Titus Okunrounmu, a former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) director, has advised President Bola Tinubu’s government to reduce the cost of governance to stem the country’s debt profile.

Mr Okunrounmu, who gave the advice Thursday in an interview in Ota, Ogun, described the list of ministerial portfolios on Wednesday as over-bloated for a country with a huge debt profile.

According to him, funding the nation’s recurrent budget with borrowing does not need many ministers and bloated special assistants, which inevitably must allow for allowances and official vehicles.

“These excess baggage was not projected for in the 2023 federal budget and the revenue estimates could not cover the recurrent budget,” stated Mr Okunrounmu. “In addition, the federal government needs financial discipline to curb corruption in the ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) to reduce debt profile in the country.”

Mr Okunrounmu advised the Tinubu government to redouble its efforts and work against policy somersault to encourage an influx of foreign investors into the country.

(NAN)

A former Kaduna Central lawmaker, Shehu Sani has said the portfolios of the ministerial nominees of President Bola Tinubu is better than his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari.

He insisted that contrary to claims from people that the list favoured the Southwest, it was rather more balanced and fairer than that of Buhari.

He however noted the issue in the list was that the nominees were given the wrong positions.

Speaking via Twitter, he wrote, “Reactions continue to trail the portfolios of the ministers. I have read where some people think that the list favoured the South West.I don’t think so. The list is much more balanced and fairer than that of Buhari. The issue is more about the peg & the hole and not crude nepotism.”

I Thought The Defence Minister Should Be A Retired Military Officer

Meanwhile, Sani has reacted to the portfolio assigned to ministerial appointees by President Bola Tinubu.

Goldennewsng reported earlier that the President in Wednesday, released a ministerial portfolio for nominees confirmed by the Senate a few days ago.

The Nigerian leader appointed former Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike as the FCT Minister. Tinubu also appointed former Governor of Jigawa State, Mohammed Badaru, as Minister of Defence while the immediate past governor of Zamfara State, Bello Mattawale, was appointed Minister of State, Defense.

Reacting, however, to the development via his Twitter page, Senator Sani said the Defence Minister ought to have been someone from a military background.

The former lawmaker opined that the position should have been given to a retired military officer with experience and records of accomplishments.

He tweeted: “In view of the security challenges faced by this country,I thought the Defence Minister should be a retired Military officer with experience and records of accomplishments.That office shouldn’t be just political especially at this time.”

The Federal High Court sitting in Lagos has struck out the “illegal possession of firearm charge” against the suspended Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele. following an application by the Ministry of Justice to withdraw it.

Justice Nicholas Oweibo struck out the charge after holding that the prosecution had the statutory powers to withdraw a charge against a defendant at any stage of trial.

The judge, in his ruling, held that the application filed by the Director of Public Prosecution (DPP), Mohammed Abubakar, seeking the withdrawal of the case is found in Section 108 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA), which empowers him to withdraw the charge and there is no requirement for the application to be in writing.

The defence, through its lead counsel, Senior Advocate of Nigeria Joseph Daudu had argued that the prosecution could not withdraw the charge unless the government purges itself of its disobedience to the court’s order of July 25 granting Emefiele bail.

Justice Oweibo, in a short ruling, condemned the conduct of the prosecution. In allowing the withdrawal of the charge, the judge wondered what good it would do to the defence if the court did not allow the leave.

He said, “The prosecution has shown that they are not law abiding and have no respect for the court. The court cannot force them. What good will it be for the defendant who is in custody? Of what benefit will it be to keep the file in the court’s docket?”

“To stop the embarrassment of the court and to keep its integrity intact, I believe the proper thing is to allow them withdraw the charge. They can simply abandon it and the court will still have to strike it out for lack of diligent prosecution. The application to withdraw is hereby granted.”

Background

The government had accused Emefiele of possessing a single-barrel shotgun (JOJEFF MAGNUM 8371) without a licence, an offence contrary to section 4 of the Firearms Act Cap F28 Laws of the Federation 2004 and punishable under Section 27 (1b) of the same Act.

The defendant was also accused of having in his possession 123 rounds of live ammunition (Cartridges) without a licence, which is contrary to section 8 of the Firearms Act Cap F28 Laws of the Federation 2004 and punishable under Section 27 (1)(b)(il) of the same Act.

