I want to thank the organizers of this 60^th Birthday Anniversary event in honour of Balogun Akin Osuntokun for inviting me to say a few words about the themes of consistency, in relation to public intellectual advocacy and to focus on a Nigerian Case Study. In doing so, I join others in congratulating the celebrant and subject on his attainment of the diamond jubilee. I cannot think of another case study as the departure point for my commentary than Akin Osuntokun himself, although an inquiry into the nature of the ideas industry in Nigeria with specific emphasis on public intellectual advocacy would be incomplete without additional illustrations of the role of others in that nexus between culture, politics and society which is the province of the operation of the public intellectual as opposed to the strict academic intellectual and writer, who is burdened by the demands of  specificity and disciplinarity. I make no clear cut distinction in this regard, however, and the reason for this will be clear in a moment.  Ahead of this particular occasion, I had written a tribute to Akin Osuntokun in my weekly back page column in the ThisDay newspaper (see “Akin Osuntokun at 60” by Reuben Abati, December 14, 2021) which is a reflection of my knowledge of him as a person and a portrait of his life as I know it. The present commentary can be taken as a further reading of the subject, but within the specific context of his exertions in the public domain. I seek to raise questions and navigate the subject.

The literature on the subject of public intellectualism suggests that there is no clear, single definition of who a public intellectual is, might be or become, in the same sense for example in which we talk about a carpenter or a tailor. This absence of specificity speaks to a certain diversity and plurality, with regard to context, range, and the central figures that have featured in the ideas industry in different parts of the globe. Every public intellectual is to be understood in the context of the role that he or she plays or the theatre of his or her engagement. Hence, Edward W. Said, the Palestinian-American scholar wrote that “the definition of who or what a writer and intellectual is has become more confusing and difficult to pin down.” What does it mean for example to be “public”? Does that suggest the idea of a private intellectual?” The public is an open space. What part of the public? And who is an intellectual? In many political and cultural contexts, the word “intellectual” indeed attracts a negative connotation, if not adversarial revulsion. It is not a job, except perhaps you are an academic intellectual working in a research environment, and yet it is possible to be academic and not public, and to be a public intellectual and be academic, or provide ample primary material for academic work.  Thus, there are many uses of the word “intellectual” and attitudes towards it. Edward Said sees the intellectual as a “critical outsider”.  Jean Paul Sartre considers him “a person of action”.  Michael Waltzer, the American political theorist sees him as a “caring insider.”  Akin Osuntokun fits easily into each of these definitions, an indication of the scope of his engagements in the public space.

Whereas definitions of meanings and labels may seem academic, there seems to be very little confusion with regard to the role that the public intellectual plays in society, beginning with the production of ideas, and the creation of what Amitai Etzioni calls “communities of assumptions”, that is assumptions about how society should be organized in a more utilitarian and beneficial manner. The contribution of the public intellectual is to question received assumptions, create new ones, by asking questions again and again, about public policy and cultural constructions. Public intellectuals provoke debates through books, essays, and commentaries. They do not speak to a narrow audience, not to an expert audience that understands only technocratic jargon, but to a larger community of men and women who are interested in moving society to a higher level. The public intellectual’s tool is thus therefore, disruptive thinking. He is an agent provocateur, an advocate and at the same time, an activist, holding a magnifying glass unto society. The trajectory of human society, its growth and character, owes largely to this form of intervention and disruption encapsulated in Wole Soyinka’s affirmation that “the man dies in all who keeps silent in the face of tyranny” or Nelson Mandela’s example. In more contemporary times, the face of the public intellectual has changed significantly. The democratization of the information space and the rise of the age of convergence simply means that unlike the public intellectual of past centuries, today’s public intellectual can engage through a multiplicity of platforms – books, the pulpit, lectures, speech-making, television, radio or even internet blogs. This means an expansion of influence and reach. Today’s public intellectual is an authority, but this in itself generates conflicts with established authority figures, whose attempts at weaponizing power and position are unmasked by men and women of ideas. Many public intellectuals are brands and celebrities as well.  

But how do public intellectuals establish their authority, spread their ideas and influence the way we think and act? The topic for this presentation as sent to me already provides a clue: “consistency” and a clear indication that this must be in the arena of “advocacy”. But why should consistency be important? Being consistent is about commitment, courage, and a sense of being human, devoted, and ready to make necessary sacrifices. The classical definition of this would seem exemplified by the totality of Nelson Mandela’s symbolism encapsulated in his famous declaration:  “For my own part, I have made my own choice. I will not leave South Africa, nor will I surrender. Only through hardship, sacrifice and militant action can freedom be won. The struggle is my life. I will continue fighting for freedom until the end of my days.” (June 26, 1961). Consistency in public intellectual advocacy confers brand, identity and authenticity. But it is not every public intellectual that lives to the end of their days. Seeking to challenge orthodoxies through struggle, direct action, ideas and insider participation comes with risks. Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Roman orator and philosopher had his tongue freed from his body. His head was severed for speaking truth to power and for having the temerity to challenge “constituted authority.”

The dilemma of public intellectualism invariably defines its scope and relevance: more liberal societies tend to be more appreciative of ideas and those who produce them. Closed societies, under the grips of conquerors, dictators, “constituted authorities”, and tyrants naturally suppress the people’s free will and those who claim to be intellectuals. In January 2016, I wrote an essay in The Guardian (Nigeria) titled “Where are the Public Intellectuals?”  My theme was what I referred to as “the decline of public intellectualism”. Permit me to quote a little from that essay. I wrote:

“Something sad has happened and is happening and is happening in our society: the decline of public intellectualism. And so I ask: where are the public intellectuals? Once upon a time in this country, the public arena was dominated by a ferment of ideas, ideas that pushed boundaries, destroyed illusions, questioned orthodoxies and enable societal progress. Those were the days when intellectuals exerted great influence on public policy, and their input into the governance   process could not be ignored. Ideas are strong elements of nation-building, and even where interests are at play, you know the quality of a country by the manner in which a taste for good thinking propels the leadership process. Public intellectuals are at the centre of this phenomenon: they include academics who go beyond their narrow specializations and university-based scholarship to take a keen interest in public affairs and who use their expertise and exposure to shed light on a broad range of issues. They also include journalists, writers and other professionals who question society’s direction and offer alternative ideas. The beauty of public intellectualism is that the intellectual at work is a disinterested party, he is interested in ideas not for his own benefit but for the overall good of society and he does not assume that his opinions are the best or that he alone understands the best way to run society and its organs. The product of this attitude is that discourse, a culture of debate, is encouraged and in the cross-pollination of ideas, a good current of thought is created, truth is spoken to power.”      

I have had cause to take a second look at those words. When I said “once upon a time”, I was somewhat nostalgic and was probably referring to a period in Nigerian history that could be regarded as “the best of times” in the public space, but even that would be correct in only strictly relative terms and as a measurement of how as of 2016, Nigeria had gradually become a dangerous place to express an opinion or project oneself as a public intellectual. There was a uniformity of thought, a submission to authority, group thinking and the hijack of instruments of expression by a monied, political elite that was frightening. The seeds of the present tension may well be traced to those early beginnings.  “The once upon a time” , in my reckoning, was to a season of ferment when the university campuses bubbled with ideas and the Nigerian Left provided thought leadership. The universities were a melting pot for ideas as the gown fulfilled its own idea (to borrow John Henry Newman’s contextual usage of that phrase) by showing interest in the town and how the fortunes of both town and gown could transform or derail society.

Across the country, many Nigerian scholars and others went beyond disciplinarity to test research ideas in the field of action. In Ahmadu Bello University, we had Bala Usman and Patrick Wilmot, in University of Lagos: Professor Ayodele Awojobi, Ebenezer Babatope.. at the University of Ibadan: Peter Ekeh, Bolaji Akinyemi, Bade Onimode, Comrade Ola Oni, Femi Osofisan, Niyi Osundare, Bode Sowande.  At the University of Calabar: Eskor Toyo, Ingrid Obot-Essien, Herbert Ekwe Ekwe, Edwin and Bene Madunagu. At the University of Ife: Wole Soyinka, Biodun Jeyifo, Ropo Sekoni, Uzodinnma Nwala, Godwin Godini Darah, Segun Osoba, Kole Omotoso, at the University of Port Harcourt: Claude Ake, Chidi Amuta. University of Benin: Festus Iyayi, Tunde Fatunde…

Civil society was no less vibrant from the labour movement to the creative industry and civil society organizations: Mokwugo Okoye, Wahab Goodluck, Hassan Sunmonu, Gani Fawehinmi, Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, Beko Ransome-Kuti, Arthur Nwankwo, Rear Admiral Ndubusi Kanu, Alao Aka-Bashorun, Olisa Agbakoba, Clement Nwankwo, Commodore Dan Suleiman… And in the media: Sad Sam Amuka Pemu, Gbolabo Ogunsanwo, Stanley Macebuh, Odia Ofeimun, Herbert Ekwe-Ekwe, Essien Effiong, Godwin Sogolo, Dapo Olorunyomi, Nosa Igiebor, Onome Ovie-Whiskey, Dare Babarinsa, Kunle Ajibade, Dele Giwa, Ray Ekpu, Dan Agbese, Yakubu Mohammed, Olatunji Dare, Chinweizu, Niran Malaolu.. I left out the clergy: Bishop Bolanle Gbonigi, Rev. Adetunji Adebiyi, Rev Fr. Matthew Hassan Kukah, Fr. George Ehusani, Fr. John Uba Ofei, Archbishop Olubunmi Okogie, John Cardinal Onaiyekan. Before the more contemporary examples, Nigeria’s colonial and early post-colonial history was littered with examples of men and women who were either thought leaders or public intellectuals, and whose contributions made significant difference. The academic distinction between thought leadership and public intellectualism does not need to detain us, here. As we can see, society is moved forward by a combination of influencers and public-spirited figures from diverse backgrounds, playing a mixture of roles.

