Nigeria has become less stable in the past year and can now be categorised as ‘vulnerable’ based on an instability risk index, according to a new report.

SBM Intelligence, a pan-African think tank, ranked Nigeria as a ‘vulnerable’ country and one of the “biggest losers” in sub-Saharan Africa on its instability risk index. This was disclosed in its recent Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI) which assesses the political, economic and social factors frustrating stability in African countries.

The report spotlighted 48 West, Central, East and Southern African countries. These countries, according to the report, “were grouped by region as delineated by the African Development Bank.”

However, the think tank explained that North Africa was “exempted because of the sub-Saharan focus of this study.”

Although Mauritania and Western Sahara are mapped to West Africa, they were exempted from the study due to what the SBM Intelligence described as “a paucity of data, geopolitical considerations and a cultural and economic affinity with North Africa.”

The report sheds light on three key factors — history, economy, and geopolitics, as well as leadership and governance — and how they contribute to political instability in these countries.

It also evaluates the stability of the 48 African countries by considering indices like ethnic tensions, coup history, dominant ethnic groups, food security, poverty rate, debt sustainability, conflict and vulnerability, and economic diversity.

Countries are therefore categorised into six levels of stability — Red Watch, Critical, Warning, Vulnerable, Stable, and Safe.

The firm explained that a higher score indicates a higher level of political risk to business. According to it, a country that scores 70 and above is categorised under Red Watch.

Countries that scored between 60 and 69 are categorised as critical while those that score between 50 and 59 are placed under warning. Countries like Nigeria that scored between 40 and 45 are marked as vulnerable. Those that scored between 30 and 39 are marked stable while those that scored below 30 are marked safe.

“A lower score shows how stable a country is, while a higher one tells the opposite,” the firm noted.

‘Biggest losers, biggest gainers’

Countries like Botswana, Seychelles, Namibia and Zimbabwe joined Nigeria to earn the title of biggest losers.

Analysis by SBM Intelligence showed that Nigeria’s instability worsened as it ranked 45th this year, unlike the previous year when it ranked 39th and was marked “stable.”

This deterioration could be blamed on unfavourable government policies that weakened the country’s currency and eventually forced some big investors out of Nigeria.

It would be recalled that some multinational companies, including Kimberley-Clark, Procter & Gamble (P&G), GlaxoSmithKline Consumer (GSK) Nigeria, Equinor, Sanofi and Bolt Food, recently withdrew from the Nigerian market.

The exit was attributed to various challenges, such as foreign exchange shortages, rising energy costs, and declining consumer purchasing power amid high inflation.

“Botswana experienced a GDP decline of nearly 2% in the first quarter of 2024, and Zimbabwe experienced economic challenges such as debt and currency crises,” SBM Intelligence says, adding: “Nigeria, Africa’s fourth largest economy, ended the year with a score change of -6, following the exit of foreign businesses over weaker currency, rising inflation and other economic challenges.”

Meanwhile, five countries were crowned the “biggest gainers.” They include Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar.

“A cutback on governance costs drove Angola’s performance, while Madagascar’s GDP growth improved to 4.4 per cent in 2023 from 4.3 per cent in 2022,” the think-tank noted.

Regional perspective

The report indicates that Central African countries had the most representation in the top ten, with four countries present: Angola, Central African Republic, Chad, and Gabon.

West Africa followed closely in the top ten with three countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

“The regions with the lowest representations are East Africa, with 20% represented by Burundi and Madagascar, and Southern Africa, at 10%, with Eswatini as its sole representative. The worst-performing entities are shared by Eastern and Southern Africa, at 40% each–represented by countries such as Seychelles, Kenya, Mauritius, and Comoros on the East side and Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Zambia on the South,” the report noted.

However, Southern Africa retained its spot as the most stable region for the second year with a score change of -1.3, the report disclosed, noting that “Central Africa was the least stable, ending the year with a score change of 6.78, performing worse than East (1.07) and West (2.47). This performance can be explained by an improvement in South Africa’s economy, which grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024 from 0.1% in the first quarter.”

