The cold-blooded murder of Hon. Ahmed Gulak, former Speaker of the Adamawa House of Assembly, former Special Adviser on Political Affairs to President Goodluck Jonathan, former national co-ordinator of the Goodluck Support Group (GSG) and former Governorship aspirant under the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is yet another tragic indication of the crisis of insecurity that Nigeria faces. It is disturbing and frightening because this was a Northern politician who had gone to the South East only to be brutally cut down by “unknown gunmen” on his way to the airport after concluding his visit to Imo State.

This was a clear case of assassination. There were two other persons with him according to reports. The assassins, true to type, identified their quarry, murdered him and didn’t bother about the witnesses. It is all the more curious because Gulak has a recent history of association with Imo State. He was the leader of the APC team that organized the controversial party primaries in Imo State ahead of the 2019 Gubernatorial elections. Gulak it was said, was under pressure to sign the papers declaring an associate and relation of the then Governor Rochas Okorocha, as the winner of the primaries. Gulak refused and sneaked out of town under the cover of night. He alleged that he was offered a $2 million bribe and a private jet. Whatever may be the circumstances that took him to Imo State this time around, he obviously also wanted to sneak out of town without drawing attention to himself.  If he had known that he was a person of interest in that part of the country, he probably would have stayed away. Or did anyone trail him to Imo State, monitored his movements and struck at a convenient spot and time? Did his assassins choose the place of attack deliberately to hide their trail, and divert attention? 

In most cases of this nature, the Nigeria Police are often so lazy, so unimaginative. They easily jump to conclusions, latching on to the most convenient lead. This explains why the initial reaction from the Imo State Police Command was that Gulak made himself a target by not asking for security escort. For us to feel safe and have a good country, it must be possible for anyone at all to move around freely in Nigeria without having to seek police escort. Section 14(2) of the 1999 Constitution states clearly that the security and welfare of the people is the primary purpose of government. Section 41 of the same Constitution guarantees the freedom of movement. Section 34 talks about the right to the dignity of the human person. These are three major areas in which the Nigerian government has failed the people over the years. Why should citizens seek police protection in order to travel from their homes or hotel rooms to the airport? If we all do so, there will no policeman left on routine duty.

The sad part of it is that we live in a country where no one is safe anymore, not even school children, students and their teachers, wives, husbands, and the ordinary man. The state is in recess. It is absent. Its institutions are too fragile to help the people. The people are like orphans in their own country. Gulak’s death should be a warning sign of how dangerously Nigeria sits on the brink of the precipice and the edge of a knife. This is why the security agents handling the investigations must learn to think before opening their mouths. In less than 24 hours after the killing, the Police not only blamed Gulak for killing himself (because he did not ask for police security! Imagine!), they also immediately concluded that bandits were behind the killing. In 24 hours, they opened a case file and closed it. This kind of beer-parlour-policing is unacceptable. I expect the Police headquarters in Abuja to take charge directly from the office of the Inspector General of Police. We have been told that the Police have since apprehended Gulak’s killers. So fast? Are the suspects in custody really the killers? Or is this a case of lazy policing?

The murder of Hon. Ahmed Gulak is bound to widen the distrust between the South and the North. The optics are bad. The signs are ominous. Gulak did not go to Imo State to graze cattle, and even if he did, he did not deserve to be murdered. It should not be surprising therefore, that his murder is being located in the growing North-South politics of difference, and the rights of every Nigerian under the Constitution. Hence, much effort has been made to ethnicize his murder, or lend it an ethnic colouration. That is the dangerous part of it, and it is the reason the Nigerian government must not treat this as just another murder. The First World War was ignited by the killing of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, on June 28, 1914 in Sarajevo by Serbian terrorists, the Black Hand.  He was the presumptive heir to the Austria-Hungarian throne. The Great War started a month after his death, and went on for four years. And over 20 million people died.  It takes only one incident to ignite others and turn embers into a huge conflagration. 

Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, Ondo State Governor, Chair of the Southern Governors Forum and APC chieftain, is right to have described the killing of Ahmed Gulak as “one murder too many” and an attempt “to instigate Nigerians against each other, particularly Northerners against the Igbo living outside the South East.” Toeing the same line, human rights activist, author, and politician Comrade Shehu Sani, member of the 8^th National Assembly, who represented Kaduna Central, has also appealed to youths in Northern Nigeria not to seek vengeance for the murder of Ahmed Gulak in the South East.  Nigeria’s civil war, 1967 -1970 was ignited by ethnic sentiments and reprisal killings. No country survives two civil wars. We all have to be careful. There is an evil wind blowing across the country. On Sunday, the Coalition of Northern Groups issued a statement to say that the murder of Ahmed Gulak is an indication that the North can no longer continue to co-exist with people of Igbo extraction inside Nigeria. The group accused South East leaders of funding the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Eastern Security Network (ESN) to cause havoc and “replicate the ugly events of 1966”.  The Northern Youths Council of Nigeria (NYCN) also called on the Governor of Imo State to produce Gulak’s killers within two weeks or risk being declared “persona non grata in the North”. This same NYCN has since toned down its rhetoric and praised the police. The volte-face is suspicious but helpful.

It is good news also that the IPOB and ESN, the militant, political and security units defending Igbo and secessionist Biafra interests have declared that they have no hand in the Gulak assassination, and that in no way was he a person of concern to them. What no one can deny however, is that the South East has become a war zone. Whereas it is possible to talk about insurgents, terrorists, and kidnappers in Northern Nigeria occupying the Sambisa Forest or what they now call, the Timbuktu Triangle, the South East of Nigeria is now the operation field of a strange phenomenon called “unknown gunmen.” Nigeria must be the only country in the world where ghosts and unidentifiable objects cause so much havoc and the state is so terribly helpless. From Ebonyi to Anambra, Abia, Enugu, Imo and every part of the South East, human beings are being killed, kidnapped, murdered, assaulted, offices and facilities belonging to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the police, the immigration service,  the judiciary are being set ablaze and all we hear is that  “unknown gunmen” are behind it all. Is there anything that is known to the Nigerian government at all?

In the last 3 days, there have been other assassinations: The Chief Provost of Nigerian Immigration Service, Imo State Command, Okiemute Mrere was murdered on Saturday night on Owerri-Port Harcourt Road. In Niger State, bandits are on rampage. They have set a police station ablaze and kidnapped persons, including 200 school children. In Ibadan, Oyo State a popular businessman, Maduabuchi Owuamanam was also assassinated on Saturday, May 29, along Mokola-Sango Road.  In Abuja, yesterday, Omoyele Sowore, leader of the #RevolutionNow movement had a life-threatening encounter with assassins in state uniform. In his own case, he lives to tell the story, asking his followers to carry on with the revolution even if he gets killed. Dead men don’t tell stories. The truth is this: nobody is safe in this country anymore, and whereas this may sound repetitive, note this:  not even the foetuses in blessed wombs waiting to join the Nigerian nightmare are safe. The country is that bad.

I knew Ahmed Gulak. We worked together in the Jonathan administration. He advised the President on Political Matters, and was later the co-ordinator of the Goodluck Support Group. In the latter capacity, he stepped on some powerful and sensitive toes as he went around the country in the lead up to the 2015 elections, and that was what led to his exit. I announced his appointment and his exit. But the Ahmed Gulak I remember, is a political man of action. He was articulate, knowledgeable and experienced. Having served as Speaker of the House of Assembly in Adamawa, and entrenched as he was in party politics, he carried himself with the aplomb of a man who had been here and there. He was friendly and approachable. In a sense, he was one of us, the boys in the Jonathan inner circle, that is the “the main body”. There were persons who were not permanently with the Principal but who wielded much influence because they had access. He was one of them. President Jonathan liked him a lot. The story of his exit will not be told here, except to say that one Governor at the time felt Ahmed Gulak had the temerity to visit his state without his permission and held meetings without his approval, and that was it. The Governor raised hell. Those were the days. I am under no obligation to say more. With his death, we have lost a man who enjoyed the art of politics and sought to excel in it. He was confident, assertive and always well turned out.  He was one of the shining stars in his part of the country. He was detribalised. His murder on the streets of Imo State is most unfortunate because that was a man who felt at home in any part of the country. Nigeria has lost a gem, and as always, it is the country that has been shot in the foot. His death should not end up as another item in Nigeria’s long list of unresolved political assassinations.

I was in Abeokuta on Tuesday, May 25, to attend the commissioning of a Press Centre at the Government Secretariat, Oke Mosan in honour of Chief Olusegun Osoba, two-time Governor of Ogun State (1992 -1993) and (1999 -2003). It is curious that the Ogun State Government since 1976 when the state was created had no press centre for journalists reporting on the activities of the state government. The main infrastructure, before now, where press meetings could be comfortably held is the Nigeria Union of Journalists Press Centre at Oke-Ilewo, opposite the old secretariat. This NUJ centre is a multi-purpose arena. It is one of the most popular Amala and Suya joints in Abeokuta! When Governor Dapo Abiodun assumed office in 2019, he promised to build a modern-day, state of the art media centre for journalists in Ogun State, to facilitate their work and promote the freedom of information. He has kept his promise. I was one of the guests.

Immediately after The Morning Show on Arise TV, on May 25, I hit the expressway. I was curious. I also wanted to honour Chief Olusegun Osoba, after whom the new edifice is named. Chief Osoba may have been a two-time Governor (Social Democratic Party and Alliance for Democracy), he may be known today as a co-founder and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), but his main bona fide is in journalism – the profession where he proved his mettle, and rose to become a living legend of the art and craft of newspaper reporting. At 82, Chief Osoba identifies himself first and foremost as a newspaper reporter.   He was the man who as a Daily Times correspondent discovered the bullet-ridden body of Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa in January 1966. He also reported the civil war. He was the only reporter of his time who had a telephone at home. He also had a Vespa scooter. He broke stories, gained many scoops and took the paths where angels of the trade feared to tread. Reporter, sub-editor, deputy editor, editor, General Manager, Managing Director from Daily Times to The Herald, to The Sketch newspaper and back to The Daily Times in 1984, Osoba’s story is well told in his autobiography, Battlelines: Adventures in Journalism and Politics which, in my view, is a must read. Osoba, first Nieman Fellow in Journalism from Nigeria, is highly revered, deservedly.

Governor Dapo Abiodun has built a befitting media work station to honour him. Even if they were not in the same political party, there is no other person more deserving of the honour.  In the past week, as Prince Dapo Abiodun marks his second anniversary in office, he has been showcasing his achievements in various sectors of the state economy and how well he has fulfilled his campaign promises and delivered on them. I was asked to say a few words at the event, and I made it clear that I am impressed. Ethnic one-upmanship is the biggest problem in Ogun State. By playing neutral and liberal politics, Prince Abiodun has been able to stay above the fray.

The high moment of the event was when Chief Olusegun Osoba disclosed that the last time he got a good reception at the Ogun State Secretariat was his last day in office in 2003. For eight years, his immediate successor declared him a persona non grata. For another eight years, another successor fought him. And yet, 18 years later, he returned to see a Press Centre being commissioned in his honour.  He said he wore an “aso etu”, a special Yoruba garment, to show how important the event was for him. Many lessons to be learnt from Osoba and Dapo Abiodun’s examples. Thank you, Governor Abiodun. Congratulations, Chief Osoba.  

