The #EndSARS protests which lasted for about two weeks until the crisis in Lagos on October 20, 2020, now known as the Black Tuesday in Nigeria’s contemporary history, may have abated, with the disappearance from Nigerian streets of the horde of protesters, looters, hijackers, and miscreants who together lent a new dimension to the protests. But essentially what we are now witnessing is best described as the “silence of the graveyard.”  It is at best “a temporary reprieve”. The embers of the youth revolution that resulted in death, arson, wanton destruction and expansive alienation, are still smouldering.  The extent to which this is true can be seen in (1) the renewed attempt in the Federal Capital Territory to loot a freshly discovered COVID-19 palliatives warehouse (2) the threat by some civil society groups that if the Federal Government does not address the demands of Nigerian youths about police brutality and good governance, nobody should rule out the possibility of another round of protests, and (3) the reported state of anomie in Oyigbo Local Government Area in Rivers State, where the people and the military are locked in a potentially explosive situation following the killing of six soldiers within the community by persons said to be militants of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra Movement (IPOB) and the imposition of a 24-hour curfew on the community by the Rivers State Government.  

A “revolution” is like the spoken word – a word is like a seed, it germinates and in actuality, its embodied meanings could take on a utilitarian and practical edge. Kinjekitile in Ebrahim Hussein’s play of the same title, on the 1905-7 Maji Maji War against German colonial rule in Tangayika (modern day Tanzania), makes the point about the potency of the word: a word once spoken may be difficult to recall or control. Kinjekitile, the seer, energized the people with a word of hope about their own invincibility but even if he did not command the next line of action, the people were driven by their own emotions and enthusiasm. The #EndSARS protest was a spoken word which assumed a life of its own. The protesters in Kinjekitile thought water as directed by the spirit, Hongo, will protect them against German bullets. The protesters at Lekki Toll Gate and other parts of Nigeria believed that the Nigerian flag and the singing of the national anthem would offer them immunity from the same state brutality that they were revolting against. Many ended up as casualties. The state and the innocent have also suffered. The culture of hate that has been promoted thereby, the Nigerian fault lines that have now been further widened, and the gulf of alienation between the people and their leaders that has been further stretched - point to one fact: the need to save Nigeria from an avoidable blow-out between the people and the state that could prove costly. This will require a sober and detached reflection over the meaning and implications of the #EndSARS protests in terms of lessons, gains, loopholes and possible options. 

One major lesson is about people power. Both #EndSARS protests in the South and the #Endinsecuritynow protests in the North were about the power of the people to insist on their own truths, hold their leaders accountable and ask questions. We often talk about the coercive powers of state, and how the control of such powers places Nigerian leaders in a superior position over and above the people. In the face of the people’s anger, the vulnerability of those powers was exposed and the true location of power in a state, nation and country was revealed. Power rests with the people. The youths of Nigeria coalesced around a word:  #EndSARS - that word soon became a signifying coda, adopted and translated into different strands by even those who did not understand what it represented other than an opportunity for rebellion against perceived enemies - from the police, to political leaders, to the rich and affluent, business owners and the ordinary man or woman riding a flashy car.

What began as a protest by young men and women in the privileged quarters of Lekki, Ikoyi, Ajah, Banana Island, Victoria Island, later joined by celebrities and social media influencers taking photographs, making speeches and eventually, playing music, eating Shawarma, Pizza, delicious rice and puff puff, soon degenerated into chaos. Even before Black Tuesday, the protests had spread across the streets of Lagos, from Lekki toll gate to Agege, Iyana Oworo, Ikorodu, Iyana Ipaja, Oshodi, Fagba, Mushin, Alakuko…The youths in these parts and their cousins in Benin City, Osogbo, Federal Capital Territory, Onitsha, Oyigbo brought a new dimension to the protests. In Benin they attacked two prisons. In Ilesa, they went after the Soun of Ogbomoso’s palace. In Abuja, Lagos and elsewhere, they pulled down traffic lights and public infrastructure. These other protesters have been dismissed as miscreants and hoodlums, but no one has been able to deny that they are Nigerian youths. The sad news is that they are in the majority.  With #EndSARS, Nigeria began to pay the price for its failure to provide for the future of its youths, to train its young persons and to empower them beyond slogans and rhetoric. The big lesson lies in the solidarity that we saw between the educated puff-puff and pizza eating crowd at Lekki Toll gate that spoke fine English and sang the National Anthem and carried placards and the stick-wielding, “we-die-here” youths that went after public infrastructure and anything that looked rich. They were both united by one word #EndSARS which had become a catch phrase for youth frustration.  

Nigeria is a divided country across all lines: ethnic, demographic, religious, and geographic with tension and entropy sewn into the national fabric. Nigerian youths constitute more than 60% of the country’s population but they are the most neglected, and of course the most divided: North and South, rich and poor. The children of the rich live in privileged places. They go to the best schools abroad. They acquire vertical education, and the kind of exposure that money can offer. But when they return to the country, they don’t get jobs. They have no hope of self-actualization because the country itself is bleeding. And so they are angry and disillusioned. On the other side are the children of the poor: the products of Nigeria’s warped system. This other group has not enjoyed the opportunity to go to school. A few may have had the opportunity, but these are mostly school drop outs whose little education is of no use. The only toy that they have ever played with in their lives is a wrap of marijuana, a shot of cocaine, tramadol, a gun and a bullet. They speak the language of the streets. We saw them at work during the #EndSARS protests. In the South, they took over the protests. In the North, they became hired agents of their oppressors and attacked the protesters. Lesson: a country that fails to invest in the future of its youths is bound to count the cost in the shape of anarchy. Nigerian youths – whatever label we give them – protesters or miscreants have spoken up. They have shown that they have a voice that must be heard. When some funny lawmakers in the Lagos State House of Assembly – Mudasiru Obasa, Mojisola Alli-Macaulay and Desmond Elliot tried to reconstruct the nature of the #EndSARS protests, the same youths dragged them like dirt on environmental sanitation day! Those lawmakers must have now learnt that it is better to think before uttering a word!

Our youths need jobs. They need to be taken seriously. The challenge of poverty and hunger also needs to be addressed if Nigeria must have peace. Political leaders and government officials must also learn to be accountable. As it happened, the protests moved beyond a revolt against police brutality, to an attack on warehouses where COVID-19 palliatives had been hoarded, organized attacks on the homes and properties of politicians, even innocent entrepreneurs. It was shocking to be confronted with the ugly truth that Nigerian politicians had converted COVID-19 palliatives for personal use to be distributed as birthday souvenirs. One of such persons even had the effrontery to confess that he was saving the materials for his birthday anniversary. He wasn’t intelligent enough to figure out his own folly.  The angry youths that attacked COVID-19 palliatives warehouses across the entire country were not alone. They were joined by ordinary people, pregnant women, and the army of poor Nigerian masses. What has been labelled as looting and criminality is subliminally an expression of the people’s frustration with government. Why hoard palliatives when the people are in need? To further show the rise of the lunatic fringe in high places, there has been a report that COVID-19 palliatives provided by the private sector coalition, known as CA-COVID are now actually on sale in some stores, locally and in London! 

Nigerian policemen and women suffered a lot: 22 policemen were killed, 205 police formations and stations were set ablaze, operational vehicles were destroyed. We sympathize with the Nigeria Police… and all the families who lost their loved ones in the course of the protests. Nobody deserves to die in such manner. There will be need for healing and reconciliation at all levels. However, in an attempt to rebuild trust and confidence among his men, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Mohammed Adamu has been quoted as saying that policemen have a right to defend themselves and that any policeman that is assaulted by anybody has a right to fight back. The IGP should talk more about peace building strategies rather than the politics of vengeance and confrontation. There is a Federal Government Committee in place to work out the processes for giving effect to the 5-for-5 demands. The Committee should conduct its work with the speed of light. States of the Federation have agreed to set up panels of Inquiry; about 13 states have done so, the others should hurry up. Nigerians need to know the truth and they need to know that justice will be done. The Nigerian Military stands accused. Its leaders must stop talking as if the military is above the laws of the land. Thy must learn to be humble and accountable 

 The emergence of Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the consensus candidate for the position of the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been held up by the last minute objection of the United States. The consultations process by the “Troika” saddled with the responsibility of selecting a consensus candidate in line with the Procedures for the Appointment of WTO DG (10 December 2002), followed due process and after 500 meetings and consultations, over a period of 4 months, 104 countries chose Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, 60 other members chose Ms Yoo Myung-Hee, the candidate of South Korea who along with Nigeria’s Okonjo-Iweala had made the final shortlist of 2 as of October 8.  Further consultations gave Okonjo-Iweala 163 votes. South Korea did not withdraw the candidacy of Ms Yoo, but it also did not oppose the Nigerian candidate. 

Under Articles 15-19 of its procedures, WTO chooses its DG by consensus. The General Council has now decided that a final decision will be taken on December 9, after a week of further negotiations with the United States. If that fails, the body will have no option but to activate Article 20 which talks about “recourse to voting as a last resort.” This gives us confidence and hope. Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has the critical support of her country, Nigeria, and all categories: developed, developing and other members of the WTO, across all representative continents. The US Trade Representative says “due process” has not been followed. That is not true. The attempt by the United States to tell a lie to give others a bad name is what has now united other members of the WTO Council against the United States. The US also says the WTO needs someone with “real, hands-on experience in the field.” Everyone else is convinced that Dr. Okonjo-Iweala is eminently qualified.  Look at her credentials. First Class. Outstanding. Great personality. 

The United States is playing gutter politics. This is about the US Presidential Election 2020, and the trade conflict with China. Before now, President Trump described the WTO as “horrible” and too partial to China. He wants to be seen on the eve of one of America’s most divisive elections (cf. 1800, 1824, 1860, 1960, 1968 and 2000)  as a strong nationalist who puts America first. There is also a ring of déjà vu to this. In 2012, the United States thought Okonjo-Iweala was too bold to seek the position of President of the World Bank despite the unwritten rule that the office is reserved only for Americans. The US prefers South Korea’s Ms Yoo because they think she would be more pliable. They also don’t want China to fill the slot of Deputy Director General. Okonjo-Iweala is also accused of being a globalist. Under President Trump, the US has played the politics of isolationism, unilateralism and a recourse to bilateralism on his own terms. I also think there is a racist sub-text to this: Trump has opposed every multilateral institution led by Africans: WHO and the AfDB are most recent examples. 

Will the US have its way? I don’t think so. If Trump loses the US Presidential election today, as he should, that will change the game. If he wins, the WTO, in any case, operates on a “one country one vote” basis. A recourse to “voting as a last resort”, an exceptional departure from customary practice, should get Nigeria’s candidate the job, which she certainly deserves.  

