After the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections, now heavily disputed, Nigeria goes to the polls again on March 18, 2023 to elect Governors and members of state legislatures in 28 out of 36 states of the Federation. There would be no state elections in Kogi, Anambra, Ondo, Imo, Edo, Osun, Bayelsa and Ekiti which are in the off-cycle election belt. However, this weekend’s elections were meant to hold last Saturday, March 11, but the polls had to be rescheduled on account of the disputes that arose from the February 25 Presidential election and the orders given by the Court of Appeal acting as the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal. Three political parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), acting in self-defence in its case, had gone to court to seek permission to be allowed to inspect the materials used for the election by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) which announced the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives’ Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as winner of the election with 8. 974, 726 million of total votes cast. The Presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubaar, and Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party had challenged the results as declared by INEC. The court ruled in their favour on Friday, March 3. By Tuesday, March 7, the ruling APC and its candidate, now president-elect, also sought the leave of court to have access to the election materials. INEC also approached the court requesting that it should vary the order it gave earlier permitting PDP, LP, to inspect election materials, by granting it leave to reconfigure the Bi-Modal Verification Accreditation System (BVAS) ahead of the Gubernatorial and State legislature elections scheduled for March 11.

Counsel to INEC had told the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal that their client would need a minimum of five days to reconfigure the BVAS. As it turned out, the two other matters were determined on Wednesday, March 8. The court granted INEC’s request to reconfigure the BVAS, but it did not rule that this should have any effect on the March 11 date. The Court granted APC its prayers. But in yet another matter, it refused to grant the Labour Party its request to inspect the INEC data base, and oversee the reconfiguration of the BVAS. On its own, after a review of the Court’s ruling, INEC announced that “it was far too late” for the reconfiguration of BVAS to be concluded within two days in over 170, 000 polling units nationwide. Consequently, the Commission rescheduled the Gubernatorial and state Assembly elections till March 18. INEC promised that it would obey the orders of court: grant the petitioners access to inspect election materials, and also upload data to its back-end server and make Certified True Copies of same available to all parties in the matter.

It is now election week again, as Nigerians are expected to troop out this Saturday to participate in state elections. They would be doing so against the background of the drama generated by the elections of February 25. As various international observers have pointed out: Chatham House, Ambassador Mark Green, Ambassador Johnnie Carson, the US Observer Mission, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times, South Africa’s Broadcasting Corporation (SABC), Reuters, YIAGA Africa, The Guardian UK, BBC, Chinese News Agency, Washington Post, Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, the African Union Election Observation Mission to Nigeria, ECOWAS, EU, UN, and the West African Elders Forum (WAEF) among others, the emergent consensus was that whereas the people of Nigeria showed much zeal and determination towards the polls, the entire exercise fell short of the people’s expectations. In other words, INEC disappointed the people. I have already offered a catalogue of the sheer incompetence and poor performance put up by INEC in an earlier commentary (see “Nigeria: February 25 and the Aftermath,”ThisDay, Tuesday, March 7) read that here. Things have gone so bad that in fact the People’s Democratic Party led by its Presidential candidate and other party leaders had to stage a protest from the party’s headquarters to the Headquarters of INEC, on Monday, March 6. They asked for a cancellation of the election, and submitted a protest letter. A week later, the Labour Party in a statement issued by its Chief Spokesperson, Dr Yunusa Tanko, is also threatening to call out its supporters on a peaceful protest to challenge INEC’s refusal to obey the order of Court to allow the party to inspect election materials. Tanko insists that the court order was duly served on INEC and a reminder was also sent to it. But whereas INEC is busy reconfiguring the BVAS, it has ignored other court orders. It has failed to keep its promise. Other political parties are aggrieved. It must be noted that on three previous occasions since 1999 that elections were postponed, Nigeria usually cited either security or logistics reasons: 2011, 2015, 2019, but in 2023, INEC’s excuse is that it has to reconfigure its equipment!

The biggest calamity in Nigeria’s democratic process this time around is the embarrassing conduct of the electoral umpire. The people have lost trust in INEC. The institution suffers a credibility crisis. The worst thing that can happen to any public institution is to end up in the eyes of the same people it is established to serve as a fibbing, clumsy, unreliable institution. Between February 25 and now, INEC has broken virtually all the promises it made to the people of Nigeria, including the ones its Chairman rolled out for effect on the floor of Chatham House in London! INEC’s much-trumpeted confidence in the deployment of technology as enabled by the law and its own guidelines has been shown to be nothing more than an exercise in hypocrisy. On February 25, results from polling units were transmitted to the INEC portal called iREV, but not Presidential election results from the same polling units. More than a week after the elections, INEC could not fully load results unto its portals. Many voters could not get their Permanent Voter’s Cards, the same cards that have been sighted in bushes, forests, in the hands of foreigners and shadowy apartments across the country. INEC could not distribute its own PVCs! The Court of Justice Obiora Egwuatu has now ruled, March 9, in favour of two persons: Kofoworola Olusegun and Wilson Allwell that they should be allowed to vote with their Temporary Voter’s Cards (TVCs), but although the ruling is in personam, the matter having not been filed in a representative capacity, INEC says it will appeal the Federal High Court ruling. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no other electoral process has been this confusing and uncertain.

Those who are familiar with the subject argue that the postponement of the state elections alone comes with “staggering economic loss.” It could also harm voter enthusiasm and voter turn-out rates. The perception that the elections could be rigged at will is a major issue. Galaxy Backbone, Nigeria’s ICT services provider owned by the Federal Government, has confirmed that it had to fend off over 200 cyberattacks during the Presidential and National Assembly elections. Perception is important in any electoral process. Even IT experts believe that INEC is lying when it says it wants to reconfigure BVAS – the same INEC that cannot figure out whatever “technical glitches” that sabotaged its operations more than two weeks after the fact.

Every aggrieved party has been advised to go to the courts, and seek redress through legal and constitutional means. President Muhammadu Buhari has also expressly declared that there is no plan to annul the Presidential election – that is impossible, we are in a democracy - not under military rule. What anyone can hold on to is the general admonition that INEC should by now have carried out a thorough review of the elections of February 25, to understand what worked, what did not, what went amiss, and to learn the relevant lessons and ensure that these are used to deliver a much better process on March 18. But do we ever learn in Nigeria – a country where amnesia is a national malady and rascality seems at once genetic and contagious? INEC is expected to rebuild the people’s confidence. It is in the best interest of everyone that INEC succeeds on Saturday, March 18. The errors of February 25 have pushed the people to a corner where they are poised for war in various parts of the country. The people are determined more than before to defend their votes. Gubernatorial and state legislature elections are mainly local elections, and understandably, they are invested with a higher dosage of emotionalism. The tension in the country is at an all-time high. The thugs who snatched ballot boxes two weeks ago may find that it won’t be easy to do so this week. The battle will be tough and fierce in some of the states: Edo, Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Kogi, Oyo, and especially Lagos.

As was the case in the February 25 elections, ethnicity, religion, power and territory would be big issues. Against all odds, after the vote count in that process, Labour Party which was accused of not having a party structure ended up with more than 25% of the votes in 12 states including the Federal Capital Territory, with 6 winners in the Senate, and 34 in the House of Representatives, coming third in the Presidential Election, which the party says was rigged against it. The Labour Party would seek to consolidate on its February 25 election victories this week. Delta, Enugu, Abia, Rivers, Kaduna, Benue would be major battle grounds for the party. And Lagos in particular, where the Labour Party won majority votes and would want to repeat the feat. The President-elect was Governor of Lagos for two terms. He is the Godfather of the ruling APC in Lagos. To beat him and his party’s incumbent Governor in Lagos is not impossible as the Labour Party has shown, but to do so twice will be quite a feat. And that is why there has been so much desperation in the campaigns in Lagos in the lead up to March 18. The APC has played the ethnic card against the candidate of the Labour Party in a most vicious manner. His offence is that his mother is Igbo. He is also married to an Igbo woman. His grandmother is also said to be Igbo. And he bears Patrick. He bears Chinedu. He speaks Igbo. The ethnic irridentists of Lagos politics have been swearing that Lagos belongs to the Yoruba, it is not a no-man’s-land, and anyone with a small drop of Igbo blood would not be allowed to become Governor. They forget that the Rhodes-Vivour family has been a Yoruba family in Lagos for more than five generations. And those who voted for the Labour Party in Lagos State on February 25 were not necessarily Igbos. They cut across all ethnic groups, and they were probably mostly Yorubas. Those who are targeting Igbos must desist from doing so. They must remember Rwanda, where the politics of ethic hate resulted in a massive blow-out. If they don’t know where Rwanda is, let them remember how ethnic politics catalyzed Nigeria’s civil war.