While the raging conflict between the Rwanda-backed M-23 militia and Congo “contributed to the relatively poor performance in Central and East Africa”, attempted coups and Islamist insurgencies “contributed to West Africa’s poor outing.”

The Federal University Gusau (FUGUS) in Zamfara state says Bernard Odoh, former vice-chancellor of the Nnamdi Azikiwe University (UNIZIK) in Anambra, fraudulently obtained his professorship.

BACKGROUND

On Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu dissolved UNIZIK’s governing council and sacked the institution’s vice-chancellor and registrar.

Odoh was described as “unqualified” for the role of vice-chancellor of the university, in a statement issued by Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on information and strategy.

“The sacking of the governing council and officials followed reports that the council illegally appointed an unqualified vice-chancellor without following due process,” the statement reads.

“After the controversial appointment, the Federal Government stepped in to address tensions between the university’s Senate and the governing council of the 33-year-old institution.

“The government expressed concern over the council’s apparent disregard for the university’s governing laws in its selection process.”

ODOH FIGHTS BACK

However, in an interview with Arise Television on Thursday, Odoh said the president erred by firing him.

He added that since his appointment as vice-chancellor was not made through a press release, he cannot be removed through one.

The embattled don said he was qualified for the position of vice-chancellor of UNIZIK ab initio. He added that his appointment followed due process.

Odoh said the case against his appointment is before a federal high court and industrial courts.

He added that Tinubu and Tunji Alausa, education minister, should have waited for the verdict of the courts before booting him out.

Odoh said by leaving the university without a vice-chancellor, governing council and registrar, Tinubu has fomented crisis in UNIZIK.

The embattled university don added that two of the assessors, and a registrar from FUGUS who deposed to an affidavit on his professorship, are still alive and can back his claims.

‘PRODUCTS OF ADMINISTRATIVE FRAUD’

In a statement on Thursday, Yakubu Anivbassa, FUGUS registrar, said the documents referenced by Odoh were “products of administrative fraud”.

The FUGUS management said Odoh “was never a staff member of the university” and his claims are “tissues of lies and misinformation”.

“The Federal University Gusau hereby states in clear and unambiguous terms that the so called letters of offer of tenure of appointment as Professor and confirmation of promotion to the post of Professor, dated 30th April 2015 and 12th November 2015, being paraded by Dr Bernard Odoh are null and void,” the statement reads.

“The documents being paraded by Dr. Odoh Bernard Ifeanyi and purported to be certified true copies hurriedly endorsed by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, former Registrar of the Federal University, dated November 8, 2024, six solid years after the latter left the services of the Federal University Gusau, are products of administrative fraud orchestrated by Dr. Odoh.

“Dr Odoh working in cahoots with the former Vice Chancellor of the University and the Registrar, as there is no official record of Dr. Odoh’s employment in the custody of the University.

“Further proof of the desperation to perpetuate such illegality is the impersonation and usurpation of the duties of the current Registrar of the University by the former Registrar, Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, who procured a fake stamp to certify Dr. Odoh’s equally fake employment documents as true copies on November 8, 2024, six years after his disengagement from the university.

“Dr. Odoh Bernard Ifeanyi is not and has never been a tenure staff of the university, let alone being confirmed as a professor by the institution.

“Whatever claim to the contrary by Dr. Odoh is nothing but the antics of a drowning man who is hell-bent on using the good name of the Federal University Gusau, to give vent to his desperate ambition to become the Vice Chancellor of the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, through subterfuge.”

The registrar said certification of public documents is guided by the Evidence Act 2011, adding that requirements include payment of fees and a certified true copy.

Anivbassa added that the document must be sealed, dated and signed by the officer responsible for issuing the document with his name and title of his office.

“A careful perusal of the above requirements and their juxtaposition against the certification of Dr. Odoh’s documents by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, clearly shows that the so called certified true copies fell short of the provisions of Section 104 of the Evidence Act, 2011 and are therefore, not legally tenable,” he said.

Anivbassa said Bawa, having left FUGUS as a registrar in 2018, has “no locus” to certify university documents.

“Therefore, the so-called certified true copies of Dr. Odoh’s documents relating to his alleged employment as endorsed by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura on November 8, 2024, are illegal, criminal, null and void and of no effect whatsoever,” the statement added.

