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Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Professor Abiodun Adeniyi (Department of Mass Communication, BAZE University, Abuja)

Topic: New Naira Note scarcity and the lingering fuel crisis

Date: February 4, 2023
                         
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Over the weekend, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) decided to extend the deadline for the collection of Permanent Voters Cards (popularly known as PVCs) by an additional week. The PVC collection that was scheduled to end on January 29, was extended till February 5, according to a statement by the INEC National Commissioner in charge of Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye. INEC further extended collection hours by an additional two hours, from 9 am till 5 pm including Saturdays and Sundays. It was the second time within a month that INEC would extend PVC collection deadline. The Commission had earlier fixed January 22, 2023 as the deadline but it then decided at the time to extend the collection till January 29, with the period of collection said to be between 9 am and 3 pm daily, including Saturday and Sundays, at wards and local government centres. Similarly last weekend, Nigerians were informed that the Central Bank of Nigeria had also shifted the deadline for the return of old denominations of N200, N500, N1, 000 Naira notes which had been redesigned by the Central Bank of Nigeria - from January 31, to February 10, with a further extension for return of old notes directly to the Central Bank until February 17.

The INEC spoke on Saturday. The CBN followed suit on Sunday. The immediate effect was that many Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief with fresh expectations that they would be able within the period of the extension get their PVCs, and new notes from the banks. Apropos, many Nigerians have hailed both the INEC and the CBN for listening to the people’s yearnings and for adopting a pro-people stance in both cases. Some of the reactions have been over-laden with an overdose of saccharine. The original purpose of government and its relationship with the people is properly stated in Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution to wit: “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government and (c)the participation by the people in their government shall be ensured in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.” It stands to reason therefore that the government of Nigeria cannot introduce any policy or measure that inflicts pain and suffering on the people of Nigeria or compromises their safety and welfare. The Federal Government of Nigeria under the laws of the land, is allowed strictly to take steps or introduce measures that advance the people’s interest. To the extent that sovereignty belongs to the people – (“we, the people” in the Preamble of the 1999 Constitution), nothing may be done to inconvenience or inflict injury on the people; to do so would be a violation of the spirit and letter of the Constitution with regard to its fundamental objectives and the rule of law. It is therefore understandable that the country’s electoral commission and the apex bank have both reversed themselves, in the course of a weekend volte-face, and hence re-discovered the original purpose of government policy.

The pervasive consensus out there was that INEC’s insistence on a January 29, take-it-or-leave it deadline for PVC collection was beginning to look like a violation of Section 14 (2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution already cited. Before, during and even after the January 22 extension by INEC, most Nigerians complained about the pain and suffering that they were subjected to in their attempt to get their PVCs. The cards were simply unavailable. In parts of the country, INEC officials drove the people from wards to local government headquarters, only to be told that the PVCs were not available. In some wards and local governments, especially in Lagos State, there were allegations of ethnic and religious discrimination. For more than two weeks, persons went to points of collection and they were turned back by unfriendly INEC officials. The evidence in that regard soon flooded the social and mainstream media, in form of reports, live accounts, videos, memes and reports of actual protest and threat of violence in INEC centres from Oluyole in Ibadan, to Oshodi in Lagos to Owerri in Imo State. It was obvious that the Nigerian voter of eligible age was in pain.

This was more so, as the point had been made repeatedly by the INEC Chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood, at every opportunity at home and abroad, most recently at their neo-colonial outpost – Chatham House that the Commission was ready. Even with the attack on INEC facilities by unknown gunmen, the INEC Chair boasted that the Commission’s operations would not be affected. In Abeokuta where hoodlums attacked an INEC facility, he assured the people that INEC had the capacity to produce missing PVCs within 72 hours. The people have seen that these assurances have come to naught. Even the Osun Gubernatorial election that the INEC used to tout as concrete evidence of the assuredness of its processes has just unraveled with the Election Petition Tribunal raising questions about INEC technology and over-voting in 744 polling units in 10 Local Government Areas in that election. And yet since the return to democratic rule in 1999, this is meant to be an election like no other. The people have been no more determined to exercise their franchise. They see their inability to get a PVC, as an attempt by the state to disenfranchise them. This is why some people have threatened to commit suicide if they are not allowed to vote. This is why there is violence or threats of violence in PVC collection centres. The matter is made worse by the fact that INEC officials have been accused of hoarding PVCs, and also deliberately asking for bribes before they could release voters’ cards. Videos have been circulated - of INEC officials, ad hoc, or formal, soliciting for bribes. This is scandalous. INEC cannot afford to have rogue elements among its ranks if it hopes to conduct credible elections. The least that can be said for now, 24 days to the February election is that the optics look really bad. The extension of the deadline for the collection of PVC would be completely meaningless and ineffectual, if despite the extension INEC officials on the streets are still giving the same excuses.

There is also the unresolved problem of students who registered in their various home constituencies during the prolonged eight-month long academic union strike but have since returned to school in distant places. Such students have been automatically disenfranchised. Even if they are willing to rush back home to get their PVCs, there is no guarantee that they can get the card, even after two weeks of trying. There are also other constraints: fuel scarcity, the high cost of transportation and the deadly risk of travelling in Nigeria by rail, road or air. This is why it makes better sense for Nigeria to have a harmonized data system that makes it possible for Nigerians to vote with just one means of identification, not the 19th Century system that we still maintain for the identification of the electorate. Still, something has to be done about rogue INEC officials. Before now, INEC said it had arrested some of its official involved in the manipulation of the voters’ register. The same treatment must be meted out forthwith to those officials who are sabotaging the PVC collection process. Part VII of the Electoral Act 2022 deals with “Electoral Offences”. Section 120 of the Act specifically addresses the subject of “dereliction of duty” by “any officer”. Section 121 talks about “bribery and conspiracy”. Both sections of the Act prescribe stiff penalties. But nobody is enforcing the law! INEC is very long on promises and extremely short in execution!

As it is with INEC with regard to the distribution and release of PVCs, so it is with the CBN and collection of old notes through the banks and the release of new denomination notes of N200, N500, and N1, 000. Two days before the volte face, the CBN had been most adamant in stating that there would be no extension of the deadline because it had acted perfectly within the law which is of course true within the purview of the relevant provisions of the CBN Act of 2007 – Sections 2(b), 17, 18, 19, and 20 (1) thereof which read together grant the CBN the powers to design monetary policy, print and redesign, and even change currency, with recourse in stated instances to the President of Nigeria in Section 19 of the same Act. In all that it did, the CBN had the support of the President in addition to the fact that the enabling law grants it the Independence to determine monetary policy. Further, the 90 days window for the return of old denominations in circulation was within the purview of the law. So why did the CBN change its mind? Why did it bow to pressure that came from all directions including the Presidential candidates of the two main political parties – PDP and APC, the National Assembly and the generality of Nigerians who felt that the policy was punitive in execution and that as established earlier no policy should violate the security and welfare of the people?

