Mallam Nasir El-Rufai may have emerged as the Disrupter-in-Chief in the plot to stop a second term for President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

 
Just two days after defecting from the All Progressives Congress, APC, to the Social Democratic Party, SDP, the former Kaduna State governor was already, according to analysts, fully acting his new role.

Last Wednesday, supporters of El-Rufai stormed the Abuja National Headquarters of the SDP with placards, calling for the exit of Dr Olu Agunloye as National Secretary.

The protesters, who carried placards, accused Agunloye of fraud. Agunloye is being tried in court over an alleged $6b fraud relating to the Mambilla power project.

The shocking sight of the new party members turned protesters forced Agunloye to petition the Inspector General of Police for police protection.

However, Sunday Vanguard reports that the demand for Agunloye’s exit appears to be mainly championed by some allies of El-Rufai who fear that the SDP’s National Secretary’s past links to Tinubu and, if not, ethnic identity would hinder the political goal of stopping the president from a second term.

“The El-Rufai people feel that it would be illogical to have somebody from the South-West hold that critical position of National Secretary when you are fighting against the second term quest of somebody from the South-West,” a source privy to the development said.

Plan B

The fight within the SDP following the entry of El-Rufai only reflects the fears of many over the prospects of the opposition against Tinubu who mounted the presidency in 2023 despite the challenges he got from within the Muhammadu Buhari presidency and the majority of the party’s governors.

Besides the suspicions around Agunloye, political actors are also raising suspicions that Tinubu may have gone ahead of El-Rufai into the SDP.

 
That claim, according to some political watchers in Abuja, flows from the fact that the SDP has been mentioned as the famous Plan B that Tinubu hoped to fall back to had he not won the APC presidential ticket in 2022.

Sunday Vanguard reports that in the approach to the APC presidential convention in 2022 that there were unverified reports that Tinubu was considering using the SDP platform to actualise his ambition following the perceived threats he was getting at that time from agents of the Buhari regime.

However, whatever his actions in the SDP, stakeholders believe that the party may not be the last bus-stop for El-Rufai and his collaborators in the plot to stop Tinubu’s second term.

2022 incitement
The falling out with Tinubu despite his yeo-man role in rallying northern governors to back Tinubu at the last minute is generally perceived as a payback by Tinubu’s associates following his previous engagements incitements prior to 2022.

The former governor had, in 2019, boasted of how he defeated godfathers in Kaduna and urged Tinubu’s foes in Lagos to do the same.

 
Turning point

However, the turning point in their relationship was just before the 2022 presidential primary when El-Rufai pulled away from the plots against Tinubu to back the former Lagos State governor as the APC candidate.

That decision, according to many, was based on real politics.

He knew that Tinubu was about the only one with the financial muscle in the South to wrest the presidency and he quickly jumped on board.

Tinubu appreciated El-Rufai’s gesture and publicly begged him to play a role in his government.

The former governor was said to have jettisoned his plans to proceed abroad for further studies to head the new government’s energy team.

 
However, the plan unfolded when the Senate refused to clear him based on a “security issue”.

A Senate source told Sunday Vanguard that contrary to claims that there was a security report against El-Rufai, nothing of such was produced.

A senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Sunday Vanguard: “What we were told by Senate President Akpabio was that there was a security issue with El-Rufai from the Department of State Service, DSS, but he did not circulate the report”.

That was, however, an unconventional route as many recall that in the past that DSS reports on nominees were circulated among senators. The case of Mr Ibrahim Magu, a nominee for the office of the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, who was repeatedly refused clearance by the Senate in part based on contradictory security reports from the DSS, was cited.

The allegation that Tinubu didn’t want El-Rufai in his government, despite the nomination, is something that has rubbed off negatively on the former governor.

 
He is also concerned by the insinuation of a security question around him and it was gathered that El-Rufai may go to court to force Akpabio to produce the security report.

