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[OPINION] Rising Ethnic Tension Between Hausa and Fulani - Farooq A. Kperogi
The cultural and ethnic melding of Northern Nigeria’s Hausa and the Fulani people is so deep, so labyrinthine, so time-honored, and so unexampled that a fictitious ethnic category called the “Hausa-Fulani” was invented by Nigeria’s southern press to describe the emergent ethnic alchemy it has produced.
Northern intellectuals resented the label at first. For example, the late Dr. Yusufu Bala Usman, the famously iconoclastic professor of history at the Ahmadu Bello University who was ethnically Fulani and who was the scion of the Katsina and Kano royal families, condemned the hyphenation of Hausa and Fulani as both ill-willed and ignorant.
But several Northern Nigerian elites of Hausa and Fulani filiation have now enthusiastically embraced it. President Muhammadu Buhari, for instance, told the Weekly Trust in 1999 that he loved the hyphenated Hausa-Fulani identity that the southern press invented because it encapsulates the complexity of his own identity. His father is Fulani while his mother is half Kanuri and half Hausa.
More than that, though, Buhari is culturally and linguistically Hausa. Like most people in Nigeria’s northwest who trace patrilineal bloodline to the Fulani (including most of the emirs), he doesn’t speak a lick of Fulfulde (as the language of the Fulani is called in Nigeria) and is completely divorced from the culture of the “unmingled” Fulani who now live mostly in Nigeria’s northeast and in the bushes elsewhere in the country.
Over the years, the northern political elite not only used the common Islamic heritage of the Hausa and the Fulani people as an instrument to construct and cement the notion of an undivided and indivisible Hausa-Fulani identity, they also encouraged other parts of the country to see them as one, undifferentiated people.
In time, the rest of the country came to regard the Hausa and the Fulani as indistinguishable. A popular quip among the Yoruba says, “Gambari pa Fulani ko lejo ninu,” which roughly translates as “If a Hausa person kills a Fulani person, there is no case,” implying that the Hausa and the Fulani are homogenous people whose internal strife are no more than evanescent, resolvable sibling squabble.
But the emergence and unabating intensification of kidnapping for ransom and other forms of rural and urban banditry in the Northwest where most of the villains are Fulani and most of the victims are Hausa are rupturing the centuries-old ethnic harmony between the Hausa and the Fulani that Nigerians had taken for granted.
In response to the rural and urban banditry by mostly Fulani brigands against Hausa people, Hausa people have formed vigilante groups called yan sakai or yan banga for self-defense, but Fulani people say the yan banga self-defense groups often indiscriminately murder innocent Fulani people who are not even remotely connected with abductions and murders.
This has provoked an endless cycle of recriminations and retaliatory violence between Hausa and Fulani people and is threatening the age-old, Islam-inspired ethnic fusion between them.
This has been going on for years under the radar of the national and international media until BBC’s BBC Africa Eye brought it to the forefront of global attention in its Jul 24, 2022, documentary titled “The Bandit Warlords of Zamfara.” The documentary showed that although the Hausa and the Fulani share a common culture, religion, heritage, and language, they are, for the most part, divided and rarely mix in rural areas. They fight over land, water, and food.
Self-confessed Fulani bandits told the BBC that Hausa people enjoy preferential treatments in government jobs, that Fulani people face discrimination in the formal sector in northern Nigeria, and that kidnapping, banditry, and indiscriminate mass murders were the only way they could call attention to their neglect.
Following the documentary, which so unsettled the Nigerian government that local TV stations that rebroadcast it were fined, there has been an open discussion, particularly in Arewa social media circles, of hitherto culturally taboo subjects such as whether Usman Dan Fodio whose jihad inaugurated the current Fulani ruling families in much of Muslim northern Nigeria was a Hausa-hating Fulani ethnic supremacist.
Islam had been centuries old and already deeply entrenched in Hausa land before Usman Dan Fodio’s nineteenth-century jihad, which many historians have called a “Fulani war.” The well-regarded seventeenth-century Songhai Muslim scholar by the name of Ahmad Baba, for instance, had recognized Hausa land as a bastion of Islam.
In a 1613 essay titled, “Al-kashf wa-l-bayān li-aṣnāfmajlūb al-Sūdān” (translated into English as “The Exposition and Explanation Concerning the Varieties of Transported Black Africans”), he wrote that “the people of Kano, some of Zakzak [Zaria], the people of Katsina, the people of Gobir, and all of the Songhay” lived under ideal Islamic rule and could never be enslaved by other Muslims.
About 200 years later, when Dan Fodio decided to “reform” the Islam he met in Hausa land, he repudiated the Islam that the Hausa people had practiced. In his 1806 treatise titled "Bayan Wujub Al-Hijra, Ala L-Ibad,” Dan Fodio rebutted Ahmad Baba’s thesis by asserting that what was true of Hausa land when Ahmad Baba wrote, “might not necessarily be true at all other times, since every scholar relates what he sees in his own days.” Dan Fodio’s son, Muhammad Bello, also wrote Infaq al-mansur in 1813, exactly 200 years after Ahmad Baba, and contested the notion that Hausa land was ruled by Islamic precepts.
Now, in everyday dialogic engagements on social media, in the marketplace, and in the streets, Hausa and Fulani people are openly talking about the jihad and its decidedly ethnic character. Hausa people are asking why all the emirs that emerged from the jihad, except for that of Bauchi, were Fulani. (Emirs in Borgu in Kwara and Niger states are not the product of the jihad and are not Fulani.)