The defendant had pleaded not guilty to the charge, a development which made the court grant him bail in the sum of N20 million.

Part of the conditions included an order that the suspended CBN governor should be remanded in the custody of the Nigerian Correctional Services pending the perfection of the bail terms.

However, rather than obey the order, the Department of State Services (DSS) rearrested and kept him in their custody after a scuffle with some Correctional Services officers.

His lawyers had subsequently brought an application seeking leave to serve the bail ruling on the Federal Government, preparatory to filing a contempt proceedings

The Lagos court granted leave to Emefiele to serve on the DSS Director General, Yusuf Bichi, the court’s ruling admitting him to bail.

Justice Nicholas Oweibo specifically granted Emefiele permission to publish the bail ruling, delivered on July 25, in three national newspapers circulating within the court’s jurisdiction.

The court held that the publication through substituted means would be deemed as good and proper service on the prosecutor.

After this was done, the DPP at the Federal Ministry of Justice, Mohammed Abubakar, subsequently appeared before the court seeking to withdraw the charge based on “emerging facts and circumstances” of the case, which he said requires closer investigation.

The DPP said his oral application was brought pursuant to sections 108 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act, 2015.

But the defence counsel, Joseph Daudu (SAN) opposed the move, submitting that the court could not hear the oral application because the prosecution had not complied with the court’s order granting Emefiele bail.

He also argued that the there was no application before the court because the prosecution had not complied with the law and the rules of the court.

He stated, “It must be in writing; I have never heard of an application to withdraw a case without the prosecution filing a nolle prosequi. So I will urge the court that in the interest of justice, its need to prevent this abuse of the legal processes.

“Every application they brought against any citizen of this country under section 174 is a nolle prosequi; the government can not come before the court orally for that; it ought to be by “nolle prosequi”, at the point in term there is no application before the court.

“I urge the court to reject the application and order the learned DPP to continue today’s business,” he said.

“We have an application before the court, which accused the AGF of disobeying the court’s order, ordering that the respondent/ defendant should be remanded in the custody of the Nigeria Correctional Service.

“The court also granted the defendant an order of substituted service to be published in three National newspapers, and after we obtained these orders, they brought an application of stay of execution of the bail, and we say unless they obey that order, the court can not proceed,” Daudu stated.

While responding to the defence arguments, the DPP said nolle prosequi differed from withdrawing a charge; he cited section 108 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Law 2015.

He stated that while Section 107 provides that the application for withdrawal shall be in writing, Section 108 is silent on the mode, it gives the prosecutor the authority to apply to the judge, and our application was made under Section 108.

If the essence of government is the protection of life and properties of citizens, our successive governments, since 1999 should be held responsible for the travails of people of Plateau State. Beyond occasional skirmishes between herders and subsistence farmers, people of Mangu had lived in relative peace with their Fulani settlers until the institutionalisation of reign of impunity by President Olusegun Obasanjo at the onset of the 4th Republic and later by President Muhammadu Buhari and his loyal gatekeepers.

Those indicted by a probe into causes of social dislocations between the two groups during Obasanjo’s presidency were left off the hook, an oversight that was to later lead to reprisal attacks. And while Buhari played the ostrich, those hiding under his government to serve other tendencies went to work. With the pacification of the north-central, MACBAN presented their demand if peace must reign in the country. 

In a statement jointly signed by Salisu Ahmadu, national president and Umar Shehu , national secretary of the body, they perceived the federal government as being unwilling to protect the interest of Fulani in Nigeria, Fulani in West Africa have been invited to raise funds and prepare for war. MACBAN’s northeast Chairman, Alhaji Mafindi Danburam insisted “Open grazing is our culture and you cannot wake up one day and stop me from practicing my culture”. Finally Fulani are prepared for war except the anti-grazing laws by various states are abrogated and replaced with federal government cattle colony policy with Fulani allowed to settle anywhere they desire in line with their culture.

Nigerian stakeholders, the United Nations and Britain appealed in vain that Buhari applied the big stick. Despite the mindless killings of harmless farmers and confiscation of their farmlands while survivors languished in IDP camps, few people if any, were arrested let alone prosecuted.  The impression was that the attackers were invincible.

