THE suspension of the Governor and House of Assembly of Plateau State and their replacement temporarily by an Administrator by President Olusegun Obasanjo are the greatest and most brazen illegality committed by any government in Nigeria, colonial, military or civilian.

Emergency powers comprise two distinct powers, viz (i) power to declare a state of emergency; and (ii) power to make laws and to execute them with respect to matters within exclusive state competence in normal time, and to overstep, with some exceptions, the limitations on power arising from the constitutional guarantee of fundamental rights in chapter IV. Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution, relied on by President Obasanjo for his action in Plateau State, grants only the first power, but not the second; it only empowers the President to declare a state of emergency in situations there specified. It is not intended for present purposes to go into the question whether or not the state of emergency in Plateau State was validly declared under section 305.

A state of emergency validly declared under section 305 does not by itself, bring into play the second power. It is a fundamental principle of the Rule of Law that executive acts must be authorised by law, at any rate, insofar as they affect the rights and interests of an individual, and that the Executive is not the one to confer the necessary legal authorisation on itself. The principle is well established by many authorities. As far back as 1921 in the celebrated case, Eshugbayi Eleko v. Government of Nigeria, the Privy Council applied it to invalidate the deportation of the then Oba of Lagos by the colonial Governor of Nigeria without authorisation by law, which as the sole legislature for the country at the time, he could have conferred on himself by simply issuing an Ordinance, but which he failed to do, relying instead on what he called his inherent authority as the Executive. In a judgement that has become a great constitutional landmark, the Privy Council, speaking through Lord Atkin, said that the Executive "can only act in pursuance of the powers given to him by law."

The section in the 1960 and 1963 Constitutions (section 65 and 70 respectively) authorising the declaration of a state of emergency also empowered Parliament to make "laws for Nigeria or any part thereof with respect to matters not included in the Legislative Lists as may appear to Parliament to be necessary or expedient for the purpose of maintaining or securing peace, order and good government during any period of emergency" (section 65(1) 1960; section 60(1) 1963; emphasis supplied.)

Pursuant to the power conferred by this provision, Parliament enacted the Emergency Powers Act 1961 authorising the Governor General-in-Council to make "such regulations as appear to him to be necessary or expedient for the purpose of maintaining or securing peace, order and good government in Nigeria, or any part thereof during any period of emergency." Altogether 12 regulations were made by the Governor General-in-Council under the Act. Of these the most far-reaching was the Emergency Powers (General) Regulations, 1962, which empowered the Prime Minister to appoint an Administrator for Western Nigeria (the emergency area.) The Administrator was authorised by the Regulations to administer the government of the Region, with power to legislate by means of orders for the peace, order and good government of the Region, and with full executive powers. He then suspended the Regional Governor, Premier, Ministers, and House of Assembly.

The Emergency Powers Act 1961 and the Emergency Powers (General) Regulations 1962 clearly went beyond what was contemplated by the enabling provision in Section 65(1) of the 1960 Constitution; they were a perversion of power, but they at least provided some measure of legal authorisation and basis for the appointment of the Administrator by the Prime Minister, and the suspension of the Regional Governor, Premier, Ministers and House of Assembly by the Administrator. The Act and the Regulations made under it lapsed by effluxion of time under Section 65(2) of the 1960 Constitution (section 70(2), 1963) that "any provision of law enacted in pursuance of this section shall have effect only during a period of emergency," so that they are not in force today as existing laws under Section 315 of the 1999 Constitution. They are not therefore reproduced in the laws of Nigeria 1990. Even supposing them to be existing law, they will be inconsistent with Section 11(4) and (5) of the 1999 Constitution, quoted below.

With the experience of the perversions of 1962 in mind, Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution (reproducing Section 265, 1979 Constitution) gives the Federal Government no emergency powers, legislative or executive, exercisable during a state of emergency declared under its provisions. It (i.e. Section 305) omits completely the power in Section 65(1) of the 1960 and Section 70(1) of the 1963 Constitution. The only provisions relevant upon the points are those in Section 11(3), (4) and (5) of the 1999 Constitution (same section number in the 1979 Constitution) which, again significantly, make no reference at all to an emergency declared in terms of section 305 (section 265, 1979 Constitution).

These provisions need to be reproduced in their precise wording in order to underline their underlying aim of avoiding the evil of perversion made possible by the 1960 and 1963 Constitution. Section 11:

(3) During any period when the Federation is at war, the National Assembly may make such laws for the peace, order and good government of the Federation or any part thereof with respect to matters not included in the Exclusive Legislative List as may appear to it to be necessary or expedient for the defence of the Federation"

"(4) At any time when any House of Assembly of a State is unable to perform its functions by reason of the situation prevailing in that state, the National Assembly may make such laws for the peace, order and good government of that state with respect to matters on which a House of Assembly may be necessary or expedient until such time as the House of Assembly is able to resume its functions, and any such laws enacted by the National Assembly pursuant to this section shall have effect as if they were laws enacted by the House of Assembly of the State.

Provided that nothing in this section shall be construed as conferring on the National Assembly power to remove the Governor or the Deputy Governor of the State from office."

