The devaluation of the naira has increased Nigeria’s debt profile by N20.6trn trillion in five months.

A data analysis by Daily Trust indicates that the new borrowing plans by the federal government will see the total debt level hit N89.2 trillion before the end of the year.

If shared to Nigeria’s 213 million people, each citizen will be owing N418,779 to the outside world.

The country’s total debt, both domestic and external, was $113.4 billion or N87.4 trillion as of June 30, according to a data sourced from the website of the Debt Management Office (DMO).

The amount is three times the size of the country’s debt in 2005 when the Paris Club forgave $18bn of that amount.

Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of US$1 to N770.38 as of June 30 was used in converting the external debt to naira by the DMO.

The domestic debt includes the N22.7 trillion Ways and Means Advances at the CBN for which the approval of the National Assembly (NASS) to securitize it was received in May 2023.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Wale Edun, had, last month, at the World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings in Marrakech, Morroco, announced a plan by the government to obtain $1.5 billion in budget support from the World Bank.

This would, if granted, push the country’s debt stock to $114.9bn or N89.2trn, using the official exchange rate of N776.4/dollar.

This excludes the new plan to borrow $7.8bn and €100m which the president on Wednesday requested the Senate to approve as part of the 2022 – 2024

A ‘what if’ analysis of the debt profile indicates that if the exchange rate had remained at N461 to $1, according to the Nigerian Exchange Rate Archive by the CBN on May 30,  Nigeria’s debt stock would have been only N57.6 trillion.

Following the devaluation of the portion of the debt owed to external creditors which is denominated in United States dollars, the total debt stock increased by N20.6 trillion as a result of the depreciation of about N315 per dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market  (NAFEM) window from May 30th to date.

Analysis of debt

As of June, Nigeria’s external debt was $43.1bn; and domestic debt, $70.3 bn.

A total of $20.7bn is owed to multi-lateral organisations; $5.5bn is bilateral; $15.6bn is commercial (Euro bonds); $931m is a promissory note (non-interest notes issued to settle arrears of federal contractors) and $300m, syndicated loans.

The federal government’s portion of the external debt of $43.1bn is $38.8bn, accounting for 90 percent of the debt; while the 36 states and the FCT account for $4.3bn accounting for 10 percent of the debt stock.

The most indebted state, from the breakdown of the $4.3bn debt stock, is Lagos with $1.2bn followed by Kaduna ($569m), Edo ($258m), Bauchi ($170m) and Cross River ($153m).

The least indebted states in the index are Borno ($18m), Taraba and Yobe with $21m each, Jigawa ($26m), Benue ($29m) and Plateau ($31m).

New debt stock a threat-DMO

The Debt Management Office (DMO), in its recent report, titled, ‘Market Access Country-Debt Sustainability Analysis (MAC-DSA)’ for 2022, said  Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio in 2023 was 73.5 percent, describing it as unsustainable and a threat.

The MAC-DSA is a template used to analyse debt levels to determine future debt sustainability.

The DMO said the results of last year’s MAC-DSA showed that the total public debt-to-GDP ratio was projected to jump to 37.1 percent in 2023, relative to 23.4 percent as of September 2022.

Also in a recent report, KPMG said Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio might exceed 100 percent in 2023.

In its macroeconomic snapshot, the professional services firm raised concerns over Nigeria’s risk of sliding into critical debt servicing problems unless urgent actions were explored to significantly raise revenue. In 2022, Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio was 80.6 percent — a figure far above World Bank’s suggested 22.5 percent for low-income countries like Nigeria.

‘With FGN revenue to GDP ratio of 4.49% as of December 2022, Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio may surpass 100% in 2023, which will limit the fiscal space and the government’s ability to pay for its operations and functions, unless urgent measures are taken to build revenue,” KPMG said.

It advised the government to establish well-thought-out guidelines and frameworks for borrowing, focusing on sustainable debt management and giving investments that produce long-term economic returns top priority.

Meanwhile, last Thursday, the CBN began clearing the backlog of foreign exchange obligations estimated at about $7bn.

This intervention had seen the naira appreciate at the parallel on Friday evening as the dollar exchanged for below N950 from the N1,150 it was earlier in the morning same day.

 

No fewer than 13 farmers have been killed while several others are missing as suspected Boko Haram insurgents reportedly attacked rice farmers on their farms in Mafa Local Government Area of Borno State Sunday evening.

It was gathered that the insurgents stormed rice fields and rounded up the farmers who were harvesting their farm produce in Karkut and Koshebe General Area, Mafa LGA, slaughtering them with knives.

