“The future will come and it will be different.” — Peter Drucker, 1909 -2005.

There will always be tomorrow. I learnt that fact from one of the most popular musicians in the 1960s.

Too young to understand its significance, I just enjoyed the music. Trainee programme, conducted by Polaroid Corporation, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, in 1970, for young employees, was the first exposure I had to forecasting future trends — especially economic and political.

The two were regarded as the Siamese twins determining mankind’s fate all the time. At the end of the one week course, each participant was required to make three predictions on any variable – for three months, six months and one year. On due dates, the course organiser would open our sealed forecasts; check them against actual occurrence and send out a circular to announce the results. Suddenly, attempting to unravel what might happen in the future was no longer a useless past time. My career depended on it. Since returning to Nigeria in 1974, I have been astonished by how little attention  Nigerian leaders in the public and private sectors pay to the matter.

“PMI report indicates slowdown in economic activities for 13 months -CBN.” — VANGUARD, August 15, 2024.

I sent a message to the VANGUARD Editor as soon as the vendor brought my morning papers telling him that the CBN deliberately omitted to disclose the obvious economic conclusion from that report. The Nigerian economy is in a recession; which is getting worse. For all of us, that is very bad news. The most important questions at this point are: how long will the recession last? How will it affect businesses? What will be required to reverse the trend?

In all my years working in the private sector of the Nigerian economy, I have experienced a few firms which operate without annual budgets at all. Even those which did hardly took into account economic trends and forecasts. There is very little doubt, in my mind, that the PMI report would have been glossed over by millions of Nigerian businessmen and women – as if it does not concern them. Yet, the survival of hundreds of thousands of businesses — large, medium, small and micro — depends on how quickly the downward trend can be halted and a recovery gets underway.

As usual, I have three true stories to tell regarding how vital having economic advice, as opposed to financial counseling, can be in a volatile economy. The three experiences taught me that having even a small peek into the future is infinitely better than sailing into a raging storm blind-folded as most Nigeria businessmen do now.

Slade Gorton, Frozen Fish Dealer, Boston, 1968-70

I finished undergraduate studies in June 1968; had got admission for MBA in Boston and took a full-time sales job. But, I was eager to partake in the American dream. I also took on two part-time jobs in order to raise the money to qualify for a mortgage for a house of my own. Architect (Col ) Tomi Asenuga, rtd, and Ayo Olagundoye, former Managing Director of defunct National Bank are my witnesses that by 1970, I had a house in Cambridge, half-way between Harvard University and MIT. Slade Gorton Fish made it happen. A sign posted in front of the building in Boston Harbour area asked for salesmen – full or part time. I applied. But, Mr. Gorton, later Senator, had other ideas for a graduate in Economics on his way to Business School for MBA. He attached me to his Economic Consultants providing advice on future trading. Because the company was buying and selling frozen seafood in 50 countries, he needed somebody to focus on exchange rate movements and how they would impact fish trade. The frozen seafood trade was highly competitive; but, I learnt very quickly how our forecasts gave the company a competitive advantage. I earned the money for my mortgage from selling fish and shrimps that had not even been caught!!!

North Brewery Ltd, Kano, and SAP — 1987

Lightening strikes more than once; if someone learns the proper lessons from history. When President Babangida opened the national debate on whether or not Nigeria should accept the loan offered by the International Monetary Fund, IMF, subject to also accepting the conditions attached, I was Corporate Planning Manager for North Brewery. It was my responsibility to guide the company’s diversification programme aimed at turning the brewery into a conglomerate based on NORBRU FARMS LIMITED which had acquired 10,000 hectares in Karu Local Government, near, Keffi. The success of the entire plan rested on the outcome of the national debate; but, particularly, the foreign exchange policy adopted by government. Once government adopted market determined exchange rate – in any form – we would have to start all over again with our financial estimates.

One thing however was clear to me. Whatever the outcome of the heated debates might be, devaluation was inevitable. So, I wrote an internal memo, restricted to the Managing Director, the General Manager and the AGM (Finance), advising the company, which was sitting on a large pool of cash, to engage in future trading — buy a lot of stuff before the announcement by the FG. I used cars as an example of what might happen to prices. Volkswagen Beetle and Peugeot 504 SR were selling for N6,000 and N15,000 respectively. My forecast was N25,000 for the Beetle and N48,000 for the Peugeot. I also warned that the company might not be able to buy new cars for a long time to come.

 The reply was prompt. The General Manager, scribbled in red ink across his own copy: “Dele, you must have been drinking too much Double Crown today. How can anybody sell VW for N25,000”? He copied it to other top and senior managers – who enjoyed the joke at my expense. I was undaunted. I applied for a staff loan, to which I was entitled, for N15,000 to buy the Peugeot from Danjuma Tsokwas Peugeot Dealer in Yola. The MD, a close friend, had the vehicle delivered to me in Kano, registered, GG4978YL, and fully insured. He went further. He sent an unlicenced Peugeot 505 SR just in case I wanted a bigger car – ten days before Babangida spoke about the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP.

A week after IBB’s address, Volkswagen of Nigeria and Peugeot Automobile of Nigeria, PAN, posted new prices  — Beetle N26,000, Peugeot 504 SR N48,500. There was total silence when I entered the Senior Staff Bar and ordered two bottles of Double Crown and then announced: “Only those who drink too much Double Crown can think straight”. One by one, people sneaked into my office to ask the same question: “Dele how did you do it”? That was followed by “Congratulations, your new car (which I parked under cover on the premises) is now worth N48,500. How much will you accept for the 505? – which was delivered for N17,500. I would later sell the 504, after covering nearly one million kilometres, all over Nigeria and West Africa for N95,000.

More recently

In mid-2020, admitted for prostate cancer surgery, during COVID-19, I had all the time in the world to work on my forecasting models. Thinking I might die, everybody coming to visit me was advised to go and buy dollars and keep them.

A few did; most did not. The exchange rate was N350/US$ then; it is N1600/US$ now. Save your business. Find out what the exchange might be. End of story.

Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.

AS a young man, I quite often heard the Latin phrase: “Vox populi, vox dei”, meaning: “The voice of the people is the voice of God”. Democracy, whatever the brand, is supposed to uphold this.

But the Nigerian people might be too busy to speak; too hungry to talk. Under such circumstances, they need to remain silent. But who better to speak for the people than the National Assembly? That is why parliamentarians are assembled: to speak for their otherwise preoccupied constituents.

In any case, if a country of 220 million people were to allow the people speak, there will be a cacophony. The Tower of Babel would be a child’s play. So, for order and democracy, good governance and maintenance of discipline, if the people must speak, it should be through the mouths of their elected or selected parliamentarians in the National Assembly. After all, the people drink champagne through the throat of their leaders.

This must be the reason, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abbas Tajudeen, introduced his profoundly thoughtful Counter Subversion Bill and other related draft legislation on July 23, 2024.

Trust Nigerians not to listen to simple instructions such as speaking only through parliamentarians. So, the Speaker’s bill, understandably, had to in effect, suspend sections of the Constitution such as the right to assembly, free speech and movement.

Equally, given the fact that governance is such a tasking job that requires the full concentration of the leaders, the Taju bill seeks to stop politicians in power from being distracted or even insulted. So the bill provides that Nigerians should be jailed up to two years or pay a fine of N4 million for any action considered to demean or embarrass a public official.

Does this sound familiar? Maybe not to the Gen Zee generation. But to mine, it was a law we lived with under the military. It was called Decree 4 of 1984 under which if a story, even if true in all material particular, embarrassed a public official, the culprit went to jail for one year. It was a decree promulgated by General Muhammadu Buhari, as he then was. So, for that law and, the Taju bill, the truth is not an amour.

I have to state now that the Speaker is not well advised on the bill and that the law he wishes to push through is in aid of fascism. If I were to say so after the bill becomes law, I may write my columns in the next two years from jail as this comment might be deemed to embarrass the man who is Number Four in the country’s political hierarchy.

