Delta Receives Highest Allocation Of N23b For June

Seven of the nine oil mineral producing states left Abuja yesterday with a combined cheque value of N70.408 billion being their allocation from the June 2023 revenue distributed by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) on Thursday.

Delta State topped the chart with N23,261,593,427.19, according to the breakdown of the allocations obtained.
Rivers State trailed with N13,192,309,721.26,followed by Akwa Ibom State with N12,745,539,724.44 and Bayelsa State with N12,394,003,050.48.

Edo State got N3,400,607,899.11; Ondo State N2,968,156,301.71 and Anambra State N2,386,453,498.68.

The remaining oil producing states of Abia and Imo received N1,577,804,645.31 and N1,386,364,304.46 respectively.

Amongst the non-oil producing states, Borno received a net allocation of N2,215,429,199.27 after N48,678,953.74 foreign loan outstanding against it, among other deductions, was taken from its gross allocation.

Kano, after all deductions had been made, went away with N2,064,843,128.93 and Benue, N2,032,809,639.68.

But it was bad news for Lagos State which returned empty handed and even still has an outstanding debt of N79,711,202.02 to pay.

It was gathered that the state has an outstanding foreign loan of N2,637,685,277.47 that was deducted from its gross allocation, leaving its account with the FAAC in the red.

Gombe State received a net allocation mandate for N423,957,430.32 after deductions, and Bauchi N454,931,200.03.

In respect of local governments’ gross allocations for the period, Kano with 44 local government areas received a N3,278,667,445.50; the 34 local governments in Katsina got N2,496,105,333.87; Oyo with 33 local government areas was credited with N2,214,857,377.95; and Kaduna with 23 local governments pocketed N2,059,353,609.99.

The eight local government areas of Bayelsa State received N697,768.037.05;Gombe with 11 local government received N891,129,511.36; the 13 local government areas in Ebonyi have N965,808,866.31 to share while the 16 in Ekiti have N1,016,396,834.97.

The six Area Councils of the Federal Capital Territory received N521,264,251.82.

The document also revealed that the last time the FAAC had any information regarding certified subsidy claim was on the 20th of June, 2018 when N4,026,369,698,361.67 was paid out for “certified subsidy claims by PPPRA from January 2010 to December 2015.

Besides, the document says the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is withholding N12,841,029,760,113.20 from 17th May 2012 to 19th July, 2023.

During the Thursday meeting the FAAC agreed to share only N907 billion of the June 2023 distributable revenue of N1.9 trillion.

A sum of N790 billion was saved and the rest used for statutory deductions.

The savings, it said, “will complement the efforts of the Infrastructure Support Fund (ISF) and other existing and planned fiscal measures, all aimed at ensuring that the subsidy removal translates into tangible improvements in the lives and living standards of Nigerians.

The Nation learnt that the Federal Government had convinced the governors to save N1 trillion of the June revenue and get FAAC to share the remaining N900 billion in order not to saturate the economy with cash and further worsen inflation.

Sharing the whole N1.9 trillion, the Federal Government argued, would also put additional pressure on the naira and whittle down the desired impact of any palliative measures to cushion the effects of subsidy removal.

The legal team of the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic party, Atiku Abubakar, has replied President Bola Tinubu whose lawyers recently told the Presidential Election Petitions Court sitting in Abuja that Atiku tendered an expired Guinean passport allegedly belonging to Tinubu to seek the latter’s disqualification as President.

Atiku’s lead counsel, Chris Uche SAN, in his final written address dated July 20, accused INEC of misusing huge funds allocated for the 2023 elections.

According to Atiku, Tinubu’s alleged criminal conviction and his dual citizenship are public knowledge and should have been enough reasons for INEC to disqualify him.

Recall that Tinubu’s team led by Chief Wole Olanipekun SAN, did not concede or deny that the president has dual citizenship in their written address.

Nevertheless, Olanipekun argued that even if a Nigerian holds dual citizenship, the laws of the land do not stop such a person from vying for the office of President.

