In a Report titled The Misery Index 2018 authored by Dr. Steve Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, Nigerians have been labelled the sixth most miserable people in the world. The misery index was introduced in the 1970s by Arthur Okun, an American economist, author of the seminal work, Equality and Efficiency: The Big Trade Off (1975). The original index considers such factors as unemployment rate and inflation rate. It is a formula, a methodology as it were, consistent with what is known as Okun’s law, but modified subsequently by Harvard Professor, Robert Barro and Professor Steve Hanke. The latter releases a Report annually. He tells us that: “My modified Misery Index is the sum of the unemployment, inflation, and bank lending rates, minus the percentage change in real GDP per capita. Higher readings on the first three elements are “bad” and make people miserable. These are offset by a “good” GDP per capita growth which is subtracted from the sum of the bads. A Higher Misery Index score reflects a higher level of misery, and it’s a simple enough metric that a busy president, without time for extensive economic briefings can understand at a glance.” 

In the 2018 Report which is basically a forecast of what to expect in the year 2019, Hanke identifies Venezuela as the most miserable country in the world, followed by Zimbabwe, Argentina, Iran, Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, South Africa, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Egypt and Ukraine. . Is Nigeria the sixth most miserable country in the world? Where is Syria? South Sudan? Somalia. Steve Hanke’s Report does not necessarily cover all the countries of the world. But certain points are clear from his submissions.

First, the Misery Index makes the point very clear that economic growth is linked to the people’s prosperity and happiness. Countries that suffer from stagflation are likely to have very miserable citizens. Second, lack of economic growth or a poor economy can result in political and social crisis as we have seen in Venezuela where inflation rate is said to be above 6,000% and Zimbabwe where inflation is allegedly over 97%, although this has been disputed in other evaluations which unlike Hanke’s Index, accommodate the employment rate in Zimbabwe’s informal economy. Third, good governance, leadership and political stability are important factors for macro-economic growth. The least miserable countries in the world as seen in the Misery Index 2018, would also seem to have strong leadership, and institutions and a certain measure of stability. Fourth, poverty should be avoided because it could lead to misery. Fifth, the state has a responsibility to prevent the growth of poverty and promote economic growth. 

It is important to break down and outline some of these well-known, elementary points because I see a tendency in this season to ignore external rankings or politicize them. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has already jumped on the back of the Misery Index to say that the Report confirms the party’s position that Nigeria’s economy “has virtually collapsed under Buhari.” The Hanke index does not say that the Nigerian economy has “virtually collapsed”. It says the people are among the ten most miserable people in the world. It is an economist’s index not a political review. 

Nonetheless, there are certain basics that should be established. Indeed, unemployment rate in Nigeria is about 23. 10 per cent (Q3 2018, an all-time high between 2006 and 2018. Youth unemployment according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is even higher. Inflation rate is about 12%. Food inflation is higher at 13.5%. Recently, the Central Bank of Nigeria reduced Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 13.5%, down by 50 basis points from 14%. Nigeria’s GDP growth is 1.8%.  Compared to statistics from other parts of the world, these Nigerian statistics paint a gloomy picture. Unemployment rate in India, for example, is 6.1%, Canada (5.8%), Australia (4.9%), United Kingdom (3.9%), Germany (3.1%), Ghana (2%), Cote d’Ivoire (2.6%), Saudi Arabia (12.7%) etc. 

There is also no doubt that the Nigerian economy has gone through major contractions in the last five years. The sharp drop in the spot price of oil depleted the country’s reserves, created a foreign exchange crisis  and soon resulted in recession. In 2016, Nigeria faced the consequences of a negative growth of up to 2.3 %; in 2017, inflation was as high as 18%. In September 2018, the Economic Intelligence Unit of The Economist Magazine and the HSBC Research Unit predicted a gloomy economic prospect for Nigeria in 2019 and also jumped into the troubled waters of analyzing Nigerian politics, with predictions about the likely outcome of the 2019 Presidential election in Nigeria. Both the ruling party in Nigeria – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Nigerian government kicked. They told the “experts” to keep their opinions to themselves.     

The EIU/HSBC in retrospect got the political analysis wrong (PDP lost the 2019 Presidential election, APC won) but the economic projections remain relevant and instructive. The Steve Hanke Misery Index Report may have been influenced by the EIU report. Rather than dismiss it however, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Presidency (Hanke insists the message is so straightforward even a busy President can follow it) should study the report and attend to the messages about economic growth and the careful management of certain indicators to deliver prosperity to the people. Nigeria’s palace economists may quarrel over the statistics and the methodology, but not the common sense. 

But is Hanke’s description of Nigeria as the 6^thmost miserable country in the world accurate? Even if the Nigerian economy has not “virtually collapsed”, can misery be affirmed strictly on the basis of unemployment rate, inflation rate and lending rates? Does poverty necessarily translate into misery? Is the correlation absolutely given?  Nigeria ranks low in this 2019 Misery Index, just as it ranks low on the Human Poverty Index and the Human Development Index – these are challenges for governance and leadership. But does all that mean that Nigerians are miserable? The word misery connotes unhappiness, distress, wretchedness, hardship, suffering, affliction, anguish, sadness, sorrow, melancholy. 

I think there are gaps in the Hanke Misery Index in terms of the parameters adopted; perhaps a more holistc assessment of the connection between economic growth and a people’s response as individuals and communities may have shown that economic prosperity and growth do not necessarily guarantee a people’s happiness. There may well be more misery in all the developed countries of Central Europe taken together than may be in Kenya or Cape Verde. 

There are perhaps certain anthropological factors, a certain kind of neuroscience that accounts for a people’s happiness rather than cold macro-economic statistics. In 2011, Nigeria was classified as the happiest place on earth in a Gallup Poll and its people as the most optimistic. This was within the context of widespread underdevelopment, and all forms of social sector crisis. Nigeria’s status as a happy country was again confirmed in a World Values Survey in 2014. It is noteworthy however that in 2018, Nigeria was listed as the 91^sthappiest country in the world, and the 5th happiest country in Africa in the World Happiness Report. OBv iously so much happened negatively in Nigeria between 2014 and 2018. But the sum indication is that as at 2018, Nigerians were adjudged happier than they were between 2014 and 2016.