Things went out of hand very quickly with the emerging Nigerian “revolution” when on Tuesday, October 20, 2020, soldiers stormed the Lekki Toll Gate Plaza in Lagos, and started shooting. We were told they shot in the air. But the reports have been conflicting and troubling. The protesters insist that persons died, and that the attack was pre-meditated. The state authorities insist that persons were injured and that there were no corpses; may be just one. They made it sound as if one person dying was nothing to worry about. Nigeria is a country of over 200 million people. When one person dies, it is hard for the people to notice. The state does not even care. But the truth is that even if only one person died as claimed by the state government, that is enough indictment. There was no justification for anyone dying or sustaining gunshot wounds just because they took the patriotic step of protesting about injustice, police brutality, impunity and bad governance in their country. The #EndSARS protest was about justice, and good governance. The protesters were peaceful. 

In the Northern states of the country, the protest was tagged #EndInsecurityNow, and the protesters were also peaceful. At the Lekki Toll Gate in Lagos, the protesters reportedly knelt down as soldiers stormed the scene. They waved the Nigerian Flag. They sang the National Anthem. Someone had told the angry young Nigerians- those I once referred to as the “collective children of anger” - that once soldiers see the Nigerian flag, they would not dare shoot at the target. The assumption is that soldiers only shoot the enemy, not their own country’s flag. The Lekki incident in Lagos turned that principle, if that is what it is, on its head. The most impactful image from Lekki is that of a blood-stained Nigerian flag, either as fact or symbol, but nonetheless a symbol of the Nigerian government’s clamp down on young Nigerians exercising their rights under Sections 35, 39 and 40 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended).  

Away from the Lekki Toll Gate epicenter, other persons died in the course of the mayhem that ensued: from stray bullets, physical attacks, and wanton destruction. Amnesty International and other civil society groups have reported over 56 deaths. It has been so bad, so embarrassing, so disgraceful, that not even the military authorities are willing to admit that they sent soldiers to the streets. All of a sudden, Nigeria is back to the past, the military era, the bad days of dark-goggled Generals, the Abacha era, when human lives meant nothing; Nigerians disappeared in broad daylight,;and the state claimed that it would not tolerate any form of dissent. This throwback to the military era was further reinforced by the reluctance of the Nigerian leader, President Muhammadu Buhari to address the nation. Both the protesting Nigerian youths and the international community had to plead with him to take the situation in the country far more seriously and speak to the issues, empathize, say something to douse the tension in the land. 

The official response was that the President had already acceded to the five demands of the angry young protesters. So what else did they want? The President later spoke at an event tagged Presidential Youth Empowerment Scheme (P-YES) but nobody took that seriously. His promise of an investigation that will ensure justice was dismissed as an afterthought, and an aside. The minimum demand of the angry youths of Nigeria soon changed from the 5-for-5 demands to a declaration that the President must speak up, and speak directly to the youths. On Tuesday, October 20, 2020, a day that is now a defining moment in the life of the Buhari administration, Lekki Toll Gate happened. It is now known as Black Tuesday. Or the Red October. A toll gate plaza, at which angry youths of Nigeria gathered has now become a symbol, indeed a watering hole, of the conflict, the alienation, the distance between the people and those who govern them. 

After Black Tuesday, President Muhammadu Buhari finally summoned a meeting of the National Security Council.  When the meeting ended, Nigerians were told to expect something important. The President had directed the Security Chiefs to use every lawful means to restore law and order, not just in Lagos, but across the country. By then, the #AntiSARS, #AntiSWAT, #AntiInsecurityNow protests had begun to spread like wildfire. The country was in turmoil, on the boil. We were told the President would finally address the angry youths. This was by the way, 48 hours after the blow-out in Lekki, Lagos, and 14 days after everyone had been pleading with the President to have a national broadcast. Expectations were high. On Thursday, October 22, 2020, the President showed up on national television. But it was an anti-climax. The 27-paragraph, 12-minutes delivery-time broadcast by the President was shallow, hollow, condescending, full of gas lighting and completely lacking in empathy, and emotional intelligence.  It began on a note of warning, followed by threats, a thank you but shut up riposte to the international community, a bit of wrongly-timed self-congratulation about the government’s poverty alleviation programmes – now tell me, who goes to a condolence party to boast about their personal achievements! -  and it ended on a note of threat. Nigerian were flabbergasted. They complained about the failure of the President to acknowledge the lives that have been lost. There was a line in the broadcast about the policemen that died in the course of duty, and yes indeed, police lives matter, and there was another line about the attack on the palace of the Oba of Lagos whose shoes, staff of office and other valuables are now missing, but the President said nothing about the many Nigerians who died, those whose investments and assets were attacked and destroyed, not even a word about the anguish in the land, the emotional trauma of citizens at home and in diaspora who had taken to the streets in every continent to condemn the reign of anarchy and chaos in their fatherland. I have argued on Arise TV that whoever wrote the draft of the President’s speech did him a bad turn. Whoever had a hand in the construction of that broadcast is unkind. The psychology of power, especially in Nigeria’s Presidential Villa conditions the people around the President to tell him to be strong and refuse to be intimidated by anybody. They would tell him: “Sir, you are the Commander-in-Chief, you cannot appear to be weak.” They will confront him with conspiracy theories: “Sir, it is your enemies that are behind the protests in Lagos. We know them. You must teach them a lesson. Your Excellency, you have nothing to worry about sir, we will deal with those hoodlums. We have everything under control.”

While such behavior can be explained away as human and archetypal, it is unacceptable that anyone will write a speech or offer such advice that will turn the President of Nigeria into his own fall guy.  I am often reminded of the US President Harry S. Truman’s saying that the buck stops at the President’s desk, yes, but no two Presidents are the same. Buhari is not Truman. Some Presidents require more support than others. President Buhari’s advisers, who are now shockingly trying to edit, a posteriori, a speech they should have cleaned up properly, threw him under the bus. This singular error will redefine his Presidency and legacy. The best way to understand the ineffectuality of that broadcast is to assess what happened after in Nigeria, and in terms of international response to the Nigerian situation. 

Things simply got worse.  It would in fact have been better if that broadcast had not been made. Before Black Tuesday, there had been indications that hoodlums, fifth columnists and trouble-makers had hijacked the protests, infiltrated the ranks and were beginning to change the tone of the protest. With the alleged shooting and killings at Lekki Toll Gate, the peaceful protesters withdrew, and what was left was a spectacle of riotous and destructive behavior. Everything degenerated very quickly. Earlier, in Benin, Edo State, there were reports of the escape of prisoners from two prisons: the Benin Maximum prison and the Oko prison. This would eventually become a pattern as there were reports of attempted jailbreaks in Ikoyi and Kirikiri Prisons, Lagos and successful jailbreak in Okitipupa, Ondo State. Last week, in defiance of the President’s threat that those who had hijacked the protests will be dealt with, about 27 police stations in Lagos, were attacked and razed to the ground. The same was the fate of other police stations across parts of the country. Arms and ammunition and police uniforms were stolen. By weekend, Nigeria was in a state of anomie. In Lagos, Calabar, Jos, Osogbo, Ilorin Kebbi, Jalingo, warehouses storing COVID-19 palliatives were attacked by hungry and angry Nigerian youths. They said they were taking what belongs to them. They protested that it was wrong to hoard the COVID-19 palliatives meant for the people.  

It was a bizarre situation. Not all the looters were hungry young men and women. Some middle class persons also went in cars, and tricycles and carted away their own part of the loot. Some of the palliatives – bags of rice, sacks of garri, boxes of Indomie and other food items …were found in private homes. In Lagos, the majority leader of the State House of Assembly said the palliatives found in his house in Ikorodu were being kept for distribution during the celebration of his forthcoming birthday. In Ibadan, another prominent politician from whose home over 300 motorcycles and 200 refrigerators were carted away said the materials were meant for the people’s empowerment. In Ilorin, Kwara State, soldiers were seen telling looters to loot peacefully and return peacefully! In Calabar, the home of Senator Gershom Bassey was raided. Furniture and other household items were carted away. Other persons and institutions were not so lucky. In Lagos, iconic buildings were set ablaze. BRT terminals across the city were torched, along with newly bought buses. In Calabar, 52 different sites were attacked. The home of Senator Victor Ndoma-Egba was set ablaze. Malls, supermarkets, private assets were not spared in Lagos, Ebonyi, Benin, Abia, Kano, Jos, Calabar, Kebbi and Taraba. Banks and their ATMs were a special target. The President’s words about maintaining law and order rang hollow. As the violence raged, the police were nowhere to be seen. The military also beat a tactical retreat and opted in Lagos for a strategy of pacification. Military officers became preachers appealing to the people to “calm down”.   

What happened in Lekki on October 20, and the tone-deaf Presidential broadcast also seemed to have energized Nigerians in diaspora. After the President’s speech, more Nigerians trooped to the streets of UK, Germany and Canada to register their displeasure. The international community, asked by President Buhari to get the facts right before jumping to conclusions simply ignored him. It was after that ill-fated speech that the following spoke up: the Pope, the Archbishop of Canterbury, the US Department of State, the Congressional Black Caucus, the Special Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and many more. All of a sudden, Nigeria was on its way to becoming a pariah state all over again, as Nigerians signed petitions, directed at world parliaments and the International Criminal Court (ICC) to ask that Nigerian leaders should be blacklisted and arraigned for crimes against humanity.   

Before Black Tuesday, there were insinuations of an ethnic, religious and geographical tint to the protests. The first sign in that regard was the emergence of a Pro-SARS group that emerged in Abuja and the Northern part of the country, a certain Northern Youth Alliance (NYA) which argued that there was nothing wrong with the Nigeria Police and that indeed, the people of the North needed the Special Anti-Robbery Squad that is considered lawless by protesters in the South. Before long, anti-SARS protesters were being chased off the streets in a violent manner by the pro-SARS groups, particularly in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Northern Governors would also soon visit the Presidential Villa to tell the President that the people of the North need SARS. What was meant to be a peaceful protest against police brutality which exists all over Nigeria, was thus reduced to the politics of ethnicity and geography. Eventually, a group known as the Northern Coalition of Youth Groups joined the fray. It called for protests across the 19 Northern states, but the coalition focused majorly on insecurity and banditry and the failure of the Northern leadership elite. The most fertile arena for a revolution is the mind of the people. But Nigeria was in the grips of collective psychogenesis. In Calabar, a psychiatric hospital was attacked. The patients were freed. The beds were carted away. Across the streets of Nigeria, armed robbers, thieves, mental health patients, drug addicts took over what started out as a peaceful protest. In Lagos, there were reported clashes between the Yoruba and the Hausa Fulani. One Yoruba boy in London asked Igbos to leave Lagos. Another Igbo activist in Europe reportedly asked Igbos in Lagos to attack Yoruba interests and investments.  