PHOTOS FROM THE EVENT

The Nigerian Air Force is the youngest arm of the Nigerian military having been established only on April 18, 1964. In the course of its 57 years of operation, defending the air space of Nigeria and the country’s territorial integrity, the NAF has seen action in many theatres of operation: the Nigerian Civil war, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Mali, the Gambia and Nigeria’s zone of terror, the North East, producing in the process some of the finest officers that have served their country in the best traditions of military service. Modern warfare is no longer all about boots on the ground or physical combat. Advancements in technology and Artificial Intelligence have motivated more countries to invest more in technology, brain power and air power, in the same manner in which having a large Navy was the fashion at the turn of the 19^th Century.

 In terms of military aircraft strength, Nigeria is ranked 65 out of 140 countries in a 2021 Global Firepower Index, far behind Egypt (10), Algeria (22). Morocco (40), Sudan (51), Tunisia (58) and Kenya (59). But whereas it is generally agreed that Nigeria needs to re-tool, fund, and re-position its military, especially in the face of the spread of terrorism, the more urgent concern is the manner in which Nigerian Air Force aircraft have been crashing from the skies. The Nigerian Air Force operates Nigeria’s Presidential Fleet. Either now or in the past, whenever an aircraft under the control of the Air Force crashes, much anxiety is necessarily expressed about an arm of the Nigerian military whose motto is “Willing...Able..Ready”. The question is reasonably asked: how able or ready is the Nigerian Air Force?

Air accidents no doubt occur, and there have been over 60 of such accidents in Nigeria since 1925 when the first aircraft flew across Nigerian skies. This could be due to technical error, sabotage, inclement weather, or an act of God. Where a military aircraft is involved, conspiracy theories are generated. A quick look at the history of air mishaps involving the Nigerian military indicate until now, a pattern of occasional, even if tragic occurrences. On September 26, 1992, a Nigerian Air Force Hercules C-130 crashed just a few minutes after taking off from the Lagos Airport, leading to the death of all 158 persons on board. On September 12, 1997, a Dornier 228-212 belonging to the NAF also crashed with 10 persons on board. Nobody survived. Nine years later, precisely on September 17, 2006, a Dornier 228 military plane crashed at Vandekiya, Benue State killing 14 military officers including 10 Generals.  In August 2015, another Dornier 228-212, NAF 030 crashed in Kaduna, all seven on board died. On September 28, 2018, a Nigerian Air Force Pilot died after two aircraft crashed around Katampe Hill, Abuja, while rehearsing for the nation’s 58^th Independence Day celebrations. In each of these incidents, valuable men were lost; families were thrown into sorrow. In at least two incidents, it was widely speculated that the officers who lost their lives were victims of sinister power play within the military. Each time such an accident occurs, the public is told that investigations would be conducted and that the Accident Investigation Bureau had taken charge of the famous “Black Box”. But nobody ever shares the “secrets” in that Black Box with the public, whether the air mishap was civilian or military.     

There is however a need to insist on transparency. Air mishaps involving the Nigerian military have now become so regular, so unbelievable. The latest occurred on Friday, May 21, 2021 when a Beechcraft KingAir 350i, NAF 203 crashed near Kaduna International Airport. Eleven military officers, including the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Ibrahim Attahiru, lost their lives in that mishap. General Attahiru assumed office on January 26, 2021. He was appointed by the President along with the current Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, Chief of Naval Staff – Rear Admiral Awwal Gambo, Chief of Air Staff – Air Marshall Oladayo Amao. The Irabor squad hit the ground running, with Attahiru visiting the war front immediately to address his troops. He was a hands-on General, He had fire in his belly. His voice echoed the amplitude of his position. It was as if he needed to prove a point having been removed previously, rather unceremoniously, as Commander, Operation Lafiya Dole by the man he succeeded, that is his former boss, now retired Gen. Tukur Buratai.

With Attahiru in that ill-fated aircraft was Brigadier General Abdulkadir Kuliya, then acting Chief of Military Intelligence described by his colleagues as a detribalised Nigerian with a kind heart, Acting Provost Marshall of the Army, Brigadier General Olatunji Olayinka, Chief of Staff to the COAS, Brigadier-General Mohammed Abdulkadir, Aide-De-Camp to the COAS, Major Lawal Aliyu Hayat, Major Nura Hamza and the pilots. Flt Lt. Taiwo Olufemi Asaniyi was looking forward to his wedding. Flt. Lt. A.A. Olufade got married only two months ago! Sergeants O.I. Adesina, Umar Saidu and ACM Olamide Oyedepo also had a bright future ahead of them. Sgt Opeyemi Adesina of Iddo Community, Egbedore LGA, Osun State died three weeks after his daughter’s dedication. But now all that is ended. Gone. Flt Lt. Olufade’s father is devastated. Who wouldn’t be? Asaniyi’s fiancée has posted a touching tribute on social media. It is heart-breaking. Hopes aborted. Potentials unfulfilled.

Nigerians are outraged that the Federal Government did not handle the tragedy well. They expected the President to attend the funeral. He wasn’t there. They thought if the President could not make it, then the Vice President would show up. Here, the problem is that the Vice President can only represent the President if he is directed to do so. He cannot go on a frolic of his own without the President’s permission. The President sent the Minister of Defence, General Bashir Magashi to represent him, but this particular representative only ended up adding petrol to public anger. General Magashi could not deliver a written speech in a fluent manner. He expressed displeasure on behalf of the President. Displeasure that a funeral ceremony was taking place? He mixed up titles in a rather windy protocol list. He ruined it all by conveying “heartless felt condolences” on behalf of the President. Heartless! Magashi obviously was not prepared. He probably did not read the script. People find themselves in important positions in line with Peter’s principle and when they do not rehearse before engaging in the task of public communication, they stutter and descend to lower depths. Magashi is a lawyer and a distinguished soldier in his earlier career. But all geriatics in government who may have issues reading prepared speeches should just be allowed to speak vernacular going forward. General Magashi could just have spoken Hausa, Igbo or Yoruba and have someone translate it for him. Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba languages are officially recognized in the Nigerian 1999 Constitution in Section 55. Why struggle with the English language under difficult circumstances when you can just speak one of the three languages recognised by the Nigerian Constitution! As if that was not enough, it took the Federal Government till Monday, May 24 to direct that the Nigerian flag should be flown at half mast in honour of the dead. The gesture was so belated, it was seen as an afterthought. And then the President declared a May 24 holiday for men of the Nigerian Air Force in the middle of a war in the North East. Nigeria is probably the only country where a whole division of the Armed Forces would be directed to go on holiday for 24 hours!   

One of the spokespersons for President Buhari has offered the explanation that the President could not attend the funeral ceremonies for the fallen officers for security reasons. We have been told that the President needs 48 hours’ notice before he can move from the Villa. Are we being told that the President is now being held hostage? Or what? He is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, for crying out loud. He has an entire Brigade of Guards protecting him and the FCT. What 48-hour security clearance does the President require to protect his movement between the Villa and the National Cemetery to honour his own troops who fell while on official duty? It also took the Vice President more than 24 hours to issue a condolence message via Twitter. Was that also for security reasons? Governance is about substance, symbols and gestures. The consensus among Nigerians is that the President showing up at the funeral ceremony would have been a morale booster for the military. I think so too.

We had a guest on The Morning Show, Arise TV on Monday, May 24, Retired Air Commodore Abayomi Balogun, NAF pilot for more than 30 years. He was of the firm opinion that nobody should worry about the morale of the troops. Soldiers he said know what they signed up for. They are ever prepared to pay the ultimate sacrifice. And whether or not the President attends a funeral of fallen men, the task of defending Nigeria goes on. Commodore Balogun is a very articulate man who knows his field like the back of his hands. That was how he came across. But upon further reflection on his views, I disagree with him. Loyalty to one’s country, serving and dying for it, is not an automatic obligation. Soldiers are human beings. They also have families. They expect to be appreciated for their sacrifice. That is why recently, they have been bold enough to complain about welfare, rebel against their commanders, and post uncomplimentary videos on social media about the Nigerian military. A strong morale emboldens the soldier. We need to be more sensitive to their needs, feelings and concerns.

And this: While the big men dropped the ball, their wives picked it up. We must commend Mrs Aisha Buhari and Mrs. Dolapo Osinbajo for their empathy, compassion, and beyond the-other-room responsible citizenship. Mrs. Osinbajo, the Vice President’s wife visited the wives of all the 7 Abuja-based officers from Niger Barracks to NAF Base. She was accompanied by Senator Remi Tinubu and others. First Lady, Mrs Buhari also visited the wife of the late Chief of Army Staff. She was accompanied by her children and others. President Buhari has now made phone calls to some of the affected families. We are glad he finally got security clearance for that.

Beyond our review of responses to this tragedy, what remains is to raise questions about what needs to be done to check the crisis of repeated crashes afflicting the Nigerian Airforce. Three aircraft belonging to the military have been involved in accidents within the last 90 days, this year alone. The affected aircraft were not involved in combat. They did not crash in a theatre of war. They were engaged either in a reconnaissance operation or utility transportation. Three months ago, that is on February 21, 2021, a Beechcraft KingAir B350i plane belonging to the NAF developed engine failure on its way to Minna. It was asked to return to the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, from where it commenced its journey. It crashed on its way back. All seven personnel on board died.  On March 31, 2021, NAF Alpha Jet 475 on a reconnaissance mission was declared missing. Its wreckage was later found in Bama, Borno State. The body of one of the pilots (Flt, Lt. Chapele Ebiakpo) was found intact. The other pilot (Flt. Lt. John Abolarinwa) could not be found. Two months later, there has been no word from the Air Force authorities.

In Nigeria, accident peril is treated as top secret. This must stop. Secrecy in matters involving loss of human lives breeds distrust against the system, and promotes speculations. The May 21 crash that took the life of the former Chief of Army Staff Ibrahim Attahiru has been linked to the self-immolation, a few days earlier, by Ibrahim Shekau, leader of the Boko Haram who was reportedly cornered and ambushed by the rival Islamic State of the West African Province, and who chose to commit suicide. Could the NAF plane crash of May 21 be a form of reprisal attack? Did the Nigerian military know anything about the reported death of Ibrahim Shekau? The Presidency said President Buhari had to stay away from the funeral of the dead officers for security reasons. Is there something we should know that no one is willing to tell us?            

Whatever anyone is thinking, nobody can live forever. There will be people today who will be calling the former Chief of Army Staff, General Tukur Buratai, to congratulate him on his good luck of having been removed from office. Attahiru and his team were on their way to Kaduna to attend the Passing Out Parade (POP) of recruit officers. That could indeed have been Buratai performing the same function. That is life. Exits and entrances. Each man at his own time. But one thing: Attahiru and his crew would not have died in vain if every effort is made to check the emerging trend of Air Force planes crashing in non-combatant situations. Not even in Colombia do military aircraft drop from the skies like this! The Nigerian Government must institute an independent inquiry and review beyond the preliminary findings of the Accident Investigation Bureau which appears to be part of an entrenched culture of secrecy.