Whereas the CBN pointed out that the naira redesign policy was in the best interest of the people, to check terrorism financing, counterfeiting, imbalances in the fiscal space with about N2.7 trillion out of the N3.23 trillion in circulation in people’s homes, and abuse of the Naira, Nigerians felt that the suffering induced by the policy was undeserved. The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele reported that more than N1.9 trillion had been returned to the system with a success rate of over 75% but in return the people could not get the new notes! By weekend, with the deadline of January 31 approaching, the banks still dispensed old notes! The CBN kept saying that it had released more than enough new notes but they were nowhere to be found either in banking halls or at ATM machines, except in the hands of merchants of new naira notes at social events and party centres and in the hands of their patrons who continued in open defiance of the law (section 21 of the CBN Act which appears to be a dead law) to the discomfiture of many Nigerians who watched in disbelief at the effect of a wonky, disconnected process. By January 26, churches and many retail outlets had put out the message that they would no longer collect old notes in the affected denominations. In many churches, last Sunday, ushers were told not to ever allow anybody drop old notes into the offering collection bag. Not even the toddlers in Sunday School were spared. They were instructed in one church that I know to take old notes back to their parents. Bureau de change operators all said they had no new Naira notes, not even the ones that were not redesigned. In many ATMs across the country, able-bodied men took the matter into their hands, and engaged in fisticuffs over access to the very few ATMs that dispensed new notes. It didn’t matter that no ATM could dispense anything more than N20, 000 at a time.

By Monday morning, there was violence in some banks caused by the long queues of customers looking for money. In some parts of Nigeria, even wedding ceremonies could not hold because nobody was going to accept old notes as bride price! In rural areas, the under-banked population for whom the CBN introduced a cash swap policy decided to wait and see. No matter how well-meaning the CBN could have been, its policy was going to result in a break-down of law and order. The advertised extension till February 10 is most expedient. It came as a big relief to aggrieved Nigerians. But will they get the new notes?

The CBN Governor has been shown on tape reporting that the heads of the CBN, EFCC, ICPC, the Nigeria Financial intelligence Unit, the DSS and other security agencies have held a meeting and resolved to work together to apprehend persons who are sabotaging CBN guidelines on the naira redesign policy. Indeed yesterday, the DSS arrested some organized syndicates selling new Naira notes. I hope some bank managers were among those arrested. The security agencies should also take a close look at CBN officials because this kind of open sabotage and effrontery cannot take place without collusion at the highest levels. INEC officials are selling PVCs! Bankers are selling new Naira notes! We live in a country where whatever policy the government comes up with, there will always be persons who are determined to circumvent the policy for profit motives. This is the problem with Nigeria. The CBN extension would only be meaningful if the people can get new notes.

There is the additional matter that has been raised by the House of Representatives ad hoc committee led by Hon Al Hassan Doguwa on the matter. The lawmaker says the House is determined to issue a warrant of arrest for the CBN Governor, because the CBN has broken the law and the Governor is refusing to appear before the House. Both Doguwa and the Speaker, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamiala, insist that the CBN has violated Section 20(3) of the CBN Act, and that under Section 89(1) of the 1999 Constitution and Order 19(2) of the Standing Orders of the House, they have the right to ask that the CBN Governor be arrested by the Inspector General of Police. I sincerely believe that the House of Representatives is grandstanding. They can issue a warrant of arrest as they did a resolution, but the effect may be no more than symbolic. The police that should arrest the CBN Governor reports directly to the President of Nigeria – Sections 215 and 216 of the Constitution. The same President that has taken personal ownership of all that the CBN has done. In days to come, some persons may go to court to seek an interpretation of Section 20(3) and Section 22 of the CBN Act, and throw up more conundrums, but the problem is that our laws are often so woolly that anybody can cherry pick as convenient and avoid a community reading that is recommended as standard practice. Our laws need to be more specific and categorical. But has the CBN not anticipated and side-stepped that possible controversy by granting an additional seven days for the return of old notes to the Central Bank? I think it has.

Finally, it is worth noting that in November 2016, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a similar policy to take “black money” out of circulation in India. The government gave only a four-hour notice for the withdrawal of all 1,000 rupees and 500 rupees. It caused confusion because it came as a shock. It was shrouded in secrecy. New notes were scarce. There were queues all over India. Modi held his ground. He said he needed to fight tax evasion and corruption. The people endured the hardship. He got away with it. The only difference is that the Indians trusted their government. Nigerians have learnt to doubt their own government. This is the crux of the matter.

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Mrs Funke Egbemode, former Commissioner for Information, Osun State

Topic: : Election Petitions Tribunal Verdict In Osun Guber Elections: Matters Arising

Date: January 28, 2023
                         
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Nigerian sensational singer, Temilade Openiyi, popularly known as Tems, has made history as the first Nigerian artist to earn an Oscar nomination.
Naija News reports that the nomination list for the 2023 Oscar awards was released on Tuesday, January 23, 2023, with Tems making Nigerians proud.

Tems was nominated for her contribution as a songwriter on ‘Lift Me Up’ one of the soundtracks on Marvel’s ‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’.

Voting for the 2023 Oscars will run from March 2nd -7th as the award holds on Sunday, March 12 at the Dolby Theater and it will be hosted by comedian and talk show host Jimmy Kimmel.

See the full nomination list below.

Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler

Colin Farrell

Brendan Fraser

Paul Mescal

Bill Nye

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett

Ana de Armas

Andrea Riseborough

Michelle Williams

Michelle Yeoh

Directing

Martin McDonagh

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

Steven Spielberg

Todd Field

Ruben Ostlund

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Documentary Feature Film

All That Breathes

All The Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther

Top Gun: Maveric

Documentary Short Film

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year

Stranger at the Gate

Animated Short Film

The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Women Talking

Music (Original Song)

Applause

Hold My Hand

Lift Me Up

Naatu Naatu

This Is A Life

There seems to be a scramble, a rush, by Nigerian politicians, and political candidates for appearance at or association with Chatham House in London, the policy think tank established by the British Institute of International Affairs, which for more than a century has served as a forum for the exchange of ideas and open expression, research and knowledge. Chatham House, also known as the Royal Institute for International Affairs has hosted a broad spectrum of speakers and world leaders, from different continents of the world. As far back as April 1931, Mahatma Ghandi, the Indian nationalist was at Chatham House, which by the way is also famous for the Chatham House Rule, established in the English vocabulary as a principle of non-attribution in reporting a particular proceeding or engagement. Many Nigerians have of course appeared at Chatham House, but it is noteworthy that when Nigerian politicians do so, there is forever a tinge of self-advertisement and narcissism in their presentations, and this being the case, their opponents are quick to turn such forum into an occasion for combat and pugilism.  