How then can we suddenly become the sixth most miserable country in the world a year later? The difference is who is looking at what. The UN 2019 Happiness Report, for example, focusses on the human being and community, on relationships, or the neuro-science and the anthropology of happiness, rather than economic indicators. The World Happiness Report is more reflective of the Nigerian situation in my view than the Misery Index. We may have moved from being the happiest people on earth to the 91^stin the world, a reflection of the existential crisis that Nigeria faces, but the word misery does not quite capture the people’s true essence.

My point is as follows: the measurement of happiness or its antonym, misery is perhaps more subjective and experiential than academic and statistical. Culture and context should matter. Nigeria has been described as one of the poorest countries in the world. The country faces a problem of low level insurgency in the North East. Corruption is rife. Reports of all shades of violence are common place. The country’s wealth is concentrated in a few hands. Steady economic growth is a challenge. But we the people are not in misery. There may have been a slight increase in cases of suicide and depression in the country since 2015, but generally Nigerians are a resilient lot. 

The average Nigerian is imbued with a fighting spirit.  If people in other countries go through what Nigerians have gone through and are still going through, such countries would have imploded. But Nigeria has not collapsed because the people’s fighting spirit is unique. In the midst of risks and vulnerability to poverty due to economic mismanagement by Nigeria’s leaders, the average Nigerian continues to forge ahead. These are people who don’t give up easily. They believe that tomorrow will be better. When they are faced with election rigging, voter intimidation, outright theft of public resources, these are people who are likely to say: is it not four years? “Let them come and do what they want to do and go away.”  When people get killed and are abandoned by the roadside, you’d be surprised that with the corpses lying in open spaces, some Nigerians can just pull seats together and begin to have a drink, a few metres away from a decaying body. 

There is no weekend when there is no celebratory feast in a Nigerian community: flashy attires, expensive cars, exotic drinks, musicians waxing lyrical, and the men and women dancing away with no care in the world. I do not know any other country in the world where the parties and celebrations are as elaborate as the parties we throw in Nigeria. The Misery Index is talking about high unemployment rates in Nigeria. This is true but the people are so resilient, they manage to get by. They have learnt to move beyond their governments. Nigeria is the biggest market in Africa. Those who cannot get formal jobs find other things to do. 

Come to Lagos, Dr. Hanke. Some of the young ladies you would see on the streets of Lagos and on Nigerian Instagram are from very poor backgrounds and they have no extra-ordinary skills, but you are likely to see them driving expensive cars, wearing bespoke clothes, the type that Kim Kardashian cannot even afford. This is the “small girl, big God” generation that puts a lie to all that talk about misery in Nigeria.  Besides, thuggery and cultism are considered professions in Nigeria, and regarded as more profitable and influential than medicine, law or engineering. Thugs and cultists are patronized by political leaders and they are well-paid for their efforts, particularly during election seasons.  

It is only in Nigeria I guess, that a security guard, earning less than a $100 a month will have three wives and 10 children while his own employer will be struggling to maintain a family of four. It is also in Nigeria that you will find a civil servant having five wives and two concubines, even when he has not been paid a salary for 24 months. Misery? Professor Steve Hanke is an applied economist. He may not have visited some of the countries covered by his study, but in the case of Nigeria, he should not rely on textbook statistics. Unemployment rate, lending rate, inflation rate, GDP per capita may make sense to the economists, but those things sound like voodoo to the average Nigerian. 

The people live in a zone that is beyond theory. The average Nigerian is not intimidated by the gap between the very rich and the very poor, for him or her, there is a religious, rather, a spiritual side to this thing called poverty or inequality. The Nigerian is told by the large population of prosperity evangelists in the country – Muslim, Christian, and animist - that he or she can become rich overnight. In Nigeria, you can see a man as poor as a church rat in January and by December he has a mansion in his village, attended to by a retinue of hangers-on, all very happy, and he too has become an employer of labour and he is likely to pay salaries more regularly than government! Nigeria is the ultimate headquarters of trade-offs; not even Arthur M. Okun could have imagined that. The Nigerian character and attitude both raise questions about the true nature of work, employment, economic growth, or the meaning of misery beyond the theories and “forecasts”. The other question is: what is the integrity of the applied data? 

The 2019 general election in Nigeria has been described by international and local observers, stakeholders, direct participants and the electorate themselves as a “disappointment”, “ a bad day for democracy”,  “a step back from whatever Nigeria may have achieved since the return to civilian rule,”, “a shameful exercise”, “below par”, “an affront on international standards and best practice”… indeed, there is a near-universal consensus that the 2019 elections have failed the test of integrity. However, no one should expect that democracy will produce perfect results: it is in the nature of democracy itself to spring its own surprises and contradictions, be it in the United States which is yet to recover from the issues arising from the 2016 Presidential election, or in the United Kingdom where democracy has created a Brexit crisis and the people are seeking to correct the problem with more democracy, or in Thailand where a military junta and the monarchy seem to have conspired to extend military rule through the vehicle of democracy. But even in these examples, nothing compares to what Nigeria has just gone through or is still going through in the name of democracy.      

Since 1999, there has been a concerted effort, and clamour,for the need to strengthen the electoral process, to ensure that the people’s vote counts, and to reduce the menace of electoral malpractice and irregularities. In 2007, the newly elected President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua publicly acknowledged the need to address the crisis to move the country forward. This led to the establishment of the Uwais Committee on Electoral Reform which made far-reaching recommendations on how the electoral process could be improved. The Uwais Report suffered a Nigerian fate. It was swept under the carpet. In the 2011 and 2015 general elections, with Professor Attahiru Jega as the Chair of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Nigeria managed to reduce the scope of electoral abuses. One clear sign would be the relative gradual reduction in the number of election petitions. By 2015, Nigeria’s electoral chiefs were being sought after by other West African countries to help train their election officials, to help manage electoral processes across the sub-region and to offer useful advice.  In 2015, the unusual happened when a sitting President and a ruling party lost power at the centre and every one hailed the development as the triumph of democracy. 