A source in the opposition privy to the ongoing developments confirmed that El-Rufai is not contesting any elective position in 2027, but is focused on mobilising against the Tinubu second term agenda.

“What he is interested in is sending Tinubu and his people back to Lagos,” one prominent associate of former VP Atiku Abubakar who contested the 2023 presidential election but lost to Tinubu, and now relating with El-Rufai told Sunday Vanguard.

Advantage

While the former governor is not very popular with the grassroots, his capacity for organisation is one that gives him advantage in the camp of the opposition.

Besides, El-Rufai, who played a key role in persuading northern governors to support Tinubu during the 2022 presidential primary of the APC, is said to be in regular touch with some of the northern governors.

 
Remarkably, El-Rufai, who helped to damage Mr Peter Obi in 2022/3 in realisation that the leader of the Obedient Family and the candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election would be on the 2027 ticket one way or the other, has already started inclining towards him.

In the clearest indication to that, his son, Bashir, issued a tweet on Monday on how his former party, APC, deceived him about the good qualities of Peter Obi.

Whatever, suggestion that the SDP would be the final bus-stop for the opposition coalition appears unlikely.
The 2023 presidential candidate of the party, Adewole Adebayo, in an interview on a television station on Friday, reiterated his intention to again contest, indicative of a split among the opposition coalition.

While emphasising his determination to contest the 2027 presidential election irrespective of those joining the party, he said: ”Let us understand something. I don’t worry about that; everybody who is coming in knows I will run in 2027.”

A source in the opposition camp was, however, dismissive of the suggestion of the SDP being the vehicle to be used against Tinubu’s second term in 2027.

 
“It is neither here nor there. We are not pushing the narrative of persons or parties, but rather a bonding to produce victory,” the source revealed.

Niger Republic has turned to Nigeria for help after being hit by fuel shortage.

The West African country reached out to Nigeria despite months of diplomatic tensions and hostile rhetoric.

Sunday PUNCH learnt that a delegation of senior officials of the military junta travelled down to Abuja to meet Federal Government representatives.

At the end of the deliberation, 300 trucks of Premium Motor Spirit were reportedly approved for delivery to the country.

A senior government official aware of the development said Nigeria approved the deal with the hope of using it as a “strategic bargaining tool” in ongoing negotiations with Niger.

According to the official, the delegation explained that Niger had been reliant on fuel from a Chinese refinery.

However, due to issues with the supplier, the refinery was shut down, leaving the country with limited options.

Our correspondents gathered that Niger turned to Nigeria after the fuel shortage problem became critical. However, the details of the arrangement are said to be secret.

“We do not want to blow our trumpet. Rather, we want to use it as a bargaining chip for negotiation, as we continue to engage with them to bring them back to ECOWAS.

“Let them get more from us. I am confident that gradually they will come back to ECOWAS because they do not have enough resources to import food to sustain their citizens,” the source added.

Officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited said the deal could have been done by the Presidency, as the national oil firm now operates as a limited liability company.

Similarly, a source at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery declined comments due to diplomatic concerns.

The Presidency also declined comments on the matter.

Niger fuel crisis

Sunday PUNCH gathered that the fuel crisis in Niger reached alarming proportions last week after a litre of petrol sold for N8,000 in some parts of the country.

Findings by our correspondents in Sokoto State, which shares a border with Niger, showed that the price of petrol varied depending on the distance from Nigeria.

A transborder businessman from Nigeria, Mallam Abubakar Usman, said, “There is serious scarcity of fuel in the country. It depends on where one is getting the fuel.

“In Konni, the border town between Nigeria and Niger, you can get a litre at 1,200 CFA, which is about N2,500. If you go to Agadez, the same litre of fuel is 3,000 CFA, equivalent to N7,500 per litre. In Arilit, a local government under Agadez, which is the border town between Niger and Algeria, it is 3,500 CFA, which is about N8,750 when converted to our currency.”

Usman attributed the scarcity to the deteriorating relationship between Nigeria and Niger.