And for the benefit of those who think Igbo votes would be frustrated by burning markets dominated by Igbos in Lagos, I draw their attention to the Lagos Area Council election of 1950. As reported in the Daily Times of Wednesday, October 18, 1950 to wit: “ELECTION RESULTS: Demo-Labour Alliance Wins: 18 Seats Against Area Council’s 6”. The Demo-Labour Market Alliance won 18 out of the 24 seats in the new Lagos Town Council. Out of these, there were non-Yoruba winners: Nduka Eze in Ward C, Mbonu Ojike in Ward D, Anyiam F. and Gogo, C.N in Ward F. Before then, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo man represented Lagos between 1947 and 1951 in the Legislative Council of Nigeria. It was in this same area called Lagos that Emmanuel Ebubedike from Ozubulu in present-day Anambra State won election in the First Republic to represent Ajeromi-Badagry-Ifelodun in the Western Region House of Assembly. Each time I cite this example, I am reminded that it was Ebubedike who first snatched the Mace in the Western House on May 22, 1962 and turned it into a weapon of assault. He didn’t grab the mace because he was Igbo. Everyone had literally lost their head in the Western Region on that occasion.

In more recent times, a certain Oghene Emma Egho represented Amuwo-Odofin Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives on the platform of the PDP in 2015. The truth is that Lagos is a cosmopolitan melting pot of cultures, tropes and influences and its diversity and accommodative, liberal temper is part of the city’s mystique and essence. It has been reported that some acclaimed Lagos “omo oniles” – the self-styled land-owning families of Lagos are beginning to revoke lease agreements to remind non-Lagosians that Lagos belongs to its indigenous people! It has also been reported that some traditional rulers in Ibeju-Lekki are withdrawing traditional titles that they had conferred on some Igbos in their quarters. All of this just because a Yoruba son whose mother happens to be Igbo wants to be Governor? Absolutely ridiculous. There are no illegitimate children in Africa! It is a good thing that Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, the incumbent Lagos Governor has publicly decried ethnic politics. Other stakeholders in Lagos politics should do the same. The President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, should step forward also to let everyone know that the people of Lagos, both indigenes and non-indigenes have the right to vote for the leaders of their choice.

The security agencies have their work cut out for them. They were conspicuously ineffectual on February 25. The police have been given money and equipment and the necessary support they asked for from President Muhammadu Buhari. The stakes may have been high on February 25. They would be higher on March 18. It goes without saying that the international community is watching. Nigeria’s success is critical for the stability of neighbouring countries and the larger project of democracy, good governance and accountability in African states. INEC and other agencies involved in #NigeriaDecides2023 should not turn Nigeria into the laughing stock of Africa.

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Nigeria held its Presidential and National Assembly elections on Saturday, February 25, 2023 across all the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory. It was the most competitive election since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, the seventh in the cycle. It was also the election with the lowest turn-out: just about 25. 2 million voters voted in that election. Close to one million votes were voided, the declared winner won just about 8.8% of the total votes cast out of 93.4 million registered voters, with a collated figure of 87.2 million registered voters. Many commentators have attributed the low voter turn-out to voter suppression, voter intimidation and the scarcity of money and fuel, although those may not have been serious reasons for voter apathy. The people were enthusiastic, but they were disappointed by INEC’s gross incompetence.

In 1999, voter turn-out was 52.3 %; in 2003, over 63 million voters showed up– that is 69.1% turn out in Nigeria’s Presidential and National Assembly elections of that year; in 2007, the reported figure was 57.5%; and in 2011, 53.7%, with the loser in that election - General Buhari getting as many as a little over 15 million votes. In 2015, the turn-out figure dropped to 43.7%; later in 2019, 34. 75%, The bigger point to be made is that Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election has had the worst turn-out in the whole of Africa in the last decade. In 2017, Rwanda recorded a 98.15% voter turn-out, which was considered the highest in the world.

What we can hold on to is that whereas Nigerians were very enthusiastic about the National Assembly and Presidential elections of February 25, 2023, there were great apprehensions among the people which hindered the eventual outcome of the process. Nigerians now have a President-elect in the person of Senator/Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with the lowest margin of victory in contemporary Nigerian history. The total number of valid votes in this election is not even up to the total number of votes won by just two candidates in previous elections. But what the law states is that the man with the majority of votes and the highest number of votes in two thirds of the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory is to be declared winner. Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution which addresses this is already a matter of contention in both the public domain and the courts. It would be interesting to see how in the course of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunals, this diminishes or enhances the county’s jurisprudence in that regard.

But for now, what we know is that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, winner of the Presidential election of February 25. INEC did not also waste time in giving the Certificate of Return to the APC candidate. We have not seen the same haste with the other elections, the National Assembly elections of February 25 and their legislative winners. None of them has received the Certificate of Return the following day, or nine days after. But the President-elect got his post-haste. He has also since embarked on victory laps to key political figures including the President in his home state of Daura, his wife, supported by other APC wives has visited Mrs Aisha Buhari in Aso Villa, and to cap it all, the President-elect has led a delegation to the Oba of Lagos just to say thank you. Tinubu has since moved into the Defence House in Abuja, the holding bay for a President in waiting. By now, he would be receiving daily security briefings from all relevant agencies of state. In terms of optics, Tinubu himself is already hob-nobbing with the international diplomatic community. He is visiting local traditional rulers and taking messages from foreign diplomats. He has done a victory lap of sorts to Lagos and no one should be surprised if he goes to all principal Yoruba towns and kings. He is playing a game of self-affirmation, laying concrete beneath his “Emilokan” (it’s my turn”) declaration. He has not only managed to win the election; he is already seeking to consolidate the gain by playing a fast game ahead of others. He is striving to establish himself as master and owner of the game.

I think I have a fair idea of what is playing out. The last time I ran for elective office – in the 2019 Gubernatorial race, I recall some wise persons in our camp, telling us at the time, that the way Nigerian politics is played, it is better to win the election and allow other parties and candidates to be the ones to complain. While they are preparing to go to court, you take charge of the victory and take the game to another level. Resort to the tribunal and the courts is constitutionally provided for as the place of last resort for aggrieved politicians, but the received wisdom in Nigerian politics is that if you know your way, that could be difficult to enforce at the gubernatorial level and even more difficult at the Presidential level. Nigerian politicians seem to have this implicit confidence that if you know how the system works, it would be difficult to lose the certificate of return that has been issued to you. The matter is further compounded by the fact that election matters are sui generis. This is a euphemism for the fact that in an election matter, the verdict can go in any direction.

The heavy burden of proof is on the plaintiff to prove that he has been cheated. The courts have a presumption of regularity in favour of the respondent and the electoral commission. The test in election matters is substantial compliance. It is partly why some of the election cases that go all the way to the Supreme Court always produce strange outcomes. In Presidential matters, it would be recalled that the Nigerian Supreme Court has never up-turned any Presidential dispute from Awolowo vs. Shagari to Atiku vs. Jonathan and after. Their Lordships of the Supreme Court always find a way of ruling in favour of the man who already has the Certificate of Return! The ink was yet to dry on the ballot papers before INEC produced and handed over the Certificates of Return for the Presidential election to the President-elect and the Vice-President-Elect as announced for the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The general impression, among Nigerians, with the sole exception of the supporters of the ruling party now declared elected, is that Nigeria’s electoral commission simply keyed into the President-elect’s “emilokan message”. Whereas the technological innovation in form of BVAS – the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System and iREV - the INEC results reporting portal -was supposed to ensure transparency and accountability in form of real-time loading of results from polling units, on election day, the same BVAS process as provided for in Section 60 of the Electoral Act and Clause 38 of INEC’s own Guidelines failed on election day. To be specific, it worked seamlessly for National Assembly elections but failed to upload Presidential elections. The same device, in the same locations, in the same elections conducted on the same day chose to behave in a discriminatory manner due, I suspect, to human error or human failure. But INEC places the blame conveniently on “technical glitches” arising from the fact that this was not an off-cycle election but a general election. The people were assured that the glitches would be fixed by the engineers. Nine days later, INEC was yet to load the results from over 176, 800 polling units for the Presidential election on its portal, the engineers have not fixed anything, and yet they have declared a winner of the Presidential election. It is difficult to dismiss the aggrieved Nigerians who have blamed INEC for imposing something in the shape of “election magic” on Nigerians on February 25. The major political parties that lost out are on their way to the courts. They have asked for the leave of court to inspect INEC documents to put evidence together. The People’s Democratic Party has staged “a black uniform” demonstration in Abuja to show the party’s displeasure.