According to Civilian Joint Task Force sources, 13 dead bodies have been recovered as search for missing people continues.

“We are sad this incident is happening again this year, we lost more than a dozen of our farmers from Zabarmari who were attacked on Sunday evening while working on their rice fields in Mafa LGA.

“The whole town is sad and we are mourning as we speak. Security agencies and CJTF are still searching for those who are missing but 13 dead bodies have so far been recovered,” a source said.


A top security source said the terrorists who were on motorcycles devided themselves into three groups before attacking the farmers.


The source said the assailants did not use their guns, instead they used cutlasses and knives.


“Nine bodies were recovered as at Yesterday (Sunday) night, while the search for others who fled the attacks are still ongoing,” he said.

The Inspector General of Police, (IGP) Kayode Egbetokun, has called on Nigerians to take pictures of any police personnel on election duty without a tag on.

He made the call while speaking on Channels Television’s and Kimpact Development Initiative’s joint People’s Townhall on Election Security on Sunday night, a few days before the November 11 off-cycle governorship elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states.

When the anchor of the programme asked if Nigerians could take pictures of police personnel on illegal duty and send them to the management of the Nigeria Police Force for prompt action, the IGP responded in the affirmative.

Egbetokun said “no police officer is expected to provide an escort on Election Day”, adding that any personnel found escorting any politician to the polling stations on election day is on illegal duty.

He said: “Policemen who provide escort to VIPs are not supposed to provide that escort on the election day. Election day is an exemption from that duty for them. So, no VIP will be allowed to move around with a police escort on the day of election and anyone that does that is violating the electoral law and is liable to prompt arrest.”

The IGP warned that the Force would not spare any personnel caught breaking the law on election day, noting that allowances for security personnel on election duties had been approved.

He also warned criminals to steer clear of voting units, threatening that anyone caught violating electoral laws would be arrested and prosecuted.


The IGP assured that the police would reduce incidences of violence on election day as personnel have been adequately trained for the job at hand.

“We are ready for this election, we have been able to deploy adequately for this election. In Bayelsa, we will be covering 2,224 polling units and we have enough men and resources to cover those polling units,” he stated.

“We have also made adequate arrangements for both Imo and Kogi. We have done our threat assessments, and we already know how to carry out our deployments which we have already done.

“I want to assure you that the police and other security agencies are ready for this election and we are sure it is going to be hitch-free,” he said.

Naira has continued a downward slide in the West African sub-region trading at N2,010 per CFA1000 at the close of business last Friday.

Naira traded at N1,870 per CFA1000 at the open market at the weekend. While, as of Thursday, it was sold at N1,800 at one of the nation’s busiest and most popular land borders, the Seme-Krake border in the Badagry area of Lagos.

 

The continuous downward slide of the naira has forced most traders in the cross-border business to abandon their businesses.

This has also affected the market prices of commodities, with petrol now selling at an all-time high of over CFA 1000 (about N2,010) per litre, making smuggling of petrol now a lucrative business since the removal of subsidy in May.

 

CFA franc scarcity forces markets to transact in naira in Niger

Markets in Niger Republic’s communities bordering Nigeria are now carrying out cash transactions in naira due to the scarcity of CFA francs in circulation in the country.

According to residents and traders interviewed by our correspondent, the naira is in full circulation in provinces that border the Nigerian states of Borno Yobe, Kano, Katsina and Sokoto.

A resident of Diffa, Aminu Abdulkadir, who spoke to Daily Trust on the phone, said since the military coup in the uranium-rich country, the CFA Franc has become very scarce in the country.

 

 

 

“Now, before you see a single CFA franc in the Diffa market, you will see the different naira denominations in circulation. It’s what everybody is using here, including the government officials.

“The only area where we don’t transact with naira is at filling stations and in remittance of government revenues,” he said.

He said many POS operators from Nigeria have established business in markets around Diffa, Gigime, Boso, Kablewa, Jakori, Garin Wanzam, Kinchambi, Tumar and some parts of  Maradi province that border Nigerian states of Katsina and Kano.

A journalist in Niger, who preferred a single name said the scarcity of the CFA franc has compelled them to switch to the naira, which is easily available.

“We usually trade in both currencies before, but the scarcity of the CFA franc in the border communities has forced us to trade more in naira,” he said.

 

He attributed the scarcity of the CFA franc to the mop-up by government officials who suspected that France was behind the cash crunch.

“We were told that apart from the Niger Franc, they are stocking cash in the form of Chad and Burkina Faso CFA francs.

“However, other sources are blaming your people (Nigerians), of coming into Niger to pack millions of CFA franc, and return to Nigeria, where they convert it to dollars and make profit,” he alleged.