This is what happens when leadership and the state are compromised. The #EndSARS protest in Nigeria has gone through all the initial stages of a full scale revolution as seen in the French, American, Orange, Red and Velvet Revolutions. The crisis must not be allowed to tip over. Losing the trust and confidence of the same young Nigerians, and the international community, that brought them to power in 2015 and 2019 is the biggest damage that the APC and President Muhammadu Buhari have both suffered.  But what are the lessons of the current rude awakening? The gains. The loopholes. Next week.  

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The Falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity

 

Surely some revelation is at hand…

-               W.B. Yeats, The Second Coming (1919)

 

The poem quoted above: “The Second Coming” by Irish poet William Butler Yeats (1919) is probably one of the most adapted and quoted poems in world literature, and in politics and culture, to describe moments of anxiety, uncertainty and a seeming “slouching towards” chaos and anarchy in any community.  Written in 1919, in the context of the Spanish flu, after the First World War which ended in November 1918, and at the beginning of the Irish War of Independence (1919 – 1921), W.B. Yeats’s poem helps to encapsulate the horror, confusion, the disarray, the despair that has overtaken Nigeria in the last two weeks, in the wake of a revolt by Nigeria’s Generation Z, a generation that insists that they can no longer tolerate the failure of the Nigerian state and leadership. They are saying “Enough is Enough”, and they would not be deterred until they see concrete assurance that the change that they demand is in the horizon. The “slouching beast” of their protest is a notorious unit of the Nigeria Police: the much dreaded, now defunct Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). SARS was known for its brutality, its indulgence in extra-judicial killing and the lives of many innocent Nigerians which its members deleted with impunity. Police brutality is not the only beast: the youths of Nigeria have since identified more beasts: a problematic foreign exchange rate, cybercrime and fraud, fuel price hike, legislators who are underworked and overpaid, terrorist herdsmen, unemployment, bad roads, a failed leadership elite – all of which combined threaten the future of the average Nigerian youth. They want to take charge of their own future. They want to take their country back as they now say - “#one-step-at-a-time”. 

For the past two weeks however, the street protests that have been staged by the youths have assumed a new life, resulting in a great disruption. The protests have spread like wild fire, fuelled by innovation, creativity and “passionate intensity”. One striking feature of it is how it has taken the shape and form of community transmission, especially in Lagos where every neighborhood feels obliged to organize its own version of the protest. On Monday, October 19, the state of Lagos was practically on lockdown. Every major street junction was blocked by angry youths playing music, wielding placards of protest, and asking motorists to either join the protest or return home. At the Lekki end of the city, the Lekki toll gate has been shut down since the beginning of the protests. That particular spot has emerged as the nerve-centre of youth revolt, and a cultural melting pot where solidarity is the normative code, and rebellion is the spirit of the congregation.  

In Abuja, critical road arteries were also blocked, effectively shutting down the entire Federal Capital Territory. The road to the International Airport was occupied. Northern Youths under the aegis of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG) are also protesting across the 19 states of the North. The difference between the protests in the North and the protests from the Middle Belt to the South lies in  the emphasis by the Northern groups on the need to end insecurity in the North. Essentially, there is a meeting of minds among Nigerian youths, North or South, that something terrible has gone wrong with our country that needs to be fixed. The other exception that we have seen are those “rented” youths whose sponsors are yet unknown who attack the protesters in Abuja and Lagos, those who steal from youths who are fighting to save Nigeria, and those youths who are giving the emerging revolution a bad name by engaging in acts of violence.   

The sad part of the protests so far is the degeneration into violence. What was conceived as and which began as a peaceful protest has now turned bloody. It has now been overtaken by the Nigerian factor. It would be most unfortunate if the protesters lose focus or they are pushed to do so. Amnesty International reported last week that about 10 persons had died in the course of the protests. The number has increased since hoodlums infiltrated the protests and policemen who had been warned by the Inspector General of Police began to shoot at protesters. The emerging picture is frightening. In Osogbo, Osun State on Saturday, the convoy of the State Governor, Adegboyega Oyetola was attacked. The Governor insists that it was an attempt to assassinate him. In Abuja, more than four deaths have been reported within a week. Yesterday, Benin City went up in flames. Police stations and vehicles were set ablaze. Prisoners jumped the fence at the Benin prison and escaped. Just as we defend the right to protest, any act of violence is also condemnable. It is in order to prevent this that the Nigerian Civil Society has been very vocal in insisting that the police, the military and other security agencies must not turn their guns on protesters, or arrest or detain or harass them. It is also in part why the decision of the Nigerian Army to launch Operation Crocodile Smile VI in the middle of a nationwide protest has been criticized for its bad timing. The explanation that the Operation has nothing to do with the #EndSARS protest has been dismissed as insincere. Soldiers have now been seen on the streets of Abuja, confronting #EndSARS protesters. Things are clearly falling apart…

The protesters claim that they are being provoked, or blackmailed, but as the days go by, it is difficult to identify a coherent strategy despite the gains that have been recorded. In the absence of an identified and structured leadership, the protest is at best amorphous. The Northern anti-insecurity protesters appear to be better organized. Every zone has a leader with published details. In the South, every man or woman who goes out to protest is a leader in his or her own right. This has resulted in internal bickering, and much in-fighting. Each member of the protest would seem to have an agenda of their own: from the adoption of protest as a new found vocation, or the enjoyment of the carnival-esque ambience of the protests. What needs to be watched also is the manner in which the protest in full flight is beginning to alienate those who should naturally be part of it. The organizers should also watch out against inflicting emotional pain and psychological violence on the same persons whose interests they are fighting for. We are all involved in the struggle to save Nigeria. There is no Nigerian who has not suffered a form of police brutality or the other or the impunity of uniformed state officials. The various stories that have been told convey our collective pain and the depth of our anguish, and the drowning of our innocence. But when protesters block a major highway, and all arterial roads from dawn to dusk, they inflict pain on innocent persons. 

For days, people living in the Lekki part of Lagos have not been able to go to work or go about their daily business. When people go to work on the Island from the Mainland, they are not sure of what awaits them on the road. Protesters take over the roads and harass motorists. The Lagos Ibadan Expressway has been shut down repeatedly in the last two weeks. Transporters are put through enormous stress.  The supply chain between Lagos and other parts of the country is disrupted. The economic impact of the on-going protest is huge. A newspaper investigation reveals that since the protests started in Lagos, the closure of the Lekki toll gate alone has resulted in a loss of about N234 million. When all this is over, is there any guarantee that the managers of that toll gate will not take it out on the young people who work daily at that toll gate. And there have been reports as well of persons who died in the last two weeks because they could not be rushed to the hospital because the roads have been blocked. All schools in Lagos have been shut down over #EndSARS protests. My point is this: while the right to protest is sacrosanct, it needs not extend to a violation of other people’s rights. 

Nigeria faces a dilemma. How would the present crisis be resolved? The Federal Government has accepted all the five demands placed before it by Nigerian youths, North and South. It has dissolved the Special Anti-Robbery Squad. It has announced the establishment of a Special Weapons and Tactical Unit (SWAT), which has been roundly laughed off because of its peremptoriness and lack of originality. A total of 37 officers have either been reprimanded, demoted or dismissed from the Police for having been involved one or the other in the abuse of office and privilege. In Lagos, four officers have been named and are likely to face prosecution. At the last National Economic Council meeting chaired by the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, it was agreed that every state government and the Federal Capital Territory should set up a judicial panel of inquiry to investigate all cases of police brutality and extra-judicial killing and ensure that justice is done. By yesterday, six states have set up the panels as agreed, and two - Lagos and Kaduna states- have inaugurated them. In addition, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo has personally offered Nigerian youths an apology. The First Lady, Mrs. Aisha Buhari has also called on the Nigerian government to “rescue the people.” Yesterday, the Minister of Youth and Sports Development, Sunday Dare after a meeting with the President at the Presidential Villa reported that the President has appealed to #EndSARS protesters to give government time to address their demands; they have spoken and he has heard and that the reforms they are asking for will happen. 

Indeed, the protesters have achieved a lot in two weeks. They have demonstrated the power of solidarity and the importance of their voice. This generation of protesters is not ready to “off the mic”. They insist on being heard. Their voice is so clear, it has been amplified across the world by celebrities, governments and Nigerians in Diaspora who have taken to the streets in about 10 countries of the world to draw attention to the Nigerian crisis. We have seen impressive displays of character and humanism as the story of the revolution continues to unfold, the physically challenged like Jane Obiene and Charles Nnama -  victims of police brutality - who joined the protest and got the support and adulation of others. The nursing mothers who took their children to join the protest. The elderly mothers who protested on behalf of all mothers who lost a son, a daughter, a husband or a relative to police brutality. An 89-year old citizen, Professor JTK Duncan showed up at the barricades, waving the Nigerian flag. Aisha Yesufu remains irrepressible. The Feminist Coalition, which has coordinated donations to the cause and the setting up of helplines is the very definition of responsible citizenship. We have also witnessed a harvest of creativity: new songs by Davido, Asa, Fikky, Kabex, Ripple Effect, Falz and M.I. Abaga which define the protest; many more are emerging: short skits, paintings, memes, ingenuous tweets…an online SORO SOKE radio platform, Nollywood movies in the making…The protest has been teleological, technological, poetic and physical. 

But when and how will these protests end? The real protest is in the mind of every young Nigerian who has been disappointed by the Nigerian state and who prays for a better country. No one can put a final date to that. The youth of Nigeria will not begin to trust their governments because of a few concessions and fine rhetoric. When their country changes for the better, they will be the first to know. But protest as an event cannot be an end in itself. I believe that with the present outing, the time has come for an audit and a review of strategy after two weeks. The protesters must resist the temptation to be turned into shooting targets by a state that is becoming overwhelmed: in Lagos protesters reportedly took over the international airport; in Benin, prisoners escaped, and in the face of all that, some government officials are beginning to tell us that the government of Nigeria will not stand by and allow anarchy to reign. To whom it may concern: The time has come for a review of strategy and tactics. 

As for the Federal Government of Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari should step forward and address the angry youths of Nigeria at home and in diaspora. He can no longer afford to speak through proxies and third parties. The protesters won’t listen to such persons. They don’t trust anyone at all at this moment. The Falcon can no longer pretend not to hear the Falconer. This is the time to change the narrative of the on-going protest, and only you, Mr. President can do it. Talk directly to the youths of Nigeria. Then sack one or two guilty persons to show that you truly believe in the principle of fairness. Seize the moment. Now. 