I raised the question in 2016, because it was the moment when the decline of public intellectualism in Nigeria was most apparent, in my view, although much earlier in 2006, Jimanze Ego-Alowes had written a book titled “How Intellectuals Underdeveloped Nigeria and Other Essays.” In 2010, Rudolf Okonkwo wrote an article titled “The Comedy of Our Public Intellectuals.”  I went further:

“In addition to other reasons, it may well be that our intellectuals are tired of engaging Nigeria. Having tried over the years to engage the governance elite with ideas and to show that only good ideas should govern society and having been spurned by the politicians, Nigeria’s intellectual elite seems to have become so frustrated, it has retired largely into a state of indifference and inertia. What is the point knocking one’s head against a wall? But intellectuals in society cannot take such a stand. That will amount to an abdication of responsibility: when intellectuals do no more than make righteous noises, the harvest in the long run, is counter-productive.” 

I gave some other reasons including the existence of a climate of fear and the hypocrisy of the power elite and the seeming disappearance of a culture of reason, opinion and debate. It may be necessary to define, even if preliminarily, what may be responsible for the oscillation between active advocacy and reticence, between action and fatigue in the social structure of public intellectualism in Nigeria. Our first concern is how Nigeria continues to consume its own intellectuals. Once upon a time in this country, that familiar phrase, again, university teachers were sacked and there was a so-called environmental sanitation exercise the system targeted at those lecturers who allegedly “were busy using government time and resources to teach what they were not paid to teach!” The Nigerian system never recovered from that campus cleansing by the military. Over the years, the Nigerian public space has been driven by a culture of anti-intellectualism, tightly knit into the fabric of every public process. Admittedly, there were times when the military and the civilian authorities tried to embrace and co-opt public intellectuals into the public process. There have been success stories in that regard. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, Professor Ibrahim Gambari and Professors George Obiozor, Joy Ogwu and Bola Akinterinwa did well leading the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), but there were also many ugly stories of public intellectuals being brought into government seemingly to demystify them. General later, President, Ibrahim Babangida made a good show of decorating his administration with high-profile public intellectuals but in the end, did he listen to them? The only other Nigerian Presidents who gave public intellectuals, substantial space in the running of government were Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, but even then what has been the impact of the presence of intellectuals in government? The Nigerian public service system is rigged to fail.                 

It must be noted nonetheless that there was at a point a discussion by Nigerian public intellectuals to move from the arena of advocacy into governance in the mould of Sartre’s “man of action” or Waltzer’s “caring insider.” Many public intellectuals including journalists who find ready role models in their own profession either later took government positions or jumped into the arena of politics. Their experience has been varied.  Akin Osuntokun, for example once tried to obtain a form to run as a candidate for the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. With all his education and exposure in both the public and private sectors, he was disqualified on the grounds that the screening panel doubted his primary school leaving certificate. Doubt? Or they had proof? Or they just made it up? A far less qualified person was given the ticket. The man won the election but he practically played possum throughout his tenure in the National Assembly. There was no way Osuntokun would have gone to the National Assembly of Nigeria to sleep, a forum that has now become a sleeping room for retired and tired bones.

The Osuntokun experience was the experience of many others who thought that as change agents they could make a difference from within as “caring insiders”. Perhaps the more instructive example in this axis would be the experience of Professor Pat Utomi in the last general elections. Professor Utomi is without doubt one of Nigeria’s leading public intellectuals. He has tried to be President of Nigeria on the platform of a lesser known party. He was in fact the founder of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and he ran for President in 2011. He lost. In the lead up to the 2015 general elections, he was part of the process and group that formed the All Progressive Congress (APC), a major opposition party, a special purpose vehicle, and an amalgam of strange bedfellows who eventually won the 2015 Presidential election. In 2019, Utomi tried to be Governor of his home state, Delta State, in the South South of Nigeria. For decades, Utomi had articulated his vision of governance, politics, entrepreneurship, and policy in books, essays, public lectures, television programmes, and consultancies. His attempt to become Governor of Delta State in 2019 took him to a new level of understanding about the depravity of the Nigerian and of Nigerian politics itself. His experience, agony and frustration is well-captured in his book. “Why Not?: Citizenship, State Capture, Creeping Fascism and Criminal Hijack of Politics in Nigeria (2019).  Why Not? Indeed. It is a question many Nigerian public intellectuals who seek to promote change from within the system often ask.

It may also be the case that the public intellectual class in Nigeria is a victim of its own expectations. The territory comes with a celebrity status, an acquired brand, and for some, Solomonic intimations of being special and wiser than the average man.  It is not just established authority figures, many of who rise to positions of importance by sheer default, even the people themselves whose common good the public intellectual defends are suspicious of intellectuals. Nigeria lost its moral compass even before the military took over power at the centre in the 60s and the situation has worsened with the return to democratic governance. Military dictatorship has been replaced by civilian intolerance. Access to prominent office is now equated with intellectualism as Nigeria recruits into high office, persons without morals, depth, or purpose. The people themselves are not looking for morals or purpose. The electoral process has become a money-making process dominated by moneybags of dubious credentials. The people do not care. For them, leadership is a scam. Nigeria has produced a generation of citizens whose alienation from state and society does not accommodate the kind of idealistic, certainly not abstract values, that public intellectuals push. The more urgent worry is how the Nigerian public elite, a class that is expected to be above board, has also become embroiled in the politics of religion, geography and ethnicity, creating such terrible mongrels as an Igbo public intellectual or a Yoruba public intellectual.  

My third argument in this regard is the effect of the internet on public intellectualism. In North America and Europe, certain public intellectuals explore the possibilities of the blogosphere and social media to advance public causes in a constructive manner. The intellectual elite that led the Nigerian struggle in the 70s and early 90s has grown into a dinosaur class that thinks that the social media is a playground for children. I have not done any empirical research to provide statistical, social science support for this, but a broad, anthropological investigation would confirm that the more informed public intellectuals are suspicious of the social media space or they do not know how it works and hence, the space has been abdicated for its inevitable seizure by 140-word influencers, and citizen photographers and reporters and in turn, this may have influenced the objection to the social media by authority figures, and their agents. The social media space in Nigeria can become far more influential the moment the Nigerian public intellectual begins to embrace technology as a tool of the revolution. Any attempt tp constrict the space for free expression and interaction would be an express violation of the 1999 Constitution.

The question may be asked: who reads? The production of ideas must or should be complemented by a learning and reading culture and ecosystem. The audience of the Nigerian public intellectual has shrunk badly in the face of a continuing neglect of the education sector. In 2021 alone, more than 500 schools were shut down in the northern parts of the country, due to cases of kidnapping, and terrorism. The number could be higher. Schools in the South report the proliferation of a culture of cultism and violence in schools. Both the states and the Federal Government promise higher investments in education, but the promise looms larger than the actual effort.

It is the worst of times, simply put, for Nigerian public intellectuals and scholars. As for the latter, majority of who teach in universities and research institutions, their salaries are not paid regularly, they are perpetually on strike and their so-called dialogue with government representatives is best regarded as a conversation between the deaf and the dumb. It is the worst of times, again because no zone, no square metre, no constituency is spared. A culture of intolerance seeks to impose a culture of fear and silence on the land. A noteworthy example in this regard would be the plight of Matthew Hassan Kukah, Bishop of the Sokoto Diocese of the Catholic Church of Nigeria and former Secretary General of the Catholic Secretariat in Lagos. Kukah would fall under the category of Said’s “critical outsider”, and also as  a person of action” as defined by Sartre, and he probably has been one of the luckiest public intellectuals at a time with access to the corridors of power. But because this is “the worst of times”, he has lost that access.  It is a measure of the times we live in that when Kukah spoke in the past, he got some attention as a cleric with a history of commitment and consistency. These days he gets a knock on the head literally. In February 2020, when he criticized the security situation in the country during a Homily at the Funeral Mass of a seminarian who was killed by kidnappers, Kukah was almost expelled from Sokoto.  He stood his ground. He refused to be intimidated. In January 2021, he repeated the offence and he has done so again and again at every possible forum. Could this be what the organizers of today’s public conversation mean about consistency in public intellectual advocacy? Or are some public intellectuals more privileged than others?