"(5) For the purposes of subsection (4) of this section, a House of Assembly shall not be deemed to be unable to perform its functions so long as the House of Assembly can hold a meeting and transact business." (emphasis supplied)

The severest of the restrictions on the powers of the Federal Government under these provisions is that where a situation of an abnormal extraordinary nature is confined to the territory of one State and does not extend beyond its boundaries, then, even although a state of emergency has been declared in the state in terms of section 305, the National Assembly is not to assume power to make laws on matters within exclusive state competence unless the State House of Assembly is "unable to perform its functions by reason of the situation prevailing in that state" (section 11(4) - i.e. the situation prevailing in the state independently of, not one brought about by, a declaration of an emergency. Further, "a House of Assembly shall not be deemed to be unable to perform its function so long as the House of Assembly can hold a meeting and transact business" (section 11(5). Again, what is envisaged is inability to perform its functions arising from the situation prevailing in the State independently of, but not one brought about by, a declaration of an emergency.

Finally, the removal of a State Governor from office by reason solely of an emergency situation prevailing in the State, whether or not an emergency is formally declared under section 305, is completely and unequivocally procluded by the proviso in section 11(4), which declares that "nothing in this section shall be construed as conferring on the National Assembly power to remove the Governor or the Deputy Governor of the State from office." The Governor remains in office during such period with his executive powers undiminished, since by section 11(4) any "laws enacted by the National Assembly pursuant to this section shall have effect as if they were laws enacted by the House of Assembly of the State." He is the rightful authority to execute such laws by virtue of the provision in section 5(2) that the executive powers vested in him shall extend to "the execution and maintenance of the Constitution (and) all laws made by the House of Assembly." And if the National Assembly cannot, in the exercise of its power to make law under section 11(4), remove a State Governor, it cannot by law authorise the President to do so. The President has no inherent power to remove or suspend a Governor, anyway.

It follows that a State Governor elected into office under the 1999 Constitution cannot be removed from office by reason solely of an emergency validly declared under section 305 of that Constitution; in order words, there is nothing in the provisions of the 1999 Constitution relating to an emergency that can cause or be used to make a state Governor to "cease to hold office" within the meaning of section 180 of that Constitution.

All the military governments that have ruled Nigeria observed the Rule of Law at least to the extent of enacting laws (Decrees or Edicts) as a basis for their executive actions, especially executive actions affecting the rights or interests of individuals. There was seldom, if ever, an executive action of the military government not backed by law, a Decree or Edict, made normally prospectively, but sometimes retrospectively.

The suspension of the elected Governor and House of Assembly of Plateau State and their replacement by an Administrator by the democratic government of President Obasanjo without authorisation by law must rank as perhaps the greatest tragedy to befall the Rule of Law in Nigeria.`

Professor Nwabueze (SAN), a constitutional lawyer, is a member of The Patriots

culled from GUARDIAN, May 20, 2004

The Senate has entered a closed session to deliberate on President Bola Tinubu’s declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State and the suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara and other elected officials.

The closed session was announced after Senate President Godswill Akpabio read a letter from Tinubu at plenary on Thursday.

Senate leader Opeyemi Bamidele subsequently moved a motion for a closed session, pursuant to Order 135 of the Senate rules.

The motion was seconded by the Senate Minority Leader, Abba Moro.

Details shortly…

Visiting Ogoniland last week after my first visit in 1996 was a bittersweet experience. It was like traversing two worlds in less than three decades. Unbelievable! I went to Ogoni for the first time to chronicle the mess oil industry and the Nigerian state had made of Ogoniland.

Before oil was discovered in the Ogoni community of K-Dere, popularly called the Bomu oil fields, the territory made up of six kingdoms – Babbe, Eleme, Gokana, Ken-Khana, Nyo-Khana, and Tai – and now compressed into four local governments: Eleme, Gokana, Khana, and Tai, which covers approximately 1,000 square kilometers, with a population of about 832,000, according to 2006 census, was an agricultural and fishing society.

But all that changed with the coming of Bomu oil well 1 in 1958. Subsequently, Shell made more discoveries in other Ogoni communities, including Ebubu, Yorla, Bodo West and Korokoro, leading to the building of massive oil infrastructure, with crude oil pipelines crisscrossing the entire land. When the oil started spilling, nothing was done to mitigate the looming danger until it became a catastrophe. An environmental assessment conducted by the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, documented over 2,976 oil spills between 1976 and 1991. Consequentially, decades of unchecked spills and unmitigated gas flaring, which contaminated land, water and air, impacting the health and livelihoods of the people, turned what was hitherto the world’s third-largest mangrove ecosystem into an environmental disaster zone.

Faced with an existential threat, the people came up with the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People, MOSOP, a non-governmental organisation with the mandate to campaign non-violently to promote democratic awareness and protect Ogoni environment, vesting themselves with the Ogoni Bill of Rights in November 1990.

Tragically, barely four years thence, a split in the ranks of its leadership turned MOSOP into a movement for the death of Ogoni people, with the gruesome murder by an irate mob, on May 21, 1994, of Albert Badey, Edward Kobani, Theophilus Orage and Samuel Orage, in Giokoo community, Gokana. More Ogoni blood subsequently flowed when the ruling military junta blamed Ken Saro-Wiwa, a social rights activist, and eight of his compatriots for the killings. Tried and convicted, Saro-Wiwa, Saturday Dobee, Nordu Eawo, Daniel Gbooko, Paul Levera, Felix Nuate, Baribor Bera, Barinem Kiobel, and John Kpuine, were executed on November 10, 1995, in Port Harcourt.