The standard response from the Nigerian military is to deny any wrong-doing. Spokesperson of the Nigerian Air Force, Commodore Edward Gabwet has said that the aircraft involved in the 2021 mishaps were all brand new. Really? Is he sure? New things can crash, yes, but how new? We would like to know. Safety is the first consideration in aviation. How safe are the NAF planes? How often are they maintained? It is not enough to blame the weather, the most convenient fall-guy in situations like this. How well does the NAF maintain its aircraft? How capable are its personnel? Is the NAF “willing…able..and ready?”

Finally, the coffins of the fallen soldiers had not yet been sealed before those interested in their positions began to jostle for space and opportunity, with stories and permutations – ethnic, class and religious – about who should emerge as the next Chief of Army Staff. It is the prerogative of the President to choose his own lieutenants. He should act swiftly, decisively and wisely. Our heartfelt condolences to the families of the deceased.    

On Tuesday, May 11, 2021, 17 Governors of the Southern States of Nigeria met in Asaba, Delta State to discuss issues of common interest. They came up with a 12-point communique in which they raised key issues about the future of Nigeria and the Southern region. This was not the first time Southern Governors would meet under the same roof. They are all members of the Nigerian Governors Forum –a pan-Nigeria Forum for all CEOs of Nigeria’s sub-nationals. There is also the Progressive Governors’ Forum which is the umbrella body of the Governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party in Nigeria. There is the Northern Governors Forum. Nigeria also has the North East Governors Forum. The South West Governors Forum. The South East Governors Forum. And the PDP Governors Forum.  

But the meeting of the Southern Governors attracted special interest for a number of reasons: the symbolism of it, the timing (at a time of serious existential crisis in the country), its bi-partisan character and the weightiness of the outcome.  The 17 Southern Governors comprise 9 Governors of the Peoples Democratic Party, seven Governors of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and one Governor of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).  Two Governors were absent – Ben Ayade (Cross River, PDP) and Gboyega Oyetola (Osun State, APC). The Governors of Imo and Akwa Ibom were represented by their Deputies. As far as meetings go, it was a successful outing, nonetheless, and one week later, there has been no voice of dissension – the Southern Governors seem to be united on all the 12 points that they raised. That there has been such unanimity of purpose is in part responsible for the furore that the statement by the 17 Southern Governors has generated.

Their submissions can be divided into two parts: the non-controversial and the controversial.  In the former category, we can group such declarations as the expression of commitment to the unity of Nigeria on the basis of justice, fairness and equity – that is more or less a familiar cliché from official quarters; co-operation among the Southern states – that is understandable; strategies needed to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic – of course, yes; the need to address the security challenges in the country – that is obvious enough, the need for the activation and establishment of ports in other states of the Federation to create new jobs and promote socio-economic activities – with Nigeria’s unemployment standing at 33.3% according to the National Bureau of Statistics, it would be difficult to fault this proposal. The problem, however, is with the controversial observations and resolutions of the Southern Governors Forum, beginning with their declaration of a ban on open grazing of cattle in every part of Southern Nigeria, their call for the convocation of a national dialogue; their demand for restructuring (state police, review of revenue allocation formula in favour of the sub-national units, and practice of true federalism) and their resolve that appointments into Federal Government agencies must be reviewed in line with Federal Character.        

The meeting of the Southern Governors’ Forum has been regarded as an affront by many Northern stakeholders. This has thrown up ethnic and geographical sentiments – a veritable indication of the fault lines in Nigeria and the inherited culture of mistrust that has been the bane of the country’s development process. The Leaders of the North and the South first met together in Ibadan in 1950. Northern Governors have been holding meetings since 1959.  Even if that has not at any point translated into any concrete benefits for the Northern masses, at no point did leaders of the South query the right of Northerners to discuss issues of interest in their region. A Southern Governors’ Forum was announced and hell literally broke loose! The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN) says the meeting of the Southern Governors is “a call for secession” and that the Southern Governors are “confused and mischievous”. Northern Leaders - Tanko Yakassai, Professor Usman Yusuf, Senator Ali Ndume and curiously enough, the Senate President, Senator Ahmad Lawan - have also faulted the position of the Southern Governors.

The sub-text of their argument is that the Southern Governors should have consulted their Northern counterparts because the issues they addressed at the May 12 meeting were of national interest. But when have the Northern Governors ever consulted Southern Governors when they take decisions about security, education, the Sharia and the development process in the North? There is an independent forum for the meeting of all Governors and that is the Nigeria Governors Forum. Governors across the country have been meeting on a regional basis and that is why we have the North East Governors Forum, and the South East Governors Forum and the South West Governors Forum, because every region has its own peculiar concerns within the Nigerian Federation. To condemn Southern Governors for meeting in that context would amount to a sheer display of intolerance and pretentious censorship. And what gives anyone the audacity to think they can dictate the format of a meeting of any concerned stakeholder-group in Nigeria?

Further, the presence of the Southern APC Governors at the meeting was considered an act of rebellion against the President of Nigeria and disloyalty against the ruling party. How? The Southern Governors asked for the support of the Federal Government to develop alternative and modern livestock management systems as a way of ensuring the ban on open grazing is upheld as declared. How is that an act of rebellion against the President?  Southern Governors also asked for a review of appointments into Federal Government agencies in line with Federal Character. They are more or less in that regard reminding the President that the Federal Character Principle is enshrined into the 1999 Constitution: Section 14(3) thereof.  It is common knowledge that the Buhari administration has been criticised heavily by other Nigerian stakeholders for gifting key positions in government to persons from his own ethnic group.

Most recently, the people of the South East protested that a decision to introduce yet undisclosed security measures in that part of the country was the outcome of a meeting which had no person of South Eastern extraction in attendance, who could have at least expressed an opinion and have an idea of the secret measures targeted at the people of the South East. The point needs to be stressed that being an APC Governor is not a wilful submission to slavery or mental lobotomy. Bi-partisanship is a civilized, public-spirit mode of politics. Membership of a political party should not turn politicians into zombies without a mind of their own. The President of Nigeria is not a monarch, even if the 1999 Constitution gives the impression that he is. Even members of his own party should be at liberty to criticize his government. Southern APC Governors attending the Asaba meeting should not be vilified. They should refuse to be intimidated. Since the Asaba meeting, I have seen reports that APC Governors in the South are being summoned to meetings, ostensibly to whip them into line. It is shameful that this is the kind of politics we play.

The decision of the Southern Governors to ban open grazing, already a matter of law in some of the states: Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti,  Ebonyi, and elsewhere has been described as illegal and unconstitutional to the extent, so the argument goes, that it is a violation of the Land Use Act and Section 41 of the Constitution and therefore a derogation of the fundamental human rights of the cattle herder.  A notable academic of Northern extraction, a good friend of mine, has also argued that before the Southern Governors can ban open grazing of cattle, they must first of all give land to the Fulani herdsman, otherwise they would be violating the Land Use Act. But this is incorrect. There is nowhere the Constitution of Nigeria talks about the exclusive rights of cattle herders. If a cattle rearer says he is entitled to land in the Southern part of Nigeria, can a farmer or fisherman make a similar claim in the North? Section 1 of the Land Use Act vests the ownership of land, in public trust, in the Governor of a State. Not even the President of Nigeria can control land in the states. He can only do so in the Federal Capital Territory. There is no law that makes the President of Nigeria and/or his kinsmen owners of the Nigerian territory. By the same token, Section 41 of the 1999 Constitution is clear enough.

Section 41 talks about the right of every citizen to move freely throughout Nigeria, to reside in any part thereof, and not to be expelled from the country or refused entry or exit therefrom. The Constitution in Section 41 does not grant the right of free movement to cattle. It refers to human beings. What the Southern Governors are opposed to is the free movement of cattle on foot, a phenomenon that has created herders and farmers conflicts with grave implications for national unity and stability. The impression that the President of Nigeria, a patron of the Miyetti Allah, and himself, a cattle owner, is biased in the matter is the key problem. In defining the emergent conflict as North-South, it is however noteworthy that some key voices in the North also agree with the Southern Governors. Umar Ganduje, the Governor of Kano State, Bala Mohammed, his colleague in Bauchi state, former Governor Saminu Turaki of Jigawa State, now, Deputy Chairman of the Justice and Equity for Peace and Unity Initiative (JEPUIN), and the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) think that the Southern Governors are right. The peripatetic movement of cattle from the North to the South and backwards is not a matter of tradition or culture or ethnicity. It is more about commerce and the best way to maximize returns on investment. The Southern Governors are therefore, calling for modernization, progress and stability.  It is again a function of where we are as a country that this has been reduced to the politics of ethnicity.        

The Southern Governors are also calling for a national dialogue and restructuring and this is considered rebellious? There is no harm in having a dialogue. We can talk from now till 2023, but from our experience, how many people pay attention to dialogue or are ready to have a conversation? Nigeria, most unfortunately has reached a point where persons, groups, constituencies, or communities believe that their own version of reality is the only possible interpretation. For a country that gained independence and emerged as a Republic through dialogue and negotiations, this new reality is tragic. Communal leaders have lost control. The government has lost the people. The people have lost trust in government. The country has lost direction. Non-state actors have filled the vacuum. Nigeria is now at a point where non-state actors can declare openly that there will be no elections in 2023 because they will not allow it to happen in parts of the country. Bandits and terrorists now share palliatives to the people and they are enthusiastically embraced. Thugs have become local heroes. Pastors no longer preach hope and endurance. They preach anarchy and ask the Congregation to have a Plan B. Citizens in successful countries do not have Plan B. They are committed to the land of their birth. Nigeria falters.  It has become fragile, because it is a country in search of committed citizens. To worsen matters, the word restructuring has become a cliché in popular parlance. It means too many things to many people.    

On the question of national dialogue, what does it matter if people insist that they would rather talk than fight? But notably, one major objection to the idea of another round of national dialogue as currently shaped, came from the South. Mike Ozekhome, SAN holds the viewpoint that there is no point spending so much money organizing another national dialogue when the last one in 2014, of which he was a participant, had already raised all the cogent points that the Southern Governors believe will move the country forward, to wit: the devolution of powers, review of revenue allocation formula, state police and the need for restructuring. Ozekhome defends the outcome of the 2014 National Conference. He believes it could have marked a new beginning for Nigeria and the search for a new way forward.

It is unfortunate that the same conference gathers dust in the people’s memory. Nobody should be surprised if the paper on which it is written is now being used by road side hawkers on the streets of Abuja to sell roasted corn and groundnut.  The reason has nothing to do with the common good but the politics of ego and difference. Whatever is wrong with Nigeria is well known and had been debated before now. The courage to do what is right by the people is what we miss.  

The organizers of the Southern Governors Forum can pat themselves on the back, despite it all, that they got the attention they wanted. What do they expect?  All the Governors of the Southern part of Nigeria coming together under one roof is in itself enough “act of provocation” and surprise, in the eyes of those who understand that the country is truly at a precipice. What is required is a little push and yet nobody wants to go down in history as the catalyst for such an end-game moment. All of a sudden, even the National Assembly is divided. Southern lawmakers have all aligned behind the Governors of their part of the country. Northerners are supporting their own region as well, with the exception of a few. Not even before the Civil war (1967 -70) was Nigeria this clinically polarized along geographical lines. This proves a point: Nigeria is in need of redemption, rescue, and leadership. Those who think otherwise are enemies of the people.  

“Bros, how country?”

“Omo, we live in perilous times. Ilu le. Country bad.”