The Speaker also seeks a three-year jail term or a N5 million fine for “disrespecting” constituted authorities. This obviously will be quite good to shut the wide mouths of those whose stock in trade is to be disrespectful to our revered leaders or, even make disrespectful skits. They need to be taught that governance is not a joke.

The Speaker is not selfish, so the category of those to be protected under this section are not just our leaders at local government, state and federal levels, but also the leadership of “a community, religion, lawful group”. This means that wherever you are, be careful not to insult leaders at any level, otherwise you may be headed for the jail house.

Nigerians, since colonial times, have been known for protests. Even after independence, the protests continued, especially by students, youths and human rights groups. We have witnessed protests against continued colonial rule, the Anglo-Nigeria Defence Pact, increases in school fees, the IMF Structural Adjustment Programme, fuel price hikes, military misrule, police brutality and, this month, against hunger. All these, under the bill, would become criminal activities.

Clause 3 of the Tajudeen bill, reads: “A person who engages in illegal road traffic functions, illegal roadblocks, imposition of illegal curfews, conducting illegal processions, checkpoints, and other similar acts, commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine of N2,000,000 or imprisonment for a term of five years or both.”

Pro-democracy activists like President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are lucky this type of law did not exist during the fight against military dictatorship and for the actualisation of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. Otherwise they would have cooled their heels behind bars.

Many Nigerians are fond of using symbols that promote other countries rather than Nigeria. For instance, they wear T-shirts like: ‘I Love New York’. Some hoteliers hoist the flags of various countries and protesters even carry the flags of other countries. All these unpatriotic acts which tend to show loyalty to other countries or promote them, would under this bill, earn 10 years imprisonment or a fine of N5 million.

Some Nigerians always complain about marginalisation. Some even advocate leaving the federation. With this bill, any such agitation has to be done in jail. It states that any statement or action for separatist agitation, attracts a fine of N10,000,000 or imprisonment for a term of 25 years or both.

The bill also specifies a fine of N5m, a 10-year prison sentence, or both for anyone found guilty of destroying national symbols, refusing to recite the national anthem and pledge.

Splits occur amongst Nigerians and their groups. Under this bill, anyone who forcefully takes over any place of worship, town hall, school, premises, public or private place, arena, or a similar place, for whatever reason, can be fined N5m, or imprisoned for 10 years or both.

Many civil society organisations are known to receive foreign donations. The bill seeks to criminalise this. It states that a “person who receives financial or political support from a foreign organisation, group or country that is not compatible with the interest, development, security and progress of Nigeria, commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine of N15m or imprisonment for a term of 20 years or both.”

If you are a non-conformist with a propensity to disregard, disobey, or disrespect constituted authority, rules, regulations, order or contravene the law wilfully, under this bill, you are on conviction to spend three years imprisonment at the first instance, and seven years for a subsequent offence or to a fine of N5m or both.

I am not sure if Speaker Abbas read the bill he presented or reflected on it. Otherwise, he would not have included many of the clauses, some of which, quite honestly, are not just absurd but are incomprehensible in a sane society.

He has now announced the withdrawal of the bill. But whether this is a true realisation of the satanic nature of his bill, or a tactical withdrawal is left to be seen. Meanwhile, We Move!

Once again, former President Olusegun Obasanjo (Obj), has visibly shown his disgust for the disposition of the nation’s legislators especially those at the federal level. The week before, Obasanjo told a team of six legislators who visited him in Abeokuta, Ogun State that many individuals currently holding public office lack the necessary character to lead the nation adding that some of them in the national assembly ought to be behind bars or even face the gallows. Exactly 10 years ago, the former president had alleged thatthe national assembly was ‘a den of corruption occupied by a group of unarmed robbers.’ 

With the level of information that a former president can garner, it is probably time for the nation to begin to interrogate the rationale for the damaging comments Obasanjo keeps making about our lawmakers.Unfortunately, responsesto the criticism from both the national assembly and some Nigerians who appear to have an axe to grind with Obj, cannot help the legislators. It would be so for as long as our lawmakers think they are smarter than the average citizen concerning their alleged bogus remuneration. In the case of the current Senate, all that Yemi Adaramodu its spokesperson did was to repeat denials of the allegations as his predecessors did many times in the past. 

Of course, to describe Obj’s criticism as satanic takes nothing away from its veracity. As for one traditional ruler who sought to blackmail the author’s message as hypocritical, there is need to make the point that most citizens are convinced that the allegations are true.As bad as people such as an Oyo Monarch, Oba Francis Alao may have felt about Obj’s criticism of our legislators, it was not the former president that equated the greed of our law makers to one quarter of the nation’s budget. Instead, it was Sanusi Lamido Sanusi former governor of the CBN, now the 16th Emir of Kanothat worked out the calculation. The then CBN governor spoke as far back as 2010 while delivering the convocation lecture of the Igbinedion University Okada. 

When summoned by the Senate to apologise for supposedly accusing the legislature falsely,Sanusi insisted that he got his figures from the budget adding that he had a duty to draw attention to developments that could derail Nigeria’s economy. Big pity, not many followed up with the criticism when it was first made over a decade ago.On two other occasions, a few strong voicesattacked the national assembly on same ground of its ‘jumbo’ pay. One of them was renowned legal guru, Professor Itse Sagay who raised the alarm that the remuneration package of the average federal legislator in Nigeria surpassed that of the American President. 

Sagay revealed a detailed package of our lawmakers’ numerous allowances on such headings as Hardship, Constituency, Furniture, Newspapers, Wardrobe, Recess, Accommodation, Utilities, Domestic staff, Entertainment, Vehicle maintenance, Leave, and Severance gratuity etc.The controversy was still fresh when President Goodluck Jonathan’s government invited Richard Dowden, Director of the Royal African Society in the UK to deliver the year’s Independence Day celebration lecture. Jonathan, his vice, one past president, cabinet ministers, legislators, ambassadors and the media heard Dowden say that Nigerian lawmakers were the highest paid in the world notwithstanding that their country had no less than 100 million people living in poverty.

At the end of the lecture, it became obvious that criticisms against the jumbo pay of our legislators was not only local, the international community was also fully aware of it. Indeed, last Thursday, Beroro Efekoro, a Nigerian-born US legislator representing Albany County in the 7th district of New York described the salaries and allowances of Nigerian legislators as outrageous. It is therefore important forNigerians to quickly change their approach of supporting the practice of sweeping dirty reports under the carpet. Rather than chastising the messenger, it is more in the interest of governance and society to assess the message and ascertain its probative value. 

The greater pain to me is that Oba Francis Alao said he agreed with Obasanjo on the subject but was unhappy with the former president for pretending to be a saint. He wanted Obasanjo whom he felt was similarly corrupt to volunteer to be probed. But how could such a viewpoint exonerate the legislators from among those hurting our economy? After all, Obasanjo did not exclude himself or other Nigerians from guilt; he probably chose to focus on the institution of his immediate target group – the visiting legislators. Otherwise, it would have been annoying if the former president had failed to indict traditional rulers some of whom had been dethroned in some states for sponsoring banditry.

Anyone who is convinced that the indictment of our federal legislators is unjust is free to defend them by presenting verifiable evidence to persuade the rest of us to share his standpoint. If not, it is unfair that some Nigerians especially the privileged elders always dissuade critics from calling out top office holders in the country. Painfully, such so called elders are influenced by material benefits to support the approach of business as usual to governance.For the rest of us it is extremely difficult to accept the continuing deceit of the people by our legislators. There are at least three important Nigerians, themselves legislators who have at one time or the other made it hard for us to be convinced to the contrary.

To start with, two of thelegislators have come out openly to confirm that the public perception of a jumbo pay to the average legislator is correct. One of them is the reputable activist and former Senator Shehu Sani who represented Kaduna Central during the 8th Assembly. Sani confirmed that he received a remuneration of N13million which was reportedly credited to his account every month. Even after Sani had shown such remorse because he was ‘pricked by his conscience as an activist to do so, his colleagues are still busy disseminating falsehood. Surprisingly, only last week, asecond legislator, Kawu Ismaila (kano south) who had to meet a moral duty of letting taxpayers and Nigerians in general know the correct take-home pay of senators established that Sani’s figure has since moved to N21million during the current 10th Senate.