We have seen this at play over the years but what is shocking now is how our politicians have turned an opportunity to speak at Chatham House into a badge of honour. One state Governor had to make so much noise about making a speech at Chatham House, you would think he had been knighted at the time by the Queen! When a sitting Government gets wind of information that an opposition member was about to speak at Chatham, it is standard practice to send “our own people there” to “state our own side of the story” This time around, as Nigeria begins the countdown to the 2023 elections, Chatham House is part of the general conversation. On December 5, 2022, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was at Chatham House, an outing that was attended by rather exciting drama as a result of his resort to what he called “team-ship” in responding to questions and comments raised by his audience. The drama overshadowed the subject of his presentation: “Nigeria’s 2023 Elections: Security, Economic and Foreign Policy Imperatives”. He was heavily criticized by commentators at home and abroad. Yesterday, it was the turn of Mr. Peter Obi, the Presidential candidate of the Labour Party addressing the subject: “Nigeria’s 2023 Election: A Vision for Policy Change and Institutional Reforms.” 

Today, January 17, Chatham House will host the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmood Yakubu focusing on “Preparations, Challenges, and Priorities for Ensuring Electoral Integrity and Inclusivity.” Tomorrow, January 18 it would be the turn of Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, Presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party with particular focus on his policy ideas for Nigeria.  The candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar has not yet shown up at Chatham House this time, although he had been there before on two different occasions – 2007 and 2018. Alex Vines, Director of the Africa Programme at the Institute has however confirmed that Atiku has been invited but he is yet to respond to the invitation.  He probably would do so before the elections too, so he and his aides are not left out of the Chatham House jamboree. When Waziri Atiku Abubakar went to the UK recently, however, it was gleefully reported that he met with some UK officials. No one should be surprised if some other key players in the 2023 electoral process also find their ways to Chatham House, or ask to be invited if only to fulfil the ritual of shaking the hands of one English member of Parliament and parade same as an achievement!   Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised one of these days, with the way things are going, if a Nigerian politician shows up at Chatham House with his entourage all garbed up in the kind of party attire that Nigerians call “aso ebi!”

As an Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House can easily justify its current focus on political developments in Nigeria: Africa’s most populous country, going through another election season that would involve a transition from one administration to the other, with implications for peace, stability and economic growth. As the Institute puts it: “Nigeria stands at a critical juncture, having suffered from two recessions in the past six years, unprecedented levels of physical and food insecurity, persistent fuel scarcity, and high levels of crude oil theft. Civic fatigue also remains an important challenge and Buhari’s three main policy pillars of security, economy and corruption continue to be defining issues for citizens.” But Chatham House’s interest in our affairs is not entirely altruistic; it is a listening post for the British establishment, and as a body that depends on donations as a major source of funding, its managers are fully aware of how vain and generous Nigerian politicians could possibly be at a time like this. This is one area in which the Chatham House Rule would definitely apply in the circumstance, so there may be no point inquiring into how much Nigerian politicians pay when they are granted the podium at 10 James’s Square. Perhaps “pay” is not the right word, so please scratch that, and substitute “donate”.  

Chatham House. Chatham House. And so what? We have a similar body here in Nigeria; the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), which is Nigeria’s top think tank on public affairs, established in 1961, and since then has proven to be a major centre for research and analysis. Were the NIIA to invite Nigerian politicians to come and speak at the platform, they are not likely to show up. They would give excuses. And that is why no major politician has gone there to engage the Nigerian intelligentsia. They would rather go to London. This says something about our relationship with the West. The average Nigerian suffers from a terrible colonial mentality. Even for elections that will be decided by the Nigerian electorate, there is so much concentration on London. Our leaders go to London for medical treatment. They go to Dubai for tourism. And they don’t go alone. Every trip is an opportunity for over-excited aides to pose for photographs, sometimes with wives and girlfriends and their children. Nigerian leaders have a strong appetite for everything foreign. That is how they killed Nigeria’s education sector. That is how they killed the health sector. Now, they want to kill our politics! In the absence of diaspora voting all the showmanship by Nigerians at Chatham House amounts to nothing.  The delivery of 1, 000 speeches at Chatham House cannot influence the Nigerian electorate in any way. Has anyone paused to ask why British politicians do not come to Nigeria to sell their campaign plans? And why other politicians around the world do not turn London into a major campaign centre? 

It is possible to argue that many Nigerians live in the UK, and they could influence their kith and kin back home even if they themselves may not have a PVC. But such Nigerians are not likely to be found at Chatham House. Any Nigerian politician seeking the people’s votes through such strategy is better off holding Town Hall meetings in parts of the UK and Ireland where there is a large concentration of Nigerians, especially those neighbourhoods where if you stay by the window and you shout “Good Morning” in Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa, you are likely to hear many voices greeting you back loud and clear in the same language especially in South London:  Elephant and Castle, Camberwell, Peckham, Croydon, Lewisham… There are also many Nigerians in Dublin. Since diaspora remittances mean a lot to Nigerians back home, it may be good sense to carry Nigerians in diaspora along, but certainly not inside Chatham House. But we may ask by way of further interrogation: does a speech at Chatham House give a Nigerian politician global recognition and acceptability? Or is it meant to show that the particular candidate has a programme that the international community can buy into? Does the platform confer legitimacy of any sort? It beggars the question whether that is what the Nigerian electorate needs.  

There is one more point: the idea of Chatham House as a tourist centre by our political leaders and their aides is most unfortunate. For more than 100 years, it has been seen as a centre for rigorous thinking, and yet Nigerian leaders go there to say mundane things and their aides make a song and dance out of that. Let us stop disgracing ourselves and keep our mundane chatter among ourselves. Nobody gets a certificate or extra votes for going to Chatham House.  It is ironic that the same politicians that do not want to attend debates at home are ever ready to be seen in foreign capitals. They can only have that global recognition that they seek when after winning the election, they then put up such performance that would recommend them for global acclaim. 

In the weeks leading to the 2023 Nigerian elections, Nigerians deserve to see their Presidential candidates engage each other in debates. Some of the candidates have opted for stage-managed town hall meetings of their own where they and their aides set all the questions and provide the answers that they consider most convenient. It is true that presidential debates are not a Constitutional requirement but they have evolved over time as a means of assessing the candidate’s level of preparedness, capacity in comparison with other candidates, and the creation of a level playing field for the electorate to make an informed choice. The kind of charade that is going on in the name of rallies and self-promoting town hall meetings is akin to a situation where a job seeker insists on setting the criteria by himself, for himself and on his own terms. In a country of over 200 million people, this amounts to an act of contempt and disrespect. We must begin to modify the campaign system. Rallies are at best carnivals, the risks involved are too high. Years back, a wise politician told me that based on his experience, he had deduced that six months to a Presidential election in Nigeria, it was always possible to predict the outcome. This time around, all the wise men are uncertain about the future, which makes this 2023 election, one of the strangest that has been held in this country since the return to democracy in 1999. 