Recall that Chris Uche SAN had on June 25 presented Atiku’s 27th witness, Barrister Mike Enahoro Ebah (PW27), to prove that Tinubu is a dual citizen of Nigeria and Guinea prior to the polls, among other allegations.

Some of the documents he tendered include Tinubu’s certificate of service from Mobil Nigeria Plc, alleged extract of his Guinean passport as well as particulars submitted to INEC when he ran as Lagos state governor.

But giving a final response to the tendered passport (extract), Olanipekun argued that the Guinean passport which the PDP witness claimed to have downloaded from the internet shows that the passport expired in 2020.

Olanipekun told the court that Atiku planned to embarrass his client with an expired document.

“It is all a guesswork, aimed at embarrassing the respondent (Tinubu).

“Assuming without conceding that the respondent was ever issued that passport, it is our further submission that facts relating to citizenship of a foreign country are rooted in the laws of that country, which have to be proved in Nigeria.

“It is submitted further, that even if the respondent has a dual citizenship, which is not conceded, the Constitution does not preclude him from contesting the office of President of Nigeria,” Olanipekun stated.

Replying Olanipekun on that , Uche insisted that with respect to the acquisition of citizenship of Guinea, it remains the case of the petitioners that President Tinubu is not constitutionally permitted to acquire the citizenship of Guinea.

Uche maintained that Section 137 of the 1999 Constitution does not allow a person aspiring to be Nigeria President to acquire citizen of another country.

“The provision of section 137(1) (a) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 (as amended) is very specific a President of the Country, as a symbol and embodiment of the Country, cannot be allowed to declare allegiance to another Country which is the implication of acquiring such a country’s citizenship,” Uche stated, urging the PEPC to disqualify Tinubu on that ground.

On INEC’s claim that it failed to transmit presidential election results in real time due to technical glitches, Uche drew the attention of the court to the testimony of the electoral umpire’s witness, Lawrence Bayode, who said in open court that INEC did not report the glitches to the Amazon Web Services AWS.

AWS is the cloud platform INEC admitted to have engaged to secure the votes cast and uploaded on its portal.

Uche maintained that even though he disagrees that there was a technical glitch on electoral, INEC’s admission that it did not report the issue to either Amazon Web Service or to manufacturers of the technological device, is clear proof that the so-called “technical glitch” was a ruse, unreal, if not self-induced.

“For a project that the Nation committed the sum of over N355 billion, it is unreasonable to expect that the Commission would refuse to report or complain to the suppliers of the devices or providers of the services or hold anyone accountable,” Uche added, faulting INEC Chairman, Yakubu Mahmood for going ahead to announce a winner of the polls when BVAS and IREV were central to the 2023 presidential election in light of the Electoral Act 2022.

He urged the court to cancel Tinubu’s election for substantial non-compliance to the Electoral Act.

A group under the aegis of Forum for Transparency and Accountability in Governance has urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu not to succumb to pressures by any politician with pending allegation of fraud related cases in court or at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, (EFCC) to be appointed into his cabinet in guise of party loyal member.

The call on the President was at the backdrop of the much expected list of Ministerial nominees by the 10th Senate which President Tinubu has a statutory period of 60 days to make the list available to the upper legislative Chamber for screening.

The transparency group in a statement jointly signed by its Convener, Dr Bala Musa Mustapha, Secretary General, Mr Nouel Malama and Director of Publicity, Nafisa Hamid Jika respectively, maintained that President Tinubu should tread with caution and not appoint politicians with questionable character into his cabinet.

The group emphasized that the former Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai should be kept at arm’s length and be isolated from the corridor of power if the present administration should be taken seriously, given that he is standing trial for allegedly embezzling N32 billion revenue from sales of Federal Government Houses between 2005 and 2007 when he was the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory.

The group recalled that Justice Binta Nyako-led Federal High Court ruled on 19th November, 2019, that Malam Nasir El-Rufai lacked powers to stop the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) from investigating and prosecuting him over fraud allegations.