These questions are especially important because the Fulani emirs who dislodged Hausa Muslim rulers have been doing exactly what the Hausa Muslim rulers were accused of by Fulani jihadists—keeping multiple wives and concubines, oppressing everyday folks called the talakawa, believing and partaking in fortunetelling, etc. Besides, in Islam, leadership isn’t hereditary, so Hausa people are asking why a supposedly Islamic jihad has entrenched Fulani ethnic monarchies to the exclusion of the native Hausa populations.
These debates aren’t new, of course. For example, in a June 30, 2000, article titled “The Fulani Factor in Nigerian Politics” published in the Weekly Trust, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (who later became the emir of Kano on June 8, 2014, and was dethroned on March 9, 2020) caused a stir among not just other Nigerians but also among Hausa people when he said although the Fulani in northern Nigeria have lost their language and culture to the Hausa, they still cherish the irreproducible cultural and genetic distinctiveness that their ethnic identity imbues them with.
He isolated Nigerian leaders of putative Fulani line of descent—Ahmadu Bello, Shehu Shagari, Murtala Mohammed, and Muhammadu Buhari—whom he said even their “greatest enemies” respect because they supposedly embodied incomparable and uniquely Fulani values (even when they are/were not culturally Fulani).
He pointed out that the same could not be said of “other prominent non-Fulani contemporaries of these great men,” including military Head of State Ibrahim Babangida, who is Hausa, and Sani Abacha, who was Kanuri but born and raised in Kano. Sanusi then said the Fulani are “culturally programmed, generation after generation, to imbibe the best spirits of what makes good leadership, to a far greater extent than competing cultures.”
Garba Shehu, now a spokesperson for President Muhammadu Buhari, who is ethnically Hausa from Jigawa, was incensed. In a response titled “Sanusi’s Racist Rubbish” on July 7, 2000, Shehu wrote: “When I read Sanusi L. Sanusi’s article ‘The Fulani Factor in Nigerian Politics’…I came away with the feeling that the writer wanted to do one of two things: to either be ridiculous or to insult all of us who are not Fulani with some racist crap.”
Shehu invalidated Sanusi’s ethnic supremacist notion of a Fulani culture that makes Fulani people such good, just leaders by calling attention to the atrocities that were perpetuated against Hausa people by Fulani emirs—or what he called the “well-documented acts of brigandage” by the “Fulani oligarchy”— which instigated the emergence of the Northern Elements Progressives Union (NEPU).
“Where was he when the late Sa’adu Zungur, Aminu Kano, and company fought Fulani rulers who forced Hausa peasants to work the emirs’ farms, snatched wives, plundered what was kept in their trust, and appropriated/mismanaged farmlands and other resources belonging to their subjects?” Shehu wrote.
These sorts of emotive brickbats between everyday Hausa and Fulani people are escalating and becoming mainstream in the aftermath of the bloodstained conflict between Hausa farmers and Fulani herders. In fact, there are now calls, from both Hausa and Fulani interlocutors, for the reformation of the emirate system to strip emirship of its exclusivity to people of Fulani ancestry.
I think these are transitory, spur-of-the-moment tensile pushes and pulls that may soon abate, but it’s astonishing that it’s even happening.
[OPINION] Power: Exits and Entrances - Joshua J. Omojuwa
During my Junior Secondary School years at King’s College in Lagos, I had the privilege of reading the news to the school assembly alongside my dear friend, Jide Jacobs. We would read the news just before our highly respected principal, the late Sam Balogun, came on stage to deliver his address. Legendary producer, Cobhams Asuquo once assisted our mini news production with an introductory sound. Mr. Balogun did not appreciate the addition of music and swiftly put a stop to it. We were only looking to add some flair and creativity as young people would do. The bit that made me recall this memory comes from the summer of 1998, just before the France ’98 World Cup.
This continues to be one of my most enduring memories from this period. To close the news, we would leave the audience with a memorable line or quotation. On this occasion, we picked a line from William Shakespeare’s ‘As You Like. It’, from the first lines of its most famous speech, ‘the Seven Ages of Man’,
All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances…
And I added, ‘and so shall France ’98 be’ to close. This was to emphasize to our fellow students that they could not afford to be distracted by the manic effect of that World Cup because after all, it would come and go. The World Cup indeed came and was soon over. Here I am, a quarter century and six more editions later writing about it, the memories as fresh as like it was last Friday. That experience left me with many lessons, two of the biggest ones are that whatever has a date will soon arrive and whatever starts, no matter how exciting, will soon end. These lessons help one to have an appreciation for every great opportunity without getting lost in its allure. You are left experiencing the grandest stages with enough detachment to see yourself as you go along.
If you want to experience a faster year, just plan a to-do list that goes from January to December. If you want to experience a faster day, schedule it out. But even without a schedule, time moves forward, and days, weeks, and years pass by in the blink of an eye.
These lessons are particularly relevant for those in power. Whether through death, other vicissitudes of life or in the case of the government, the constitution or some other form of removal, a time would come when your watch is over. If you were doing any watch. What will be left is your legacy. There is a reason, without the moderating power of the constitution, most people prefer to stay put in power. It is not just because of the privilege and the unending rewards it appears to deliver to those who wield it, it is also because of the general feeling that there is still more to be done. Indeed, work no dey finish, you just do your bit and keep it going.
Everything will come and go, including power. What would be left is your legacy. Four or years years, in many ways, is a long time. In hindsight, in the mind of the person that spent it wielding power, it often appears a really short time. That is not just because power appears to be sweet, it is because in the neck-breaking speed of your new life and the endless activities, without moments of reflection, you get distracted by the glitz and the show and before you know it, it is over. As new individuals take on these roles, former leaders may reflect on missed opportunities and unrealized potential. It is only then that they may come up with innovative ideas and fresh perspectives that could have made a significant difference during their tenure.