So, the Ogoni I visited in 1996 was a community under siege, occupied by the Nigerian military, with the people distraught, melancholic and forlorn. They walked about, their heads bowed in utter defeat and surrender.

That was until 2008, when at the behest of the Nigerian government, the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, conducted an independent assessment of the environment and public health impacts of oil contamination in Ogoniland. Over a 14-month period, with over 4,000 samples collected for analysis from more than 200 sites, 122 kilometres of pipeline rights of way surveyed, more than 5,000 medical records reviewed and engagement of over 23,000 people at local community meetings, UNEP’s independent scientific assessment finding was damning: Ogoniland had become a wasteland, which, unless immediate remediation steps were taken, may well become the world’s worst ecological disaster.

The report, which was first published in 2011 indicated that pollution from over 50 years of oil operations in Ogoniland had penetrated further and deeper than many had thought. But nothing was done until the Federal Ministry of Environment in a 2016 Gazette, established the Hydrocarbon Pollution Remediation Project, HYPREP, to undertake environmental restoration in Ogoni, building on the 2011 UNEP report. This environmental restoration is turning out to be one of the world’s most wide-ranging and long-term oil clean-up exercise given the fact that contaminated drinking water, land, creeks and important ecosystems such as mangroves are being systematically brought back to full, productive health.

With the dual mandate of remediating hydrocarbon impacted communities and restoring livelihoods in Ogoniland, HYPREP has done an incredible job. It is to the HYPREP restored Ogoni community that I returned to last week. And it was a soul-lifting experience. Contrasted with the 1996 experience, Ogoni is a land on the cusp of renaissance. The air was fresh, the vegetation was greener, the rivers had palpable aquatic life and the people no longer walked about with their heads bowed. They rather had a spring in their step.

And the reason is simple. As Prof Nenibarini Zabbey, the project coordinator, said: “HYPREP has achieved significant milestones,” working endlessly to address the devastation caused by oil spills, gas flaring and other pollutants in the area.

Besides, beyond the core value of remediation, HYPREP is adding electricity, healthcare delivery services and potable water facilities to spur economic activities. “What we are doing is a sustainable clean-up project and we are in conformity with the original mandate of UNEP while we are also adding values,” he said.

The projects are breathtaking. For instance, at one of its 39 medium risk sites for soil and groundwater remediation at Ajen-Okpori, Eleme, Israel Sigalo, the team lead, remediation execution, environmental remediation unit of HYPREP, explained the incredible remediation processes and techniques. So far, 48 lots have been completed and certified by the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency, NOSDRA, in the first and second phases of the project, while 39 medium risk lots are ongoing.

Yet, it was another experience at Goi and Kpor, Gokana, where two of the 34 lots for the ongoing shoreline cleanup, witnessed active remediation activities. Peter Lenu, technical adviser to the project coordinator on shoreline cleanup explained how low-pressure active flushing of the sediments was deployed in removing hydrocarbon residue.

In Bomu, the host community for the mangrove project, well over 1.5 million mangrove seedlings have already been planted in HYPREP’s effort to recover 560 hectares of lost mangrove areas. Four million seedlings will be planted in the first phase of the project while a total 10 million seedlings will be planted over the restoration period, which holds significant benefit for restoration of ecosystem goods and services, fish production, climate change mitigation and adaptation. A sight of the healthy mangrove seedlings sprouting on the tidal flats of Bomu, was, in itself, rejuvenating.

But going beyond its core mandate, HYPREP has embarked on massive water project with water schemes in Alesa, Ebubu, Korokoro, Barako, Terabor, Kpean, Bomu, Kporghor, already completed. In the healthcare, a specialist hospital, with an oncology department as special feature, is nearing completion in Kpite Tai, as well as Buan cottage hospital in Ken-Khana. Besides, primary health centres in Bori, Terabor, Nchia and Kpite, are being strengthened, while health outreaches benefitting over 10,000 Ogonis are carried out. Moreover, the Ogoni health impact study, as recommended by the UNEP report of 2011, will be conducted by the World Health Organisation, WHO, this first quarter.

But it is in the area of livelihoods where 5,000 Ogoni women and youths trained in 20 skill sets and graduated with starter packs that the most intangible impacts are being made. There has also been training for 200 farmers, aviation training for 30 youths, 60 SMEs entrepreneurs empowered with N300,000 each, 40 Nano businesses empowered with N100,000 each, education support of N250,000 paid to 200 final year students and award of N200 million scholarship to 300 Ogoni post-graduate students (200 Masters and 100 Doctoral). Specialised skills training is billed to commence in mechatronics, seafaring and creative arts.

The sheer scale of the project is mindboggling. But what is even more astounding is the fact that most of the young men and women executing these highly technical jobs are Ogoni people. And to ensure sustainability, HYPREP is also building the Centre of Excellence for Environmental Restoration, CEER, a project Prof Zabbey described as “a monumental step forward in the remediation of hydrocarbon pollution in Ogoni and beyond.”