Justice Nyako in her judgement in a suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/60/09 which was filed by El-Rufai where he listed 13 respondents including the EFCC, FG and others, seeking to stop his prosecution, the Court in the celebrated judgement insisted that El-Rufai must account for the whereabout of N32 billion.

The forum maintained that the prosecution of El-Rufai was progressing at the Federal High Court until he became governor of Kaduna State in May 2015 when immunity of office halted it, insisting that now that he is out of office, the anti-graft agency ought to have resumed his prosecution, rather than contemplating offering him a Minister.

The group also added that the prosecution of El-Rufai followed a damning audit report by a World class audit firms; Akintola Williams Deloitte and Aminu Ibrahim & Co, where it was revealed that the sum of N32 billion proceeds of sales of Federal Government Houses is missing.

The statement read: “Any government that pride itself on probity and accountability should not be seen to patronize the likes of the former governor of Kaduna State. It’s in the public domain that Malam Nasir El-Rufai is facing prosecution of N32 billion in Court.

“Also, the former governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is facing rejection over his dirty past involving dollar bribe and what is good for Ganduje should be good for El-Rufai. We hope that President Tinubu will come out clean on El-Rufai issue, while we hope that he should not allow Nigerians to hit the streets before doing the right thing.

The group further called on the EFCC and other anti-graft agencies to rise to the occasion of prosecuting former and incumbent public officers who have pending cases, so that their actions would not be misinterpreted as selected prosecution of corrupt officials of government.

The former governor, Mallam Nasiru El-Rufai had in 2019 approached the Federal High Court seeking the court’s determination whether, as the then Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, he had complied with the guidelines approved by the Federal Executive Council for the sale of Federal Government houses between May 2005 and May 2007.

Meanwhile, Justice Binta Nyako while delivering justice, in a suit no: FHC/ABJ/CS/60/09 ruled that Nasir El-Rufai, cannot stop the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission from investigating him.

In line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has commenced the payment of dividend into the federation account.

The NNPC Limited on Thursday begun the payment of interim dividend and PSC profit oil as part of the N907bn shared by the Federation Account Allocation Committee to the three tiers of government.

The remittance is coming barely two months after the NNPC exited the fuel subsidy shackle following the removal by President Bola Tinubu.

During the FAAC distribution,which was chaired by the Accountant General of the Federation, Dr. Oluwatoyin Madein, the NNPCL remitted N123bn into the coffers of government.

A breakdown of the N123bn showed that the National Oil Company paid N81bn as monthly interim dividend and N42bn as 40 per cent PSC profit oil.

This is in addition to compliance on payment of royalties and taxes.

The payment of dividend by the NNPC Limited clearly shows that the company under the leadership of the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mallam Mele Kyari is moving in a positive trajectory as enshrined in the PIA.

Since he assumed office, Kyari has pursued his Transparency, Accountability and Performance Excellence (TAPE) agenda, a five-step strategic roadmap for NNPC’s attainment of efficiency and global excellence.

Kyari, during the inauguration, had said pursuing TAPE was the only way to turn around the corporation and make it competitive.

Under the roadmap, the Transparency component of the agenda was aimed at maintaining positive image, share values of integrity and transparency to all stakeholders, while the Accountability segment of the campaign is to assure compliance with business ethics, policies, regulations and accountability to all stakeholders.

In terms of the two-prong item of Performance Excellence, Kyari had said the idea was to entrench a high level of efficiency anchored on efficient implementation of business processes which would also emplace an appropriate reward system for exceptional performance among the workforce.

During the FAAC meeting held in Abuja on Thursday, N907.054bn total distributable revenue was shared to the three tiers of government

This comprised distributable statutory revenue of N301.501bn, distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N273.225bn, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N11.436bn and Exchange Difference revenue of N320.892bn.

In June 2023, the total deductions for cost of collection was N73.235bn and total deductions for savings, transfers and refunds was N979.078bn.

The balance in the Excess Crude Account (ECA) was $473,754.57

The communiqué stated that from the total distributable revenue of N907.054bn; the Federal Government received N345.564bn, the State Governments received N295.948bn and the Local Government Councils received N218.064bn. A total sum of N47.478bn was shared to the relevant States as 13% derivation revenue.