What is certain is the resilience of the same centrifugal forces that have held the country down. Those who want to behead existing gods and hegemonies of Nigerian politics may well discover that the elections may be determined in a familiar fashion: Yoruba people will vote for a Yoruba candidate, Fulanis will vote for Fulani, Muslims will vote for Muslims, Christians will support their fellow Christians, and most ironically, women who constitute a dominant percentage (about 47.5%) of the voting population will vote for men. The swing factor may well be the youths of Nigeria, who represent 39.65% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34, out of a total of 93.4 million registered voters. But will the youths of Nigeria get their voter’s cards despite the extension of the collection of PVCs by one week till January 29? Would the youths of Nigeria be able to vote in parts of the country where violence is so rife that even the security agencies appear helpless? INEC continues to affirm that the elections will be held without hitches, “come rain, come shine.”  What is the basis of that optimism, even as INEC offices remain under assault, the most recent being the attack on INEC’s Area Office in Enugu South Local Government Area? It would be a great shame indeed and most disappointing if the agents of retrogression are allowed to hijack the 2023 elections. 

The main challenge is here at home, not on the streets of London. And to all the political gladiators: there is an urgent need to focus more on the issues, rather than engaging in mud-slinging, polluting and fouling the environment. The ongoing politics of hate would make healing and reconciliation difficult when the election is won and lost.  Nigeria cannot afford that. 

From today, we have just about 47 days to Nigeria’s general elections, a major transition that would involve a change of government, the seventh since the return to civilian rule in 1999, but the biggest fear is that the current electoral process faces threats from different directions more than any other before it. I intend to identify some of these and reflect on them, as we all begin to count down to this year’s major elections. Yesterday in Ojota, Lagos, it was reported that there was a shoot out between members of the Oodua Progressives Congress (OPC), and the Oodua self-determination activists and Nigeria’s security agencies. Persons were killed, other were injured. By 9 am, concerned citizens had declared the Ojota area of Lagos a no-go area except you would willingly take a stray bullet in your head and die just like that.  In Anambra State, unidentified gun men burnt down a police station in Umuchu community in Aguata Local Government Area. 

The same station was destroyed by #EndSARS protesters in 2020 during a mass protest. The Umuchu Improvement Union decided to rebuild it, only for it to be set ablaze again.   In parts of the East and elsewhere, both police stations and the offices of the electoral umpire have been special targets of evil-minded arsonists and unknown gunmen, ahead of the elections. As of December 2022, we were told that over 50 INEC offices had been attacked in four years, across 15 states. Of these, 11 incidents in Imo state alone, seven in Osun, five in Akwa Ibom, five in Enugu and Ebonyi, four in Abia and Cross River, two in Anambra, Taraba, Borno, and one in Ogun, Lagos, Bayelsa, Ondo and Kaduna. The frequency of these attacks has since increased as the elections draw nearer, causing understandable panic and concern among right-thinking members of the Nigerian community. The truth is that INEC facilities and security stations have become targets of arson and vandalism. 

The attacks point to a trend: the determination to destroy INEC infrastructure, incapacitate the institution, and derail the 2023 electoral process. The details are as follows:  yet uncollected Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) have been stolen, generating sets and computers are destroyed and the assailants across the country disappear into thin air. There is no record of arrests having been made. When INEC offices are not attacked, there are other attacks that point to what is beginning to look like a deliberate attempt by some hoodlums to make sure the 2023 elections do not take place. On March 28, 2022 for example, a Kaduna bound train from Abuja was attacked and bombed and passengers were injured and abducted. More than 100 of the abducted passengers did not all regain their freedom until September 2022. The families who lost their loved ones, or paid ransoms, and those whose relatives were injured, humiliated and flogged, would never forget their pain and loss. Their only crime, at the risk of sounding repetitive is that they are Nigerians living in a country of strange occurrences where life has become  “nasty, short and brutish”.  

On Saturday, just a few days ago, the railway station at Igueben in Edo State was attacked. This time, it was the station, not the train. Over 30 persons were abducted including the manager of the train station. This is all made more worrisome because before the re-opening of the Abuja-Kaduna rail line on December 15, 2022, the Minister of Transportation had boasted that special measures had been taken to ensure the safety of passengers and the entire Nigerian railway value chain. The Minister has since visited Igueben and he simply repeated the same tosh without even thinking about how additional security measures would eb taken.  What we see is that government officials do not learn from what happens to the people. They repeat the same embarrassing script in an odious advertisement of their lack of capacity. So much money and commitments have been invested by Nigeria in the country’s rail network, but the management is atrocious because it is in the hands of incompetents who on top of it all, have not learnt the lesson of keeping quiet when you have nothing intelligent or reasonable to say. In some other countries, where merit is more important than connections, the Minister of Transportation and the Managing Director of the Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) would be out of job by now.  

But the bigger picture, the big elephant in the room, is that this is election season and it seems that some fifth columnists are determined to truncate the process, derail it, make it impossible, as it were for Nigerians to have credible elections. This may sound hypothetical, but from the evidence of current trends, it is possible to do a threat assessment and conclude accordingly. We face a very high level of security threat as we get closer to the 2023 elections, and it is one reason why the security agencies must arouse from their slumber and stop playing possum when the house is threatened by arsonists.  President Muhammadu Buhari had given, before now, the security agencies a deadline of December 2022 to make sure that they “got on top of the security situation” in the country. The various service chiefs pledged that they would do their job. The joke is now on them. Where are they? Are they hiding in some secret cupboards somewhere? There is widespread insecurity in the land. The people have played their part by seeking to register and collect their Permanent Voter’s Cards: 93. 5 million registered voters and over 48 million young people who want to use the 2023 opportunity to have a say in how they are governed. Who is afraid of the people’s voice and power? Buhari wants to leave a strong legacy. The starting point, and the obvious redemptive choice is to leave behind a free and fair election that produces the best options for Nigeria. This week, the President would begin to show up as we have been told at rallies of his party in 10 states (why 10?),,for  the APC’s Presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The last time President Buhari was sighted at any APC rally was during the flag off of the campaign in Jos, Plateau State. But now, he wants to come out to throw his weight and influence behind his party’s Presidential candidate. In doing so, at this crunch time, he must be reminded that he had told us again and again that he is for everybody and for nobody and all he wants is for Nigerians to vote according to their conscience. He has an obligation to toe that chosen  path even as he relishes photo opportunities at campaign rallies by his own party, otherwise he would be accused of hypocrisy. His party members expect him to deliver single-handedly, over 12 million votes from the North. But the times have changed. Out of the total of 93. 5 registered voters, over 48 million of them are young men and women, and they are majorly in the South, espousing a combination of #EndSARS, #IPOB and #TakeOurCountry Back ideals. There is a new generation in the electoral space that does not know the older generation. This is bound to be an election like no other. It would be a contest between the old and new order, the rich and the poor, the establishment and the people. Whoever wins, Nigeria stands the strong chance of new realignments and awakening.  The best bet for President Buhari as he goes into final retirement from public service and partisan politics is to protect his legacy for Nigerians, and take ownership of his own narrative. He is not getting the help that he badly needs!