And in compliance with Federal Government’s directive that HYPREP should contribute to national food security, Prof. Zabbey announced an expansion of the Centre’s original remediation-related laboratories to include biotechnology, which he explained, will enhance phytoremediation studies and crop improvement research to contribute to national food security and sovereignty.

“We have never had it so good,” crowed Gideon Nwielaghi, an indigene Khana. “I never believed I would witness the restoration of Ogoniland in my lifetime.” He is not alone as that seems to be the singsong in the hitherto despoiled Ogoniland as HYPREP carries out its restoration magic.

[Vanguard]

The House of Representatives on Thursday passed and adopted the proclamation of President Tinubu through a voice vote with 243 members in attendance.

The House also made recommendations to the proclamation.

The House recommended that a national committee should be set up to mitigate and restore peace back to Rivers State.

Secondly, the National Assembly should take over the activities of the state Assembly within six months.

Details soon...

Vanguard News

The recent declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has effectively stripped the state of its autonomy, placing governance directly under the control of the Federal Executive Council (FEC). While the official justification for this drastic measure is to restore stability, the political reality is far more revealing.

This is not just federal intervention—it is a well-executed takeover that has cemented the influence of former Governor Nyesom Wike, making him the de facto ruler of Rivers State.

A FEDERAL TAKEOVER IN THE NAME OF STABILITY

For months, Rivers State has been embroiled in a bitter power struggle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and factions within the state legislature. The crisis escalated with the demolition of the House of Assembly building and the paralysis of governance. The Supreme Court even warned that a state cannot function without a properly constituted government, providing the perfect excuse for federal intervention.

President Tinubu, invoking Section 305 of the Constitution, suspended the executive and legislative arms of Rivers State and appointed Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (rtd.) as Sole Administrator. But this was no ordinary intervention. Ibas was not given the powers of a governor—he cannot enact laws, make executive decisions, or govern independently. Instead, he must refer all matters to the Federal Executive Council (FEC), where final decisions on Rivers State will now be made in Abuja.

THE MOST SYMBOLIC MOMENT: IBAS SWORN IN WITHOUT RIVERS REPRESENTATION

Perhaps the most telling moment of this entire process was the swearing-in of Ibas. Rather than taking place in Rivers State, as would be expected for a state administrator, the ceremony was held at the Presidents’s meeting room in Abuja.

Even more shockingly, the only Rivers indigene present was Nyesom Wike.

No other Rivers leader, elder, or stakeholder was invited. Not a single other Rivers man or woman witnessed the transition of power. The symbolism of this moment cannot be ignored. It was a clear message:
– Rivers State is no longer governed from Port Harcourt—it is now controlled from Abuja.
– ⁠The people of Rivers have lost their voice.
– ⁠And Wike is now the only person who speaks for them.

WIKE: THE DE FACTO GOVERNOR AND LEGISLATURE

With the governor and legislature suspended, decision-making for Rivers State now rests solely with the FEC. But in that council, only one person represents Rivers: Nyesom Wike.

This means:
– Every policy, budget, and governance decision concerning Rivers State will be discussed and approved in Abuja, where Wike is the sole voice speaking for the state.
– ⁠There is no elected governor to challenge him.
– ⁠There is no House of Assembly to provide checks and balances.
– ⁠There is no opposition within the state to counterbalance his influence.

Wike has now secured more power than he ever had as an elected governor. He does not need to campaign. He does not need to answer to the people of Rivers. He controls the state from Abuja with the full backing of the Presidency.

A CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED CAPTURE

Wike’s re-emergence as the de facto ruler of Rivers State did not happen by accident. Since leaving office in 2023, he has remained at the center of Rivers politics, ensuring that his grip on power never loosened. His rift with Governor Fubara was not about governance—it was about control.

Now, with emergency rule in place, Wike no longer needs to fight for control of Rivers from within. Instead, he has positioned himself as the single voice representing Rivers at the highest level of government.

A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT

This move sets a dangerous precedent for Nigerian democracy:
1. Can the federal government now take over any state experiencing political instability?
2. ⁠If Rivers can be governed remotely from Abuja, what stops the same from happening to other states?
3. ⁠Does this mean that states can be stripped of their autonomy whenever it is politically convenient?

By placing Rivers governance in the hands of one man at the FEC, this intervention is not about stability—it is about consolidating power.

A STATE WITHOUT A VOICE

For the people of Rivers, the implications are dire. Their state is now governed by decisions made in Abuja, not by their elected officials. Their resources, policies, and future development are now subject to the interests of a federal minister who no longer holds an official mandate in the state.

Wike is now the sole gatekeeper of Rivers affairs. He decides what is discussed. He decides what is approved. And with the full support of the Presidency, he has achieved something unprecedented: total control without an election.

THE FINAL QUESTION: WHO SPEAKS FOR RIVERS NOW?

With the governor, deputy governor, and lawmakers all sidelined, and Wike sitting comfortably as the only voice at the FEC, Rivers State is now in the hands of one man. The people must ask themselves:
– Is this the governance they voted for?
– ⁠Can Rivers truly claim to be a federating unit when it has no local decision-making power?
– ⁠Has Rivers State officially become an extension of Abuja’s political power play?

