Daniil Medvedev feels World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will win up to five Wimbledon titles in his career.

The Russian No. 1 has had a terrific start to the 2023 season, winning five ATP singles titles before traveling to Paris for Roland Garros. However, since his first-round defeat at the Paris Major, Medvedev has struggled for form.

In a recent conversation with the ATP, Daniil Medvedev opined that Alcaraz could win up to five Wimbledon titles, given the way he operates on every surface. However, he also added that it is tough to say because grass is 'a tough surface'.

“In my opinion, the way Carlos plays on every surface, he can win maybe five Wimbledons, but you never know. It's a tough surface to play on," he said.

The Russian went on to recall playing against the Spaniard and said that this year the 20-year-old has improved on grass.

"When we played [in 2021], he was not the same player, so I managed to get the best of this match," Medvedev said. "Last year, I think he improved [on grass] already, played this four-setter against [Jannik] Sinner [in the fourth round]. I remember it was a great match."

The 2021 US Open winner mentioned that grass is really tough for the players, but he feels Carlos Alcaraz's potential is 'really high' on this surface.

“So I think his potential is really high on any surface, but grass is a tough surface for many players. Let's see how he handles this task," Daniil Medvedev added.

The two-time Australian Open finalist also expressed his admiration for Alcaraz for playing so well on grass despite the perception that his style of play does not suit the surface.

“Then there is going to be someone else [like Alcaraz], where you say in your mind that while his game is not really suited for grass — maybe he doesn't go to the net that often and stuff like this — and then he plays so well on grass, and he says it himself that it is his best and favorite surface. That's where it's surprising," he concluded.

Wimbledon 2023: Daniil Medvedev to play Arthur Fery in 1R; Carlos Alcaraz to lock horns with Jeremy Chardy

Daniil Medvedev will kickstart his 2023 Wimbledon campaign by taking on Britain's Arthur Fery in the first round. The Russian was barred from participating in 2022 due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In his last appearance in 2021, Medvedev reached the fourth round of the tournament, where he lost to Hubert Hurkacz.

Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, will play against France's Jeremy Chardy in the opening round of Wimbledon. The top seed recently won his first grass-court title at the Queen's Club Championships. In 2022, at Wimbledon, he lost to Jannik Sinner in the fourth round of the tournament.

[sportskeeda]

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Dr. Nnaemeka Obiaraeri (Development Economist and Investment Banker)

Topic: Managing fuel subsidy savings

Date: 1ST JULY, 2023
                         
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“See Paris and die!” We used to hear that as young persons. Paris was meant to be the most exotic spot of European civilization, an intellectual capital and the reference point for the Renaissance – Francis !1, Cardinal Richelieu, Loui XIII, Louis XIV, and the ideas-driven salons of Paris. But that was in the past. Nobody goes to Paris to die these days, or to look for big ideas at salons. The history is still there, the legacy is apparent, but there is no big deal anymore about Paris. Most people go there for tourism, lovers travel to Paris to take pictures at some of the most memorable legacies of world heritage: at the la Tour Eiffel, the Louvre Museum, the Seine River, the Versailles, the Mussee d’Orsay and particularly at the Arc de Triomphe where lovers take pictures after, or before visiting the Eiffel Tower to show that they have been to Paris.

It is particularly tragic for France that from being the centre of culture and civilization at a time in history it is now more important as a centre for romance, conferences and tourism, even if France has sustained its status as one of the seven most powerful countries in the world as a member of the G-7. Between June 22 and 23, France was again in the spotlight when it hosted the summit on a “New Global Financial Pact” which as President Emmanuel Macron pointed out was to develop a new architecture for global financing to the advantage of the global South with particular focus on. Climate adaptation, equity, justice and respect for the sovereignty of states. The Summit was attended by more than 50 representatives from countries, that is Heads of States and Governments, the private sector and international development/multilateral agencies. It was France’s means of asserting its continuing relevance as a world super power. None of the G-7 countries would ever give up easily in claiming their own space in the global arena, with regard to diplomacy and influence. President Macron has been particularly determined in carrying the French torchlight in the global space.

That said, let me pivot a little. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s new President and his entourage participated in the New Global Finance Pact Summit in Paris For those who do not understand the context, there has been so much talk about a new global financial architecture in the international space when countries of the global South, that is the developing countries began to ask for a New International Economic Order as far back as 1974. Developing countries were not at the table when the United Nations, the IMF, the World Bank and other multilateral institutions were formed after World War II. Nor were they at the table after World War I and the negotiations that led to the Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations. Post-war, the world has been trying to grapple with the challenges of peace, security and stability, but with that has come the challenges of equity, justice and state sovereignty. Article 1 of the UN Charter talks about the sovereignty of states, but we live in an unbalanced world and an inequitable world. The disparity between the Global North and the Global South has therefore led to s a situation whereby the poor developing countries of the world have consistently asked for a seat at the table, either at the UN Security Council, or for trade not aid, and reforms at all levels and a greater commitment of the North to the South. France as we have seen, and other countries of the North – Japan, China, Russia, the United States have tried to seize on this through annal summits at which they announce grants for developing countries,

Much of it is just sheer hypocrisy though. Whether it is Japan, China, the US, the UK or France, these Global North countries are basically looking out for their own interests. In France, the developed countries for example promised a $100 billion fund for climate adaptation. We heard much of that at COP 26 in Glasgow Scotland, and also at COP 27 at Sharm-el-Sheik in Egypt., and again at the African Development Bank Anniversary at the same venue – Sharm el-Sheik most recently. In Paris, the rich nations pledged about $100 billion for climate adaptation to help developing countries, but has progress been made (?), given the fact that an outsized role is given to private investment and multilateral development banks. The truth is that the global North is not yet ready to input fairness, justice and equity into its relationship with the global South – that, sadly, is the extant international economic order. Zambia’s President Hichilema may have been able to secure a debt deal with China with the help of France’s President Macron but that doesn’t really mean much. Zambia, the copper-rich nation was the first Africa country to default on its debt prepayments in 2020. It is indebted to China for up to $4billion out of a debt profile of about $6 billon. The loans may have been taken by Hichilema’s predecessor – Michael Sata and Edward Lungu, but Hichilema succeeded in getting a reprieve on debt repayment from China, with President Macron facilitating the deal. I don’t think that is a lot to crow about. Zambia is in a very bad place economically. It has also been said that the. Presidents of Ghana, Kenya, Barbados reportedly made statements on behalf of the developing world about fairness, equity and justice in the proposed new global financial pact. What does anybody expect them to say? The big issue about North-South relations has been exactly about the same issues, the original basis in particular for Africa, demanding “trade, not aid”.

I have given this background to lead up to the point that has been raised by some Twitter analysts, those I call the 140-word intellectuals who have been saying that whr5eas some other Presidents from developing countries took the podium and made some noise with regard to striking some deals, President Tinubu only got promises from the Paris Summit and did not make any big statement. What big statement is anyone looking for? Comparing President Tinubu to President William Ruto of Kenya, or the Presidents of Ghana or Zambia is an act of self-abnegation on the part of those who have done so. Every country makes its own sovereign choices and defines its own priorities. Nigeria is not under any obligation to speak at any forum except as it deems fit. The point has been made that President Tinubu did not speak at any major forum. Nigeria as a sovereign state has every right to choose what serves its purpose. In any case, among all the African Presidents at that Paris Summit, Tinubu is the youngest in order of emergence. Protocol and etiquette require that he cannot speak ahead of Presidents that are ahead of him until his proper introduction at the regional and continental level, where he is properly admitted into the body of Heads of States and Governments. Going to Paris was also Tinubu’s first international outing, after his election as President. I disagree with those who claim that his attendance at that Summit was a lost opportunity. There is too much mush on social media.