The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has announced that Nigerians will need to pay for the newly introduced multipurpose national identity cards due to limited government revenue.

Peter Iwegbu, head of card management services at NIMC, disclosed this during a two-day press conference in Lagos on Thursday.

He explained that the payment model aims to ensure that only those who genuinely need the cards will apply for them, avoiding the inefficiencies of past initiatives where physical cards were issued for free but largely uncollected.

Iwegbu emphasized that introducing a paid model would streamline production and distribution, ensuring better management of resources.

The new multipurpose ID cards are expected to serve various functions, including identification, financial transactions, and accessing government services.

Iwegbu said, “Before we stopped due to funding, we produced more than two million cards but a lot of them are still in our office, people were not able to pick them up because they didn’t need it.”

Aside from low collection, Iwegbu said the government could not fund the production of ID cards due to limited revenue.

“The government’s limited revenue is also a major factor in the decision to make Nigerians pay for the new ID card,” he added.

He said NIMC is also working with banks across the country, which will make it possible for people to walk into any bank closest to them and request the card.

Also speaking, Lanre Yusuf, director of information technology at NIMC, said the idea of a free national ID card did not turn out well in the past.

Yusuf described the new ID card as a post-paid identity card, which means that individuals must need the card before initiating a request for it.

The director said, “To get the new national ID card, Nigerians will need to make a payment, select a pickup location, and then collect their card from the chosen location.

“The government has implemented programmes to make the card accessible to the less privileged Nigerians who cannot afford it but require it to access government support.

“This initiative demonstrates the government’s commitment to inclusivity and equality.”

Yusuf also said the multipurpose ID cards are expected to launch soon, with sample test cards already received.

“The new national ID card is a multipurpose card that can serve the purpose of identity verification, payments, and even government services,” he said.

Notorious armed bandit leader Jiya Turji has reportedly received a ransom payment of ₦6 million from residents of Sardauna village in Sabon Birni Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

This was disclosed on Friday by counterterrorism and insurgency expert Zagazola Makama in a post on his X handle.

Makama revealed, citing intelligence sources, that the villagers paid the ransom to secure the release of five community members abducted by Turji’s gang during an earlier attack.

“The ransom negotiations were intense, with the bandits initially demanding a much higher sum before agreeing to settle for ₦6 million,” Makama said, quoting locals.

The five abductees were reportedly freed after the payment was made, though the incident has heightened fears among residents of Sabon Birni over recurring attacks by Turji’s gang.

“The victims, who have been in captivity for several weeks, were reportedly freed after the payment was made,” he added.

Local leaders have repeatedly called on security agencies to intensify efforts to curb banditry in the region, which has seen an alarming rise in kidnappings, extortion, and violent attacks.

As of press time, neither the Sokoto State Government nor security agencies have commented on the ransom payment. The incident underscores the ongoing challenges in combating insecurity in Northern Nigeria.

All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, Jesutega Onokpasa, has called on President Bola Tinubu, to cancel the appointment of Daniel Bwala, a former campaign director to the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar.

Recall that Daniel Bwala  was recently appointed Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, was on Monday night redesignated as Special Adviser on Policy Communication.

In an interview on Arise TV, Onokpasa said some of Tinubu’s supporters have claimed that Bwala’s appointment was a strategy, but he thinks it is ‘stupidity’.

According to him, Bwala’s appointment hurts, noting that Tinubu’s failure to revoke the appointment will lead to his defeat in the 2027 presidential election.

He said, “The manner in which President Bola Tinubu stabbed his supporters in the back is absolutely ridiculous, meaningless and inexplicable appointment. I am a Tinubu supporter and not a sycophant; his apologists are calling his appointment of Bwala strategy, but I think it is stupidity.

“We won this election with the lowest margin since 1999. Every other president has won with more than 50 percent of the votes but we won with less than 40 percent. How do you call a president a drug dealer, Bwala is a lawyer. He had no evidence, he called Tinubu a drug baron. How do the president now appoint such a person? No everyone is interested in getting appointment.