The question as to why only a few members have had the courage to disclose their actual remuneration needs not be asked because it is an open secret that any member who discloses any unpalatable information about the national assembly stood a chance of facing huge punishment. In 2016, the House of Representatives unanimously suspended Abdulmumuni Jibrin, a law maker from Kano state for as long as 180 legislative days for telling the nation about budget padding in the House. Jubril according to the verdict of the House was also banned from holding any position of responsibility for the span of that House.Considering that Jibrin was the chairman of the House Committee on Appropriation and thus best positioned to discover budget padding, he was silenced after a kangaroo trial.

Does anyone expect Nigerians to disbelieve the two senators who have come out to disclose their own take-home pay? That is not likely to happen because even reactions by other senators have neither been uniform nor credible. For example, in 2017, Aliyu Sabi-Abdullahi, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs had presented what looked solid as a defence by rebutting the rumour of a jumbo pay and asking any interested Nigerian to verify from the relevant authority, the Revenue and Mobilization Fiscal Allocation Commission RMAFC. Almost immediately, the International Centre for Investigative Reporting ICIR which visited the website of the RMAFC reportedly found the relevant section on ‘remuneration package’ to be empty.

It is noteworthy that RMAFC has since become more of a partisan group than a societal institution concerned about sustainable development. Before now, the posture of the commission was to distance itself from the controversy of the self-made legislators’ jumbo allowances. At a point, it announced a few thousands of naira as allowances but later said nothing when the allowances became a scandal. However,the recent denial of Shehu Sani’s figureby RMAFC’s current chairman has put the commission at the centre of the controversy. Now that a serving senator has validated Sani’s revelation, has the RMAFC not become an integral part of what ‘Igodomigodo’ would call odoriferous saga?

…when a leader stubbornly keeps the cubs of lions as pets. When the cubs grow, it will become a danger to both the owner and the villager…

Let me quickly state that this admonition will step on toes, it will step on even legs, arms, and possibly shoulders; and this is because while I am not crediting myself with all the knowledge and expertise on the subject matter and issues around it, most of what I am about to share with us are largely true, in public space and thus do it hurts, I am not sure if it will bother our leaders.

This also is not the first nor fourth time I have engaged on this clarion call to leaders of the Northern part of Nigeria, I am equally certain, that in recent times I am also not the only one that is expressly concerned, and again with the recent showing of our people during the #endhunger and #endbadgovernance protests there is cause for alarm.

The region is on fire, and the flames are being fanned by its own leaders, who seem more concerned with their personal interests than the welfare of the people.

The Arewa Peoples Congress, once a respected voice of the North, has become a retirement home for lame leaders, while the Northern Governors Forum is more interested in globe-trotting than addressing the pressing issues facing the region. The North is being left behind, while the rest of the country is making progress albeit slowly. Schools are springing up in the South, but in the North, billions are being spent on building mosques, getting people married off, or engaging in emir-ship tussles, as if that is the solution to the region’s problems.

The North is a complex system of different ethnic groups, including Hausas, Fulanis, Tarokh, Tivs, Idomas, Nupes, and many others. However, instead of celebrating this diversity, the region is plagued by infighting, with Fulanis, Tivs, and Beroms at war with each other. Elders, both religious, and traditional have failed to provide leadership and guidance, and the region’s people are suffering as a result.

The almajiri system, which was once a noble tradition, has degenerated into institutional begging, with children roaming the streets instead of being in school. The region’s farmers are suffering, and farmlands are being ravaged, while the deserts are being deserted. Women and girls are being raped and killed, and the response is often a shrug of the shoulders and a resigned “In Shaa Allah.”

The North is facing an identity crisis, with different groups struggling to define themselves. Who are the Hausas, who are the Fulanis, and what about the Hausa/Fulanis? What is the place of Islam in the North, and how do Christians fit into the equation? These questions are not being addressed, and instead, the region is being torn apart by divisions and conflicts.

The North’s poor leadership plague, continues with successive governments failing to address the region’s pressing needs. The Talakawa agenda, which was once a rallying cry for the masses, has been abandoned, and the oligarchy has failed to provide a vision for the region’s development. The people have no direction, and the leaders are more concerned with their own power struggles than with finding solutions to the region’s problems.

The Middle Belt, which was once a bridge between the North and the South, is now an emotional wreck. If the North were to decide to exit from Nigeria, it is unclear whether the other regions would fight to keep it. Would it be 19 states, or would some states opt out? The people of Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, Kogi, and others are already tired of being lumped together as “the North” without being consulted.

The North with her immense natural resources, including gold, precious stones, and fertile land, instead of developing these resources, is being plundered, and the people are being left behind. Dangote, the richest man in Africa, is from the North, but the region is also sadly home to some of the poorest communities, and nearly all his investments are outside the North.

The South-west, despite its own challenges, is making progress towards regional integration, while the South-east and South-south are also moving forward in a way. However, the North is stuck in the past.

The current state of the North is a reflection of the failure of its leaders and the people’s willingness to accept mediocrity. The region is being destroyed by its own people, and it is time for a change. The people need to demand more from their leaders and start working towards a better future.

Using religion as a tool to dumb our population down, and using ethnicity as a tool to fan the embers of hatred and then sit back and watch won’t work forever. The template has remained the same, albeit with slight modifications from time to time…nothing has changed. If anything, we are witnessing it become much worse.

The North needs to wake up and take control of its destiny. It needs to stop relying on the federal government and start developing its own resources. It needs to stop fighting each other and start working together towards a shared common goal. The region needs to stop being held back by its own people and start moving forward. The time for change is now.

It is time for the North to take a hard look at itself and stop lying to itself and its people. The region needs to stop relying on prayer and luck, population and start working towards a better future.

I will end this admonition in the words of one of the problem sons of the North, retired General Danjuma, “We need to think more, pray more, plan more, work harder, RELATE BETTER, and talk less. Battles are better fought and won through wisdom and strategy than through inflammable pronouncements and political tantrums.” This is to the North but it equally applies to Nigeria—May Nigeria win!

Prince Charles Dickson PhD

Team Lead

As the 2024 gubernatorial race in Edo State gathers momentum, the focus is increasingly shifting from campaign promises to the candidates’ abilities to communicate effectively with the public. In a state where the electorate is becoming more politically aware and demanding, the importance of public speaking and debate cannot be overstated. These platforms offer voters a direct insight into each candidate’s vision, policies, and ability to lead. However, a troubling trend has emerged in this election cycle: the reluctance of certain candidates to engage in debates and public speaking events, raising serious concerns about their preparedness for the role of governor.

Public speaking is not merely a tool for delivering campaign rhetoric; it is a fundamental aspect of leadership. A candidate’s ability to articulate their ideas, respond to challenges, and connect with diverse audiences is a critical measure of their suitability for office. In Edo State, where political dynamics are complex and the stakes are high, the electorate expects nothing less than clarity, confidence, and competence from those who aspire to lead.

The reluctance of some gubernatorial candidates to participate in debates is therefore alarming. These forums are designed to give the electorate a transparent view of who the candidates are, what they stand for, and how they intend to govern. Avoiding these opportunities can suggest a lack of preparedness, a deficiency in communication skills, or worse, an unwillingness to subject one’s ideas to public scrutiny.

One candidate who has become the center of this debate is Senator Monday Okpebholo, the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial aspirant. Okpebholo’s conspicuous absence from public debates and his overall hesitancy to engage in public speaking events have not gone unnoticed. His reluctance became glaringly apparent when recently, Okpebholo was conspicuously absent during a debate organized by the Unuedo Renaissance, one of the most important social-cultural Edo diaspora groups, where the PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, squared up against the Labor Party candidate, Olumide Akpata, a development that has since become a hot topic among political analysts and the general public alike.