The increase in the pump price of fuel, in 2020, a fall-out of the deregulation of the downstream sector, did not compel the youths of Nigeria to troop out onto the streets. The additional hike in electricity tariffs was not enough to ignite their anger either. The government of the day explained to the people that the additional burden of higher prices was part of the sacrifice they had to make as citizens. The impact of COVID-19 was hobbling the country: loss of revenue, inflation, a weak national currency, foreign exchange crisis. The people showed understanding. The strongest point about the average Nigerian is that he or she is resilient, long-suffering, yet ever ready to give up a little comfort for the country’s sake. Nigerian leaders do not show as much readiness or patriotism in the same manner. Nonetheless, Nigerians continue to endure, but the lesson of the #EndSARS crisis that has now engulfed the country is that it is not good to take the people’s patience for granted.  

Last week, it took an encounter between a young man and the notorious Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (FSARS) in Ughelli, Delta State, for the people to cry out and show their outrage over unending cases of police brutality. A young man by name Ochuko, was first said to have been killed by the men of the FSARS. It was later established that he did not die. He was brutalized. His vehicle was seized by the police. He ended up in hospital. The Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Festus Keyamo, SAN who was born in Ughelli intervened and tried to explain. He said the victim was alive and that in fact, the outfit involved in the encounter was not SARS, but Operation Delta Safe. These were policemen all the same. The youths of Ughelli therefore turned their anger on the police. Whether it was Operation Delta Safe or SARS did not matter, the truth is that the Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad established in 1992 has over the years become synonymous with impunity and brutality.  

CSP Simeon Danladi Midenda (assisted by DSP Taiwo Lakanu) who helped to set up the unit as a default strategy at the time, is on record as having said that the unit, one of 14 in the Nigeria Police Crime and Intelligence Division, has “deviated from the original concept.” The exact nature of that deviation is that over the years, Nigerians concluded that FSARS had transformed from being a crime-fighting unit of the Nigeria Police into a criminal unit, granted automatic immunity by official status and the guns that they wield. Rather than fight armed robbery, SARS officials spent more time terrorizing Nigerians. The many stories that have been written about this unit of the Nigeria Police convey a picture of how Nigeria itself has deteriorated and how institutions of state can be easily used to condone and promote impunity. In 1971, Nigerian policemen killed Kunle Adepeju, a promising Nigerian student at the University of Ibadan, who was not even involved in a protest about the inefficiency and incompetence of a University catering manager. 

In April 1978, the police killed Nigerian students for daring to query the then Olusegun Obasanjo military regime.  The government had increased the cost of meal on campuses by 50k per day. The students revolted. The Nigeria Police, this same one, joined by soldiers who were called out to quell the protests, littered every campus from Zaria to Lagos with corpses. In 1981, they killed Dele Udoh, a 24-year old, award winning athlete.  He was gunned down for having the temerity to argue with a policeman. With the emergence of a unit of the Nigeria Police Force called Nigerian Mobile Police (MOPOL) Nigerians were finally confronted with the spectre of police brutality in full force. It was a para-military police unit. It would eventually distinguish itself internationally and bring laurels to Nigeria in UN, AU, ECOWAS international peace-keeping operations. But locally, the MOPOL, as it was called, was known for its human rights abuses. Under Inspector-General of Police, Sunday Adewusi (1981- 1983), the MOPOL became so notorious, so evil, that it was called the “Kill and Go Police”.

After dismissing the civilian Shehu Shagari administration in 1983, the military rulers that came after had to whittle down the influence of the MOPOL. It had become a threat not just to society but also the military.  MOPOL may have been bad but SARS is worse. Nigeria’s Special Anti-Robbery Squad inherited the “Kill and Go” label and turned it into a shameless brand. Nobody is spared. You only need to drive a good car, wear dreadlocks, look like you had just returned from an overseas trip, speak with a foreign accent, or look like the son or daughter or wife of a rich man, or make the mistake of being seen with an expensive phone or tablet, and you automatically become a target. Walking too confidently on the streets of Nigeria is now regarded as a crime by SARS policemen and yet, the Nigerian Constitution guarantees the freedom of movement. SARS officials pry into people’s bags, enter their houses and look into soup pots and refrigerators, and ask for a share of family assets or else, they will “kill and go” and as they often say, “nothing will happen.”  And indeed, often, and always, nothing happens, and if anything happens at all, such policemen are protected by the police and subsequently rewarded with promotion and better postings. They are not answerable to anybody in the state to which they are deployed. They operate as a Federal Force! This is exactly the problem. A Police system that is supposed to protect the safety of lives and property but which operates like an enemy of the people, and the state lacks the will to do what is right, is a threat to everyone.  

It has been argued that we should never have expected, and should not expect much from the Modern Nigeria Police.  It was established by the colonial authorities as a force of domination, division, suppression, and control, and so the argument goes, we should expect the Modern Nigeria Police Force to remain true to its antecedents. The weakness of that argument is that it props up colonial determinism. It has been 60 years after independence. We can’t keep blaming the past. My take, in fact is that the colonial police master is much better than the post-colonial police masters we now have. Present day internal colonialists are far less human than the British colonialists. There are many Nigerians who will readily argue that colonialism had its good sides, highlighted ironically by the wickedness of a generation that inherited independence and subverted it. 

Too many panels and committees have been set up to reform the Nigeria Police: why has that not worked? For more than 40 years, civil society groups in Nigeria and the International Community have been drawing attention to human rights abuses by the Nigeria Police: why has nobody listened? Every Inspector General of Police since the 1990s has talked about Police Reform, Police decentralization, Police restructuring, but that has also not worked. The current #EndSARS protest is a response to years of inaction and the deafness of the Nigerian state. The argument is not about a colonial heritage. It is about the failure of leadership. This is worsened by the fact that the protesters do not trust the Nigerian government anymore. There is nothing new about police brutality and the violation of human rights by the Nigerian State, but the people have seen that it may never end. For the past four years, there have been similar protests and demands. This is not the first time Government will restructure the notorious SARS or direct that checkpoints should be disbanded. In 2017, 2018, 2019, the police hierarchy gave the same directives. The police simply went about their duties and punished the people even more. It is tragic to have a Police system that the people do not trust.   

After the aforementioned Ughelli incident, the Inspector General of Police - Mohammed Adamu announced that SARS officials had been ordered off the streets, checkpoints banned and that every SARS official must wear a uniform. The public laughed. They dismissed the directive as “an audio directive.” AUDIO used in that context in Nigeria’s street talk means mere sound, nothing of substance, it can be heard but there is nothing to it because it is deceptive and dishonest. The people have been proven right. When a people begin to call those who are supposed to protect them liars and hypocrites, something has gone crazy in that society, and a bomb is ticking. Indeed, within 24 hours after the IGP’s mollifying directives, SARS officials were seen again on the streets, acting like emperors as usual.  The people then resolved that “Enough is Enough”. In Ughelli, Lagos, Osogbo, Abuja, and elsewhere, they confronted the SARS officials. The Police fought back. Nigeria now looks like a scene out of William Shakespeare’s Coriolanus.  “Na on top that matter we dey since oh” as the people say. 

The people standing up to the Nigeria Police are to be exact, the youths of Nigeria. The #EndSARS campaign is an expression of youth power. What we have seen is a whole generation speaking up. Their protest goes beyond police brutality. It is an outflow of pent up anger about how Nigeria has been mismanaged over the years. It is a protest about the failure of the state, the reign of impunity and the abuse of uniform, not just by the police, but Customs, Immigration, Civil Defence, Road Safety officials, and anyone who wears an official uniform and thinks he or she has been empowered to humiliate and oppress less privileged Nigerians.  But the Phoenix has risen. Before now, many young Nigerians kept calling on the older generation of activists to speak up for them about contemporary issues. The majority actually thought the duty of liberating Nigeria should be carried out by the same set of old actors. This time, new heroes and heroines have shown up from the most unlikely quarters. Their protest goes beyond police brutality. It demonstrates the power of technology and the nature of a modern revolution and its potency. The Arab Spring was triggered off in December 2010, by an act of self-immolation by a Tunisian youth in protest over police corruption and brutality. In Nigeria, a Revolutionary Spring has been afoot for days. Well, almost. 

Nigerian youths took over not just the streets of Nigeria, they possessed the international social media space. They ignited the fire of patriotism at home and in Diaspora. There have been protests by Nigerians across the world- in Paris, London, Johannesburg, Monrovia, Dublin and elsewhere. On Twitter, a dedicated team called out international celebrities and governments to help defend the rights of Nigerians to live in peace in their country.  Within 24 hours, the #EndSARS campaign became the Number one trending topic on social media worldwide. Governments and embassies joined the protest, calling on the Nigerian government to address the grievances of its angry citizens. I saw Drake, Cardi B, John Boyega, Trey Songz, Chance the Rapper, Estelle, global cultural figures asking questions about Nigeria. It was in the government’s interest to respond. The IGP has now announced a complete disbandment of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, but two days later, nobody trusted him. Nigerian youths shouted “AU-DI-O”. They have remained on the streets. They have asked that the President of Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari must address the nation. He has now done so. It was in his interest to do so. Every step that has been taken by the Nigerian government in the last three days is not because the government listens, but a response to a desperate situation. #EndSARS was beginning to graduate to an #EndNigeria campaign. Even the Vice President and one of his daughters joined the campaign. One of the President’s daughters, Zahra Buhari also tweeted on the side of the people. The children of both billionaires and the poor are united. One of them, DJ Cuppy, has said she had to defy other people’s counsel but as a young Nigerian she felt obliged to speak up. 

The #EndSARS campaign has produced new heroes. We have seen an expression of youth anger and patriotism that we never expected was possible. Omoyele Sowore, the activist who ignited the fire that now burns, must be pleased. The other hero is Aisha Yesufu, the foster daughter of the North, who has emerged as a symbol of the protest. There is Rinu, the young lady who acted as spokesperson at the Lagos State House of Assembly. And Segun Awosanya, the #EndSARS architect and spirit. Deji Adeyanju.  Dipo Awojide. Reno Omokri. There are others: those who lived, those who died, the living ancestors, and members of Corporate Nigeria who stood up to be counted. The Nollywood and Creative Industry team gave verve to the protest: Falz the Bad Guy, Wizkid, Davido, Tiwa Savage, Paul Okoye, Rema, Don Jazzy, Mike Edwards, Genevieve Nnaji, Toke Makinwa, too many to mention… and the BBNaija queen – Tacha showing that far beyond beauty and brains, conscience matters… Notably, there is no single hero. The youths of Nigeria led themselves. They blocked politicians from hijacking the protest, and therein lies the strength of this unfolding Nigerian story. We have not yet seen the end of it. It is a much bigger story: the story of how a strategic police unit that used to be known as the “Scorpions” ended up as a group of “Monkeys”, looking for “Bananas”, so badly they became involved in land matters, snatched ATM cards, and became “AsSARSins.”     

