomoso axis into Oyo and to Ibadan. Some of them disembark in Ogbomoso and Ibadan in Oyo State, while others move to Ogun State, and the rest to Lagos State. From Ogbomoso and Ibadan, some disperse into other parts of the state, including Sabo, a large concentration of Hausa/Fulani community, as well as another such community in Ojoo, Iwo Road, and another large concentration at Akinyele, which houses what appears to be the largest pepper market in Nigeria,” the newspaper report said, quoting recent concerns raised by the ‘South-West Security Stakeholders Group’.

There are people who see the influx as a deliberate efflux of scum; something akin to NEPA’s load shedding. There are people who think it is population dumping and excretion of pooh on the Yoruba south. I see it as the natural consequence of elite irresponsibility and state failure. These movements have consequences, and they cannot be pleasant.

On February 21, 2024, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, senator and ex-Ogun State governor, sent out a tweet. He said rather ominously that “21 percent of Nigerians currently live in the South-West. The region is projected to hold close to 50 percent of our (Nigeria’s) population by 2050 because of the pattern of migration which will ultimately put greater strains on existing infrastructure…”

I do not know how ex-Governor Daniel arrived at his projection, but his reference to “pattern of migration” got me thinking. He may be right. And if he is right, the West will be in trouble – if it is not in trouble already. Every day, lorries carry youths from outside Yoruba land to Yoruba land. That is the terrifyingly truthful reality. We see trucks and lorries and crammed buses of boys and men every day entering the west. Yet, the factory produci⁹ng the homeless runs non-stop and at full capacity, day and night.

Migration is not inherently bad. What is abhorrent is when the quality of the migrants is bad. I was in Liberia towards the end of that country’s civil war. I saw what it meant to have more than half of a county’s entire population in a zone. The country’s total population today is 5.3 million. Before the Liberian civil war, 250,000 people lived in the capital, Monrovia; the war pushed that figure up to what it is today – 1.735 million people, causing unending disruptions that have refused to go away.

Recently, I wrote against shelling out 100 young female orphans into mass marriage in Niger State. I wrote about the danger of indiscriminate wife-buying and the production of a huge unproductive population, a mass of children that are sentenced to uneducation from the womb. A consortium in Kano came out attacking me for counting their spirit’s nine toes in his presence. They called me a hater of the North. Friends and foes forwarded their piece to me. I commend their diction but deplore their dictum. I wish I could tell them sorry for stepping beyond my ‘Yoruba’ bounds. But, I cannot. I can hear the plaintive words of Socrates “How you have felt, O men of Athens, at hearing the speeches of my accusers, I cannot tell; but I know that their persuasive words almost made me forget who I was — such was the effect of them; and yet they have hardly spoken a word of truth.” Where the northern elite stand is deplorable, quicksand of wickedness.

I have read sympathetic reports that described the daily arrivals as security and economic migrants. That fact itself is problematic – especially when the receivers are challenged too by existential problems. We say tèmi tó mi l’érù má dìkun (what I carry is enough load, do not add to it). Yoruba land already has more than enough of its homelessness to contend with. In shanties and under bridges, adults – male and female – with street children compete for space at night. Even those with roofs over their heads are ‘internally’ displaced in their homes by hunger and want. Now, combine anger inherent in all these with the troubles of unwanted guests. What we have is a volcano humming and rearing to go.

Mass migration like we are discussing potentially ties forehead hairs to occipital strands. Check how ‘foreign’ and ‘indigenous’ okada riders structure their presence across the South. The home boys and the ‘invaders’ hardly mix. Their relationship is forever fanned with the heat of tension. It can’t be different and better. Between popcorn and our molars, there is no enduring friendship; there has never been. Gúgúrú pèlú enu, won kìí s’òré títí d’alé.

Myron Weiner, American author and professor of Political Science, in his ‘A Security Perspective on International Migration’ published in 1992 stressed that “conflicts create refugees but refugees can also create conflicts.” That is the fear that is discussed in hushed tones in every neighborhood in south-west Nigeria now.

What does it mean for the South-West to carry half of Nigeria’s population? ‘The World Population Prospects’, published in 2017 by the United Nation’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said by 2050, the world would have 9.8 billion people. It said Nigeria, with eight other countries, would account for half of that figure. “Among the ten largest countries worldwide, Nigeria is growing the most rapidly. Consequently, the population of Nigeria, currently the world’s 7th largest, is projected to surpass that of the United States and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050,” the UN report predicted.