My view is that the Paris trip was a great outing for Nigeria and for Africa, and especially for President Tinubu. You all must have seen him bouncing, and sprinting like a teenager at the events that he chose to attend and the great photo opportunities that he had. I was so drawn into the atmosphere I had to confess that I would also like to become President of Nigeria someday. There is clearly something magical about that office that purifies the person, and gives your system a little bounce. Can anyone imagine that the same Tinubu that critics used to ridicule is suddenly looking like he can take Anthony Joshua’s place and challenge Dillian Whyte to a fight? It is the magic of that spiritual place called the Nigerian Presidency. I digress. I intend to say that those who claim that Tinubu’s trip to France was a poor outing are factually wrong, unnecessarily sentimental and unfair. He did well. It is also the height of emotionalism to compare or reduce the performance of the President of one’s country to the level of the Presidents of other countries which on a good day look up to Nigeria. In this matter, I think we all need to be reminded that campaigns and elections are over, we are now in the season of governance. Except the courts decide one way or the other, my take is that we are now in the season of governance, and this whole matter cannot be left alone to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its mob. We have a responsibility to get involved in how this country is run. It is no longer about APC or Tinubu. It is about us. Less than a month ago, everyone talked about Muhammadu Buhari. I have not seen him on the front page of any newspaper since he packed his things out of Aso Rock and relocated to Katsina state. We have all simply moved on with our lives. This I think is the point that can also be taken from Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s statement that “Nigerians should please relax”. Indeed, we all need to relax!

The Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) was accused of not posting her pictures with President Tinubu in Paris whereas she posted on social media pictures with other Presidents that are not her own. She was then accused of making a political statement. The truth that is lost on the complainants is that Tinubu does not need Dr. Okonjo-Iweala’s validation. It is not an issue. And she put her finger on it when she pointed out that those complaining have sadly shown “the depth of polarization in our society”. She has told us correctly: “Let’s unite to build our country, not attack.” The censorious mode into which the opposition in Nigeria has plugged itself is unhealthy for us as a country, nor is it of any help to the sub-region. In Sierra Leone where presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections were held last Saturday, it is shocking to see that Sierra Leoneans are beginning to behave almost exactly like Nigerians. The ruling party, the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), claiming victory is already telling the main opposition party, the All People’s Congress (APC): “Go to Court”, Go to Court”. The judiciary is obviously not only in the eyes of the storm in Nigeria as the Nigeria Bar Association-Special Section on Public Interest and Development Law (NBA-SWIDEL) resolved at a summit last week, it is embattled everywhere. Again, I digress.

I began with Tinubu’s trip to Paris. Now, let me end with that. His first official international outing. Good. Good. For the benefit of those who claim that Tinubu did not secure a deal, I accuse them of ignorance. Deals are not secured by word of mouth. Summits provide an opportunity for interaction and engagements and sound bites. What follows thereafter is more important, the ability of the country involved in diplomatic relations at either bilateral or multinational level to follow through. Zambia may have secured a commitment for debt repayment rescheduling from China but it means nothing if it remains at the level of expectation. It is the same argument for the pledge by the global North to provide up to $100 billion for climate adaptation financing. This is at best an aspiration. It may never happen. Didn’t they make similar promises at Glasgow, Scotland (COP 26) and Sharm el-Sheik (COP 27)?

Nigeria’s participation in the Paris Summit is strategic and appropriately so. Nigeria was clear about its purpose: to woo the international community to invest in Nigeria, and to make just enough appearances to show that there is a new Sheriff in charge of Nigeria. The Lagos City Boy who is now President of Nigeria did not disappoint. He was sprinting and hugging and laughing, putting up a good show on the soft diplomacy side. He demonstrated wisdom by not over-pushing himself in people’s faces at his first major outing as a newly-elected President. And it is not true that he went there to take photos. He held strategic meetings, and secured serious commitments. Mr. Dele Alake, Presidential spokesman, my beloved junior in that office, has reported copiously on this: President Tinubu’s meeting with Professor Benedict Oramah of the African Export and Import Bank (AFREXIM) who gave a firm commitment that the development bank will invest more in Nigeria, and the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) who was told pointedly by Tinubu that it would be perilous for the world to ignore Nigeria. The EBRD lady concurred. Tinubu also met with Presidents of other countries. International diplomacy is not simply about making speeches at the podium where everyone says more or less the same things; it is more about commitments secured on the sidelines. Tinubu did very well in the latter regard. The only caveat I attach to that is that there is need for follow-up, and follow-through. Tinubu has to work on that. Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is too busy organizing protocols and ceremonies, nobody in that Ministry pays enough attention to the nexus between diplomacy and statecraft. The golden age of that Ministry ended. Tinubu must revive it.

My only point of criticism about the Paris Summit event would be as follows. President Tinubu met with Nigerians in Diaspora at an event in Paris which is a good thing, Nigerians in Diaspora are major stakeholders in the Nigerian enterprise- many of them are even far more concerned than the Nigerians at home. But Tinubu made the mistake of saying at the forum that the country’s financial system was rotten under Godwin Emefiele as Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). He gave his audience more details. That was wrong. Emefiele was arrested on June 8, and has been in the custody of the Department of State Services (DSS) since then with the claim that he is still being investigated. President Tinubu must refrain from making prejudicial statements. Emefiele has rights under the laws of Nigeria. He should not be crucified through Presidential proclamation. Tinubu’s critics have further objected to his decision to travel from Paris to London. I am amused by the comments. The beauty of democracy is that even persons who cannot buy enough data credit on their phones or who cannot run their own lives believe it is their right to dictate to the “oga on top”. Democracy is not too much of a departure from dictatorship, Only the character is different.

Asari Dokubo, the self-styled Niger Delta activist and revolutionary who came into prominence during the struggle for self-determination in the Niger Delta finally got the attention that he may have been looking for. He came into prominence in the 2000s as an activist until the Umaru Yar’Adua administration launched an amnesty programme and the embattled militants were later allowed to have a look at what is “in the pipelines of Abuja”, turning former warlords of the creeks into overnight billionaires and contractors. He was one of the warlords who made good on the wings of the Niger Delta agitation. During the 2023 general election campaigns, he openly declared support for the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as he described Tinubu as his benefactor whom he would do anything to support. Tinubu reportedly took care of his family while he was in detention. He gave his wife a house in Victoria Garden City (VGC) and paid his children’s school fees. One good turn deserves another – for him it was pay back time. Hence, in March 2023, he led a solidarity march for Bola Tinubu and the APC on the streets of Port Harcourt.

In May 2023, just a few days ahead of the inauguration of the new President, Dokubo again led a group of Niger Delta Youths to the Presidential Election Tribunal sitting in Abuja to declare that nothing on earth would stop Bola Tinubu’s inauguration as Nigerian President. Dokubo was stoutly praised by Festus Keyamo, erstwhile spokesperson of the Tinubu Campaign Organization for leading the “ground forces” to support a long-time friend and brother. Without a scintilla of doubt, in a democratic setting, every individual is entitled to his or her own choices, and as far as loyalty matters as a societal value, it is clearly within Asari Dokubo’s rights to support any candidate of his choice, express his views and summersault acrobatically in so doing if that is convenient for him.