If the people of Rivers remain silent, they risk becoming mere spectators in the administration of their own state. The final capture of Rivers has been completed—not through elections, not through democracy, but through a carefully designed federal maneuver that has placed power in the hands of a single man.

And that man is Nyesom Wike.

Suddenly, the crisis in the Nigerian senate has been replaced in the headlines by the state of emergency declared in Rivers state by President Bola Tinubu and the resurgence of bombings in the creeks. Senator Godswill Akpabio is perhaps the happiest politician in the country today because of the respite he has just received. I understand that the “Queen of the Senate” was already planning to give interviews to CNN; Al Jazeera and other cable networks to further ridicule the senate president. She has also been invited to make presentations at a few women’s events in Lagos and Abuja in the months ahead.

But she’s had to shelve her media plans in view of the national mood and the shift in attention to Rivers. However, she is going ahead with her intentions to write to Western embassies in Abuja to report Senator Akpabio and advise them to register the senate president as “a serial sex offender”. She’s a relentless fighter and she knows what she wants, one of her advisers told me.

Meantime, continued explosions in the creeks of the Niger Delta will disrupt crude oil production and exports, and this would set the economy tail spinning into chaos. The Nigerian economy has been experiencing its severest fiscal crisis in a generation and further commotions could trigger a recession – a nightmare scenario that is better imagined than experienced.

Although his backers are quick to ascribe supernatural political powers to the president, he is clearly out of depth in his handling of the Rivers crisis. He has allowed a combination of bad politics, greed and the politics of 2027 to cloud his sense of judgement. Nyesom Wike was able to procure a bogus election result in favour of APC in the 2023 presidential election and that helped propel Tinubu into office, while Wike became his premier political ally. With another election coming in two years, there have been mounting revolts against the president from important political blocs in the north – a region that gave him the invaluable support he badly needed. The north claims that his draconian economic policies have worsened poverty in the region and his nepotism has denied the region the patronage it’s used to.

Desperate for a second term, the president has turned to the eight southern states where his party is not in power for succour – four in south-south; three in south-east and one in south-west. He wants to railroad them into supporting him. Akwa Ibom governor, Umo Eno, is under severe pressure to decamp to APC, while the governors of Bayelsa and Delta have been told to pledge their unalloyed support for Tinubu.

The suspension of Governor Sim Fubara and the Rivers house of assembly through the emergency rule last night is deemed illegal by various constitutional lawyers, scholars and commentators, but it is an option preferred by the president’s strategists as the easiest way to capture the state.

Dismantling the political structures in a state and imposing a military officer on the people is tantamount to a coup and Nigerians are expectedly aghast. Tinubu has imperiled this democracy and we have to stand up to him and resist this dictatorship.

David Augustine, a Nigerian journalist who is studying for a PhD in the UK, said: “Tinubu has been pretending to be a progressive politician; a patriot and fighter for the causes of democracy. He has been pretending to be intelligent and pragmatic. But the veil has been lifted. He has unravelled as a scheming, slimy dictator; an economic nitwit and a colossal, corrupt and nepotistic politician entirely fixated on feathering his political and economic nests at the expense of the people and the nation’s wellbeing. He is unwittingly throwing the country to the pre-Yar’adua era of pipeline sabotage and the attendant near-crippling economic stagnation – a situation deftly managed with diplomacy, responsibility, and clear-eyed sensitivity.

“It took the humility of President Yar’adua and his enormous personal integrity and trust capital to navigate the country through that era. Tinubu does not have the humility, the tact, the integrity, and the character to get the country out of a similar bind. Every step he takes now would be seen as the politics of 2027. Thus, the national consensus that helped to douse the tension just before the amnesty programme would be lacking.

“The president lacks the sensitivity to act with time. He is too steeped in politics to transform into a national leader and statesman. If care is not taken, his end would be catastrophic for the entire country. We pray we don’t get to that point. His misadventure in Rivers state must be keenly watched for its likely effect on the nation.”

When this crisis is finally over and the dust has settled (hopefully the roof won’t collapse on all of us), there will be enough admonitions for the key actors. For Nyesom Wike, your greed is your major undoing; for Tinubu, you cannot pretend for too long because you are neither Awolowo nor Ghandi and for Akpabio, ‘’the queen’’ is not yet done; choose your friends more carefully; set and respect boundaries for your enemies are closer than you think.

“The lizard who threw confusion into his mother’s funeral rite, did he expect outsiders to carry the burden of honouring his dead?” – Chinua Achebe, Arrow of God

Chinua Achebe used this proverb as a metaphor for the tragedy of his main character, Ezeulu, whose obstinate action led to his downfall. March 2025 is arguably President Tinubu’s best month since becoming President.

As many analysts and critics were trying to situate the spate of good news, the President, like the lizard, threw confusion into his lunch party.

Let’s look at the data. After years of turbulence, Nigeria was beginning to see signs of stability. The government has restored investor confidence, improved forex liquidity, and reduced inflationary pressures through difficult reforms. The green shoots of recovery were visible, even if the pain of reform was still fresh.

Key Indicators

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) on the Rise
* $3.48 billion flowed into Nigeria in six months, compared to $756.1 million before reforms.
* FPI increased by 7.13% in January, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

Naira Stabilising
* The exchange rate, which had collapsed to ₦2,000/$, has recovered to ₦1,508.59/$ due to better forex management.
* The $7 billion forex backlog has been cleared, reducing pressure on businesses and the banking sector.