The United Nations Population Fund Country programme document for Nigeria, published on 3 February, 2023, indicated that our population would reach 400 million by 2050. “The estimated population of Nigeria of 216 million and its annual growth rate of 3.2 percent is driven by a total fertility rate of 5.3. This rate is higher among rural households (5.9) and uneducated and poorest households (6.7). The population is expected to reach 400 million by 2050, making Nigeria the third most populous country globally,” the UNFPA report said.

Now, imagine half of 400 million Nigerians permanently living in Yoruba land as a result of migration from everywhere. Think of the cultural conflagration and the demographic disaster that will ensue. Think of the socio-political fissures, the tension and the permanent threat to peace and stability that will be the lot of the host. If 400 million live in western Nigeria with its present economic problems unsolved, you can be sure that more than half that figure will qualify to be described as homeless.

And, what does it mean to be homeless? The best definition of a situation always comes from those who are in it or have experienced it. “I used to think that the hardest thing about being homeless was not having a bed to sleep in – having to find a doorway, or a derelict building or the back of an abandoned car to lay your head. But I learnt from the young people that I am working with that that is not the hardest part of being homeless. Then I thought it was being hungry or cold. But that too is not the hardest part of being homeless. So I thought it was the boredom, having nothing to do, all day, every day, walking up and down trying to pass the time. But that is not the hardest part. Now I believe that the hardest part of being homeless is to live with the knowledge that if you disappeared from the face of the earth, no-one would even notice. That defines the value of your life. You are of no value to anyone; there is no one to whom you are important, no one who really cares. Your life is virtually meaningless. The message you receive from society, every minute of every day, is that you are not worth the trouble or effort or expense of providing you with even a small bedsit that you can call home.” Jesuit priest, Peter McVerry, wrote the above in his 2001 article, ‘Homelessness’.

“On 6 March, 1986, ten-year-old David Bright testified before the (United States) House Select Committee on Hunger and became an emblem of the homeless children of America in the 1980s. David lived in New York City’s Hotel Martinique, a festering behemoth that was home to 1,500 homeless children and their families.

“‘When I grow up,’ David said, ‘I will be the president of the United States. Then everyone will have a little money in their pockets.’

‘”And,’ David added, ‘no little boy like me will have to put his head down on his desk at school because it hurts to be hungry.'”

The above is part of the introductory paragraphs of a 1989 piece written by Robert M. Hayes for the American Academy of Political Science. Hayes entitled his piece ‘Homeless Children.’ It is a study in societal rejection and abandonment.

Like that 10-year-old American boy, millions of children are on the street of Nigeria dying slowly and quietly in unremitting hunger and rejection. However, unlike the American boy, our own millions without homes do not have desks to put their hunger on. They rummage the dirt of gutters and sewages in search of the ever elusive hope of survival. If they are lucky or smart enough to live and their bones grow big enough, they migrate to the South without skills, compounding their suffering and homelessness. Rescuing them and saving ourselves is why we speak and write and refuse to be silenced. Yet, we are abused and called names.

Fortunately, those who read hatred in every criticism are a fading clan of clowns. There are great people in the North who are as concerned as any patriot could be. An old friend and Senior Advocate from one of the far northern states forwarded my column on mass wedding to me and thanked me. Another old friend, a retired General from the North-East, thumbed up my position and wrote to me: “Thank you. You people are keeping us busy.” This last Saturday, a very knowledgeable Imam from northern Nigeria, Sheikh Muhammad Nuru Khalid, granted a newspaper interview where he spoke against choices that encourage irresponsible child hatching and warned of the threat it poses to societal stability and cohesion. Khalid was the Chief Imam of Apo Legislative Quarters’ mosque in Abuja who was sacked in 2022 for preaching against the ills of General Muhammadu Buhari’s government. I am quoting his Saturday Tribune interview here, copiously:

“A child that was brought up on the streets does not know the affection of the family and he cannot have that love for anybody and therefore he can kill anybody. A child that is being prevented from having education with no justification, the envy in his heart will make him dislike any educated person, the system and the country itself.

“Those potential terrorists that we are seeing on the streets, children begging, children sleeping on the streets, children without clothes, without education, they are potential criminals. And criminals will get access to them to recruit them and become bandits. We have to work towards fairness and justice in governance so that there will be equity in economic opportunities. That will reduce the tendency of having more bandits.”

But it is not easy and won’t be easy. Sheikh Khalid said “If you remove all the Almajiris on the streets today, just give it some time, you will find more of them there again if you do not remove the root of the problem.” He was right. Some plants have to be rooted out for the field to be luxurious. Sheikh Khalid added: “And the root of the problem is the family. The problem of family is how marriage is being conducted and kept. Why is it that the North produces Almajiris? Why is the South not producing Almajiris? If Islam is the problem, why is it that Yoruba Muslims are not producing Almajiris?