What was overlooked was the fact that Nigeria’s democracy often described hitherto as “fledgling”, “nascent”, “putative,” in spite of the appearances of progress, had not yet grown in any real sense. It remained a “nascent” democracy. The relevant institutions for delivering credible outcomes were still problematic. We were carried away by the good sense and intentions of temporary leaders, we were carried away by short term achievements of good men, we failed to realize that it is better to keep power in the hands of good institutions and to protect the integrity of the state itself. With the transfer of power to a new set of leaders, the illusion vanished, the situation unravelled. New managers took over the same institutions for electoral processing, and whereas they make the right noises about “free, fair and credible” elections, they have proven to be more desperate for power, strictly Macchiavellian, and ready to use the instruments of state to achieve their objectives, fair or foul. The residue is this: the state cannot be entrusted to the whims and caprices of individuals. The Nigerian state must either evolve or continue to be recursive. Greedy and unfeeling political leaders cannot be trusted. 

In 2019, Nigeria took many steps backwards. Every electoral malaise that we have identified over the years was on full display in larger and surprising proportions. The images may not be entirely new, but the scope and character were shocking.  Those who have been handed victory may be holding thanksgiving services and prayer sessions, but they obviously know in their hearts, if they have any conscience, that is, that they have not done well at all. We are now in the era of “Inconclusive elections”, but it is, the electoral umpire the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) itself that suffers from this newly discovered disease that is called “inconclusive”, it is the country itself that is “inconclusive” to the extent that it is yet to evolve beyond its original fault lines. The cracks have opened wider, the reign of impunity has been enlarged, the people do not want the worst to happen, so they seem to have opted for the default mode of cowardly acquiescence. “What can we do? I can’t come and kill myself for Nigeria. I beg, let them do whatever they want, is it not just another four years? This is the back-face of voter apathy in Nigeria. The front-face is the brazen manner in which the electorate bartered votes for cash on election day. 

In many polling units, voters sold their future at the rate of N2, 500 per year and hence for the next four years, they collected N10, 000. The Nigerian professional political elite has perfected the art of exploiting the people’s poverty for political ends. Where this may not work, the goal was still achieved through violence – in 2019, thuggery was openly declared to be a profession like law, engineering, or medicine, and the state simply looked the other way. More lives were lost in the 2019 Nigerian general election than the casualty rate in the aftermath of the Cyclone Idai that caused massive devastation in the Southern African countries of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Nigerians found themselves in a situation worse than a state of nature, and they just seem to be moving on. Something is wrong with Nigeria. We need to worry about its future. 

Beginning with INEC and its leadership. How is the INEC Chairman, Mahmood Yakubu feeling right now? Those who know him say he is a well-educated man. They describe him as a gentleman. But he has just presided over one of the roughest elections in contemporary Nigerian history. He has taken INEC to the lower depths. He makes Attahiru Jega before him, look like a star. The irony of it all is that Mahmood Yakubu is in addition to being INEC Chairman, the Chairman also of the ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions (ECONEC). In that capacity, he has in the last two years, been more or less, the chief electoral officer across West Africa, providing technical support and advice, and getting Nigeria to play a leading role in ensuring sub-regional stability. Wherever he went, the ECOWAS team celebrated him. But here we are: the same Professor Yakubu Mahmood has not been able to provide the same quality of leadership in his own country. I don’t know what the judgment of history would be, but I can see very clearly that only a minority will be satisfied with the performance of INEC under Yakubu Mahmood’s watch. He once boasted that he has conducted over 180 elections since his assumption of office but Nigerians will remember him more for the number of inconclusive elections that he and his team presided over. INEC under his watch, has disappointed Nigerians.

The police failed Nigeria. The military also failed Nigeria. The 2019 general election in Nigeria is won and lost at the expense of the people’s blood. It is indeed comparable to a Boko Haram operation. Nigeria is paying the price for not paying enough attention to the Uwais panel report of 2008. Nigeria is paying the price for refusing to implement the 2014 National Conference Report. Nigeria is paying heavily for refusing to amend the Electoral Act 2010. The spiritually-minded may well add that “Karma is at work.”

Will Nigeria or the government learn any lessons from what has happened so far in these elections? I don’t think so. Have we learnt any lessons yet? No, we haven’t.  I think Nigeria and its people will just move on. They will forget very soon and 2023 will not be any different. Amnesia is this country’s principal ailment. The failure of the people is the original source of the failure of the country itself. This is what gives the architects of impunity and violence so much audacity.

Somehow, Nigerians seem to have forgotten some of the valiant men and women who sought to take over the governance of Nigeria at the highest level and who campaigned vigorously for change and progress. The 2019 general election is probably the most intense in Nigerian history, with the largest number of voters – 84 million registered voters we are told, the largest number of political parties – 91, and the largest number of Presidential candidates – 71.  It was a general election that broke the statistics on all scores including the number of recorded killings, number of persons injured, the number of inconclusive elections, vote buying, militarization, inconsistency, manipulations and violations. 

The change agents expressed their intention to help save Nigeria but they were denied and ignored because they didn’t have the instruments of state and the forces of coercion under their control, 

I am worried that many of these gladiators, those change agents who thought they could get involved in the game – that is what it is, to be honest- and make a difference have all been forgotten and abandoned. To tell the truth, they have all been consigned to a lonely place in the corridors of power and history. The Presidential race was reduced to a two-man, two-party race. A 76 –year old Muhammadu Buhari vs. a 72-year old Atiku Abubakar, PDP vs, APC, in a country that is predominantly dominated by youths, with as many as 91 registered political parties. Nigeria’s 2019 Presidential election was a battle of the septuagenarians. And you still wonder where were the youths? They were busy collecting N10, 000 per vote, brandishing machetes, killing people in Rivers, Plateau. Bauchi and Kano. They supported the old men. They sold their souls for cash. Some of them got killed. Many of them have survived and they hope to be compensated for their criminality. 

Nigeria must spare a thought for those now forgotten and lonely young men and women who lost out because they did not have the instruments of state under their control. They failed because they could not match the masters of impunity money for money. These change agents, many of them went round Nigeria, but they had no money to give the electorate on election day. Only people who have access to good money and licensed bullion vans win elections jn Nigeria. Now we know that. Many of them were articulate and charismatic. But nobody wins a Presidential election in Nigeria by being articulate. They had big ideas about the future of Nigeria. Nigeria 2019 was not about ideas. It was about brawn, cash and impunity.