What I find curious would be the kind of monstrous sycophancy and attention-seeking antics that have attended Asari Dokubo’s recent exertions in the public space and the need for some of his claims to be closely interrogated. Sometime last week, Dokubo was quoted as saying that Nigerians should hold him responsible if Bola Tinubu fails. He reportedly said: “If Ahmed Bola Tinubu fails, hold me responsible. I am unapologetic. I have known him since 1992 and I know what he stands for, and I can stand in the gap between him and the people and say this. This is a step my brother Goodluck failed to take when he had the opportunity. The same step Buhari could not take and Tinubu took it from his first day at the office.” Asari Dokubo was referring to the removal of fuel subsidy by President Tinubu. He has however, just provided a strong reason why Nigerian history should be made a compulsory subject in our schools. Some of the so-called big men in our society who have the capacity to smuggle themselves into front page news have no clue about contemporary history. Asari Dokubo wants to be held responsible if Tinubu fails. In his capacity as what, please? Who has appointed him into the role of the King’s Horseman?

Has he ever heard of a man called Tokunbo Afikuyomi, who was even much finer in his expression of loyalty? Has he heard of all those people who said they should be stoned if President Buhari disappointed them as President? When Nigerians started looking for people to stone, all the early-day Buhari champions had gone quiet, or were playing deaf and dumb. Many of them have learnt to remain quiet forever. Asari Dokubo may make the headlines, in the euphoria of the moment, but let him be careful what he asks for. In any case, Nigerians have no business with him. Our business is with President Tinubu. He will be the one to be held responsible for his own performance because the buck stops at his desk. In a fit of unbridled self-ingratiation, Dokubo in fact added a snide comment about President Goodluck Jonathan whom he calls “my brother”. The kind of wonders I have seen in Nigeria’s political space, I simply cannot fully tell it all. Et tu Asari? Many Nigerians would sell their own brothers for a mess of porridge, and lick their tongue doing so. Not even Engr. Joe Igbokwe, the Igbo man from Nnewi, turned Yoruba spokesperson, has been so uncouth. But it is not only President Goodluck Jonathan that Asari Dokubo has thrown under the bus in recent days. He finally got rewarded with a visit to the seat of power, the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja. It is not as if he is actually a new visitor to the premises, but this time around, Tinubu apparently laid out the carpet for him. And he wasn’t going to let the opportunity pass. He upped his game. If na you nko? The thing to note though is that his visit fits perfectly into the Rose Garden politics that the Tinubu administration has been managing very well. While some people are going with lawyers and boxes of materials to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, a judicial process that may not end till next year, President Tinubu is busy “seizing the day”, to borrow a phrase from the Canadian-American writer, Saul Bellow, making appointments, and pronouncements, and receiving visitors. Who has not yet visited?

Traditional rulers, former government officials, members of the opposition, former Presidents and Heads of State, a former CBN Governor have all visited to pay homage to Nigeria’s new King. Even Tinubu’s arch-critic, Chief Olabode George of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been quoted saying whereas he does not need anything from Tinubu, if he has to make any recommendations to him, he would do so for the good of the country. Nobody should panic if we make up one day and we hear that the National Judicial Council of Nigeria (the NJC) is having an audience with Tinubu. May be President Olusegun Obasanjo would also visit very soon, some day. Tinubu is a great student of power. Is former Governor, former Minister, Rauf Aregbesola not now singing his praises to high heavens, and attributing everything he has been in his life to Tinubu and Buhari?

Apparently shot in the arm with a good dose of a wonder drug to be known for the purpose of this writing as “Tinubumycin”, Asari Dokubo was taken straight from the President’s office to address the state house press corps. Ordinarily when non-state actors visit the Villa, they are never seated directly below Nigeria’s coat of arms. They can be seated to the left or the right, with a state official co-ordinating the media interaction, in most cases, the visiting non-state actor is even interviewed on the corridor or just by the entrance to the media briefing room. I was shocked seeing Asari Dokubo sitting below Nigeria’s coat of arms and making pronouncements. In what capacity, please? The Media Department in the Villa shares the same corridor with the Protocol Department. Protocol and Etiquette are important aspects of state diplomacy. If the new guys along the corridor do not know how state diplomacy works, they only need to ask. The point is that diplomacy is based on rules not the preferences of the official in charge. Asari Dokubo had no business seating directly under Nigeria’s coat of arms, a symbol of state, symbolism being an important part of diplomacy as stated in Article 20 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961). Whereas Dokubo was not an envoy, our point is that state activities in every circumstance are governed by protocol. Symbolism is important. And what exactly did he say? He used the platform to vomit.

Last Friday, revelling in the excitement of the audience that he had been granted to visit the Nigerian President, Asari Dokubo told the media that he had advised President Tinubu not to release Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) who has been in state custody since his extra-ordinary rendition from Kenya in 2021. Dokubo reportedly said: “Releasing Nnamdi Kanu is rewarding criminality and rewarding gruesome murder of innocent people. He should face the law for the actions and instigations he carried out... His release would fuel impunity. During EndSARS, Nnamdi Kanu was walking free. What did he do? He poured petrol on the flames of ENDSARS. Now, he has been caught. What of the people who have died? This is a criminal. He should face the law.” If this was just reported speech, I would have assumed that perhaps Asari Dokubo would show up later to say that he was quoted out of context, which is the standard practice in Nigeria. After all, Senator Muhammad Adamu Bulkachuwa who was recorded on tape and whose submissions at the valedictory session of the 9th Senate have been widely circulated is now saying that he was misquoted, and that he was not allowed to complete his submissions. He should be grateful to Senator Ahmad Lawan for cutting him short. He has done more than enough damage already, and if he has nothing important to say, I advise him to keep quiet! Why is Nigeria always having leaders in high places, who cannot think straight? Does Senator Bulkachuwa expect us to believe him, especially now that his wife has publicly contradicted him and his so-called “unfinished valedictory speech” has thrown the integrity of the entire judiciary into question? As for Dokubo, he has not denied his statements on Nnamdi Kanu, but the irony is writ large.

He seems to have forgotten his own antecedents and personal history. Asari Dokubo could not complete simple university education but he gained prominence as a freedom fighter defending the rights of the marginalized people of the Niger Delta. He was a prominent figure in the Niger Delta struggle for self-determination, as President of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC), and later as founder and leader of the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force (NDPF). He was the General of Generals, Lord of the Creeks, who became a folk hero and a champion among his people. He was involved in direct action on behalf of his people – the Kaiama Declaration, Operation Climate Change, resource control and self-determination. Asari Dokubo’s team took on the Nigerian state and fought it, making life and business near-impossible for the oil multinationals operating in the Niger Delta. In effect, oil production activities in the Niger Delta dropped. In 2007, Asari was arrested and charged for treason. President Umaru Yar’Adua would later “settle him” and his boys. This piece of recent history is necessary to underline the fact that there are key parallels between the struggle led by Mazi Nnamdi Kanu and before him the struggle led by Asari Dokubo. In the years between 2001 and 2007, many described Asari Dokubo with the same words that he is using against Nnamdi Kanu today. His anti-Kanu outburst is clear evidence that his gentrification is now complete! He used to speak against the Nigerian state. He is now helping the same state to look for criminals. Kanu’s counsel, Aloy Ejimakor, Emma Powerful of IPOB and Ohanaeze Ndigbo have already responded to Asari Dokubo in robust measure. He is yet to respond to them, particularly their allegation that he is using Nnamdi Kanu’s name to look for oil pipeline contracts from the Federal Government of Nigeria.