“When you have irresponsible parents producing many children, you will have Almajiris or worse than Almajiris. Therefore, we have to regulate marriage in Nigeria. The government must come into it, enact laws that will prevent people from just getting married anyhow. That is how to tackle the issue… Let’s not give it a dimension of Islam and think that this is just for the Muslims. Let the other faiths and other geographical locations understand that the issue of Almajiri is a security issue. Insecurity in any part of Nigeria is also a menace to the entire country. It will affect our economy, it affects our social structure; it affects everything.” Sheikh Khalid was right. May his type be mass-produced in the North.

The problem of millions of the homeless migrating “from Niger Republic”, from “Mali, and Chad” – from everywhere – into the South-West has just started. The flood won’t stop unless the state is mended, and the elite shows genuine care and the leaky dam is repaired. Danger tottering on the brink of disaster should scare and worry everyone. A hurricane is coming.

The League of Nigerian Columnists (LNC) has condemned the arrest of journalists in the country.

The association expressed this in a statement made available to this paper by Anthony Kila, Secretary General of the LNC, on Tuesday, while calling for press freedom.

It described the arrests, detention, and even abduction of journalists in the country as  “not worthy of a democratic country and should be condemned in unequivocal terms by all.”

Several arrests and detention of journalists have been recorded in the country lately including the abduction of Segun Olatunji, a former Editor of FirstNews by armed men in his home in Iyana Odo, Abule Egba area of Lagos, on March 15, 2024; Daniel Ojukwu, a journalist with the Foundation for Investigative Journalism; Nurudeen Akewushola, a journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting.

The LNC further noted that the country, with 25 years of interrupted democracy, is old enough to be free of infantile ailing typical of a growing child.

“At 25 years of democracy, the LNC expect journalists to be free to report without fear or favour, and where they err, we expect those who feel wronged should follow civil and legal processes.
“It is important to remind all that a country or government that cannot guarantee the safety and freedom of the press cannot be defined as democratic, and the onus of ensuring the safety and freedom of the media is entirely on the government of the country that wants to described as democratic,” it added.

The LNC is a conglomeration of op-ed writers in Nigeria, led by Tola Adeniyi and Yakubu Mohamed.

It comprises columnists whose columns are published in newspapers and magazines with a full-time editor. Some of its members include Ray Ekpu, Dan Agbese, Dare Babarinsa, Martins Oloja, Sam Omatseye, Ikechukwu Amaechi, and Ruben Abati.

[BusinessDay]

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has said Nigerians are angry over the hardship in the country.

The opposition party also said All Progressives Congress (APC) administrations since 2015 has desecrated the democratic principles, legacies and values which the late Chief MKO Abiola laboured and died for.

PDP, in a statement by its national publicity secretary, Hon Debo Ologunagba, to mark the Democracy Day,  charged Nigerians to speak against the anti-democratic tendencies of the APC which, according to the party, is inflicting hardship and undermining the will and rights of the citizens.

“It is distressing that our nation is observing the Democracy Day under a system that relishes in brazen violation of the Constitution, election rigging, stifling and manipulation of opposition, muzzling of dissenting voices; undermining the judicial system and other democracy institutions in desperation to turn Nigeria into a one-Party State.

“More disquieting is that all the progress and gains made by successive PDP administrations in entrenching democratic practice in Nigeria have been reversed by the APC administrations.

“Nigerians can recall with nostalgia the glorious days of the PDP at the return of Democracy in 1999 to 2015, which period witnessed the expansion of democracy practice and dividend; notably the conduct of free and fair elections; adherence to the Rule of Law and Principle of Separation of Powers, economic transformation resulting in Nigeria becoming a preferred foreign investment destination in the world.

“Democracy is all about the supremacy of the Will of the people, the Rule of Law and the pursuit of the security and wellbeing of citizens. These ideals have been completely violated by the APC administrations which leaders have no respect for public opinion but delight in burdening the people through multiple taxes and looting of treasury to finance their luxury appetite while subjecting other Nigerians to a life of fear, uncertainty, despondency and abject poverty.

“It is saddening that instead of celebrating freedom and good governance; the very of essence of democracy which Chief MKO Abiola stood for; Nigerians are in anguish over the exploitive, ill-implemented anti-people policies and programmes of the APC which has weaponized poverty in the country.

“The increase in fuel price and hike in electricity tariff with no corresponding tangible policy or programme directed towards the welfare of the people further show the anti-people stance of the APC administrations.

Today, under the APC, prices of food, medicines and other essential commodities increase uncontrollably and soaring beyond reach.”

