*Analysts predict tough call 

*CPPE: N9tn increase in money supply pressuring FX market

*Calls on apex bank to develop intervention measures

As the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) holds its first meeting since President Bola Tinubu assumed office, issues in the foreign exchange market, particularly the recent floating of the naira, high benchmark interest rate, removal of petrol subsidy, and rising inflation are expected to shape discussions.

The two-day meeting would commence today, the first since the suspension of Godwin Emefiele as the CBN Governor.
Analysts told THISDAY yesterday that the meeting – the first to be presided over by the acting CBN Governor, Mr. Folashodun Shonubi, would be a difficult call amid rising prices of goods and commodities, high cost of funds in the economy, floating of the foreign exchange which has continued to encounter supply challenges and weakening against the US dollar as well as the hardship brought about by the stoppage of the fuel subsidy regime.

With FX parallel market rate at N865 to the US Dollar as of yesterday and inflation currently at 22.79 per cent as well as the Monetary Policy Rate which stood at 18.5 per cent, some analysts are already divided on what the outcome of the meeting would be -whether to further tighten, ease or retain policy rate.
They argued the MPC would be in a dilemma given that Tinubu, who had appointed Shonubi to replace Emefiele, favours monetary easing which might not be palatable amid current economic headwinds.

The analysts, in separate interviews with THISDAY on the possible outcomes of the MPC expressed different expectations.
President Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, said the decision of the MPC would be influenced by the rising inflation expectations due largely to the sudden removal of fuel subsidy, the pressure on the naira and exchange rate volatility occasioned by the recent naira float.

He said the considerations tend to recommend a further rates hike aimed at taming the stubborn inflation, adding that Shonubi, who would be chairing the meeting has been part and parcel of the hawkish MPC stance for months now and so another rates hike will not come as a surprise.
Uwaleke said, “Be that as it may, the MPC should equally recognise that the removal of fuel subsidy has slowed down economic activities considerably with attendant drop in productivity.

“So, economic growth and jobs are already negatively impacted such that a further monetary policy tightening would only worsen the situation through the credit channel as cost of capital is increased and access to credit by small businesses is made more difficult.”
He said a further increase in the MPR was likely to endanger the asset quality of banks through an increase in non-performing loans as deposit money banks reprice their loans.

Uwaleke added, “In this regard, the balance of risks dictates that the MPC should pause the policy rate hikes, which has been on since May last year by maintaining a hold position on all policy parameters during the meeting.
“The MPC should recognise that much as its primary mandate is to maintain price stability, it equally has a responsibility to support output growth. This is against the backdrop of the fact that many of the factors driving inflation in Nigeria, such as insecurity affecting food output and high energy costs are outside the control of the CBN.

“All said, the MPC should seize the opportunity of the meeting to signal readiness to support output growth through policies geared towards fostering a low-interest rates environment while keeping an eye on inflation using a mix of heterodox measures.”
In his contribution, Wealth Management and Business Development Consultant, Mr. Ibrahim Shelleng, said, “Honestly, it’s tough to call. Whilst the president’s policy is to crash interest rates, I am not sure whether this will translate at the MPC just yet. Especially given that the current CBN governor is still in an acting capacity

“Also, with inflationary pressures from rising energy costs, crashing rates may lead to greater demand-pull inflation pressures.”
On his part, Managing Director/Chief Executive, Dignity Finance and Investment Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, said he expected the MPC to retain the interest rate at current levels.  
He said, “We expect that CBN should not continue to increase MPR just to check inflation. This is because there are many other factors that are responsible for an increase in inflation.

“If the MPR is increased indiscriminately, it will have a positive correlation with an increase in interest rates. When interest rate is increased, money in circulation will be distorted, and the economy falls short of stimulation. I, therefore, expect that MPR will remain unchanged.”
Also, Managing Director/Chief Executive, SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, predicted that the CBN would either hold or reduce MPR.
He said, “The MPC meeting may likely hold interest rates or reduce rates due to the policy direction of the new government to boost economic activities in the country.

“The previous meetings have always increased the rate to the detriment of the economy and it has caused a continuous rise in inflation.”
Meanwhile, an economist and Founder of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf has stated that the curious growth in broad money supply in June, led to pressure on the naira in the foreign exchange market.