But would this make any difference? Nigeria is a funny country. Heavens don’t fall around here when people’s expectations are not fulfilled. Not in normal, everyday life. Not during elections. Expectations die daily in Nigeria. The truth is: the people are used to that reality. They hem and haw when they are aggrieved. The same people would later move on, and behave as if nothing is amiss. The psychology of the Nigerian to adapt to everything and anything is one of the major wonders of the world. The APC strategists know this. They believe it. It is why they can beat their chests and boast with the authority of the courts. They have not only been declared elected, they have assumed the authority of the courts. Meet us there! Their confidence is typically Nigerian. In reality, there is no truly independent institution in Nigeria. When you look deeply enough, you’d find some magic lying underneath.

It is okay for the international community to urge Nigerians to seek legal and necessary means to resolve disputes. That is the standard script in these matters as a way of maintaining peace and order. It is even more important to prevent a country of over 200 million from descending into chaos. Nigeria is so delicate and so strategic, you can do just about anything, people can hurt you as they wish, and no matter how, everyone would still beg you to calm down. Hence, the aggrieved political parties are expected to calm down. Only three of the parties are openly aggrieved by the way out of 18 political parties: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP). Only three parties are talking of going to court. Other aggrieved parties like Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress (AAC) have been heard making small noises, but the majority of the other parties, like the Social Democratic Party (SDP) seem to have taken a pragmatic view of the matter. Nobody should be surprised if some of the other smaller political parties show up in court to support the President-elect, and argue that there was nothing wrong with the elections of February 25. No one should be surprised either if INEC finds ways of blocking the access of the aggrieved parties to critical data and evidence.

Those who will be hurt, those to whom Nigeria has happened, after a manner of speech, are those Nigerians who got brutalized before, during and after the election (I hope Mrs Efedi Bina Jennifer’s face has healed – she got stabbed in the face on election day in Surulere, Lagos), those whose votes were never counted because BVAS failed or INEC officials threw away their papers into the bush, or simply refused to upload results, those whose votes were set ablaze because hoodlums seized ballot boxes and set fire to them, those who voted, heard the results at the polling units, only to hear INEC Headquarters later announcing a different set of results. It must be painful to such persons to be told that their choice was determined by “technical glitches”. And now, four days to another round of elections – INEC seeks the leave of court to reconfigure its BVAS. What INEC could not do for months, and in nine days, it wants to do in 4 days? Candidly, no be juju be that? The biggest loser in the just concluded election is of course INEC. For failing the people, it failed as an institution. It lost the people’s trust and confidence. Whatever it does going forward, the people would be full of doubts. I pity Professor Yakubu Mahmood, the INEC Chairman. Whatever reputation he may have had before now, has been thrown out of the window. He won’t be the first INEC Chairman that would end up on the wrong side of history. But he may end up as the most vilified, and go down in history as the man who presided over the most competitive and most disputed elections in Nigerian history since the return to civilian rule in 1999. How does he hope to move about distinguished company when all this is won and lost?

He has now promised to conduct better elections on March 11 – the Gubernatorial and Houses of Assembly elections. The stakes are lower. If the technology – BVAS and iREV - works smoothly on March 11, that would be solid proof that February 25 was truly an exercise in witchcraft. Both ways: INEC and Yakubu Mahmood will lose. It does not matter what they do on Saturday, March 11. They have failed woefully in the court of public opinion. Besides, the security agencies were nowhere to be found on election day. In their presence, unscrupulous voters suppressed and intimidated voters, snatched ballot boxes, set ballot boxes ablaze – most of the reports indicated that the security agencies stood arms akimbo and did nothing. In one report, the police also helped ad hoc INEC officials to thumb-print ballot papers. The police have not reported any arrests nor have they come forward to disown the men who wore police uniforms. The same police collected money and equipment from President Buhari to ensure a hitch-free election. The only security agency that showed up on election day was the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) whose officials arrested persons who moved money about to buy votes or tried bank transfers to influence voters. The only news that came from the Civil Defence was that its officials had an accident on their way to a polling booth. That must have been due to careless driving because there was no traffic on the roads on election day! General Lucky Irabor boasted that soldiers would give anybody who tried to disrupt the elections, “a bloody nose”. Nobody saw the soldiers on duty!

What next for Nigeria, then? I believe it is a good thing to test our laws – the Electoral Act, the 1999 Constitution and INEC guidelines to deepen our democracy and jurisprudence. But I do not think that the courts would up-turn the Presidential election. Judges are also citizens. They know how the game is played. They will not allow themselves to be used as scapegoats when other institutions of state have failed. What we all can hold on to is Bola Tinubu’s promise of conciliation, unity and his agenda for prosperity. We may not have paid close enough attention to his agenda for “restored hope” before now, but it is time to do so. We must take charge of the future, and define for the President-elect what Nigeria needs going forward. Anyone thinking and dreaming that he would relinquish that certificate of return, which he says he regards, as “a world cup trophy” should stop dreaming. For Nigeria, the days ahead are bound to be even more interesting. I wait to be proven wrong.

It is yet another moment of transition for Nigeria as the country goes to the polls in 4 days’ time to elect a new President and members of the National Assembly in what amounts to a seventh cycle of general elections since the country’s return to democratic, civilian rule in 1999. One President will be elected, President Muhammadu Buhari who became President on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015, having completed his maximum two-term limit of eight years is not on the ballot. All the 109 seats in the Senate are up for election as is the case with all the 360 seats in the House of Representatives. The date of this first election is Saturday, February 25.

The second general election is on March 11 for the election of Governors in 28 states and 993 members of State Houses of Assembly, both to be held in 8, 809 wards/registration areas across the country, 176, 606 polling units , overseen by about 1.4 million staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with a total of 93.4 million voters participating. INEC says there will be no election in 240 polling units due to security reasons, voters having tactically avoided the same polling units and having refused to register in the same units– in the North East – 67, South East – 64, North Central – 49, North West – 47, South South – 8 South West- 5. The cancellation of these 240 units without voters is a confirmation of how the challenge of insecurity is one major threat to Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process. The other threats include voter suppression, voter apathy, violence, vote buying, the turbulence arising from the scarcity of new naira notes and fuel, and the general apathy in the land further deepened by high rate of inflation at 21.82%, unemployment – 33%, poverty, and the general high cost of living.

Nigeria goes to the polls this week, tottering on the edge of the cliff. Days to the election, there have been reports of violence in parts of the country as a result of a naira re-design policy introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria in October 2022, to address money supply issues, encourage a cashless economy, deepen financial intermediation, check illicit financial transactions and ransom payment for kidnapping and overall, to boost economic growth but that policy has now resulted in utter chaos. The new re-designed notes are not in circulation in the desired quantities, the return of old denominations of N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes has been problematic, and on top of it all, depositors cannot have access to their money. On the eve of a general election, both the poor and the rich are lamenting that they can’t have access to money. The effect is that there have been direct attacks on banks across the country, Automated Teller Machines, and Point of Sales Centres (POS) have been set ablaze, including offices of the Central Bank. Many have died.

While the CBN claims that it has released new notes into circulation and that an otherwise necessary policy is being sabotaged by the political class looking for cash to buy votes and voters; opponents of the CBN’s policy question the timing of the policy and the difficulties imposed on the people. For many Nigerians, the big issue is not the election, but the politicization of the CBN’s policy on naira redesign. State Governors of the ruling party- All Progressives Congress have gone to court to sue the Federal Government, the CBN, and the President in two different suits. APC Governors and stakeholders are fighting their own government and openly disagreeing with their President. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has asked to be joined as co-defendants through AG Edo State and AG Bayelsa. Can you imagine members of the ruling party fighting their own government days to a general election, and the opposition supporting the President who belongs to the ruling party? The matter comes up tomorrow, Wednesday, February 22 at the Supreme Court, three days to the election as the apex court takes critical decisions if it would. It would prove to be a momentous moment in Nigeria’s 2023 electoral process, given the weightiness of the issues before their Lordships.