He said, recently, the value of the CFA franc has been appreciating against the naira. “I can’t explain why but the value of the naira against the franc kept falling. A few weeks back, the exchange rate was 1100 CFA franc to N1,200 but it’s now between N1600 to N1700,” he added.

Cross border business no longer lucrative – Traders

Similarly, a bag of 50kg of rice sold for between N9,000 and N12,500 has risen sharply to about N35,000 across the Seme border since the naira started a free fall.

A carton of frozen poultry products which was formerly sold at N8,000 is now sold at N28,000.

Nigerians who travel across the border to buy goods are now lamenting that cross-border business is no longer lucrative.

A trader at the Vespa market in the Ojo area of Lagos, John Ebube, who spoke to our correspondent said the naira started a downward slide in the last two months.

 

 

 

According to him, the naira was traded at about N1200 to CFA 1000 in August, but that between August and October, it crashed to N2,010.

As stakeholders in the business landscape express relief over the intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange market in recent times, foreign airlines operating in Nigeria have disclosed that about 90 per cent of their trapped funds have not been cleared.

They spoke just as the domestic carriers hailed the CBN initiative, saying they also have their funds trapped before the CBN.

They spoke in Lagos during a stakeholders’ forum convened by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo.

The CBN was said to have started clearing the Forex backlog to commercial banks in order to ease pressure on the foreign exchange. The intervention has seen the naira appreciating by over 20 per cent since last week in the parallel market.

Part of the backlog was the trapped funds belonging to foreign airlines operating in Nigeria amounting to over $700m according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

But the Chairman of International Airline Operators, Mr. Chima Kingsley who spoke at the stakeholders’ forum at the weekend said, “As of Thursday, the international banks have received dollars from the CBN. But this accounts for less than 10 per cent of the trapped funds.

“The bulk of the blocked funds are with Nigerian commercial banks. The bulk of the money has not been paid,” he said.

From the perspective of the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines, Prof. Obiora Okonkwo said the domestic carriers also require enough forex to operate, saying their funds are also trapped in CBN.


“We are buying forex like smugglers,” he declared, adding, “We are happy with the news that the government is clearing the backlog. We also have trapped funds. For instance, my airline has $3m trapped in CBN.”

He said a Nigerian carrier has one of its aircraft parked in a maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility abroad and it has accumulated over $3m in parking fees alone because it is unable to source forex to pay for the service.


The Minister who said the CBN’s intervention would continue in a matter of weeks assured both foreign and domestic airlines that efforts are ongoing to address the forex challenge.

“The process of clearing the money has started. The President gave a marching order to the CBN,” he said.

Also speaking, Area Manager, West and Central Africa for IATA, Dr. Samson Fatokun said there was the need to reduce the Nigerian aviation sector operating cost.


According to him, the aviation industry in Nigeria needs specific sector focused support.

The Court of Appeal in Abuja has sacked Musa Ilyasu Kwankwaso of the All Progressives Congress and reinstated Yusuf Umar Datti of the New Nigeria People’s Party in the Kura/Madobi/Garun Malam Federal Constituency Election.

The three-panel led by Justice Tunde Oyebamiji Awotoye allowed an Appeal by Yusuf Datti and averred that the tribunal was wrong to have counted the date of the Appellant’s resignation on the date of his party’s primary election and that Section 77 of the Electoral Act was misapplied, saying no court has jurisdiction on the issue of membership of the party.


Details later…

 

The Federal High Court in Abuja has issued an order restraining the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) from further denying issuing the Certificate being paraded by Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State.

Justice Inyang Ekwo, in a judgment on Monday, held that evidence before the court showed that Mbah properly participated in the NYSC programme and that the NYSC issued him a certificate of completion.

Justice Ekwo held that the NYSC misrepresented facts in its claim that it did not issue the certificate Mbah submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) before the last governorship election.

The judge faulted the NYSC for not producing before the court, two files containing information about Mbah’s participation in the programme, noting that the corps handled the case with levity.

Justice Ekwo, therefore, awarded N5 million in damages against the NYSC, and in favour of Mbah.

Recall that the Enugu governor was alleged to have forged his NYSC certificate to contest for the governorship election on March 18, 2023.

Mbah had, before his inauguration on May 29, sued the NYSC and its Director, Corps Certification, Ibrahim Muhammad, for publishing a disclaimer denying the issuance of a discharge certificate to him on January 6, 2003.

Justice Ekwo had, on May 15, restrained the NYSC, Muhammad and any of their agents from, henceforth, engaging in such publication pending the hearing and determination of the substantive matter.