The president’s visit to Plateau to commiserate with the people brought little relief as his appeal to victims to be good hosts appeared to have only emboldened the attackers.

Nigerians did not get to know the identity of their assailants until Sheikh Gumi’s visit to the killers’ den deep inside Niger’s Tegina forest and Birnin Gwari forest in Kaduna State.  It was from him we learnt the bandits were invited by our own aggrieved vengeance-seeking Fulani compatriots.  It was from governors Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Nasir El Rufai of Kaduna and Aminu Masari of Katsina and Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano that we learnt that the killer herdsmen are mostly Fulani criminals from neighbouring countries who found ‘Kidnapping for ransom’ more rewarding than grazing of cows.

With the over a score recently killed at Farin Kasa and Sabon Gari communities in Mangu Local Council of Plateau State, fatality figure in the last two months has climbed up to 231. The figure for the last three months was put at 346 killed and 18,751 displaced according to Dr. Gideon Para-Mallam of Peace Foundation. Of the figure, about 200 came from Mangu. He also spoke of 2,081 widows, 6,066 orphans inside IDP camps of the affected areas.

In fact, Istifanus Gyang of Barkin Ladi Riyon Constituency at the National Assembly has just confirmed that “over four villages have been added to the 45 that have already been over-run and are under forceful occupation and with thousands of survivals marooned in IDP camps”. 

This perhaps explains why Dachung Bagos, the member representing Jos South and Jos East Constituency in the House of Representatives, is now urging residents to defend themselves. Although under section 14(2) (b) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution, the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. But “in the face of this kind of breakdown in the will and capacity of the government to protect the people and their communities, law-abiding citizens”, he says, “must organize to protect themselves.” In any case, “section 17(2) (b) of the constitution, recognizes “the sanctity of the human person” reinforced by section 33(2) (a) which makes self-defence lawful when undertaken in “defence of any person from unlawful violence or for the defence of property”.

Little relief came from the president’s men. President Buhari’s first minister of defence, Mansur Dan Ali, to reduce tension wanted states to suspend the implementation of their Anti-Open Grazing Laws. His successor  Maj. Gen. Bashir Magashi (rtd. ), speaking against the backdrop of the abduction of 42 people, including pupils, from the Government Science College, Kagara, Niger State wanted Nigerians to defend themselves against bandits and killer herdsmen, perhaps with their bare hands.

Buhari’s government continued to play the ostrich even as experts and students of federalism recommended state police as one way to finding solution to all Nigeria security challenges, given the acquaintance with the people and the terrain.  Northern governors’ initial opposition was initially led by Kano’s Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso who declared “All of us in the Northern Governors’ Forum, probably the 19 of us with the exception of one or two, are bitterly against the issue of state police”.

But even when governors of Adamawa, Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe, Yobe and Borno, whose states were under siege settled for the establishment of state police at the 4th meeting of the Northeast Governors Forum on March 5, 2021, President Buhari who ‘knew what the people wanted without asking them’ shut it down just as he did when the 19 northern governors changed their position.

 The only tepid response to the menace of killer herdsmen regarded as the fourth most deadly violent group in the world came from the National Assembly through Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s ‘National Grazing Reserves Bill’ (seeking grazing routes and reserves), which the Southern Nigeria People’s Assembly (SNPA) described as “an unfortunate elevation of what ought to be private commercial ventures into a national or government business”. It was dead on arrival as many southern legislators who believed it violated principles of federalism and in breach of the Land Use Act insisted ranching remains the best global practice in animal husbandry.

If President Tinubu engaged in misplaced priority of trying to help Nigeriens fight for democracy and the unambitious National Assembly planning to spend N40b on toys called bullet-proof SUVs did not know about the plight of our fellow Nigerians languishing in IDP camps where they sleep on bare floor without mattress or blanket, without access to drugs and with many eating only once a day and sometimes going to bed without food, they can call for two television  documentaries that vividly  brought their plight to Nigerians last Sunday.

If the president’s new security chiefs cannot clear out those who forcibly ejected our compatriots from their homes and farms to allow them return to normal life, begging as a strategy is allowed. He has at his service, Sanusi Lamido (MACBAN patron), Dr Sheik Gumi who enjoys the confidence of criminal herdsmen and of course the Muslim clerics that secured for him a face-saving victory from Nigerien military adventurers last week.