As we take stock of the tragedy and the disappointment that has befallen us, it is important that the triumphant crowd, staging hollow victory parties, remembers the true change agents who tried but failed. It is important we pay tribute to those gladiators whose messages of hope and redemption remain nevertheless all-time relevant. Please step forward Emmanuel Etim (38) of the Change Nigeria Party (CNP), Omoyele Sowore (47) of the African Action Alliance (AAC), Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim (49) of the People’s Trust (PT), Kingsley Moghalu (55) of the Young Progressives Party (YPP, Ali Soyode (55) of the Yes Electorates Solidarity (YES), Olufunmilayo Adesanya-Davies (56) of the Mass Joint Action Alliance (MAJA), Adeshina Fagbenro-Byron (59) of the Kowa Party,  Obadiah Mailafia (61) of the African Democratic Congress (ADC),  Fela Durotoye (47) of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Tope Fasua (47) of the Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), Eunice Atuejide (40) of the National Interest Party (NIP)…. Obiageli Ezekwesili (55) of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN),  former World Bank staff and former Minister of the Federal Republic was also part of that crowd until she saw the handwriting on the wall, and announced her withdrawal from the race but of course, she was nicely remained by INEC that expression of interest in Nigerian politics is at some point, a trap from which no one can escape.  

But all of these key Presidential aspirants/candidates and similar persons at the state and local levels, like Banky W in Lagos, didn’t get any chance to make the significant impact they wanted to make. They were shut out by moneybags, Godfathers, thugs, the threat of violence, and the triumph of impunity. Many of their parties may soon be de-registered in accordance with with the law. 

These were men and women who probably suspected that they would not win because of the transactional and pre-bendal nature of Nigerian politics, still they went to the field and spoke their mind. Their message, collectively is clear: they want a different Nigeria, a new Nigeria, a better Nigeria, a Nigeria that serves the interest of the people, not the interest of a cabal. I salute their courage. The future of Nigeria belongs to those persons who take the risk to challenge the status quo. This is our only source of future strength. As we can see -  too many activists and radicals in civil society have voted for sheer pragmatism and hope has become the most expensive item in Nigeria today. 

Ordinarily, the postponement by a week of Nigeria’s 2019 general election should not have generated as much outrage as it has done, but the protest that the postponement has attracted is positive proof of the fact that the Nigerian electorate do not trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In 2011, the country’s elections were postponed even after voting had started. In 2015, the elections were postponed for six weeks on security grounds. The explanation that has now been given in 2019 about “logistical problems” should have been sufficient, but Nigerians are unimpressed because they have learnt not to trust the present INEC or the ruling government, hence the default response has been a series of speculative, yet unverifiable theories about what may be the actual story behind the postponement. Speaking for myself, I am willing to give INEC the benefit of the doubt, but what I find curious is the timing of the postponement, the management of the fall-outs, and the too many unanswered questions still hanging in the air. INEC needs to make more disclosures. 

The election was postponed Nicodemously in the middle of the night, while most Nigerians were asleep. The people had gone to bed hoping to troop out in the morning to use their voters’ cards to determine the future of Nigeria in the next four years, only to wake up in the morning to be told that their dream had been stolen while they slept. That certainly is suspicious.  Legitimate questions have been raised and INEC has not yet offered satisfactory answers: At what point did it occur to INEC and its leadership that there were challenges of logistics? At 8 pm on February 15? At 1 am on February 16? Was there a meeting to determine the best course of action and at what time did that meeting take place after Nigerians had gone to bed? Was there at any point a meeting of all relevant stakeholders before the decision to postpone the election was taken? Who took the decision on behalf of Nigerians and all stakeholders? 

Or was it a unilateral decision? If so, should only one person take such a weighty decision which has economic, social, and political implications not to talk of implications for the country’s image? INEC has since the postponement met with party leaders and election monitors and observers. We can label this without prejudice as an insulting afterthought! Who will defray the additional cost that is now being  incurred by international monitors and observers? Who will compensate political parties and candidates for the cost of preparation for election day? How about the people who travelled from one part of the country to the other to vote? How about the intending brides and bridegrooms who had fixed their weddings for February 23 and March 9, but who would now have to shift the dates and print new invitation cards?

In the explanation offered by INEC, there was some reference to the “weather”. When I got to that line, I was afraid that the author of the press release would soon end up blaming God for the postponement, but well, INEC didn’t – at least not yet! But the explanations are obviously unsatisfactory, given how INEC had consistently assured the Nigerian people and the international community that it was ready and prepared. If the postponement was inevitable, it would have certainly been foreseeable, and it could have been announced a few days earlier. Indeed, a few days to February 16, Professor Yakubu was still on television swearing that the dates for the election were sacrosanct. Was he deliberately lying to Nigerians when he said that? The Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA) has for record purposes, pointedly accused the INEC Chairman of lying about the weather. NAMA insists that there was no disruption in air traffic services as claimed by Professor Yakubu.  

What I see is that the postponement has achieved only four things and you can interpret each item positively or negatively depending on your inclination. One: it has deepened the Nigerian electorate’s suspicion, mistrust, angst and disappointment regarding what they consider to be the lack of independence of both INEC and other institutions involved in the management of the current electoral process. The people are convinced that there is something fishy about the postponement. INEC under Professor Mahmud Yakubu’s watch may have conducted over 1,000 elections, but the verdict out there is that the present INEC has not advertised enough capacity, hence the people have been talking about the “Osun Template” and a certain unproven intervention by the United States and other countries of the world, or a local plan to derail the elections and a scheme to put in place an Interim National Government. What we hear is that the ruling APC actually wanted a staggered election or a series of inconclusive elections to enable it control the outcome of the 2019 polls, or at best remain in power by all means.. 

Two:   Before February 16, there was so much tension in the air, passion as well, and what looked like very serious determination on the part of the voting population to participate in the 2019 general election. This reading may be contradicted by the number of voters cards that remain uncollected, but what I have seen is that those who had their cards and who were ready to vote were ready to troop out on election day. The last time I witnessed such passion was during Nigeria’s 1993 general elections. The people wanted to vote out the military and its agents, and they meant business.  The postponement of the scheduled February 16 election has brought down the level of tension in the country. It has poured cold water on the people’s passion.  It is too early to confirm whether or not this will affect the turn-out nationwide on Saturday, February 23, but what we hear on the streets is that the people are insisting that no kind of manouevre will prevent them from having a say with their votes. 