It stated that gross statutory revenue of N1.152trn was received for the month of June 2023. This was higher than the sum of N701.787bn received in the previous month by N451.134bn.

From the N301.501bn distributable statutory revenue, the Federal Government received N146.710bn, the State Governments received N74.413bn and the Local Government Councils received N57.370bn. The sum of N23.008bn was shared to the relevant States as 13 per cent derivation revenue.

For the month of June 2023, the gross revenue available from the Value Added Tax (VAT) was N293.411bn. This was higher than the N270.197bn available in the month of May 2023 by N23.214 billion.

The Federal Government received N40.984bn, the State Governments received N136.613bn and the Local Government Councils received N95.629bn from the N273.225bn distributable Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue.

The N11.436bn Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) was shared as follows: the Federal Government received N1.715bn, the State Governments received N5.718bn and the Local Government Councils received N4.003bn.

From the N320.892 billion Exchange Difference revenue, the Federal Government received N156.155bn, the State Governments received N79.204bn, the Local Government Councils received N61.063bn and the sum of N24.470bn was shared to the relevant States as 13 percent mineral revenue.

According to the communiqué, in the month of June 2023, Companies Income Tax (CIT) recorded tremendous increase.

The last time we checked, Lagos State was supposed to be the ancestral home of our President Bola Tinubu. Some dispute that, insisting he is from Osun State. But none, to the best of my knowledge, has ever linked himto Ogun State. Yet, it seems the gods of Ogun River and the ancient gods of Lisabi have adopted him as their son. Ina mystical and deeply spiritual way, Ogun State played a prominent role during the run-in to the Presidential election.

It was during one of his ‘pilgrimages’ to Ogun State, that he received the courage and clarity to make the famous ‘Emilokan’ statement. To the uninitiated, I confess I am one of them, that statement seemed a sign of a meltdown – an apocalyptic meltdown to quote a mutual friend. As the English would say ‘What was he smoking? Or sniffing? Or drinking’? It however turned out instead to be a coded message to those he had a pact with, a succession pact of sorts. I still have a problem with the ‘Emilokan’ statement though.

It suggests entitlement. It suggests a high-stake, turn-by-turn alliance, it suggestshorse trading with Nigeria as the prize. Whatever. Those to whom the coded message was sent understood it.The message unlocked their hearts. It reminded them that the time to pay back some I.O.Us for old favours and promises was nigh. As a result, the many obstacles strewn on his path during the journey to the party’s primary began to clear. He won the primary with a clear margin. It was an important victory no doubt, but not the main prize.

The Kingmakers and pretenders to the throne would however not let go easily. They threw everything including the kitchen sink to stop him from attaining the much coveted crown. He too counter strategized, stoking the discord within the main opposition party. When the odds were mountingand it seemed the anti-people policies of the ruling party were meant to cause disaffection among the electorate towards him, he made another ‘pilgrimage to Ogun State.

Again, he received courage and clarity to pitch a fight with some State and non-State actors in the presidency. After all, ‘if the gods cannot help you, they should leave you as you are’ according to the saying among his people. (Orisa bi o le gbe mi, se mi bi o se ba mi). It was there that he denounced the contrived fuel scarcity and the currency swap. (‘Whether you hide fuel or hide money, we will vote and we will win’ he said). It worked, again. Immediately after the statement, help came from some powerful State actors and the strictures were eased. He did not exactly coast to victory thereafter but he did enough to win the coveted crown.

After a month in the saddle as President, it was time for another ‘pilgrimage’ to the Ogun gods. This time it was a celebratory one. The race has been won and it was proper to thank the gods. After all, gratitude is the food of the gods. But this didn’t stop discerning minds and attentive ears from expecting another defining statement; another moment of courage and clarity. What I heard though was a little disconcerting. It was self-adulation. Like a lizard which, after performing a feat, nods its head as if to say ‘if no one praises me, I will praise myself’.