Food Prices Beginning to Correct
* In major markets, rice, beans, and tomatoes fell by 15-20%.
* Market forces, not government intervention, were driving these corrections.

External Reserves Strengthening
* Nigeria’s reserves grew from $33.3 billion in September 2023 to $40.91 billion in January 2025, showing improved forex stability.
Oil Production Recovering
* Production reached 1.476 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, though still below budgeted targets of 2M (bpd)

This is the reality: Nigeria was beginning to turn a corner. The economy was far from perfect, but the trajectory was clear. The last thing the country needed was a political earthquake capable of undoing these fragile gains.

Sadly, the President took a wrong turn at his finest moment. Nigeria stands at the precipice of a self-inflicted crisis. The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State—suspending the Governor, dissolving the State House of Assembly, and installing a retired military officer as administrator—demands reflection. Is this a genuine response to an existential security threat, or is it a political manoeuvre that will impose unnecessary costs on the nation?

When a government invokes emergency powers, it signals the collapse of constitutional governance in that jurisdiction. It is the admission that existing institutions have failed and that democratic order is no longer sustainable. If so, then the nation must ask: What is the emergency? Is Rivers State in a state of lawlessness beyond the capacity of security agencies? Or is this a political calculation that sacrifices the country’s stability at the altar of expediency?

The Consequences of Political Instability

History has shown that political instability is the quickest way to derail economic recovery. Investors, local and foreign, do not operate in uncertainty. The declaration of an emergency in a significant economic hub like Rivers State would have far-reaching consequences:

Capital Flight and Investor Retreat
* The NGX already reported a 9.89% decline in transactions in January—a sign that investor sentiment is fragile.
* A political emergency could trigger another round of capital flight, reversing hard-won gains.

Exchange Rate Instability
* The naira’s recovery could be reversed if investors withdraw funds due to uncertainty.
* A renewed forex crisis would spike inflation and hurt businesses reliant on imports.

Oil Production Disruptions
* Rivers State is a key oil-producing state. A governance crisis could lead to uncertainty among operators.
* A 10% decline in oil production (from 1.476 million bpd to ~1.33 million bpd) would cost Nigeria billions in revenue.

Weakening of Federalism and Institutional Integrity
* If the National Assembly approves this emergency declaration, it sets a precedent that no state is safe.
* Political disputes, rather than genuine security threats, could be used to justify emergency rules in the future.

This is beyond Rivers State. It is about the future of governance in Nigeria.

This is not the first time Nigeria has faced a political crisis that tested the foundations of federalism. In 1962, the Federal Government declared a state of emergency in the Western Region, citing political unrest.

Chief Obafemi Awolowo, leader of the opposition, warned against using emergency powers for political purposes, stating:

“The Prime Minister thinks that this very far-reaching provision of the Constitution should be invoked merely to save a friend!”

What followed was political repression, legal battles, and deepening regional distrust. The Western Region crisis destabilised the First Republic, leading to a military coup, counter-coup, and eventually, the Nigerian Civil War.

The lesson from history Is clear: Political emergencies often escalate beyond their original intent. What begins as a calculated move to achieve short-term political advantage can lead to long-term national instability.

The Emergency We Need

Suppose Nigeria must declare a state of emergency. In that case, it should focus on real crises such as youth unemployment, insecurity, and the failing healthcare and education sectors, which threaten national stability.

Additionally, the rising cost of governance remains unsustainable, and urgent reforms are needed to ensure efficient resource management. Political disputes and power struggles should not precede these pressing national challenges.

Possible Ways Forward on the Rivers State Crisis

The Federal Government should continue mediating between the political actors in Rivers instead of using emergency powers.

Security agencies should be strengthened to maintain law and order, rather than replacing elected officials.

The Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) should be involved in a broader political solution.

A Call to NASS: Save the President from an Own Goal

The National Assembly has a constitutional duty to review and approve any emergency declaration. It is not a rubber stamp. It is an institution designed to check executive overreach.

The National Assembly should understand that the issue is beyond Rivers State; it is about protecting Nigeria’s democratic integrity and economic recovery. It is also about the sanctity of the votes of Rivers State people and the federal government's role in resolving subnational conflicts.

Rejecting this emergency is a sacred duty and an act of national preservation. If the Presidential action of suspending democratic institutions, an action unknown to our laws, stands, Nigeria will bear the economic and political costs for years to come.

A Moment for Leadership

President Tinubu had an opportunity to consolidate his economic recovery gains. Instead, he risked unravelling them with an avoidable political escalation.

Is this an overreach? Yes. The situation in Rivers does not warrant a state of emergency.

Is it an own goal? Absolutely. The economy was stabilising, and this action has introduced unnecessary uncertainty.

Is there a way back? Yes, but it requires leadership from the National Assembly and restraint from the Executive.

The lizard that throws confusion into its mother’s funeral must be ready to bear the consequences alone.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s proclamation of emergency rule in Rivers State on Tuesday surprised me for reasons different from those for which he has been severely criticised.