In broad terms, this is the terrain in which Akin Osuntokun operates, and the challenges that he faces and the community of assumptions to which he belongs. Public intellectualism is not a job. It is a choice, a mission. For more than 30 years, Akin Osuntokun has been involved in virtually every sphere of engagement as an intellectual in society, helping to re-imagine society. The hallmark of his involvement is his consistency, his capacity to adapt and his unflinching embrace of the culture of ideas and creative thinking about the demands of society. My first son and I once spent two nights with him in his house in Abuja and in the course of that visit, he took me to the garden at the back of the building where he had started a small farm: snail farming - and he was excited telling me about how to farm snails. There was also a fish pond: cat fish swimming inside water rather luxuriantly. I also got some lecture about fish farming. Osuntokun also disclosed that he actually also had a bigger farm somewhere. I looked forward to a free meal of snail and catfish whenever I visited him. But that didn’t happen. About a year later, Osuntokun himself complained to me that his farming project did not work. The only thought in my head was resentment at the people who ate or stole all the fish and how I never got the chance to have a taste. Osuntokun may have not been able to build a consistent profile in farming, but he has in the course of his career and efforts done much better in the field of public intellectualism. His background, education and experience would seem to have propelled him inexorably in the direction of the public sphere. Public intellectuals are cultural and social products, determined by factors that require closer interrogation in order to understand that striking dialectics between publics and intellectuals.                 

In my earlier commentary, I highlighted background and genetics as a factor in Akin Osuntokun’s evolution as a key player in Nigeria’s public space. He comes from a family of intellectuals: his great grandfather was a community thought leader, a warrior in many battles in Yorubaland: Kiriji, Ekitiparapo and Jalumi wars. His father, the late Hon. Joseph Oduola Osuntokun was a product of the famous Fourah Bay College in Sierra Leone; he was also a leading school principal and a prominent member of the Action Group in Western Nigeria until he and others parted ways with Chief Obafemi Awolowo, part-genesis of the crisis in the Western Region at the time. The elder Osuntokun was also a writer. A few years ago, Akin Osuntokun published his father’s autobiography, titled My View of The Coin.

Two of his uncles have also been prominent in Nigerian History: Professor Oluwakayode Osuntokun, Gold Medallist in Medicine and one of the leading scientists in the world. There is also Professor Akinjide Osuntokun, Emeritus Professor of History, author, newspaper columnist and former Nigerian Ambassador to Germany. Psychoanalysis is a useful tool in the reading of writers and public intellectuals: the meta-textual context provides a clue to the author’s visions and ideals contrary to the unsuccessful “death of the author” propounded by Roland Barthes and other structuralists and post-structuralists. The meaning in Akin Osuntokun’s writings and his consistent public intellectualism advocacy can be found within the author’s own sociological sphere. The scion of a warrior, in pursuit of an ideal vision of society, Osutokun also sees the public space as an arena for war, a struggle to be won between binary ideological and moral choices: what is wrong and what is right, what is good as opposed to what is bad. This probably explains the argumentative nature of his writings and the specificity of his choices. The other part of this war is a determination to sustain a family tradition: in politics, culture and the intellectual space.

Culture and tradition also both feature prominently in Osuntokun’s choices as a public intellectual. Osuntokun is a student of politics and social theory and in this regard two strands of influence are projected in his public work: his commitment to tradition and his exploration of the values of African traditional thought. He has over the years been involved in Yoruba traditional processes, he identifies himself affirmatively, without any ambiguity. He has served in community capacities as the Basorun of Okemesi, his home town in Ekiti State. He is currently the Balogun of the same community. He is also the co-ordinator of  the Ooni caucus, a socio-cultural interventionist group for the promotion of Yoruba interests and culure, founded by the present Ooni of Ife, HRM Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi, Ojaja II. But whereas Osuntokun explores culture and tradition as basis for understanding social theory, his main model is Max Weber, author of The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, which is considered one of the most important books on sociological inquiry in the 20^th Century. Echoes of Weberian thought inform Osuntokun’s writings, the commitment to social action and understanding. One of his most recent writings, yet to be published, a research essay written during his one-year stint as a Fellow at the University of Oxford, is a study of the linkages between the thoughts of Max Weber and the tropes of the Ifa eschatology in Africa.

Akin Osuntokun has worked in government; he has been active in politics, and journalism. But his example raises a question: should the public intellectual be partisan? Is the purpose and relevance of the public intellectual mitigated by his membership of a political party? In the public arena, in more than 30 years, Akin Osuntokun has never hidden his political affiliations, and whereas he cultivates and projects the habits of the contemplative class, he remains unapologetic about his political, cultural and intellectual affiliations.

At 60, his work in the public space is still developing and crystallizing, but the form is established in his many interventions as a modern time intellectual. His kind of example should provoke further thoughts about the interface between state and society, the kingdom of ideas and the arena of power and the relevance of public opinion and intellectualism in a society such as ours that is in urgent need of good reason, common sense and a reconsideration of the leadership recruitment process. More so as Nigeria faces a new phase of transition, economic and political with implications for long-term stability.

Reuben Abati

Lagos, Dec. 16, 2021.                       

“How far? Is it true that your boss is going back to Aso Villa? I read that some of his aides, I don’t know whether you are one of them, are advising him not to come back because you don’t trust President Muhammadu Buhari who seems to be his chief promoter?”

“Do you have any concrete evidence that President Goodluck Jonathan wants to be President again? I thought in 2015, you people argued that he had done two terms and allowing him again would amount to a violation of the 1999 Constitution. I am surprised that the same people who did not want him in 2015, are the same ones now saying he is the best man for the job?”

“I didn’t say so. I asked you a question”

“I have nothing to say to you.”

“But you must know something”

“I don’t know anything”

“But you must have an opinion”

“I don’t have any opinion. What I can say to you is that in a recent interview President Muhammadu Buhari disclosed that he really has no interest in who succeeds him in 2023, and he then contradicted himself when he said that even if he has a preferred candidate, he would rather not name him, so that the person would not be eliminated before the election.”

“But we all know he and President Jonathan have been holding meetings. Your boss is a regular guest in the Villa.”

“How regular, if I may ask?”

“We see the photos in the media. They seem to be very close, these days. Don’t you think there is something to it, the same President Jonathan that the Buhari administration used to blame for everything that went wrong with Nigeria, now he and his successor are always seen together.”

“And you have a problem with that? Is it not a good thing that the predecessor and his successor are seen to be working together? Both of them are members of the Council of State. They are both statesmen. They have a bigger stake in this country than you and I put together.”

“Forget about stake, please. We are all entitled to just one vote. What we are saying is that President Buhari wants President Jonathan to succeed him to complete the remaining four years of a maximum of two terms that he can legitimately lay claim to.”

“God, you are wonderful!”

“What has God got to do with this?”

“Our God lives. Jehovah, you are the Lord, you are the most wonderful Lord..”

“Are you okay?”

“Can’t you see it? I never knew a day would come when the same people who demonized President Jonathan, the same people who called him clueless, the same persons who abused and harassed his aides would turn around to praise him, and seek his return to the Presidential Villa. So it is true what our leaders say, that the mouth that the snail uses to abuse the ancestral spirit, it is the same mouth it would use to scrub the floor at the shrine.”

“Who is discussing snails with you? I am drawing your attention to practical politics. I understand President Buhari does not want some of the names being thrown up from the South West. I hear he does not want a South West President because that would mean that the South West would have been in power for eight years of Obasanjo, 8 years of Osinbajo as Vice President and then another 8 years. Someone told me he does not want the North either. And because of IPOB and the Biafra secessionist agitation, the East is completely ruled out. If he can get a candidate from the South South, preferably President Jonathan, then that would just be 4 years of a Jonathan Presidency. The only condition I hear is that President Jonathan has to defect to the APC.”

“You should join them in Nollywood. You will make a good writer of fiction.”

“I know what I am talking about”

“You certainly don’t. What would it look like, if President Jonathan were to suddenly abandon, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the party through which he made history as the first Nigerian ever to be a Deputy Governor, Acting Governor, Governor, Vice President, Acting President and President. No other Nigerian alive today has had the privilege of such distinction. He is the main historical symbol of the PDP. He should walk away from all that?”

“The PDP has not been nice to him. The members betrayed him in 2015. They have also not treated him nicely since he left office. Even if he is interested in returning to office, the forces in the PDP will not give him the ticket. And I don’t even see President Buhari supporting a PDP candidate.”

“So, you want him to join APC, the Special Purpose, hate-driven vehicle which they used to push him out of power in 2015? You mean President Jonathan and Alhaji Lai Mohammed can possibly be in the same party? Imagine that. How? And what tells you he will get the APC Presidential ticket? You want him to go and hustle against all the entrenched interests in the APC? Asiwaju Tinubu. The Vice President and all the other worms, that will still crawl out of the woods!”

“This is Nigeria. Anything is possible. If the owners of Nigeria decide on what the future of Nigeria should be and they take a decision, that is exactly what will happen.”