Yusuf also called on the CBN to come up with intervention measures that would moderate the volatility in the country’s FX market.
He made the call yesterday in a statement titled “The Naira Exchange Rate Conundrum,” in which he stated that the curious surge in monetary expansion in June by 15 per cent might have contributed to the source of pressure on the Naira in the FX market.  

He said: “The volatility in the FX market is naturally unsettling.  But it is not unexpected given the long period of distortions in the foreign exchange market.  Correcting the entrenched distortions would take some time.
“But in the meantime, the monetary authorities should come up with a sustainable intervention framework to ensure the moderation of current volatility in the FX market.

“We recognise the FX supply limitations, but the system needs to be managed in way that would not undermine investors’ confidence. Erosion of confidence triggers speculation and influences expectations, which in turn trigger diverse responses among economic players.”
He also attributed the pressure in the country’s FX market to “a curious surge in monetary expansion in the last one month.  Money supply grew by an unprecedented 15 per cent in one month between May and June 2023.”

The economist said broad money grew by over N9 trillion, from N55.7 trillion to N64.9 trillion. “This surge in monetary growth is unprecedented. Obviously, this must have had an effect on the exchange rate.
“The monetary authorities should investigate this drastic growth in money supply and take steps to curb subsequent expansion.  Such dramatic growth in money supply poses a significant risk to macroeconomic stability, especially price stability,” he said.

Yusuf recalled that over the last few years there had been a cumulative backlog of unmet foreign exchange demand, running into billions of dollars as a result of acute illiquidity in the foreign exchange market.
He argued that with a more liberalised FX market, the pressure of the backlog of unmet demands and other maturing FX related obligations have been unleashed on the investors and exporters window.

According to him, “transiting from a repressive market environment to a more liberalised market could be a source of market instability.  However, there is need for vigilance to prevent questionable capital outflows or speculative assault on the currency.
“A free market is not synonymous with complete absence of regulation. Free enterprise has to be complemented with an appropriate regulatory framework to curb illicit financial flows.”

Yusuf also pointed out that the frequency and scope of CBN’s intervention in the FX market had decelerated compared to first five months of the year as shown by recent reports from the CBN.
The reports indicated “a total of $17 billion intervention by the CBN in the FX market in 2022.  This is an average of N1.4 billion per month. Since the inception of the present administration, it is doubtful whether we had seen an intervention of up to $1 billion in total.

“It expected that as the scale of intervention improves, the volatile will be subdued,” he said.  
The CPPE also believed “that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is on the right path and that the current volatility in the foreign exchange market are challenges typically inherent in a major policy transition.  In a couple of months, we expect the instability to subside.”

[ThisDay]

Electricity distribution companies(DisCos) in Lagos say the proposed Standard Transfer Specification (STS),  a metering code, to be introduced soon, is not targeted toward increasing electricity tarrif.

A top official in one of the Discos in Lagos, who preferred anonymity, told the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Sunday that the code, a software which is of an international standard, is to upgrade old meters to STS rollover.

NAN reports that DisCos in Nigeria have already advised its customers to upgrade their meters before Aug. 1 in order not to lose them.

The STS rollover is a secure message system for carrying information between a point of sale (PoS) and a meter.

The official said that the timeline for the upgrade would end in November 2024 and that customers’ meters had to be upgraded to allowed for accessibility.

According to him, every DisCo has scheduled it metering coding, differently.

“Some have scheduled for Aug. 1, but ours is not same date, However,  it will be done before the expiring date of November 2024.

“We will ensure the migration is seamless for our customers on STS TID rollover system.

“The software will be upgraded without affecting reading or payment model.

“In electricity process, there are intelligent units that transfer the load to an alternative source.

“The technology of the remote communication makes possible the function and recharge of prepaid meter,” the staff added.

The source said that the TID – Token Identifier is a 24 bit field contained in STS compliant token that identifies the date and time of the token generation.

He said that it is used to determine if a token had already been used in a payment meter.

The source said that the upper limit for the software would be reached by November 2024, noting that would lead the rollover to zero.

He also said this would be needed for the TID rollover for meter upgrade to enable meter recharge.

The source said that customers need to upgrade their meters by using a Key Change Token (KCT), a special rest token, to be loaded on their meters.

“Customers will get a KCT of the DisCos offices or their agents at the point of purchase of a token alongside the purchased energy tokens.