“I agree with you absolutely. It has never been this bad in peace times”

“You think Nigeria is at peace? If you call this peace time, then what exactly does war look like? For me, the country is at war already. Nigeria is at a tipping point. I visited my Aunty the other day and I was telling her how politicians are already preparing for 2023, her response shocked me, because she is ordinarily an optimist.”

“She said…”

“She said we should pray to get there first as a country before we can begin to talk about elections in 2023.”

“Hmm. Let us pray if that gives us psychological relief, but I know my country. Nigeria will always survive. When the storm rages and it looks like the country is teetering on the brink, and Armageddon looms in the horizon, somehow Nigeria always pulls back, and finds its feet.”

“I hope so. I pray so too. But I assure you this country is at war. War. War can go by any other name but it is still war. Symmetric war. Asymmetric war.  You know what Yorubas call it? Ogun abele. Rogbodiyan. Ruke rudo. Airoju airaye. Ogun gbon misi Omi o to”

“That is civil war.”

“Okay. Whatever. Translate it as you wish. What I know is that what is going on in the country today is worse than the civil war of 1967 -1970. During that period, the war was concentrated in one part of the country. The Nigerian soldiers that fought to defend the country knew the location of the rebels. International diplomacy was involved. In the end, peace reigned, even if 51 years later the war against Igbos is yet to end.”

“You can say that again. But do you know what my big fear is, following your line of thought? Can you see that the South East is becoming another theatre of war?”

“Yes. I can see that.”

“The government of Nigeria appears to be making the same mistake in the North East about 12 years ago and it got a monster called Boko Haram in return.”

“I can see that”

“History is about to repeat itself, this time in the South East. And what do I mean? You will recall that Boko Haram became a problem shortly after the killing of one Mohammed Yusuf. The Police at the time said he was trying to escape from custody and so, they gunned him down. The reprisal attacks by his followers has now turned the battle into an endless war, that has spread from the North East to the Middle Belt, to the North West, the South West and the South East. Now, in the South East, there has been no peace since they killed that guy Ikonne. Abi na Ikonso of Awomama Village? The war commander of the Indigenous People of Biafra. Deputy to Nnamdi Kanu. IPOB and Commander of the Eastern Security Network (ESN. They have  have  turned him into a hero.”

“I hear they have even named the Imo State Government House after him. Apparently, IPOB now runs an alternative government in the South East. Naming a Government House that they do not control after one of their leaders.”

“IPOB is a proscribed organisation but it remains very active and untouchable. My suspicion is that many leaders of the South East support IPOB and the ESN. Have you seen any prominent Igbo man coming out to condemn IPOB? They all want to retain their positions of privilege inside Nigeria, but they are not ready to condemn those young Igbo boys who are helping them to continue the civil war and keep the Biafra ideology alive.”

“That is what our country has become. Sad. A country of ethnic militias. The Hausa Fulani have their herdsmen. The Yorubas have their Amotekun and the Oduduwa Nation gang. The Igbos have IPOB and ESN. The South South is for now, the only peaceful part of the country. But when those ones start and add their trouble to it, that will be the undoing of Nigeria because the South South is where the country’s food basket is.”

“The country’s food basket is in the North.”

“You don’t get the point. Oil is Nigeria’s major revenue earner. If militants in the South South join the madness, nobody will be able to prospect for oil in the South South, not even in the deep offshore. Nigeria will have no revenue. The oil majors will shut down and run away. Chaos will follow. There will be no Christmas trees.”

“But to go back to the earlier point about another Boko Haram front emerging in the South East. I noticed that since the murder of Ikonso which the Nigerian Army and Police celebrated, the East has not known peace. There have been attacks on police stations. Attacks on offices of the Electoral Commission. Abduction of students and innocent citizens. Even a prison was attacked in Owerri and the inmates were set free.  It looks like there will be no quick end to this. At a point, we were told the Governor of Imo State had to run away to Abuja.”

“Oh, yes. I actually heard from reliable sources that many state Governors no longer stay in their states”.

“But something tells me Igbo militants will not like to turn the East into a theatre of war and get their own people killed.”

“You don ‘t know what you are talking about. This kind of war does not obey normal logic. Many of the boys involved in it are well educated, exposed and far more ideologically oriented than their fathers and grandfathers. You should not expect them to adopt the tactics of 1967.”

“Are you saying IPOB is behind the mayhem in the South East then? What I hear is that it is the handiwork of unknown gunmen”

“Yeah. Unknown gunmen. Just like unknown soldiers. Unknown policemen. Unknown civil servants. In a country of ghosts. You are free to believe the fiction they feed you with. Enjoy the illusion.”

“So what do you think can be done to nip the situation in the bud.”

“What are you nipping in the bud? The security crisis in Nigeria has gone beyond the bud. It has grown flowers and fruits. Nip ke?

 “And to think I voted for President Buhari in 2015 and again in 2019. Now I pity the President and I am so sorry for myself. I feel like crying.”

“Omo, wake up! This matter has gone beyond President Buhari.”

“How? The buck stops at his desk. He is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. He campaigned to address security challenges and we all trusted him to do it given his antecedents.”

“Ër bergi. Leave sewage for LAWMA. Kayamata no good for ugly girls. There is a way the buck will stop at a President’s desk and he won’t know what to do. Have you not seen that President Buhari is now appealing to terrorists to calm down? He used to talk tough. “We will crush them. We will deal with them. No stone will be left unturned”. Baba Bubu don change tone oh. Na beg him dey beg now. Last Friday, he even appealed to local leaders to advise their youths not to work against Nigeria. Before then, he complained that some people are mercilessly sabotaging every government policy. He even begged the Americans for help.”

“Oh, God. The Nigerian situation has never been so scary as it is today. But the President and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces cannot become a motivational speaker when the people are dying daily. He should leave motivational speaking to Fela Durotoye and Pastor Paul Enenche. He should not spoil their market.”

“What else do you want him to do? On April 27, he asked for the assistance of the United States. He told US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken that the US should relocate the African Command in Stuttgart, Germany near the Theatre of Operation in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea, but the US Pentagon has now blinked at that request. They say the US cannot afford it and that Nigeria opposed the idea of AFRICOM in 2007.”

“Well, of course, the US will blink at the idea and that is beyond Secretary Blinken. The US is primarily interested in its own strategic foreign interests. It may have been a good idea in 2007 to locate AFRICOM in Africa. But 24 years later, the world has changed and America’s interests have shifted.”

“But the US European Command is also in Germany. Why take the African Command there?”

“Bros, America will decide what is in its best interest.  No country does Father Christmas diplomacy. The only country I know that does Father Christmas International Diplomacy is Nigeria.  To address the challenge of insecurity, Nigeria must help itself, even while foraging for external help. The government of Nigeria has a responsibility to protect the people. It is the very minimum that any government can do.”

“My view is that the time has come then for President Buhari to set up a War Cabinet.”

“What is that?”

“Simple. I am not saying he should change his Ministers. I know some of them are your friends and you will not like to miss the muna muna you get from them.”

“These ones? Na Araldite government oh. Shishi dem no dey give. Before you ask sef, dem go tell you say nothing dey. Nothing. Nothing. But na dem dey chop pass.”

“Na today? But my point really is that the President should set up a National Defence Council that will meet on a daily basis, do a regular audit of the security situation in the country, and advise government accordingly.”

“You just want to create another problem. Before you know it Femi Falana and co will say the Defence Council is illegal, unconstitutional, null and void and therefore of no effect whatsoever. And they will threaten to go to court. They will say it is a duplication of the functions of the National Security Council.”

“No. I don’t think so. The strategy for security is different from the strategy for war.  And a National Defence Council is not illegal. It is not unlawful. It is in the Constitution. Check Section 153 of the 1999 Constitution. Check the Third Schedule of the same Constitution.”

“What does the Constitution say? Tell me about it.”

“Tell you what? This is the problem with you Nigerians. You all have Holy Books, the Bible and the Koran which you carry about 24 hours. You have the Bible at home. You have it in the car. You have it in the office. When you return home in the evening, you read the Holy Book, pray with it, and keep it under your pillow to protect you from witches, wizards and village people. Many of you even go about with talismans: a small copy of the Koran, the rosary, and anointing oil. But the Constitution of Nigeria, the same document that elected Nigerian leaders use to cheat and abuse you, a document that spells out your rights, you don’t have it, you don’t read it, you don’t know your own rights and yet you complain. My friend, go and buy a copy of the Constitution.”

“I am not a lawyer. Why should I read the Constitution?”

“You read the Bible. Are you a Pastor? You read the Koran. Are you an alfa or Sheik? The same way every Holy Book is available to everyone: Bible or Koran, it is the same way we all have the right to know the laws that govern us.”

“Do you want to tell me about this your war strategy or not?  Don’t let us deceive ourselves, please, there is no difference between the National Security Council and a National Defence Council. It will still be the same dem dem. These guys have no answer to our problems”.  

“I agree. But my other point is that this moment calls for national unity. We all have a role to play.”

“In principle yes, but have you heard that the Federal Government wants to reduce the cost of governance and that the starting point is to cut the salaries of civil servants?”

“What madness is that?”

“The statement was credited to the Minister of Finance and Budget Planning, Zainab Ahmed.”

“Come, do they now add small marijuana to Shisha?”

“I can’t answer that question. I am not in a position to know what combination the Minister of Finance takes and whether or not she even takes Shisha.”

“We are thinking of how to achieve peace and stability and some people want to cut salaries? What do they want to cut? The same minimum wage that many states have refused to pay? The same minimum wage that can not buy a bag of rice? A Kongo of rice is now N1, 000. If government cuts salaries, they should expect that other things may be cut too, along with such a stupid decision.”

“Like what?”

“Like the heads of stupid people. Na so revolution dey start! What happened to Oronsaye Report? Why not cut all the leaky buckets in government? Cut the cost of governance. In the midst of this COVID-19, headline inflation is now 18%, food inflation is 23%, unemployment is 33.3%.  It will be the height of madness to cut people’s salaries. Abi I dey craze?”

“Come to think of it, yes. You don kolo. Kolo- men- tal. But you mentioned COVID-19. I hear the Federal Government has now imposed new restrictions. The Presidential Steering Committee has decided that effective from Tuesday, May 11, all event centres and night clubs should remain closed till further notice. Weddings and religious gatherings can be held at 50% capacity of the venue. Meetings should be held virtually.”

“My honest opinion, I think the intervention does not go far enough. They should tell us more about what they know that we do not know. Especially now that we are hear armed robbers are now attacking the Presidential Villa and Pastors are telling the Congregation to have an escape Plan B. Armed robbers don enter Aso Rock oh!”

“Like seriously? No. No. No. Bros, you make it sound like Nigeria is finished. I am done with you. May 11 is the 40th anniversary of the death of that absolute genius, Bob Marley. Can you listen to one of his evergreen songs and calm down? Good cure for this madness.