Tomorrow, assuming that all the suits have been properly consolidated with all joinders accommodated, and expecting that no one brings another red-herring to further delay the court and the process, their Lordships are expected to make pronouncements on a number of issues viz: (1) whether or not the apex court has jurisdiction to hear the matter in AG Kaduna and ors. vs AG Federation, as originally presented, (2) whether or not there is a dispute between the states and the Federal Government to warrant the apex court’s original jurisdiction; (3) whether or not the original matter should have been instituted at the Federal High Court and not the Supreme Court; (4) whether or not the President of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari can, acting in the interest of public policy, tactically undermine the authority of the Supreme Court as he did in his national broadcast of Thursday, February 16, when he ordered the CBN to continue to release old N200 notes till April 10, in flagrant violation of the extant Order of the Apex court of February 8, reaffirmed on February 15, to the effect that the status quo should be maintained until “the hearing of the motion on notice”. The Supreme Court is yet to hear the motion on notice. Will the Supreme Court “bark and bite” as it has been advised to do, in line with the rules established in State vs Solomon, Abacha vs Fawehinmi, Governor of Lagos State vs Ojukwu, and in line with Section 287 of the 1999 Constitution all of which affirm the supremacy of the order of Court, even if it is a nullity. And what would the Supreme Court have to say about those state Governors who have also similarly overruled the Supreme Court with the Governors in Kogi, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Ogun telling the people in their states to keep spending the old notes whatever anyone says. In many of these states though, the re-designed old notes have lost both street credibility and legitimacy as the people opt to err on the side of caution.

The situation in Nigeria is further compounded, days to the election, by the scarcity of fuel, even if that is easing off. Nigerians are going to the polls this year, angry, hungry and confused. The only rabbit that has not yet been pulled out of the hat is some dubious persons going to court to secure a midnight, black market court injunction as was done in the past, to try to stop the election. Whatever happens at the Supreme Court of Nigeria tomorrow would say a lot about the courage, wisdom and integrity of the present apex court. What Nigerians can hold on to is the continued assurance by the President, Muhammadu Buhari that his administration is committed to seeing the elections through. Having given the same assurance repeatedly, he appears resolute and convincing. Ahead of the elections, he has told Nigerians that the government has the required security measures in place to protect the electoral process and defend the average Nigerian’s right to exercise his or her franchise. The President continues to send across the right signals on both the political process and the naira redesign policy, the ownership of which he has not shied away from, even if when he uses recent opportunities to campaign for the Presidential candidate of his party, the APC, many try to read meanings into the President’s campaign. Nigerians no doubt want to be given the opportunity to make a free choice in the 2023 elections and that they would be given a fair playing ground to do so. What President Buhari is expected to do, is to keep his promise in that regard, and ensure a smooth transition, and his job would have been done.

One other major positive factor as Nigeria goes to the polls is the confidence with which the electoral umpire, INEC, continues to reassure Nigerians that it is indeed ready for the polls, regardless of whatever challenges may have been thrown up in the course of preparations. Despite the scarcity of the national currency, the CBN says it stands firm by the INEC to ensure that any cash that is required for logistics and other payments is made available to guarantee successful polls. Between the last general elections in 2019 and now, more than 50 INEC facilities have been destroyed, attacked, compromised, set ablaze literally by unknown gunmen. INEC materials have been destroyed, generators carted away, permanent voters cards stolen, majorly in the Southern part of the country. There is no evidence of arrests or convictions. Yet, INEC says it is ready. Just like the CBN, INEC has also received the expression of support from the National Security Adviser (NSA), that the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES) has what it takes to protect the polls and the electorate. Hmm. Those who have expressed doubts about the capacity of the security agencies cannot be blamed. The security agencies are the weakest link in Nigeria’s preparations for the elections. Where were these same inter-agency stakeholders when unknown assailants attacked INEC facilities and locations? Why have they proven completely negligent in addressing the threats and reality of violence before the election? The default response in the circumstance is for the Nigerian state to call out soldiers, and in fact the military has also been overheard saying that they are ready for Nigeria’s elections. Hmm. We all need to be reminded ahead of Saturday that this is an election not war! Everyone is behaving as if Nigeria is going to war. Relatives are calling on each other to stockpile food. Many families, especially the privileged ones, have fled to safe havens across the border, in anticipation that Nigeria could descend into chaos. This must not end up as a militarized election.

The good thing about this country, however, is that there are many who are driven by sheer resilience and optimism. Those are the ones who will troop out on Saturday to vote no matter the odds. Since the last general election, a large population of Nigerians have come of age. Between the ages of 18 and 34, they constitute the bulk – more than 40% actually - of the voting population. They belong to the “Speak Out” (“Soro Soke”) generation that came into full reckoning in 2021 during the anti-police brutality #EndSars protests. They want to take their country back, and they constitute the backbone of what has become the Peter Obi movement under the platform of the Labour Party, which Peter Obi and his supporters have built from nothing into a strong force. Many of the persons within this demographic category may have been structurally disenfranchised, but their enthusiasm would be a major point of analysis when a post-mortem of the current season is done. To vote in this election, the Nigerian voter needs a PVC, the only means of voting identification and verification that is recognized by law and the much-acclaimed deus ex machina to Nigeria’s electoral problems called the BVAS – Bio-modal Voter Accreditation System. Sadly, many Nigerians on the voters’ register could not get their PVCs. This all-important item was found in drainage channels, in wrong hands, and in parts of the country, INEC officials made quick trade selling PVCs. Voters complained of frustration and ethnic discrimination. INEC continues to boast that the BVAS is error-proof and that having used it in off-cycle elections, Nigerians can be sure that answers have been provided for electoral fraud and over-voting. The question is - really? The same BVAS, the same technology, that is a matter of dispute in the July 16, 2022 Gubernatorial election in Osun State? The least that INEC can do is to ensure that those Nigerians who have PVCs are able to vote without frustration, and that INEC technology back-end works and that the margin of human error is carefully managed. It goes without saying that a general election is far more complex and demanding than smaller scale, off-cycle elections.

All eyes are watching Nigeria. Oftentimes, Nigerians forget how important their country is, and so they act in an absent-minded manner, leaders and citizens alike. Nigeria is the most populous country in the Black world. It is the largest market in Africa. The country sits atop enormous natural resources, in the sub-soil, the sea-bed and the continental shelf. The country’s only problem is that it is populated by human beings who have failed to move with the times, beyond primordial, centrifugal tendencies. The world is watching and many are interested in Nigeria’s election because any form of disruption in Nigeria could have far-reaching implications and consequences for geo-politics. President Buhari was quoted recently saying that the international community must not intervene in Nigeria’s elections. That statement must have been poorly phrased because in 2015, the same President Buhari then seeking power and office had openly welcomed foreign interest in Nigeria’s politics. He has since corrected himself by playing host to the EU Observation Mission for the 2023 elections. The CBN Governor has even, most recently met with foreign ambassadors in the country. No country is an island unto itself. What we deplore is the grovelling, sycophantic, neo-colonial, ineffectual rush by Nigerian political candidates to places like Chatham House to seek endorsement. Nigeria will be in the news in a more intensive manner until the elections are won and lost. Certain foreign governments, including the US and UK have declared that any Nigerian politician that behaves in an unscrupulous manner will be put on their countries’ black list. We live under a rules-based international community. Politicians, beware, and indeed the politicians are the problem – their greed, selfishness, lack of patriotism and wickedness.

When all this is over and done with, the same professional political class that has been paying scant attention to the Electoral Act 2022, which was expected to be a game-changer and has so far not proven to be so, must learn that the rule of law should be obeyed. There has been no proven regard for the Peace Accords that the politicians signed. Peace must be allowed to prevail. Perhaps, Nigeria must begin to reconsider its system of government. The current Presidential system of government is too wasteful and indulgent. The way forward may well be a return to a parliamentary system of government or a hybrid of the presidential-parliamentary system. In the meantime, let every Nigerian of voting age, with a PVC go out to vote wisely. The future of this country lies in your vote.

In Africa, this year, there would be a total of more than 10 general elections in countries across the continent, particularly Sierra Leone in June, Sudan in July, Zimbabwe in July, Liberia in October,  Gabon in October, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in December but Nigeria’s general election, the seventh in the cycle since the country’ return to civilian rule in 1999 is the bellwether election, given Nigeria’s leadership position in the continent, the country’s population which grants it many automatic advantages from market to political leverage, and that makes it clearly an election that both the local and the international community must worry about. Whatever happens in Nigeria’s elections, this month till March 11, 2023 and thereafter could have implications for the stability of the West African sub-region, and by extension, Africa. The big problem that the international community faces is that major stakeholders in the Nigerian election do not care. They think only of their individual and group, party ambitions. They can’t be bothered by any big picture about Nigeria’s role or place in the world. They are not interested in the country. They just want to win. It is a dangerous scenario, and that is why the grammar of politics in Nigeria has been coloured, characterized, determined by vitriol, hate as well as religious and ethnic extremism. 