Three: by that token, INEC may have inadvertently set the people against the government of the day. What was meant to be a normal process has been turned, more or less into a referendum on the Buhari government. The people are not blaming Professor Mahmoud Yakubu. They don’t even know him: he has not yet attained that level of importance. The man they blame is President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC. Which is why I think the APC has played very clever politics by immediately distancing itself from INEC and the postponement. The witches in APC have mastered the game of not allowing their mouths to be publicly smeared with blood. They have chosen the best strategy in the circumstance, and I applaud them for that. 

Four: the postponement has further deepened the suspicion of the international community. It has put Nigeria on the spot. No one should be surprised that the international media is already analyzing and over-analyzing what is going on in Nigeria. And who is going to help the present government manage the perception problem that has arisen, especially when President Buhari tells CNN: “Nobody will unseat me!” Is he or the APC, in a position to pre-determine the outcome of this election? 

The sum of it is that INEC is at the crossroads. Nowhere is the job of an electoral umpire easy. It is more challenging in Nigeria because you have to serve man and God, especially as the enabling factors do not stop with the right of the people to vote and choose but a panoply of other factors including religion, ethnicity, money, violence, incumbency, traditional institutions, the occult, and political mischief. Nonetheless, not much rigorous thinking went into the postponement of the scheduled February 16 election. INEC could have told us for example that it wanted to use the opportunity to bring more people into the voting bracket by declaring 3 more days for the collection of voters cards, or some other kind of sop. Instead, INEC placed its credibility on the line. It confirmed earlier suspicions that there was an original plan to postpone the election. It played into the hands of the skeptics.

The challenge before Nigeria’s INEC as I see it, is how to now project itself as a credible and reliable electoral umpire. It can do that by disappointing all doubting Thomases and run a free, fair and credible election on February 23 and March 9. It is expected that INEC would use the one-week postponement to address all issues of logistics, and ensure that nothing goes wrong. I mentioned Professor Mahmud Yakubu earlier. He certainly should not allow himself to end up as a fall guy. He must do what is right.  He and his team must make sure that no election anywhere in Nigeria is declared inconclusive! Yakubu’s INEC has unfortunately acquired a reputation for declaring elections “inconclusive.” Nigerians are tired of such declarations. It is one word nobody wants to hear. The general public opinion is that when any election is declared inconclusive, it is a ploy to rig and manipulate the result. The time available is short, emotions are strong, the Nigerian public is politically divided, INEC has an urgent task to reassure Nigerians that it is sincere and that there is no hidden agenda. Any attempt to stagger the elections or postpone the elections further, will amount to a violation of the will of the people. 

Politics matters. Yes. It is probably the most important factor that defines our lives. But the country matters more. As Nigeria goes to the polls, the country must come first – every one seeking a job in government must realize that it is only when there is a country that they can get the job they seek. Letters of application are already before the people of Nigeria: the people in whom resides the sovereignty of Nigeria must be allowed to decide.  INEC must be ready to address all issues arising from the postponement of the 2019 general election. It needs be reminded, as I close this piece that all of this began with its mismanagement of previous elections, particularly in Osun and Ekiti states, and its predilection to declare elections “inconclusive.” The controversy over the presence of an alleged relative of President Buhari in one of the most strategic positions in INEC has also not helped matters. The burning of INEC offices along geo-political lines in areas of strength of the opposition only further worsened things. And is it true that a major supplier of election materials is also a candidate in this election? Could it also be true that elections were actually held in some parts of the country on February 16 because INEC could not reach all its officials and units before the scheduled commencement of elections? 

And finally, is the postponement in conformity with Section 26 of the Electoral Act and Section 105 of the 1999 Constitution? If truly it is not, then we are yet to get to the end of this postponement cinema in the light of both Section 105(2) of the Constitution and Section 26(5) of the Electoral Act. And did I hear right as I penned the last paragraphs of this commentary that President Buhari at an APC caucus meeting in Abuja announced that the security agencies have been instructed to ensure that anyone who snatches a ballot box on election day does so “at the expense of his life.” Where is the law in Nigeria that allows the President of the country to so publicly endorse extra-judicial killing and official violence? One last thing:  The international community is watching. Other world leaders expect President Muhammadu Buhari to provide the leadership that is urgently required at this critical moment in Nigeria.  

Whoever came up with the wise saying that Nigerian politics is dirty deserves an award for perspicacity. I have just returned from that dirtied, muddled up, confused, uncertain, unpredictable zone of Nigerian life and society with truck loads of stories in my head and enough impressions in my mind to last me another life-time. As you may be aware, I was Deputy Governorship candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the just concluded 2019 general elections in Ogun State. It was quite an experience. 

Before now, I had followed President Goodluck Jonathan to every nook and cranny of Nigeria during the 2015 Presidential campaign. I also served previously as a member of the Governing Council of Olabisi Onabanjo University (2003- 2007), member of the Board of Lagos State Security Trust Fund (2007 – 2011), and Official Presidential Spokesperson (2011 -2015). But I can tell you that the major lesson I have learnt in the last few months is that there is a serious difference between theory and practice in Nigerian politics. The reality of Nigerian politics puts a lie to what they teach us in Grad school, in all those seminars we attend across the world and what we experience as political appointees. Nigerian politics does not follow the rule book, the theories or what the book-makers say. This thing we call democracy, which Nigeria returned to in 1999, after mass protest and frustration with military rule, is not exactly the same democracy that they have in either the United Kingdom or the United States. Professional scholars of the subject may need to embark on a closer interrogation of a special sub-set called Nigerian democracy. Its features, post-1999, are unique. 

I have before now written about the violence that we encountered. In one piece, I reported how we narrowly escaped death and killing in Sagamu and how our campaign vehicles were vandalized. We later took the matter to the police and the Magistrate Court.  We are still in court.  On another occasion, in Abeokuta, after visiting the Hausa community in Abeokuta North, some of our vehicles were again vandalized. I didn’t even bother to report the incident. By then, violence had become the new normal not just in Ogun State but across the country. With reports of persons being killed in Rivers sate, gunshots in Lagos and mayhem in some other parts of the country, it would have been foolhardy to whine about broken vehicle windscreens. 