This is a lesson everyone must keep to heart. We humans have a good memory, but we often forget. Once distractions like wealth, power and fun set in, we either forget or refuse to remember the guiding principles we hoped we would live when those same opportunities found their way to us.
We are now at that point, even before a handover, where some people’s phones are beginning to ring less and some other people’s phones are ringing a lot more than usual. At equilibrium, just after hand over, the former’s phone will stop ringing and the latter’s phone will not stop ringing. Dr. Reuben Abati shared a useful reflection on this just after his time as Senior Special Adviser to the President.
We all need anchors, values and words to live by and people. People who will not be afraid to tell you as it is. People in the presence of whom your titles and portfolio only have meaning as much as they must respect the office but never see you less or more than you always were to them, say a friend, sister or brother. Even with these people, you must be certain to have layers of them because some of them could get sucked into the manic effect of being close to the corridors of power than even you at its core. We have seen this happen.
Waiting until the final whistle before realizing how much you want to get done is futile. By that point, it is often too late. You must design an agenda and commit to it before kick-off, or risk getting lost in the frenzy of your office before you realize you had power but never really did much with it.
In the end, you must seek to do your best and ensure that best meets certain minimum standards. That is not to say everyone will agree you did enough, but the records are there to reflect your time. Power may be temporary, but legacies are forever. That way you are not left with needing twitter threads to show workings that aren’t there.
Omojuwa is chief strategist, Alpha Reach, and author, Digital Wealth Book
[OPINION] Tinubu And The Meaning Of Insanity - Tunde Odesola
I possess neither the intellect of Albert Einstein nor the anointing of Apostle Matthew, the tax collector and Jesus’ disciple. I’m only a Lagos-born hunter from Igbajo, the Citadel of the Brave — an inheritance of Osun State. Unlike Einstein and Matthew, I’m no Jew, no scholar, no philosopher.
Never can I hold a candle to Einstein’s erudition and groundbreaking theories even if creation imbued me with a dozen brains plus the durability of Methuselah. Even if I spoke in a thousand tongues, I’d be unworthy to touch the hem of Apostle Matthew’s garment. One of the mouth-gaping miracles, aka ‘ise iyanu’ in Yoruba, that I know how to perform lies in the ability of my mouth to refrigerate frying-hot chicken or steaming ‘isi ewu’ goat pepper soup without flinching. I also blink and breathe – a complete trinity of miracles.
Despite my dwarfness when compared with the personae of Einstein, and Matthew, who was also known as Levi, I wish to use the privilege of my penmanship to comment on an issue these two great men had written about many years ago. The issue is i-n-s-a-n-i-t-y.
Einstein says, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results” while Matthew preaches that the rich shall get richer and the poor shall get poorer, and I add: if both continue to do the same thing.
But I would rather be Einstein than be Matthew. Why? The Lord commanded, “Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it…” Genesis 1:28. Me, I’m not Mathias; I cannot ‘come and die’ like Matthew, the martyr did.
Joking apart, Einstein is matchless. His panoply of works are groundbreaking. At just 26, his innovations such as Quantum Theory of Light, Special Theory of Relativity, Brownian Motion etc planted the seeds of global advancement in the soil of boundless possibilities by providing the templates for nuclear power, Google Maps, laser invention that revolutionised agriculture, manufacturing, exploration, security and medicine, just to mention a few. Whereas taking out the gospel of Matthew from the Bible won’t render the Holy Book incomplete as the gospels of Mark, Luke and John contain almost the same essence as Matthew’s.
Insanity in Nigeria tick-tocks with the two hands of the clock counting kidnapping, unknown gunmen, Boko Haram, banditry, barbarous herdsmen, militancy and ritualism as heritages of the outgoing All Progressives Congress presidency.
Insanity is treating insecurity with levity, the way the outgoing President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), has done in eight years, and expecting peace, law and order to abound. Another apostle, Paul, says, ‘God forbid’ the abundance of grace in the plantation of sin, a synonym for heaven helps those who help themselves.
Before Buhari’s tragic years, insecurity was a shy ogre booming behind the cloud, jumping out to wreak havoc, and running back into the cloud. In Buhari’s time, however, insecurity abandoned the cloud, took up permanent residency in Nigeria, physically attacking Aso Rock, violating the Nigerian Defence Academy, taking kings hostage, killing soldiers and policemen for sport, trampling on the skulls of the poor.
President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, made Buhari possible. With the èkù-idà hilt of the sword firmly in his grip after coronation, however, the king unsheathed the I’m-for-nobody sword, sending the kingmaker scampering, lest the power-drunk king walked on Iragbiji blood into the palace as rite of passage.
One hundred and two (102) international trips in a period of eight years make Buhari a top contender in the race for World Itinerant President trophy. Statistically speaking, 102 overseas travels mean that Buhari nestled abroad more than once every month with, economically speaking, nothing to show for the numerous roaming about.
When talking about the insanity of doing the same thing the same way and expecting a different result, Nigeria’s political class needs a cure. President Olusegun Obasanjo had his time in the air. His godson, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, shared airspace with birds of passage in his time.
The three leading candidates in the 2023 presidential election, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and Mr Peter Obi, held many meetings with ex-president(s), governors, ministers, senators, and other politicians in foreign city capitals, yet Nigeria laments dwindling foreign exchange earnings.
A statement by the media team of the President-elect said a few weeks ago, “After a very exhaustive campaign and election season, President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has travelled abroad to REST and PLAN his transition programme ahead of May 29, 2023 inauguration.”
Who made Nigeria unsafe to rest and plan if not the political elite? Do leaders of sane nations go abroad to rest and plan? Our dead-from-the-neck-up leaders proudly run to doctors in foreign lands for old-age surgeries; their ostrich buries its head in the sand at home while its fantastically corrupt rump is on exhibition abroad.