The ability to debate effectively is not just about winning arguments; it’s about demonstrating the qualities that make a leader: decisiveness, intellectual rigor, and the capacity to inspire confidence. When a candidate avoids these opportunities, it raises legitimate concerns about their ability to lead under pressure. For voters in Edo State, this avoidance could be a red flag, signaling that a candidate may lack the necessary qualities to navigate the complex challenges of governance.

Moreover, in a democratic setting, debates are a crucial part of the electoral process. They allow voters to compare candidates side by side, assessing their policies, their vision, and their ability to respond to real-time challenges. By choosing not to participate, a candidate denies the electorate the chance to make an informed decision. This not only undermines the democratic process but also suggests a troubling lack of respect for the voters who deserve to hear directly from those who seek to lead them.

The implications of this reluctance extend beyond the individual candidate. It reflects on the overall political culture and the level of accountability that the electorate can expect from their leaders. In Edo State, where political engagement is on the rise, the electorate is unlikely to look kindly on a candidate who appears to be hiding from public scrutiny. The ability to engage openly and confidently with the public is not just a campaign skill,it is an essential part of governance.

Furthermore, public speaking and debates are critical for building trust between a candidate and the electorate. Voters want to see that their leaders are not only capable but also approachable and transparent. They want to know that their concerns will be heard and addressed, not brushed aside. A candidate who avoids these interactions may be seen as disconnected from the people they intend to govern, further eroding their credibility and appeal.

In contrast, candidates who embrace these opportunities demonstrate their readiness to lead. They show that they are not afraid to stand by their policies, answer tough questions, and engage with the public in a meaningful way. This willingness to be open and transparent is a strong indicator of a candidate’s commitment to accountability and good governance.

As the election draws closer, it is imperative for the electorate in Edo State to critically evaluate not only what the candidates are saying but also how they are choosing to say it. A candidate’s approach to public speaking and debate offers valuable insights into their leadership style and their ability to navigate the complexities of governance. Edo State needs a leader who is not only capable of making sound decisions but also willing to engage openly with the public and address their concerns head-on.

The reluctance of any candidate to participate in debates and public speaking events should be a significant concern for voters. It is a potential indicator of how they might govern, avoiding difficult situations, shying away from public scrutiny, and failing to communicate effectively with the people. For a state as diverse and dynamic as Edo, these are not qualities that inspire confidence.

In the final analysis, the question facing the voters of Edo State is a critical one: Do we want a leader who avoids the spotlight, or do we want someone who embraces it, confident in their ability to lead and communicate effectively? The answer to this question will shape the future of Edo State, determining not just the outcome of this election, but the trajectory of the state’s governance for years to come.

In this election, more than ever, the electorate’s choice will be influenced by not just the policies but the personalities of the candidates. Those who are willing to stand before the people, defend their ideas, and engage in open debate are the ones most likely to earn the trust and confidence of the voters. Edo State deserves a governor who is not only prepared to lead but is also unafraid to speak directly to the people they aim to serve.

Table 1

A, represents Month on month basis, headline inflation 

B, represents Head Line Inflation on Year-to-Year Basis

C, represents the contribution of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages to the increase in the Headline index (Year on Year)

D, represents the contribution of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages to the increase in the Headline index as a percentage of headline inflation (Year on Year)

E, represents Food Inflation on a Year-on-Year Basis

It is no longer news that Nigeria’s headline inflation on year- on- year basis declined for the first time since December 2022. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, it dropped to 33.40% in July 2024 from 34.19% in June 2024. It is no fluke as the month-on-month headline inflation declined consistently since March 2024, with June 2024 as an exception. It is important to note that inflation only started to decelerate after the Central Bank, at its first Monetary Policy Meeting of 2024, held on the 26th & 27th of February 2024, the benchmark interest rate, by 400 basis points from 18.75% to 22.75%. It made subsequent increases, as need arose. The benchmark interest rate is currently 26.75%.

Interestingly, from January to July 2024, food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation contributed to no less than 51.8% of the headline inflation on a year-on-year basis. In July 2024, it contributed to 17.3% of the 33.4% headline inflation rate. The headline inflation rate was lowest in January when food inflation was also at its lowest. Therefore, reducing food inflation is key to the government’s long-term goal of driving inflation to single digit. It is not strait jacket as various factors, some of which are interwoven, have contributed to food inflation in Nigeria.

The rising cost of farming and transporting food commodities to the point of sale has affected the final price of food items. For example, the cost of animal feed, veterinary services, energy, fertilizer, seedlings, machinery & spares, and fuel has risen since the removal of the fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira by the government. Insecurity, which has caused many farmers to abandon their farmland, has led to a decrease in farm produce, causing shortages, especially during the dry season. This has encouraged hoarding and profiteering, with food prices skyrocketing. Food availability was also impacted by the increased demand for our farm produce from neighbouring countries as the devaluation of the naira, made them cheaper.

It is likely that, in the immediate future, headline inflation will experience more decline but not necessarily on a straight-line basis, because the implementation of the new national policy is expected to increase household spending and raise the cost of producing/offering goods and services as employee wages increase. The Central Bank of Nigeria may be tempted to raise interest rates to slow demand and encourage savings. Also, with the harvest season commencing and the implementation of waivers on tariffs & duties on some essential imported food items, food prices are expected to drop. The recent mobilization of ten thousand agro-rangers by the Civil Defence Corps to secure farmlands across the country, if effective, is expected to encourage people to return to their farms and, in the long run, increase food production in the country. However, the recent fluctuation in the value of the Naira is likely to impact headline inflation in subsequent months.

While we celebrate the decline in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis and acknowledge government efforts in this regard, it is important to avoid a further decline in the value of the naira because of its multiplier effect. Improving the country’s revenue base and balance of trade by optimizing oil production and diversifying the economy will help achieve this. The government should also provide CNG trailers, lorries, and trucks to ease the cost of transportation farm produce. The government should continue to closely monitor events as they unfold and take proactive measures when needed. It should also adopt a robust monitoring and evaluation mechanism for its policies and programs to ensure objectives are met.

Kenechukwu Aguolu FCA, PMP, CBAP

As I stood at the bus stop at Ogba in Lagos on a hot afternoon, the usual chatter of commuters filled the air. But one voice, laden with frustration and despair, stood out from the rest. A man, possibly in his 60s, lamented aloud, “Since birth, I have never experienced the kind of government-induced hardship that I am passing through under this administration”. His words struck a chord, echoing the sentiments of millions across Nigeria who are grappling with unprecedented economic difficulties widely believed to have being exacerbated by the president’s pronouncement that “Subsidy is gone” on May 29, 2023.

To capture the pulse of the nation, I decided to engage in conversations with others on the streets. What I discovered was a shared sense of disillusionment and hardship that transcends age, occupation, and location.

At the busy market in Ogba, adjacent to the bus stop, a young mother balancing a child on her hip expressed her struggles. “I can barely afford to feed my family,” she said, her voice trembling. “Prices of basic food items have tripled, and my husband’s salary remains the same. We are just trying to survive day by day.”

A taxi driver, who has been in the profession for over 20 years, shared his frustrations as well. “Fuel scarcity and high prices have made my job nearly impossible. I spend more time in fuel queues than on the road. My income has dropped, and I don’t know how much longer I can keep this up,” he lamented, wiping sweat from his brow.

In a similar vein, at Berger bus stop, also in Lagos, a young university graduate lamented his inability to find employment despite his qualifications. “I graduated two years ago, and I have been searching for a job ever since. But with the current state of the economy, no one is hiring. I feel like my dreams are slipping away,” he confessed.

An elderly woman selling fruits by the roadside at Berger shared a poignant reflection on the situation. “I have seen governments come and go, but I have never seen anything like this. We were promised better days, but all I see is more hardship. My children help me out, but even they are struggling,” she said, her eyes filled with worry.

These voices, representative of a nation in distress, paint a picture of an economy that is failing its people. While government officials argue that the current policies are necessary for long-term stability, the immediate impact on ordinary citizens is overwhelming. The soaring cost of living, marked by rising food prices, fuel scarcity, and a depreciating naira, has pushed many into a state of despair.