The party added that it is provocative for APC leaders to be relishing in opulence, while other Nigerians cannot afford their daily meals and other basic necessities of life

“The recent opening of the N21 billion luxury mansion for Vice President Ibrahim Shettima by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in a country of collapsing infrastructure; with over 40% unemployment rate; where millions of citizens are literally starving; and where our schools and hospitals lack the basic operation equipment and tools is only a glimpse into the insensitivity, arrogance, impunity and reckless misdirection of resources that pervade the APC administrations.

“Our Party urges President Tinubu to use the occasion of the Democracy Day to have a deep reflection on the state of the nation under his watch, especially given the growing public agitation over hunger and high cost of living in the country.

“The PDP again reminds President Tinubu that there is destitution in the land and that the reaction of a hungry people is better imagined. Mr. President should, in keeping with democratic tenets, listen to Nigerians and review policies that are suffocating life in the country.

“Nevertheless, the PDP salutes Nigerians for their belief in Democracy and urges them not be discouraged by the failures of the APC administrations since 2015,” the party said.

[Leadership]

The Enugu Capital Territory Development Authority (ECTDA), on Tuesday, sealed the offices of the Enugu Electricity Distribution Company (EEDC) in Enugu State.

The action followed EEDC’s announcement that it would disconnect the power supply to the Enugu State Government House and other state government institutions in the South East over an N180bn debt.

EEDC’s spokesman, Emeka Ezeh, said upon arriving at the EEDC headquarters, he and other staff members found the building sealed.

“We were informed by the security men on duty that in the early hours of today (Tuesday) at about 2am, a group of men came and locked up the gates, claiming that the state governor directed the action,” he said.

In addition to the headquarters, EEDC offices in Abakpa, Awkunanaw and Ogui areas were also sealed by the agency.

Ezeh described the development as “strange”, noting that EEDC had not received any notice or communication from ECTDA regarding the action.

Ezeh said the sealing their offices might be connected to EEDC’s notice to begin disconnecting indebted customers starting Tuesday.

“Enugu State Government happens to be one of the indebted customers, with over N1bn owed to EEDC.

“It is important to state that the majority of the state government’s facilities are metered. So, it is not a case of estimated billing. EEDC has about N180bn in debts and has concluded plans to commence disconnection of indebted customers,” he explained.

When contacted, the Chairman of ECTDA, Uche Anyanwu, declined to comment on the incident.

[DailyTrust]

The 2023 Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has said the failure of the opposition to unite is threatening Nigeria’s democracy.

Atiku said the failure of opposition political parties to form a coalition and articulate a plan of good governance makes them more guilty than the All Progressives Congress, APC.

He stated this in a statement to celebrate this year’s Democracy Day.

Atiku said: “The historical timeline of the struggle that birthed this democracy is abundant with a series of coalitions and alliances amongst the political leaderships of that era to flush away the vestiges of military and dictatorial governance in order to return power to the people.

“It is commendable that for 25 years, we have witnessed an uninterrupted season of electoral politics. It is an unprecedented epoch in our history.

“It is worthy of celebration and commendation must go to the people of our great country. I must also congratulate the political class for having embraced the rectitude of nurturing a democracy, as well as the civil society. It is important that all stakeholders continue to do their bit to ensure the sustainability of our democracy.

“Today, the failings of the opposition parties to uphold the functionality of their existence are a major threat to our democracy. The earlier they realise that the fortunes of Nigeria lie in their forging a coalition, the better it will be for our country and the people.”

[DailyPost]

Former Currency Operations Director at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Ahmed Bello Umar stunned a High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Maitama that the directive of former President Muhammadu Buhari on naira redesign was not followed.

He told the court that the redesigned naira notes produced under ex-Governor Godwin Emefiele were different from the specifications approved by the former president.

Umar, who said he was in office during the naira redesign, said although President Buhari gave approval on October 13, 2022 for a specific design of the 1000, 500 and 200 naira notes, the approved specification by the then president was allegedly altered.

He was testifying in the trial of the former CBN boss on alleged unlawful printing of naira notes.

Led in evidence by prosecuting lawyer, Rotimi Oyedepo (SAN), Umar said the CBN Act requires that when new notes were to be printed there should be a recommendation of the CBN Board of Directors to the president.

He added that the Act said the president shall approve the form, design and devices on any new currency note to be produced.

The witness said that in the last currency redesign, there was a recommendation by the CBN board, which the president approved.

According to him, the president also approved that the new notes should be produced locally.

The witness noted that what was eventually produced, which are the new 1000, 500 and 200 notes, were different from what the President approved.