Nigeria’s currencies, Bimodal Voter Accreditation System machines, military hardware and software, telephony, and other strategic equipment are sourced from foreign lands, opening up the country’s security to manipulation and attack. Is the country going to continue in this insane direction under the incoming Tinubu government, and expect development to fall from the sky?
That the retired Major General Buhari failed woefully in the simple task of policing Nigeria adequately is a sad fact. How the country, nevertheless, expected a unidimensional soldier with a contentious school certificate to effectively inspire the military and provide national security beggars sanity.
The primary and secondary school claims of the incoming President came out smeared under searchlight. Is Nigeria, again, not doing the same thing, and expecting a different result?
Recently, the outgoing president asked for forgiveness from Nigerians, without stating which of his countless sins he wants Nigerians to forgive.
I’ll pick just one sin here, and that’s the Nigeria Police. If Buhari acknowledges his failure in this regard, and sincerely asks for forgiveness, I think many Nigerians will forgive him, knowing full well that the police represent just a tip in his iceberg of sins even as this sin-and-forgiveness exercise is capable of bringing to closure the horror of the last eight years.
If Buhari was a conscious President, he ought to know that the country’s underfunded, understaffed, unmotivated police serve only the rich. When you need police service in Nigeria, you pay money to private accounts of police chiefs, who assign to you the number of police officers the weight of your money can procure. The Nigeria Mobile Police Unit is the most bastardised in this respect. Mobile policemen are now posted to churches, mosques, schools, and filling stations for various amounts of money.
Policemen and policewomen who should be guarding the citizenry are now sentries in private homes across the country in Money-for-Mopol deals between moneybags and police chiefs who swindle officers on duty by giving little or nothing to the men in the sun, despite receiving money on their behalf. The racketeering within the police is now so rampant that regular and mobile policemen are secretly and unofficially drafted from state to state to do guard duty by some members of the police hierarchy who collect money for the service provided. This is the reason why police response in times of emergency is lethargic in many states of the federation as policemen, especially MOPOL, would have been posted out unofficially to guard fat dogs in other states – for money that ends up in private pockets.
It doesn’t take rocket science or juju to unravel this security information I lay bare; it only needs a responsible President to put his ears to the ground, and do the needful. The first of the needful here is a total reformation of the police by ensuring adequate staffing, good salary, training and retraining, enticing retirement packages, housing etc.
The role of the police in ensuring security, law and order in a democracy cannot be overemphasised. The incoming President, with his foreign exposure and university education, should know this. Failure of the police is one of the sins of Buhari. Aare Tinubu should take note. Giving ill-trained, hungry and angry men guns and expecting them to act sanely is like setting a beggar on horseback – he’ll ride to the devil!
[OPINION] My democracy is not your democracy - Owei Lakemfa
WE were gathered. Some intellectuals, social activists, journalists, serving and retired diplomats. The primary issue was democracy. Is it universal and is there just a single, or multiple roads to democracy? Is the British democracy which calls itself the Mother of Parliaments, superior to the American version; is the latter better than the Australian or the Chinese? Is Russian democracy superior to the Ukrainian?
It was Thursday, April 27, 2023 and the venue was the Cuban Embassy on Diplomatic Drive, Abuja. The out-going Cuban Ambassador Clara Pulido Escandell was presenting the report of the April 19, 2023 general elections in her country and explaining Cuban democracy within the context of democracy in the modern world.
A product of the consummate Cuban diplomatic tradition which puts people at the centre, Pulido reminded us that Africa had seven days earlier, lost one of its famous liberation fighters and internationalists, Chris ‘Che’ Matlhako of the African National Congress, ANC, and five days later, the United States, US, had on April 25, lost one of its most famous singers and a giant of the Civil Rights Movement, Harry Belafonte. She asked us to honour the duo, not with a minute silence as is traditional, but with music that represents their vocal nature in the cause of the liberation humanity.
She then played the famous song ‘Malaika’ (My Angel) a duet by Belafonte and Miriam Makeba, also known as Mama Africa. We rocked to the Swahili hit song which was composed in 1945 by Tanzanian musician, Adam Salim. Makeba had been forced into exile and made stateless by the Apartheid regime. She had stayed in the US and during her first visit to Africa in 1962 had learnt the song in Kenya, sang it at a concert in 1969 and made a duet with Belafonte who had become her mentor. They were two of the sweetest voices on both continents.
The Cuban elections into the National Assembly of Peoples’ Power had seen the election of 472 Members of Parliament by 68.56 per cent of voters. Miguel Díaz Canel Bermúdez was re-elected President, Salvador Valdés Mesa, Vice President and Esteban Lazo, as Speaker. Leaders were also elected for the Council of State. The prime minister was also ratified and the Council of Ministers appointed. The ambassador explained that the system of elections in Cuba is that the populace vote directly for parliament which then votes in the executive leadership. So democracy in Cuba is a combination of direct and indirect elections. What is most interesting for me is that unlike Nigeria where the senator is cumulatively paid some N14 million monthly and the honourable member of the House of Representatives is paid cumulatively N10 million monthly, their counterparts in Cuba are not paid a dime; neither salaries nor allowances.
The Cuban parliamentarian does his normal job after which he attends parliament to make laws. There are those who claim Cuba is not a democracy. This is debatable. I see democracy as a system of government by popular representation based on the vote of the electorate in which the will of the people prevails. A famous definition which is more descriptive, is by former American President Abraham Lincoln who said: “Democracy is the government of the people by the people for the people.”