“I am only bothered about the insults from Bwala. Tinubu seemed to take us for granted, he does not feed us, I have never gone to Tinubu’s house to seek for anything, there are do who do that not everyone. I just like the President like he is a family member, that is why, it really hurt me, he thinks he can behave anyhow, just stab us in the back, I don’t trust him anymore.

Bwala helped Atiku Abubakar to fail in 2023 and he would help Tinubu to fail in 2027. The President has the right to hire who he wants, and we have the right to rire a President. Tinubu has to rescind his appointment of Daniel Bwala. He has to respect us in the APC. “

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has directed electricity distribution companies to immediately downgrade customers in the Band A category if they fail to provide the promised 20 hours of electricity supply.

The Commissioner of Licensing and Legal for NERC, Dafe Apkeneye, stated this on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Friday.

He said, “If the Discos cannot meet the promised 20 hours to Band A customers, the customers are to immediately be downgraded to the level for which the discos can meet supplies.

“With regards to the migration order, it is not elective to the instance of the customer. The disco needs to make an application and ensure that they can supply power to customers in Band A.

“If Discos can’t supply such customers, the discos have to downgrade such customers to meet what they can provide.

“The distribution can distribute what is only available on the grid. So when there is no supply to the grid, the Discos can’t meet those supply commitments.

“But the grid has been resolved, and we hope supply can improve, and when they can’t, the Discos have to downgrade such customers.”

With regards to NERC transferring regulatory oversight to states, Apkeneye said states have been empowered by the constitution to generate, transmit, and distribute power.

“States can now establish electricity markets and regulate them by the Nigerian constitution. States now have powers for electricity generation, transmission, and distribution within the states without restrictions.

“We should bear in mind that Nigeria is a country of laws. The Nigerian law states that the states have the power to establish and regulate electricity markets. The states also now have exclusive powers over distribution as seen in the concurrent list.

“With the states having such powers, it is of the states to exercise. Every Nigerian comes from a state. The states have the capacity, and as we speak, the team from Oyo State has issued us a notice, and they are currently spending a week in the commission, understudying what we do. Before coming to the commission, they have been to Ghana. They have also had an intensive 11-week training session with an international regulatory body. So the states are going to build capacity, learn and grow,” he said.

On customers seeking redress on complaints, NERC said the commission has a customer protection regulation which we consolidated and codified last year, to protect customers.

“Before a customer can have their complaints addressed by NERC, they first have to lodge a complaint at the Discos. If the Disco doesn’t respond at a specific time, you can now approach a small mediatory group called the consumer forum of NERC for redress.

“The complaint process has gone on well. We have seen situations where complaints don’t get resolved by the discos and get escalated to NERC and they get resolved. We always ensure that customers get a fair resolution.

“Where a customer has been overbilled, they get fair redress. But when customers bypass meters, we also make sure the case gets addressed appropriately,” he said.

A chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bode George, has appealed to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Nyesom Wike, to end his loggerheads with the Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara.

Naija News reports that Bode George, while addressing journalists at a news conference in Lagos on Thursday to mark his 79th birthday, slammed members and leaders of the party for refusing to call Wike to order.

According to him, Wike cannot be in Abuja and control Rivers State, stressing that Fubara will not become a ‘slave’ because the Minister contributed to his emergence as state governor.

George also questioned the leadership of the party on why Wike had not been sanctioned for instigating crisis in PDP, adding that nobody is bigger than the political party or should be allowed to hold the party to ransom.

He said, “May I ask those at the helm of affairs of our party today, what exactly is the offense of Governor Fubara of Rivers State?

“What exactly is going on that party members don’t feel bothered about the happenings in the state. Governor Wike helped Fubara to become the number one citizen of the oil-bearing state.

“The governor himself acknowledged this on many occasions. Will the governor now behave like a slave? Why are some party members encouraging his predecessor to bring down the state?

“He lives in Abuja and wants to control what goes on in Rivers State…. did the governors before him behave this way? This cannot continue like this. Why can’t we learn from our past mistakes?

“Why can’t we tell all this trouble makers to go and sit down if we want this party to move forward. The other day, Wike boasted openly, threatening Governors saying ‘I’ll put fire in your states’ but the APC Government he’s working for refused to sanction him.