“Nobody owns Nigeria. We all own this country together. I am nobody’s slave.”

“Keep deceiving yourself, Oga the owner”

“Besides, the people of the Niger Delta will not accept the insult that their man will be given four years, to satisfy the narrow interests of the Fulani hegemony. You think people like Rotimi Amaechi or Timipre Sylva will be happy, when they can do eight years if the whole idea is about the South South coming to power?”

“Dey there. If the Jonathan project works, you’d be surprised Amaechi and Sylva will be glad to be given a role to paste posters on every wall from Port Harcourt to Lake Chad.”

“But all of you that are talking about the likely return of President Jonathan, what do you want him to return to?”

“He knows Nigeria. He can fix it. He has had seven years of reflection. Even if he made any mistakes in the past, he won’t repeat the same mistakes. He is strong, energetic, and healthy. He already has a team that he can call up, back to service, and hence, hit the ground running”.

“You people and your conspiracy theories are just looking for a sacrificial lamb. When President Jonathan left office in 2015, Naira-Dollar exchange rate was N150 per dollar, today it is N413 per dollar. Everything else has gone up. Inflation rate is 15.9%. Unemployment is over 30%.  If the fuel subsidy is removed, the pump price of petrol would be about N340 per litre. Herders-farmers conflict is now so bad that a cow that we used to buy at N70, 000 is now N300, 000 per cow. After turning the country upside down, you people want President Jonathan to come and take the blame. Una try well, well.”

“But do you know what he wants? Or what his wife, Mama Peace wants? Nigerians miss Dame Jonathan. They want her back too.”

“I don’t know. I have no clue. But I thought some people said what Nigeria needs right now is a Josef Stalin or Hitler or a combination of both.”    

“No. We don’t need a Hitler. We need a man who is a bridge builder. A peace-maker”

“But I thought some of you argued that President Jonathan was too gentle. He has suddenly become the stone that the builder rejected which has now become the cornerstone of the building”

“Who is talking about stones? My friend, learn to talk straight. Stop twisting everything. What do you think? Should we go and consult Mummy G. O.?”

“Who is so called?”

“Mummy G. O. of the Rapture Proclaimer Evangelical Church of God (RAPEC), in Ota, Ogun State.”

“I only know of one Mummy G.O and Daddy G. O, the original G.Os and they are not in Ota.”

“Ha. There is a new Mummy G. O. in town and this one is a celebrity of the pulpit. Have you not seen her videos? She is the self-appointed Gatekeeper of the Road to Hell. The female preacher who says you will go to Hell if you play football, wear make-up, or jewelry, seductive clothes, beads, eyelashes, miniskirts, or worldly hairstyle. She has been featured on BBC, and she is all over the social media. End-time preachers are all over the place. That was how one of them came up many years ago to say that to watch television is a sin. Today, all members of the church now watch television. They wear jewelry and the owner of the church has built a big auditorium. ”

“I hear people are trooping to her church in large numbers in search of the route to Heaven. I guess in their kind of business, you have to say something dramatic to attract the congregation. Mummy G.O. of Ota has carved a niche for herself in the Church of Nigeria with her unique style of saving people from going to Hell.”

“There is never a short supply of gullible people in this country. I am sure if you ask her, she would probably tell you every Nigerian politician will end up in Hell. The question is: has she been to Hell before?”

“She actually said she spent 990 years there before she came back to the world.”

“Please can we discuss something serious? Nigerians are so distracted, so disoriented they will follow any tale bearer.”   

“Well, we don’t need to consult Mummy G. O. I can tell you for free that her verdict would be that people like you, who know one or two things and who refuse to say the truth, will definitely go to Hell and rot there.”

“And I can tell you nobody is scared. Mummy G. O. of Ota provides good entertainment. Some people have even taken over her narrative to create many memes in her name. That was how I ran into one pretty young lady the other day and paid her compliments. She asked if I was aware that any married man who looks lustfully at any pretty woman would go to Hell, according to Mummy G.O!”

“I think I have an idea of the people who should go to Hell.”

“Like who and who?”

“Since you have refused to tell me what you know about the politics of the race to 2023, I don’t have to tell you what I know too.”

“Look, the politics of the 2023 Presidency in Nigeria is one of the foggiest items on the calendar. Nobody is sure of anything. One year to the 2015 general election, we had an idea who the main candidates were and all the games being played. In 2019, it was clear that the APC was not willing to relinquish power. The 2023 election is just about a year away, nobody can put a finger on anything.”

“I can”

“I am listening”

“INEC says even if the Heavens fall, the elections will hold. I can put my finger on that. I can also put my finger on the fact that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Governor of Lagos State and Chieftain of the ruling APC has informed President Buhari formally that he is in the race. He made it very clear yesterday that it is his life ambition to be President of Nigeria and that he has the capacity. I can also put my finger on the fact that Aare Dele Momodu, the publisher of Ovation magazine and ThisDay newspaper back-page columnist, also wants to be President. Others who have shown interest include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, by proxy, in his own case, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, Dr Doyin Okupe, Kingsley Moghalu..” 

“You don’t get it. People don’t become President of Nigeria by just printing posters or through social media announcements. It is far more complex. What is the emerging consensus? Nobody knows. Will the President come from the North or the South, or the North Central? Nobody knows. What are the key issues on the table? All I hear is aspirants saying they can do the job. And now you claim some people are pushing for the return of President Jonathan. I just hope some people are not trying to play southerners against one another to achieve a hidden agenda.”

“One year is a long time in politics. You never know.”

“We should know. Nigeria cannot afford to end up with an accidental President. That would be disastrous, especially as the two major political parties do not appear to be ready. We don’t even have an electoral framework in place yet.” 

“That is not a problem. The President says he would sign it as soon as the National Assembly removes the portion dealing with direct primaries.”      

 “But the security situation in the country is getting worse, and there are radical groups threatening to prevent any future election in any part of the country.”

“Don’t worry. Nigeria has a way of surviving. We are a country where the unexpected happens, the strangest of all things occur, and yet the people adjust and move on. The next elections would be no different.” 

The lawyer, civil right activist and the Mayegun Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yorubaland, Dr Kayode Ajulo described the scenario concerning the police officer’s refusal on last week Tuesday to obey Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, as a power play of the judiciary and Lagos State Government.

Speaking during an interview with Reuben Abati on City 105.1 FM on Saturday.

The incident has raised a slew of concerns, including state policing, true federalism, and police undermining the authority of a state governor, who is essentially characterized as the state's chief security officer in section 216 subsection 4 of the constitution.

The crisis at Magodo Phase 2 did not start under the watch of Governor Sanwo-Olu; the fight started as far back as 1969.

In 1984 the State started negotiations with the purported owners and We've been told that Shangisha Landlord Association lost out.

According to Dr Ajulo, “…by so doing the property is taken away from them and it was dawn on the landlords that the property taken away to build a hospital; is now sold to other people, and based on that premise they went to court.

“It was over 30 years ago and 29 years ago, Justice Balogun of Lagos High Court, gave an injunction that those landlords are entitled to 549 plots of land to be given to them.

“Instead of obeying court order, the matter moved to Appeal Court, from Appeal Court to supreme court.

“And in 2012, Supreme Court gave the judgement for the landlords that they are entitled to such plots of land.”

Ajulo refered to page 40 of the Court judgement, implying that the judgement emphatically explained and directed that, “these are the numbers of the plot that must be given to the land lords.”

“And what is expected from the government is to obey the law,” he said.

“Giving a contrary order, trying to subvert that reinforcement of that judgment, trying to subvert the pronouncement of the Supreme Court; is an impeachable offence,” Ajulo added.

However, Dr Reuben Abati stated that in 1988 Supreme Court decided; and the 2012 judgement by the Supreme Court is not declaratory.

Abati said, “The court weighed heavily on the side of the doctrine of equity.

“The judgement was not specific in terms of identifying plots of land.

“The judgement creditors who went to take possession are acting on their own.

“Which particular plot are they are attaching?

“Those buildings they marked, have certificate of occupancy,

“The residence of Magodo Phase two are saying that this land was allocated to them.”

Dr Ajulo’s reaction: “The equity of that case demand s that the Lagos government playing about four or three rules; apart from being a judgement creditor happen to be the government of the day, apart from being the government of the day; they are the trustee that hold the trust of the people and they are accountable whole to have been able to have sit down to say look our situation, justice must be done and it is expected within 12 years that this issue would have been resolved.”

Ajulo blamed the Lagos State government as the major provocateur of the Magodo issue.

He described what transpired between the Lagos State Governor the Police Officer a disservice and that incident cannot be used to canvass for State Police.

He described the statement the South West Governors led by Governor Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State condemning the act, as being partisan.

In Ajuolo’s words, “the forum of Governor is to defend the governor and not even the state.”

He commended the Lagos State Government for setting up a committee to solve the inherent problem.