As for our unambitious lawmakers, I am sure after watching the documentary, they cannot but see their lusting over SUV toys by the name of bullet proof cars as infantile behaviour. They might remind their public service counterparts in USA travel by public transport, share flat or sleep in their offices in Washington DC.

Finally if the president and the lawmakers understand our challenges of insecurity, they will know they are running behind schedule in initiating a constitutional amendment to allow for state police.

Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Na­tional Chairman of the All Pro­gressives Congress (APC), has hinted of a blueprint to draw oth­er political parties into a merger agreement with the ruling party ahead of the 2027 election to boost its membership and followership across the country.

Ganduje made the disclosure while fielding questions from jour­nalists on the recent viral photo of the visit of Nyesom Wike, former Rivers State governor, to his (Gan­duje’s) Abuja residence.

While clarifying that he has not yet discussed with Wike, a minis­ter-designate, about him joining the party, the APC national chair­man, however, did not rule out such possibility in the near future.

“You know Wike is an honourable minister-des­ignate, so he came, we discussed because I was looking for him to congrat­ulate him for that, and also he came to congratulate me and we discussed that when he becomes minis­ter fully he will work very hard in order to move the ministry he is given for­ward and he is ready to cooperate.

But we didn’t discuss the issue of his coming to APC or not coming to APC. That issue will arise later.

He, however, expressed hope that the coming of Wike, when it eventually happens, will boost the fol­lowership of the party.

Beyond Wike joining APC, Ganduje disclosed that already a blueprint under­ground is ongoing to bring some of the political parties into a merger agreement to boost the followership of APC before the 2027 gener­al election.

“It will certainly improve the chances of this our par­ty, especially in 2027 and not only that we are coming out with a new blueprint to in­crease the followership of the party and this will in­clude all strata of officials; those who are in APC and those who are in other po­litical parties. I assure you very soon some of the polit­ical parties will even merge with the APC. We are doing that underground.”

Asked if Wike’s min­isterial appointment was not based on the spirit of government of national unity somehow canvased by the APC, Ganduje who received Simon Lalong, Plateau State immediate past governor replied: “But the spirit of national unity does not mean the spirit of one party in Nigeria. Spir­it of national unity means spirit of national compe­tence and spirit of national capacity.”

Earlier, Lalong had ap­plauded the emergence of Ganduje as APC national chairman, noting that as the longest serving political figure in the ruling party, he possesses the experience and temperament to lead the party to success.

“As the National Chair­man, Ganduje was governor. As a matter of fact when we look at his antecedents we always say he is the longest experienced politician that we have within us. Because he is somebody who was very long in civil service, he became permanent secre­tary, commissioner, longest serving deputy governor and became governor”, he narrated.

“So with this kind of ex­perience what else do you need in party matters? So we have confidence in him as he is now here and it is not an issue of one man, anytime he has opportuni­ty he does a lot of consul­tation and we are always available.

“His colleagues who were governors with him are al­ways available for this kind of work. That is why we are rallying around to give him every help so that the party can also succeed.”

[DailyIndependent]

Shafaq News/ISIS-affiliated forces known as "ISIS West Africa" has initiated the relocation of a portion of its troops from Niger to the Nigerian border, a move believed to be driven by apprehensions regarding potential military intervention by the "ECWAS" coalition forces. This development has raised concerns over regional stability.

Citing an insider source, the Nigerian newspaper "Daily Trust" reported that elite fighters from "ISIS West Africa" have commenced a strategic redeployment from their coastal and Niger positions, choosing to halt within the Lake Chad vicinity of Nigeria.

The rationale behind this maneuver is reportedly rooted in the organization's trepidation of potential military intervention by the "Ikewas" coalition, particularly in Niger, coupled with concerns about border restrictions imposed by the country. The ramifications of this strategic shift are viewed as posing significant threats to the overall security and stability of the region.

The "ECWAS" coalition previously issued a stern warning, threatening potential military involvement in Niger, after the toppling of President Mohamed Bazoum and establishing a military council to govern the nation.

In response to these political developments, the "ECWAS" group took decisive actions, imposing sanctions upon the newly formed military council and demanding the reinstatement of Bazoum under the looming possibility of measures, including using military force.