The mildest criticism is that Tinubu’s failure to call the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, to order was responsible for the crisis. The more severe criticisms range from accusations that the president has subverted constitutional rule to charges of potential destabilisation at the behest of Wike.

A common point of agreement is that a civilian president should never have to declare emergency rule. That is the ideal. But Rivers State before Tuesday presented a dire and complicated situation that stretched idealism to its elastic limits.

Chaos in slow motion

It’s convenient, especially for those who promoted and profited from the crisis, to pretend otherwise. Still, after the 27 state lawmakers loyal to Wike issued an impeachment notice, the outcome, if Governor Siminalayi Fubara had been impeached, might have been far worse for the state than can be contemplated under emergency rule. The proclamation was an unsolicited stitch in time.

If oil pipelines were already being blown up and militants deploying as the impeachment notice reached Fubara, what would have happened if the process had carried through? Rivers State has been chaos in slow motion for nearly two years, the only thriving business in the state being the politics of those who support Fubara and those who are against Wike.

The Supreme Court’s judgment invalidated the budget passed by Fubara and nullified the local government election. It affirmed the position of the 27 lawmakers, making Fubara’s government a lame duck. Emergency rule saved the governor from gunpoint, created a pause for the people to get their lives back, and made room for Wike and Fubara to stop and reflect. It’s a messy situation, but the counterfactual could have been worse.

Between Wike and Fubara

Popular media has framed Fubara as the victim of a grasping, unforgiving godfather, which suits his comportment. But during this inconvenient pause, it might be helpful for the governor to reflect on what he might have done differently, something that pressure by those egging him on for their narrow, selfish reasons might not have given him the space to do.

In the public imagination, control of the state’s “political structure” is at the heart of the dispute between Fubara and Wike. Whether that is so, whether it’s about who the “authentic” party leader is, or it is more than what the public knows, Fubara and Wike know. We can only guess. But they both know.

Open war

The open war started after Fubara’s swearing-in when the governor wanted to install his candidate as speaker in the House of Assembly but failed. What was the point of demolishing the State House of Assembly complex built for hundreds of millions of naira with taxpayers’ money in December 2023 simply on the suspicion that the lawmakers were planning to impeach him there? Why did the governor think it was right to convene four of 31 lawmakers in his office to present the appropriation bill and then go on to implement it?

And why, after the peace deal brokered in Abuja, was it difficult for him to be his own man, free himself as the hostage of opportunistic local politicians and self-appointed opinion leaders and implement the decisions reached instead of caving into busybodies in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) whose primary interest is to continue the unfinished war of the 2022 Convention by other means?

Atiku No 2.

The PDP leadership and their cousins in Labour have never forgiven Wike for supporting Tinubu’s election. They have been quite loud in condemning the state of emergency. That’s their job as opposition. However, if the PDP is letting its testosterone rush get into its head and impair memory, we may need to remind the party how we got here.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been quite vocal in condemning emergency rule in Rivers State. In his earnestness, he has forgotten that the government in which he was the Number Two man had a shambolic record of infidelity to constitutional rule. And that is saying it nicely.

One can argue that President Olusegun Obasanjo’s proclamation of emergency rule in Plateau State in 2004, though controversial, was inevitable because of the horrific deaths caused by the sectarian violence, which led to reprisals in other states. Yet, former Governor Joshua Dariye’s suspected links to the crisis made his suspension inevitable.

Bayelsa playbook

Atiku could not have forgotten that when his boss did it again in Ekiti State two years later, it was mainly to facilitate Obasanjo’s hijack of the state for his political convenience after lawmakers claimed to have impeached the governor. Fayose had become a thorn in his side, and he vowed to remove him by all means, fair and foul.

Atiku may argue that he had been estranged from the government then and could not bear vicarious liability. However, he remained a part of the government until the end and must endure its glory and shame.

Or perhaps he would have preferred the impeachment of Fubara from Obasanjo’s Bayelsa playbook? In that case, instead of an emergency rule, Tinubu would have provided a haven where the majority 27 lawmakers would have met under heavy security protection to remove the governor, as Obasanjo did under slightly different circumstances, in the case of former Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha.

Amaechi’s forgotten diary

Former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, a longstanding foe of Wike, also weighed in, condemning the “power grab’s illegality.” He has a right to intervene and speak his mind. However, since he called the proclamation “an affront” to the rule of law and a power grab, it might be helpful to remind him of a typical, but by no means isolated, example from his record as governor.

In 2013, when the position of chief judge in Rivers State was vacant, Amaechi appointed and swore in the President of the Customary Court of Appeal, Justice Peter Agumagu, against decency and the provisions of law. He joined issues with the National Judicial Commission (NJC), which was at its wit’s end to restrain him and keep him on the path of common sense. The state judiciary reeled under Amaechi’s blatant affront for one year, something he now conveniently forgets.

Apples and oranges

Parallels have been drawn between the state of emergency in Rivers State and the one in 1962 during the Western Region crisis, especially as the latter was believed to have led the country down the slippery slope that eventually ended in the removal of the Tafawa Balewa government and the Civil War.

The underlying currents may be similar – local politics gone rogue – but the consequences or potential consequences are not. Constitutional lawyers can debate the legal triggers because of the lack of clarity in Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution, compared with the 1960 Constitution, a pre-Republican document that gave the prime minister more expansive powers.