But we eventually had our real taste of violence when we visited Itori in Ewekoro Local Government just two days before the election. We went to see the Olu of Itori and his chiefs and the people of Itori to solicit for support. It was like going to the Lion’s Den. We had a good meeting; everyone was civil. Indeed, everything went well until area boys took over the streets and started attacking the Oba’s palace with stones and other weapons. We were told to ignore them and the meeting went on, but as time passed and dusk descended, the same people who had told us not to bother, started advising us to hurry up and leave the community. We learnt that Itori and the entire Ewekoro Local Government is Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s stronghold. The previous day, we were told, members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) were not even allowed to campaign in the community. They were chased away with a volley of bullets.   

This time, we were better prepared. Our security men went after the Itori hoodlums. They chased them into streets and disarmed them. They also launched a rainfall of gunshots. The Itori boys ran when they faced superior fire power unleashed by a combination of policemen, Civil Defence forces, vigilante groups and the OPC. The Vigilante men were valiant. They dared the hoodlums. They overpowered them and seized their weapons. Axes and guns. One look at the kind of axes that had been arrayed against us, a decent person is likely to faint! We left that community surrounded by a combined team of courageous men who led us to safety. I thought I was somewhere in Syria. When I got home, I could not sleep. My feet were hurting as if someone had set them on fire. I had body ache. My heart was palpitating. It was as if someone was playing a rhythm of gunshots in my head. I had to ask Wale and Egunje to go and help me buy Lexotan tablets. When they got to the pharmacy, they were told that Lexotan is a prescription drug and that a doctor’s prescription would be required. I don’t know how they managed the situation, but they brought a tablet which helped to calm my nerves and I slept. At that point, I lost interest in the campaign.  I kept seeing images of a shining axe. It was the kind of axe that would break any bone.

Decent and serious-minded persons would continue to avoid Nigerian politics if we do not curb the menace of violence. Should decent persons summon the courage to go into politics, they too may help to deepen the culture of violence in an attempt to protect themselves. The first thing a Nigerian politician considers is how to come out of the process alive. In this last elections, persons were killed in Rivers. Oyo State became a hotbed of reprisal killing. Properties were destroyed in Kano… Yakubu Mahmood, the Chairman of INEC is not in a position to say that he did a good job. On March 9, the people were so scared and disappointed, they didn’t even bother to turn out in large numbers.  The international community is relieved that in spite of everything, Nigeria, West Africa’s most strategic country, did not implode. I get the impression that Nigerians themselves are calm because the worst that they expected did not happen. They are glad to still have a country. 

I have also learnt that Nigerian politics is all about money. You can talk about poverty index on television and in writing and quote those figures from the usual sources, but when you go onto the field of politics, you are bound to confront the reality of the poverty that has turned the Nigerian electorate into an endless community of beggars and cynics. The tragedy of Nigeria is the impoverishment of the people and the total collapse of values and dignity. Everywhere I went, people begged for money. They were not interested in policy documents, or campaign leaflets or gift items. They just wanted cash, raw cash. I ran into hordes of young men who earn a living by belonging to neighbourhood gangs and cults. They are not interested in any talk about development and progress, many of them are college graduates by the way, they just want money to buy “drink and smoke.” 

The Nigerian political elite, the professional wing that is, has over the years destroyed this country. The political field is peopled by hypocrites who exploit the people’s poverty. The people themselves have become dangerously cynical. When we campaigned on the streets and gave exercise books to mothers and their children, we were told: “Ko si owo,  ko si ibo” -  “no money, no vote.”  Nobody was interested in exercise books! If people said as much as hello, they wanted you to pay for it. There were endless requests for mobilization fees, transformers, vehicles and all kinds of things. Two days to the election, the situation became almost unmanageable. I was asked to pick up bills at drinking joints. People stopped by and asked for money to “enjoy the rest of the evening”. Others came with requests for money to pay hospital fees, to take care of a newly born baby, to bury a relative, or to make a girlfriend happy.  One political associate told me that every request was valid because as far as the Nigerian people are concerned, only a thief goes into politics and it is better to “take their own share” before the election. 

The real problem with Nigerian democracy must be the people themselves. I don’t yet have the the full picture in other parts of the country, other than Oyo State where the people seem to have voted according to their conscience. They taught Governor Abiola Ajimobi a lesson. They made it clear to him that careless talk is not a virtue in politics and that arrogance has serious consequences. But in some other parts of the country, like Ogun and Lagos states, money played a major role. The people collected money. They voted according to the size of their greed. If you don’t have money to throw away and close your eyes while doing so, may be you should never venture into Nigerian politics as it is today. I get the impression that the people do not trust their political leaders and the politicians. There may be slight differences here and there in terms of this affective and cognitive immersion in the Nigerian political process, but for the most part, the people believe that all politicians are the same.  I was shocked by the level and size of cynicism that I saw. 

Going forward, Nigeria must address the crisis of campaign funding and finance. One Governor went on radio to boast that he will spend N7 billion to impose his candidate of choice on a state. The monthly Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of the state in question is N7 billion. Nobody has taken up the issue. Similar acts of brazen silliness have been reported across the country. Going forward, we also need to worry more about the leadership recruitment process. It must be possible for Nigerian democracy to accommodate and promote the best, those who are willing to serve, and who believe in Nigeria and higher causes. 

I also learnt many lessons about the psychology of Nigerian politics. I re-discovered our people and environment. I got a first-hand exposure to Nigerian politics, not as an observer-analyst but as a direct participant. I am better prepared for the future, and I have more than enough stories to tell. I want to thank Senator Buruji Kashamu for giving me the opportunity of this field experience and for his down-to-earth-ness, his sincerity, wisdom and the leadership that he provided. We fought hard in the courts to keep the ticket and we prevailed in the end. The PDP betrayed us up till the last minute but we are comforted that we stood for the truth and for justice. Senator Buruji Kashamu has since congratulated Prince Dapo Abiodun, the Ogun State Governor-elect. He has also visited him at home in Iperu-Remo. Dapo Abiodun has a duty and a responsibility to run an inclusive government that will address the interest of all the people of Ogun State. He should resist the temptation to be an Ijebu or APC Governor. I want to thank all the friends, family members and associates who supported me and stood by me. I am grateful to every member of our political family who devoted their time, energy and resources to the campaign. I also want to thank all the people who did their best to discourage me, and the professional trolls, haters and grumblers who have sent messages to mock me. I don’t feel discouraged. I believe Nigerian politics can be upgraded and rescued if we all summon the courage to get involved in it.  We did not lose. We won in losing. That is the paradox of this experience and of the future that is to come.