Ejimakor, IPOB and Ohaneze Ndigbo are not alone. Last Friday, Asari Dokubo also accused the Nigerian military – the Navy and the Army of being behind the menace of oil theft in Nigeria. He offered to help the Nigerian state to check oil theft in the Niger Delta. This is the story of our lives. A non-state actor comes forward and accuses the Nigerian military of being an army of thieves, stealing Nigeria’s most prized natural resource, and he offers to succeed where the Nigerian military has failed. The international community must be laughing at us. I had dealt at length with this subject in a previous piece here titled “The Oil Thieves of Nigeria” (ThisDay, January 4, 2022). Nigeria loses about 193 million barrels of crude oil in 11 months, about $3.5 billion, and about 10% of the country’s foreign reserves. This has been confirmed by players in the oil and gas sector, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), and by the Multinational Oil Companies who have had to divest from Nigeria. The question is: who steals the crude oil? Oil theft is certainly not a small operation. To steal crude from a particular platform and move it to an evacuation point is a high technological venture, and to even ship it out of Nigeria’s maritime territory requires a heavy deployment of men, resources, technology and capital. And this happens every day, throwing Nigeria’s monocultural economy adrift and all we get is the trading of blames? Asari Dokubo has been consistent in blaming the military for colluding with other elements to steal Nigeria’s crude oil. The Navy and the Army have exercised a due right of reply and asked him to name the military officers involved. They have similarly accused him of looking for oil pipeline surveillance contracts. High Chief Government Ekpemukpolo who he probably considers his “boy” in street parlance has a similar contract. Why shouldn’t he hustle for one for himself?

Asari Dokubo’s outburst speaks to the failure of the Nigerian state to protect its own resources. There is a body called Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority – how efficient has it been? Why is the Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission asleep? There is the Federal Government Investigative Panel on Oil Theft and Losses led by General Barry Ndiomu (rtd) which submitted its report to the National Security Adviser in March 2023. Since then, mum has been the word. The exchange between the Nigerian military and Asari Dokubo may have generated some interest, but I do not think the matter should be allowed to die down. Dokubo must be made to share what he knows with the Nigerian government. He may or may not get whatever he is looking for – Nigerians are always looking for things – but we need to get to the root of the evil of oil theft and address it once and for all. It is time we heard from the operators – Sterling Global, Aiteo, Seplat and the IOCs. They should come and tell us what they produce in actuality. There is something somewhere that runs counter to business economics. Yesterday, President Tinubu showed his readiness to continue to act swiftly by making new appointments, including changing the service chiefs. More persons would have to go. Of all the 23 appointments announced yesterday though, I looked in vain for an Igbo name on the list – may be one from the South East. And why is the President appointing commanders for the Brigade of Guards, the Garrison and the Artillery - which are supposed to be routine military postings?

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Jideofor Adibe (Professor of Political Science and International Relations)

Topic: State of the Nation: Matters Arising

Date: 17TH JUNE, 2023
                         
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“How was your Democracy Day?”

“I woke up early, listened to President Bola Tinubu’s nationwide address, and I went about my daily affairs.” 

“Yesterday was a public holiday. You were expected to stay at home and have a good rest.”

“I can understand if some people enjoyed the holiday, after all it is now more expensive to buy litres of fuel for your vehicle. As things are right now, Nigerians would jump at any opportunity to save fuel costs. Those days of going about like small-pox are gone. People now calculate how they move about. But people like us who always have one thing or the other to do, we have no option. We have to keep the hustle alive. The hustle is real, men.”

“Some people don’t know how to relax in this country, and you are one of them. By the time the high cost of fuel drills holes in your pocket, you will adjust.” 

“How does one relax? How can anyone in this pressure cooker of a society in which we have found ourselves relax? What has democracy brought us?”

“A lot. We are no longer under the shackles of military rule.”

“Democratic rule is better measured in terms of its dividends. Where are the dividends?” 

“I can point to a few. Democracy has given the people the power to choose their own leaders. It has created a new set of leaders. We are in the seventh transition within the Fourth Republic. In 1993, the military may have annulled the Presidential election won by Chief MKO Abiola and denied the people the Hope that he promised them, but here we are in 2023, President Tinubu says he is determined to restore Hope.”

“I saw the same connection that you are trying to draw in President Tinubu’s speech yesterday. I have also heard some people saying that Tinubu and MKO share common traits. You know, I have this gut feeling that the comparison may be overstretched.”

“Tinubu was part of the pro-democracy struggle. He stood at the barricades. When he talks about Democracy Day, he has the requisite credentials to do so.” 

“I sort of like the speech though. The only part I find funny is the reference to Arnold Toynbee. Has Tinubu ever read Toynbee? His speech writers should make him sound natural. They should maintain a consistent tone that projects his ownership of the thoughts. One of these days, they would even make him quote Noam Chomsky. Ha Ha. Ha. But in terms of sentiments, the speech was on point”

“My brother, don’t worry about quotations. Leaders are allowed to show knowledge. Tinubu can even quote Socrates if he wishes. My own take-away is that the President paid tribute to MKO Abiola, as hero and martyr of democracy, the man who stood for democracy, and whose sacrifice became the catalyst for Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999. The President has asked us to embrace the idea of sacrifice and emulate Abiola and that his government will reward us all with infrastructure, and welfare programmes. He also paid tribute to the heroes of democracy.” 

“We are all used to that rhetoric. That is the same rhetoric that has been drummed into our ears since states of the South West began to celebrate Democracy Day on May 29, until the Federal Government separated May 29, the day of presidential inauguration from June 12, which the Buhari administration set aside as Democracy Day and National Holiday. That is one good thing President Buhari did. He also gave MKO, a post-humous GCFR award. But who has sacrifice helped in this country? What has been the gain of the MKO Abiola family? What has anybody done for them? What has anybody done for the families of all the other heroes and heroines who led the struggle for Nigeria’s “second independence” as Tinubu calls it. Joe Igbokwe has written a useful book titled Heroes of Democracy (1999) in which he provides a comprehensive list of persons who participated in the June 12 struggle, and those who died. Remember the founding General Secretary of the Campaign for Democracy (CD), Chima Ubani.  Remember Bagauda Kaltho. Remember those four young men who hijacked a Nigeria Airways Airbus A310, in October 1993 in protest against the annulment of the June 12 Presidential election. They were teenage students of Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA).” 

 “What are you driving at? Neither MKO Abiola nor his supporters resisted military tyranny because they wanted to die so that their families could benefit.”

“Have you ever heard of any revolutionary, change-agent or defender of progressive causes who sets out to die as an ambition? Such persons are often consumed by the contradictions of their societies and their times. But they leave lessons behind. They alter the course of history for good. Please, tell me: have we learnt any lessons from Nigeria’s debacle between 1993 and 1999, and after?” 

“Societies evolve”

“And in what direction is Nigeria evolving?”

“We have hope”

“Hope. What hope? In 1993, Abiola’s slogan was “Hope 93”. In 2023, 30 years later, Tinubu is still looking for that hope. He wants to capture and restore it. In 1993, Abiola preached a message of “farewell to poverty”. In 2023, that same poverty has developed such roots and metastasized so badly like a cancerous organ, we are now told it has a new identity: multidimensional poverty. I guess 30 years is long enough for anything to become multidimensional.”

“You should learn to look at the positive side of things”.