While the emergency rule in the Western Region was mainly an opportunistic intervention by the federal government to undermine the Obafemi Awolowo-led opposition, the emergency in Rivers State was an inevitable step to prevent a potential descent into chaos, where the governor was not an innocent bystander.

Water in the coconut

Since 1999, two administrations – Mohammadu Buhari’s and Umaru Yar’Adua’s being the only exceptions – have proclaimed emergency rule. Apart from 2013, when President Goodluck Jonathan left the governors of the three affected states in place because they had no link to the crises in their states, complicity has affected the scope of the application of emergency rule.

When Obasanjo threatened an emergency in Lagos, Tinubu said it was unacceptable because he was doing his best as governor to tackle the sectarian clashes in a small part of the state then. In Rivers, the governor is a part of the problem.

Those opposed to the proclamation should say how to leave Fubara in place and extract the water of peace from the coconut of Rivers State without breaking the shell on the head of the people.

The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (MBLF) considers and utterly condemns the declaration of a State of Emergency in Rivers State, including the dissolution of the State House of Assembly and particularly the removal from office of the Governor of the state Similayi Fubara and his Deputy by Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The SMBLF observed that the grounds contained in the Notice of Impeachment of the Governor and his Deputy published by the Rivers State House of Assembly a day before are to all intents and purposes deliberate rehearsals of the reasons given by the President for his unconstitutional take over of the Government of Rivers State.

That notwithstanding pretences to the contrary and pandering to judicial pronouncements in denial the world is not deceived that the House of Assembly which published the Notice of Impeachment is constituted by 27 members who have defected and become members of the President’s political party and that the declaration of the State of Emergency is only a perfection of the impeachment conspiracy.

That by its service of Notice of Impeachment and adjournment of the House of Assembly sine die thereby frustrating the implementation of the judgment of the Supreme Court in the running of the affairs of the state, members of the House of Assembly of the same Political Party with the President are responsible for the present situation of “the good people of the state not being able to have access to the dividends of democracy” as alleged by the President.

That it is most unfortunate that President Tinubu would unconstitutionally terminate a democratically elected administration on the flimsy ground that “some militants had threatened fire and brimstone against their perceived enemy of the governor who has up till now NOT disowned them” without investigation of the alleged culpability of the Governor.

That in a federation in which the President is vested with absolute powers over security and the federating states denied of any role therein, it is most unfair that the President would hold Governor Fubara responsible for the failure of proactive security intelligence under his command which obviously led to what he described as “disturbing incidents of vandalization of pipelines by some militants without the governor taking any action to curtail them”.

That there is no provision in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria including section 305 (5) under whichPresident Tinubu claimed to have derived his authority which allows the Federal Government to take-over the government of any of the federating states.

The only situation wherein governance of a state may be interfered with is provided in section 11 (4) to which section 305 is subject that “at any time when any House of Assembly of a State is unable to perform its functions by reason of the situation prevailing in that State the National Assembly may exercise powers to make such laws for the peace and good government of a state with respect to matters on which a House of Assembly may make laws as may appear to the National Assembly to be necessary or expedient until l such time as the House of Assembly is able to resume its functions; and any such laws enacted by the National Assembly pursuant to this section shall have effect as if they were laws enacted by the House of Assembly of the State: Provided that nothing in this section shall be construed as conferring on the National Assembly power to remove the Governor or the Deputy Governor of the State from office”.

That there is no doubt that the members of the Rivers State House of Assembly whose fate, in the wake of their defection to the President’s party, is still subject of litigation, are presently, in cahoots with the Minister of the FCT, responsible for the inability of the State Assembly to perform its functions for which reason the National Assembly may feel justifiably called upon to make laws for the state in the interim.

That the decision by the President to sack the democratically elected Government and appoint a military Administrator to take charge of the affairs of the state by regulations subject to the consideration and approval by the Federal Executive Council is an undisguised and provocative handing over of Rivers State to its immediate past Governor and Minister of the FCT whose appetite for continuing ruling of the state by proxy is sought to be thereby quenched.

The SMBLF recalled that during the hey days of insurgency in the North East, President Goodluck Jonathan in conjunction with the National Assembly declared a state of emergency in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states in 2013 without hurting the democratic structures of which the present Vice President who was then Governor of Borno State, in spite of his open hostility to the President, was a beneficiary.

That the National Assembly in the exercise of its powers under the Constitution particularly Sections 305 thereof is hereby called upon to countermand the despotic and ominous order of the President sacking a democratically elected administration in preference of a military Administrator in a proclamation reminiscent of our unenviable not too distant past.

The Youths of River State, and indeed that of the Niger Delta, should restrain from using violent reactions to this unfortunate development, as in the end its the citizenry that will pay the price of any economic sabotage.
That the citizens of Nigeria should stoutly discourage the growing culture of intolerance under the present administration tending Nigeria to a one-party state.

Issued at Abuja this 19th day of March 2025

Signed by:

HRH Oba Oladipo Olaitan, Afenifere Leader

Dr Bitrus Pogu, Middle Belt Leaders Forum National President

Senator John Azuta Mbata, Ohanaeze Ndigbo President General

Ambassador Godknows Igali, PANDEF National Chairman.