Th 2023 election process is further threatened by the inability of the people, especially young men and women who dominate the electoral register to get their PVCs. In Lagos state or elsewhere, the story has been that either the INEC officials do not show up, or they arrive late and close early, provoking the anger of majorly young voters who believe that there is an attempt to disenfranchise them. INEC spokespersons continue to argue that they are prepared and ready, but what explains the inefficiency in INEC collection centres from Local Government Areas to the wards, and the fact that INEC ad-hoc staff are mostly unavailable at their duty desks. There has been a clamour for the extension of the INEC time-table for the collection of PVCs beyond January 22, 2023. INEC must also audit its own processes beyond merely making promises it cannot keep. The people have been told that the only way they can vote and for their votes to count is for them to have a voter’s card. One man, one vote. INEC must in addition to everything else explain why its Voter’s Cards are showing up in refuse dumps and drainage channels. How did they get there?  The PVCs must be in the hands of Nigerian voters who expect to use them to exercise their due rights under the law.  This is not something that INEC must sweep under the carpet. The   organization has announced that beginning from today, it would embark on the enlightenment of the electorate across the country. It is not just the voters that need enlightenment, the process must begin with INEC officials and ad hoc staff. 

The politicians also must be called to order. The beauty of the Electoral Act 2022 is that it spells out in no uncertain terms, the penalty for misconduct. Sections 91, 92 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, guide conduct during elections accordingly, with penalties properly spelt out in Sections 92 (7), (8), 93(2), 94(2), 95 (6), 96(3) and 97 (1) but nonetheless, the level of impunity has been horrendous. Candidates go to campaign rallies and the major thing they do is to abuse their own opponents with a barrage of hate speech, toxic language and argumentum ad hominem. In some states where certain parties are in charge politically, they do not allow the opposition to campaign or erect campaign materials. There has been in fact a rank disregard for Section 97 of the Electoral Act which forbids any form of campaign on “religious, tribal or sectional reason for the purpose of promoting or opposing a particular political party or the election of a particular candidate…”  Meanwhile, it has been reported that a special prayer session was organized by Muslim clerics in Kano recently in support of the APC Presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. At the event, one Abdulmutalab Mohammed Auwal, a Sheik, advised Muslims to vote only for a Muslim-Muslim ticket as a call to Jihad. He argued the Bola Tinubu/Shettima Muslim/Muslim ticket is an indication of the supremacy of Islam. The meeting was attended by about 75 Muslim groups from the North and other parts of Nigeria. Other speakers at the event promoted the politics of religion. The last time we checked, the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria at Section 10 thereof says: “The Government of the Federation or of a state shall not adopt any religion as State Religion”. It is the same provision that is reflected in Section 97 of the Electoral Act 2022 on the prohibition of “campaign based on religion or tribe”. But here in Nigeria both the people and the government break the laws routinely because impunity reigns. How on earth can a total of 75 groups gather at a forum and preach hatred based on religion and they are allowed to get away with it?

So in essence, the security agencies are not doing their work! They have an obligation to protect the state against all levels of threat, and they must do so, proactively, and consistently, not when it is convenient for them to do so. A general election such as this country is about to hold in the next two months is not just about the ballot paper, and the people’s ability to choose, it is also a national security operation. It is the integrity of the Nigerian state that is at stake. The electoral framework is clear on that. The people’s right to vote and choose, freely and without inducement or any form of harassment or molestation, must be protected and defended. Election managers often talk about a certain concentric circle of security operations on election day, but clearly, the security dimension of any major national security event is not a day-event, it is a process: before, during and after. Not enough has been done before the elections as indicated by the multiple security breaches around the country. The challenges ahead are clear and obvious. The politicians are behaving as if the election this year is a kind of war. The last thing this country wants is any form of war.  Nigerians want peace. The 2023 Budget as defined has a deficit of N77 trillion. Unemployment rate is over 33%. There is a debt overhang of over N22 trillion. Revenue projection is about N10 trillion. There is the possibility that fuel subsidy and other subsidies will be removed but there is no guarantee that the gains accruing therefrom will be properly managed. Tighten your seat belts. This is bound to be a tough year for us, as Nigerians. The politicians will win or lose, but they don’t seem to care enough about us. This is our sad reality.

This certainly promises to be an interesting year for Africa where a total of 24 general, legislative and local elections would take place in the course of the year in Republics of Benin, Comoros, Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Somaliland, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo and Zimbabwe. For a continent that has had issues of military truncation of democratic processes or threats thereof in recent times – Libya, Egypt, Congo, Burundi, Central African Republic, Ethiopian, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Chad - any indication of the sustenance of democracy in any part of the continent would be simply good news. But the one that concerns us most is the fact that Nigeria in 2023 is scheduled to have general elections, the sixth since the return to civilian rule in 1999, with the possibility, if that be the case, of the outcome of a transition at political party level at the centre. 

This would perhaps turn out to be the most important event in Nigeria’s political calendar in 2023. The question as framed in not so many words is: who will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari? If the race had been somewhat measured, it can be safely imagined that as we enter the New Year, it would possibly take no more than two weeks from this moment, before the entire Nigerian landscape lights up in frenetic election frenzy as the various parties and candidates begin the final dash towards the Presidential election on February 25, 2022, and the Gubernatorial and Legislative Elections scheduled for March 11. For now, there seems to be an informal consensus that out of the 18 political parties in the race, only four political parties and four candidates can be taken seriously: the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Waziri Atiku Abubakar, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Labour Party and Mr. Peter Obi and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Dr. Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso. In a recent, robust, thumb-of-the-rule, analysis of projections, ThisDay Newspaper, reduced the race to a straight, all-out fight between the APC and the PDP and the possibility of a run-off. This may however change, given the volatility of political permutations. 