The lead story in This Day newspaper of December 30, 2021 brought the year to a close with a reminder of one of the many ills that bedevil Nigeria, encapsulated in a telling headline: “With Rising Theft, Nigeria Records 193 million barrels of crude oil deficit in 11 months”. This is otherwise translated into an estimated $3.5 billion of revenue lost to crude oil theft in 2021 alone, in other words, about 10% of the country’s foreign reserves. For a country that depends on petroleum products for about 85% of its total exports revenue and has been unable to define a future for itself beyond oil, oil theft is akin to a national calamity, a massive erosion, and an economic sabotage of the highest order. Even if it may not be the only factor that contributes to crude oil deficit, its impact is worth investigating. With regard to oil theft, ThisDay newspaper was not exactly reporting any new trend. Oil theft has been perennial and unceasing and indeed, it gets worse by the year. 

In its latest audit report, made public in July 2021, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) indicated that in 2019, Nigeria lost 42.25 million barrels of crude oil to oil theft, valued at 2.77 billion dollars.  This was actually meant to be an improvement (imagine!) because in 2018, 53.28 million barrels were stolen. And then in 2021, 193 million barrels of crude vanished from Nigeria’s resources. The value of stolen crude in Nigeria is enough to fix many of the country’s problems and reduce the obsession with borrowings. This is the reason why oil theft must be stopped.  On the average, Nigeria loses about 200, 000 barrels per day. What is stolen in concrete terms is not just crude oil, but jobs, opportunities, and possibilities. Oil theft is also a veritable example of grand corruption, and this is the point that has been made consistently in NEITI’s audit reports. The opaqueness that dominates the entire oil and gas value chain in Nigeria accounts for oil theft and loss of revenue. The absence of political will to tackle the problem makes it worse. Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total divested from Nigeria in part because of oil theft.

In September 2021, the Federal Government decided to set up an Inter-Ministerial Committee on the recovery of crude oil and illegally refined petroleum products in the Niger Delta Region comprising the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), all backed by the security agencies – the Nigerian Army, the Navy, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) and others. The committee’s mandate is drawn from the provisions of the Assets Tracing, Recovery and Management Regulations 2019. Yet, by the end of the year, 193 million barrels of crude oil had disappeared and certainly that must be an under-valuation, an estimate.

 It is well known that there is no proper documentation of anything in Nigeria. We don’t even know how many we are. The National Population Commission (NPC) has no accurate register of births and deaths. Should it therefore be any surprise that there is no mechanism in place for monitoring how many barrels of crude oil Nigeria produces or the exact volume of it that is sold? Three years ago, there was some fancy talk about the introduction of technology to monitor output and activities along Nigeria’s oil pipelines network to detect sabotage, human interference and protect critical infrastructure. Oil was discovered in Nigeria, in Oloibiri, Bayelsa state in 1956. In 2022, Nigeria is still talking about how to protect pipelines through the adoption of technology. Even if technology is deployed through automation, the internet of things, drone technology, and the electronic monitoring that certain commentators recommend would still be an excuse to award contracts and make more money. Whatever works in other countries, Nigeria takes the same ideas and turns them upside down.

The people who want to stop oil theft are really not interested in stopping anything, so it seems, for indeed, oil theft is an organized crime, with a network of stakeholders that cuts across many layers of interest. And that includes the same agencies saddled with the responsibility to stop it. Illegal oil bunkering: hot tapping or cold tapping, or the smuggling and diversion of petroleum products is an expensive enterprise, that involves the collusion of both state officials and their agents.  It may not be incorrect to argue, in fact,  that nothing has been done because those who should take the decision or their agents are themselves involved, or they have been compromised. Crude oil in the international market has a signature imprint that indicates the source, but somehow, stolen crude from Nigeria simply disappears into a sinkhole, without trace. There are also illegal refineries in the Niger Delta. Every Minister of Mines and Steel Development develops a plan for addressing the menace of illegal refineries, but nothing ever gets done. Even Governors complain about illegal refineries.

Most recently, on January 1, 2022, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, in his New Year address, devoted some paragraphs to the challenge of the environment in the state. He condemned the pollution of the environment by the operation of illegal refineries. He even knows their location: “illegal crude oil refining sites along Creek Road and adjoining areas of the city…” and he wants them shut down with immediate effect. He added that all local government Chairmen should work with “community leaders to locate and identify those behind illegal bunkering and crude oil refining sites in their localities and report to my office for further action…” It would be a miracle indeed if either Wike or any other Governor in the Niger Delta would be able to put a stop to illegal oil bunkering activities in the entire region. The big-time oil bunkerers are major figures in the communities and key financiers of political processes!

Oil theft is further tied to the politics of Nigeria and the ownership of mineral resources. Section 44(3) of the 1999 Constitution, item 39 Schedule II of the Exclusive Legislative List and Section 1 of the Petroleum Act, 1969 vests the ownership and control of natural resources in any part of Nigeria in the Federal Government for the benefit of the people. (Also see Attorney General of the Federation vs. AG Abia State). For decades, the people of the Niger Delta and others have argued that this is a departure from the Federal principle that Nigeria claims to embrace and that as operationalized, the Federal Government’s ascribed ownership of mineral resources amounts to gross injustice more so as the Niger Delta which produces the mainstay of the economy remains dispossessed, marginalized and underdeveloped compared to other parts of the country that contribute less, and yet seek to control what does not belong to them. 

The battle over what is termed “Resource Control” has taken many dimensions over the years including the agitations that led to the Willinks Commission Inquiry on Minority Rights of 1957/58, the heroism of Isaac Adaka Boro (1966), the Ogoni people’s Struggle for Survival, the Kaiama Declaration, the politics of agitation for resource control, Niger Delta militancy and calls for a complete restructuring of Nigeria. In 2004, Niger Delta Representatives walked out of the National Political Reform Conference when a consensus could not be reached on the subject of resource control and derivation. Niger Delta activists have since taken up this matter by insisting that derivation is inadequate, development initiatives such as the Niger Delta Development Commission and OMPADEC before it, amount to mere tokenisms, and that total resource control is what the people want. This matter reared its head again recently, and apparently will never go away, given the North vs South alignment around it. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo had expressed the opinion at a public seminar that Nigeria’s crude oil does not belong to the people of the Niger Delta but to all Nigerians and to say anything to the contrary would be illegal and unconstitutional.

President Obasanjo correctly stated the position of the Nigerian Constitution, but in so doing he stirred the hornet’s nest as Niger Delta stakeholders led by Chief E.K. Clark attacked him as “an enemy of the Niger Delta”. Niger Delta activists and many other Nigerians think that the 1999 Constitution is a dubious military decree that should not be quoted as Nigeria’s grund norm. President Obasanjo’s argument must have reminded them of that other argument actively pushed by Northern intellectuals in the 80s and 90s that the oil in the Niger Delta actually came from Northern Nigeria and settled in the Delta, as part of a given process of geological sedimentation. The consensus in the Niger Delta is that this is a thief’s argument and that the real thieves of crude oil are those who exploit other people’s resources and who then turn around to insult the real owners.

It is also in this regard that local players in the Niger Delta who are involved in illegal oil bunkering do not consider their activities theft or crime. In a curious good thief vs. bad thief binary at the heart of oil politics in Nigeria, they justify their own oil theft, and openly flaunt their ill-gotten wealth because they believe that they cannot be taken to task for stealing what belongs to them, their  grandfathers and generations yet unborn. They find ready allies across Nigeria and the rest of the world, because everyone else is anxious to make a quick buck. Many young persons in the Niger Delta would rather be a militant or an oil thief. Thievery, by the way, is a national pastime, a national creed, in Nigeria. Everybody is looking for something to steal: from gold in Zamfara and Ilesa to bitumen in Ondo, crude oil in the Niger Delta Basin, and the vaults of the Central Bank, if possible.         

The economics, mathematics, cost and politics of oil theft point in one direction: the need for the country to put in place a strong surveillance mechanism. The country’s pipeline network is decayed, hence making the work of the oil thief easy. There was a recent blow out at AITEO’s OML 29 well-head in Santa Barbara River, Nembe, Bayelsa State. It took nearly a month for NOSDRA to be aware of it, and for any agency of government to take any action at all. It is important to have the necessary infrastructure and technology in place, and to treat oil theft strictly as economic sabotage. The penal structure for the crime should also be strengthened. Given the cost to the nation, the minimum sanction for oil theft should be life or death sentence. The politics of oil ownership or trusteeship cannot be advanced as an excuse for criminality. Until Nigeria decides to address its divisive politics, and public officials stop their hollow sloganeering about national unity, the resort to self-help, in form of oil theft or illegal bunkering, should not replace the rule of law. Crude oil refining has also been a problem. When will Nigeria’s refineries begin to function again at optimal capacity and profitably too?

It would require a whole Festschrift to capture the essence of Professor Bolaji Akinwande Akinyemi, who turns 80, today, Tuesday, January 4, 2022. Academic, author, public policy expert, distinguished Professor, man of letters, senior citizen, Professor Akinyemi is a Nigerian icon, one of the diamonds that continue to shine luminously in the Nigerian landscape and whose engagements with his country and the international community, through his writings, and policy interventions confirm his genius, humanism and excellence. In 1975, he was a 33-year old Political Science lecturer at the University of Ibadan when he was appointed as the Director-General of the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA,) Nigeria’s foreign policy think tank. Akinyemi brought not just youthful energy to the NIIA, he imbued the Institute with his exceptional brain power and intellection and left behind a legacy, upon which his successors, added their own blocks.