When asked to differentiate what was produced from what the president approved, the witness said the notes approved by the president had the “QR code” (Quick Response code).

He added: “The positioning of the portrait on the one approved by the president was on the right side, while what was produced is on the left.

“The numbering style on the approved notes is different from the one produced.”

Under cross-examination by defence lawyer, Mahmud Magaji (SAN), the witness said he was the CBN Director of Currency Operations during the naira redesign.

Umar said he was not part of the decision making on the issue of currency redesign, adding that it was wrong for the lawyer to assume that all decisions about currency must have his contribution.

“My roles as the Director of Currency Operations include the distribution of notes and replacement of notes that are burnt by fire.

“I do not have powers to award contract for minting of notes.”

Umar said that as the director in charge of currency operations, no currency becomes legal tender without his signature and that of the CBN governor.

He said the three copies of the redesigned notes carry his signature and that of the CBN boss.

The witness said he was not at the launch of the redesigned currency notes by the president.

Umar confirmed the notes in circulation as the ones launched by the president.

The second prosecution witness, Ahmed Halilu, who is the Managing Director of Nigerian Security Printing and Minting (NSPM) Plc, confirmed that the specification of the redesigned notes that was approved by the president was altered.

While being led in evidence by Oyedepo, the NSPM boss said he was invited sometimes in October 2022 by Emefiele (then as the CBN governor) to his office.

“He (Emefiele) told me that he has the presidential approval for the redesign of the currency. That is the N1000, N500 and N200 notes,” Halilu said, adding that Emefiele also told him that the currency was to be produced locally.

Halilu said his team at the NSPM Plc noticed that it would be impossible to deliver on the new notes at that time.

He said: “As at October 2022 when the issue of naira redesign came up, it was impossible for us to implement what has been designed.

“We did not produce what was approved. The NSPM Plc suggested then that Delarue of the United Kingdom (UK) should be engaged to redesign the three higher denominations of N1000, N500, and N200, taking note of the capacity, capability and machineries that we have.”

He said that the UK company was later engaged to redesign the notes which were a variation of what was already approved by the president.

When asked to identify the differences in the features of the approved and the altered designs, Halilu said the QR code, the numbering system, and the position of the watermark on the substrate (the paper) in what has been redesigned by Delarue could be compared to the one with the presidential approval.

He added: “It is almost the same with what had been approved by the president.”

The UK economy saw no growth in April, according to early official figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This comes after a 0.4 per cent increase in March.

A Reuters poll of economists had anticipated this stagnation, attributing it to wet weather negatively impacting retail sales and construction output.

The ONS report, the last GDP update before the election, revealed that April’s rainfall was 155 per cent above the long-term average.

Details later...

President Bola Tinubu marked the 25th Anniversary of Unbroken Democracy in Nigeria with a compelling address on Democracy Day, June 12, 2024. In his speech, he reflected on the nation’s journey from the struggles of military rule to becoming Africa’s most populous democracy.

Paying tribute to the heroes of the democratic movement and emphasizing the importance of sustaining democratic values, Tinubu outlined his commitment to protecting citizens’ rights and pushing forward with vital economic reforms. His call for unity and perseverance underscores the ongoing efforts to secure a brighter, more democratic future for Nigeria.

Tribute to Heroes: He pays tribute to the individuals who sacrificed their lives for the nation’s democratic struggle, including MKO Abiola, Kudirat Abiola, General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, and others.

Role of Activists and Journalists: Tinubu acknowledges the contributions of pro-democracy activists, journalists, and media establishments in fighting against military dictatorship.

Democracy as a Way of Life: He emphasizes that democracy is more than just holding elections; it is a way of life that includes freedom of speech, liberty, and peaceful transitions of power.

Commitment to Democracy: Tinubu vows to protect the rights, freedoms, and liberties of Nigerian citizens and pledges to cement democracy as the nation’s way of life.

Economic Reforms: He acknowledges the economic challenges facing Nigeria and highlights ongoing reforms aimed at creating a stronger economic foundation for future growth.

Labour Relations: Tinubu discusses negotiations with organized labour on a new national minimum wage, emphasizing the importance of cooperation over conflict in resolving disputes.

Principled Leadership: He underscores the importance of reasoned discussion and principled compromise in democratic governance.

Call to Action: Tinubu urges Nigerians to embrace the challenges of the future and to continue moving forward together toward progress and prosperity.

Preservation of Democracy: He calls on citizens to keep the fire of democracy burning and to preserve it for future generations, ending with a blessing for the Federal Republic of Nigeria and a wish for a Happy Democracy Day.
[Vanguard]

I wish to thank the Chatham House for inviting me to speak today. It is great to be back here, in this globally renowned ideation house, where contemporary issues are debated and discussed.