“I am trying. In 1993, before the Babangida administration stopped the announcement of results, the then National Electoral Commission (NEC) had reported that Abiola was leading in 19 out of 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory: all the states in the South West, 5 of the 9 Northern states including Kano; 3 out of the 7 states in the South East, and 4 out of the seven states in the Middle Belt. Abiola ran on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Ethnicity did not matter. Religion was not an issue. It is a crying shame that 30 years later, Nigeria has gone back in history. Today, the politics of ethnicity and religion has divided the country. We have gone from bad to worse.” 

“1993 is not 2023, my friend. The times have changed. Our democracy continues to grow.”

“Tell me how”

“Today for example, on the 13^th day of June, in the year of our Lord 2023, President Tinubu shall proclaim the inauguration of Nigeria’s 10^th National Assembly and the lawmakers shall choose their own leaders”

“Very good. A major event immediately after President Tinubu’s first Democracy Day in office. Have you been reading the news?” 

“What about the news? Journalists are always spinning the news to suit their own biases and the expectations of their sponsors.” 

“Don’t say that. Journalists hold a mirror up to society. The leadership race in the National Assembly has been dogged by so-called party supremacy, the hypocrisy of the political elite, rancour, corruption, division and manipulations. Quite typical.”

“Nothing will happen. It shall be well. The APC has spoken. Tinubu has spoken.”

“Spoken what? Are you not aware that there are aggrieved parties who are ready to assert the independence of the legislative arm of government? In fact, are you not aware that the Chairman of the ruling APC advised the anointed persons for positions of presiding officers to arrive early at the Assembly or camp out there overnight to prevent what happened in 2015 under similar circumstances?”

“What happened in 2015?”

“Go and find out. You see why this country needs to teach History at all levels? A grown-up man like you does not know the contemporary political history of his own country.”

“Don’t insult me. Please leave history alone. Am I looking for a job in the civil service?  Am I going for a Quiz competition? As we speak, do you know how much would have been distributed overnight to all the aggrieved lawmakers? Money talks, my brother. As money speaks, the numbers will add up. I am hungry, please. Where can we find something to eat?” 

“Go to Oye-Ekiti where Damilola Adeparusi, aka Chef Dammy is trying to break Hilda Baci’s 100-hour cook-a-thon. I hear she has been cooking for more than 80 hours and that her target is to beat Tata Tandon and Hilda Baci. In Oye-Ekiti, food is ready.” 

“Nigeria is a wonderful place. We haven’t even heard from the Guinness Book of World Records on Hilda Basi’s marathon effort, now someone else is trying to compete with her for the record.”

“I don’t think Dammy is competing with Hilda. Imitation, they say, is the best form of flattery. You better start heading towards Oye-Ekiti. I am sure there would be piping hot amala and pounded yam on offer.” 

“There is a difference between a cook and a chef. Hilda looks to me like a chef. I would say Dammy is a cook.” 

“There is no such difference. Both prepare food for human consumption”

“Flavour is important. You want to compare food that is prepared in Oye-Ekiti, to food that is prepared in Lagos? You want to compare Maybach to Toyota Corolla?” 

“Come off it, my friend. Both ladies deserve to be encouraged.”

“Okay, if you can’t go to Oye-Ekiti, maybe you can make it to Ibadan where I hear one Temitope Adebayo, has also announced plans to cook for 140 hours to beat both Hilda Baci and Dammy. At this rate, they will turn this whole country into a kitchen oh. It has even been reported that Woli Arole is also looking for a place in the Guinness World Record. He is looking at a 5000-hour prayer marathon. He says he will announce a commencement date very soon.”

“Lobatan ooh. Nigeria, we hail thee! As some people are cooking, others want to pray. Do you think all this cook-a-thon, pray-a-thon has anything to do with the removal of fuel subsidy? Is there money attached to the Guinness World Record? Are Nigerians depressed?”

“I don’t know. But in case you change your mind, just make sure you don’t eat ponmo anywhere, no matter how well prepared”

“Ponmo ke? You can’t be serious. I like my ponmo, especially when it is soft, well-peppered, subsumed inside vegetable sauce, and combined with snails, both exciting the palate in a manner that makes you forget all the troubles of the world. Then give me palm wine or a chilled bottle of Shine Shine Bobo, Star Lager to push it down the gut...” 

“Ole! Just don’t go and kill yourself. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture has advised that people should stop eating hides, smoked meat and bush meat because of an outbreak of anthrax disease in the West African sub-region. You will just fall sick by eating what you are not supposed to eat.” 

“Na lie. I have been eating ponmo since I was a child. The Federal Government guys think they can lie to us to save animal hides and skins for leather production. They lie too much. The leather and tannery industry in Nigeria is practically dead. They want to stop our delicacy so they can get more materials for export. I am sure somebody in the Ministry is looking out for his or her own interest.” 

“Just be careful. You may not trust government. But it is not every time that they tell lies for selfish reasons.” 

“Don’t worry yourself. I can’t travel to Ibadan or Oye-Ekiti just to go and eat ponmo. The food won’t be free, anyway. And it is expensive getting petrol these days.” 

“Nigerians are not protesting. We all seem to have adjusted. The beauty of this country lies in the people’s resilience. No matter what hardship life throws at us, we all manage to survive. We are under a special kind of spell.” 

“We are just people of hope, that’s all. Which is why it bothers me to no end that some motorcyclists in, as far away as Cameroon are already protesting over the removal of fuel subsidy in Nigeria.  I saw a video in which they were purportedly abusing President Tinubu for removing fuel subsidy. What is their own in the matter?”

“There you have it, a strong justification for the fuel subsidy removal. Nigeria practically subsidizes fuel consumption in other West African countries. We are the Father Christmas of the region in everything because our leaders have not implemented the right policies over the years. If we get things right, we would be fine. Cameroonians are fighting over fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria. Can you imagine that, when state governments in Nigeria are beginning to ask people to work three days a week, because of fuel subsidy?”  

“Which states are those?”

“Edo and Kwara. But it looks like other states will soon join the bandwagon. Edo has added N10, 000 to the minimum wage in the state but what is N10, 000 when organized labour is asking for a minimum wage of N200, 000.” 

“Increasing the minimum wage won’t solve the problem. There are far more fundamental issues that must be addressed, and they have made the mistake of putting the cart before the horse.” 

“They?”

“Tinubu and his people. You know I have always said I don’t understand why anybody would want to be President of Nigeria at this time. The trouble for this country too much. As you are trying to solve one, another one is rearing its head.” 

“But we all need more money at this time. In fact, the private sector should be asked to increase the minimum pay too.” 

“It is a double-edged sword. If businesses are compelled to increase wages, they may have no option but to sack workers. There will be massive lay-offs. Government itself may not be able to pay. Chaos. Wahala.”

“There is money. President Tinubu has just approved students’ loans. He made that promise. He has kept it. He did not just hit the ground running. Omo, he is beginning to fly!” 

“Why are we like this in this country?”

“Just watch. Tinubu may turn out to be the magician we have been looking for.” 

“I have no opinion on that, until the matter before the tribunal is resolved.” 

“Dey there oh. Keep waiting. No be Nigeria?” 