[shafaq]

Around 450 million girls around the world are excluded from sport. But we know that sport teaches vital lessons, from perseverance to resilience, confidence, integrity and teamwork among many others. All of which set young people up for life. And when girls are excluded from sports, they are also excluded from learning these lessons.

This FIFA Women’s World Cup there’s a new team to support that is fighting female exclusion from sport.

To mark the tournament, 180 Amsterdam has partnered with NGO Game of Our Lives to launch a new team, She Has Fire, to encourage everyone to sign up to fight for the inclusion of girls in sport.

Game of Our Lives (GOL) is a gamified impact platform where sports stars take on the role of social activists championing a cause alongside their fans. The She Has Fire team is being led by Nadia Nadim, the Danish footballer, doctor and Afghani refugee and supported by England footballers Nikita Parris and Gemma Bonner, Carson Pickett (USA), Savannah De Melo (USA), Wang Shuang (China), Uchenna Kanu (Nigeria) and Thembi Kgatlana (South Africa). 

The team’s launch is being marked by the creation of a new football kit that highlights the hidden lessons girls learn when they play sport. In short, it’s a lesson plan for the world, that happens to be on a football shirt.

The shirt, and accompanying film, have been created to help support the She Has Fire team; to encourage everyone to sign up, pledge their support and also learn how they can help to ensure all girls can play sport, wherever they are in the world. 

Hidden on the design of the football shirt are the ten sport-centric lessons that every girl should have the opportunity to learn through sport. From a distance, the tiny printed lessons look like the shirt’s pattern, an open book. It’s only when you come up close that you can read each lesson.

Dylan Ingham, co-founder of the Game of Our Lives Foundation said, “The FIFA Women’s World Cup this year is a vital moment for women in sports. We need everyone to join She Has Fire to help us end the exclusion of girls in sport and empower the next generation. Because the lessons girls learn on the pitch enable them to become women who lead off it.”

Kika Douglas, CCO of 180 Amsterdam added, “Stepping onto a field or into a meeting room like you belong there is exactly how you convince your doubters that you do. Sport is an essential part of how young people grow but too often girls are shut out of this space. We’re so pleased to have been able to work with a female-led team to create something that will amplify the issue and encourage people to pledge their support to ending the exclusion of girls in sport.”

The 10 lessons hidden on the shirt are confidence, goal-setting, determination, resilience, mental agility, accountability, integrity, clear communications, teamwork and discipline. These lessons, hidden in plain sight, are a social invitation, designed to raise awareness and encourage people to support the fight to end the exclusion of girls from sport. 

A short film, ‘Lessons’, amplifies the She Has Fire launch by detailing each of these lessons and championing the women who support them. It was directed by Iman Whitfield and produced by Eye Force. An accompanying social campaign features the stories of women who have become leaders by playing sport.

Following this July’s event in Australia and New Zealand, the She Has Fire campaign, and shirts, will continue to carry the message into different parts of the world. 

[lbbonline]

In late July 2023, the presidential guard in Niger overthrew the country’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, and is holding him hostage. More recently, the coup leaders announced they would be trying Bazoum for high treason on the basis of undermining state security. This charge carries the death penalty under Niger’s legal code.  

This coup could undo hard-won gains for democratic governance and regional stability in West Africa. Niger has served as a geographic buffer between terrorist groups and numerous African countries, and it has been a valuable counterterrorism partner for the West. If the military junta that launched the coup is successful, al Qaeda and ISIS affiliates could metastasize across borders, significantly affecting the chances of long-term democratic stability in the area. In response to the coup, the U.S. and European Union should provide support for African-led attempts to restore and maintain peace and security in Niger and the broader region.  

The Familiar Story of Coups in West Africa  

Since the era of independence in the 1960s and 1970s, there have been over 200 attempted coups in West Africa – some lasting hours, others lasting weeks. The most recent successful coup occurred in the summer of 2022 in Burkina Faso. This pattern of coups against leaders, both democratic and authoritarian, is leading to a cycle of long-term destabilization. The fragility in West Africa that has driven these coups mainly springs from corrupt governance, inconsistent foreign involvement, economic instability, and humanitarian disasters. The Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger tri-state area of the Sahel have been particularly affected by these military coups and have suffered the consequences of regional destabilization.  