Without sounding exaggerative in this context, there is no denying the fact that that just as people’s voices are lamentably resonating as a result of the prevailing hunger and hardship in the land so also is the hardship in taking its toll on lives.

The situation, no doubt, is paradoxical, given the fact that Nigeria is a country endowed with vast natural resources and a rich cultural heritage. The fact that Nigeria is richly blessed by God is difficult to grasp as not a few Nigerians are currently grappling with multifaceted socio-economic challenges that are severely impacting on their dreams and lives.

In fact, high levels of poverty, insecurity, and inadequate access to basic necessities have created a perfect storm of hardship that is already manifesting in tragic incidents. A recent heartbreaking case illustrates the severe consequences of these struggles: the tragic deaths of a mother and her five children in Kano after consuming expired cassava flour leaves a sour taste in the mouth, and eyes widely opened in trepidation.

Recently, news broke of a mother and her children tragically dying due to food poisoning linked to consuming expired cassava flour. Reports suggest that the family had resorted to using the flour out of desperation, demonstrating the severe economic constraints many are facing. This heartbreaking incident is a stark reminder of the lengths to which families must go to secure food, often compromising their health and safety.

At this juncture, this writer may not be wrong in his conjecture that any top government official and his supporters who are often blindfolded by partisan politics may choose to blame the dead in this context for emphasized being meticulous, and exhibiting awareness around food safety, forgetting that the broader discussion must address why families are forced to consume potentially hazardous products in the first place.

This incident is not an isolated case but rather a symptom of the larger food insecurity crisis in Nigeria, exacerbated by a multitude of factors including rising inflation, persistent poverty, and inadequate social support systems.

According to the World Bank, nearly 90 million Nigerians live in extreme poverty, and the ongoing inflation has made basic food items increasingly unaffordable. Food prices have been surging, contributing to a situation where many families are left to choose between quality and quantity. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that as of 2023, more than 19 million Nigerians are experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity, particularly in the northern regions of the country.

The burden of inflation extends beyond food; energy costs have also skyrocketed, and unemployment rates remain high, leading to restricted disposable income levels for millions of Nigerian families. As a result, many households resort to low-cost food options, often resulting in dangerous choices.

Consumers are increasingly compromising on the quality and safety of their food to save costs. With the soaring prices of staple foods, like rice, beans, and even cassava, many families have found themselves turned toward substandard or expired food products. Reports have emerged from various states highlighting cases of foodborne illnesses linked to unsafe consumption patterns, reflecting not only a lack of access to nutritious options but also the desperate measures taken by impoverished families to survive.

The health implications posed by dire economic conditions extend beyond food insecurity. Nigeria faces a burgeoning health crisis, with reports of malnutrition and preventable diseases increasing among children and vulnerable populations. The challenge is compounded by inadequate healthcare infrastructure, limited access to clean water, and a lack of essential medical supplies, which further exacerbates the situation.

In fact, the devastating loss of lives due to the consumption of expired foods out of desperation to survive is no doubt a tragic emblem of the hardships faced by many Nigerians today. As the nation contends with rising poverty, food insecurity, and systemic failures, it highlights the urgent need for both governmental and non-governmental intervention to support these vulnerable communities.

Addressing the issues of food safety, economic support, and the provision of basic services is not merely a matter of policy but a moral imperative that requires immediate action to save lives and restore hope. The people of Nigeria deserve better, and it is up to all stakeholders to ensure that such tragedies become a thing of the past, paving the way for a more secure and prosperous future for all its citizens.

In fact, the government’s responsibility is to protect and uplift its citizens, but when policies lead to widespread suffering, one must question the effectiveness of such governance. The voices on the streets, from the elderly to the young, tell a story of resilience being stretched to its limits.

As we navigate through these challenging times, it is essential that the government re-evaluates its approach and prioritizes the well-being of its citizens. The Nigerian people have shown resilience in the face of adversity, but even the most resilient can only bear so much. It is time for our leaders to listen, act, and bring about the relief that is so desperately needed.

Until then, the voices of the people on the streets will continue to resonate, serving as a stark reminder of the harsh realities faced by the citizens of this nation.

SKITS literally crack ribs with laughter. The line separating fact from fiction or faction (fact and fiction) in skits is paper-thin. An instance was a skit cobbled together in Addis Ababa on January 11, 1976 at an OAU Extraordinary Session on Angola. This high-octane skit was documented by General Joe Nanven Garba in his Diplomatic Soldiering (1987). Garba was a Langtang-born Federal Commissioner for External Affairs under Murtala Muhammed and Olusegun Obasanjo. Self-titled ‘Field Marshal’ Idi Amin Dada, the notorious Ugandan despot, was then the OAU chairman. It was also a time when African Heads of State were locked in acrimonious relationships. That conference was where Dada, a title-besotting despot, added “Dr.” to the list of his titles. Present were African leaders whose memories evoke mythical remembrances, like Julius Nyerere, Kenneth Kaunda, Leopold Sedar Senghor, among others.

At some point, Dada interjected Heads of State delivering their speeches. He said he was so impressed by the quality of their speeches that they could all jolly well award themselves doctorate degrees! Nyerere, with his fabled contempt for Dada, momentarily stood up. There was pin-drop silence. The Tanzanian president said he knew Dada’s propensity for awarding himself ranks and titles and that since he had already awarded himself a ‘Field Marshal,’ it would not be out of place for him to add ‘doctor’ to the list. However, said Nyerere, if Dada did, the Ugandan despot would be “a confused doctor.” This provoked general laughter and applauses. Confused on what the laughter was about, Dada himself enthusiastically joined the applauses, until an OAU official whispered the import of Nyerere’s comment to him. Idi Amin then suddenly stopped clapping and immediately wore the demeanour of a wooden mask. Talking about skits in high places!

One of the features of a skit is its short duration. Nigeria was shown one last week. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, apparently in a moment of power drunken stupor, sponsored a bill which, from its purport, seeks to backtrack Nigeria towards Dada’s Uganda. When the news came, it looked like a badly scripted skit. The bill, nicknamed the Counter Subversion Bill, sought to punish any actions deemed subversive. Infractions included destruction of national symbols, refusing to recite the national anthem and pledge, defacing a place of worship, undermining the Federal Government, among others. A fine of N5 million, a 10-year prison sentence, or both were suggested recompenses. The Bill has all the trappings of Soviet Russia. Apparently wary of a system-shaking EndSARS protest, the Bill sought to impose a five-year jail term against anyone found guilty of erecting an “illegal road block”, while handing down a three-year sentence for “disobeying constituted authority”.

If you know how the Nigerian establishment is wired, you will know that Tajudeen was its Man Friday sent to test the waters. Or that Abbas is a groveling, uncritical legislator ready to lick the spittle of his sponsors. A river you intend to swim in is first tested with a thrust of the foot (Bíbì làá bi odò wò ká tó wòó). Though Abbas withdrew his hand from the pot of soup that enticed him badly after widespread criticisms, Nigerians must seek to find out what lured the Speaker into this coup against the people in the first instance. It is evident that our leaders fancy travelling down the road of infamy and autocracy. Surely an untidy attempt at cracking down on voices of dissent, as Thomas Jefferson admonished the world – which critically holds true for us as Nigerians – the price of liberty is eternal vigilance. The government of today has shown that it adores the tail of the tiger of anti-free speech and has been fiddling with it.

This was why elders counsel that a wolf that does not have faith in the size of its own anus should run away from big bones (Bí ìdí ìkokò kò bá dáa lójú, kìí gbe egungun mì). Here, Nigerians swallow bones weightier than their wolf’s anus. It is same reason why okra plants are never allowed to grow taller than the Onírè – its farmer. In saner climes, this is the creed. The okra plant that grows majestically taller than the farmer is forcibly plucked or gets its head bowed. The Onírè is the symbolism of an all-powerful state. It is equipped with the power of coercion and sometimes, empathy. If you run foul of the Onírè, it seldom gives room for any excuses. However, in recent times, when some events happen in Nigeria, most times, you need to subject your flesh to a painful pinch. Are they drama, real life events or merely surreal? Or, perhaps, we are audiences watching a grotesque skit, with its panoply of unreal humour and tear-provoking amusement?