City FM is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Programme: CITY TALKS WITH REUBEN ABATI

Time: 12:00pm

Guest: Muktar Mohammed (ceo finance with muktar)

Topic: Inauguration of 10th National Assembly and other matters

Date: 10TH JUNE, 2023

                         
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https://zoom.us/j/92877141732?pwd=VEJWb29OL2VVekZUTHRpdWYxK0xxZz09

Meeting ID: 928 7714 1732

Passcode: 600206

One of the first things that had been cited as evidence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu showing courage and wisdom and hitting the ground running as the 16^th President of Nigeria, has been his announcement that “fuel subsidy is gone”. In his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, he did not state how but within 24 hours, his rather speculative declaration was given effect. Oil marketers and managers at fuel stations adjusted their operations, shifting prices per litre of petrol upwards. By the following day, the NNPC Limited, the country’s sole supplier of finished product had announced a new template for petrol pricing, from N195 per litre to between N480 and N570 per litre - a more than 200% adjustment in the pump price of petrol. The given excuse is that this is in fulfilment of the All-Progressives Congress (APC) promise during the campaign season in the lead up to the 2023 General elections. The APC was not alone. Indeed, fuel subsidy removal was one of the major issues in the 2023 campaign process. Virtually every major political party promised that the subsidy would be removed. 

The IMF/World Bank in their global outlook for Africa and Nigeria had also advised against retaining fuel subsidy in Nigeria, being a source of wastage and leakage. Nigerian economists also agreed that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. It benefitted only the rich and was a ready source of arbitrage and a vehicle for the smuggling of petrol to neighbouring countries. The subject also gained a legal imprimatur with the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), whose express purpose was to introduce a legal and governance framework to guide activities in the oil and gas sector. By the tenets of the PIA, the subsidy regime was meant to go by 2021. 

Citing what he called “social consequences” that may arise from such action, the Buhari administration, literally postponing the evil day, got the National Assembly to shift the implementation of that part of the law till 18 months later, to coincide with the end of his own tenure as President of Nigeria. As that administration began to wind down, the then Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed continued to remind Nigerians that Nigeria would not be able to fund fuel subsidies beyond May 29, 2023. The extension granted under the two relevant laws, the Petroleum Industry Act (2021), and the 2023 Fiscal Framework and Appropriation Act could not be stretched legally beyond May 29. To do so would be to break the law. In the weeks leading to the end of that administration, we were further told that the outgoing government had decided that the incoming administration should join the Federal Government to take a decision as to what it would do. 

In the weekend leading to the Inauguration of the new administration on Monday, May 29, the National Assembly hurriedly met: Senate first, followed by the House of Representatives to pass amendments extending the 2023 Supplementary Appropriation Act till December 2023, and another Bill amending the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, to give effect to the criminal violation of Section 38 of the Law on the approved threshold for Ways and Means. The Bill as passed moved the threshold from 5% to 15%. Till he handed over the instruments of power, there was no information that Buhari had signed either of the two Bills. He left for Daura, with a promise to cross the border to neighbouring Niger, if anyone tried to drag him into any Nigerian crisis. As he did so, he left behind a debt burden in excess of N77 trillion Naira, debts owed to the country’s major oil company, the NNPCL, totalling N2.4 trillion, a debt service to revenue ratio of over 96%, an inflation rate of 22.24%, an unemployment rate in excess of 33%, an essentially broke country, whose travails were further compounded by insecurity and hopelessness resulting in the Nigerian invention of a “Japa” phenomenon turning Nigerians into asylum and opportunity-seekers in other parts of the world. 

In an attempt to seize ownership of the narrative however, Buhari’s handlers rolled out a number of publications: about four books in which they tried to justify the legacy of the administration, including reports by the Presidential Communication Council (PCC) and the Buhari Media Council (BMC). In a flurry of speeches, the outgoing President himself reminded everyone not to look at the debt overhang that he was leaving behind, but what he did with the borrowings: infrastructure development, reforms, reduction of insecurity, repatriation of stolen loot, the ease of doing business. In more than six months after assuming office, the Buhari administration could not appoint key Ministers or get the government going. The President himself spent more than a year in UK hospitals on medical tourism. 

He began his tour of duty with an ear challenge that had to be treated in the UK. He ended it with a toothache that could only be attended to by specialists in the same UK.  But in fairness to President Buhari, he finished on a physically strong note. His last two weeks in power was characterized by a burst of youthful energy. The Federal Executive Council approved contracts and memos, in one week – 83!. Legacy projects were launched - the Second Niger Bridge, the Dangote Refinery, housing projects etc. President Buhari left behind a much stronger statement as he departed than he did when he arrived. Many have interpreted this to mean that he tried to set a trap for his successor. I don’t think so. After all, the transition that Nigeria has seen is APC to APC, it is more or less the same party remaining in power even if it is the ACN wing of the APC coalition replacing the old ANPP/CPC wing. The former headed by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu formed an alliance with others to get rid of the Jonathan government in 2015. At the risk of sounding superstitious and protean, I think the events of the past week would seem to point to one thing- retributive justice. Karma is truly a bitch. The God of Jonathan would seem to be at work. 

In the Holy Bible (1 and 2 Samuel), the story is well told of Jonathan’s faith in God. He did not ascend to the throne because of his father, Saul’s sin, and he may have died in battle at Mount Gilboa, but students of the Word will remember his valiant outreach against the Philistines. He told his armor bearer: “it may be that the Lord will work for us…”  (1 Samuel 14: 1-15). In the midst of the onslaught on members of the Jonathan administration in 2015, after the general elections of that year, the persecution was so much by the new administration that people advised President Jonathan to speak up to defend his team or pay a visit to President Buhari to protest. One evening, President Jonathan told me in his library: “Reuben there is no point… after God, it is government and government can do and undo. But what I believe is that our God will fight for us”. The reader is advised to fill in the gaps as you may deem fit, but I have chosen to use the above title, advisedly in reference to that 2015 conversation and in the limited context of the current outrage over the fuel subsidy removal debacle. Outrage is even a simple word in the context of the brewing crisis. My friend and brother, Patrick Obahiagbon, the grammarian describes the emerging situation as “supercalifragilisticcepalalidocious.” I have since given up searching for that word in the English language dictionary, simply because I have a deadline to meet to submit this piece to the editor. But Obahiagbon’s word twists the tongue in the same manner in which current events in Nigeria are twisting the mind. 

It is a known fact that in January 2012 when President Jonathan’s administration announced the deregulation of the downstream sector, otherwise known as fuel subsidy removal, the same people who opposed the government and organized protests at Ojota, Lagos, Abuja, Minna, Ilorin, and in other parts of Nigeria, even in London, are the same people who have now since returned to the same original arguments about the non-sustainability of the subsidy regime. When they wanted power, they whipped up sentiments against President Jonathan. At Ojota in Lagos, they carried coffins, they portrayed Jonathan in a derogatory manner, they danced, wore specially made T-shirts, they served designer jollof rice. They called it “Occupy Nigeria.” The Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress were involved and they had the backing of the opposition. There were casualties. The government stood its ground. Then Minister of the Economy and Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, now WTO Director-General threatened to resign if the government reversed itself. The CBN Governor at the time, HRM Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was one of the more outspoken defenders of the simple proposition that fuel subsidy was unsustainable. The Jonathan administration had proposed a 120% increase in the price of petrol. Hell was let loose. In Ojota, speeches were made by civil society leaders: Pastor Tunde Bakare, Dr. Tunji Braithwaite and a host of others. Many believed that the 2012 “Occupy Nigeria” protest was a major cause of the Jonathan administration’s early loss of goodwill. It was all politics though. But ironically, the same people who turned the matter into partisan politics, upon assumption of power in 2015, started by increasing fuel price from N87 per litre to N145, later to N195 and they met little or no resistance indicating that the crisis of 2012 was indeed stage-managed. Not too long ago, a man I respect told me that President Tinubu did not sponsor the protests of 2012. But nobody has denied an article in circulation titled “Removal of Oil Subsidy: President Jonathan breaks social contract with the people – by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu” (January 11, 2012.)