In the case of the President, many Nigerians had praised the courage and clarity he had shown in the past month to take difficult decisions. He didn’t need to praise himself and in the process, throw some brickbats at his predecessors as if they were weaklings. Removal of fuel subsidy was a decision whose time had come. Simple. It wasn’t that much a question of weakness or courage any longer. After all, the three main presidential aspirants promised to remove the subsidy.

Eight, ten years ago,it was a different proposition and we all know the side he was on and the role he played during the subsidy removal agitations at the time. Besides, it is not the time to gloat for as long as the consequences of subsidy removal have not been addressed let alone, ameliorated.(And if he doesn’t do something soon to ease the growing hardship in the land, he might need another visit to the gods of Ogun State).

But what jarred my listening ears was the absence of inclusion in his Ogun State speech. Most leaders would use the ‘royal we’ when referring to policy decisions and projects. It is deferential. It is inclusive. What I heard in places was the pronoun ‘I’ which to me sounds exclusive, arrogant and even imperial. Worse, it suggests a dictatorial, rather than a collegiate mentality which is contrary to what I hear about him. Everybody knows where the buck stops in the presidency and Nigeria needs a strong President at this time who will have the courage of his conviction and be able to resist the self-serving demands of Kingmakers.

President Bola Tinubu scaled many hurdles on the way to the presidency. Outside the court, the last important hurdle now is himself. The times call for simplicity. They call for empathy. I don’t see enough of both. As necessary as they have become, his major policies in the past month are painful. They have further depleted the already meagre earnings of the people. That is the truth and they in no way call for chest beating of any kind. The purpose of governance is to raise the living standard of the people in a secure environment. Until that is done- and the welfare needle begins to inch northwards- the times call for sobriety and self-effacement, not hubris. It is certainly not the time to preen.

Liverpool legend, Graeme Souness has predicted the position Chelsea will finish next season on the Premier League table under their new manager Mauricio Pochettino.

Chelsea finished in the second half of the Premier League table last season.

The Blues will not play European competition this 2023/24 season.

However, Souness, who believes the 2023/24 season will be difficult for Pochettino, expects Chelsea to maintain the same position this season like last term.

“It’s a very difficult job for the manager at Chelsea this year,” Souness told the Sky Bet Fan Hope Survey.

“I look at that club, and the direction they’ve gone – it just seems to be a mismatch of players that were available and very expensive.

“Chelsea was paying a premium, because of their reputation and standards. I don’t see them doing any different than they did last year.”

[DailyPost]

Betty Anyanwu-Akeredolu, wife of the governor of Ondo, has shared the photograph of her husband in a medical facility amid death rumours.

Betty posted the picture on Friday across her social media handles.

The picture shows the ailing governor sitting on a motorable chair while his wife posed beside him. The background of the picture shows the picture may have been taken in a medical facility.

“Aketi dey kampe!. Victory for us!” Betty captioned the picture.

Coincidentally, today is the 67th birthday of the Ondo governor, who was born on July 21, 1956.

Earlier, Akeredolu posted a picture on his Twitter handle to celebrate his 67th birthday.

“Which of the Favour of the Lord can I deny? Chapter 67. To God be the Laud, Honour and Glory!!!” the Ondo governor tweeted.

Over the past few weeks, the health status of Akeredolu has been making the headlines.

Akeredolu had embarked on a 21-day leave on June 7 and was expected to return on July 6.

The governor had directed Lucky Aiyedatiwa, his deputy, to act in his stead. However, Akeredolu wrote to the state house of assembly, extending his medical leave when he did not resume work at the initial date of resumption.

Meanwhile, Abdullahi Adamu, the former national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), stirred another controversy when he said Akeredolu was hospitalised and in a state of “extreme incapacity”.

The Ondo government had countered Adamu and assured residents of the state that the governor will resume duties soon.

[NationalDaily]

Hinata Miyazawa scored twice as former champions Japan smashed Women’s World Cup newcomers Zambia 5-0 in a rampant start to their campaign on Saturday.

Japan were a class above the 77th-ranked Africans, creating a slew of chances with their sharp movement and passing in a performance that will have the tournament heavyweights on alert.