Nigeria was treated to another skit last week. Ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo had hosted some members of the House of Representatives. There, he alleged that Nigerian legislators fix their salaries. If you ask Nigerians to name one institution they perceive as a colossal burden to them and a waste, it will be the National Assembly. Indeed, Nigerians believe that if Nigeria must move forward, an urgent caesarian section must be done to prise off the two parliaments’ humongous drain on Nigeria’s resources. However, RMAFC promptly denied Obasanjo’s allegation.

As far as Nigerians were concerned, RMAFC was making the usual Nigerian establishment shock-horror skit. Its skit was woven round an apparently misleading claim that each of the 109 senators earns ₦1,063,860 salary and allowances per month. It never talked about the allowances. Senate spokesman, Yemi Adaramodu, also curated a more laughable skit. The Red Chamber only collects salary allocated by the RMAFC, goes his ribaldry. It beggars belief that the Godswill Akpabio senate would embark on this junket of untruths. Shehu Sani, who represented Kaduna Central, in an X tweet, once affirmed that he, alongside his senate colleagues, got paid N13.5 million monthly in “running cost,” as well as a N750,000 monthly salary. Last Wednesday, in an interview with the BBC Hausa Service, the lawmaker representing Kano South, Senator Sumaila Kawu, contrary to Adaramodu and RMAFC, disclosed that while he collects about N1m as salary, his total take-home was N21million. These are different from the N100 billion constituency project funds. Nigerians know that these in-parliament-for-business lawmakers control awards of contracts for the projects.

There is also this shock-horror skit that has refused to leave Nigerians’ minds. It was the drama between the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and erstwhile governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello. Bello has been slammed with a 19-count charge bordering on alleged money laundering, breach of trust and misappropriation of funds to the tune of N80.2 billion. A huff and puff by the EFCC chairman, Ola Olukoyede, followed. Olukoyede immediately vowed to resign his job if he didn’t bring Bello to justice. The ex-governor, uncharacteristic of his cowardly gut, labeled White Lion, raced like a frightened hare from the grips of justice. Willfully volunteered information revealed that, like an impala running from a cackle of hungry hyenas, the castrated Lion, hitherto holed up in the Kogi Government House. Words from the grapevine say the Lion has escaped the wide and is roaming about in a foreign land. And there is calm and silence on the home front. No one has resigned their job. Everyone is going about their normal business. The whole hue and cry was a mere skit. And we have lived happily ever after.

Last week, both the state and its citizens were entwined in yet another wedlock of comedy. And Nigerians didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. This manifested at the Murtala Muhammed Airport right in Lagos. The aircraft conveying Favour Igiebor, her husband and kids had arrived the Lagos airport from Europe. In a viral video, the world watched agape as the woman, shouting at her husband, tore the hapless man’s Nigerian passport. Torn pieces of the passport were scattered on the airport floor. “I tore it,” she yelled, apparently exasperated. In spite of themselves, buffeted by governmental mis-policies, patriotism took the better of Nigerians who railed at the woman’s unpatriotic action. What kind of domestic anger would escalate to this level of national disregard for Nigeria?

In another viral video, Igiebor justified her action as that of a traumatized and distraught woman suffering the weight of matrimonial yoke. The Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) immediately threatened to arrest Igiebor as destroying the country’s passport was a criminal offence, punishable by a year sentence. A disoriented National Orientation Agency, (NOA) perpetually in a sleeping mode, also immediately sprung up to disown Igiebor’s action.

A few days after, the Mr. Igiebor, Favour’s husband, in another viral video, claimed that the whole passport-tearing episode was a skit. He also claimed that the document his wife tore was not a passport. Since then, mum has been the word from the NIS. If one can correctly profile Nigeria, there will be no consequences for this action. In this Igiebor matter, the world saw a torn document which Favours herself, in moment of spousal anger, affirmed was a torn passport. Why didn’t Mr Igiebor show us the un-torn passport.

Not to worry. This is Nigeria. A shock-horror skit. The skit that Nigeria has become ranges from the ribald to the nauseating. Sometimes, the Onire – the Nigerian state itself – neglecting its awesome powers, becomes the equivalent of an elderly man who strewn corns round his waist. When he is embarrassingly surrounded by chickens, he is scorned as architect of his own shame. In some other skits, Nigerians make selves laughing stocks, abetted by the state. Like Mr. and Mrs. Igiebor.

Another major skit that Nigeria has flaunted without let is our comatose refineries. Their fitting mirror is the Abiku (the dying and given-birth-to-intermittently) Port Harcourt refinery child. In skits, the more you look at Nigeria’s refineries, the less you see. The refinery has undergone so many reverses on its operational dates. This bottomless hole however does not reverse its gobbling of billions of dollars. Mele Kyari, under whom NNPC has ailed and gasped in death throes, is the hero of the shock-horror skit, even as he luxuriates like maggots in a sewer. It is so laughable that the most fitting epithet for Nigeria’s and the Port Harcourt refinery should be Nigeria’s National Refinery Skit.

Then, Nigeria had its most engaging skit ever same last week. A French court had ruled that three Nigerian presidential jets be seized in a long-standing dispute with a Chinese company. The presidency fumed like an injured cobra. And rightly so. The skit in this aircraft seizure is however the allegation that jets which courted national row recently were part of the seizure. In a Nigeria afflicted by presidential-induced excruciating hunger, purchasing jets for Nigeria’s president seemed more urgent than the livelihoods of the suffering people. The allegation had been bandied about for a couple of months now that the presidency had procured the multiple of billion Naira-worth jets surreptitiously and wheeled them to France. Yet, Nigerians are daily encouraged to tighten their belts in national sacrifice. Highly applauded investigative journalist, David Hundeyin, same last week on his X handle, alleged that our president has migrated from the Maybach S-Class known to be the official automobile of Nigerian presidents. Recently, said Hundeyin, our president also procured some armored Cadillac Escalade SUVs. This was a man whom his vice, Kashim Shettima, in another presidential shock-horror skit, claimed lives such an austere life that he goes about with only one wristwatch! The Cadillac SUVs must be worth enough to send hunger packing from the tummies of citizens of a state in Nigeria. The Cadillac, among other features, has in-built gadgets that can withstand attacks from powerful weaponry, including improved explosive devices (IEDs). We are happy for our sybaritic president dressed in borrowed robes by his vice.

Uniting Tajudeen Abbas’ Idi Amin Dada-like Bill, Mr. & Mrs. Igiebor’s attempt to hoodwink the system by falsely labeling a dog we can all see monkey, Tinubu’s seized jets, Port Harcourt’s reversible refinery, legislators’ jumbo salary and Yahaya Bello/EFCC’s ding-dong is absence of national truth. Our leaders are enveloped in shrouds of barefaced lies. The led are not any better. Yet, we collectively desire genuine national development. Our case is akin to that of a man who wants the head of a tortoise and its legs but doesn’t want the animal in its entirety. Nigeria is a joke!

NIGERIA’S second arm of government, the Legislature, is in the eye of the storm again! Tongues keep wagging the National Assembly basically on two issues that keep recurring. The first has to do with its salaries, allowances, emoluments and perquisites. The second is how effectively and diligently it has performed its oversight functions on the Executive arm of government. Many Nigerians are more concerned with the first than the second. Complaints about the humongous take-home of the National Assembly members have always been a sore point for Nigerians who cannot see what service the legislators are rendering to justify their huge pay. Besides, the country is said to be too poor to pay the lawmakers salaries that are far superior to what the developed countries and advanced democracies pay their own law makers. Hence, various derogatory names have been given to our senators and honourables, one of which is ‘legislooters’. With cries of “we are hungry” all over the place, the groundswell of opinion is that it cannot be business as usual for the National Assembly members. But rather than thaw, the coconut leaf of the legislators hardens still. How can the leaders live life to a hilt while preaching to the generality of the people to tighten their belt and accept austerity measures? Why is it that what is good for the goose is not also good for the gander?