Ladies and gentlemen,

My last time here was when I was campaigning for the presidency of the African Development Bank in 2015.

A lot has happened since then: I was elected in 2015 and re-elected for a second term in 2020, with 100% of the votes of all 81 shareholder countries, African and non-African.

It is equally auspicious that I am speaking with you few days after the Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank Group, held last week in Nairobi, Kenya. There, our shareholders unanimously approved an additional $117 billion increase in the capital of the African Development Bank.

This follows the earlier general capital increase which raised the capital of the African Development Bank from $93 billion to $201 billion in 2019.

The new capital injection last week brings the capital of the African Development Bank to $318 billion.

We will be bigger, bolder and better.

The historic increase in our financial capacity shows the confidence of the shareholders in African Development Bank’s vision for Africa, and our resolve and commitment to accelerate its growth and development.

They did so because our High 5s priority programs (Light Up and Power Africa; Feed Africa; Industrialize Africa; Integrate Africa; and improve the quality of life of the people of Africa) have already impacted on over 400 million people in the last eight years.

The newly injected capital will allow us to do more.

It is therefore, with excitement of the wind in the sails of the African Development Bank, that I am delighted to speak to you today on “Envisioning Africa’s Economic Prospects”.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The New York Times recently had as its headlines: the future is African.

I agree with New York Times. Africa can no longer be ignored. I fully expect Africa to be the pivotal continent in the world, given its economic prospects.

First, Africa’s population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 and by then one of four persons on earth will be African. With a rising middle class and projected consumer and business expenditures to reach $7 trillion, this is a formidable market of the future.

Second, with its burgeoning young population of almost a billion people under the age of 35, Africa will boom with talented skills and form the workforce for the world.

Third, with 65% of the uncultivated arable land left on earth being in Africa, what Africa does with its agriculture will determine the future of food in the world to feed the global population of 9.7 billion by 2050.

Fourth, the future of energy transition, for a world powered largely with renewable energy, will depend on Africa. Africa has the largest solar potential in the world, which will be critical for developing green hydrogen and green ammonia that will power green economies of the world towards net zero emissions. Africa also has the largest deposits of green minerals and metals, from platinum, copper, nickel, manganese, chromium, graphite and lithium, that are critical for the manufacturing of solar panels, battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles, a market estimated to rise to $57 trillion by 2050.

Fifth, the African continental free trade area, which brings together all the 54 countries in Africa, with an estimated GDP of $3.4 trillion, is on its way to becoming the largest free-trade zone in the world.

Therefore, economic trends, growth and development of Africa are central as we look to a world where the continent will play a significant role.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Despite challenges of the Covid pandemic, geopolitical risks, high food and energy prices, and rising global interest rates, African countries are showing economic resilience. Africa’s real GDP growth increased from 3.1% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2023 and is projected to reach 4.3% in 2025, according to the African Economic Outlook Report of the African Development Bank.

Africa is the second fastest growing region in the world, second only to Asia, and has 10 of the 20 fastest-growing countries in the world.

As Africa’s economic resilience is bolstered, unlocking its economic prospects requires ensuring structural change of its economies, raising the productivity of agriculture, provision of electricity, accelerating infrastructure investments, supporting faster pace digitalization, unleashing economic and job opportunities for women and youth, and driving industrialization through greater mobilization of the private sector.

Assuring food security in Africa is top on the agenda for the African Development Bank. Over the past 8 years, we have provided close to $10 billion in support of agriculture. Our flagship initiative, Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT), has delivered climate smart agricultural technologies for 13 million farmers. Our support of heat tolerant wheat varieties to Ethiopia turned it into a wheat self-sufficient country in under four years.

The African Development Bank is also developing Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones in eleven countries to support agro-industrialization and value addition and development of agricultural value chains. This is critical to unlocking the value of the food and agribusiness in Africa worth $1 trillion by 2030.

Unlocking Africa’s vast renewable energy sources and assuring energy supply, access and security, is central to Africa’s economic prosperity. Africa still has close to 600 million people without access to electricity.

Since the African Development Bank launched its New Deal on Energy in 2016, much progress has been made, with the share of the population with electricity expanded from 32% to 57%. To expand access to electricity, the African Development Bank is implementing a $20 billion initiative called Desert-to-Power, to develop 10,000 megawatts of electricity from solar across 11 countries to connect 250 million people to electricity.