People that we consider otherwise sensible, at least on the surface of it, and going by their antecedents, have been threatening that they will either commit suicide or burn down the country’s roof if their principal does not win because it is their candidate’s turn to run the country. That is not democracy, that is psychosis, and no country should be subjected to such end-game.   Who are those scallywags who have appropriated unto themselves the right to dictate who the identity of the next Nigerian President must be? This is majorly the substance of political conversation in Nigeria today. Nobody must be allowed to do that. The people of Nigeria, the 93.4 million voters who are registered for the 2023 general election must be allowed to exercise their franchise and choose feely and wisely, without let or hindrance. 

Those who claim that they will commit suicide if their candidate fails, should please go ahead and do so, having chosen to die in other people’s war, but they must be reminded ahead of the fact, that here in Nigeria, it is a felony to attempt suicide and fail at it. If you want to die because Atiku or Tinubu or Peter Obi or Kwankwaso or any other Presidential candidate does not win, please go ahead and harvest your idiocy. Under section 327 of the Criminal Code, (applicable in Southern Nigeria), it is stated clearly that “Any person who attempts to kill himself is guilty of a misdemeanor, and is liable to imprisonment for one year.” This is on all fours with Section 231 of the Penal code, applicable to Northern Nigeria. It is important therefore that as Dele Farotimi, lawyer and activist, has pointed out in a book of the same title, “nobody should die in their war” that is - nobody should lose their lives because politicians simply want to realize their personal ambitions, the same politicians who want other people’s children to die while they have all taken theirs to safe havens in different parts of the world, the same politicians who are using Nigeria to play games, indeed the same politicians who do not care whether you live or die.  

The big caveat, as Nigeria goes to the polls on February 25, 11 days from today, is: voter beware!  It must be possible for every voter to go to the polls on election day and vote freely. Over the weekend, two incidents occurred that should attract attention and concern. In Eti-Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State, a certain traditional ruler in Igbara community reportedly summoned a meeting of about 60 persons from the community where he told them that every member of the community must vote for “our party”. He directed further, that voters must take pictures of their ballot papers to show compliance, otherwise they would have problems within the community after the election. It was an open threat, no holds barred. The Baale, as such persons are called, even asked the members in attendance to show their Permanent Voters’ Cards. Out of 60 persons, 20 had their PVCs. Notwithstanding, he warned the 20 persons that nobody in the community would be allowed to jeopardize his own future and the future of his children by failing to follow his directive. In a democracy, this is most absurd. How can a traditional ruler arrogate to himself the rights of every member within his domain? That is not democracy, that is feudalism. But does anyone know how many other communities in Nigeria where people have been similarly threatened, in open, undisguised space, places of religious worship where same threats have been issued or professional associations and so on where people have been told to vote according to communal dictates, not their conscience, and to face the consequences if they were to act otherwise? 

The potency of the threat lies in the reality that Nigeria has neither the mechanism nor the personnel to checkmate this. It is not impossible that a few days to this year’s general elections, the contest will be determined not by the people’s choices but by ethnic bigots, shamanists, and clerics of different persuasion who will invoke dubious piety and ask the people to vote in a particular manner. The majority of Nigerian voters do not know any better. They could vote like zombies in deference to what they have been told. Nigeria’s literacy rate is less than 50%; ethnic and religious leaders wield a disproportionate amount of power in Africa’s biggest democracy.

It is for this reason that we must worry more about the threat of violence in Nigeria’s coming elections. Ignorant people, further empowered with election cards, under the influence of corrupt Godfathers could resort to violence at the slightest provocation. They may not even need to be prompted to behave violently. They have been programmed and incentivized to do so.  A drunken, hyper-sensitive political crowd could initiate violence even without being provoked. It is the biggest threat that the world has to pay attention to as Nigeria goes to the polls, and the potency of that threat. Last Saturday, the Labour Party held its mega rally in Lagos, with the party’s Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, Ibo, 61, former Governor of the South East state of Anambra, leading the charge. It was meant to be the final rally to end Obi’s total of 37 rallies across Nigeria. Lagos is one of the most critical states in Nigeria’s general elections with a large voting population. No serious Presidential candidate can ignore the state’s voting bloc. 

Lagos is in the South West, the political stronghold of the candidate of the ruling party - the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu who had also been Governor for two terms and Godfather of politics in the same state since 1999.  Peter Obi daring to hold a final rally in Lagos, was the equivalent of daring to challenge the lion in its own den. Tinubu is widely acclaimed as the “Lion of Bourdillon”, an upscale quarter of Lagos Island. On Saturday, the Lion said nothing. But Labour Party supporters are alleging that the cubs roared, and that those cubs bared their fangs and drew blood.  As of yesterday, over 30 supporters of the Labour Party were said to be on admission in different hospitals across the city, nursing different grades of pain and injury.  Anyone who wore vests bearing Obi’s image or the logo of the Labour Party was attacked. Vehicles were destroyed, stomachs were ripped open, sharp machetes were used to crack skulls and chests open, many sustained injuries.  A determined crowd of Obidients, as they are called still made it to the Tafawa Balewa Square, venue of the rally and managed to express their support for Peter Obi, the most striking revelation of the 2023 electoral process in Nigeria, who built an electoral alternative from nothing into something. He created a movement in the process. 

Nigeria’s Electoral Act at Section 128, thereof, frowns at any attempt to apply threat or to do so directly or indirectly against anyone involved in an election or to inflict serious injury, damage, harm or by any means whatsoever. Section 128 (d) prescribes a fine of one million Naira or imprisonment for a term of three years, in the event of an infraction but the wholesale problem with this electoral act touted as a major game-changer in terms of its provisions, is that no serious attempt has been made to enforce it.  Nigerian politicians have carried on in open defiance of the law and in contemptuous disregard of the legal framework. They have simply continued with their old ways. Even those lawmakers who made the law do not understand it, leading to the controversy in March 2022 over the constitutionality or otherwise, of Section 84(12) of the same Electoral Act. There is no evidence either that the law enforcement agencies know what the law says or care about their law enforcement responsibilities. The law forbids vote buying, but one of the leading topics in Nigeria today is how politicians are struggling to buy votes, through access to old or new notes and how a naira redesign policy on the eve of the elections has frustrated access to cash. 

The law talks about the felony of hate speech, abuse, vitriol and heating up the polity. Nobody cares. The level of verbal diarrhea, hate and abuse in this election is unprecedented. Presidential candidates and their surrogates shoot typhoon missiles from the mouth, and they all use expressions such as “civil war” and “World War III” to characterize a general election. One spokesperson even accused a Presidential candidate of holding meetings with Army Chiefs to precipitate a coup.  The military hierarchy has reaffirmed its commitment to the constitutional order. State security agents have invited the party agent for a conversation! Nigeria is overtaken by tension, uncertainty and anxiety. More privileged Nigerians have fled town till after the elections. They are in the safe quarters of London, Dubai and the Americas, ready to watch the elections from a distance. Only the poor defend Nigeria’s future. The rich run away at critical times, in brazen demonstration of opportunism. When the elections are over, they return to collect positions and contracts from whoever wins and thus make more profits at the people’s expense. The ones who stay behind may or may not vote. Very few big men and their women venture out to vote on election days in Nigeria.

This is why the needless spectre of destruction, death, disaster and injury that attends every election cycle in Nigeria is condemnable and unjustifiable. The country’s electoral commission, INEC lifted the ban on campaigns in September 2022. Since then, indeed since 2019, when the last general elections were held, more than 50 INEC facilities have been attacked in 22 states across the country, placing the commission in a heavily compromised position. The security agencies have not been able to protect INEC offices despite the existence of an Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES). The National Security Adviser advertises ICCES as some kind of great initiative but sorry, we cannot see the impact. I want to hope that none of the agencies involved in that committee has received state funds that they have refused to deploy appropriately. Apart from the attacks on INEC facilities, the political parties especially: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) have all complained about attacks on their members and supporters across the country. This year alone, there has been an attack on the residence of the spokesperson of the Coalition of United Political parties in Imo State.  Peter Obi of the Labour Party and his entourage were attacked after a rally in Katsina on January 24. PDP accused APC members of attacking its members in Lagos on January 27.  APC members in Rivers state reported an attack on them in Opobo and Port Harcourt in January, and on February 9, Dr. Abiye Sekibo, Director-General of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council in Rivers narrowly escaped death when his bullet-proof vehicles were riddled with bullets, two of which got through but missed target.  Just after that incident in Rivers, there was the report of a clash between APC and PDP supporters in Jigawa. There was also a similar clash between both parties in Lagos in the Aiyetoro, Surulere area on January 27, and yet another incident in Osun on January 30. 