On Friday, October 2, the news channels were inundated with the Breaking News of US President Donald Trump and the First Lady of the United States, Melania Trump’s COVID-19 infection. Barely three days earlier the US President taking part in the first Presidential debate between him and the candidate of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden had mockingly talked about Joe Biden’s mask: “the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”  Many members of the Trump camp at the debate, including the First family, did not bother to wear masks. Consistently, President Trump flouted COVID-19 protocols. He attended rallies and events where the same protocols were ignored. Veteran journalist Bob Woodward, in his most recent book, Rage, has disclosed that whereas the President was aware of COVID-19 as far back as February 2020, he made light of it, chose to “play it down”, because he didn’t want to spread panic and fear. More like Mr. Trump wanted to show that he is a macho man, a Superman. He encouraged denialism. He refused to listen to the scientists. At some point, he even took over the job of the scientists and began to announce prescriptions for COVID-19. His usual victim in that regard is the top US physician, Dr. Robert Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the most recent being Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centre for Disease Control. 

From his promotion of Hydroxychloroquine to his dismissal of COVID-19 as a common flu, it is ironic that President Trump is now in “a mortal battle” with COVID-19. He has also put his wife at risk, in the same manner in which he put the lives of over 214, 000 persons who have died from COVID-19 related complications in the United States at risk.  US COVID-19 sero-prevalence is over 7.6 million.  Nine states are witnessing a second wave of the deadly disease, including the state of New York which crawled out of being the US epicentre of the disease, but has now had to impose new restrictions. President Trump’s COVID-19 infection is self-inflicted. He is paying a price for his own carelessness, and has imposed on the country that he leads uncertainty and the possibility of chaos. Trump is an old man of 74. He has underlying medical conditions. Can you imagine the President of the United States dying in an election season, less than a month to a Presidential election? Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 situation in the United States is a threat to US national security. It is a threat to the security of the world! Already, the Speaker of the Parliament in Taiwan, You Si-kun has expressed the view that President Trump must remain alive, and get better, so he can continue to help check-mate the excesses of China. We also want him alive, and we join others in wishing him and the First Lady of the United States, speedy recovery. Mr. Trump’s paternal grandfather, Friedrich Trump, died during the Spanish flu in 1918. We do not wish him the same fate. 

But there are lessons and implications that should be stressed. President Trump is the most powerful man in the world. He is also the most protected American alive today. If he can come down with COVID-19, then the point is proven again that we are all vulnerable in the face of this contagious disease that has no cure, and respects no persons. The question right now is: how many persons in the White House and around the President are infected? The spread of a pandemic within the highest levels of government in the United States is enough to cause panic. President Trump is not the first American President to fall ill in the White House. In 1955, President Dwight Eisenhower had a heart attack. The public was told he had a stomach upset! President John F. Kennedy struggled with chronic back pain and Addison’s disease. 

The natural instinct is to cover up the truth about the President’s health. In July 1893, the then President of the United States, Grover Cleveland disappeared. He had a non-malignant tumour, diagnosed as epithelioma, and was smuggled out to sea for a secret surgery. It was too risky politically to announce any form of weakness in the White House. A newspaperman, E.J. Edwards, got wind of the story and blew the whistle. He was branded a liar, and dismissed as ‘a disgrace to journalism”. It took more than a century before the truth came out. In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson came down with the Spanish Flu.  The public was told the President had a cold.  President Franklin Delano Roosevelt suffered polio. It was carefully managed. It should therefore not be surprising that in 2020, a certain political theatre has been built around President Trump’s COVID-19 infection.  He was admitted into the Walter Reed Military Medical Centre on Friday after two sharp drops in his oxygen level, and confirmation that he had high fever.  By Sunday, the Superman Trump had recovered well enough that he even made an impromptu appearance in the form of a drive-by in the course of which he waved at his fans who had besieged the Medical Centre. 

Dr. James Phillips, one of his physicians has described that political stunt as an “act of insanity”. He says the “irresponsibility is astounding.” Dr. Phillips cannot be more correct. After a pattern, President Trump continues to play politics with COVID-19. He puts the lives of others at risk. He misleads the country and the world. There is a collapse of protocol and standards around him. His handlers short-change the American people by dropping the ball. They have allowed themselves to be brow-beaten by a President who is both a bully and an egoist. They are all so overwhelmed by his personality they would just allow him to get away with anything, even when national security is obviously compromised. By Monday, we were already being told that Mr. Trump will be back in the White House. I don’t envy Sean Conley, the White House Physician. He must be having a hard time. But he and his team owe Americans a duty to tell the truth about the President’s health condition, and to ensure there are no further stunts that make no sense. And if we may ask: is President Trump directing his doctors?  When the President of the United States checks into the Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre, is he an infectious disease patient looking for help, or the Commander-in-Chief of the hospital?

US stock futures contracted following the announcement of President Trump’s infection. Markets in Europe and Asia posted the same response. The Democrats made heavy capital out of it. We were told the Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden had tested negative. In the polls he further jumped ahead of President Trump, with a double-digit lead. In another poll, 65% of Americans reportedly believe that Trump would not have been infected if he had been more careful. The only good news is that deadly as COVID-19 is, it is not actually a death sentence. Trump is not the first Head of State and Head of Government to contract it.  Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Juan Orlando Hernandez (Honduras), Jeanine Anez (Bolivia), Prince Albert II (Monaco); Alexander Lukashenko (Belarus), Nikol Pashinyan (Armenia), Alejandro Giammattei (Guatemala), Boris Johnson (United Kingdom) all contracted COVID-19 and survived. Burundi’s former President, Pierre Nkurunziza wasn’t so lucky. But persons older than Mr. Trump despite the established revelation that the elderly are more vulnerable, have also managed to beat the disease: Bill Lapschies, 104, US; Ada Zanusso, 104, Spain; Geneva Wood, 90 years; US; Alma Corsini, 95, Italy; William Kelly, 95, US; Joseph Zhu Baoyu, 98, China, Italica Grondona, 102, Italy… 

As President of the most powerful country in the world, there is little doubt that President Trump and his wife will get the best care possible. Every effort must be made to ensure that he gets that care and he must be restrained from any kind of reckless conduct. There have been conspiracy theories about Mr. Trump’s COVID. I have heard the view that this is all a contrivance to gain sympathy for the November 2020 Presidential election.  I disagree. It will be the height of insanity for any one to play that kind of politics, and to be supported in doing so by the entire American establishment. What may happen is that Mr. Trump will survive COVID-19, and he will exploit that politically to tell every one that he is indeed a Super Man who has beaten COVID and will now also beat the rival he refers to as “sleepy Joe”.  Except that Joe Biden is not sleeping. He wants Americans to vote Trump, a disruptive and divisive President, out of the White House. He is fully awake. And he showed that during the first Presidential debate when he trounced President Trump on all counts: composure, maturity, depth and decorum. Every step must be taken to restore President Trump to full health, so that he can take the sure defeat that awaits him on November 3, 2020, with his full chest, alive and well, on his feet. Another good news, though, is that when it was reported on Sunday that his health had begun to improve and that he would return to the White House on Monday, US Stock futures rose by more than 100 points. Trump Watch has become a market-moving barometer.      

The year 2020 will go down in history as the year of illness and death. But the biggest test that the world has faced in every sphere is the test of character and leadership. Leaders are expected to show example, empathy, strength and support, but this has been difficult for many. There is no leader that has received any prior training in the management of COVID-19. It is an accident of our century, even if we have no idea what the future holds. Nobody is invincible, not even the President of the most powerful country in the world. What we know however is that the countries that have done better managing COVID-19 are the countries whose leaders have shown great discipline and commitment, and by the way, those leaders are mostly women: Mette Frederiksen (Denmark), Tsai Ing-wen (Taiwan), Jacinda Arden (New Zealand), Sanna Marin (Finland) Katrin Jakobsdottir (Iceland), Erna Solberg (Norway), and Angela Merkel (Germany).   The ones who have not done well are mostly men: Donald Trump (United States), his protégé and imitator, “the Trump of the Tropics” - Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Narendra Modi (India), Viktor Orban (Hungary), Vladimir Putin (Russia), John Magufuli (Tanzania). The women leaders have something in common: empathy and love, and being pro-active and risk averse.  The men also have something in common: they are arrogant, offensive, and divisive. They think they know it all and they have more than often in the course of the crisis and uncertainty that COVID-19 has brought along endangered the lives of the people they lead and their own lives as well. National leaders can make a difference. Mr. Trump’s COVID-19 infection should be a reminder of the importance of responsible leadership and conduct, and the fact that nobody, not even a President, is above the rules. 

The Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu has reportedly directed that all tactical squads of the Nigeria Police should stand down, stand back and stay away from Nigerian streets and desist forthwith from carrying out routine patrols, stop and search duties, traffic checks and mounting of roadblocks. 

The tactical squads include the notorious Federal Special Anti-Robbery Squad (FSARS), the Special Tactical Squad, Intelligence Response Team, Anti-Cultism Squad and others – all ad-hoc units of the Nigeria Police created to serve one special purpose or the other. When the Special Anti-Robbery Squad was created in 1992 under the Ibrahim Babangida Administration, it was a child of necessity, with just 15 officers, but it has since then grown into a rogue unit of the Nigeria Police with an incorrigible reputation for brutality, violence, extra-judicial killing and human rights abuses. This has since prompted many Nigerians to call for a complete disbandment of the Squad. Four times in the last four years, one Inspector General of Police after another has tried to reform or restrain the Special Anti-Robbery Squad. Each time directives relating to Standard Operating Procedures, and Rules of Engagement are issued, they have been ignored. 

The so-called tactical squads of the Nigeria Police have not succeeded in checking the crimes of kidnapping and armed robbery, but they have consistently used the uniforms they wear to commit crime, kill and maim and terrorize Nigerians. They have not done much to improve confidence in the Nigeria Police. Nigerians who have been unfortunate to encounter them think that they are extortionists, thieves and thugs.  Many of them don’t even bother to wear uniform, making it difficult to distinguish between them and hoodlums. They set up roadblocks and target young men and ladies. They seize phones and treat every one as a criminal. They harass the public. Whoever tries to insist on his or her right risks instant assassination, or a bullet in the groin. What is the guarantee that the latest directives by the Inspector General of Police will be enforced?       

There is nothing contained in the Inspector General’s statement, issued on his behalf by the Police Spokesperson and amplified by the Presidency, that we have not heard before.  Nigeria is probably the only country in the world where the country’s Number one policeman will issue a policy directive and he will be ignored by his own lieutenants and foot-soldiers and nothing will happen. We have a Police institution it seems, where nobody is actually in charge. The problem is not the lack of vigilance on the part of civil society. Many stakeholders have called for better policing. The catalyst for the latest public outrage is the attack on a young man in Ughelli, Delta State. The IGP has made the usual noise. He must be held down to his words. The starting point should be a thorough investigation of the report of police brutality in Ughelli, and similar cases, and clear indication that the Police under IGP Mohammed Adamu’s watch takes discipline seriously. In addition, every policeman involved in any act of brutality must be sent to a mental health facility. 