“Customers will only need to use KCT once and subsequent energy purchases will be as usual,” the official added.

He said no customers’ meters needed to be changed to enable the upgrade, except it is an obsolete or faulty meter.

[championnews]

FOLLOWING the increase in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, known as petrol, from N488 to between N568 and N617 per litre, civil servants in Lagos State have resorted to shift operations to cushion the effect of the increment.

Consequently, most private vehicle owners in Lagos have decided to board public transportation to their offices and various destinations.

The development has reduced the chaotic gridlock in Lagos State, as most of the highways are witnessing free flow of traffic across the state.

Most of the areas visited include Egbeda, Iyana-Ipaja, Dopemu, Ikeja, Oshodi axes, Ikotun, Isolo axis, Agege, Yaba, Ikorodu Road, CMS, Ikoyi, among others.

Residents resort to trekking

Also, many residents have been left with no choice but to resort to trekking as means of transportation due to hike in fares, with many unable to afford the exorbitant fares.

The metropolis, which is gradually becoming a ghost town, has continued to witness commuters trekking to their various destinations daily.

The inability to cope with the rising transport fares has forced people from different walks of life to embark on the long walks despite scorching sun.

Commercial buses and taxis have recorded considerable drop in patronage by passengers as more commuters have taken to alternative commercial transportation like Bus Rapid Transit, BRT, and trekking, particularly, short distance journey.

Civil servants in the state are not left out in the hardship as most of them have embarked on shift operation to reduce the financial impact.

As residents of Lagos continue to adapt to the new reality of trekking long distances, many are yearning for a relief package in the much expected “palliative” as promised by the Federal Government to address, cushion the fuel price crisis and restore affordable transportation options for all citizens.

Workers, residents lament

Some of the workers and residents, who spoke to Vanguard in confidence, narrated how they have been coping with economic situation in the country.

Commercial bus drivers have hiked the transport fares as high as 300 per cent. A journey that earlier cost N200, is now N600, while a journey of N100 is between N250 and N300 across Lagos metropolis.

A journey from Ikotun to CMS, which used to be N1000, has gone up as high as N3,000.

A worker, simply identified as Idowu, who resides in Alimosho area of the state, lamented how he has dropped his car at home and dumped commercial buses to join the Lagos State staff bus to avoid the high cost of fuel on his meagre salary.

Idowu said: “The hike in petrol has forced me to drop my car at home, I now join the staff bus home and to the office because I cannot afford the daily cost of fuel.”  

Also Mrs Adeola, who lives in Ifako-Ijaiye area, told Vanguard that most of the ministries have adopted a one day on and one day off for workers to limit the number of days at work due to the situation in the country.

Adeola said: “Since the fuel subsidy and the latest fuel hike, we have resorted to a kind of shift service of one day on, one day off among staff. That is what most of the staff are doing now. This is to relieve staff of financial stress occasion by the fuel hike.”

Shift basis

Meanwhile, a check by our correspondent revealed that most workers operate on shift basis presently as few workers were seen in most of the offices visited.

A senior official, who spoke under anonymity, said: “Anyway, everyone is still regular at their respective offices. It is just that many were thankful for the provision of staff buses that convey them to and fro. That’s the only support at this tough time for now.”

A resident, Ayo Elemide insisted that the new subsidy regime, which enjoyed the endorsement of the APC-led administration, was worsening an already dire economic situation.

According to Elemide, “The increase is worsening the already suffocating economic situation on Nigerians and could crumble the country if not quickly addressed.”

[Vanguard]

Vice President, Sen. Kashim Shettima will on Sunday depart Abuja to represent President Bola Tinubu at two major international Summits in Rome, Italy and St Petersburg, Russia.

Mr Olusola Abiola, Director, Information,
Office of the Vice President, made this known in a statement in Abuja on Sunday.

Abiola stated that at the Rome event, Shettima would join other global leaders for the first Stocktaking Moment (STM) Summit themed “Transforming Food Systems for People, Planet and Prosperity,” holding from Monday, July 24 to Wednesday, July 26.

According to him, during the summit, Shettima would chair a high-level session themed “Innovative Financing for Food System Transformation: the Case of Nigeria”

He added that the side event titled ”Scaling up Multi Stakeholders Collaboration and Investment in the Implementation of Food Systems Transformation Pathways in Nigeria,”

Abiola also said that the event is being organised in collaboration with the Rome-based UN Agencies, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UN (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and World Food Programme (WFP), as well as the UN Food Systems Coordination Hub and wider UN system.