An official of the Nigerian Immigration Service, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that some trucks carrying petrol were sighted passing through the border.

Niger-China oil firm clash

The fuel crisis in Niger may have been self-inflicted after a confrontation between the ruling junta and Chinese oil companies which had long dominated the country’s petroleum sector.

A security analyst, Zagazola Makama, in an article he published on X, revealed that trouble began in March 2024 when the China National Petroleum Corporation granted the Nigerien government a $400m advance, using future crude oil deliveries as collateral.

The deal was to help Niger cope with crippling economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following the July 2023 coup in the country.

However, when it was time to repay the debt, the junta was cash strapped.

Instead of negotiating, the military rulers were said to have decided to strong-arm China, slapping an $80bn tax demand on Soraz (Zinder Refinery Company) despite the state-owned Sonidep already owing Soraz a staggering $250bn.

According to Makama, when China refused to provide additional loans, the junta retaliated by expelling Chinese oil executives from the country and seizing Soraz’s bank accounts.

The decision was said to have backfired and led to the collapse of Niger’s petroleum sector, which is heavily reliant on Chinese expertise and investment.

The Soraz refinery, the lifeline of Niger’s fuel supply, ground to a halt, and fuel shortages spread like wildfire.

But the Commercial Director of the state-owned Nigerien Company for Oil Products (Sonidep), Maazou Aboubacar, told AFP that the Soraz refinery in Zinder could no longer satisfy domestic demand.

According to him, the reason is principally down to the drying up of the flourishing black market supplied from Nigeria.

The country’s refinery only provides Sonidep with 25 tanker trucks of petrol a day, when the daily national requirement is up to twice that.

Domestic consumption was said to have been boosted by a cut in fuel prices introduced by the military regime that seized power in Niger in 2023.

Nigeria the good neighbour

Niger Republic’s Head of State, Brig. Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, had accused Nigeria of colluding with France to destabilise his country through the terror group, Lakurawa.

Speaking in Hausa in December 2024, Tchiani claimed that there were plans to establish a terrorist training camp in Gaba Forest, near Sokoto, as part of a supposed agreement between France and the Islamic State West Africa Province.

He further alleged that Nigerian authorities were aware of these developments.

The Federal Government denied the allegations.

In February 2025, Niger reportedly stopped some Nigerians from entering into its cities because they carried ECOWAS passports.

Makama, the counter- insurgency expert, said despite the false accusations and diplomatic snubs, Nigeria stepped in to help Niger with fuel which had been crossing into the country to ease the crisis.

While sharing videos of some of the fuel trucks going into Niger, he said the junta remained too proud to admit its dependency.

“While fuel shipments from Nigeria have already started alleviating the crisis, Niger’s state media has deliberately avoided reporting where the fuel is coming from. Instead, the government has attempted to portray the fuel availability as a result of its own internal measures, a claim that many Nigeriens are beginning to question,” he said.

Nigeria supplied 13.5 million litres of petrol

Reacting, oil marketers said although they were not aware of the deal, the export of 300 tankers to Niger Republic would amount to about 13.5 million litres of petrol.

It was calculated that 300 of 45,000-litre capacity trucks is about 13.5 million litres of petrol to be exported to Niger Republic.

The dealers, however, stated that Nigeria had enough to save the junta-led country from the current fuel crisis rocking it.

According to marketers, Nigeria may have passed the days of fuel scarcity as it now has the Dangote refinery, the Port Harcourt refinery, and others producing fuel locally even as importers bring more from other countries.

The National Vice President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Hammed Fashola, said he was aware of the fuel crisis in Niger Republic, adding that Nigeria had enough to bail out the country.

“I will not say we don’t have that capacity with the refineries we have in the country. I think we have enough to supply Niger Republic,” the IPMAN Vice President said.

Similarly, the National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, agreed that the country had enough PMS to help its neighbours without running into any crisis.

“If we have a diplomatic reason for that, it is doable,” Gillis-Harry asserted.