His reward was his retention in that position, over a period of eight years, by a total of three administrations: Murtala Muhammad, Olusegun Obasanjo and Shehu Shagari and his subsequent appointment as Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs by General Ibrahim Babangida. Akinyemi was a creative thinker coming up, at every turn with original ideas: the Concert of Medium Powers,  the Black Bomb, Nigerian exceptionalism, the power school, and although many of his ideas were rigorously debated, he was never found wanting whenever he was dragged into the arena of intellectual pugilism. I recall his exchanges with the polemicist and poet, the inimitable Odia Ofeimun. Akinyemi argued for the authenticity of African identity and ideas, and the continent as a frontier for development. It was during his time as Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs that the Technical Aid Corps, (the TAC)) was conceived and established.

He has since through all seasons remained active in the public domain, an affirmation of his top credentials as a public intellectual, and as a symbol of how intellectuals can with the power of ideas forge a necessary link between the world of ideas and the world of action, between theory and praxis. In this regard, Akinyemi is a master of the art of tact, balance and ambidextrous navigation, as he cultivates the persona of an insider who is yet an outsider, a key player within the establishment at various times, and yet an activist for public good in defence of the masses. The former DG NIIA, and former Minister, during Nigeria’s turbulent years of transition from military rule to civilian rule, joined Nigeria’s Democratic Coalition and lent his voice openly to the struggle to save Nigeria. He remains fully engaged in public affairs, both locally and internationally, refusing to slow down. His capacity for work-life balance is also impressive.

In those days, he used to show up now and then at the Niteshift Coliseum, a night-club and entertainment centre, a stone-throw away from his Opebi residence, where he mingled with the young, and enjoyed the good life. He later joined us at The Guardian, on special invitation, as a Consultant to The Guardian Editorial Board. It was a pleasure working with him. These days, Professor Akinyemi has also been a major go-to person for us at Arise News TV for commentaries on international affairs. He never disappoints. Close to 50 years in the public arena, Professor Akinyemi has remained prodigious and intellectually formidable. I am tempted to say that they don’t make them like that anymore, but Professor Akinyemi himself would be the first to correct me on that score, because indeed what his generation has done is to inspire, amidst the rot that has enveloped Nigeria, a younger generation in academia and civil society, who continue to raise hopes about Nigeria’s future.

I have no doubts that Professor Bolaji Akinyemi is fully aware that there are implications to his attainment of the age of 80. I look forward to seeing him soon in his signature bow-tie and bespoke suit, to toast to his life and times and distinction. Happy Birthday, sir. Many Happy Returns.     

By the time we meet again on this page, right here, this very space, it would be a new year, and it is just so amazing that that is the way of the world. A year begins. It ends. From January to December, we go through the same cycle, inexorably. And as I look back, what I remember is a year that whizzed past just like that. But it was a bad year for many, and for Nigeria, whatever the vuvuzelas of the corridors of power may say. The year 2021 will be remembered by Nigerians also not so much for the tragedies that it brought but for the anxieties that it leaves behind about the immediate future. No year in recent times has left us with so much uncertainty, anxiety and doubt. As 2022 knocks on the gates, I, let me speak for myself, remember 2021, as the year when Nigeria failed to deal with the challenge of insecurity. Things just got worse on that front. In Northern Nigeria alone, more than 600 schools were shut down. Children were abducted from schools. The government had no clue. And as the year ends, the insecurity situation is compounded, lamentably by high inflation, unemployment rate, an army of disgruntled, dispossessed and unhappy youths, a security architecture that serves only the purpose of high-ranking state officials who go about in convoys of shame, an economy that is wobbling, silly public officials who think that they can do whatever they wish with stolen funds, and governments at all levels that cannot be too bothered. The latter are waiting for the next budget and the opportunity to award more contracts.

The Nigerian elite as always has not been able to forge a consensus about the past, the present and the future, leaving the people, these long-suffering people of Nigeria in a lurch. One Nigerian newspaper tried to review the year 2021, and searched far and wide for a person of the year and came up with the damning declaration that nobody was worth the honour of being declared Nigeria’s Person of the Year. I thought that was rather thought-provoking. In a country of over 200 million human beings, not even one person was considered good enough to be praised or vilified. Many years ago, we chose the common man, the Nigerian, as The Guardian newspaper’s Person of the Year, for his resilience, courage and commitment in the face of difficulties, but it looks like not even that common man is good enough anymore. But should anyone be surprised? These days, some newspapers are so silly they even choose those we regard ordinarily as “”money-miss-road” as Men of the Year. I remember 2021 as the year in which something went terribly wrong with us. Pipeline explosions, Market fires. Sharp rise in suicide cases. Needless loss of lives. Lies. Lies. Lies from official quarters. And by the way, 2021 was the year the Nigerian Government at the centre locked people, young people out of Twitter. In June, they banned access to Twitter- the major micro-blogging site that provides many Nigerians opportunities not just for social interaction, but also business. Government says Twitter wants to ruin Nigeria, but as the ban continues, nobody is sure anymore whether the problem is really Twitter or a disregard for the right of the average Nigerian to the freedom of expression. 

And on top of that was COVID. In fairness to the Nigerian Government, the Presidential Steering Committee, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) as well as agencies in some of the sub-national units focused heavily on vaccinating Nigerians against the virus and on generating awareness. The clumsiness that we witnessed in 2020 with regard to Nigeria’s management of COVID-19 improved a bit, such that by the end of 2021, both the NPHCDA and the NCDC can begin to award grades to states of the Federation. But on the whole, the news is very bad. In the face of OMICRON, Nigeria is having an OMICRONOUS end of the year. The guys at the NCDC tell us that recently there has been a 500% spike in COVID cases in the country. Nigeria is effectively in a Fourth Wave.  But do the people care? No. They don’t. In Europe and elsewhere, restaurants, bars and events centres are empty. Travel and tourism bookings have been cancelled. Business chieftains in England are asking the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak to do more for the hospitality industry beyond the one million pounds that he has promised. In many parts of the world, Christmas was cancelled, and where it was kept alive as in England, there are fears about what may well happen in January. In Nigeria, we seem to be somewhat insincere. Before Christmas, the Federal Government had advised churches not to exceed 50% capacity at Cross-Over Services on December 31. The people were told to stay at home, avoid crowded gatherings and observe all necessary guidelines and protocols. Wash your hands. Wear a mask. Nobody listened. Over the weekend that just ended, Nigerians were out there, celebrating the Yuletide. Every event centre was filled to capacity. It was difficult to find seats at restaurants. To worsen matters, even the Federal Government declared free train rides! What kind of government tells people to avoid crowded places and yet gives them free tickets to go about like smallpox?

I think Nigerians are tired. Their government is tired. COVID-19 has stretched us to the very limits. But unfortunately, we have not done enough. Morocco holds the best record in Africa in terms of vaccination. Out of a population of about 38 million, it has vaccinated over 23 million. Nigeria wants to vaccinate up to 55% of its eligible population by the first quarter of 2022 but there is no concrete evidence to show that the country has the capacity to do so. Already we have missed the 40% target set for the end of 2021, with only about 2% of the population fully vaccinated so far. Our risk communication strategies are also weak and ineffective. The average Nigerian believes that COVID-19 is a “white man’s disease and burden” and that government officials are using it to steal public funds. When you try to argue with them, they would tell you pointedly that they know health officials, and fine-girl contractors, concubines of men in high places, who have built houses from COVID contracts. Enough said on that…Let us remember the dead. In 2021, many died, persons of influence whose lives enriched others: Cicely Tyson, Alhaji Lateef Jakande,  Prince Tony Momoh, Pastor Temitope Joshua, Yinka Odumakin, Sadiq Daba, Sound Sultan, Rachel Oniga, Prince Phillip, Robert Dole, Colin Powell, DMX… May their souls rest in peace….

But I guess it would be fair to say that the year 2021 was not entirely gloomy.  There were amazing individual stories. Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emerged as Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), a great achievement for Nigeria. Chimamanda Adichie, Burna Boy, Davido, Wizkid, Tems… continue to demonstrate the beauty of individual talent and the richness of Nigerian genius in the creative industry. Burna Boy won the Grammy award in the Best Global Music Album category…We can in fact, conveniently put together a list of 50 Happy Stories of 2021: in the United States, Kamala Harris made history early in the year as the first female, first black and first Asian-American Vice President in US history. The United Nations declared 2021, the “Year of International Peace and Trust”. I am not too sure about that, though. Where is peace in the world? In Afghanistan? Or Northern Nigeria? Where is trust? Emma Raducanu, 19, won the US Open, the first British woman to win a Grand Slams singles title since Virginia Wade in 1977. Max Verstappen of Red Bull, won the Formula One World Title 2021.  Lewis Hamilton, seven-time world champion, the Mercedes superstar, was so unhappy, he unfollowed everybody on Instagram. He got Knighted though. Lionel Messi, 34, took the Ballon D’Or, a seventh record time! As the year draws to a close, Pfizer and Merck have come up with two antiviral, oral pills, Paxlovid and Molnupiravir respectively, that have raised hopes afresh about the treatment of COVID-19 and indications that science may well be ahead of the pandemic in the long run.   