West Africa’s struggle with power and peace is built on a colonial history perpetrated by Western empires and defined by modern resource exploitation by China and Russia, who boast results-driven support (money, weapons, terrorist elimination) as they pitch and sign contracts built on personal gain. Russia has been found to have, at some level, contributed to the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali and in Burkina Faso. Russia’s influence consists of disinformation campaigns, arms support, and assistance from private military companies. Moreover, when France’s Operation Barkhane ended in Mali, the withdrawal of French forces left a security gap that has been filled by Russian and paramilitary influence. These circumstances have led geopolitics in Africa to pivot on an East-West, post-Cold War line, even though stable peace and equitable economic relations require a different approach. 

Domestic problems often provide more fuel for coups in West Africa. Democracy has remained a superficial endeavor in West African countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Though democratic elections were held in Mali from 1964 until the 2012 Tuareg rebellion and in Niger from 1993 to the most recent coup in 2023, elections often see very low turnouts. In Mali, the last presidential election, voter turnout was around 30%, and in Niger, about 50% of those who met the voting age criteria cast their votes. In addition to low voter turnout, there is also minimal civic participation and few proper judiciary avenues, making any so-called democratic transition a transition in name only. Furthermore, surveys suggest that voter intimidation is at an all-time high, resulting in voters casting their ballots in line with key political elites and keeping them in power for multiple terms. The lack of consistent constitutional norms and peaceful power transfers has primed the Sahel region for political and military coups.  

ECOWAS and the African Union: Forces for Change 

With Nigerian President Bola Tinubu’s new role as chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), there comes a possibility for a reinvigorated, comprehensive, and regionally led approach to promoting peace and stability in West Africa (especially given Nigeria’s leading role in the region). For instance, the ECOWAS intervention in the Nigerien coup – giving leaders of the coup one week to restore Bazoum or face possible military intervention – was a relatively rare move. The last intervention that ECOWAS carried out was in 2016 during the Gambian elections.  

When he was installed as ECOWAS chairman, Tinubu vowed that the cycle of coups in Africa would be put to a halt. Tinubu stated, “We must stand firm on democracy. There is no governance, freedom, and the rule of law without democracy.” Though critics have claimed that this push for democracy comes as Tinubu is losing popularity at home and hopes to garner more favor with the international community, it is nonetheless a legitimate push for democratic practices that the international community should continue to support.  

The African Union has intervened in inter- and intra-state governance issues and conflict across Africa in the past, including when it suspended Guinea from the African Union following a coup in 2019. However, the organization’s strong action needs strong follow-through. Sustained U.S. and international assistance channeled through ECOWAS and the African Union can support such follow-through. Any ECOWAS- and African Union-led efforts to safeguard against instability must prioritize factors that will bolster regional stabilization, including good governance and regional cooperation that extends to the local level. 

Following the Nigerien coup, the African Union and ECOWAS insisted on the reinstatement of the deposed president. Meanwhile, the United States threatened to end support to Niger, and the European Union and France suspended aid and cooperation. This appeared to show a united front between the West and African regional groups in defending democracy and security in a volatile region of a continent rife with autocracy. While it seems unlikely that Niger’s most recent coup will turn into war in West Africa, it is imperative that the European Union and the United States continue to prioritize relations with the African Union and ECOWAS. Optimistically, sanctions and clear stances by neighbors will turn public opinion away from the putschists – giving actors for democracy favor in negotiations likely to happen between ECOWAS and Niger. The Malian military leader’s recent phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin may suggest this united approach by European states, the United States, African Union, and ECOWAS is placing enough pressure on junta-run countries that they are now seeking outside assistance. 

The Militant Threat 

The series of coups in West Africa has opened the door for extremist groups to expand after being pushed out of Iraq and Syria. The lack of government continuity, clear constitutional structures, and proper democratic governance allowed Salafist Jihadist groups to fill power vacuums in the region.  

The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) thrive in the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger tri-state. These groups are connected to other al Qaeda and ISIS outfits. However, Niger has served as a vast geographic buffer between the region’s new terrorist hot zone and North Africa, other West African states, and the Lake Chad Basin. Other states in the region have benefited from Niger’s anti-terrorism partnerships, including Libya, which is still healing; a number of West African states that have or are pursuing constitutional and civilian rule; and Nigeria, the richest and most populous country in Africa. 