Three of the goals came through sweeping upfield movements as Japan scored more than twice in a World Cup game for the first time since the 2011 tournament in Germany, when they lifted the title.

Midfielder Miyazawa bagged her first midway through the first half from an Aoba Fujino assist to put the Nadeshiko a goal up at the break.

Mina Tanaka doubled the lead from Jun Endo’s cross, bringing some relief to the forward, who found the net twice earlier in the match, only to have both strikes ruled out by belated offside rulings.

Tanaka turned provider for Miyazawa’s second goal and Endo drilled home the fourth in front of a crowd of 16,111 in Hamilton.

Substitute Riko Ueki scored the final goal from the penalty spot after she was brought down by goalkeeper Catherine Musonda in the final minute of stoppage time.

It resulted in a second yellow card for Musonda, whose replacement Eunice Sakala made a spectacular save from the spot but was ruled to have moved too early.

Ueki made no mistake with her second attempt as Japan moved to the top of Group C ahead of Spain, who beat Costa Rica 3-0 in Wellington on Friday.

A youthful Zambian side entered the tournament with high hopes after beating Germany in their final warmup game.

However, the lowest-ranked side at the 32-team tournament didn’t create a single clear chance, capping a miserable week in which key attacking midfielder Grace Chanda was ruled out of the tournament with illness.

[Vanguard]

Data is the new oil, it runs economies, gives sense to policies, and provides the foundation for planning. Data is the mother lode of civilization as we know it. For these and several other reasons, a slap-dap approach to data gathering, preparation, cleaning, storage, and analysis is unacceptable. The recently released headline inflation numbers by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the June 2023 headline inflation rate of 22.79% up from 22.41% in May 2023, smacks of a bold but unusual decoupling of clarity and reality.  While physical blindness is a limitation it does not define success or lack of it, whereas data blindness brings countries, corporations, and people to ruin. 

The inflation figures for June which the NBS in a tweet noted reflected only two weeks of subsidy removal impact have left analysts scratching their heads in confusion as they attempt to comprehend why two consecutive sample data for a month provide a description of the average monthly inflation estimate. Indeed, according to one economist in government circles who requested anonymity because he was not officially permitted to make public comments, ‘We appear to have gotten ourselves in a right old mess. We have chucked credibility out of the window, broadened the fronts for the attack on Nigerian data integrity, and generally made ourselves the butt for drunken pub conversations amongst foreign investors. How do you trust real return adjustments for financial assets, when inflation figures appear to come from somewhere between Pluto and Mars?’, he asked rhetorically. 

According to the public servant, ‘Playing chess with national economic numbers cannot be smart after years of building credibility in our national statistics seen as emblems of institutional integrity, burning all this on the altar of expediency is unacceptable’, he insisted. Indeed, an economist in one of the country’s big four Consulting firms noted that ‘In addition to the conceptual problems associated with two consecutive weeks of no survey data within June, there is a broader problem with the weights assigned to the components of the inflation basket. It was almost completed between 2019 and 2020, but it appears that the review exercise was suspended, and what we see now is Grandma’s shopping list being handed over to her grandchildren.  Few Gen-Zers would be pleased with their grandma’s list of vegetables and fruits, and would be asking, where in heaven’s name is the pizzaz, French fries and chicken?! ‘, the analyst insisted that even a review of the country’s inflation basket at the moment may be inadequate as the country has since had a focus-induced recession which could have changed consumer spending patterns. He argued that the composition of the items in the country’s inflation basket needed to be reviewed every five years. 

Reactions have continued to trail the June CPI Inflation report released by the NBS. Although, according to the Bureau, annual inflation rose to 22.79%, a new 17-year high, analysts have been bothered by the integrity of the June print. The numbers, which unexpectedly came in lower than the 25% earlier forecast by several economists, failed to capture the impact of the removal of the PMS subsidy. This decision President Bola Tinubu announced in his inauguration speech at the end of May. Analysts had pencilled in higher inflation on the back of a 150% increase in PMS prices, a 32.7% y-o-y rise in Broad Money to N65trn and a 45% devaluation of the Naira. 