“Why can’t PDP sanction him? … instead of instigating crisis in our party, why are they not courageous enough to defect to the APC? If they fear God at all. Nobody is big enough to hold the party to ransom. My advice to Wike is very simple: you are my son, a political son.

“I am appealing to him to cool off immediately. I know he was injured by friends during the last PDP Presidential contest. Take it easy. Nobody is bigger than any party. Forget what happened in the past. Let us work together for the interest of our political party.”

Nigerian Afrobeats superstar, David Adeleke, better known as Davido, has warned black Americans about the growing interest in relocating to Africa.

Naija News reports that Davido, during an interview on ‘The Big Homies House’ podcast, expressed scepticism about the trend, citing the current challenges facing the continent, particularly in his home country, Nigeria.

Responding to the show host’s question about black Americans seeking to return to the motherland, Davido responded, “Leave America and go where?”

He stressed the economic difficulties and systemic issues affecting African countries.

Speaking further from experience as someone raised in Nigeria after being born in Atlanta, Georgia, the singer added, “It’s not cool back home…The economy now is in shambles.”

Watch the video below:

The National Economic Council (NEC) has resolved to reinforce the implementation of the National Electrification Strategy in a bid to end the collapse of the nation’s power grid.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, chairman of NEC, told members of the Council that access to energy is a fundamental right and not a privilege because electricity is the oxygen of economic growth.

The Council has constituted a committee on National Electrification to help address the challenges in the power sector.

The committee’s formation was among decisions NEC took at the end of its 146th meeting on Thursday chaired by Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Council Chambers of the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

The committee headed by Cross River State Governor, Bassey Otu, is to work towards deepening states’ engagements within the Electricity Reform Act 2023 and the National Electrification Strategy and Implementation Plan.

Following a presentation by the Managing Director of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), NEC observed that Nigeria needs a reformed and diversified electricity system, noting that by empowering states, accessibility and affordability of electricity can be enabled, ensuring that all regions effectively meet their specific energy needs.

Members of the committee include Governors Dikko Radda of Katsina, Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe, Ademola Adeleke of Osun, Hope Uzodimma of Imo, and Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau.

Others are Ministers of Finance, Mr Wale Edun; Budget and Economic Planning, Sen. Atiku Bagudu; Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu; Special Adviser to the President on NEC and Climate Change; Special Adviser to the President on Power; Managing Director, Rural Electrification Agency (REA), and Managing Director, Niger Delta Power Holding Company.

Shettima outlined issues before the Council that require urgent attention including energy infrastructure, human capital development, creative industries, fiscal strategy, industrial innovation, and long-term development planning, describing them as foundational to the transformation Nigeria needs.

He explained that it is for this that experts and stakeholders from some of the critical sectors have been invited to share their insights and contributions.

“The past few months of collapses in our national power grid compel us to reinforce the pace with which we are adopting and implementing the National Electrification Strategy. Energy access is a fundamental right, not a privilege. It is the oxygen of economic growth.

“Our blueprints must, therefore, strive to expand access, empower rural communities, and drive productivity, especially for MSMEs. I hope that our discussions today will inspire solutions to light up homes, power businesses, and fuel Nigeria’s industrial future.

“Whatever path we agree upon, it is clear that a private-sector-led distributed renewable energy generation approach is essential to increasing electricity access for households and small enterprises alike,” he said.

The Vice President also urged the Council to take Nigeria’s creative industry seriously, saying it presents an avenue to redefine the nation’s economic trajectory.

According to him, “new technologies have not only amplified the global appeal of our arts, crafts, and culture but also opened up revenue streams and job opportunities for Nigerians.

“Our music, films, art, and cultural heritage are not just global symbols of Nigeria’s soft power but also vital engines of economic growth. We cannot afford to relegate the promise of turning creativity into wealth, empowering our youth, and positioning Nigeria as a hub of innovation and cultural excellence,” he added.

Meanwhile, the position of states on state police will be ready by the next NEC meeting.

Deliberating on the updated submission on the establishment of state police, Council mandated states that were yet to make their submissions on the subject matter should comply within the next one week to enable NEC to come up with a unanimous position on state police at the next meeting.