Current political uncertainty in Niger – a counterterrorism champion of the region and the West – directly impacts anti-terrorism efforts in West Africa. In consideration of the strength and rate of territorial expansion by ISGS and JNIM, efforts that promote stability must be unwavering and immediate or these jihadist groups will grow at an unprecedented rate. Only a strong and united response from the international community that legitimizes African institutions will discourage coups and the spread of insurgent activities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.  

Freedom from autocratic rule and lack of ramifications for coups directly supports jihadist growth in West Africa. Al Qaeda and ISIS will continue to take advantage of instability in West Africa if Tinubu and/or ECOWAS and the African Union fail to unite West African states and international partners motivated by peace and stability in the region. Poor governance feeds distrust in the state, which feeds ISIS and al Qaeda’s recruitment in the region. In West Africa, recruitment is not founded on the radicalization of youth and other individuals to jihadist ideology but by the grievances these individuals have against their own governments. 

Policy Recommendations  

The conditions that lead to state fragility and political and military coups are dynamic and require a multifaceted approach; however, before the resulting violence is addressed, the root causes of that fragility should be addressed. For there to be any progress, countries plagued by recurring political coups must make radical changes for the better. This includes increasing civic engagement and increasing educational spending to assist in bolstering the economy and tackling youth unemployment. Governments should also work to install proper democratic practices, including formalized constitutions and judiciary practices. Countries that begin this process must have support from the international and regional communities.  

The international community could aim sanctions more precisely to keep from harming innocent citizens who have not participated in or supported the coup. Responses by ECOWAS, the European Union, and France to Niger’s coup have choked regional banking and closed Niger’s borders. Instead, sanctions should target the finances and movement of coup members to avoid unwarranted economic backlash. 

Regional groups such as the African Union and ECOWAS should adopt clear and concise policies on intervention that are unaffected by relationships held with country leaders or past legacies, nor should these policies be able to change as ECOWAS leadership changes. ECOWAS and the African Union should develop an internationally supported threshold for what classifies as a coup with clear steps for escalation. Escalation can mean imposing sanctions or intervening militarily. Once capacity is built up and regional institutions have the framework to combat coups, steps can be taken to combat subsequent security concerns and increasing extremist activity.  

The United States must formally connect AFRICOM leadership and State Department conflict prevention, counterterrorism, and Africa bureaus with ECOWAS and the African Union. Due to the nature of al Qaeda and ISIS global terrorism networks and how the affiliates of these groups identify targets, especially as informed by foreign engagement grievances and/or colonial histories, it is imperative that counterterrorism efforts be comprehensive and disseminated through African and regional leadership.  

Structural change that supports good governance in West Africa must be the center to this comprehensive, African-led approach. Good governance and fair interactions with security forces are the only way to quell terrorist recruitment of aggrieved citizens in West Africa. Non-radicalized individuals are engaging with offshoots of al Qaeda and ISIS for two main reasons: indiscriminate targeting by government forces and lack of access to basic services and rights of citizenship. These are pervasive problems, especially in the rural and northern regions of these states. 

It is crucial that as ECOWAS, the African Union, and international partners address regional and state-level instability created by the coup in Niger to ensure that responsible intra-state governance and state security efforts are maintained. Adequate support from the United States and all international partners to the African Union and ECOWAS will make it possible to address state governance issues while encouraging responsible intra-state security and stability. This support must be transparent and engage local actors to strengthen the trust whose fragility has led to coups in the first place.  

Riley Moeder is a Senior Analyst for the Special Initiatives program at the New Lines Institute, focusing her research on North Africa and Strategic Rivalries. Prior to joining the New Lines Institute, Riley was a program assistant for the United States Institute of Peace in the Middle East and North Africa department. She previously worked at American Enterprises Institute in the Critical Threats Department, researching non-state actors in the Sahel. She also studied in Strasbourg, France, where she researched international human rights law and refugee policy.