In this light, the importance of credible data, according to stakeholders, cannot be over-emphasized; the country is at a point where it is courting foreign investors to unlock opportunities in critical sectors, and this becomes difficult where the integrity of official data is in question. Independent estimates of inflation range between 40 and 45%.   But the reason why the recent numbers have been widely criticized is a statement published by NBS through its social media handle on Twitter. The statement, which prompted criticism by economists and statisticians, suggested that ‘the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers may not fully capture the impact of the fuel subsidy removal and the unification of the exchange rate. According to the Bureau, this is because the data collection for computing the rate for the reference month typically stops around the middle of the month, meaning that the June numbers only reflect approximately two weeks of the policy impact on consumer prices.

While the NBS statement seemed to have been aimed at saving face, it did very little to salvage the institutional reputation. This is because even a two-week survey should have captured the 150% increase in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) oil or petrol. While it is understandable that subsequent months would more fully capture the rise, it would typically take between 3 and 6 months for the impact of the price adjustment to be fully absorbed by the economy, the initial impact is expected to be greater than as presented by NBS. Moreso, analysts believe that a 28 basis point increase in headline inflation (Y-O-Y) and a seven basis point decline in monthly core inflation more than underestimate the combined impact of all of the price changes which occurred in June, namely a 40% increase in import duties, Naira devaluation and the PMS subsidy removal.

The choice of the first two weeks in June 2023 is difficult to rationalize. What seems to be a newly introduced approach by the NBS has served by default or design to underestimate inflation. Moreso, it neither captures the increase in the ex-depot price in the final week of June nor grasps the removal of value added tax (VAT) exemption on diesel which kicked in around the same time. The approach distorts the reality of a significant indicator. Inflation numbers not only guide the inflation-adjusted returns expected by investors, but it also meant to paint an accurate life picture of the cost of living of households, the operating cost of businesses, and the project completion cost of the public sector. When inflation numbers are underestimated, reality is altered, and planning is impossible.

The only way inflation rise between May and June 2023 could have been limited to just 38 basis points as contained in the NBS CPI report is if there was a base effect. However, this would not be tenable, as there was no high base effect last year. Moreover, such a base effect would not affect m-o-m figures in such a circumstance. A more substantial base effect last year will also presume that there were factors between May and June 2022 that induced a stronger push than the 200% subsidy removal we saw in June 2023, the like of which is difficult to identify. 

Methodological Mysteries
The composition of the 2003/2004 basket surveyed is outdated and it ought to have been reviewed to reflect the changes in the consumption pattern, likewise, the weights assigned to the 740 items surveyed require a review of reliable sources have it that the process had been initiated two years ago we are unsure of whether this process has been completed. This adjustment becomes even more important given that the country has recorded two recessions in 2016 and 2020. The change in spending patterns and consumption baskets is marked enough to cause a lot of expenditure rationalization. The Bureau’s dysphoric or unhappy estimates may be attributable to its failure to meet global standard practice which requires that the basket ought to be updated each half-decade.

The controversy generated by the NBS estimate of inflation in June is unfortunate but it raises a fundamental question of Data credibility and integrity, a problem which transcends the NBS and extends to all governmental agencies. Credibility is at the heart of proper planning and policy making and when the data is wrong the decisions premised on It would most certainly be erroneous. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets next week for its fourth policy meeting of the year, Analysts believe that inflation has bombed the purpose of the 700bp hike by the MPC since May 2022. The expectation from most analysts is that the absence of a substantive head at the CBN would be a reason why only a cautious rate hike or a hold would be considered at the next meeting.

In the broad scheme of things, June’s inflation numbers still pour rainwater on the MPC’s hopes of moderation of prices and a dovish monetary policy direction. Burying the impact of the depreciation of the naira and subsidy removal on the domestic price index is a lavish indiscretion. 

Awoyemi is the current CEO, Founder and Chairman of Proshare Limited, Nigeria’s foremost financial information hub.