America thinks itself perhaps the greatest democracy in the world. However, American democracy did not include the Black people until 1964 when the Civil Rights Movement and international campaigns made it too embarrassing. Although it is assumed that America is a democracy, not a few are uncomfortable with its kind of democracy in which majority vote is not what counts, but some electoral college. In its 2016 elections, Hillary Clinton with 65,845,063 votes or 48.2 per cent of the total vote, lost to Donald Trump with 62,980,160 votes or 46.1 per cent of the votes. Clinton with about three million more votes than Trump, lost!
In the follow-up elections, the sitting American President Trump tried to use arms to get himself re-elected. Until today, Trump has not been brought to book, and may well contest the next elections. Another point on American democracy is that while majority Americans are against gun proliferation, the will of the people has not prevailed. A simple reason might be that America is a country in which you need to be a millionaire to contest for congress; it is the wish of the rich that prevails. So, to paraphrase Lincoln, American democracy is the government of the rich, by the rich, for the rich. Democracy in Britain can even be more ridiculous than the convoluted American one. It runs a ‘constitutional monarchy’. The government is called ‘His Majesty’s Government.’
There, you have a mixture of the parliament and monarchy. When Prime Minister David Cameron lost direction and his Brexit compass malfunctioned, he became a liability and had to go. One of his successors, Boris Johnson was known to be an unreliable politician who had been sanctioned as a journalist for manufacturing an interview that never took place. His ‘alternative facts’ caught up with him and Britons were fed up with him; he had to resign. The best option would have been for the people to decide through free elections who should govern them, but their system of democracy does not allow such freedom until the five –year general election circle is completed or cut short by the governing party. Until then, they must be governed by whoever the parliamentary caucus of the ruling party throws up.
The UK brand of democracy is the Westminster type in which the party or a coalition with the highest number of seats, appoints its leader as prime minister. Even if the overwhelming majority of the populace do not want an incumbent prime minister, but he can win his single constituency seat and please his fellow parliamentarians, he can stay in power indefinitely. There are no term limits in British democracy; Prime Minister Robert Walpole spent about 21 years in office and William Pit, about 19 years.
The shortest-lived is Liz Truss who spent 49 days having been appointed on September 6, 2022 and thrown in the towel on October 25, 2022. A major drawback of British democracy is that the Prime Minster needs only to be a parliamentarian voted for by one of its 650 constituencies. So he does not need to be known or voted for by the rest of the country.
A major issue about democracy is that the world tends to look more at its form and not its content. Democracy should be a system that delivers on the basic needs of the people and not rhetoric and propaganda. Democracy should not be like fashion in which ‘my democracy is finer than yours’.
[OPINION] The Seyi Tinubu property deal - Etim Etim
[OPINION] The Fowl of Mecca and Nigeria’s Census Palaver - Azu Ishiekwene
We have a measurement problem eloquently illustrated in a Yoruba tale about a Mecca has-been. The fellow in this tale had just returned from a pilgrimage to Mecca, apparently the first to do so in his community. Upon his return, folks were understandably curious and wanted to know about the Holy Land.
Thinking of what would best illustrate the majestic splendour of Mecca, the sojourner decided to use a native fowl as an example.
“You all know our native fowl?,” he began.
“Of course!,” his curious, attentive listeners chorused.
“The fowl in Mecca is as big as a cow, if not bigger!,” he told them.
“Oh no!,” one rather incredulous listener said, amidst the rapturous gasps of h-e-n-e-n-h-e! “Big as a cow or big as a goat?”
“Ok,” the sojourner replied, “Let’s say it’s as big as a goat!”
“Oh no!,” the incredulous interlocutor reposed again. “Big as a goat or as big as a rabbit?”
This encounter continued until the sojourner, lowering his hand each time he was challenged, grudgingly lowered it until the point where nearly everyone finally concluded that the size of the fowl of Mecca was not significantly different from the size of the local one.
The tale of the fowl of Mecca is a metaphor of our census dilemma. We have spent nearly 60 years counting ourselves and yet, the answer to Nigeria’s census question is: it depends on whose hand is at play.
The Nigerian Population Commission (NPC) estimates that Nigeria is 218 million; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) puts the figure at “over 200 million”; while the UNFPA and the World Bank estimate Nigeria’s population at between 216 million and 218 million, or thereabouts.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan even said at a recent event that Nigeria is not 200m. “Far from it,” he reportedly said on April 14. “We should be about 150m.”
As things stand, Nigeria is in the company of Afghanistan, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Madagascar, Eritrea and Lebanon as countries without a census population. The only thing certain about the Lebanese population, for example, is that there are more Lebanese in the Diaspora than at home!
The recent attempt to have another count in Nigeria,
already overdue by 17 years, has been postponed indefinitely. After a hasty meeting on Friday night between President Muhammadu Buhari and the Chairman of NPC, Nasir Isa Kwarra, the Federal Government announced that it had decided to let the incoming administration handle the census.
The postponement did not surprise me. After years of doing nothing, the Board of 36 commissioners and a relatively unknown chairman have become so used to pay and prestige without work that getting any serious census off the ground was always going to be a tough job.
Ten years ago, former Managing Director of Nigerian Breweries Plc and Chairman of NPC, Festus Odimegwu, was forced to resign his position because he said Nigeria could not have a meaningful census except certain fundamental changes were made.
He said at the time, “If the current laws are not amended, the planned 2016 census will not succeed.” By that, of course, he meant laws that make the population of states a basis for the sharing of oil revenues and political representation.
His comment ruffled feathers. President Jonathan who already had his back to the wall sacked Odimegwu to appease deeply offended interests in the North who thought the NPC chairman could not be trusted to conduct a credible census.