During the Spring Meetings of the World Bank earlier this year, the President of the World Bank and I launched a bold joint effort to connect 300 million Africans to electricity by the World Bank and the African Development Bank by 2030.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The African Development Bank is investing heavily in human capital to unleash the growth potential of Africa, including tapping into the scientific talents in the diaspora.

We are supporting universities of science and technology, expanding training in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, centers of excellence in biotechnology and material sciences, as well as technical and vocational training. We have committed $700 million for education and skills development, which has supported 4,000 tertiary education and training facilities, and provided 1.7 million African youth with access to education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics.

The African Development Bank is supporting Coding for Employment Programs, providing critical digital skills in computer coding in partnership with Microsoft Philanthropies. This is essential to continue to drive the expansion of the rapidly expanding fintech industries in Africa. Africa has witnessed a tripling in the number of startups, reaching 5,200 between 2020 and 2021, as revenue of fintech companies is estimated to reach over $30 billion annually by 2025. This trend mirrors what Google and the International Finance Corporation estimate that Africa’s internet economy will reach $180 billion by 2025 and $712 billion by 2050.

Unleashing the potential of the digital economy will require large investments in digital infrastructure, including fiber optics, data centers and the expansion of mobile networks to improve connectivity.

To support the businesses of young people in Africa, and drive greater entrepreneurship, the African Development Bank is establishing Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Banks across the continent. These are new financial institutions that will provide tailored financial instruments to build the businesses of young people and build youth-based wealth, which will reduce migration. The first Youth Entrepreneurship Investment Banks have been approved for Liberia ($16 million) and Ethiopia ($32 million), with several more in the pipeline.

We are also focusing on women.

The African Development Bank’s flagship initiative, Affirmative Finance Action for Women in Africa (AFAWA), is de-risking financial institutions to lend to women. AFAWA is delivering. It is working with 169 financial institutions in 43 countries and has so far approved $1.7 billion in financing for 18,300 women-led businesses. Our goal is to mobilize $5 billion for women-led businesses.

Ladies and gentlemen,

To improve regional integration and assure the success of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area, the African Development Bank has provided close to $50 billion in support of infrastructure projects in the past 8 years. This includes the construction of roads, transport corridors, rails, ports, water and sanitation, and digital infrastructure.

To support Africa’s net zero transition, the African Development Bank has launched the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa (AGIA) to mobilize $10 Billion of private financing for green infrastructure in Africa.

The African Development Bank is mobilizing more private sector investments into Africa. We supported the $24 billion LNG project in Mozambique, which will provide over $66 billion in revenue for Mozambique and make it the third largest exporter of LNG in the world. We supported the $19.5 billion Dangote Refinery Complex, which is the largest single train refinery in the world and the largest ammonia plant globally. We supported the $13 billion OCP phosphate company in Morocco, the largest phosphate fertilizer plant in the world.

Ladies and gentlemen,

A major challenge for private sector investments is risk—especially market risks, counterparty risks, exchange rate risks and political risks. To mitigate these, the African Development Bank deploys partial risk guarantees and partial credit guarantees. These are working very well and have become a significant part of our business.

For example, our EUR 195 million partial credit guarantee allowed the Republic of Benin to raise EUR 350 million from international banks and international investors, lengthening maturity from 10 to 12.5 years, at low interest at around 290 basis points below the Eurobond yield curve for similar maturities.

Our partial credit guarantee of $345 million allowed Egypt to access private capital markets, by issuing Panda bond, the first ever Panda bond issued in China by an African Sovereign. The bond issue, with 100% guarantee by the African Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, won the Sovereign, Supra and Agency bond deal of the year at the 2024 Bonds, Loans and ESG Capital Markets Awards.

Partial Risk Guarantees are being used successfully to crowd in private investors into projects with governments. The Bank is using up to $800 million in partial credit guarantee to mobilize a commercial loan of $1.35 billion for financing the 6^th lot of the Standard Gauge of the railways from Tanzania, DRC and Burundi, leveraging the Bank’s resources 3.4 times.

Ladies and gentlemen,

A major challenge facing private sector is foreign currency exchange risk, which arises because of the mismatch between foreign currency denominated loans or equity investments and local currency earnings of companies or counterparties.

The Bank provides loans in eleven local currencies and deploys local currency products. In addition, the Bank uses a range of instruments to support local currency lending, including synthetic local currency loans and use of private sector FX hedging institutions such as TCX.

Portfolio managers of global institutional investors shy away from allocations to Africa, due to multiple reasons, the major ones being high-risk perceptions. African countries therefore suffer from high-risk premiums, with the cost of accessing capital on the continent being at least 3 times that of other emerging markets and developing regions.

This “Africa risk-premium” leads to underinvestment by the private sector in Africa.

But perception is not reality.