“Shettima will then proceed from Rome to St. Petersburg in Russia to represent the President at the Russia-Africa Summit scheduled from Wednesday, July 26 to Saturday, July 29.

” While in Russia, the Vice President will join other political and business leaders at the 2nd Russia–Africa Summit and Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum focused on strategising to enhance relations between Russia and the African continent, among other benefits.

[Guardian]

There is no law that can railroad humanity into one narrow conceptual cubicle. What is meat to Europeans may be poison to the African. We all acknowledge that the world is changing but we also know that some so-called changes negate our essence and culture. In Africa, we do not condemn foreign values. We understand that there are many ways to skin bushmeat. What we can’t comprehend is that the understanding we extend to others is denied us because they think that their ways of life are superior to ours.

In recent years, there have been concerted efforts to force African nations to liberalise their laws to favour the US-led Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual or Transgender, Queer (LGBTQ) movement. Africans consider it strange that the same people who did their damndest to depopulate the continent via slavery, colonialism, wars and all sorts of unjust stratagems — that these same people are now hawking new wares: LGBTQ rights.

The problem with those marketing homosexuality and other deviant behaviours is that they do not recognise traditional boundaries and age-long cultural values. Indeed, they consider anyone who holds a different view as primitive or uncivilised.

When President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda signed the country’s anti-LGBTQ bill into law the other day, you would think he had detonated a nuclear bomb. The western world was up in arms. Why criminalise homosexuality? Why prescribe the death sentence for offenders? As personal preferences go, I have my own reservations about the death penalty, but that is where I part company with those condemning Museveni and the Ugandan parliament.

The law imposes the death penalty or life imprisonment for certain same-sex acts; up to 20 years in prison for “recruitment, promotion and funding” of same-sex “activities”, and anyone convicted of “attempted aggravated homosexuality” faces a 14-year imprisonment The UN high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, describes it as “shocking and discriminatory”.

The UK government said it was appalled by the “deeply discriminatory” bill, which it said will “damage Uganda’s international reputation”. President Joe Biden of the US decried the Act as “shameful” and a “tragic violation of universal human rights”. He threatened to impose sanctions and visa restrictions on Ugandan officials.

Uganda’s speaker, Anita Annet, urged the courts to begin enforcing the law immediately. “We have stood strong to defend our culture and [the] aspirations of our people,” she said, thanking Museveni for his “steadfast action in the interest of Uganda”. She noted that the parliamentarians had withstood pressure from “bullies and doomsday conspiracy theorists”.

The UN also voiced its objection: “We are appalled that the draconian and discriminatory anti-gay bill is now law. It is a recipe for systematic violations of the rights of LGBT people and the wider population. It conflicts with the constitution and international treaties and requires urgent judicial review.”

The Africa deputy director for Human Rights Watch, Ashwanee Budoo-Scholtz, weighed in: “Museveni’s signing of the anti-homosexuality bill is a serious blow to the right to freedom of expression and association in Uganda, where instead of being restricted they ought to be strengthened. The law is discriminatory and is a step in the wrong direction for the protection of human rights for all people in the region.”

It is always dangerous to rely on one single perspective in trying to understand socio-cultural issues. Unfortunately, those who take it upon themselves to lecture Africans about everything even though their crimes on the continent cry to high heavens, will never have the kind of influence they crave on the continent because they refuse to respect or even grudgingly acknowledge the African perspective.

In Africa, as in most parts of the world, marriage is between a man and a woman. The electrical charge of conjugal bliss is powered by both positive and negative terminals. Society, like the natural law of physics, does not accept positive and positive, or negative and negative. In this respect, Africans are in agreement with Christians and Muslims who insist that in the Garden of Eden, God created Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve.

I wrote about this subject 12 years ago in the Daily Trust when the Nigerian Senate passed a bill outlawing same-sex marriage as well as banning public displays of affection between homosexual couples. The bill prescribed a 14-year jail term for anyone involved in same-sex marriages. Those who abet or aid such unions could be put away for 10 years, as would “any person who registers, operates or participates in gay clubs… or directly or indirectly makes public show of same sex amorous relationships.”