What Nigeria is going into looks like war, not an election and that makes it scary. This may affect the efficiency of the electoral body, voter turn-out, and the post-election scenario in the country, especially as the security agencies seem completely overwhelmed and aloof. Labour Party alleges that as the party’s supporters were being attacked in Lagos, security officers simply looked the other way! Nigerians have so badly mismanaged the people’s trust that even law enforcement officers do not want a share of their war.  The biggest loser will be President Muhammadu Buhari whose attempt to define his legacy in eight years will be thrown under the bus. The bigger loser would be the Nigerian people who will suffer the consequences of the derailment of their future, and the uncertainty that accompanies that. 

Nigeria is in a dilemma right now, and that is putting it mildly. Even the shamanists of diverse colours, pastors and the Bar Beach crowd of fortune gazers have not been able to tell Nigerians what the immediate future portends. In a highly superstitious and religious country, religious leaders are as bad as the street thugs. They inflict their own kind of violence that is not even covered by the law. The international community is in a wait-and-see mode. International investors too. Our conclusion is that this country is in urgent need of patriots, persons who would place the country first and above their personal ambitions. The scarcity of that special breed makes all of us look bad. But Nigeria is one country that never crosses the edge of the precipice. We are a resilient people; we always manage to survive. This is probably Nigeria’s moment in the Garden of Gethsemane. But even this shall pass. And please, what happened to all those peace accords Nigerian politicians signed with so much fanfare?  Another hollow ritual? 

Yesterday morning, while on the flagship show of Arise News – The Morning Show- I took special notice during the newspaper review with Emmanuel Efeni and the segment titled “What’s Trending” with Ojy Okpe, of the editorial by the ThisDay newspaper of the day titled: “Interim Government: Perish The Thought”. I pointed out that having been Chairman of the Editorial Board of a major Nigerian newspaper for 11 years, before moving on to other engagements in the public sphere, I am aware that when a newspaper publishes its editorial on the front page, as ThisDay did yesterday, it amounts to screaming, an outcry, a shout out, a call for urgent attention and a signal that the subject being talked about is most important. Ordinarily, a newspaper’s opinion is planned for the editorial pages, but when it jumps to the front page, it means the newspaper’s board considers it a high priority issue.  I argued that the newspaper acted rightly by putting this particular editorial in its window space. I also concurred with all the submissions by the newspaper. The purpose of this piece is to expand the subject further, and develop some of the points that may not have been fully fleshed out in a restricted editorial writing space.

ThisDay pegged its editorial on the declaration by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), last week, in Ekiti, that there is a hidden plan to subvert the 2023 general elections so that an interim government can be imposed on Nigeria. The paper writes wisely: “Although Tinubu did not mention names or elaborate on how this scheme would work, coming from the candidate of the ruling party at the centre, such a weighty allegation is enough for us to warn against any attempt to scuttle the presidential election slated for February 25. Whatever may be behind an idea of interim government, we must remind them that in the Nigeria of today, nobody can get power through the back door or by trying to foist their will on the collective.”  The newspaper argued further that (1) any attempt to short-circuit the electoral process is unacceptable; (2) that three weeks to the elections, the idea of forming an interim government is diversionary and dangerous; (3) that the idea is unknown to the 1999 Constitution and the military cannot be co-opted to support such illegality; (4) that there is no mortal threat to the 2023 general elections, where there are challenges, those challenges must be addressed by the state because it is its duty to do so by addressing the current twin challenges of cash and fuel scarcity and finally (5) the Federal Government must support the electoral umpire, INEC with  logistics including security arrangements while the President is expected to stand firm and protect our  democracy. The newspaper concludes: “Let all those interested in power use the platform of electoral politics and let’s all have faith in the in-built self-correcting capacity of the democratic order.”  I cannot agree more. The editorial is timely and pungent enough. It is worthy of attention and further elaboration. 

The idea of an Interim National Government was a contraption introduced into Nigeria’s grammar of politics and governance by the military administration led by General Ibrahim Babangida when in August 1993, having messed up the general elections of June 1993, Babangida decided to “step aside” (in retrospect, whatever that meant) and chose to hand over power to an interim government headed by Chief Ernest Adegunle Shonekan. The interim government lasted from 27 August 1993 when it was formed till 17 November 1993, less than 90 days when it was dissolved by General Sani Abacha who had been left behind by Babangida as Secretary of Defence, and who thought that becoming a Head of State of Nigeria was his turn, not Shonekan’s. This “Emilokan” thing did not start yesterday in Nigerian politics. Shonekan was a lawyer and a prominent technocrat who rose to the headship of the United African Company (UAC) in Nigeria. He was the product of a deal hatched with the British and other stakeholders.  It all ended in tears. For the 88 days that the ING was in power, the country drifted. Strikes by union workers. High inflation. The media refused to co-operate. The South West media called the government – “fidihe” – in Yoruba language, this means sitting on a chair with one lap of the buttocks, in other words, not sitting properly. 

Pro-democracy groups protested about the rot that Babangida left behind and called for a recognition of the mandate of the Nigerian people that had been won by Basorun MKO Abiola in the annulled June 12 Presidential election. A Lagos High Court in fact nullified Shonekan’s position and declared the ING illegal.  On November 17, 1993, General Sani Abacha, Secretary of Defense, as he then was, forced Shonekan to resign. It was the shortest-lived government in Nigerian history. The Head of the ING could not put up any resistance. He had no control over the troops.  He was a seasoned technocrat, a board room guru, who found himself in the uncharted waters of Nigeria’s power game, far more complex than what suit-wearing, overpaid executives do in air-conditioned board rooms.  He didn’t need too much persuasion for him to drop a resignation letter and embark on a rapid dialogue with his legs. The ING collapsed. Abacha took over. What followed was absolute chaos and anarchy. Nigeria is yet to recover from the agony of Babangida’s folly and Abacha’s tyranny!  

The idea of an Interim Government then was unconstitutional then as ruled by the court of Justice Dolapo Akinsanya of the High Court of Lagos who declared that the Decree No 61, that brought the ING into power was unconstitutional and therefore null and void. It was not only the Constitution that faulted the legitimacy of the ING, Shonekan’s appointment stood on nothing. He was an appointee. He did not gain power through a coup or an election.  He is the only Nigerian leader at the centre, in history, who was not allowed to exercise the powers of a Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.  His exit from power was a major turning point in Nigeria’s century-old relation with the United African Company (UAC), formerly, the Royal Niger Company, a grand symbol of colonialism and imperialism.

The sub-text of the editorial by this newspaper is that history should not be allowed to repeat itself. With the return to democracy since 1999, the kind of impunity with which the military junta treated the laws of the land should not be allowed.  The soldiers may have left the scene, but their civilian successors and the soldiers now wearing flowing, bulbous civilian gowns, have the same mind-set: to do as they wish and subvert the people’s will. In 1993, it was said that General Olusegun Obasanjo, as he then was, was the person who recommended Shonekan, his kinsman for the position of the Head of the ING. It is also being said currently that the idea of an ING is being led by the same Obasanjo. He has a duty to clarify his position on the matter. I share the view that Nigeria does not need an ING. I also think nobody, male or female, should allow himself or herself to be used to subvert the current electoral process. The military thought they could get away with it in 1993, but they could not. They did not. This country does not belong to a cabal, or whatever name they go by – it belongs to all of us, and indeed ordinary Nigerians have a say in the matter.  The sub-text of the editorial by ThisDay newspaper under reference is that any attempt to scuttle this year’s general elections in Nigeria would be an act of sabotage or treason.  And nobody born of a woman, or not of a woman, who claims to be Nigerian should agree to be used as a dummy to mess up this 2023 election process. 

To state the matter as it is, Nigerians have invested a lot in this process. They have queued up to get registered. They have spent weeks trying to get their Permanent Voter’s Cards, (PVCs) which is the only object recognized by the Bi-modal Voters Registration System (BVAS). The deadline for the issuance of PVCs by INEC ended over the weekend, but the desperation exercised in the face of the incompetence of INEC officials, and the protests by the people indicate that this would be an election like no other since 1999. This much was confirmed by a poll result by Nextier, a polling agency which apart from predicting a likely run-off, says there will be a high voter turn-out this year, contrary to suppositions to the contrary.  Billions of Naira have been spent on logistics at national and sub-national levels. Political parties have crisscrossed the country wooing the electorate for votes, chalking up huge costs in the process.  Some of the Presidential candidates even took their campaign to Chatham House in London to seek the endorsement of our former colonial masters.  Some of the Presidential candidates and their acolytes even danced and almost broke a hip at campaign rallies across the country.  Since the flag off of campaigns by INEC in October 2022, the country has witnessed a campaign different from whatever we witnessed before this seventh cycle of elections since 1999. It would be a tragic anti-climax for the government to wake up tomorrow and declare that there would be no election or that an Interim National Government had been formed. We must all be reminded that 1993 is not 2023. The military may have escaped with their folly, but this time around, the civilians in power must learn not to provoke the people. 