I am tempted to quote the essay in extenso, but I guess, a few excerpts would be adequate. Tinubu wrote inter alia as follows: “I am not calling President Jonathan an evil man. I do not believe he is perverse. However, the economic ideas controlling him are so misguided and that they have a perverse impact. Because he is slave to wrong-headed economics, the people will become enslaved to greater misery. This crisis will bear his name and will be his legacy. The people now pay a steep tax for voting him into office. The removal of the subsidy is the Jonathan tax. This situation shows that ideas count more than personalities. People may occupy office but how that person performs depends on the ideas that occupy his mind.”

He added: “Though someday, Nigeria will have to remove the subsidy the time to do it is not now. This subsidy removal is ill-timed and violates the condition precedent necessary before such a decision is made. First, government needs to clean up and throw away the salad of corruption in the NNPC. Then proceed to lay the foundation for a mass transit system in the railways and road network with long term bonds and fully develop the energy sector towards revitalizing Nigeria’s economy and easing the burden any subsidy removal may have on the people.”That was Tinubu on the marble. 

As a witness to history, I know that before the Jonathan administration announced any deregulation of the downstream sector, the term we used then, he had set up a verification panel to study and advise the government on the subsidy regime. The team under the auspices of the Ministry of Finance was chaired by Aig Aig-Imoukhuede. The committee reported that the subsidy regime was a big scam, the play-field of rent collectors who submit fraudulent claims to the government and that 21 firms had stolen about N383 billion subsidy money. The proposed deregulation was to check rent-collection, inefficiency, arbitrage and smuggling. For these and other reasons, it was submitted that the subsidy regime was unsustainable. Yet another committee was set up to review the submissions of the Aig-Imoukhuede committee. The same conclusions were reached. Then the government embarked on consultations with a broad spectrum of stakeholders. As the President’s spokesperson and media adviser, it was part of my job to take notes and mobilize my team to provide communications infrastructure support. Meetings were held at the main conference centre at the Villa, House 11 and sometimes at the First Lady’s Conference Room. Ahead of the announcement of the fuel subsidy removal as it became known, the Jonathan administration also set up a Subsidy Reinvestment Committee and announced palliatives. Key government officials were given time off to travel to their constituencies to explain to the people that the policy would be in the best interest of the poor.  

I have quoted Asiwaju Tinubu at length. Please has he now heeded his own advice of 2012? He was sworn in as President on May 29, and he promptly slammed fuel subsidy removal on the people. Nobody knows when and how, if any, consultation was carried out. The conversation about subsidy removal has been mainly elitist. Nobody has tried to speak to the people, or give them hope, the same hope that is said to be the original mission of the Tinubu administration. Anderson, Brady and Bullock (1978), E. Young and L. Quinn (2002) and Augustine Eneanya (2020) in their analysis of the public policy making process agree that no matter how valid a public policy may be, it is important to secure multi-stakeholder adoption of the agenda to generate a sense of ownership and easy implementation. By dictating to the people on the first day in office, without even any attempt at communication which is central to policy-making, the Tinubu administration obviously misses the theory and the strategy. Trying to intimidate organized labour, or relying on the politics of divide and rule also misses the point. Social problems are complex, they cannot be resolved with arrogance or hypocrisy as has been well-exposed. 

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Peter Obi and Atedo Peterside have reportedly asked President Tinubu to apologize to President Jonathan. Of what use would the apology be in the circumstance? Buhari has thrown the Gordian knot into Tinubu’s laps. He should untie it. The irony is that his own hands are tied.  He won’t be able to blame Buhari for the problems of Nigeria as Buhari did to his own predecessor. Act One, Scene One: we will watch as the movie unfolds. 

Yesterday, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, was sworn in as the 16th President, Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria along with his Vice President, Kashim Shettima, GCON, at the 7th major transition ceremony since the return of Nigeria to civilian democratic rule in 1999. The event was held at the Eagle Square, Abuja. For decades an episodic military interregnum placed Nigeria in dire straits but 1999 was a turning point for the country. Yesterday’s event was a further confirmation of how Nigeria has managed in the last 24 years, to sustain democratic rule, despite the challenges. Yesterday, May 29, marked the end of an era, and the beginning of another. For about two weeks, President Muhammadu Buhari, as he then was, and his family had been moved to the Glass House. For those who do not know the configuration of the Presidential Villa, the Glass House is a small bungalow, a meeting place, a three bed-room structure, where when a President is in power, he holds occasional meetings, usually of the high state security variety, but when a President is on his way out, he and his family are moved to that small space.

The usual excuse is that the main Villa is undergoing renovation to allow access for the in-coming President and his family who would have taken over the renovation of the residence, the choice of furniture, the selection of dinner-ware, and the arrangement of the seat of power. The more symbolic part of the diplomacy here, is that the Glass House is located very close to the exit and entrance to the Official Residence. One of the major aspects of the theory and practice of diplomacy is symbolic representation. Moving the outgoing President close to a smaller space and very close to the exit gate such as The Glass House at the Presidential Villa, is a subtle reminder that the time is up, the game is over, and that both the President and his family can begin to readjust psychologically. The President and his “main body” (I once explained what this means in this column) would leave the Villa on the morning of the hand-over straight to the Eagle Square, and go through the process of the inauguration of a new term, the main highlights of which are: the handing over of the instruments of governance to a new team, the change of military colours from the old to the new, and the swearing-in protocols in line with Constitutional provisions.

The convoy that takes the President to the Eagle Square would immediately shift to the new President. It is that convoy that will take the new President and the new First lady and their team back to the Villa. A standby protocol team, a different, pared-down convoy, takes the outgoing President to the airport, straight to his new destination as a former President, that is - his home-town. As soon as he is accompanied back home, the same convoy withdraws immediately to Abuja, and reports to the new dispensation. Nigerians are very cynical about how they go about this end of tenure protocol. This being an APC-to-APC transition, President Buhari may well have been allowed privileges that would be denied an outgoing opposition President. In our time in 2015, I can say categorically, that some of the state officials who left with us from State House to Eagle Square did not even bother to follow us to the Airport. They simply melted into the Buhari crowd. Many of them were looking for re-appointments. When we got to the Airport, we were locked out of the Presidential Lounge. The then outgoing President and his departing entourage had to loiter around in an outer space, before we all eventually had to board the aircraft to Bayelsa. The boys who had the keys to the Presidential Lounge had vanished. They became unidentifiable. This was the same Lounge we had used only a week earlier. President Buhari was of course not subjected to such embarrassment yesterday as the reports have shown and that means with his party holding on to power, he has enjoyed the pleasure of a respectful exit. He probably did not even bother to wait awhile at the airport.

This explains all the triumphal ceremonies that we have witnessed beyond state protocol and etiquettes in the last few days in the lead up to the arrival of the new administration. There was much that was beyond the control of the state establishment. Outgoing Ministers brought masquerades to organize and serenade their own farewells. The National Association of Witches and Wizards delivered on their promise that they would be on the ground before May 29 to ensure that there would be no disruptions. Senator Shehu Sani has quipped on Twitter that he was surprised that the witches and wizards were seen in buses, entering Abuja: why didn’t they fly into Abuja with their “osoro moniga” wings? The witches and wizards of Nigeria probably knew better. But now we know that witches and wizards also board buses and trains, and that expands our fears and anxieties. They even staged a street demonstration in support of Tinubu and Shettima. Was February 25, 2023, a witchcraft exercise? Not surprisingly, the Christian leaders of Nigeria have spoken up with Pastor Paul Enenche (Dunamis International Church) quoted as proclaiming that Christian leaders are in charge. What a country! On the eve of the handing over ceremony in Nigeria, we had to be reminded again that religion is a major, divisive issue in this country. It has always been. Nigerian politics is dominated by religion, ethnicity, and every possible centrifugal factor in the books.