I was very skeptical when the current leadership of Organized Labour in Nigeria objected to the decision of the Federal Government to withdraw fuel subsidy and hand over the pump price of petrol to the forces of demand and supply, also known as market forces. Labour, represented by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC), and their affiliates and privies in civil society, further threatened that they were opposed to the hike in electricity tariffs. They issued a statement in which they railed against neo-liberal policies, bad timing, and the insensitivity of government. They made heavy weather out of the hardship that COVID-19 has imposed on the people and why any form of additional taxation that could pressurize the people would be utterly unacceptable. Deregulation of the downstream sector is not a new subject in Nigeria. Removal of fuel subsidy is an old subject. Only the dumb and the deaf would deny being aware of the persistent argument that a functioning electricity sector in Nigeria would unleash the country’s energy and potentials, through the values derivable therefrom: saving of costs, creation of jobs, a value-added SME, an improved manufacturing sector and a happier, more productive citizenry. 

In 2012, when the Jonathan administration announced a full deregulation of the downstream sector and removal of fuel subsidy, Organized Labour aligned with opposition politicians and turned the argument on its head. They called out their troops and a thoroughly hypnotized political class, and workers’ community, fostered tension and instability in the system. In 2016, the party that succeeded the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), that is the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its leaders who had lied to Nigerians that there was no fuel subsidy in the country, but unconscionable theft, and that the Jonathan government was wrong, promptly increased fuel prices. They argued that a fuel subsidy regime was not sustainable: the same argument that they opposed in 2012. 

Their conspirators at the time in Organized Labour kept mute. In 2020, with COVID-19 disrupting everything in the world including relationships, with Nigeria suffering a debt and revenue crisis, the collapse of fiscal buffers, and sheer adversity, the Federal Government decided to pull the plugs. It blamed all of these factors and chose to announce a removal of fuel subsidy.  Pump price of fuel, benchmarked to the spot price of crude oil in the international market jumped through the roof. Nigerians groaned. The Federal Government argued that it was not left with any other option.  Everyone expected that Organized Labour would intervene. But Labour didn’t quite do so. Groups in civil society had to picket the Abuja Headquarters of the Nigeria Labour Congress to protest that the NLC should speak up and call the people out on the streets, because life had become harsh and hard for the average Nigerian. 

After being pushed, a combined team of the NLC and TUC finally announced that they would call out Labour on strike and shut down the country. They gave the Federal Government stringent conditions: a complete reversal of the hike in fuel price and electricity tariffs. Or else, Nigeria would be shut down indefinitely beginning from September 28, 2020. I was not impressed. I questioned Labour’s sincerity of purpose. I felt they were just playing a game. The biggest tragedy that has befallen Organized Labour in Nigeria is the thinking since 1999, that the leadership of Labour can be used as a stepping stone to a bigger role in Nigeria. Labour leaders use their positions to negotiate big benefits. They mouth progressive slogans and parrot aggressive rhetoric but it is all a lie. 

Under the military, there was a man called Paschal Bafyau who used the ladder of Labour leadership to gain prominence. Matthew Hassan Kukah in his book - Democracy and Civil Society In Nigeria (Ibadan: Spectrum, 1999) considers him “a sell-out”.  With the return to democracy in 1999, the new Labour hero was Adams Oshiomhole of the Textile Garments and Tailoring Union.  He was a thorn in the flesh of the Obasanjo administration. He could talk, dance and make Communist-style speeches. He captured the public imagination. He would soon make a leap from being Labour leader into partisan politics. He became Governor of Edo State for two terms. He later became Chairman of Nigeria’s ruling party. He also became a Godfather of Nigerian politics. Something tells me every Labour leader after Oshiomhole wants to be like him. They too want to ride SUVs, and enjoy unfettered access to the seat of power. They also want to be Godfathers in Nigerian politics. The danger here is that this transmogrification of Labour Leadership in Nigeria, sighted first with Paschal Bafyau and raised to another level with Oshiomhole, created a new brand of Labour activism that contradicts norm, culture and tradition in the Nigerian Left. This new generation of opportunistic Labour leaders have devalued the heroism of the likes of Labour Leader No 1, Michael Imoudu, Herbert Macaulay, Eskor Toyo, Wahab Goodluck, the Sunmonu brothers and Frank Kokori. A compromised Labour leadership is a disgrace to the Revolution. I find no better exemplification than the current Labour Movement in Nigeria led by Comrade Aliyu Wabba, and the incompetent and hypocritical response to Labour issues in the country.     

In my view, the NLC and the TUC had no business calling out anybody on strike. When they reluctantly did so, they were playing politics and trying to appear concerned about workers’ welfare. This new set of Labour leaders don’t care about the people. They are partisan politicians. Civil society organizations continue to make the mistake that they are dealing with persons of like minds who want to interrogate issues and offer solutions. The truth is that the most conflicted community in Nigeria today is what we broadly describe for want of a better term as the “Nigerian Left”. They are just as worse as the conservatives and fascists; they claim to be defenders of the people’s interests whereas they are just interested in themselves. I am convinced that Nigeria’s Labour leaders knew as far back as 2012, that a subsidy regime either in the downstream or the electricity sector was unsustainable. They knew that getting Nigeria to work in an accountable manner was a useful national priority. They cannot claim ignorance of the inefficiency, leakages and wastages in the system that have, combined, cost Nigeria trillions of Naira. The Jonathan administration tried to address this in 2012. Organized Labour joined partisan politics and became an instrument. When their clients took over in 2015, and brought up the same issue, they kept quiet. When matters reached a head in 2016/2020, they were bound to be deceptive. And this is what they have done. The strike action that they promised on September 28 was never going to happen. It was unnecessary by the way. The so-called agreements that they reached to justify their hypocrisy sound ludicrous. The communique that Nigerians saw in the morning of September 28 is questionable. It may have been designed to help Labour save face, but it merely exposes a Labour leadership that should be a subject of ridicule. 

Three meetings were reportedly held – September 15, 24, 27, 2020. After the second meeting, Labour announced that it would go ahead with the nationwide strike because it had reached a deadlock with government. The NLC and the TUC ended up taking Nigerians for a ride. The Communique that eventually signaled the cancellation of the strike exposes their lack of rigour. The document says the Federal Government negotiators and Labour leaders agreed on a number of issues. Let’s examine a few. On the issue of the hike in electricity tariffs, the communique says the bipartite meeting has decided to set up an ad-hoc technical committee to re-examine electricity tariff reforms. This committee will sit for two weeks effective September 28. During that period, “DISCOs have been directed to suspend the application of the cost-reflective Electricity Tariff adjustments.”  This is a totally meaningless statement and it is surprising that someone like Joe Ajaero, a leader of the National Union of Electricity Employees, who was named as a member of the proposed Technical Committee was not awake enough to point out the problem with this proposal. There are technical questions.

In the first place, the current electricity tariffs are not cost-reflective, they are service-reflective. The new template by the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) creates a service-reflective template, problematic as it is, which ensures that houses, factories and businesses which consume more electricity within an A, B, C, D, range pay more than R1 band designated consumers at the lower end who still pay N4. 00 per unit, thus creating a cross-subsidy regime. The proposed two-week suspension of electricity tariff is also in every sense ambiguous. Is the FG saying the DISCOs should not bill any house, factory or business for two weeks? Is the President now going to ask the Ministry of Finance, the BPE, the NERC and other relevant agencies to re-adjust meters and return to the old tariffs for two weeks?  Did anyone represent the Vice President who oversees Privatization, the NERC, the BPE and the DISCOs at the meetings with Organized Labour? At best, the Federal Government team merely threw the two-week strategy at the unthinking Labour leaders just to buy time. Nothing will happen. 

The Federal Government says it intends to review the NERC Act and involve Labour in the electricity value chain. This is meaningless. The Federal Government, States, and Local Governments own 40% of DISCOs. Government can take part of its 40% to the Stock Exchange, but what will be the value of whatever it expropriates? It is a non-issue. The leaders of Organized Labour could not see through that trick. They were also told the National Labour Advisory Council (NLAC) will be inaugurated before the end of the year. And these greedy guys fell for it! If that Council remains moribund, what can they do? 

The other big issue was the deregulation of the downstream sector. Our Labour Leaders were told that the Federal Government will now fix Nigeria’s four petroleum refineries and that in fact the Port Harcourt refinery will be 50% completed by December 2021. They were told there will be timelines for delivery and even the national leadership of NUPENG and PENGASSAN will be appointed into a Steering Committee and a Validation team. The guys embraced this old, jaded lie as if they were being addressed by King Solomon. How many times have we been told that Nigeria’s refineries will be fixed? At a time, the FG wanted to privatize these same refineries. Labour leaders opposed the initiative. Today, most of them are struggling to have their children employed in a yet uncompleted Dangote Refinery and the modular refineries by Walter Smith, NIPCO and the Edo State Government.  They want the same private sector that they disparage for their own private benefits! 

Labour leaders were further told that the Federal Government will ensure the delivery of one million CNG/LPG Auto Gas conversion kits, storage skids and dispensing units by December 2021 under Nigeria’s Gas Expansion Programme. With the challenges of Corona Virus, this is not possible. To even order the equipment and the accessories, or to build the plant, not less than 18 months will be required.  Who is going to reshape the petrol stations?  Many of the old vehicles on Nigerian roads cannot also be converted. And even if so, who will bear the cost? We are told the Federal Government will provide 133 CNG/LPG transit buses. Nobody manufactures such buses in Nigeria. They will have to be imported. In other words, apart from taking care of the interest of Labour Leaders, the communique that ended the proposed strike of September 28, also very nicely, provided an opportunity for government officials to award contracts! There is also something in there about a 10% housing allocation for Nigerian workers. This is mere wishful thinking. Did anybody talk to Babatunde Fashola, SAN, the Minister of Works and Housing before making this commitment?     

They didn’t need to bother, of course, because both Labour and the Federal Government negotiators knew that they were both playing a game and taking Nigerians for a ride. Organized Labour, having obviously embraced deregulation and market forces, should have raised other questions that could be helpful to Nigerians as follows:  If the Federal Government is eliminating subsidy, what does it intend to do with its savings from the downstream sector and the electricity tariffs?  Can the savings be used to fund education and healthcare under a mutually agreed framework? Instead, Labour leaders were discussing buses and houses!  They could also have asked what the FG intends to do with savings in the electricity sector. Is it possible to use the savings to strengthen Transmission infrastructure? Instead, they were discussing how Labour leaders can become members of the Regulatory Board! 