Those who are pointing to fuel scarcity and the re-design of new naira notes as an excuse for the imposition of an interim government or potential mayhem, are engaged in deliberate mischief. They do not mean well for this country. President Muhammadu Buhari must see these calls as an attempt to ensure that his administration ends on a very bad note. General Babangida tried the same gambit in 1993. He has not recovered from the damage. President Buhari has promised Nigerians consistently, and that has been echoed by the INEC that the elections will hold as scheduled, and that chosen dates are sacrosanct. Anything to the contrary would amount to gross insincerity and dishonesty and a dark blotch on the Buhari tenure as Nigeria’s President. It is his choice to make but we also have a duty to point out that Nigeria must not be turned into a game of ping-pong. Those who do not want the 2023 general elections to take place are enemies of the people. The Buhari government has no option. This election must hold. Not even the lee-way offered in the Constitution is available in the circumstance. 

Nigeria’s Constitution is very clear about the tenure of elected Presidents and Governors of Nigeria: its four years in the first instance and a second and final term of an additional four year-term. Any form of extension beyond this limit is a violation of the Constitutional order which elected persons swear to defend. In other words, the tenure of an administration cannot be extended by fiat, not even for a day. In that regard, the tenure of Buhari’s administration effectively ends on May 29, 2023.  He cannot stay a day longer. He cannot leave an Interim Government behind. It is in his interest not to leave office as a civilian President who broke the law and left chaos behind. There is a possible outlet in Section 135 (3) of the 1999 Constitution which states that “If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time, but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.”

Section 135(3) or its relation, Section 180 (3) of the 1999 Constitution cannot be invoked under the present circumstances. Nigeria is not physically at war with any country either internally or externally. In fact, one of the selling points of this administration is that President Buhari has been able to checkmate the Boko Haram elements who tried to turn the North Eastern part of Nigeria into a battle-field. Any attempt to use that as an excuse would be an admission of failure. Can Buhari afford to dismantle his own legacy as he defines it in that regard? The only war that others point to is a war between the haves and the have nots: the classical war of the classes between those who cannot have access to new notes and fuel supply, and the vast minority who in the midst of all of this, are living like ants in the midst of honey. The aggrieved are beginning to take to the streets in parts of Nigeria, driving up fears in the country that there may well be a clandestine plan to blow up the country and stop the elections. But that does not amount to any justification to invoke Section 135 (3). If the people are angry over fuel supply, give them fuel – very simple. If there are no new notes – push more money into circulation, that is what the people want. 

The cash scarcity matter has now even become so ridiculous that three Northern state governments are going to court – Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara to seek an order to compel the Federal Government and the CBN to extend the deadline for the validity of the old N200, N500, and N1, 000 notes. The three states are all ruled by members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in a further demonstration of how 18 days to Nigeria’s general elections, the ruling party is locked in intra-party wrangling. In the meantime, an Abuja High Court has barred the President and the CBN from suspending, stopping, or extending the new currency and cash limit policy. The motion ex parte which was filed by the Action Alliance (AA), Action Peoples Party (APP), Allied People’s Movement (APM), and the National Rescue Movement (NRM), against the President of Nigeria, the CBN, the Governor of the CBN and 23 others as respondents was determined in favour of the plaintiffs, and the matter adjourned to 14^th February 2023. Thirteen political parties are also threatening to pull out of the election!  Nigeria is being turned into a “Fuji House of Commotion.”      

In case anyone is tone-deaf, President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure ends on May 29, 2023. He must not spend a day longer in the Presidential Villa. He must not leave any surrogates behind, in the name of an interim government or any such contraption. The National Assembly of Nigeria must not lend itself to any form of mischief, cooked up by the enemies of Nigeria. The minimum that President Buhari is obliged to do is to leave this country as he met it - a civilian democracy, even if badly wounded.   

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Professor Abiodun Adeniyi (Department of Mass Communication, BAZE University, Abuja)

Topic: New Naira Note scarcity and the lingering fuel crisis

Date: February 4, 2023
                         
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Over the weekend, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) decided to extend the deadline for the collection of Permanent Voters Cards (popularly known as PVCs) by an additional week. The PVC collection that was scheduled to end on January 29, was extended till February 5, according to a statement by the INEC National Commissioner in charge of Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye. INEC further extended collection hours by an additional two hours, from 9 am till 5 pm including Saturdays and Sundays. It was the second time within a month that INEC would extend PVC collection deadline. The Commission had earlier fixed January 22, 2023 as the deadline but it then decided at the time to extend the collection till January 29, with the period of collection said to be between 9 am and 3 pm daily, including Saturday and Sundays, at wards and local government centres. Similarly last weekend, Nigerians were informed that the Central Bank of Nigeria had also shifted the deadline for the return of old denominations of N200, N500, N1, 000 Naira notes which had been redesigned by the Central Bank of Nigeria - from January 31, to February 10, with a further extension for return of old notes directly to the Central Bank until February 17.

The INEC spoke on Saturday. The CBN followed suit on Sunday. The immediate effect was that many Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief with fresh expectations that they would be able within the period of the extension get their PVCs, and new notes from the banks. Apropos, many Nigerians have hailed both the INEC and the CBN for listening to the people’s yearnings and for adopting a pro-people stance in both cases. Some of the reactions have been over-laden with an overdose of saccharine. The original purpose of government and its relationship with the people is properly stated in Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution to wit: “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government and (c)the participation by the people in their government shall be ensured in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.” It stands to reason therefore that the government of Nigeria cannot introduce any policy or measure that inflicts pain and suffering on the people of Nigeria or compromises their safety and welfare. The Federal Government of Nigeria under the laws of the land, is allowed strictly to take steps or introduce measures that advance the people’s interest. To the extent that sovereignty belongs to the people – (“we, the people” in the Preamble of the 1999 Constitution), nothing may be done to inconvenience or inflict injury on the people; to do so would be a violation of the spirit and letter of the Constitution with regard to its fundamental objectives and the rule of law. It is therefore understandable that the country’s electoral commission and the apex bank have both reversed themselves, in the course of a weekend volte-face, and hence re-discovered the original purpose of government policy.

The pervasive consensus out there was that INEC’s insistence on a January 29, take-it-or-leave it deadline for PVC collection was beginning to look like a violation of Section 14 (2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution already cited. Before, during and even after the January 22 extension by INEC, most Nigerians complained about the pain and suffering that they were subjected to in their attempt to get their PVCs. The cards were simply unavailable. In parts of the country, INEC officials drove the people from wards to local government headquarters, only to be told that the PVCs were not available. In some wards and local governments, especially in Lagos State, there were allegations of ethnic and religious discrimination. For more than two weeks, persons went to points of collection and they were turned back by unfriendly INEC officials. The evidence in that regard soon flooded the social and mainstream media, in form of reports, live accounts, videos, memes and reports of actual protest and threat of violence in INEC centres from Oluyole in Ibadan, to Oshodi in Lagos to Owerri in Imo State. It was obvious that the Nigerian voter of eligible age was in pain.

This was more so, as the point had been made repeatedly by the INEC Chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood, at every opportunity at home and abroad, most recently at their neo-colonial outpost – Chatham House that the Commission was ready. Even with the attack on INEC facilities by unknown gunmen, the INEC Chair boasted that the Commission’s operations would not be affected. In Abeokuta where hoodlums attacked an INEC facility, he assured the people that INEC had the capacity to produce missing PVCs within 72 hours. The people have seen that these assurances have come to naught. Even the Osun Gubernatorial election that the INEC used to tout as concrete evidence of the assuredness of its processes has just unraveled with the Election Petition Tribunal raising questions about INEC technology and over-voting in 744 polling units in 10 Local Government Areas in that election. And yet since the return to democratic rule in 1999, this is meant to be an election like no other. The people have been no more determined to exercise their franchise. They see their inability to get a PVC, as an attempt by the state to disenfranchise them. This is why some people have threatened to commit suicide if they are not allowed to vote. This is why there is violence or threats of violence in PVC collection centres. The matter is made worse by the fact that INEC officials have been accused of hoarding PVCs, and also deliberately asking for bribes before they could release voters’ cards. Videos have been circulated - of INEC officials, ad hoc, or formal, soliciting for bribes. This is scandalous. INEC cannot afford to have rogue elements among its ranks if it hopes to conduct credible elections. The least that can be said for now, 24 days to the February election is that the optics look really bad. The extension of the deadline for the collection of PVC would be completely meaningless and ineffectual, if despite the extension INEC officials on the streets are still giving the same excuses.