But what lies ahead has already been signposted by a series of events.  Just as the year was about to end, Prince Arthur Eze, the Igbo billionaire and entrepreneur and the Godfather of some people, announced at an Ofala festival, that he had told Peter Obi of the Labour Party not to run for the Presidency because he is not the chosen one. He said he told Peter Obi not to waste his money and when it is the turn of Igbos, it would not even be him, but Professor Charles Soludo, the incumbent Governor of Anambra State to whom whoever wins the Nigerian Presidency in 2023 would hand over. Prince Eze’s intervention generated not a little ruckus, more so as he had arrogated to himself the power and privilege to determine the political future of Igboland and the political fortunes of Peter Obi.   This was made a tad more interesting by the fact that Professor Charles Soludo whom he announced as the Igbo choice for the Presidency of Nigeria had in fact written in November 2022, in a piece titled “History Beckons and I will Not Be Silent (1)” that Peter Obi’s presidential ambition is a wild goose chase that will amount to nothing, and that his claim of extra-ordinary performance as Anambra Governor is at best a scam. Soludo has not published the Part II of his 2023 political homily. But while he and Prince Eze have the right to their own choices, it cannot be confirmed that they speak for all Igbos or the Nigerian elite, even if there has been very loud silence among the Igbo elite about Peter Obi’s candidacy. His constituency is the ordinary Nigerian who wants to take his or her country back, who believes that the best way to move Nigeria forward is to disrupt it, do something different, think out of the box. Either by default or design, Peter Obi, more than Omoyele Sowore, candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC) who in fact generated that lexicon in 2019, has taken ownership of it and given it velocity and currency. But to what end? There is considerable disagreement over what the Peter Obi phenomenon means. 

What has lent it further oxygen, however, is the New Year endorsement by President Olusegun Obasanjo who says Peter Obi in his own estimation has an “edge” over other candidates in Nigeria’s Presidential race. Having been an issue in Nigerian politics for more than five decades, Obasanjo has learnt the artful game of owning the moment and that is precisely what he has done this time around. Weeks to the election, on the first day of the new year, he announced his preference, and he drew attention to himself, and made himself an issue. There are persons who have expressed the view that President Obasanjo should be quiet. I disagree. He has every right under the law to offer an opinion, just like Governor Charles Soludo, Prince Arthur Eze, and the rest of us. Nobody should be crucified for speaking their mind, since we all know in any case that nobody, be it a former President or a serving janitor has more than one vote. The only difference is that some people imagine that with their celebrity endorsements or condemnations, they can influence the votes. This is why the most important person in the forthcoming general elections is the voter. The Nigerian voter must stand up, be resolute and make an informed choice. There is no individual in this country that has powers under the law to dictate how others should vote. The operative rule is one man, one vote. Whether or not the elite prefer a particular candidate, what matters is what that average voter wants, and chooses. It is hence important that the Nigerian people vote according to their conscience. This is the area where the civil society has a responsibility to act in the people’s interest by conscientizing them that the best way forward for Nigeria is to vote for those who will make Nigeria a better place. Nobody must be allowed to play God in 2023. There are no messiahs in this country anymore. We only have the people and the people have a duty to save themselves.

Why? Because the leading political parties are in disarray, and do not seem to care about the electoral framework. The Electoral Act 2022 has been touted as a major step forward in Nigeria’s process of democratic consolidation but there is no concrete evidence that the political parties, their candidates and supporters have taken time out to study and internalize its provisions.   There is too much bad conduct on the political scene. The political parties signed a peace accord brokered under the leadership of General Abdulsalami Abubakar, the Sultan of Sokoto, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah and others but the campaign process has been far from peaceful. It has been abusive, toxic, abrasive and uncivil. The major political parties are all guilty, and the surrogates, the hired Vuvuzelas, half of whom are hungry and angry have been unhelpful to the country, the process and the candidates who give them just barely enough to keep their stomachs alive.  Under such circumstances, the people of Nigeria have a responsibility to save their country from all those elements, the termites, the fortune-seekers who have crawled out of the woods to hold the country hostage. 

We have been told by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that the only way to do this is for the people to get their voting cards. Unfortunately, the on-going PVC collection exercise is a nightmare. In the South West, there have been allegations that non-Yoruba persons are not allowed to collect PVCs. In the East, there are allegations that militant groups are chasing people away from PVC collection centres. In the North, it is alleged that under-aged children are being given PVCs. Across the country, it is said that some unscrupulous elements are buying up PVCs and Voter Identification Numbers (VIN), apparently to reduce the number of voters on election day, and induce poor voter turn-out to serve a purpose in specific constituencies. INEC through its spokespersons has been very eloquent in dismissing all of these allegations and in boasting that it is prepared, so prepared it has even printed extra ballot papers should the country be faced with the possibility of a Presidential run-off and the activation of reverse logistics.  This is not the time for empty boasts. INEC must address the challenges it faces. It must investigate the allegations that have been raised and take appropriate action. Less than eight weeks to the election, it has been said that people cannot get their PVCs! The collection process has been chaotic from Lagos to Anambra. It is not juju. It is organizational dysfunction! Indeed, in Lagos, many non-Yorubas complain that in the few local government areas where PVCs are given out, anybody bearing a non-Yoruba name is discriminated against and denied a PVC. Now, that is unacceptable.   INEC must look into that and ensure that there is smooth, non-discriminatory collection of PVCs across the country, especially now that the adoption of BVAS – the Biometric Verification Accreditation System- has eliminated the recourse to incident forms. Everything in the coming 2023 elections depends on INEC and the integrity of its systems, and further, the commitment of President Muhammadu Buhari to his promise to ensure a peaceful and credible transition.  INEC needs more ad-hoc staff. It needs hands on the ground. How it manages this make-or-mar election should mean a lot to its staff. INEC must stop making promises and get to work.

The promises should be left to the politicians. As things stand, the two major political parties are in a battle to the finish. The APC is so arrogant, and confident in a most insufferable manner that it is again the turn of the party. APC is the ruling party, and so there is probably something to be said for the power of incumbency. The only caveat there is that the sitting President has cultivated a seeming air of neutrality in the matter.  He is leader of the party and Chairman of the APC Presidential Campaign Council but except I am missing something, and I stand to be corrected, the President has told everyone whoever has ears to hear that he is committed to leaving behind a legacy of free and fair elections and he wants Nigerians to vote and choose freely according to their conscience. In other words, he, President Buhari belongs to everybody and nobody in particular, even if he has also been quoted as saying that he wants his party, the APC to win. He has in that regard shown up in one or two campaigns. His wife too. But is that how a sitting President campaigns for a successor that he wants? Politicians don’t tell people to vote according to their choice. They go out there to drive their own choice down the people’s throats. In 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo was more active on the stumps than his chosen successor, Umaru Yar’Adua. He was the one going around selling the sick Yar’Adua to Nigerians, and he had his way willy-nilly, even if years after the fact, he is now the same man saying a Presidential candidate needs the gift of mental and physical agility. Do you see how Nigeria has suffered in the hands of its leaders? In comparison to Obasanjo, President Buhari has been rather reticent. He wants Nigerians to decide for themselves. While that comes across as good statesmanship, it reduces the force of the Tinubu campaign. Why would a sitting APC President not energize his proverbial 12 million voters in support of his own party by going out there to rally the base?