The Government negotiators deserve our commendation. They have done a good job of preventing a “worthless” national embarrassment in the shape of a Labour strike in the same week that Nigeria celebrates its 60th Independence Anniversary They have also helped to expose the incompetence and hypocrisy of the current Labour leadership in Nigeria. They have also won an ideological war over the subsidy regime. Those Labour leaders who grumble about neo-liberalism have now embraced it. Their lack of rigour, clarity and intellect provides a strong case for an urgent reform of Labour Leadership in Nigeria. Once upon a time, Labour used to be a strong voice in this country. In those days, government controlled everything: Telcom, Banking, Insurance etc, It was quite easy then to blackmail government, and use that as a platform to become a national figure. The times are changing, indeed the times have changed. Labour must reinvent itself or risk the tragedy of becoming irrelevant. 

The pundits who had predicted the outcome and the nature of the Gubernatorial election in Edo State got it all wrong. The Edo 2020 election may well prove to be a turning point in the management of elections in Nigeria, and if not, there are certainly lessons to be learnt from it. It was in every sense a rude awakening for both the actors in the drama and the community of observers who witnessed and monitored the election. Pundits predicted that the election would end up as war, a do –or die affair and that there would be blood-letting in all the state’s three Senatorial Districts. That didn’t happen. An official of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was shot in Etsako Central LGA, another person was macheted and given a cut on the face. In Orhionmwon LGA, a person was killed. In Egor, Ovia South West, Ikpoba-Okha, Oredo LGAs there were reports of skirmishes involving vote buying, and physical assault, but on the whole, the election went on peacefully. There were fears that voters would stay away from the polling stations, out of fear and anxiety, for indeed, before election day, September 19, campaign rhetoric was febrile, hate speech dominated political talk. The people had every reason to be afraid. 

Still about 25.2% of registered voters ventured out to exercise their right of franchise. Out of a total of 2.210,534 million registered voters, about 483, 000 did not pick up their voters’ cards, leaving behind a total of 1.7 million accredited voters. Out of these, barely 537,407 voters took part in the exercise, just enough to cover the event with a toga of legitimacy. There were fears about the readiness of INEC for the election. It was an off cycle election. It was a COVID-19 season election. INEC promised that it was ready and that it would do a good job. The Commission didn’t do too badly after all. Unlike what obtained in the past, ad hoc staff got their allowances. Concerns about the late arrival of election materials and the failure of card readers in some local governments were promptly addressed. INEC had insisted that voters should observe COVID-19 protocols. Many voters wore face masks, quite alright, but INEC was totally incapable of enforcing physical and social distancing. That was a major minus. Nobody should be surprised if there is a sudden spike in COVID 19 cases in Edo state after this election. 

In past elections, across Nigeria, there were complaints about security agencies and their performance. We have witnessed spectacles of policemen, soldiers, and other security agents constituting themselves into a nuisance on election day and after, acting, as it were, on orders from above, in an absolutely partisan manner. In Edo State on September 19, the various security agencies tried their best to be neutral. Nobody reported the usual story of uniformed men snatching ballot boxes and helping the ruling party to thumbprint ballot papers. There were no disturbing reports of police brutality or accidental discharge by soldiers. In Kogi, in November 2019, the Nigeria Police deployed helicopters to intimidate the people. A prominent female politician was set ablaze, and till date the case rests in a cold file that may never be opened. On September 19 in Edo State, Nigerians witnessed a most unusual election. Political actors respected the restriction of movement order. For an election that was presaged by serious tension and anxiety, that was quite an achievement. 

As it turned out, incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki who had crossed from the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to enable him seek a second term in office after he was rejected by powerful forces in the APC, emerged victorious.  He scored 307, 955 votes and won with a margin of 84, 336. His main challenger, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) scored 223, 619 votes. There were 14 political parties in the September 19 election, but it was basically a two-way horse race between the PDP and the APC.  It was as if all the other 12 political parties did not exist. Their votes taken together did not quite amount to 10, 000. One of the gubernatorial candidates was said to have been at home in Lagos on election day. She didn’t even bother to show up in Edo State. Democracy allows all sorts. Nonetheless, history was made. Obaseki is the second Governor in Nigerian history to win election within the space of four years, back to back on two different political platforms: the APC in 2016 and the PDP in 2020. Before him, there was in this regard, Samuel Ortom, Governor of Benue State, who became Governor as an APC  candidate in 2015, and as a PDP candidate in 2019. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the Edo 2020 key challenger, will also be remembered as having lost Gubernatorial elections back to back on two different platforms: PDP in 2016, and APC in 2020. 

Governor Godwin Obaseki has every reason to enjoy the taste of his victory. He was incumbent Governor but he was the underdog in the 2020 election. He was abandoned by the APC, the same party that presented him as flag-bearer in 2016. He was not allowed to take part in the same party’s primaries on the grounds that his academic credentials are fake. The campaign against him was led by Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the same man he served as  economic strategist and who in 2016 sold him to the people of Edo State as the best thing since the invention of fluoride toothpaste. Oshiomhole did a 360-degree volte face and abandoned Obaseki. He turned 360 degrees and embraced Pastor Ize-Iyamu, the same man he condemned in 2016. Obaseki had other enemies: the absentee 14 lawmakers of Edo State -  Oshiomhole’s loyalists who wanted Obaseki out of office. There were other local gladiators, including all the major 2016 Godfathers who now chose to turn against him. Captain Hosa Okunbor, a prominent businessman and a major stakeholder in Edo State who had supported Obaseki in 2016, an otherwise self-effacing Captain Okunbor walked out of the closet and threatened to spend his “last kobo” to remove Obaseki and make Ize-Iyamu Governor.

 In the larger community, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, national leader of the APC sponsored a video on television in which he advised the people of Edo State to reject Obaseki. Asiwaju Tinubu is a powerful political figure and Godfather. In Edo state, he teamed up with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and others to throw Obaseki into the dustbin of history. His loyalists and godsons relocated to Edo State to join the Ize-Iyamu campaign. The national anti-Obaseki team was led by the Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Ganduje. I still can’t figure out how anyone would appoint such a controversial man as head of a campaign team. Locally, 42 members of the Obaseki administration resigned and abandoned him. Obaseki’s enemies had the Federal machinery behind them. They control the institutions and powers of the state. But today, they all have dust in their eyes. Obaseki, in a noteworthy re-affirmation of his name, won. God wins! What exactly happened?

Beyond the easy resort to a spiritual explanation and how man proposes and God disposes, or the omnipotence of the God factor, I think the result of the September 19, 2020 election in Edo State can be explained in 5 ways. Number one: the intervention of the United States and the United Kingdom on the eve of the election so to say, made a huge difference. The US issued a statement to say that it will impose and had already imposed restrictions on the visas of Nigerian politicians who committed electoral offences in the November 2019 elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states and who have behaved in similar fashion in the forthcoming Edo and Ondo Gubernatorial elections, on September 19 and October 10 respectively. The UK Mission in Nigeria followed suit by announcing similar measures with the addition that assets of Nigerian electoral offenders in the UK will be seized, and such persons will be prosecuted under international law. Thank you, US and UK. I am of the firm belief that the political actors who would otherwise have misbehaved in the Edo Gubernatorial election had to restrain themselves because of your intervention. They don’t want to be restricted. They don’t want to lose their visas. They need access to US and UK hospitals whenever they fall ill. They don’t want to be named and shamed. The Nigerian Government has complained about sovereignty and the right to fair hearing. I don’t know what that is all about. What we saw on September 19 was that there was no useless “order from above”. What we know is that the President of Nigeria was the first person to congratulate the re-elected Governor of Edo State.

Number two: the intervention of Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Captain Hosa Okunbor, and the desperate anti-Obaseki campaign launched by the APC ended up working in Obaseki’s  favour Equity may not favour the indolent but it often favours the underdog. The all-powerful APC machinery was so targeted at Obaseki that unwittingly, the APC scored an own goal against itself. Days before the election, the people of Edo state began to ask questions. Adams Oshiomhole as Governor in the same state had campaigned against the influence of Godfathers. He practically drove Chief Anthony Anenih of blessed memory out of town. In 2020, Oshiomhole found himself in fits of self-contradiction as he repudiated everything that he ever stood for. He spoke from every corner of the mouth. He apologized to the people and the chiefs of Edo that he made a mistake in 2016. Did they believe him? I don’t think so. The same man could show up in 2024 and tell fresh stories. Obaseki’s victory is an outright rejection of Oshiomhole’s brand of politics. The people of Edo also rejected Asiwaju Tinubu’s busy-body intervention. This in fact inspired Edo nationalism. The people proclaimed: “Edo no be Lagos”. “Obaseki no be Ambode”. To this extent, the Edo Gubernatorial election was a protest against Godfatherism and an affirmation of Edo nationalism. The Edo people rejected the idea that anyone at all could dictate to them. They stood by whatever mistake anyone thought they made in 2016.  Very instructive. 

Number three: Obaseki was helped further by the PDP machinery. The PDP cashed in on the failure of the APC in Edo state and took maximum advantage of it. The party which claims that Edo is a PDP state, simply grabbed a rejected Governor of the APC and offered him everything that he wanted: a golden offer that accommodated his Deputy. It was a deft political move. The PDP used Obaseki’s defection from the APC to strengthen its base in Edo State. It countered every negative move by the APC by deploying its own aggressive campaigners, led by Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers state. Others on the ground included the PDP members from Edo state who are members of the National Assembly and the local House of Assembly. Together, they deployed high-grade propaganda to shape public perception. The APC rejected Obaseki.  He found a new family. Big loss. 

Number five: Obaseki’s victory can also be linked to the politics of 2023. Unknown to many, some key figures in the APC worked for him. Edo became a battle ground for the Presidential politics of 2023. Those who do not want Oshiomhole and Bola Tinubu to determine the fortunes of the APC and Nigeria in 2023 moved in and checkmated the process. Realpolitik. 

The big take away in all of these is the prompt acknowledgement of Obaseki’s victory by President Muhammadu Buhari and his congratulatory message. Pastor Ize-Iyamu and the Edo branch of the APC have refused to congratulate Obaseki. They should take their cue from the President’s message who in this case, has done something that is quite uncharacteristic. Ize-Iyamu and his supporters claim they want to study the results. They are free to do so. But they should conduct themselves after the fashion of gentlemen and sportsmen. In the past, the APC got controversial rulings from the judiciary in election matters including the notorious case of Imo State where the Supreme Court elected a Governor from the Bench through dubious arithmetic. The judex should be careful. They need to read the press statements by the US and the UK.  They may be privileged but they are also not above international law!. 

President Muhammadu Buahri has advised Obaseki to be magnanimous in victory. He should take that to heart. Before the election, he had threatened to deal with Oshiomhole. He doesn’t need to deal with anyone. Oshiomhole banished the Godfathers that disturbed him from Edo State. He doesn’t need to be served a dose of his own medicine. Even those who promised to spend their last kobo on the September 19 election should be accommodated. Obaseki got a second term by defeating those who tried to play God in the affairs of Edo State. He himself must resist the temptation to act like God. The people of Edo State have reposed their confidence in him by giving him the opportunity of a second term in office. He must not betray their trust. He has promised to Make Edo Great Again. There are unresolved issues and uncompleted projects, and MOUs. He will be better off focusing on that. No man must play God. 