Fr Ejike Mbaka, Spiritual Director of the Adoration Ministry, Enugu attracts controversy the way flies are attracted to dung. He is completely unfazed about it. He comes across as a priest who does not mind what Pope Francis once referred to as “the sin of scandal”. Last week, Fr. Mbaka stirred the hornet’s again when he announced to his congregation that he had changed his mind about President Muhammadu Buhari, or perhaps he had received another message from God to the effect that if Nigeria’s President Buhari does not resign for failing to find a solution to Nigeria’s problems, he should be impeached. This came as a rude shock to many. Fr. Mbaka was a staunch supporter of President Buhari and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2015 and 2019 general elections. He used his pulpit to campaign for the APC. In 2015, he openly opposed then incumbent President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan and his wife, Patience Jonathan. He would later claim that an attempt was made on his life. Mbaka wields enormous influence in the Eastern Region of Nigeria. He runs a personal ministry, more of a personal business which he calls Adoration Ministry which deploys a combination of the Scriptures, combined with faith healing, theatrical, spell-binding tactics, metaphysical hallucinations and a bit of shamanism to hypnotize an attentive audience. In a country where poverty is widespread and the people are looking for Salvation on earth and in the hereafter, anyone who is able to offer a combination of these elements is bound to be a celebrity. And Mbaka is. He is a celebrity. Something of a Rock Star!  But where and when did he and his APC friends part ways? He did not really say anything earth-shaking or original, but coming from him, a Buharideen and an APC apologist, the weight of his new revelation attracted the right measure of attention.

In the past few days, we have been treated to a tit-for-tat between the Presidency and their Enugu-based star-gazer. Presidential Spokesperson Garba Shehu did not allow the saliva in Mbaka’s mouth to dry up before issuing a statement to state that Mbaka, the Catholic priest is not what he projects himself to be. Shehu gave an account of how Mbaka once visited Aso Villa to see the President with three contractors in tow. He wanted contracts from the Federal Government of Nigeria. But the President directed that due process must be followed. Garba Shehu, an experienced spin-doctor thus used Mbaka to score three quick points: (1) that Mbaka is a businessman in priestly garment and an influence peddler; (2) that his so-called prophesies are at best personal opinions depending on his calculations of likely benefits and (3) Mbaka should be grateful that when he visited the Villa, the Presidency was kind enough not to expose him by publishing his photographs.

Garba Shehu was not alone. Yekini Nabena, the Deputy National Secretary of the APC also found it necessary to advise Mbaka to desist from making statements that could destabilise the country, and if he fails to do so, he would be reported to the Vatican. Nabena even quoted the Bible to remind the Catholic priest of his priestly obligations and the Example of Christ. Beyond the Villa and the APC, other Nigerians waded in, including Reno Omokri, the self-confessed “Buhari Tormentor” who accused Mbaka of hypocrisy and further sent “An Open Letter to Pope Francis” to draw his attention to the delinquency of one of his priests in Nigeria. The Department of State Services has also since reminded religious and political leaders to eschew divisive politics, because the Nigerian state will not hesitate to defend the country against all forces of destabilization.   

Clearly, the Nigerian government is embattled and it is not ready to tolerate additional pressures from any quarters. Even the World Press Freedom Day statement that was issued by the Presidency yesterday, May 3, while expressing commitment to free speech and the freedom of information, condemned licentious freedom, and gave a small lecture on responsible journalism. And it does not matter whether you were once a friend like Fr. Mbaka, the priest or Eedris Abdulkareem, the artist. The other week, Eedris Abdulkareem dared to criticise the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Festus Keyamo, SAN in a new album. Keyamo promptly released text messages between him and Eedris in which the musician begged the Minister for money to pay hotel and hospital bills, in exchange for his support for the Buhari administration. This may be a new tactic. Nobody should be surprised if one of these days state officials release images of some vocal critics eating jollof rice and fish bone as Nicodemus guests at the Presidential Villa.

But Fr. Mbaka is taking it all as they say, on his chest. He is practically making a mockery of the reactions to his statements.  He says it is stupid “to be attacking a messenger of God” and that yes, he took three white men who are contractors, who asked for his assistance, to the Villa, so what? They were asking for security contracts for themselves, not for him, and they didn’t get the contracts, so what? He accuses the Buhari government of not having “ä reward mechanism”: “All the people they have been giving contracts, are they better than me? Am I begging them, do they know how many people I fed? Fortunately, they reported that they denied me of the contract – which contract? …They have shown that they don’t have what we call reward mechanism. If Shehu is a human..I don’t even know who the Shehu is. He should be apologising that they have not come down to say Nagode Allah for surviving what they are passing through. The last person this administration should fight is Father Mbaka talking here because if they speak against me, the anger of Heaven will be upon them and their end will shock everybody…”

This is really a different kind of priest.  It is not beyond him to rain down curses like confetti at a wedding! I find his response naïve and contradictory, and strange, given the fact that the Catholic Church traditionally provides their priests the benefit of a sound education and clerical training. He is not the first Catholic priest to be controversial or outspoken in recent times. Recently, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah of the Sokoto Catholic Diocese pointedly accused the Buhari government of nepotism. The government and its agents hemmed and hawed. There were threats that Kukah will be expelled from Sokoto. But in the end, nothing happened. Kukah has since then delivered more stinging homilies and public lectures on the state of the nation. They have learnt to leave him alone. Nobody accused him of bringing contractors to the Presidential Villa. Fr. George Ehusani is another prominent Catholic Priest. He succeeded Kukah as Secretary General of the Catholic Secretariat. He is not afraid to express his mind. He is consistent and blunt. He sings. He preaches. He runs a public-spirited NGO on Leadership. Nobody has disturbed him because he does not phone politicians or government officials to ask for favours. In Ewu, Edo State, there is Fr. Anselm Adodo, the Benedictine Monk who is pushing the frontiers of Alternative Medicine and Epidemiology at the Pax Herbal Clinic and Research Laboratories. Fr. Anselm is so busy with research, he probably does not know where the Government House of Edo State is. To go higher within the hierarchy, John Cardinal Onaiyekan has been in the business of speaking truth to power before Mbaka gained admission to the seminary. Nobody has ever accused him of drinking tea with a cup belonging to the Nigerian government.

There is also Ignatius Ayua Kaigama, former Archbishop of Jos who is now the Archbishop of Abuja. No contractor, white or black, would ever dare ask him to wear his cassock to go and lobby for contracts. But Mbaka is truly different. He is the priest of “reward mechanism”.  His public persona is that he is a Catholic priest of election seasons. He is a one-man Electoral Commission that can predict election results or anoint Gubernatorial candidates.  In 2015, he reportedly rejected money that was donated to the Adoration Ministry by the Jonathan administration. One of his proclaimed achievements is that he correctly predicted that Senator Hope Uzodinma would become Governor of Imo State through the Supreme Court. But now, Uzodinma no longer picks his calls. He was also once a friend to former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani. It didn’t take long before they quarrelled and the Oracle of Adoration began to see new visions. In December 2018, former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi apparently did not understand the meaning of “reward mechanism” when he attended an annual harvest and bazaar celebration at the Adoration Ministry. He was accused of being “stingy.” Mbaka attends road commissioning ceremonies. Only the God he worships knows how many contractors he has taken around the South East in search of contracts.

The Diocese of Enugu, to which Fr. Mbaka belongs has often disclaimed his remarks as his personal opinion. The Catholic Bishops Conference has also always warned against the promotion of partisan politics in the context of Mass. But Mbaka appears untouchable. Reno Omokri, who is himself a preacher of the word, has reported Mbaka to Pope Francis. But Mbaka is thoroughly amused. He tells his critics: “Ïf Rome hears that Father Mbaka is challenging evil governance, Rome will clap for me, so quickly go to Rome…” He is probably amused because he knows that those rushing to the Vatican may not know how the Catholic church system works. The Pope does not get directly involved in the disciplining of priests. Under the Code of Canon Law, it is the responsibility of the Congregation of the Doctrine of Faith which deals with crimes of an ecclesiastical nature committed by priests. But the Rules stipulate that the local church must take the first step in disciplining a delinquent priest, and outcomes of investigations and conclusions can then be forwarded to Rome. Omokri’s petition will be referred to the local church in Nigeria. Will the local church act? Does Mbaka’s Bishop see anything wrong in what he does? Is his Adoration Ministry so rich and so supportive of the Church that not even the Catholic Bishops Conference can apply the essential norms? The problem is probably not Mbaka, but the Catholic Church of Nigeria and its leadership. Mbaka’s style is also probably environmentally determined. He has received words of encouragement from Nnamdi Kanu of the Independent Peoples of Biafra Organisation (IPOB). Ohanaeze Ndigbo has also publicly supported him. Nnamdi Kanu even said Mbaka also has the right to change his mind like Sheikh Isa Pantami! In Nigeria, religion and ethnicity provide ready cover-ups for anything.

Mbaka represents an emerging face of the Church, a living embodiment of the rise of utilitarian capitalism in the Church of Christ, and the conflation of priesthood with hedonism. Catholic priests were known ordinarily as persons who had taken the Oath and dedicated their entire life to service and prayers. They disconnect from earthly pleasures. Riches do not mean anything to them. They are happy to commit to the task of salvation. It is therefore most shocking that a priest like Reverend Mbaka as far back as 2016 was described in one report as the owner of a Ministry within the Catholic Church, the Adoration Ministry, which he runs as a personal “business”. When he was asked to move from Christ the King Parish, Enugu to Our Lady of the Rosary Parish, Emene, his main concerns were the assets of the Adoration Ministry and the fact that he would “suffer.” This new tendency of priests who do not want to suffer, who would rather choose the hedonistic life, explains the new character of the Church. Priests no longer get enough financial support. Priests now want to own estates. They drive exotic cars if they can. They want to travel First Class too. They argue that even St. Paul had a business on the side that gave him extra income. Hence Mbaka can tell the Presidency: “...do they know how many people I feed?” We are in the age of billionaire priests who run business empires. With the offertory no longer generous, since members of the congregation are mostly poor, and in need, some enterprising priests can no longer rely on their meagre stipends. They are creating businesses and opportunities in the name of God to live well, and to support others and whenever they can, take care of the Bishops too. They have forgotten that the Lord Jesus was born in a rented manger. He was buried in a borrowed tomb.  

Where is the Church? In November 2014, Pope Francis gave an interesting homily on this same subject at the Saint Martha Guesthouse at the Vatican.  His focus was the Gospel of Luke. He said that “there are two things that the people of God cannot forgive: a priest attached to money and a priest who mistreats people.  This they cannot forgive! It is scandalous…” Quoting the Gospel of Luke, the Pope recalled how Jesus turned tables and drove away people who were selling inside the church: a sacred place of prayer which had been turned into a business place. He added: “Ï think of how our attitude can scandalize people with unpriestly habits in the Temple: the scandal of doing business, the scandal of worldliness…It is scandalous when the Temple, the house of God becomes a place of business…” The Bishop of Rome has certainly not yet heard of the Nigerian phenomenon. Everyone who has had cause to comment on the Federal Government and Fr. Mbaka’s saga, including Yekini (!), has been quoting the Bible. Let me add this passage from the Gospel of St. Mark, Chapter 11: 15-17:

“Then Jesus went to the Temple and began to drive out those who bought and sold in the temple, and overturned the tables of the money changers and the seat of those who sold doves. And He would not allow anyone to carry wares through the temple. Then He taught, saying to them: Is it not written, my house shall be called a House of prayer for all nations? But you have made it a den of thieves.”  This is the word of God to us.  May the Lord bless His Word...

“Omo, wetin dey shele. What’s gwan man?”