Nonetheless, on May 28, on the eve of his departure, President Muhammadu Buhari gave a farewell speech in which he told Nigerians that Tinubu is the best candidate among all candidates and that Nigerians have chosen well. He praised the aggrieved political parties and candidates for choosing “to go to court” and advised that they should accept “the decision of our courts”. Whatever the courts decide, it is obvious that some of the political stakeholders would remain inconsolable as they have shown in their reactions to the ruling on whether or not the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its then Vice Presidential candidate, were guilty of double nomination under Sections 35 and 84(2) of the Electoral Act 2022. Costs were awarded against the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). The Court dismissed the PDP as “a busy body and a meddlesome interloper.” Similarly, the request by the Labour Party that the proceedings at the Presidential Election Tribunal should be televised was dismissed as impossible because there is no such provision in the law. There has been an attempt by the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal to respond to the pressures being mounted in certain quarters that election petitions should be determined expeditiously, and this: when the Tribunal asked the political parties involved in the dispute to consolidate their petitions and that the court would treat the petitions together.

Still the Tribunal has until September 16 before the 180 days provided for in Section 285 of the 1999 Constitution expires. Thereafter, appeals before the Supreme Court have a time-frame of an additional 60 days. We are looking, it seems, at some time before the end of the year. By then, the Tinubu administration would have settled in nicely. Ministers would have been appointed; over 5, 000 possibilities for political patronage would have been explored and fixed. Already, some of the persons who worked on the Tinubu/Shettima campaign have been given national honours in the former President’s last superintendence over that state function. The Supreme Court being a court of public policy is not likely to rock the boat. With what we saw yesterday at the inauguration ceremonies in Abuja, the pomp, the pageantry, the colourful transfer of power, witnessed by leaders from all over the world, even with China, United States and Venezuela whose Vice President was in attendance, it would take an earthquake to uproot the APC from the Presidential Villa. But would that discourage those who have raised serious objections and who do not agree that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the best candidate on February 25? President Buhari cannot be so sure. The worst that may well happen is that one or two of the most vociferous Presidential candidates would be “offered something” in Nigerian parlance and they would go quiet. The inauguration would be a test of integrity and character on all fronts.

Nobody should be surprised if any Presidential candidate in the last elections accepts the position of a Senior Special Assistant or a Minister. It would be rationalized by his allies that he is committed to serving Nigeria. Others may just accept financial settlements and keep quiet thereafter. In this same country, we have seen former Ministers at the Federal level who went back to their states to serve as errand boys and girls. Opportunism is that other factor that drives Nigerian politics, not ideology, hardly common sense. Indeed, no one should be surprised if the National Association of Witches and Wizards also shows up to demand a seat in the Federal Executive Council!

One other point of interest is the following excerpt from the outgone President’s broadcast at 7 am on Sunday, May 28. “I am leaving behind an electoral process that guarantees that votes count, results are credible, elections are fair and transparent and the influence of money in politics is reduced to the barest minimum. And Nigerians can elect leaders of their choice.” I can hear loud yawns…Yesterday’s inauguration, however, moved Nigeria quickly forward as President Buhari returned to Daura to attend to his cows and sheep, who, he tells us, are better behaved than Nigerians. But while preparing to leave, within two weeks, he had signed more than 11 bills, leaving out the Sexual Harassment Bill. He awarded National Honours to over 340 persons. He re-named airports after historical figures. He took the sole credit for the Second Niger Bridge and the Dangote Refinery. He also got the National Assembly to amend the CBN Act to push ways and means from the 5% threshold to 15% and he pushed the responsibility for removing fuel subsidy to the Tinubu administration. He is now in Daura, probably laughing at us.

The ball is now in Tinubu’s court. His campaign was based on the slogan: “Emilokan”, now the subject of academic inquiries, including an international research project to which I have been invited to make a contribution. “Emilokan” means “It is my turn.” And now it is his turn at the helm of affairs in Nigeria. The Godfather who is now King. A defined life ambition achieved. He refers to it as a “SUBLIME” moment for our country where “a better future emerges with our improved capacity to create that future”. He promised “to mend and heal this nation, not tear and injure it”. He extended his hands of fellowship to all who contested against him in the political process across all divides. “For me, political coloration has faded away. All I see are Nigerians… you are all my people”. This is an APC President who says he belongs to everybody, and hopefully, this one will not compare us to cows and sheep!

His inauguration speech went further to outline and define his understanding of what he called “the new Nigerian Ideal” in the shape of principles and priorities: Security, the economy, jobs, agriculture, infrastructure, fuel subsidy, monetary policy. President Tinubu had not yet finished his speech before the news networks ran with the headline: “Breaking News; Tinubu Removes Fuel Subsidy.” I have tried to take a look at that inauguration speech again. Is there a categorical statement as to the removal of fuel subsidy? Students of language should go back to that paragraph on fuel subsidy and break it down. Compare same to the paragraph on Infrastructure which begins with “We shall…” Go further to the paragraph on “Monetary Policy” and pay attention to the use of the word “need” and “needs”. We are told: “The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate”. Must work towards? Candidly, a well-written piece from the point of view of presidential rhetoric by some guys who believe that they are smart, but there is nothing concrete here that anyone can hold on to. The devil is in the details. If the President has decided to remove fuel subsidy, he must do so in more elaborate details and offer concrete information as to how he intends to go about it. How? When? But just see right on Day One, the confusion that the lack of clarity has caused. What are the key contributions that the Tinubu team has put on the table? Which Central Bank is going to unify the exchange rates? What are the plans to deal with fiscal deficit and debt burden? Sound bites are not enough. While the key sound bites about fuel subsidy removal and a unified exchange rate would give hope to the international financial system that had always asked Nigeria to adopt orthodox economic policies across board, the real taste of the pudding is in the outcome for average Nigerians.

We are dealing however, with people who understand the game of power. If Buhari and his CPC/ANPP wing of the coalition that drove the PDP out of power in 2015, and held on to it for eight years, thought they all got it worked out now, the ACN wing of that coalition and probably the most powerful wing of it, has taken over power. We look forward to the internal drama within the APC superstructure, as the party tries to balance expectations within the party. Beyond that, has anyone noticed that the Yoruba establishment is suddenly aligning with Tinubu? Even those Yoruba leaders who threatened to go on exile have publicly said that they are no longer going anywhere, and that they have forgiven him. When a group of Yoruba ultra-nationalists stormed a radio station, Amuludun FM, in Ibadan over the weekend, trying to reject Nigeria, they were arrested and promptly disowned by the Oodua Nation leadership. A Yoruba man is now President again, Oodua leaders don’t want anybody re-enacting “The Mystery Gunman” incident of the 1960s. The assailants have been paraded in the full glare of cameras even if it is illegal to do so.

We have been told that Tinubu will hit the ground running. He has enough capacity to make quick announcements with regard to key personnel. But the important thing is how he intends to build that “Ideal Nigeria” with all the rot that the Buharists are trying to cover up, and how to fulfil the promise of hope and unity. The journey ahead belongs to us all, whatever shape it assumes. Even with all that excitable, celebratory dancing by the President and VP yesterday, the road may be rough.