It turned out, however, that Jonathan’s sacrifice was neither enough to secure him Northern sympathy in the 2015 election nor did the census hold as planned in 2016. His successor, Muhammadu Buhari, after promising to hold the census in May 2023 has now kicked the can down the road, with no shortage of excuses.
The most obvious one was the shift in the date of the governorship and state house of assembly elections. The NPC said the shift in state elections from March 11 to 18 complicated its original plans to have the census between March 29 and April 2.
That is potentially true, but mainly false. The shift by one week may have momentarily affected NPC’s planning and execution, but only momentarily. The Commission was not ready, simple. Apart from those in its glass-panelled offices in Abuja and a few staff in the states, NPC has been very busy talking to itself.
It was not the shift in election dates by a week that complicated NPC’s problem. Its unseriousness was worsened by widespread complaints about the failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) bimodal verification system. NPC was deeply worried by the prospects of a flawed count piling on the unresolved BVAS mess.
Another sign of unpreparedness was the questionnaire – the basic instrument for the 2023 census. On April 14, the NPC Director of Public Affairs, Dr. Isiaka Yahaya, was quoted to have said in Kano that the Commission would not ask questions about religion and ethnicity in the census!
Why not? What is it about respondents’ religion and ethnicity that NPC is so afraid of that it desperately wants to expunge from the questionnaire?
If there was anything that needed a review, it is the often-weaponised “state of origin” which could have been replaced with “state of residence,” for example. But to pretend that it’s OK to strike out religion/non-religion and ethnicity and make us a bunch of aliens is, well, largely alien to population census. I don’t know where this idea is coming from or what NPC hopes to achieve.
But none of the countries I have searched turned up this demographic insanity. Not India, the world’s largest multi-ethnic democracy, where everything from caste to mother-tongue and migration status is required; not South Africa or Kenya; and certainly not Ghana, Nigeria’s neighbour.
Yet, what these countries have in common, but which Nigeria lacks, is significant degree of reliability in primary data on births, deaths, school enrolments, migrations and so on, managed in secure systems and regularly updated. Without reliable primary data, any census conducted — whether every five, seven or ten years — is a waste of time. And without this data also, no reliable planning or forecast is likely.
It would seem that the real elephant in the room, though, is that the NPC knows the Bola Ahmed Tinubu government would reject the outcome of a census rammed down the country’s throat with only days before President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration leaves.
They’re dealing with a familiar customer. It was Lagos State, under Tinubu, that dragged the Federal Government to the tribunal over the 2006 census, on grounds that the state’s population had been underreported by nearly half its size.
The current Lagos Deputy Governor, Femi Hamzat, who was the Commissioner for Science and Technology at the time, produced a book on behalf of the state, entitled, “Errors, Miscalculations and Omissions: The Falsification of Lagos Census Figures,” which essentially said that instead of the 9.1 million which the NPC had awarded the state, its own shadow census showed the state actually had a population of 17.6 million.
Nothing much came out of the legal challenge, but Odimegwu’s complaint seven years later re-echoed the sentiments of Lagos and significantly explains the scramble, this time, to nick the census before May 29.
If Kwarra and his commissioners are deceiving themselves, Buhari knows that Tinubu’s government will not accept any census result under the current circumstances. That is why the census was postponed.
Yet, given the current structure of the country, especially the conservatively dominated National Assembly, it would be difficult to have a credible census, even under Tinubu, without a review of the law that makes population the basis of sharing oil money.
Under the “horizontal sharing” formula of 26.72 percent of revenue in the federation account, for example, population accounts for 30 percent. This figure could be cut to 10 percent; while internal revenue which currently gets 10 percent could be increased to 30 percent.
Appeals not to politicise the census is empty, self-serving noise. Politicians will not relent, unless there is also a countervailing legislation that ties the extent and scope of Federal intervention in states to the taxes or royalties collected from the states and, fundamentally, to how much wealth the states themselves create.
Nothing short of a drastic action will cut the politics of our census fowl to its true size.
[OPINION] President-Elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu: The Sun around Whom Everything and Everyone Revolves - Femi Fani-Kayode
Isn't it amazing that the light of our President-elect is shining all over the planet today and his glory resonates throughout the world?
[OPINION] Does Democracy Matter? - Pat Utomi
[OPINION] President Buhari’s achievements, best response to Punch’s adversity - Garba Shehu
The latest in a series of some partisan editorials by some of this country’s newspapers seeking to rewrite recent history was published by the Punch newspaper paper this weekend, painting a bleak, pessimistic and frequently inaccurate picture of the state of our nation and outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari’s leadership.
In this post-election period of heightened tension and disinformation, we see it fit to set the record straight.
First let’s start with the one thing the editorial gets right: that President Buhari inherited an economy in disarray. Corruption ran rampant, oil-prices were nose-diving and – astoundingly – an international terror cell, the Boko Haram controlled territory the size of Belgium within our country’s borders.
That so-called country, the Caliphate is unrecognizable from today’s Nigeria.
Today, corruption is thrust out in the open by Buhari’s landmark whistleblowing policy, empowering Nigerians to report it without fear and seeing the repatriation of hundreds of millions of dollars stolen by corrupt politicians and stashed in banks abroad.
Terrorists no longer hold any territory in Nigeria whatsoever, and their leaders have been neutralised by our security forces.
Economy has witnessed growth. External reserves have maintained a healthy growth throughout these eight years.
Within two years of the Buhari administration, exports more than doubled from the 2015 records. Agriculture exports grew 180.7% by 2017 above the value in 2015.
Raw material exports grew 154.2% in the same period; solid minerals grew 565% and exports of manufactured goods 26.8%.
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), the Federal Government’s medium-term Economic Plan, launched by President Buhari in April 2017, successfully ushered in a macroeconomic environment and helped the country to achieve food security.