At that time, homosexual groups in the US besieged the Nigerian Embassy to protest the bill.  Several other pressure groups mounted street campaigns and social media interventions. US President Barack Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum directing “all federal agencies engaged abroad to ensure that US diplomacy and foreign assistance promote and protect the human rights of LGBT persons.” Obama also directed government officials to “protect vulnerable LGBT refugees and asylum seekers.”

I laughed in vernacular at the time because Obama’s charge to US officials to protect vulnerable LGBTQ refugees had not gone unnoticed by our 419 kingpins. I predicted that thenceforth, every lay-about seeking greener pastures in America would claim to be fleeing gay persecution in Nigeria.

Marriage is a sacred institution in Africa. It is through the union of a man and a woman that children are brought into the world. Anything that attempts to sabotage this natural order is considered unacceptable. There are so many existential problems from Cairo to Cape Coast that a debate on same sex relationships is considered a luxury. Many Africans cannot even comprehend why an antithesis of the natural order is being flaunted as a fad.

Gay rights activists have done a yeoman’s job in carrying their campaigns around the world. I do not condemn them. Rather I am inspired by  Pope Francis’ admonition in which he asks the world “to pray fervently for this intention so that Christ can take even what might seem to us impure, scandalous or threatening, and turn it … into a miracle” because “Families today need miracles!”

The  2010 judgment of the court of human rights in Strasbourg has recently been given new life on social media in response to the renewed gay rights debates worldwide. The court had ruled that, “There is no right to same-sex marriage”. Its decision was predicated on a myriad of philosophical and anthropological considerations based on the natural order, common sense, scientific reports and, of course, positive law. The Court decided that the notion of family contemplates not only “the traditional concept of marriage, that is, the union of a man and a woman”, but also that they should not impose on governments an “obligation to open marriage to persons of the same sex”.

The Quran contains several allusions to homosexual activity, which has prompted considerable exegetical and legal commentaries over the centuries. The subject is most clearly addressed in the story of Sodom and Gomorrah “after the men of the city demand to have sex with the (seemingly male) messengers sent by God to the prophet Lot (or Lut)”. The Quranic narrative largely conforms to that found in Genesis.

So, whichever route you take on this matter — traditional, Christian or Islamic, there is no place for the justification of homosexuality in Africa. Having said that, it is also part of our culture to respect the differences of other people. That is why Africans are not quick to condemn the Euro-American gay campaign. But if Africans are that accommodating, why does the West threaten fire and brimstone and withdrawal of economic aid whenever Africans assert their rights to stay true to their culture?

Some conspiracy theorists have suggested that the gay lobby in Africa is meant to depopulate the continent. Former President Robert Mugabe probably felt that way when he threatened that any gay couple caught would be locked up in prison until one of them became pregnant. Many Africans agree with Mugabe — and they wonder why gay couples are allowed to adopt children and spread their ‘virus’ to the younger generation.

In Africa, there is no confusion about gender. Men are proud to be men and women celebrate their femininity. That accounted for the outrage that greeted the recent Gender Switch celebration in Delta State University where boys turned out in girl’s outfits and vice versa. That is how confusion starts!

Expecting African countries to equate LGBTQ rights with human rights is a tall order. There is no self-respecting family in Africa who would invite kinsmen and neighbours to celebrate the wedding of their son to another man. This is not being judgemental; just plain honesty about who we are.

I wish the new authorities in Abuja would listen to the many voices of reason and wisdom, which continue to pour in at this time that photo opportunities should be frozen immediately. The new strong man in Africa needs to freeze the meretricious visitations and photo sessions so that he can observe the implications of the flame of fire from the midst of the bush called Nigeria at this moment. The bush is already burning with fire even as the bush isn’t consumed yet.

In other words, the oracles are already out warning our leaders about the fire of inflation rate that is already burning enthusiasm that came with having a New Sheriff In Town. Now is a time to reflect on the likely consequences of rising cost of transport, which Frantz Fanon’s“wretched of the earth” still can’t understand. It is a time for the new men in power to step aside and look closely at the burning bush of rise and rise of cost of living the morning after the removal of the devourers called fuel subsidy. It is indeed a time to organise a think tank on the status of our local currency against the dollars. I hope the duty bearers in our national capitalwould step out of the Aso Villa’s presidential cocoon and ask for real reports of risk analysis on the daily announcements of rising school fees at all levels of public schools even when the framework for the bait called student loans has not been clearly set up. I hope the risk analysts in the powerhouses in Abuja and 36 state capitals would consider the implications of a report at the weekend that, “Residents desert roads in states”. In other words, I wish the intelligence agencies would study the reasons the endemic traffic on even Lagos roads and routes are disappearing fast. Is it organic and healthy that even bus drivers and other ad-hoc transporters are fast running away from even intra-state transportation business?