As for Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, let him be reminded that “except the Lord builds the House, they labour in vain that build it…” (Psalm 127: 1). Pick your phone, make that call and congratulate your brother, Godwin.  

It is now more than six months since Nigeria reported its index case of Corona Virus. On March 23, the country closed its airports to all international flights and commercial operations, for a month, in the first instance, with the exception of emergency and essential flights. Previously, in August 2019, the country had shut down its land borders in an attempt to check smuggling. With COVID-19, those borders remained closed. On March 30, 2020, at 11 pm, Nigeria began the first phase of its COVID lockdown - initially for a period of 14 days in Lagos and Ogun States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Gradually, the entire country was locked down. Inter-state movement was restricted. Curfew was imposed. Six months later, where are we? How safe are we as a people and as a country? What future challenges do we still need to worry about? What has been the impact of COVID-19 on our lives?

Today, as at the time of this writing, Nigeria has a total number of 56, 256 confirmed cases, 44, 152 discharged persons and 1, 082 deaths. These figures apparently do not reflect the true situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.  The situation is most likely to be worse, in part because Nigeria continues to struggle with testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases. After an initial problem with testing kits, reagents and the scarcity of basic medical infrastructure, Nigeria finally made its way to a point where, over the months, 35 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory could now boast of isolation and treatment centres. The number of laboratories also gradually increased. Nigeria can now test 15, 000 samples per day and so far over 400, 000 tests have been conducted. As a proportion of the country’s population of 200 million, that is a very small percentage indeed. Countries like Ghana, South Africa, Morocco, Senegal and Algeria have done much better. Part of the problem is that Nigerians are reluctant to embrace the option of voluntary testing even at government-owned centres where the test is free. Ordinarily, a COVID-19 test in Nigeria is about N54, 500. Treatment is expensive and definitely out of the reach of the poor who prefer alternative options: resort to magic, spiritualism or an unproven conviction that the virus only affects the rich and privileged. 

 the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. ... COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy

These are some of the reasons why the reported data may not be exact. Nor is the data on COVID-19 exact anywhere in the world due to differences in national capacity and tracking systems. In that wise, even the reported global figures of over 29 million cases, 929, 263 deaths, and over 21 million recoveries can be subjected to further questioning. Compared to other parts of the world however, African countries have done relatively well, with perhaps the exception of South Africa which has the highest number of cases, and which by the way, has conducted more COVID-19 tests than any other country in the continent. Africa doing well, can be explained on only one ground: the prediction that Africa would be worst hit by the pandemic has not come to pass. Ms Melinda Gates had much earlier in the year expressed the concern that African countries could end up like Ecuador with COVID-19 corpses littering the streets, overcrowded hospitals and cemeteries and a public health emergency that would overwhelm the continent. This has not happened. Scientists are therefore left with a puzzle:  Why is the virus more devastating in some parts of the world, and yet so mild elsewhere? Is there a genetic or zoonotic explanation for this? Or could it be that the worst is yet to occur in Africa where health infrastructure is poor, and the leaders listen more to prayer warriors and shamanists and treat scientists with disdain?  

Six months later in Nigeria, life has more or less returned to normal.  By May 4, the Federal Government announced a gradual and phased easing of lockdown measures.  A second phase was soon announced on June 29, for a period of 4 weeks. On July 27, this was further extended. By the end of August, Nigeria was back on its feet. Now, places of religious worship have re-opened. Schools also. Government advisers insist that the country needs to strike a balance between protecting lives and livelihoods and getting the people back to work, given the negative impact of the lockdown and restrictions in virtually every sector of the economy. For the most part, Nigeria simply adopted the COVID-19 guidelines and protocols recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the African Centre for Disease Control. The only problem that I have seen is that as the country re-opens, our people are now behaving as if indeed COVID-19 is gone. Widespread fear greeted the initial report of the pandemic. Panic followed. Nigerians no longer seem to worry. 

In Lagos, which for months was the epicentre of the pandemic, and still the state with the majority of cases, the people no longer wear face masks. They have bluntly refused to take responsibility. Commuter buses are routinely filled to capacity. Stores, supermarkets, banks and offices still insist on the “No Mask, No Entry” policy but really, nobody is afraid anymore. In the rural parts of the country, it is as if there was never anything called COVID-19: the deadly virus. Go across the country. People now shake hands. Hug each other.  Hold parties. Eat from the same plate. Politicians are beginning to criss-cross the country, and they are not showing good example. In states where there are scheduled elections, and campaigns are on-going, nobody observes any form of physical distancing.  I asked a prominent politician why he does not consider it necessary to insist on COVID-19 protocols during his campaign rallies. He confessed that it would be difficult to do that in politics.  People are just tired. COVID-19 fatigue may in the long run prove to be worse than the virus itself. Meanwhile, no flattening of the curve has been observed. 

There is need for caution, and perhaps this is where efforts need to be concentrated going forward. Nigerians and other Africans may just have been lucky so far with COVID-19. Nonetheless, it is better to learn from other countries and not assume that we are entitled to some form of scientific or divine immunity. As Nigeria fully re-opens, the government should not rule out the possibility of ordering a fresh lockdown in parts of the country should there be a sudden surge in infections. 

Today, many countries that opted for the lifting of the lockdown are now introducing stricter measures as they experience a second wave of the virus - as in India, Israel, France, Austria, South Korea, Germany, or a third wave - as in Hong Kong. For example, when Israel which had proven capable of containing the virus in March, chose to re-open its schools in May, its COVID-19 infection rates escalated rapidly to become one of the world’s highest per-capita rates. Israel had to shut down schools immediately and reintroduced stricter measures. Five times, in the course of the pandemic, South Korea tried to reopen its schools. When it eventually did so in May, it shut down the schools again within days after a sudden spike in cases.  Uruguay and Japan have done much better with the easing of lockdowns. But not Italy, which has now chosen to re-open its schools despite the rise in infections. 

The UK is another useful example. Faced with a sharp rise in the R-Number (that is the rate at which infection spreads from one person to others), the UK has locked down some communities. It has further introduced “the Rule of Six” which forbids the gathering of more than six persons. This rule does not exempt children under 12 in England, but it exempts children under 11 and 12 in Wales and Scotland respectively. The UK has also introduced COVID Marshals who are empowered to break up any group of more than six. Violators are liable to a fine of 100 pounds per member, and double fines for repeated offences up to 3, 200 pounds.  Neighbours are also required to report any suspected breaches to the authorities. What the UK has done is to remind the people that the troubles of COVID-19 are far from over; every one must take responsibility. We need similar measures here in Nigeria. We need COVID-19 Marshals. Gatherings should be restricted. People should be made to pay fines for failing to wear masks or observe social distancing. This is probably the only way to remind Nigerians that the war against COVID-19 has not yet been won. The COVID-19 Marshals can be volunteers who will liaise with the police and relevant authorities.  Now that the schools are re-opening and international flights have resumed, there is greater need for vigilance.  

One key thing government needs to deal with: the misconception that there is already a cure for COVID-19. The other day, a Professor, a man I respect a lot, told me that there is now in Nigerian markets a COVID-19 vaccine, which is approved for sale only in Africa. I told him this is not possible because the known fact is that there is no approved COVID-19 vaccine anywhere in the world yet. What we have is a global race for the vaccine with over 100 possible vaccines still undergoing various stages of clinical trials. He was adamant. He said he was sure of his information. He asked me not to listen to international politics about COVID-19. I was stunned.  I wanted to ask him to show me a picture of the said vaccine or provide more concrete evidence. I didn’t want to appear rude. I kept quiet. But if indeed some Nigerians are promoting a COVID-19 vaccine, unknown to the authorities, that would be very sad indeed. Even the smartest scientists in the world are still busy trying to understand the virus.  It could take years or months before they can record a breakthrough. Last week, AstraZeneca, the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company collaborating with researchers at the University of Oxford, had to suspend its drug trials when a volunteer who had taken a dose of the experimental vaccine reported severe side effects. The trials have now re-commenced after that deliberate pause. The gold standard in vaccine trials and authorization is safety. Nigeria must ensure that nobody smuggles fake COVID-19 vaccines or drugs into the country. Low-income, developing countries face multiple jeopardy in the face of COVID-19. The main leadership challenge is to protect the people from themselves.  

More than anything else, COVID-19, six months later, has exposed our vulnerabilities as a country and as a people. Nigerians have often paid lip service to the need to diversify the country’s economy away from over-dependence on petroleum resources which account for the bulk of the country’s revenue. With the distortions in global demand and supply, caused by COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions, and lower demand for crude, Nigeria suffered a revenue crisis. Pre-COVID, the country’s economy was weak. COVID worsened everything. Nigeria had to revise its 2020 budget twice. We also had to go a-borrowing, cap in hand. The country’s CPI (inflation) rose up to 12.82%. Unemployment figures shot through the roof. By Q3 2020, Nigeria will be in recession, a second time in 5 years. There are projections inflation could hit 14% plus by December 2020. There has been so much talk about recovery by 2022, but nobody is certain about the nature of that recovery: V, W, U, or L–shaped. 

Even with the best of intentions, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has not been able to save the Naira or resolve liquidity problems. The government has been very eloquent about what it can do for the people: palliatives, stimulus packages, economic sustainability programmes. intervention funds but official policies have been at best ambivalent. The recent removal of fuel subsidy, and the hike in electricity tariffs have both further eroded the average Nigerian’s purchasing power. Questions have therefore been raised about leadership and policy choices. Consider this:  In other parts of the world, governments have duly acknowledged in the face of the pandemic, the heroism of frontline healthcare workers and first responders. Here in Nigeria, amid COVID-19 pandemic, health workers have in the last six months declared industrial actions against states and the Federal Government. They are unhappy that government does not consider it necessary to pay them salary arrears and COVID-19 hazard allowance. Only two states- Nasarawa and Enugu-  have reportedly paid up to date. Last week, the National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD) went on strike. The doctors had to be mollified. This week, the Joint Health Workers Union of Nigeria (JOHESU) also embarked on strike over non-payment of COVID-19 allowances. Why pick fights with medical doctors and other frontline care providers in the middle of a global health crisis? Why downplay the crisis of hunger and poverty in the land? 

It is not all gloom though. ThisDay newspaper recently published a list of heroes and amazons of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The list includes institutions, private sector figures, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, medical practitioners, and others who have contributed in cash and in kind and worked hard to manage the spread of the virus. When all this is over, it would be necessary to also compile a list of COVID-19 villains. I am keeping notes.