“Helloooo. Are you okay?”

“Yeah, yeah, my bro”

“Can you speak English? I don’t get your drift. All these your what’s gwan, and yeah, yeah, I hope you have not gone to take your thing again. If you want to engage me in a conversation, then speak straight English and stop saying yeah, yeah….”

“Bros, you sef, you too dey do. Who cares anymore in this country?”

“Ï do”

“This country don kpeme”

“What is that?”

“Country no level”

“Excuse me?”

“Ëverything don scatter scatter, Nigeria don jaga jaga. Na where we dey be that oh”

“Ï see you are a fan of Eedris Abdulkareem. Festus Keyamo will soon come after you. Have you not seen how Keyamo came after the musician for attacking and ridiculing the Buhari government? He exposed the young man as a hypocrite who is criticizing government because Keyamo did not give him money to pay his hotel bills and his mother’s hospital bills too. All these your social critics by day, and hustlers by night.”

“Na lie. Eedris sef don reply Keyamo. And Twitter don remove Keyamo’s tweets.”

“Please. Please. If you insist on speaking pidgin, I will end this conversation.  I don’t engage in beer parlour talk.”

“Änd who told you pidgin English is beer parlour English. It is a major West African lingua franca. A major contribution by colonized peoples to the evolution of the English language. It represents the Empire speaking back whether you call it patois, creole or pidgin. But let’s leave that matter. I think we should go beyond Keyamo vs Eedris Abdulkareem. This is not about personalities, really. Eedris begged for money. Keyamo did not give him. Eedris asked to be sponsored to support the Buhari campaign. Keyamo thought he was an extortionist. Fine. I don’t want to focus on personalities. I am happy for Eedris Abdulkareem. He has been off the musical scene for a while. Now that he has dropped just one album, everywhere is shaking.  We should focus on the message of his music. Eedris Abdulkareem has shown a capacity to use music as a weapon of protest. The rebuttal by Keyamo is just an aside.”

“Festus Keyamo also has a right to defend himself. He was accused of being a member of the cabal.”

“Änd what is the problem if Eedris says so. He merely stated the obvious. In fact, it is a compliment to be referred to as a member of the cabal in Nigeria. Isn’t that what all of you want to become? Common Keyamo wey all of us dey chop rice and dodo together for Anthony Village don become Nigeria cabal. Him suppose dey happy. Him suppose know say Eedris dey do him own cabal job too with his music. Instead, he begin talk about money wey no miss.. He even publish text messages sef dey sound like say heaven wan fall. Er begi.  Because of how much? A whole Senior Advocate of Nigeria.”   

“Can you translate that into correct English, please?”

“Dey there dey form. I think this Ikoyi wey you dey go everyday don dey affect you. You no dey hear our slang again. Whatever Eedris Abdulkareem did right or wrong in the past should not be held against him. That is what I am saying. Simple. He was a young man when he begged for money and asked to be mobilized to support Buhari. Like Isa Pantami, the Sheik Minister of the Federal Republic, he has now recanted. He has seen the light. And he has conveyed his position through music. Jaga Jaga Reloaded. We should listen to him. He should be allowed to have his say. Na today? When Eedris released the original Jaga Jaga album in 2004, the Obasanjo administration was so angry, they banned the song on radio.”

“So what is he saying this time around?”

“I will advise you to listen to the song. My kind of music. Yes, you may listen to all these artistes who do techno music. Sound without sense. But I prefer music that makes sense. Eedris is simply saying that the country is hard. This country is hard. Nothing has changed since 2004. In fact, the situation in Nigeria has worsened. President Obasanjo may have been angry with Eedris Abdulkareem in 2004, but today, Obasanjo is a Nigerian hero. Seventeen years later, Obasanjo’s Nigeria looks in retrospect like a shade of Paradise for the average Nigerian.  And so in this remake of Jaja Jaga, Eedris Abdulkareem calls Obasanjo his father because him sef know say country don change. He collaborates with Mr. Raw, and Madarocha Chi to sing about bad governance, police brutality, the October 20, 2020 moment of crisis at the Lekki toll gate and the suffering in the land. He calls for restructuring and federalism. He speaks for us. Jaga jaga eh, suffer, suffer eh.. everything scatter scatter eh… Yeah mon.”

“Hmm. Hmm.”

“You get the point now?”

“To be honest, Ï get the point.  Eedris Abdulkareem, Mr Raw and Madarocha are speaking for the Soro Soke (Speak Up) generation. But I hope Eedris will not again suffer his 2004 fate. Radio stations could be banned from playing the song. But I guess he and his collaborators are right. Nigeria is in a tough place at the moment. Can you imagine what happened over the weekend? Governors of the South East and the Ohanaeze Ndigbo had to meet to discuss how the Governors of the South East, all five of them can be protected from the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the group’s militant wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN).  When state Governors, who are constitutionally described as Chief Security Officers of their states are no longer safe, then what can ordinary people do?”

“Ordinary people have become victims of banditry, kidnapping, terrorism, ritualists, and scammers. Once upon a time in this country, criminals used to steal money and personal belongings. Today, in Buhari’s Nigeria, it has become more profitable to steal human beings! Nobody is safe. I won’t be surprised if one of these days, a sitting Governor is abducted and the state is asked to pay ransom before he is released.”

“Ï want to guess that the first Governor that is likely to be kidnapped will be Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State”

“Why? Do you hate the man that much? No. I cover him with the blood of Jesus”

“Cover him as much as you want. Have you not seen the statement by IPOB and ESN? After the killing of Ikonte Commander, the Vice President of IPOB, and six others, at Aworama Village, Emma Powerful, speaking for IPOB and ESN issued a statement accusing Governor Uzodinma of colluding with the Nigeria Police, the military and State Security Services to kill their men. Extra-judicially. The same day, Uzodinma’s country home was set ablaze. His expensive Rolls Royce vehicle was damaged. One of his security guards was killed. He was told he should be prepared for the IPOB sting. I wonder how the man can still govern Imo State going forward.”

“He will govern, I beg. Which Emma Powerful? Have you not heard that Channels TV has been suspended by the National Broadcasting Commission because they interviewed this same Emma Powerful? What power does he have? Some people should not be allowed to go about just causing problems no matter how hard the country is”

“Channels TV? No, I missed that. But if it is true, that’s pure rubbish. Are we in a dictatorship regime?”

“You can ask me again. They say it is a democracy”

“I don’t support any attempt to harass and intimidate the media. The job of the media is to air all shades of opinion. It is in the interest of the government that the media does so. It is the best way to collect and curate open intelligence. No media house should ever be punished for promoting the democracy of opinions. When a government begins to repress public opinion, it is a sign of desperation and confusion. The NBC may have been misquoted.”

“Ï don’t think so.”

“But as you well know, we have been through this route before. Media houses in Nigeria are used to the adversarial character of government and state actors. Since 1859 in fact.  But somehow, you can treat the media whichever way you like, the truth is that journalists will always outlive every government. They will be the ones to have the last say. They can build you up, but they can also pull you down. I advise the NBC to apply its rules with caution and wisdom. Things are bad enough, adding media repression to the Nigerian crisis is unhelpful.”

“But it is your brothers and friends that are in charge””

“Ï am not discussing personalities. Let’s focus on issues.”

“I hear you. But there are also people who think the Nigerian media is part of the problem. Journalists are always putting pepper and salt in everything. Country hard like this. Journalists go dey put petrol. Too much sensationalism. Government’s position is that the media should help government. But no. They will go and carry enemies of the state and put microphone in their mouths. I am sure if Shekau the terrorist wants to grant interview tomorrow or announce a World Conference, Nigerian journalists will be the first to get there. They will carry microphone and say they are doing their job.”

“News is news. News is what happens. Government has no right to determine what is news. You can’t blame journalists for doing their work. And don’t forget that the role of the media is constitutional. Sections 22 and 39 of the Nigerian Constitution recognise the rights of the media as watchdog, and the citizen’s fundamental right of free speech. So, whatever Emma Powerful says, let the government deal with it. Why are they fining and suspending Channels TV? How about Igbere TV where more critical statements are made on a daily basis? Even Igbere TV should be allowed to serve the people without hindrance.”

“But all of that should be within the ambits of the law. No country will allow a lawless media institution. That is the whole point about regulation.”

“The whole point is about freedom of speech”

“There are no absolute rights”

“That is not what we are dealing with here. Musicians cannot sing. Journalists cannot speak to people. Where are we? Idi Amin Dada’s Uganda?

“You want to hear the truth?”

“What truth?”

“The truth is that the Nigerian government does not respect, and does not trust the Nigerian media. They think most Nigerian journalists are like Eedris Abdulkareem. Friend today. Enemy tomorrow. Too many journalists looking for contracts, and money, running from one government office to the other to grab consultancies, or brown envelopes, or handouts. And yet they talk to enemies of the state.”

“That is libelous. You can get sued for group libel. People should stop blaming journalists. Fix the country.”

“Come and sue me”

“I fear for Nigeria”

“Ï pity my country”

“My big fear is even the fact that Nigeria is now surrounded by a ring of evil. There is crisis in Chad. Their president Idris Deby Itno is dead. There is very febrile succession politics in that country.  Under Idris Deby Itno, Chad provided some kind of buffer zone for Nigeria, Libya and the Sahel region. If that country implodes, Nigeria will be in serious trouble. The Libya-nization of Chad will add to our woes. Niger is also unstable. Nigeria may have helped to install a new President in that country but we can suffer for doing so, particularly with the dubious role France is playing in Chad and Niger. Cameroon next door is also troubled. The Republic of Benin is another zone of uncertainty. We have trouble at home. We have crisis abroad.”   

“Let’s deal with the trouble at home first.”

“You don’t see the connection?”

“Ï am not blind. I see it. But let our leaders begin charity at home before they begin to worry about other people’s problems. The big problem with Nigeria is that we tend to take pain-killers for other people’s problems while overlooking the cancer at home. Who does that?  This is how you people send policemen to Somalia to help stabilize Somalia whereas there is no stability at home. We go everywhere giving others what we don’t have at home. We even refine petrol abroad and set up refineries in other people’s countries. I don’t get it.”

“What you don’t get is that the world is now a village.”

“I am not into slogans. I understand the point about global solidarity. But nobody should take Nigerian money to go and stabilise Niger and Chad or create employment in other countries.”

“We are the giant of Africa”

“Hey, Hey. Mr Giant. In one part of your country, the entire North West, 618 schools have been shut down in five states because of the lack of safety in schools. Many students do not want to go back to school. Over 10, 000 students are in Boko Haram captivity according to one Governor from that part of the country. Parents are anxious and depressed. For the past one month, 29 students of the College of Forestry Mechanization, Afaka, Kaduna State have been in the custody of bandits. Three students of Greenville University have been murdered. Two more yesterday. The whereabouts of the remaining 35 who were kidnapped along with them remains unknown.  What do you say to their parents? The entire South East is in a state of war. The South West is suddenly at war with the same Hausa-Fulanis who have lived in the region for centuries. Boko Haram has just taken over a whole town. Geidam in Yobe state. Your security chiefs are busy wearing fine uniform in Abuja. Your country’s unemployment rate is 33.3 %. Headline inflation is 18.17%. Food inflation is 23%. Your country is the second most unelectrified country in Africa. My heart aches.”