The editorial begrudgingly credits President Buhari for the “massive success” of pushing through the Petroleum Industry Bill – a staggering achievement attempted but failed by myriad previous administrations – as well as the vast improvements to national infrastructure that have set our country on course for sustainable and equitable growth.
The reality of President Buhari and his legacy is a far cry indeed from what the editorial describes as a leader who “failed to demonstrate any real grasp of modern economic ideas, and lacked the presence of mind or leadership acumen required to turn the ailing economy around”. Goodness!
Which economic miracle worker in Punch newspaper can turn round an economy which suffers from collapse of oil prices, COVID-19 lockdown and associated supply chain crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war?
Look around the world and see how practically every country struggles from these disasters.
But President Buhari is not a North Korean dictator. He would be scornful of any world leader who claimed a perfect record and would be the last person to make such claims for himself.
He had his strengths and his weaknesses, and applied the former and mitigated against the latter to achieve his overarching goal: to leave Nigeria a better place than he found it. In that he succeeded.
He presided over the most turbulent period in modern Nigerian history, helping our nation navigate through global shocks such as volatile oil prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the global cost of living crisis.
He kept the ship steady, and paved the way for his successor, President-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to take the reins at the end of this month and build upon what he has already achieved.
The editorial states that Buhari will not be missed. We shall see. But, countless Nigerians whose futures he has improved, will fondly remember him for good.
Among these, to take just one aspect or two- the two million poor and vulnerable Nigerian households that are currently benefiting from the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program, which pays a bimonthly stipend of N10,000 per household; the 355,000 vulnerable persons have received a special one-off grant of N20,000 each in the 36 states and the FCT; the beneficiaries of Nigeria’s Micro-Pension Scheme which allows self-employed persons and persons working in organisations with less than 3 employees to save for the provision of pension at retirement or incapacitation.
Punch possibly doesn’t have a record of the government’s Survival Fund, the National Youth Investment Fund, and National Special Public Works Program (774,000 beneficiaries across 774 LGAs nationwide), and the Central Bank’s COVID-19 N300 billion Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) to support millions of small businesses, households, and young people, with federal grants, loans, and stipends.
This Survival Fund has provided grants (Payroll Support, Artisan and Transport Sector grants, and General MSME grants) to more than 1.2 million beneficiaries, since the last quarter of 2020. It has also provided free business registration to 250,000 MSMEs across the country.
Nor will he be forgotten by the owners of the new 40 plus fertilizer companies and the thousands of people they employ, producing locally to service the more than 12 million new rice growers who in turn provide six million tons of paddy processed by more 100 new rice mills with Kano alone having 62, and others spreading far and wide to Ebonyi, Lagos, Ekiti, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina and others.
No, Punch should stop living in denial. These ones and their kith and kin making up the 200 million plus citizens of our country, the teachers whose backlog of unpaid salaries were paid and the pensioners from years yore, denied payment and treated with contempt now smiling their way to the banks will remember positively that Muhammadu Buhari came, saw and he conquered.
Garba Shehu is the Senior Special Assistant to the President (Media & Publicity)
[OPINION] As Buhari Comes To Judgment… - Sonnie Ekwowusi
President Buhari has come to judgment. After exercising presidential power, judgment follows. Pricked by pangs of conscience on the last Sallah Day, Buhari realized that he committed many injustices against numerous Nigerians during his 8-year misrule. Consequently, he apologized to Nigerians and begged for their pardon. “God gave me an incredible opportunity to serve the country. We are all human, and if I have hurt some people along the line of my service to the country, I ask that they pardon me… All those whom I have hurt, I ask that they pardon me,” said a seemingly remorseful Buhari.
President Buhari has destroyed the lives of countless Nigerians during his 8-year misrule. Therefore, it is not surprising that he is now sitting in judgment with his conscience. A man reaps whatever he sows. The obligation to avoid inflicting physical or psychological harm on others is a primary ethical teaching of Prophet Mohammed (blessings and peace of Allah be upon him). “He who causes harm will be harmed by Allah, and he who acts in a hostile manner will be treated in a hostile manner by Allah” (Jami’al-Tirmidhi, No. 1306). Unfortunately, the Buhari administration has caused tremendous harm to many Nigerians. As we speak, many Nigerians, young and old, are leaving the country in search of the so-called greener pastures abroad. And if the mass exodus of Nigerian medical doctors from Nigeria to Europe and America is not arrested now, there will be fewer or no medical doctors available in Nigeria by 2030. Writhing under the pains of suffocating Buhari’s policies, many multinationals shut down their operations in Nigeria, while others simply fired their staff. From 2016-2018, for example, 9.3 million Nigerians lost their jobs. From 2015-2018, poverty in Nigeria tremendously increased. Nigeria has now taken over from India as the poverty capital of the world. According to the African Development Bank (ADB) Nigeria Economic Outlook, about 152 million Nigerians live on less than $2 a day, representing approximately 80% of the country’s estimated population of 190 million.
The United States Department of State has issued a damning assessment of Buhari’s government. In the 48-page Human Rights Violation Report, it stated that impunity remained widespread at all levels of government in Nigeria during Buhari’s reign. It notes that the Buhari government lacks transparency. The report also indicted the Buhari government for not adequately investigating or holding police or military personnel accountable for many extrajudicial killings. The Buhari government came to power on the mantra of fighting corruption. But tragically, the Buhari government is now defined by corruption. For example, the United States Human Rights Report has scored President Buhari’s government low for corruption. The Report states, among other things, “Although the law provides criminal penalties for conviction of official corruption, the government did not implement the law effectively, and officials frequently engaged in corrupt practices with impunity. Massive, widespread, and pervasive corruption affected all levels of government and the security services.”