If I felt any sense of loss at all, the morning after, it was in fact, the shocking report of the death of Pius Adesanmi, Professor of English and African Studies at Carleton University, Canada, in the ill-fated Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft that crashed a few minutes after taking off from Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  

Pius was a member of our community, and he was one of the best and the brightest. He wielded a sparkling, lyrical and polemical pen which he deployed with the ease and confidence of a well-cultured intellectual. I was his fan. I enjoyed reading him because it was not difficult to see that his talent was original and that his intellect was solid and that the respect and admiration that he enjoyed was well deserved. He criticized me on many occasions but he was that kind of critic that left enough room for your dignity. I read many of his comments on my choices and interventions without feeling diminished. Why do bad things happen to good people? Why do flowers wither? Why Claude Ake? Why Pius Adesanmi? Ethiopian Airline has the best and the largest fleet in Africa. And now this… But who are we to question the Master Builder, the Great Architect Of The Universe who in one breath creates and in another breath, astounds us with the unexpected? Pius Adesanmi made his mark. If he were here, he would have had a lot more to say about the just concluded Nigerian elections. He was a significant public affairs commentator and a credible voice on all platforms. He was right: Nigeria remains, as he put it, “a nation in progress.” His death is a sad loss to the intellectual community.    

Here is yet another account of what I saw in the politics of Ogun State and Nigeria. One of my early teachable moments was the realization that you are required to dress like the people whose votes you are looking for, and operate at that level, be like them, connect with them. When the 2019 political struggle began, I used to attend meetings wearing suits. Party members looked at me suspiciously. I couldn’t miss the glances, the whispers, the murmurs but I couldn’t quite figure out what was amiss until one Sunday afternoon, I arrived at a scheduled meeting all suited up.  As soon as I stepped in, I thought I overheard someone saying quietly: “Even on Sunday evening!” I didn’t think that comment was meant for me. Whoever said that was probably talking to someone else. The pieces soon fell in place when one of our apex leaders accosted me: 

“Deputy, e ma de ku asiko yi o. E ku igbiyanju. Oro kan ma ni mo ma fe ba yin so.”

“Go ahead sir.”

“N se ni mo kan de ti e n wo kini na.  O dabi e ni pe, you don’t like to dress like us. I see you don’t wear Sokoto and Buba, or any traditional attires. You just like these white man’s suits”

“Of course, I have caftans. But I prefer to wear suits for work and formal meetings,” I responded. 

I also tried to explain that I was just coming from a television programme. 

‘Ha ha. Okay. But e joor sir., for this our campaign, you have to take it easy with these your suits oh. In politics, you must always look like the people you want to lead and speak like them. That is the only way they can feel comfortable with you. E joor sir oh. Si so okun mo orun  ni igba gbobo  yi fe po ju. Please do something about it. In this part of the country, a politician cannot go about wearing ties. Lai kii se aja!”

Of course, my wardrobe went through a quick transformation. I no longer heard any complaints or whispers, or murmurs. I had adjusted. I made friends very quickly. But that was not all. Our principal, Senator Buruji Kashamu operated mostly during the campaigns, from his Lagos office and his office in Ijebu Igbo. The latter is the Omo Ilu Foundation headquarters, a sprawling multi-purpose complex, sitting on about three acres, complete with a hall large enough for over 5, 000 persons, in addition to an open pavilion, offices and a row of chalets with about 20 rooms. Omo Ilu Foundation, founded in 2010, is Senator Kashamu’s philanthropic organization and political structure through which he provides help for orphans, widows and the indigent.  We either met in Lagos or in Ijebu-Igbo, and given my position as his running mate, I was constantly present at meetings and activities.  It didn’t take a while before the Senator noticed that I always came alone. I didn’t travel in a convoy. I didn’t have a retinue of hangers-on. One day, he called me aside and told me:

“Dokita, why are you always walking alone? A politician does not walk alone. In politics, you must have your own team.  You must have your own followers. You must have your own structure. I am going to help you set up your own structure and you can recruit your own followers over time. That is how to play politics. You can’t be going about alone. Politics is about people, strategy, hardwork.”   

In no time, I had my own team and till the campaign ended, I never walked alone. Bouncers, security men, campaign vehicles, a team of drivers and assistants, party associates, advisers, supporters, family friends, consultants etc. My house became a beehive of activities. In Nigeria, a politician is not expected to close his doors.  Men, women trooped in. People I had not seen in the last three years showed up. They sat in the compound, some came into the house and took over the sitting rooms. The house of a politician must have a ready supply of food and drinks. The house was soon flooded with cartons of assorted drinks. Dry gin. Schnapps, Brandy. Beer. Whatever. Some politicians insist that politics is better when it is fueled with the engine oil of alcohol. I had an inner crowd of regulars, male and female. At certain times of the day, someone will raise his hand and say: “De-pu-ty, e fun wa ni amala!  Maa-anu n –fa-gi.”  Time to eat! I never got a chance to meet this ever-hungry Maaa-nu, the apocryphal carpenter of the stomach!  

These are experienced politicians who have been here and there. Some of them have participated in virtually every major political party since the return to civilian rule in 1999. They know every key political figure in the State. If you want to know your great grandmother’s biography, she may have died in the 15^thcentury, you just join politics, you will hear stories about your ancestors who you never knew ever lived. Interacting with those veterans, I received much education about local politics. They know everyone and their habits. There was never a short supply of anecdotes about the public and private habits of prominent Ogun State politicians, their wives and concubines, children and the underground network that seems to be a strong and dominant factor in Nigerian politics. People came in and out, sometimes staying till 12 mid-night. Even if I slept off, they would stay on and have their own conversations. It was a diverse, motley crowd. They argued oftentimes, over this or that, but I admired their dedication, knowledge, experience, their energy and commitment. They have all become part of an emerging political ecosystem around my space. Only a few days away from Abeokuta, I miss them already: the women and their creativity with songs and ideas, the men and their knowledge of the terrain.  