But Nigeria’s problems are bigger than the pandemic. The big problem we face as Nigerians is the uncertain note on which the year ends. The big question is: what will the year 2022 bring? I don’t know many Nigerians who can answer that question. We are ending a year, but we are going into the next one as a major guess work - a year of ifs. What if the COVID-19 pandemic gets worse and Nigeria is not prepared? What if inflation goes up, beyond current levels? What if the Buhari government decides to remove fuel subsidy and life just goes round the bend? I was asking someone the other day and I was told the cost of a cow is now about N270, 000! Cow. Common Maalu, that we used to buy for N80, 000, and we say we still have an economy? A bag of rice is now beyond reach. Tomatoes. Onions. Pepper. It is no wonder that people are easily irritated these days. The year ahead is also the year of politics. Both at the Federal and sub-national levels, our political leaders are most likely to be distracted. We don’t have an agreed electoral framework yet, and so the new year would begin with all of that unresolved matter of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021. And who will be Nigeria’s next President? There is definitely no emerging consensus in that direction. Nigeria’s future, as the year 2021 ends, is clearly uncertain. The year 2022 remains at this moment, a great unknown.

Many years ago, I sat in the office of a big man who shall remain nameless- and he expressed serious concerns about what would happen after his demise. He had not yet put a succession plan in place. He did not like the fact that his daughters seemed to be doing better than his sons, and how the daughters, smart as they were had ended up in the hands of husbands he thought were completely unserious and the threat that unserious sons-in-law can pose to a rich man’s estate. He was worried about the future. Big men; big problems, I thought. What happens after a man is dead and gone?

I remembered him last week as I read the story of the matter between Chief Sonny Odogwu’s survivors and Access Bank over a matter of a N26.22 billion loan which by the effect of a judgement debt secured by Access Bank against two of the late Chief Odogwu’s companies – Robert Dyson and Dicket Limited and SIO Property Limited, and the beneficiaries of his estate, had now been placed at over N50 billion. Access Bank, plaintiff in the case, claimed that it granted various credit facilities to the late Chief Odogwu’s companies for the construction of Luxury Hotels and Apartments.  The Court found in favour of the plaintiff and granted an order that the collaterals, that is security, for the said loans/facilities should be sold. There were other specific orders.  The defendants took the matter to the Court of Appeal. Access Bank wants to enforce the judgment of Court. On December 20, ThisDay newspaper reported: “Access Bank Moves to Claim Late Sonny Odogwu’s Properties Over N50bn debt.”   

It was the N50 billion that caught my attention. I have always been suspicious of Nigeria’s big men. Many years ago, when the Assets Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) published a list of Nigeria’s most notorious debtors, I was shocked to find that most of the people on the list are those persons Nigerians call big men and women: the same ones that reporters struggle to praise to high heavens, media houses celebrate them and innocent people like me refer to as innovators, entrepreneurs, philanthropists, Nigeria’s diamonds... we write glowing profiles about the icons, the movers and shakers, the shapers, the titans of industry…but what that list exposed was that there were actually very few authentic rich people around. I asked: how can you be so heavily indebted and claim to be a big man? How do you sleep at night? That AMCON list settled the matter for me. Nobody should be called a rich man except you know how much he is owing the banks! Too many people in Nigeria going about in flowing gowns, disturbing traffic and snatching people’s girlfriends, with borrowed money!  I was educated however by some people around me: that it is okay to be a chronic debtor and be a big man. Something like: Nobody uses their own money to do business. To do business, you borrow money. Interest rates can go up. Investments can fail. It is not every businessman that takes a loan, and deliberately wastes it.

Chief Sonny Odogwu was a man of great enterprise, and talent who helped to create strong legacies in the insurance business in Nigeria, industrial relations, real estate and hospitality. He was also the publisher of the defunct Post newspaper. He was also a strong community leader. He created jobs, touched many lives and carried himself with untainted dignity till the end. What the Access Bank case shows is that he left unfinished business behind. And it doesn’t seem to be the kind of unfinished business that honours his legacy or memory. The Ide Ahaba Sonny Dike Odogwu, CFR, was a glorious son of Asaba, and one of the best ambassadors from that community. The beneficiaries of his estate owe him a duty to preserve his memory and honour. If there is money being owed, just obey the courts, and let the living learn to build their own legacies. There are strong lessons to be learnt from the Sonny Odogwu business case study about banking, relationships, and succession. Above all, Access Bank owes a duty to protect depositors’ money!    

It is now confirmed: President Muhammadu Buhari has withheld assent to the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2021 as forwarded to him by the National Assembly on November 19, 2021. Yesterday, there were speculations as to whether or not the President had complied with the provisions of Section 58 (4) of the 1999 Constitution and  whether or not the 30-day time frame in the Constitution had lapsed or not. That has now become academic. The President has rejected the Electoral Act as amended and proposed. We are back, all of a sudden to 2018 - the moment before the 2019 general elections - when the President withheld assent to the then proposed 2019 Electoral Act Amendment Bill on the grounds that the country faced the constraints of time, to enable relevant institutions to put the reforms then being proposed in place. Nonetheless, the original arguments about electoral reform and all the issues involved became even more urgent after the 2019 general elections, which in many ways merely further accentuated the change and progress that Nigerians wanted. 

Expectedly, the 9^th National Assembly led by Dr. Ahmad Lawan was put under heavy pressure to return to the subject. Lawan promised that the National Assembly under his Chairmanship would treat it as a priority. The Amendment Bill that was transmitted to the President, Muhammadu Buhari a month ago, did not cover all the concerns expressed by the stakeholder-communities – such as independent candidacy, diaspora voting, and  reforms with regard to the treatment of electoral offences, but it was a major advance. It said a lot that was useful, to be fair, about the mode of conducting party primaries by the political parties, nomination of candidates, campaign finance, the leveraging of technology in elections, the balloting process. Yesterday, the President put public anxiety as to what he would do to rest, by returning the Bill to the National Assembly without his assent. His major grouse is his objection to the idea of direct primaries as proposed. The President says direct primaries will be a prescription for chaos in the political parties, and an undemocratic abbreviation of the rights of political parties to conduct their own affairs. Other reasons, as reported, include the “high cost of conducting direct primaries, the security challenge of monitoring the election, violation of citizens’ rights and marginalization of small political parties.” Why did it take the President 30 days and a 30-day, eleventh hour, nerve-wracking suspense to arrive at this off-the-shelf response?        

Or does anyone think the President has handled the matter in a much cleverer manner this time around? In 2018, he was directly accused of frustrating the passage of the law because he did not want any reform that would jeopardize his personal chances of getting a second term in office. In 2023, he would not be running for office and whereas the same President promises Nigerians credible elections and a legacy of fairness, he has tactically shifted whatever blame may emerge in the future to other stakeholders. But not quite, and not so, I guess.  It is on record that the most divisive matter after the passage of the Electoral Act Amendment Bill by the two Chambers of the National Assembly, was the issue of electronic voting and the mode of party primaries, under Clauses 52 and 87, respectively, of the proposed Bill. The House of Representatives and the Senate had differed originally on the structure and control of electronic transmission of results, but after much pressure from the public, the Senate reversed itself. There was no unanimity on the question of direct primaries,, in and out of the National Assembly.

But why should anyone think that the President is just being clever by half this time around? In 2018, the President refused to give his assent three different times, in such an untidy manner that even the village idiot could figure out that something was fishy and selfish. This year, the President upon receiving the proposed Electoral Act Amendment Bill put in place an internal ruling party mechanism, led by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo to deliberate on the Bill. The party was divided down the middle between the party’s representatives in the National Assembly who want a direct primaries system which they consider more democratic, and the majority of the APC Governors who prefer an indirect party system, also known as the delegates system. The lawmakers thought the Governors were being selfish because the indirect system allows them to dictate, and dominate the process, and thus strengthen money bags and Godfathers within the party. The lawmakers in turn were accused of giving voice to their own insecurities and trying to use the Bill to promote their ambitions. I doubt if anyone has any record of the position of the APC as a party qua party, that is, not necessarily as the majority party in parliament, on the Bill. This was another layer of the uncertainty in what is emerging as the Electoral Bill game. The thing to note is that the APC is one political party out of many.