 

A group of young individuals from the northern region of Nigeria has appealed to President Bola Tinubu to steer clear of what they deem as biased appointments, reminiscent of those made by his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari.

These youths, operating under the banner of the Northern Youth Leaders Forum (NYLF), have acknowledged that northerners may not have a legitimate basis for protesting against Tinubu’s perceived uneven appointments. However, they have expressed their viewpoint that the nation should persist differently.

Certain northern leaders have criticized President Tinubu, alleging that he has shown favouritism toward the southern part of the country in his selection of appointees. For example, Islamic cleric Ahmad Gumi has claimed that Tinubu appointed more Southern Christians to key positions while disregarding northerners who purportedly assisted him in gaining power.

Speaking to the media in Abeokuta, the capital of Ogun State, on Sunday, the National President of NYLF, Elliot Afiyo, stated that Tinubu is perpetuating the alleged imbalance in appointments inherited from Buhari.

Afio revealed that from 2015 to 2023, Buhari established an appointment imbalance of 80 percent favouring the north and 20 percent favouring the south.

Nonetheless, he has implored Tinubu not to replicate Buhari’s approach when choosing his appointees, emphasizing that “the nation must not persist in making the same mistakes.”

He pointed out that past Nigerian leaders, since the country’s independence, have engaged in biased appointments that favoured their regions at the expense of others.

The youth leader asserted that former President Olusegun Obasanjo attempted to rectify the imbalance when he assumed power in 1999.

“However, Buhari came in and widened the gap to 20/80. Even the northerners appointed by Buhari were not purely northerners. We now observe that President Tinubu’s appointments are leaning towards the South West.

“I would say that northerners may not have the grounds to protest against the perceived imbalance in appointments. But as enlightened citizens, I pose this question: Can we continue in this manner? Where is our nation headed? Therefore, there is an urgent need for us to restore balance,” he emphasized.

Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum (oil), has told Nigerians who to blame should the refineries in Port Harcourt and Warri fail to resume operation in December.

He said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited should be held responsible if the deadline for rehabilitating Port Harcourt and Warri crude oil refineries is not met.


The Minister disclosed this to journalists after the recent ministers’ retreat in Abuja.

Speaking on the completion of rehabilitation of the refineries and the December 2023 deadline, he stressed that NNPCL had assured him that phase 1 of the work would be delivered.

He added that other phases of the refinery rehabilitation would be achieved by next year.

He emphasized the need to boost crude oil production capacity in the country.

“Yes, the refinery’s rehabilitation, if you remember, was started by the previous administration and as part of the President’s directive. I have gone around all the refineries, and from what they have briefed me, Port Harcourt has three phases.

“So Phase 1 will be ready by the end of this year. I am not the one who is directly in charge of rehabilitation; it is the NNPCL, and they have told me, and I am holding them accountable.

“For the Warri refinery, they said Phase 1 will be ready by the end of the year. Phases 2 and 3 in Port Harcourt will be ready next year, and the whole Kaduna refinery will be ready by the end of next year.

“That is what they said, and I am holding them accountable for their words. I believe that those refineries, if we can achieve some level of rehabilitation by the end of this year, will also improve our domestic refining capacity.

“That’s why I said unless we produce sufficient quantities, even if the refineries are rehabilitated, there will be no feedstock. So, my challenge is to ramp up production to see how we can feed not only the big refineries but also the modular ones. These are the real employers of labour, and they will do the magic,” he said.

The Minister and NNPCL have consistently insisted that December 2023 is the deadline for the resumption of operation of Port Harcourt Refining Company Limited (PHRC) and Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC).

The Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, has announced plans to redeploy the Commissioner of Police in Imo State, Mohammed Barde.

The IGP announced the development at Channels Television’s People’s Townhall on Election Security on Sunday in Abuja.

 

This is coming a few days before the off-season governorship polls in Imo, Bayelsa, and Kogi states on November 11, 2023.

“I am aware that there have been allegations on social media against the Commissioner of Police in Imo State but for this election, we are changing the commissioner of police in Imo,” the IGP said.

According to Egbetokun, the purpose of changing the Imo CP is to maintain impartiality, and not because he was found guilty of the charges brought against him.

Recall that the Labour Party had also backed demands for the CP and other officials who were allegedly involved in the recent attack on Ajaero in the state to be immediately redeployed.

On Wednesday, Ajaero was attacked and brutalized while mobilizing workers for a protest over unpaid wages.

The attack on Ajaero has sparked outrage among the Labour Party and its supporters, who are calling for swift action to bring the perpetrators to justice.

[OpinionNigeria]