The fire of controversy was stoked again by the revelation of a sitting senator that he earns N21m per month – and he is not even a principal officer! Which means that those ones must be earning every month something way ahead of that. A news medium reported the senator thus:

The lawmaker representing Kano South, Senator Sumaila Kawu, has revealed that he earns over N21m monthly as a total take-home package. This revelation is coming barely 24 hours after the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission said that each of the 109 senators in the upper chamber receives a total of N1.06m in salary and allowances per month. The RMAFC chairman, Mohammed Shehu, said this as a form of clarification in response to recent controversies over the real amount each lawmaker earns per month. Based on Shehu’s disclosure, it would mean each lawmaker earns N12.72m in 12 months and the Federal Government incurs a total expenditure of N1.4bn annually on all senators.

A breakdown of their monthly earnings revealed that each Senator collects a monthly salary and allowances of N1,063,860, consisting of a basic salary of N168,866:70; motor vehicle fueling and maintenance allowance, N126,650:00; and personal assistant allowance, N42,216:66. Others include domestic staff, N126,650:00; entertainment, N50,660:00; utilities, N50,660:00; newspapers/periodicals, N25,330:00; wardrobe, N42,216,66:00; house maintenance, N8,443.33:00; and constituency allowance, N422,166:66.

Shehu in the statement noted, “The commission also wishes to use this opportunity to state that any allegation regarding other allowance(s) being enjoyed by any political (or) public office holder outside those provided in the Remuneration (Amendment) Act, 2008 should be explained by the person who made the allegation. To avoid misinformation and misrepresentation of facts capable of misleading citizens and members of the international community, the commission considers it most appropriate and necessary to request Nigerians and any other interested party to avail themselves of the opportunity to access the actual details of the present remuneration package for political, public and judicial office holders in Nigeria published on its website: www.rmafc.gov.ng. However, Senator Kawu… disclosed that although his monthly salary is about N1m, his total take-home was N21m, a wide margin from figures quoted by RMFAC.

The scripture says “By the mouth of two or three witnesses every word shall be established” (2 Corinthians 13:1). Kawu, who made the disclosure of N21m salary per month is a sitting senator. The second witness we are calling here today is a former senator, Shehu Sani. Another news medium reported Sani thus:

Amid the controversy over the monthly earnings of federal lawmakers, Senator Shehu Sani has maintained that he received N13 million as a member of the 8th Senate while current members of the 10th Senate receive N21 million monthly. The revelation by the former lawmaker, who represented Kaduna Central in the 8th Senate, followed the stance of the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) that Senators earn N1 million each. Sani… insisted that the RMAFC is being economical with the truth.

He said, “I was a Senator and I believe I had correct knowledge about what actually happened at that time and I believe (it) is what is (still) happening now. Well, RMAFC was just playing with figures, they were (not) specific in saying this is the salary of Senators and then they went on to give a breakdown of N20 million, which they said was what every Senator earns in four years. But I think they are being economical with the truth and I think I understand their fears in terms of telling the truth when they know what is actually happening.

…I was going through the papers and I saw a statement credited to one of the Senators from Kano, Distinguished Senator Kawu Ismaila, who confirmed what I said about Senators, particularly of this set (10th Senate), receiving up to N21 million monthly. During my time, I was in the Senate and I was pricked by my conscience as an activist who went to the Senate to unveil what has been made secret for over two decades. I believe that taxpayers and Nigerians in general have the right to know how much their legislators are earning and how much they are actually being given. I went on as a serving Senator then to disclose what I received monthly, what was credited into my account at that time and it was N13.5 million. The former lawmaker said he does not believe there is any need to deceive Nigerians or cover up anything. He said since legislators receive public funds, it is necessary for those involved to come out and say it as it is.

It remains now for us to hear from the horse’s mouth, as they say. What is the Senate’s response to these allegations?  It’s spokesperson, Yemi Adaramodu, was reported thus:

The Nigerian Senate, on Thursday, debunked reports that lawmakers in the upper chamber of the National Assembly receive ₦21 million monthly as salary and allowances. The Chairman, Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs, Senator Adeyemi Adaramodu, made this clarification in a statement in Abuja. According to him, running costs, as mentioned by Senator Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila, is not peculiar to the National Assembly, and neither is the mentioned amount a personal emolument for any Senator. The explanation follows the disclosure by Sumaila, who represents Kano South senatorial district of Kano State in the National Assembly, that Senators get ₦21 million monthly each as allowances and running costs….

The disclosure generated fresh controversy over the earnings of Nigerian lawmakers amidst the allegation by former President Olusegun Obasanjo that members of the National Assembly fix bogus salaries and allowances for themselves in contravention of extant laws. However, Adaramodu said that “running cost” was quite different from the salary and personal allowances of the lawmakers. He explained that running cost is not personal to any lawmaker but (is) used for official purposes, such as maintaining lawmakers’ Constituency offices and staff, oversight functions and community engagements.

The Senate spokesperson said the lawmakers do not engage in wasteful spending, explaining that “The Nigerian Senate is an Assembly of accomplished and successful professionals, administrators and captains of industries who are not driven by these often-touted egregious pecuniary bits, rather (by) their patriotic zeal in the nation’s quest to breathe life (into) Nigeria’s political and socioeconomic dry bones.”

Adaramodu said the Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Allocation Commission (RMAFC) has already clarified and disclosed the monthly salary of lawmakers in the country and all other figures apart from what the commission declared should be ignored. “For the umpteenth time, the Senate is compelled to react to the obsolete allegations of a phantom salary and personal emoluments spuriously credited to Senators monthly. The Revenue Mobilization and Fiscal Allocation Commission, the agency of government that fixes political officials’ salaries and allowances, has duly disclosed the monthly personal take-home of Senators. However, all arms of Government and their personnel, Governors, Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, Directors-General, State Commissioners, even Boards and parastatals, including local government councils, run their activities with running costs and the National Assembly is not an exemption.

“Thus, the money referred to by Senator Kawu Sumaila is neither his salary nor personal allowance. It’s for the daily running of offices by Senators and other attached statutory officials. It equally provides funds for Constituency office staff. It is also for oversight functions and community engagements. This fund is not static and is provided for in the annual budget. Such funds are retired by relevant officers after being used for official purposes and proof of genuine expenditure (provided). It’s not a personal allowance or salary of the legislator.

“The National Assembly receives about one percent of the federal budget and has never exceeded this, even when the non-availability of funds (was not) pervasive. The Nigerian Senate is an Assembly of accomplished and successful professionals, administrators and captains of industries who are not driven by these often-touted egregious pecuniary bits; rather, by their patriotic zeal in the nation’s quest to breathe life into Nigeria’s political and socioeconomic dry bones,” he said.

From the above, it can be deduced that the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission is the one that is being economical with the truth. Each senator’s “take-home”, to adopt Senator Kawu’s terminology, is light years ahead of the measly sum of N1.06 million being put forward by the RMAFC. Kawu and Sani’s testimonies corroborate each other. They are eye witnesses and their accounts are authentic eye witness accounts. In fact, whatever we hear from them can be taken as having been heard from the horse’s mouth. They are witnesses of truth because they are beneficiaries of the humongous perquisites in issue and cannot be said to harbour malice or have sinister or ulterior motives to paint the Senate in bad light.

Besides, Adaramodu did not in any way debunk the assertions that the senators of the 10th Senate earn the N21 million or more that Kawu averred to; he only said the amount was not meant as personal salaries and allowances for senators. I have no problem understanding that. I also perfectly understand – and sympathize – with the National Assembly that while all eyes are trained on it, other arms and tiers of government; agencies, ministries, departments and parastatals engage in similar  or even worse corner-cutting than the legislators but who get away with blue murder in broad daylight. Why scapegoat the National Assembly, then? They have a point there; don’t you think? But that there are bigger rogues elsewhere does not vitiate your own bad conduct!