The rival, the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has issues of its own too. The party is divided as it were into three factions. Yes, three. There is the Atiku faction: the traditional PDP group, the die-hards who are eager to return to power and displace the ruling APC. They are not saying it is their turn, but they are convinced that power belongs to them, they only just missed it in 2015 and 2019, and they want it back desperately. But there is this other faction: the Nyesom Wike faction. Wike, the inconsolable, cry-baby of the PDP Presidential primaries who missed the presidential ticket, and also lost out in the running mate race who has now ganged up with other Governors of the party to form a G-5 and other members to form a rebellious Integrity Group – he says in the name of justice, equity and fairness, Senator Iyorchia Ayu must go as Chairman of the party – an irreducible minimum. The party has since passed a vote of confidence on Ayu, and in the last few days, the PDP has made it clear that both the G-5 and the Integrity Group can do their worst, because they do not matter.  The way I see it, I think Wike and co. have overplayed their hands. Apart from Wike who is not seeking any elective post, all the other principal partners are in a Catch-22 situation. Seyi Makinde in Oyo state wants a second term. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Samuel Ortom, and Okezie Ikpeazu want to go to the Senate. Governor Ugwuanyi is old and experienced enough to know that Enugu is a traditional PDP state. He can follow others to Port Harcourt and London to drink pepper soup but in his private moments, he knows that he should not jeopardize his own political interest.  Okezie Ikpeazu, the Malabitic Ph.D Governor of Abia state is presumably too intelligent to go and follow Wike and others to drink poisonous soda. Ortom has been very diplomatic all along, dancing this way and that way, knowing that there are more than enough formidable PDP forces in Benue who can bury his political career. Right now, most of the aggrieved members of the PDP political family are orphans in search of shelter. They also need to be reminded of what happened to the Alliance for Democracy Governors in the 2003 elections in the South West due to mixed messaging. Tinubu was the last man standing in that debacle. They should learn from him.

This may well be a general election of surprises in Nigeria. The story has just begun.     

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Prince Adewole Adebayo (SDP Presidential Candidate)

Topic: 2023 General Elections and other matters

Date: December 31, 2022

Join Zoom Meeting
https://zoom.us/j/92877141732?pwd=VEJWb29OL2VVekZUTHRpdWYxK0xxZz09

Meeting ID: 928 7714 1732
Passcode: 600206

By this time next week, the year 2022 would have ended, and across the world people will speak of a new year with fresh expectations but when we look back on the year that is about to pass, in terms of achievements, high points, successes, failures and experiences, it would be recalled that the year 2022 was indeed more than ordinary. It was the second anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic which up-ended our lives, exposing us all to an international public health crisis, countless deaths, compulsory stay at homes, a redefinition of the world of work, and the depths of human resilience.  The year began on a cautious note, as many countries while opening up their borders still insisted on proof of vaccination against COVID. The importance attached to this was most vividly demonstrated when Novak Djokovic, the tennis maestro was denied participation at the January 2022 Australian Open because of his blunt refusal to take the vaccine. He was slammed with a three-year ban from the Australian Open. 

As the year progressed, the world opened up further, and whereas in 2022, China still reported cases of COVID in its major cities, and insisted on the zero COVID policy, by year-end, that zero-COVID policy had been significantly revised. It is a much more open world today than it was two years ago. Many international meetings including The African Development Bank (AfDB) conference in Mauritius, in May 2022, Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda, June 2022, the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, in October 2022, Conference of Parties (COP 27) in Sharm El Sheik in Egypt in November 2022 as well as other international events were held in-person or through a hybrid of physical attendance and virtual participation. Airlines took to the skies again in large numbers, the world of tourism bounced back. In October 2022, Hong Kong promised to give away 500, 000 free flight tickets to attract tourists back to the city. In November 2022, one million foreign tourists visited Japan, one month after it fully re-opened. Hitherto, Hong Kong, the Chinese Special Administrative Region and Japan had some of the strictest COVID rules, forcing airlines- Virgin Atlantic, British Airways and American Airlines to suspend flights to the city-state.  Wedding parties and events that were suspended in the full swing of COVID are now being held. In 2022, our world began to re-connect. Djokovic has now had his three-year ban from the Australian Open lifted, and hence, in January 2023, the nine-time Australian Open Champion has serious guarantee, without fear of ambiguity, that he will be welcomed back to Melbourne. 

The world’s gradual recovery was however abbreviated, very early in the year, when Russia and its President Vladimir Putin declared a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.  It was not enough for Putin that he had annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and supported the seizure of territory by separatists in the Donbas region, the 2022 invasion was a direct assault on Ukraine’s right to exist. More than 300 days since the war began, over 14 million people have fled Ukraine as refugees, the largest refugee crisis since World War II, more than 300,000 Russians have also fled their country, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged, a fifth of Ukraine’s territory is in Russian hands, thousands of people have died.  The international community has imposed sanctions on Russia including putting a price cap on Russian oil, the mass exodus of Western companies from Russia including Volkswagen, Toyota, Pepsi, Daimler, LG, Adidas, Burger King, Sony, Siemens Visa, MasterCard Xerox, and many others that have either suspended operations in Russia or have left completely. Russia has also been kicked out of SWIFT, the international payment system, thus disconnecting its financial institutions from the global network. A US-backed global task force has frozen more than $330 billion of assets from Russian oligarchs and the country’s Central Bank. Members of the task force include Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and The European Commission. Affected Russian oligarchs include Suleiman Kerimov whose yacht was seized. Roman Abramovich, the former Russian owner of English football club, Chelsea FC was forced to sell it off without any direct profit. No other event has connected the world together more than the Russo-Ukrainian war. 

But it is also a war of attrition that has inflicted much pain on the world.  Russia supplies about 40% of the gas used in Europe. Russia decided to weaponize energy supply by shutting down the Nord stream 1, the biggest gas pipeline from Russia to Europe which has the capacity to deliver 55 billion cubic metres of gas a year, thus creating an energy crisis across Europe. Before then, Gazprom, the Russian energy giant had insisted on payment for supplies in rouble -the Russian currency - until Russia eventually shut down supplies, compelling European countries to seek alternative sources of supply and adopt the rationing of power.  The cost of energy of course went up, throwing many households into panic. Power cuts is something developing countries in Africa are familiar with, but it is becoming a pattern in Europe due to the war in Ukraine.  

The spot price of oil also spiked soon after the Russian invasion of. Ukraine, up to about $92.81, resulting in higher revenues for oil producing companies which made huge profits, and also, the oil exporting countries. Sadly Nigeria, a member of OPEC could not take advantage of this, it could not even meet its OPEC production quota due to crude oil theft, collapse of infrastructure and general decay in the country’s oil and gas ecosystem.  Russia in comparison profited from the war it started:  within 100 days, it had earned about 93 billion Euros from exports of oil, gas and coal. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has continuously asked the world to stop trade completely with Russia. China, India and United Arab Emirates continue to buy from Russia. The bigger blow was the disruption of the global supply chain. 