Tammy Palacios is a Senior Analyst leading the Priority Sustainable Counterterrorism initiative at the New Lines Institute. Palacios previously served as Program Head for the Nonstate Actors program at New Lines, where she worked in the field of violent and non-violent non-state actors. Prior to joining the New Lines Institute, Tammy served as Project Lead for the MENA Research Team at TTCSP, where she managed two international teams collecting data on think tanks and civil society organizations in the MENA region. Tammy also spent time on Syria and ISIS portfolios at the Institute for the Study of War where she focused on Salafi-Jihadist militant groups operating in Syria. She tweets at @TammyPalacios10

The threat of military force to end the coup in Niger has led to significant divisions in the region.

It has heightened tensions in Niger itself, as well as among its neighbours.

There are more and more signs that any military intervention is likely to be met with stiff opposition. Growing support for the junta has emboldened the coup plotters to stay in power and call the bluff of the Economic Community of West African States, Ecowas.

In reaction to the threat of force, more Nigeriens took to the streets to show their opposition, with one protest held close to a French military base in Niamey.

The option of military force has divided countries in west Africa and the Sahel. Ecowas members are fully aware that an all-out war would increase the fragility of the region. A meeting of Ecowas military chiefs in Ghana on 17 and 18 August will discuss intervention options.

Meanwhile, the Ecowas parliament is divided over a military intervention. Member countries such as Nigeria, which currently holds the rotating chair, are also being put under internal pressure. Protesters took to the streets in Kano, the biggest city in northern Nigeria, against a possible invasion of Niger.

For their part, countries that neighbour Niger but do not belong to Ecowas, such as Chad and Algeria, have opposed the use of force.

As a scholar of politics and international relations, I believe that a military intervention in Niger is unlikely, as I have previously stated. However, the threat of force means tensions remain high. This is understandable as a great deal is at stake. I have identified three major implications of a full-blown war.

The first casualty would be the ongoing regional war against terrorism because countries currently committed to this fight would have their armies and resources diverted.

The second is that there would be a mass influx of refugees into the seven countries bordering Niger. This would have a knock-on effect as more refugees seek to find their way to Europe.

The third is that the conflict would heighten tensions between Niger and France. The junta blames France for the country’s insecurity and economic woes.

Counting the cost of war

Nigerien soldiers, through the G5-Sahel and Multinational Joint Task Force, are involved in the fight against Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and other terrorist groups around the Lake Chad Basin and other regions of the country. An attack led by Ecowas on Niger would distract the soldiers and divert critical resources.

Terrorist groups could then take advantage of borders weakened by conflict. They could also benefit from a situation where armies which previously fought side by side against insurgents such as Boko Haram and ISWAP were now fighting one another.

The example of Syria and how ISIS quickly emerged in the region gives a glimpse of what could happen.

Most of the Nigerien population lives in the southern part of the country next to the borders with Nigeria, Republic of Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries would suffer an influx of refugees, further destabilising what are already fragile states.

A war between the Nigerien military and Ecowas would embolden human traffickers and lead to more Africans taking advantage of the chaos to travel north towards Europe.

Niger has several bilateral and multilateral arrangements with the European Union and other countries in Europe to curb mass migration through Libya and the Mediterranean sea.

Agadez in central Niger used to be a major hub for illegal migration but this has changed as a result of the concerted effort between Niger and its European allies.

Military intervention would lead to a total collapse of the relationship between France and Niger’s people. There is already anger among a large part of the Nigerien public against the former colonial master and its activities in the country.

Niger was a French colony from 1922 till independence in 1960 and Paris has continued to play a critical role in the domestic political and economic affairs of the country.

If people believe that Ecowas is being pushed to take military action by France and its allies, Nigeriens could look to Russia which has issued its own warning against military intervention.

While Russia might not have the capacity and resources to fully mobilise in support of the junta, it might engage the Wagner Group, the Russia-backed private military contractor, which already has a presence in neighbouring Mali.

Russia has been careful not to support the coup plotters so as not to upset its allies in Africa, such as South Africa and Namibia, who both oppose the coup. But a full-scale military intervention would provide Moscow with an opportunity to get involved and “gain another ally”. The military leaders in Burkina Faso for instance have been strengthening  their relationship with Russia.

Limited options

Ecowas is desperate to “do something” after the junta defied its seven-day ultimatum to step down.

Meanwhile, the junta is not showing any signs of backing down.

I think the best option is to rule out military action and to negotiate a short transition period to restore democracy.