“Mine too. I have nothing to say other than to quote Chinua Achebe.”

“The problem with Nigeria is leadership”

“He also said there was once a country”

“So Eedris Abulkareem, the rap artist is right then. Keyamo misses the point.”

“Let’s say the two of them are doing their job. This life is a hustle. Every man according to his stomach.”   

Most of the politicians whose names have been mentioned in connection with Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election, either as a hopeful or an aspirant would readily tell you it is too early to talk about the next election. Don’t buy that. They are lying.  The race for the next Nigerian elections began immediately the last general elections ended. The politicians are at best hedging their bets. Perhaps for this reason: The two major political parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are busy watching and spying on each other. They have so far refused to announce their zoning formula, but even with all that talk about merit and competence, both parties will still adopt a zoning principle at all levels.

The way I see it, the questions to consider are as follows: Will the Presidency be zoned to the North, the East or the South? The people of the South East have already stated clearly, and they are not joking about this, that the only way to ensure equity, fairness and justice is to allow the Presidency go around the six geo-political zones before anyone begins to reject zoning. Meanwhile, what we have seen across the country’s six geo-political zones, are persons who have been testing the waters, flying kites, engaging in whispering campaigns, auto-suggesting the future of Nigeria. I intend to devote some time to a deconstruction of the emerging trends, particularly in the South West where members of the APC have made it clear that there is an outstanding Memorandum of Understanding within the party dating back to 2014/2015. The understanding is that after President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, the Presidency will be zoned to the South West. Key political figures in the South West wing of the APC are relying on this promise and agreement. Who are they? What is the state of play? Will the APC keep the promise? My preliminary reading is as follows:

The most dominant name, figure and player in South West politics, at the moment is Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Jagaban of Borgu, former two-term Governor of Lagos State, the man who led the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) into the alliance with Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the new PDP, a faction of APGA  and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to form the APC, the Special Purpose Acquisition Company, that grabbed power by hook or crook from the PDP in 2015.  Tinubu is a national leader of the APC. The big elephant in the APC room is that he, the well-known Godfather, wants to be President in 2023. His posters are all over the country. Yesterday, I saw one of those posters proclaiming his 2023 Presidential ambition around the Ikoyi-Lekki link bridge in Lagos. And I was like: really, so this thing is true? A few days earlier, social media was awash with images of small bags of rice with Tinubu’s image being distributed in parts of the North. His spokesperson says he has nothing to do with that. Just the handiwork of benevolent volunteers who are distributing rice, in the godfather’s name, in the spirit of Ramadan.

Before that particular monkey business, Tinubu was also shown cosying up to the North; his 69^th birthday colloquium was held in Kano, and he has been seen, lately, trying to be more Northern than the average Northerner. Tinubu’s alleged Presidential ambition has driven up hypertension levels across regions. But his ambition if it exists, is unpopular. Not even his own Yoruba people have bought into it despite the pretensions of a vocal minority. I really don’t think Asiwaju Tinubu wants to be President, nor will he be. In the course of his political career, he has made more than enough enemies and acquired more than enough baggage, stepping on toes, and playing the role of a Grand Architect. If he steps forward to grab the Crown, he faces the prospect of being told ugly and unpleasant stories. My view is that Asiwaju Tinubu is savouring the talks about his possible Presidency just to re-establish and reinforce his own relevance. In case some people have forgotten, he more or less single-handedly handed over the South West to President Buhari in 2015 and 2019. He is today the only person in the South West who can stand up to the same North to remind other elements in the APC of the MOU that was signed when he decided to lead the South West to support Buhari and keep him in office. He wants to remain relevant and have a voice in determining who becomes President in 2023. His greatest strength is in identifying and building talent. He is exceptional in that regard in contemporary Yoruba politics.

The only problem is that other Nigerians would not want to hand over Nigeria to him so he can run it with the same kind of totalitarian grip that he has over Lagos. His Presidential ambition, for that reason alone is dead on arrival. His strength is his hubris.  But once he achieves his goal of remaining relevant and being the go-to-person in the South West, he will be fine, and that is all I believe he can get.  Tinubu’s so-called Presidential ambition is all about tactics, so finely honed that anybody who wants to be President from the South West cannot side-line him. With the noise made so far about his imagined Presidency, Tinubu appears to have already checkmated every other likely aspirant from the South West. But that may not be the true picture of things.  

There is Vice President of Nigeria, Professor Yemi Osinbajo. He has been facing his assignment as Vice President dutifully, doing only what they allow him to do and keeping his head slightly above water. In six years of being Vice President in a cabal-dominated environment, he is beginning to look like he has learnt his lessons. However, there are persons who think that he is President Buhari’s safest bet as a successor. He is not likely to probe the Buhari administration for sure. That would amount to self-immolation. The way the Buhari government has played its game so far, if power gets into the hands of an adversary, every member of that government would have to leave town or prepare to go to jail. There are forces and elements waiting to expose and humiliate President Buhari the moment he leaves office and they are wielding all kinds of weapons: their pens, laptops, tongues and smart phones. An Osinbajo Presidency will naturally serve as a bulwark against that, to the extent that a President Osinbajo is not likely to betray his boss. There is also the view that Pastor Adeboye once predicted that a member of his church would one day rule Nigeria. Could he have been referring to Osinbajo? But there are problems: Osinbajo is a teacher of letters, the law and the word of God. He doesn’t have a political base of his own. It is too late for him to create one. He is therefore, completely, a creation of Tinubu’s political machinery. If Tinubu is genuinely interested in becoming Nigeria’s President, I don’t see Professor Osinbajo challenging his former boss and benefactor. He can try but he won’t succeed. If Tinubu backs him however, he will be a main player. If Buhari supports him also, then he would have received divine anointing.  His Redeemed Church politics may however count against him/

There is also Senator Ibikunle Amosun, former Governor of Ogun State. His name has been mentioned as a potential President of Nigeria from the South West. Amosun has been Senator twice representing Ogun Central. He has also been a two-term Governor of Ogun State. He has both bureaucratic and legislative experience. He also spent his initial years as a key player in the private sector, so it can be said of him that he has quality and broad-range experience. He, Tinubu, and Osinbajo are not likely to be tongue-tied at an international conversation forum whether on radio, television or in person. But Amosun’s biggest obstacle is that his fortunes depend almost entirely on President Buhari. He is Buhari’s man and friend. Can President Buhari make him President? I am not sure. There are forces in Amosun’s immediate constituency that will fight tooth and nail to stop him. Tinubu. Osoba. Gbenga Daniel. Dapo Abiodun. And others. Besides, Amosun’s main constituency is Abeokuta where he has proven to be a loyal son of the Realm. A Nigerian President of whatever regional extraction will need a lot more than village support. He is also a Muslim like Tinubu and Buhari. That could be a problem.

There is also Kayode Fayemi, the current Governor of Ekiti State. Some people tell me he is the man to look at if the APC zones the Presidency to the South West. Like Amosun, he has been Governor twice in his state of birth. Like Vice President Osinbajo, he is well educated.  He has also been a Minister of the Federal Republic in charge of Mines and Steel Development. He can write, talk, and hold his own in international circles. He has a Ph.D in War Studies. And Nigeria just happens to be at war. He is also the only one who does not have the kind of baggage that the others carry on their backs like the curse of Atlas.  Fayemi has not said he wants to be President, but there are persons pointing in his direction. I tell them he is my friend and brother and that he has one of the best wives anyone can get who will make an excellent First Lady for Nigeria. In Ekiti State, he has put up a great performance. He is also unencumbered compared to the others from his zone. But people don’t become President because they have everything in place, from “the other room” to the public sphere. Will Fayemi no longer be part of the conversation when he ceases to be Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum? Is his Chairmanship an advantage? My take is that the biggest challenge to anybody’s Presidential ambition in the South West today is Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.  He won’t be President.  But will he also be allowed to determine Nigeria’s future? And unfortunately. we are all bound to revisit that perennial controversy about religion and ethnicity.

I was at the Ebony Life Place on Adetokunbo Ademola, Victoria island, Lagos on Sunday, April 18, to attend the Nigerian premiere of the award-winning film, Eyimofe (This Is My Desire): My first visit to that events centre in a well-appointed neighbourhood in Victoria Island, established by the television mogul and cultural entrepreneur, Mo Abudu, and my first major trip to a cinema in more than a year. COVID-19 has turned us all into recluses. With everyone masked up, you have to imagine the identity of the person before you, by over-relying on voice or mannerisms. The screening of Eyimofe provided an opportunity to reconnect with others.

I had heard about the film, produced by GDN Studios, a movie and documentary arm of The Guardian newspapers, midwifed by Toke Alex-Ibru and Mrs Maiden Ibru - an attempt to broaden the scope of The Guardian, and fully explore the manifold possibilities of media expression in an age of convergence. The film has won many awards including - the Golden Gate Award New Directors Prize at the San Francisco Film Festival (SFFILM), the New Directors Competition Grand Jury Award at the Seattle International Film Festival; Winner, ‘Best Fiction, New Filmmakers’ at the Sao Paulo International Film Festival; winner, Achilles Valdosta Award at the Torino Film Festival. For a film that made its world premiere last year at the Berlin International Film Festival in 2020, Eyimofe has had an impressive run. It has also featured in film festivals in Germany, the UK, Spain, Brazil, Austria, Scotland, the UAE, Canada, USA, Greece, Egypt and China. It finally made it home last Sunday. Home is Nigeria, the cultural and social landscape that feeds the narrative, as well its photography, scenery and cinematic progression. Is it not worrisome that films produced by Nigerians, telling our stories, have to make international rounds first before they finally make it back to their roots, the same country that has given the world Nollywood, but which nevertheless, lacks strong incentives and enabling environment for creativity? Nigeria’s achievement in the creative industry is driven more by the passion, creativity, enterprise and incandescent talent of a few who enjoy what they do within the industry and relish the meaning that they find. Eyimofe proves the point. It is a tribute to creativity, talent, and entrepreneurship: the deft blending in this respect accounts for its success.

This is more remarkable because it is not a commercial film in the sense in which that term has been abused. It is a powerful psychological drama about the existential struggles that man endures as he tries to make sense of reality, strengthened or made more vulnerable, by his or her capacity to remain optimistic and forge ahead despite every odd that fate and circumstances project. Eyimofe’s story is every man’s story. Mofe, a factory worker and technician, the main character and Rosa, a hairdresser, believe like many Nigerians that going abroad is the best passport to better life, away from the squalor and poverty at home. But then life happens. Eyimofe loses his wife, son, and nephew due to poisoning by generator fumes.  More woes pile upon agony. We follow Eyimofe through the journey of his becoming: death, grief, burial, family relations, but in the end, true meaning exists in the same environment that he and Rosa had planned to abandon. There are moments of cultural dissonance, but far more gripping is the photography, the choice of locations and scenery which convey the sound and shape of the Nigerian condition. Haunting, telling imagery abound in this film where silence is as loud as the spoken word.

As a directorial debut for the Esiri twins (Arie and Chuko), there is more than a promise on display. Further enrichment with musical scores could have lifted the mood and rhythm but this is a work of remarkable accomplishment. It pushes us into a reflective mode: what constitutes success? What is the true meaning of life? How much of it is within our control or beyond us? About two hours long, Eyimofe opens to the general public from April 23.