Subsequently, President Muhammadu Buhari forwarded the Bill to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice for advice. INEC is Nigeria’s electoral body. Whatever mode of party primaries that may be adopted, it would be its duty to provide the oversight framework. The Attorney General of the Federation is the country’s Chief Legal Officer. He advises the President on matters of the rule of law and administration of justice.  What is not clear is that it took both offices a rather unusual length of time to get back to the President. The INEC had originally said that direct primaries would be somewhat expensive, as a greater staff and financial outlay would be required. But when it finally spoke, INEC offered a classical, “your-obedient-servant response. It would do whatever the powers at the top want. Sycophants at work! The Attorney General of the Federation was less evasive in his response. He advised the President to reject the Bill, citing the recommendation of direct primaries as a problem. The mode and method of the President’s handling of the Bill forwarded to him, would not be clever after all, and the backlash would fall heavily on his head and office, if it turns out that the needless delay was engineered by the Presidency, or that this is the beginning of the same back and forth that we witnessed in 2018. We should note this:  Many Nigerians may think that the electoral reform that they demand has not happened or that the Electoral Act Amendment Bill does not fully address their concerns, but there is a feeling out there among the people, that this Bill as is, may well be a good beginning, and so the President was urged to sign it.  Our President clearly objects to that. So, what is next?

It is expected that before it proceeds on its annual end-of-the-year vacation, the National Assembly will this morning, formally present to its members, the President’s decision to veto the Electoral Act Amendment Bill of 2021. So, what is the likely response we should expect? The key option available to the National Assembly as defined, is a matter of law in Section 59 (4) of the Constitution which states that “Where the President, within thirty days after the presentation of the bill to him, fails to signify his assent or where he withholds assent, then the bill shall again be presented to the National Assembly sitting at a joint meeting, and if passed by two-thirds-majority of members of both Houses at  such joint meeting, the bill shall become law and the assent of the President shall not be required.” In other words, the National Assembly can override the President’s veto. Section 59 (4) of the Constitution is in pari materia with Section 58 (5) of the same Constitution.

But will the National Assembly, dominated by the President’s ruling party, the APC, override his veto? I really don’t see that happening. After an initial declaration by Dr. Lawan that the 9^th National Assembly would do whatever the President of Nigeria wants, he has had occasion to back-track a little bit by affirming the independence of the legislative arm of government and the potency of its mandate under Section 4 of the 1999 Constitution, but the persona of this 9th Assembly is that it is at best a rubber stamp of the Executive arm of Government - to be specific, a lackey of the Buhari government!  It probably now faces its biggest test so far, with the President’s rejection of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill. If it simply accepts what the President wants, critics of the administration would have solid reasons to accuse the Presidency of tyranny and the legislature of sheer obsequiousness. A coalition of 70 civil society organizations under the umbrella of the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room thinks that the rejection of the Bill will not “do the country any good.” It will also project the government of the day as being insincere.

We should also be interested in the questions that the President’s decision throws up. One: so, what now happens to other aspects of the Bill, the more progressive recommendations contained therein, such as electronic transmission of results? Two, is the President now kow-towing to the Governors in his party who want to maintain the status quo so they can buy delegates and determine who gets what? Three, is there a connection between this and some people’s 2023 electoral ambition? Are there hidden beneficiaries one way or the other, and the entire country is a victim of some people’s selfish inside baseball? Four, is it indeed true that the proposed direct primaries undermines the Constitution and rights of the political parties?        

One other question: why didn’t the President assent to the Bill and thereafter initiate a process for its further amendment? Focusing on one item out of many, and using same to undermine expectations is not a very clever move after all. In 2023, President Buhari owes Nigerians a major parting legacy: a demonstration that he is truly a statesman whose loyalty is beyond religion, geography or emotions. Will he rise to that high pedestal? And will he even be allowed to do so, if he so wishes, by the hyper-ventilating “spiritual forces” of Aso Rock? President Buhari’s rejection of the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill 2021, may end up as the lowest point of his public career as Nigeria’s President, if care is not taken. 

It was a rather depressing moment, last week, reading the story of a young man, who sat on the rails of the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos and jumped straight into the Lagoon - a case of suicide. He has been identified as Lekan Odunare, 25, married to a 19-year old lady, and father of a one year old daughter.  His body was found a week after the actual incident. I was very uncomfortable reading the story. It was too graphic. The image of a young man sitting at his own chosen departure lounge, locked between that chasm: here and the hereafter, opting for finality, was a different kind of euthanasia, given the public nature of it. One fellow had the effrontery to video-record the mortal crisis, and one other voice could be heard pleading with the man, on the road to death, as he mumbled “asta- gafiru llahi.”  It means:  “I seek forgiveness from God”. And he jumped. And that was it. The mother of his daughter has reportedly said he had been depressed and he had told his family members to take care of his daughter. But why would anyone kill himself or herself? Why would anyone knowing that a course of action is wrong still embark upon it? Why do ordinarily good people commit evil or do wrong - what Phillip Zimbardo calls The Lucifer Effect in a book of the same title.

Nigeria is in the grips of a local pandemic and it is mass psychosis. The experts tell us that since 2015 there has been a sharp rise in cases of suicide, violence, and conflicts in Nigeria. Increasingly, people just decide that they are tired and they seek to end it all. Some Nigerians seek greener pastures elsewhere in the universe but for every person that succeeds, there are probably hundreds that failed. People are losing hope. They can’t cope. They live in a country that holds up few promises. Their leaders play games with their future. The country cannot even provide for the sick. Mental health crisis is a health condition like any other treatable illness. More than 100 years since the first mental health asylum was established in Calabar, Nigeria has no sensible policy on mental health. Stigmas, prejudices persist. We do not have enough mental health personnel or facilities either. Every time a suicide is reported, we all pay brief attention and move on. In a country of over 200 million people, when anything tragic occurs to you, you are reduced to a mere statistic. Nobody may notice that you are dead and gone, except family members. We must put an end to this trend.

March 2017: Dr. Allwell Orji. March 2017: Titilayo Momoh, a textile dealer, 65 years old. November 2018: Sheriff Oladejo, a staff of the Federal Road Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN) May 2019: Ayinla Rilwan.  February 2, 2020: Awolusi Olusegun, 65 years old. Jan. 21, 2020: Ikechukwu Ibeh. Feb 2020: Tayo Dabo, 21-year old graduate of Quantity Survey; December 2021: Lekan Odunare. Names. You probably do not know them. These are the names of persons who either committed suicide or tried to do so at the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos.  Momoh, Rilwan and Awolusi, Ibeh were rescued before they took the plunge but the others jumped into the Lagoon and died. All of them with one exception, who chose the Lekki-Ikoyi link Bridge, preferred the Third Mainland Bridge as their suicide spot. Like the Golden Gate Bridge in San Fransisco, United States, the Jacques Cartier Bridge in Quebec, Canada, and the Prince Edward Viaduct in Toronto, the Lagos Third Mainland Bridge is gradually becoming a suicide bridge. There will be more than enough time to worry about why people are taking their own lives, and why more Nigerians are doing so under the Buhari administration, but Nigeria can begin to show that it cares about the people by setting up a suicide deterrent system on that bridge. The rails are too low. They should be raised. Suicide barriers should be provided. There should be 24-hour security surveillance.  The Bridge is 11.8 kilometres long. Commissioned in 1990, it is the major link road between the Mainland of Lagos and the Island. It has become a symbol of the aborted hopes of many, a Golgotha in the heart of the city of Lagos. Tragic.   

Segun Awosanya, also known as Segalink, is a Nigerian realtor, human rights activist, business consultant, and member of Justice Doris Okuwobi's Panel on the #EndSars. He believes that Nigerian police officers often feel neglected and marginalised by society.

The human rights activist shared their thoughts during an interview with Reuben Abati on City FM 101.5, discussing the issue of police salary increments.

According to Awosanya, police officers often feel neglected in our society. They receive criticism for their mistakes but rarely receive recognition for their accomplishments. This is despite the fact that they face numerous challenges with limited resources, while lower-ranking military officers are exempt from taxes. In contrast, police recruits in Nigeria are required to pay taxes.It's important to bring attention to the disparity between the military's lack of pension and the fact that police officers contribute up to 12% of their salary towards their pensions.So, these are some of the issues that require attention in order for the police to feel a greater sense of belonging and care from the government.
Starting in January 2022, the Federal Government has given the green light to a 20 percent salary hike for police officers.
During the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Wednesday, President Muhammadu Buhari presided over the proceedings in the recently refurbished council chambers. Maigari Dingyadi, the Minister of Police Affairs, shared important information with the media present at the state house.

According to Dingyadi, the review is a direct response to one of the demands put forth by the #EndSARS protesters in 2020. This particular demand focuses on improving the overall wellbeing of police officers.

There are concerns among certain individuals regarding the certainty of the police salary increase being implemented.
Interestingly, the federal government has previously discussed the review of police salary structure on multiple occasions. Specifically, between 2018 and 2021, there were four instances where the government addressed the topic.
When asked about the government's commitment to implementing the salary increase, Mr. Awonsaya responded, "The increment we are discussing is not a mere promise or a gamble."It is a component of the ongoing implementation of the presidential police reform roadmap.

According to reports, police officers have allegedly been receiving a significant portion of their salary from the Nigerian government. This information is expected to be supported by testimonies from the officers themselves.