Buhari’s currency redesign policy is still inflicting pain on Nigerians. Imagine having money in your bank account and not being able to access it because of a badly-conceived currency redesign policy. Imagine bank customers endlessly queuing up under the sun to access their own money in the bank. I gather that many hospitalized sick Nigerians have died simply because their relatives were unable to withdraw money from the banks to purchase drugs for the deceased. Is this not a sin that cries to heaven for vengeance?
At the twilight of the 2023 Election, Buhari promised Nigeria and the international community that he would leave a legacy of a free and fair 2023 election in his 8-year tenure. Now, it is no longer news that INEC organized the most rigged election in the history of elections in Nigeria. Why has President Buhari not queried or sacked the INEC chair Prof Mahmood Yakubu for organizing the most scandalous election in Nigeria?
The foregoing attests that President Buhari has failed in office. Buhari’s suffocating policies have led to the deaths of many Nigerians. This is why the man is laboring in vain to pacify his conscience, which has adjudged him a failure. A guilty person might escape human justice wrought in the court of law; they might take flight from their guilt through ingenious rationalization, but they cannot escape from the ultimate justice in the recesses of their conscience. The natural law is written in the heart of every rational person. Therefore, every rational person, whether they are Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, atheist, Marxist, internet free-thinker, juju worshipper, agnostic, animist, or otherwise, is under the judgment of the natural law written in their heart. For example, in one of the tragedies of Sophocles, the woman Antigone sought permission from the King to give her dead brother a burial befitting a human being. But the King refused because the dead brother was adjudged an enemy of the State. However, Antigone approached the King and told him that there was another law (natural law) higher than the King’s law, which obliged the King to give her brother a proper burial. Antigone was neither a Christian nor a Muslim. She had never read the Bible or the Koran, yet she recognized a higher law, the law of conscience, which obliged the King to give her brother a befitting burial. When we commit an injustice, our consciences continue to torture us until we make amends.
There is this anecdote of some Japanese ladies who had committed several abortions in their youthful days. Pricked by their consciences, they went and molded some effigies that actually looked like the babies they had murdered, placed them one by one on a platform, and started bowing before these effigies, asking them for forgiveness for the murders they had committed. This is natural law at work. In Dostoevsky’s epic work, Crime and Punishment, Raskolnikov tried to erase his crime from his heart by ingenious rationalization, but upon discovering the inescapable basis for ultimate justice in his heart, he went to Siberia and served an eight-year prison term to appease his conscience.
Therefore, if Buhari really wants to appease his conscience and have a restful and peaceful retirement in Daura or Niger Republic, he should make amends or reparations for the many injustices he committed against Nigerians. Allah will treat him the way he treats others. Allah will not have mercy on him unless he has mercy on others. Therefore, President Buhari should treat people well in the remaining days of his tenure. He should show mercy to others to enjoy mercy and peace in Daura. He should show kindness. Allah loves those who are kind. Therefore, President Buhari should order the release of all prisoners unjustly detained in Nigerian correctional centers, including Nnamdi Kanu, who, in actual fact, has been discharged and acquitted by the court but is deliberately left to languish in prison. Buhari should also ensure that his government obeys all pending court orders served on it.
Ninety percent of President Buhari’s key political appointees are from his part of the country, and he refused to alter this imbalance in conformity with the pluralistic and multi-ethnic nature of Nigerian society and the Federal Character principle as enshrined in section 14(3) of the 1999 Constitution. Now, as he is quitting office, how would Allah judge him for this act of injustice? The Golden Rule states, “Honesty is the best policy.” Allah, the Exalted and Glorious, says, “stand firm for justice…even if it be against yourselves, your parents, and your relatives.” Therefore, Buhari should stand firm for justice and correct the lopsided political appointments in his government before he leaves office to avoid his conscience torturing him when he retires to Daura. He should also order for the arrest and prosecution of INEC chair Prof Mahmoud Yakubu for squandering a gargantuan sum of N3O5 Billion in organizing the most chaotic and rigged election in Nigeria. There is no doubt that Prof. Yakubu is a big disgrace to Nigeria. Therefore, justice demands that Buhari should fire Prof. Yakubu before he (Buhari) leaves office.
Ethical conduct is the anchor of the Islamic personality of a Muslim. There is an obligation on Muslims to improve and enhance the welfare of others, including care for the sick. But President Buhari cares no hoot about the welfare of the sick. Rather than improve and re-equip the existing public hospitals in Nigeria so that many sick Nigerians could go there for medical treatment, Buhari prefers going for medical tourism in London to cater for his own health. Therefore, in his remaining days in office, Buhari should show mercy to sick Nigerians. He should visit the hospitals and console the sick patients there. If President Buhari wants peace in his retirement, he should ensure that the daughter of Zion and conscience of Nigeria, Leah Sharibu, regains her freedom. Otherwise, the bad prayer of this girl will never allow Buhari to enjoy peace in his retirement. President Buhari has not only over-borrowed money but also misused the borrowed money in inanities. In fact, Nigeria’s rising debt profile spells doom for the incoming government.
Therefore, if Buhari wants peace in his retirement, he should team up with the incoming government to rein in Nigeria’s debt. Buhari is very conscious of his place in history. He is afraid that history will judge him harshly and negatively. But he should not forget that he has repeatedly promised to end insecurity in Nigeria. Even in March 2023, the President reiterated his government’s commitment to winning the war against terrorism and other forms of insecurity. The truth of the matter however is that insecurity in Nigeria has worsened despite Buhari’s assurances that he will defeat insecurity before leaving office. As Buhari leaves office without fulfilling his aforesaid promise, it is doubtful whether he will enjoy peace in his retirement.