Moody’s Analytics conducted a 14-year survey on cumulative default rates on infrastructure loans in various regions of the world. The results show that default rate in Africa was 1.9%, while default rates in North America was 6.6%; Latin America, 10%; Eastern Europe, 12%; and Western Asia, 4.3%.

To support the African Development Bank to transfer risks off from its balance sheet to private institutional investors and insurance markets, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO) provided the Bank with a $2 billion guarantee, which allowed the African Development Bank to free up $2 billion in new lending to support climate finance. The UK FCDO also provided a guarantee of $1 billion to free up the same level of financing for the African Development Bank to finance just energy transition for South Africa.

The Africa Investment Forum is providing a transparent platform for investors interested in Africa to meet, assess projects, evaluate risks, seek counter risk mitigants, as well as address political risks to investors. Since the establishment of the Africa Investment Forum in 2018, it has attracted investor interests to Africa worth over $180 billion.

Ladies and gentlemen,

There is no doubt that the economic prospects of Africa are strong. However, achieving them will require overcoming some significant headwinds.

At the top of this is building the resilience of the continent to climate change.

The continent loses $7–15 billion, which is expected to rise to $50 billion annually by 2030. From greater frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, no part of Africa is spared. Yet, Africa receives only 3% of global climate finance, with $30 billion annually for climate adaptation, while its needs are $277 billion annually.

The African Development Bank is supporting African countries to tackle climate change. We have significantly increased the share of climate finance in our annual lending from 9% in 2016 to 55% last year. The Bank is implementing a $25 billion initiative, the African Adaptation Acceleration Program—the largest climate adaptation program in the world—in partnership with the Global Center on Adaptation.

Another headwind is rising debt levels, with 22 countries at the risk of high debt distress.

This is especially the case as concessional financing globally has declined, with more countries depending on private commercial creditors and the Eurobond market. With Africa’s debt service payments of $74 billion due this year, up from $17 billion in 2010, urgent actions are needed on comprehensive debt treatment and resolution for Africa.

Ladies and gentlemen,

To address these headwinds, Africa will need significantly more financial resources. and for that the reform of the global financial architecture is critical.

Action is needed in five areas.

First, the G20 Common Framework on debt treatment needs to deliver much faster debt resolution for countries, to avoid a similar the “lost decade” that Africa experienced in the 1990s.

Second, the global financial architecture needs to deliver greater concessional financing for Africa. This is critical to reverse the dependence on commercial debt for development. The African Development Fund, which supports Africa’s 37 low-income countries, will need at least $25 billion for its 17^th replenishment to be bolder, bigger and effective in providing much needed concessional financing for countries.

Third, the global financing system must deliver more for Africa and avoid economic divergences that slow down economic recovery of the continent in cases of global shocks. This disparity in access to financing was evident during the Covid pandemic, when developed countries provided fiscal stimulus of $19 trillion to their economies (18% of global GDP), while Africa was able to provide only $85 billion (4.5% of its GDP).

The African Development Bank is developing an African Financial Stability Mechanism to better shield African economies from liquidity shocks and build economic resilience.

Fourth, the global contingent financing system must deliver more for Africa. The $650 billion Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) issued by the IMF allocated only $33 billion to Africa—or 4.5%—the continent with the greatest need.

The recent approval of the IMF Board for the use of SDRs for hybrid capital, as per the framework developed by the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, is a very positive development. The approved $20 billion SDR rechanneling for hybrid capital can be leveraged four times by the African Development Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and others to deliver at least $80 billion of additional financing for Africa and other regions.

Fifth, African countries need fairer access to global capital markets to reduce liquidity pressures and lower debt service payments. Fairer credit ratings for African countries can save at least $75 billion annually in debt service payments, according to the United Nations Development Program.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The trajectory for Africa will be much stronger as we tackle these challenges, as well as improve security, and expand more concessional financing and private sector financing.

At the end of the day, what will make the most difference is the mobilization of domestic resources. This will require continued strong macroeconomic and fiscal management, expanding tax revenues, reducing corruption and illicit capital flows, improving public financial management, and unlocking the huge natural capital wealth of Africa estimated at over $6.8 trillion.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The Africa we want is within reach.

We are making good progress.

With strong political will, global partnerships and regional cooperation, Africa will emerge as the pivotal continent.

An Africa critical to the future of the world.

An Africa, thriving, peaceful and prosperous.

It is a vision Africa deserves.

It is a vision we must do all to achieve.

Thank you very much.

Keynote delivered by Akinwumi A. Adesina, President and Chairman of the Boards of Directors African Development Bank Group at Chatham House, 7 June 2024, London