We were later treated to an after-party at the rooftop of Ebony Place: a classy, clean, accommodating, well-put together centre, just like its owner, Mo Abudu. I am impressed. I will return. 

The removal of former Inspector General of Police, Mohammed Adamu by President Muhammadu Buhari 27 days to the end of the three months extension that the President granted him on February 4, is now seen by those who opposed that extension as a vindication of their position.  The official excuse at the time was that the President needed a period of three months to look for a proper replacement. or as Minister of Police Affairs, Muhammad Dingyadi put it, to “ensure a smooth handover”. This was pooh-poohed as a sign of absent-mindedness and sloppiness on the part of government. Adamu’s date of retirement was well known, and in line with standard practice, he must have served notice of his retirement. The Police Act states clearly that the age of retirement for a serving officer is the age of 60 or 35 years in service or whichever comes first. This is on all fours with Civil Service Rules and Regulations. How on earth then would any one claim that more time would be needed to find a replacement? Adamu enlisted in the Nigerian Police Force on February 1, 1986. Senior Advocates of Nigeria – Femi Falana, Mike Ozekhome and Ebun Olu-Adegboruwa and others waded into the matter and argued loudly that the law does not contemplate a situation whereby a retired police officer will be appointed the Inspector General of Police and that effectively, Adamu’s continued stay in office meant that Nigeria did not have an Inspector General of Police. The Federal Government had its way. Adamu remained in office.

But the Nigeria Bar Association went to court. The lawyer representing the NBA, argued that Adamu’s continued stay in office was in contravention of Section 7 (3 and 6), and 215 (1)(a) of the 1999 Constitution and Section 18(8) of the Police Act and hence to that extent, the extension of his tenure was unlawful, null and void. The lawyers representing the NBA asked the court to direct Adamu to stop functioning as the IGP of Nigeria. Before the NBA suit, there was also a suit, with similar prayers, filed by Maxwell Opara Esq. Nigerians were however shocked when the now erstwhile IGP engaged the services of his own lawyers who purportedly argued that it is the President’s prerogative to hire and fire within the purview of Section 171 (1-6) of the 1999 Constitution, and hence nothing unlawful had been done and that in fact IGP Adamu’s tenure would not end until he has served for complete four years because the Police Act 2020 defines the tenure of an IGP to be four years.

Adamu became IGP on 15 January 2019. The new Police Act 2020 was signed into law by President Buhari on September 16, 2020. The fact that laws do not have retroactive effect is one of those elementary things sophomore law students understand. But here in the Adamu case, senior lawyers had the temerity to stand that principle on its head as an argument.  In the NBA case, the Federal High Court has since fixed April 16 for judgement in the suit, after parties to the case adopted their written addresses. But with the removal of IGP Adamu on April 6, that case has now become mute and academic. The same Section 171 (1 – 6) that Adamu’s lawyers quoted in part, has now been used to “fire” him. I hope Adamu would not make the mistake of saying he would challenge his removal in court because these days, you never really know. There are many ambulance-chasing lawyers out there who would take on any brief and offer legal advice that fly in the face of the law and common sense. The Nigeria Bar Association should look into that. And while it is useful to test the law, judges must be firm in rebuking counsel who approach the courts with frivolous and vexatious cases that constitute an attempt to waste the time of the court.

As for former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu, would it not have been better if he had taken his exit, most honourably, on February 1, the exact date he was supposed to leave service after 35 years?  He could claim he was not in a position to disobey the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and President of Nigeria. but how about the greedy part of him that came forth, with the argument by his lawyers that he could stay in office till 2023? Wherever he is at the moment, he must be disturbed by the embarrassing manner of his exit last week. He was treated so shabbily he deserves our sympathy. But he is not getting any sympathy. The former IGP was on active duty in Owerri, Imo State where a group of yet unidentified gun men practically sacked the entire state and instilled fear into the people. In Owerri, they attacked the prison and set over 1, 800 inmates free. They burnt down vehicles at the Police Headquarters. They made an attempt on Government House. They later attacked police stations in Mbaitoli, Orlu, and Ehime Mbano and other LGAs.

The audacity and the impact were devastating. In neighbouring Abia state, the state Governor had to take a precautionary and pro-active step to impose curfew on two major cities of Umuahia and Aba.  The South East was literally turned into a battlefield. The then IGP blamed the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the Eastern Security Network (ESN) for the attacks. IPOB and ESN disagreed with him. They rejected the attempt to link them to the attacks. The former Inspector General of Police had gone to Owerri for an on-the-spot assessment when his removal was announced. Nobody alerted him. He left Owerri without the authority of the office that took him there. What makes it all sad and ugly is that Mohammed Adamu is now more likely to be remembered as the police chief who presided over police brutality, the #EndSARS melodrama, the failure of the police to ensure the safety of lives and properties under his watch, and as the police chief whose tenure was unlawfully extended and who eventually got disgraced out of office. Future Inspector Generals of Police should learn from his humiliation. It would not be wrong to say that he left the Nigeria Police Force worse than he met it.

Adamu’s successor: Usman Alkali Baba has since assumed office as the 21^st indigenous Inspector General of Police. Unfortunately, this new IGP is starting off on a more controversial note. By appointing him, even if in an acting capacity, a number of questions have been raised – (1) about religion: why another Muslim as IGP of Nigeria, and (2) ethnicity: why does the President appoint only Northerners as IGP since 2015? and (3) competence: who is Usman Baba, what has he achieved? What is so special about him? and (4) abuse of due process: why does the President appoint Inspector Generals of Police without the involvement of the Police Council as stated in the Third Schedule, Section 215 (2) of the 1999 Constitution?

Religion remains a very sensitive subject in Nigeria. Muslims do not trust Christians and vice versa. The dividing line between the two major faiths in Nigeria has never been so sharply drawn as is now the case. Ethnicity is also a problem. President Buhari has been accused of a Northernisation and Islamisation agenda by his fiercest critics. Each time he makes an appointment, they draw attention to the religious and ethnic affiliation of the appointee. His aides have tried to debunk this but they have been most unsuccessful in getting the critics to change their minds. In governance, perception often times is more enduring than actual substance. However, with regard to the appointment of the IGP, it is a matter of fact that since 2015, all the three IGPs appointed by President Buhari have all been Muslim-Northerners: Ibrahim Idris (2016 – 2019); Mohammed Adamu (2019 – 2021) and Usman Baba (2021 - ). It has also been argued that the North has produced more IGPs than the South since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Well, that is not true. The South since 1999 has produced six IGPs (Musiliu Smith, Mustafa Balogun, Sunday Ehindero, Mike Okiro, Ogbonna Onovo and Solomon Arase). Before now the North had five IGPs (Hafiz Ringim, Mohammed Dikko, Suleiman Abba, Ibrahim Idris and Mohammed Adamu). Usman Baba is the sixth from the North. There you have it: it is now 6 -6.  However, it seems to me that given all the concerns expressed about the South East and the marginalisation of the region, it would have made more sense to appoint a South Easterner as Nigeria’s new IGP. Or are there no Igbos in the top hierarchy of the Police? Since 1999, only two Igbos have made it to that top position (Okiro and Onovo). An Igbo IGP at this time would have been a wise choice.

On the question of competence, Usman Baba has impressive credentials on paper. He holds a Masters degree in Public Administration.  He was until his appointment, the Deputy Inspector General in charge of the Criminal Investigation Department at the Police Headquarters. Before then, he served as Force Secretary. He has also been Commissioner of Police in Delta State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), and AIG in Zones 4, 5 and 7. When I reel out these credentials, the question most people ask is: And so? What exactly has he done?, they ask. A significant proportion of the people that Usman Baba is expected to serve express doubts about him. His media team has a lot of work to do. He himself has a lot more to do.

The remaining question is due process. The new IGP was appointed without any recourse to the Police Council. The President, after a fashion, took a unilateral decision to appoint Usman Baba as the Inspector General of Police of Nigeria. The problem continues to repeat itself in this regard. It is not enough to rely on Section 171 of the Constitution. No section of the Constitution exists in a silo. The Constitution should be read conjunctively, and here Section 171 stands in relation to Section 215 (1)(a) and Section 216 (1) of the same Constitution. The Police Council is the highest policy making body for the Police. It is a creation of section 153 of the 1999 Constitution. The Police Council has the President as Chairman, with all the 36 State Governors as members. The whole idea is that an Inspector General of Police appointed by the Police Council based on the recommendation of the Police Service Commission would understand the gravity of his mandate, and get the message that whereas he reports to the President, state governors, who may have no control over police operations  are nevertheless, major stakeholders in the task of policing the country.

The reduction of the Police Council therefore, to a rubber stamp assembly, if and when it suits the President is in part the source of the “powerlessness” of Governors in their relationship with the Nigerian Police. Besides, there is really no indication that the Police Service Commission had a hand in the appointment of this new IGP. Members of the Police Service Commission apparently just heard the news on radio like everyone else. This abuse of due process, when measured in terms of costs, is a great disservice to the nation. It amounts, as counsel to NBA in the Mohammed Adamu case pointed out, breaking the laws of the land.

Usman Alkali Baba has assumed office at a very difficult time. There is widespread insecurity in the land. The police are ill-equipped and under-staffed. The people do not trust them. Police men themselves are “at war” with the same people they are paid to protect. It is not for nothing that police reform, police restructuring, or the creation of state police is part of the on-going Nigerian debate. It is most unfortunate, however, that IGP Baba has not shown any early signs that he understands the gravity of the problem he faces. On Friday last week, he reportedly held a meeting with “strategic zonal commanders” of the Police – whatever that means!  He told his men that his priority is to “rejig police operations nationwide”. With due respect, this new police IGP should resist the temptation to turn the mouthing of “platitudes” into a habit. Nigerian security chiefs out of a lack of imagination and perhaps the narrow scope of their vocabulary tend to use the same phrases annoyingly: “rejig”, “architecture”; “operational rules”.  Buba says he wants to “leave a legacy of policing with human face”. The way they abuse these words, we may need to launch a campaign to stop them from using words that either they do not understand or that mean nothing.    

In about 48 hours after his assumption of office, IGP Usman Baba was presented with something to worry about when the five South East Governors and a few Igbo leaders at the end of a meeting on security in the South East declared the establishment of a security group to be known as “Ëbube Agu”. Nigerian Governors must be fascinated with animals, and their skills. In the South West there is a security network named “Amotekun”, the Yoruba word for Leopard. In the South East, “Ëbube Agu” means the glory or greatness of a Lion. In 2020, when the same South East Governors had tried to set up a regional security outfit like Amotekun in the South West and Shege Ka Fasa in the North, the erstwhile IGP told them to bury the thought. In December 2020, the Indigenous People of Biafra, the group led by Nnamdi Kanu and other non-state actors established the Eastern Security Network (ESN). What would be IGP Usman Baba’s response to “Ebube Agu”?  The timing of the initiative is striking. The South East Governors did not even give Baba enough time to settle down in his new office. Given the worsening security situation in their region, they stand on a high moral ground.

But the details are fuzzy.  “Ebube Agu” is nonetheless a fine case of the people trying to help themselves, a commentary on the failure of Nigeria’s centralised Police and an indication that state Governors are not as helpless as they claim to be in managing security.