And so as the bush is still burning but not yet consumed, it is relevant to draw attention of the authorities at all levels to engage in some introspection on their personal comfort, personal emoluments within the context of public service and sacrifice. Our leaders should not get it twisted: this isn’t a time for careless public policies and mediocre calls on people to understand the times without concomitant attention to calls too on the leaders to look at their lifestyles.

Lifestyles of our leaders have hitherto ruined our future. For their lifestyles today, they have ruined our tomorrow. What is worse, our leaders haven’t been paying attention to the ever-rising cost of governance, no thanks to their recklessness. They give directives to civil service leaders for reckless employment of even unqualified cronies and emergency friends. They don’t study the colour of expenditure framework before implementing their numerous consultants’ projects. The public service nationwide is full of people they can’t even pay. The revenue agencies and institutions of governance even have special remuneration packages different from the mainstream public service. But now even the Head of the Civil service of the Federation or indeed the presidential bureaucracy can’t answer any questions offhand on the number of public officers we have even with Integrated Personnel and Pay System (IPPSS) and other digital tools for payments in the federation.

Expectedly, those who should know have been telling the president that he should not be too distracted to deal with soaring cost of governance. It is however beginning to appear before the people who dwell in the poverty capital of the world that our representatives in the National Assembly do not understand the essence of calls being made to deal with cost of governance. They aren’t ready to listen to the need to deal with their national greed. They are ever ready to increase the cost of governance. Sadly, the power of the national purse, the power to control the treasury and public accounts generally rest with them.

At the inauguration lecture the other day, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, charged the then President-elect Bola Tinubu, to cut down the cost of governance.

Adesina noted that the bloated size of government would normally come with high cost of public sector expenditure and its negative impact on the development process in the country. Speaking on the topic, “Strengthening Nigeria’s Economy”, he said, “The cost of governance in Nigeria is way too high and should be drastically reduced to free up more resources for development. Nigeria is spending very little on development.Today, Nigeria is ranked among countries with the lowest human development index in the world, with a rank of 167 among 174 countries globally, according to the World Bank 2022 Public Expenditure Review report.”He asked Tinubu to rise to the challenge of governance on his first day in office, as the country needs leadership that will reassure it with hope of security, peace and stability. On this same subject, The Guardian, Nigeria did a symposium and contextual report titled, 

Soaring cost of governance: All eyes on Tinubu(July 2, 2023).
According to the report, President Tinubu who was yet to manifest the colour of his cabinet at the weekend was reminded of the need to cut the cost of governance in line with economic realities of the moment. According to the article, dwindling revenue on various fronts, fiscal measures being introduced in the economy, mounting debts, and debt-servicing obligations are already putting strains on the nation’s finances, while government hopes to run the country on shoestring budgets that cannot engender true development.

A corollary to the point at issue is that development economists, public sector experts, are daily stressing that bogus civil service costs Nigeria around 30 per cent of its annual budget. They argue that the Federal Government could reap an estimated N12 trillion annually from the realignment of its national workforce.

Last year, out of the country’s ₦16.3 trillion budget, ₦6.8 trillion was spent on the payment of salaries and other personnel overheads. This year, the figure is higher as N8.5 trillion of the N21.82 trillion budgeted would be spent paying salaries and allowances of public officers and other ancillary costs.

Indeed, it is estimated from available data that Nigeria can save as much as N12 trillion annually from the merger of government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) that have overlapping functions. This is if it implements the recommendations of the Stephen Oronsaye report (2011/2013 on the reduction of the cost of governance. Africa’s most populous country is currently neck deep in debt with the nation’s total debt stock now estimated at N49.85 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO).

Still, the rising cost of governance is taking a huge portion of the yearly budget, leaving behind peanuts for development projects. During Buhari’s eight years in office, for instance, only 19.7 per cent of the total budgetary spending, or N14.5 trillion went into capital expenditure (CAPEX), much of which would end up in office equipment and sundry items. The total CAPEX outlay was less than half of the over N30 trillion deficits accumulated by the administration, according to fact file from official quarters. Can we continue like this?