What the National Assembly should do to exculpate itself once and for all from its bad public image is to be open and transparent with its members’ salaries and allowances, from the Senate president/Speaker of the House of Representatives to the principal officers and other members. As it is, all the allowances and salaries meant for this or that and funds for constituency activities may be what some senators and honourable members pull together and siphon into their own pocket, which should not be so. Until the National Assembly comes to the open and is transparent in its affairs, it will continue to carry the odious reputation of an insensitive arm of government and a cesspit of corruption.

Every story has two sides, but when a country’s reputation as  a sovereign and an investment destination comes under threat, it calls for immediate concern and action from its citizens and leaders. The recent unfolding of a concerning development has significant implications for Nigeria’s global standing as an investment hub. A Chinese company, Zhongshan Fucheng Industrial Investment Co. Ltd, secured a court order in France following an arbitration award  initiated in 2017, with the Ogun State Government over a contractual relationship  that dates to 2010. The arbitration panel ruled in favour of Zhongshan, stating that “It is clear that Zhongshan is the effective winner in these arbitral proceedings, in that it has proved its version of events is accurate, successfully resisted Nigeria’s jurisdictional and preliminary objections, established a valid claim against Nigeria under the Treaty, and obtained an award for substantial damages.” This is not just a legal victory for the Chinese firm, but a red flag for Nigeria’s global investment reputation that demands immediate attention and action.

This ruling is a significant blow to Nigeria’s absolute sovereign status and the doctrine of sovereign immunity. The order has since been upheld by a US court, which dismissed Nigeria’s sovereign immunity defence in enforcing the $70 million investment treaty award. The US court was scathing in its judgment, asserting that Nigeria had “gruesomely” violated the Chinese firm’s fundamental and commercial rights. This ruling has led to the dramatic seizure of three Nigerian aircraft in France—aircraft that belong to the federal government. The seized jets include a Dassault Falcon 7X, a Boeing 737-7N6/BBJ, and an Airbus A330-243, all stationed at Paris-Le Bourget and Basel-Mulhouse airports.

While initially a dispute between a subnational government and a private firm, this situation has spiralled into a crisis with broader and more severe implications for Nigeria. It raises critical questions about Nigerian subnational entities’ conduct and  the federal government oversight of international contracts.  Can subnational entities enter into agreements guaranteed by sovereign that do not include national assets or support? What level of due diligence should subnational governments observe before they engage in contractual relationship with foreign firms? More importantly, does this case reflect a more profound, systemic issue within Nigeria—a culture that lacks respect for contracts and international agreements?

The case also casts a spotlight on the perceived weaknesses of Nigeria’s institutions, which need more authority or respect on the global stage.

 This perception is troubling and raises the question: do foreign investors lack confidence in Nigerian  institutions ? These are not rhetorical questions but rather pressing concerns that demand a thorough investigation and straightforward answers. The implications are dire, as evidenced by this case, which has resulted in public embarrassment for the country and the potential loss of much-needed funds due to poorly negotiated and managed contractual relationship . A thorough investigation is crucial to restore trust and confidence in Nigeria’s international business dealings.

This situation is not an isolated incident but part of a worrying trend. It calls to mind earlier cases, such as the P&ID arbitration ruling in 2010, where Nigeria was found tardy in a failed gas supply and processing contract. Though this was reversed but it left a scar .  Similarly, in  2019, a UK court awarded an Irish engineering firm $9.6 billion in damages against Nigeria over a failed gas project. In that case, the firm went so far as to instruct its lawyers to identify Nigerian assets worldwide that could be seized to enforce the arbitration award. These incidents paint a troubling picture of Nigeria’s handling of international contracts and the country’s reputation on the global stage.

The ongoing dispute with Zhongshan Fucheng Industrial Investment Co. Ltd is likely to negatively impact Nigeria’s global standing, especially when the country is desperately trying to attract foreign direct investment. This case highlights the often poorly structured nature of Nigeria’s international contracts, where subnational governments and even private companies have found ways to entangle the federal government in their questionable and often poorly thought-out deals. The result is a further tarnishing of Nigeria’s already fragile reputation. Following the Dangote saga where there is perception that Nigeria could not treat its own businesses fairly ,this is another blow to Nigeria’s global image . The country already suffers from a prevalent negative perception regarding the sanctity of contracts, largely due to inconsistent adherence to contractual obligations. The federal government’s failures to uphold these commitments, particularly at the subnational level, only exacerbate the problem. This disregard for the sanctity of contracts contributes to a growing cynicism about Nigeria as a reliable destination for investment and business. It is crucial to uphold agreements and respect contracts to restore Nigeria’s reputation.

The symbolism of this saga is still visible to us. Beyond the immediate damage to Nigeria’s national reputation, this incident brings broader issues related to leadership, business ethics, and the sacrosanct nature of contracts. It underscores the importance of continuity in government—where all governments inherit their predecessors’ assets and liabilities and should not cancel contracts arbitrarily. Moreover, this situation highlights the critical need to build solid, responsive, and trustworthy institutions that command respect locally and internationally and can handle the complexities of international business contracts. It is an anomaly that contracts involving Nigerian subnationals or firms and foreign businesses always situate arbitration in foreign lands when local institutions are available and ostensibly capable of fulfilling this role.

This incident lays bare Nigeria’s leadership challenges and sensitivity to foreign investment disputes. If not resolved diplomatically and swiftly, such disputes could severely jeopardize Nigeria’s diplomatic relations and economic credibility.  I am happy the minister of foreign affairs is rising up to the challenge. The needless dispute between a negligent subnational entity and a private firm, which has dragged sovereign assets into the fray, could strain diplomatic ties between Nigeria and China. Recall that the root of this matter is the bilateral investment treaty signed by Nigeria and China in 2001 and since then we have seen progress in trade and investments on both sides. This recent imbroglio is  particularly concerning at a time when the federal government is expending billions of naira to woo foreign investors. The dispute has cast a stark light on the nature of business transactions in Nigeria, revealing the many dangers they pose to investors, especially when projects collapse or are mismanaged. The potential loss of much-needed funds due to poorly negotiated and managed  contractual relationship   is a stark reminder of the economic impact of such disputes.

The recurring cases of Chinese companies taking advantage of Nigeria’s open business doors are increasingly worrisome. It is imperative that the federal government, particularly the Office of the Attorney General, take a closer look at international contracts entered by state governments to insulate sovereign assets from exposure. This situation raises significant constitutional questions: does the federal government have the constitutional authority to regulate or even approve contracts entered by subnational entities?

The ongoing dispute between Zhongshan Fucheng Industrial Investment Co. Ltd and the Ogun State Government, which has now implicated Nigeria’s sovereign assets, is a stark reminder of the importance of upholding the sanctity of contracts and ensuring due diligence in international agreements. The federal government must take decisive action to safeguard Nigeria’s reputation as a reliable investment destination. This includes strengthening institutions, enforcing contractual commitments, and resolving disputes through diplomatic channels. Please government must  address these issues to ensure  good diplomatic relations and  not deter much-needed foreign investment, compromising Nigeria’s economic future.

The time has come for Nigeria to reassess its approach to international business dealings. This reassessment must focus on restoring confidence among global investors, ensuring that all levels of government adhere to international best practices, and building institutions that are strong, respected, and trusted by domestic and international stakeholders. Nigeria can repair its reputation and safeguard its national interests in an increasingly interconnected global economy by doing so.

This incident is more than just a legal or diplomatic issue; it is a wake-up call for Nigeria to realign its policies, practices, and institutions with global business demands. The country cannot afford to continue this path of negligence, laxity  and mismanagement. As this case has shown, the cost is far too high—not just in monetary terms, but in terms of Nigeria’s global standing, credibility, and future prosperity. It is imperative that Nigeria learn from this episode, take corrective action, and ensure that such incidents are not repeated in the future. The nation’s economic future and place in the global community depend on it. As for the foreign business sharks that aim to reap off Nigeria’s through dubious business deals  that cannot hold waters, it is time we isolate and deal with them and their Nigerian companions. Convicting some of these criminals will serve as a deterrent to others and help reduce such incidents in Nigeria.