I got a rude shock however, in December, when one of my new friends started pestering me to give him money to buy a ram.  

“Ram?  Se iyawo yin sese bi mo, e fe se ikomo ni?,” Has your wife just put to bed and you need support for the naming ceremony?, I asked.

“No. Rah – rah o, deputy, a fe fi se etutu ni.  We want to use the ram to make sacrifice of protection for you. You need some protection.” 

 What sacrifice? I couldn’t figure out what the man was driving at. But he was persistent. 

“It won’t cost you a lot of money. Just the money for the ram and something on top. You are our own Governor in Ogun Central as far as we are concerned. Many people have seen you. They are talking about you. We also have enemies within the party. There are cases in court. The party people in Abuja don’t like us. As your own people, we have to protect you. Nothing must happen to you. You can be sure the Ijebus will also protect their own son.” 

I waved it all off. December is a delicate month. That is when people use all kinds of trick to get  money for the festive season. January is even worse: school fees have to be paid in January. I told the man I was not interested in any ritual sacrifice. The blood of Jesus is sufficient for all Believers! He didn’t argue. He left quietly.  But he came back two days later, imploring me to give “Unto Caesar what is Caesar’s”. He said I should realize that Nigerian politics is like a Dinner with the Devil and that I would need to acquire a long spoon of my own if I was serious about getting a seat at the table. Before his return, another person, who described himself as a Good Samaritan, had also called to say he was bringing to me a charmed waistband which I should tie around my waist any time we were going out for campaigns. I rejected the offer. I told the man I had no plans to become a shamanist because of politics. Our conversation ended in the shape of an argument with him telling me that I didn’t know what I had put myself into. 

“Do you know what all those other people you sit down with have under their clothes? Deputy, Oju lasan ko se politics ni Nigeria yi oh. You must fortify yourself. You need ayeta (local bullet-proof charm), okigbe (protection against machete cuts) gbetugbetu (all-purpose Yoruba charm), awise afogbohun,, ma-y-e-hun (charms for commanding persons), eyonu, atewogba (charms for popularity and acceptance)…after the waist-band, we still have a lot to do. Agan ni kini yi, ko se da gbe! A jo ma gbe ni. We are in this thing together. Anybody whose friend is disgraced is the one who has been disgraced.” 

I was not scared, but I was worried that 21^stcentury Nigerian politics was beginning to sound like a return to the inter-tribal wars of the 14^thCentury. 

I wasn’t going to part with a penny for any amulet or sacrifice. I was left alone for a while. We organized political activities: visited key stakeholders, communities, arranged consultation meetings, we stormed the town and other parts of our Constituency. The women and my wife had their own group. They focused on markets and house-to-house campaigns. The only thing that worried me was that each time we went to some places, some members of the opposition will later call me to complain that they heard I was spending money and giving people gifts. I would deny of course but they would then proceed to mention the exact place, the person visited and what exactly happened. I became worried. I concluded that there was need to be very watchful. On more than one occasion, persons came to me to show me lists of voters, numbers of Permanent Voters Cards and the phone numbers of their owners. They claimed the voters were under their direct control and they could deliver entire wards and local governments.  They needed money to mobilize the owners of the voters’ cards. It sounded strange to me. I didn’t play ball.

Before long, one of my self-appointed protectors came and said he would like me to go to a church somewhere in Abeokuta. According to him, every politician had already visited the church and whatever the man of God pronounced would come to pass. I refused. If the man of God had already promised every Gubernatorial candidate, victory, why bother?  

The battle for the protection of my soul and life in politics later reached a peak when one of the initial protectors returned to say that even if we did not do anything, we needed to send Eshu on errand, and he had identified the Eshu in the Igbein quarters of Abeokuta as the most potent agent that will ensure our victory in the 2019 Gubernatorial polls. I tried to fence him off by showing off my knowledge of the Yoriuba belief system and traditions. I even chanted the panegyric of Eshu, the trickster-god, the two faced, Janus member of the Yoruba pantheon. “Eshu Laalu, onile orita, ogirimoko okunrin, a ba ni wa oran bi a ri da, elekun n sun ekun, Laaroye n sun eje…” Eshu is usually regarded as the equivalent of the Devil, but Yoruba Traditional Thought identifies him as an oxymoronic agent for both good and evil, an attribute translated as drama, form, antonym, and performance in Femi Osofisan’sEshu and the Vagabond Minstrels.  The man was not interested in my anthropological, hermeneutic analysis. I even told him that in actual fact, the most potent Eshu in Egbaland is in Imo, not Igbein and I told him… I was trying to pass a message across. The man flared up. 

“Eshu Igbein is very strong. If you give it what it wants. It will stand up and go out and deal with our enemies. It will bring us all the votes in Ogun State! It will go to every polling unit and vote.”

“Is it Eshu that will vote or the people of Ogun State? Is he a human being? Does he have a voter’s card?”, I inquired.

“Deputy, you don’t know this Eshu. After sending him on errand, you can’t come home straight. Otherwise, it will follow you. You must have a special, spiritual bath. Even then, three days later, it will still come to this house to give you a sign to show that he is already working.” 

“I don’t want Eshu to come here,” I said emphatically. 

“After he has worked for us, once you give him what he wants in return, he will go back. He is our best bet.” 

Olawale Folorunso and Bode Sowunmi who were with me and who had been listening to the argument over the proposed recruitment of Eshu as a polling agent eventually intervened. Bode Sowunmi wanted to know if the Eshu could survive in a compound with interlocking tiles and air conditioners and whether he would occupy one of our rooms. Wale thought the whole proposal was bizarre. Bode asked:

“Okay, Egbon, if you believe so much in this Eshu, why don’t you go and do the ritual and send Eshu on errand on behalf of Dr Abati and Senator Kashamu. You are a politician yourself and you are all in this campaign together. Dr says he doesn’t want Eshu in this matter.” 

“I am not the one running for Governor. I can’t spend my own money. Anybody that wants to be Governor must be ready to give Eshu his due,” the man insisted. 

I refused.