There is also the unresolved problem of students who registered in their various home constituencies during the prolonged eight-month long academic union strike but have since returned to school in distant places. Such students have been automatically disenfranchised. Even if they are willing to rush back home to get their PVCs, there is no guarantee that they can get the card, even after two weeks of trying. There are also other constraints: fuel scarcity, the high cost of transportation and the deadly risk of travelling in Nigeria by rail, road or air. This is why it makes better sense for Nigeria to have a harmonized data system that makes it possible for Nigerians to vote with just one means of identification, not the 19th Century system that we still maintain for the identification of the electorate. Still, something has to be done about rogue INEC officials. Before now, INEC said it had arrested some of its official involved in the manipulation of the voters’ register. The same treatment must be meted out forthwith to those officials who are sabotaging the PVC collection process. Part VII of the Electoral Act 2022 deals with “Electoral Offences”. Section 120 of the Act specifically addresses the subject of “dereliction of duty” by “any officer”. Section 121 talks about “bribery and conspiracy”. Both sections of the Act prescribe stiff penalties. But nobody is enforcing the law! INEC is very long on promises and extremely short in execution!

As it is with INEC with regard to the distribution and release of PVCs, so it is with the CBN and collection of old notes through the banks and the release of new denomination notes of N200, N500, and N1, 000. Two days before the volte face, the CBN had been most adamant in stating that there would be no extension of the deadline because it had acted perfectly within the law which is of course true within the purview of the relevant provisions of the CBN Act of 2007 – Sections 2(b), 17, 18, 19, and 20 (1) thereof which read together grant the CBN the powers to design monetary policy, print and redesign, and even change currency, with recourse in stated instances to the President of Nigeria in Section 19 of the same Act. In all that it did, the CBN had the support of the President in addition to the fact that the enabling law grants it the Independence to determine monetary policy. Further, the 90 days window for the return of old denominations in circulation was within the purview of the law. So why did the CBN change its mind? Why did it bow to pressure that came from all directions including the Presidential candidates of the two main political parties – PDP and APC, the National Assembly and the generality of Nigerians who felt that the policy was punitive in execution and that as established earlier no policy should violate the security and welfare of the people?

Whereas the CBN pointed out that the naira redesign policy was in the best interest of the people, to check terrorism financing, counterfeiting, imbalances in the fiscal space with about N2.7 trillion out of the N3.23 trillion in circulation in people’s homes, and abuse of the Naira, Nigerians felt that the suffering induced by the policy was undeserved. The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele reported that more than N1.9 trillion had been returned to the system with a success rate of over 75% but in return the people could not get the new notes! By weekend, with the deadline of January 31 approaching, the banks still dispensed old notes! The CBN kept saying that it had released more than enough new notes but they were nowhere to be found either in banking halls or at ATM machines, except in the hands of merchants of new naira notes at social events and party centres and in the hands of their patrons who continued in open defiance of the law (section 21 of the CBN Act which appears to be a dead law) to the discomfiture of many Nigerians who watched in disbelief at the effect of a wonky, disconnected process. By January 26, churches and many retail outlets had put out the message that they would no longer collect old notes in the affected denominations. In many churches, last Sunday, ushers were told not to ever allow anybody drop old notes into the offering collection bag. Not even the toddlers in Sunday School were spared. They were instructed in one church that I know to take old notes back to their parents. Bureau de change operators all said they had no new Naira notes, not even the ones that were not redesigned. In many ATMs across the country, able-bodied men took the matter into their hands, and engaged in fisticuffs over access to the very few ATMs that dispensed new notes. It didn’t matter that no ATM could dispense anything more than N20, 000 at a time.

By Monday morning, there was violence in some banks caused by the long queues of customers looking for money. In some parts of Nigeria, even wedding ceremonies could not hold because nobody was going to accept old notes as bride price! In rural areas, the under-banked population for whom the CBN introduced a cash swap policy decided to wait and see. No matter how well-meaning the CBN could have been, its policy was going to result in a break-down of law and order. The advertised extension till February 10 is most expedient. It came as a big relief to aggrieved Nigerians. But will they get the new notes?

The CBN Governor has been shown on tape reporting that the heads of the CBN, EFCC, ICPC, the Nigeria Financial intelligence Unit, the DSS and other security agencies have held a meeting and resolved to work together to apprehend persons who are sabotaging CBN guidelines on the naira redesign policy. Indeed yesterday, the DSS arrested some organized syndicates selling new Naira notes. I hope some bank managers were among those arrested. The security agencies should also take a close look at CBN officials because this kind of open sabotage and effrontery cannot take place without collusion at the highest levels. INEC officials are selling PVCs! Bankers are selling new Naira notes! We live in a country where whatever policy the government comes up with, there will always be persons who are determined to circumvent the policy for profit motives. This is the problem with Nigeria. The CBN extension would only be meaningful if the people can get new notes.

There is the additional matter that has been raised by the House of Representatives ad hoc committee led by Hon Al Hassan Doguwa on the matter. The lawmaker says the House is determined to issue a warrant of arrest for the CBN Governor, because the CBN has broken the law and the Governor is refusing to appear before the House. Both Doguwa and the Speaker, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamiala, insist that the CBN has violated Section 20(3) of the CBN Act, and that under Section 89(1) of the 1999 Constitution and Order 19(2) of the Standing Orders of the House, they have the right to ask that the CBN Governor be arrested by the Inspector General of Police. I sincerely believe that the House of Representatives is grandstanding. They can issue a warrant of arrest as they did a resolution, but the effect may be no more than symbolic. The police that should arrest the CBN Governor reports directly to the President of Nigeria – Sections 215 and 216 of the Constitution. The same President that has taken personal ownership of all that the CBN has done. In days to come, some persons may go to court to seek an interpretation of Section 20(3) and Section 22 of the CBN Act, and throw up more conundrums, but the problem is that our laws are often so woolly that anybody can cherry pick as convenient and avoid a community reading that is recommended as standard practice. Our laws need to be more specific and categorical. But has the CBN not anticipated and side-stepped that possible controversy by granting an additional seven days for the return of old notes to the Central Bank? I think it has.

Finally, it is worth noting that in November 2016, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a similar policy to take “black money” out of circulation in India. The government gave only a four-hour notice for the withdrawal of all 1,000 rupees and 500 rupees. It caused confusion because it came as a shock. It was shrouded in secrecy. New notes were scarce. There were queues all over India. Modi held his ground. He said he needed to fight tax evasion and corruption. The people endured the hardship. He got away with it. The only difference is that the Indians trusted their government. Nigerians have learnt to doubt their own government. This is the crux of the matter.

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Mrs Funke Egbemode, former Commissioner for Information, Osun State

Topic: : Election Petitions Tribunal Verdict In Osun Guber Elections: Matters Arising

Date: January 28, 2023
                         
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Nigerian sensational singer, Temilade Openiyi, popularly known as Tems, has made history as the first Nigerian artist to earn an Oscar nomination.
Naija News reports that the nomination list for the 2023 Oscar awards was released on Tuesday, January 23, 2023, with Tems making Nigerians proud.

Tems was nominated for her contribution as a songwriter on ‘Lift Me Up’ one of the soundtracks on Marvel’s ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’.

Voting for the 2023 Oscars will run from March 2nd -7th as the award holds on Sunday, March 12 at the Dolby Theater and it will be hosted by comedian and talk show host Jimmy Kimmel.

See the full nomination list below.

Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler

Colin Farrell

Brendan Fraser

Paul Mescal

Bill Nye

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett

Ana de Armas

Andrea Riseborough

Michelle Williams

Michelle Yeoh

Directing

Martin McDonagh

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

Steven Spielberg

Todd Field

Ruben Ostlund

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Documentary Feature Film

All That Breathes

All The Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther

Top Gun: Maveric

Documentary Short Film

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year

Stranger at the Gate

Animated Short Film

The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Women Talking

Music (Original Song)

Applause

Hold My Hand

Lift Me Up

Naatu Naatu

This Is A Life