Between them, Russia and Ukraine control about a third of the world’s supply of wheat, 19% of the world’s supply of corn and 80% of the world’s trade in sunflower. Russia is also the third largest supplier of nickel, copper and platinum. In the course of the war this year, Russia blocked ships from carrying grain exports across the Black Sea. Over 300 ships were stopped from moving, and the effect was seen in terms of food supply crisis and food price inflation. The impact was felt all over the world, even more so in Africa where most of the countries including Nigeria and Ghana and 23 others that depend on wheat imports from Russia, lack spare capacity - the cost of basic items like bread skyrocketed. The IMF warned about a looming food crisis. The pandemic had made things bad enough, the Russo-Ukraine war worsened the people’s plight. In Europe, people complained about the cost of food, petrol, gas and the high cost of living. 

Inflation was the big dilemma that many countries had to deal with resulting in hawkish i=tightening of rates in many countries with perhaps the notable exceptions of Japan with its insistence on negative interest rates, and Turkey’s unorthodox approach of cutting interest rates even with the country’s soaring inflation at 80%. In contrast, most countries followed the lead of the US Central bank. In the year 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times, pushing borrowing costs to a 15-year high in order to stabilize and stimulate the economy, and yet US inflation is at a 40-year high. In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates eight consecutive times in the face of rising unemployment, high energy prices, fiscal crisis, high mortgage rates and CPI inflation at 11%. Many people around the world found the cost of living so high that they simply took to the streets. In Ghana street protests have been witnessed, in the UK at the moment, nurses, border officials, paramedics, rail unions and paramedics have decided to stage walk-outs. In Sri Lanka where inflation is around 70%, the hardship can be best measured in the depth of the people’s suffering.  Leaders are quick to blame the situation on the war in Ukraine but part of the problem is self-inflicted, especially in a country like Nigeria where inflation is at 21.47% (probably higher than that), fuel scarcity has added to the people’s woes, the cost of travel is not just expensive, the cost of living is high. It is Christmas season but many Nigerians don’t know it is Christmas. 

In 2022, Queen Elizabeth II died after 70 years and 214 days on the throne, the longest reigning British monarch ever (February 1952 – September 2022). She was one of the most influential figures of the 20^th and 21^st centuries. The majesty, pomp and pageantry of her burial, and the outpouring of love for her by the British and across the world was an indication of the force of her impact and the dignity and decency in public life which she represented throughout her reign. Her departure was one of the most striking highlights of the year 2022, and the fact that this became an occasion for the reinvention of attitudes and perspectives about the legacy of the Empire which she inherited and which her throne symbolized was not entirely surprising. The baton has since passed in line with tradition to her son, the then Prince Charles II, Prince of Wales, who is now King Charles III. 

This was also the year when Argentina won the World Cup a third time, after 36 years, and the star of the team’s sterling performance at the Doha FIFA World Cup 2022 was Lionel Messi. Marvellous Messi in the course of an 18-year glittering career had won 7 Ballon d’Or, 10 La Liga titles, 7 Copa del Rey, 4 UEFA Champions Leagues, 14 Argentina’s Footballer of the Year awards, 6 European Golden Shoe, 2 FIFA World Cup Golden Ball, and in Qatar, he won the trophy that had seemingly eluded him: the World Cup to put a seal to his all-round accomplishment as one of the greatest footballers in history. His story was a positive confirmation of his legend and personal triumph. This was indeed one World Cup in which history was made on all fronts, with Morocco finishing in the Fourth place, the first African country to go as far as the semi-final in the history of the World Cup. Nigeria did not qualify. We were spectators. The only saving grace was the appearance of Davido, the musician as part of the troika that sang the tournament’s theme song, “Haya Haya.” Many Nigerians would have loved to see the Super Eagles in action representing Nigeria and Africa. The country’s national team has since been downgraded from 32 to 35 in the latest FIFA rankings list, a reflection of the team’s indolence. The last match they played in 2022: they lost 0 -4 to Portugal.  

At the beginning of the year, there was so much excitement about cryptocurrency, with the price of the leading tokens – Bitcoin and Ethereum hovering around $69, 000, but as the year ends, many cryptocurrencies have either collapsed or declared bankruptcy. Once touted as the future of money, the year 2022 turned out to be a really bad year for crypto with skeptics pointing to the fact that they had raised concerns about its volatility. Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador and the Central African Republic, but it has lost three-quarters of its value, that is more than 50% and there have been calls in many countries for strict regulation of the crypto market. This has been made more urgent with the scam perpetrated by Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of FTX, once hailed the younger version of Warren Buffet but has now been unmasked as “the king of fraud.”  The epic collapse of FTX sent shock waves through the crypto sector, and affected exchanges like BlockFi and others which have similarly filed for bankruptcy. 

It was in general a year of agony: floods in Pakistan, US and Nigeria, protests in Iran following the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini on September 16, following her arrest by Iran’s morality police for not wearing her hijab correctly. This ignited demonstrations in solidarity from Tehran to Stockholm, Washington DC, to Athens. 

Nigeria had its own share of bad stories. On March 28 2022, Nigerians were shocked when an Abuja-Kaduna train was attacked by bandits in Katari, Kaduna State. Eight persons were killed, several were injured, 62 passengers were kidnapped. The kidnapped persons including the elderly, women, the sick, and infants were subjected to untold hardship by the bandits. The victims were eventually released in batches, the last batch on Thursday, September 6. In May 2022, David Imoh, a sound engineer who had gone to work at a social hub in Lekki was set ablaze by a group of commercial motorcyclists He had tried to intervene in a disagreement between a friend of his and an Okada rider over a sum of N100. He ended up being set ablaze. Also in May, Deborah Samuel Yakubu, a Christian student at the Shehu Shagari College of Education, Sokoto, was killed in a gruesome manner by her fellow students who accused her of insulting their religion. 

In June, St. Francis Catholic Church, Owo was attacked while a Sunday service was going on. The attack led to the death of 40 people while 80 other persons sustained injuries. There have been many other cases of mindless killings and violence across the country – in the East, Southern Kaduna and elsewhere, accentuating the challenge of insecurity in Nigeria and the increasing contempt with which human lives are treated. In the various cases that were reported during the year, the most recent as the year ends being the murder of Mrs. Bolanle Raheem by a trigger-happy policeman in Lagos, on Christmas Day, Nigerians are used to expressing shock but the perpetrators of evil are never brought to book.  All the persons who died or were abducted have one thing in common: “Nigeria happened to them”, which is so sad. 

Many Nigerians will remember 2022 as the year of scarcity: the scarcity of money, petrol, aviation fuel, civility, and unity. In the course of the year, university teachers were on strike from February to October!  The CBN redesigned the high currency denominations of N200, N500, and N1, 000. Even the new notes are scarce.