Sadly, within eight years, N59.2 trillion was frittered on overheads, personnel costs, and other items of recurrent expenditure and debt servicing. The African Development Bank (AfDB) had raised the alarm that the rising cost of debt service, which the World Bank said could surpass 100 per cent of retained revenues, would crowd out investment in infrastructure needed to develop Africa.

The Guardian also quoted from the DMO’s file, which also informed us that between October and December 2022, Nigeria spent N406.77 billion on domestic debt servicing, while it spent $312.27 million (N143.74 billion) on external debt servicing, giving a total of N550.51 billion. Between January and March 2023, Nigeria spent N874.13 billion on domestic debt servicing, while it spent $801.36 million (N368.87 billion) on external debt servicing, giving a total of N1.24 trillion.

A detailed analysis of Nigeria’s 2023 budget shows that a total of N18.04 trillion is allocated to all government MDAs. With a total of 541 MDAs, each MDA is estimated to receive about N33.27 billion.

Going by the Oronsaye recommendation that the MDAs be pruned down to 161, Nigeria will only need a little above N5 trillion to spend on all the MDAs put together, saving the nation over N12 trillion. Meanwhile, the ostentatious lifestyle and fiscal indiscipline of elected government officials present even more cause for concern.

In the 2023 budget, Nigeria is to spend N14.2 billion on the Presidency alone while the National Assembly has a budget of N228.1 billion. Former President Buhari between 2016 and October last year, spent about N81.80 billion on the Presidential Air Fleet (PAF) maintenance and foreign trips.

The colossal figures include N62.47 billion for the operation and maintenance of PAF, N17.29 billion for foreign and local trips, and N2.04 billion earmarked for related expenses. The Presidency has maintained 10 aircraft since the inception of the Buhari regime in May 2015.

Under Buhari’s administration, the government created more agencies, including the Nigerian Diaspora Commission (NDC), North East Development Commission (NEDC) as well as the Nigeria Data Protection Bureau (NDPB), amongst many others.In 2020, the federal government had to borrow the sum of N2.8 trillion from the central bank via the Ways and Means provisions.Debt servicing gulped N3.2 trillion in the same year, while Nigeria spent a total of N5.6 trillion on recurrent non-debt expenditure in 2021.The money was spent on Personal cost for MDA’s rising from N2.8 billion, in the 2020 budget to N3 billion in 2021 budget. Personal cost for government-owned enterprises (GOEs) also more than tripled from N218 billion (2020) to N701 billion, in 2021.

What is worse, as Nigerians are raising concerns over the over-bloated government spending, the institution, that ought to help check government spending, the National Assembly, has consistently increased its annual budget as can be seen from the increase from N134 billion in 2022 budget to N169 billion, under the 2023 budget. They also just earmarked N70 Billion in an amendment to the N819.5 billion 2022 supplementary budget as support for the “working condition” of new lawmakers. This has been the attitude of the representatives of the people: they hardly understand the perilous times!

So, as the Tinubu government desperately seeks ways to cut governance costs due to low revenue from oil sales, stakeholders believe that this is the right time for our political leaders to show exemplary leadership and bemoderate in their lifestyle. They need to stop long and noisy convoys. They should sell some of their mansions that we know. They should stop reckless lifestyle even in their villages. They should not ask us to understand the painful times while they and their families show that moderation is only for the poor. They should stop sending their children to schools abroad. They should also stop using our money to buy houses abroad, lest the people’s revolt will be inevitable sooner than later.

The Concerned Northern Forum has decried the continued detention of Sarkin Hausawan, Lagos, Alhaji Aminu Yaro, over his alleged connection to former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Governor, Godwin Emefiele, by the Department of State Services, DSS.

The forum described the detention as a violation of human rights and disrespect for the rule of law.

In a statement signed by the Chairman of the forum, Mohammed Danlami, on Sunday, the group said, “We don’t see any legal reason for the DSS to continue to hold such a respected figure in detention, a community leader and renowned businessman along with his wife. This is barbaric; we detest and stand against it; it is not done anywhere in the world, it is not democratic, only under military dictatorship will such a thing happen.”

He said an accused person is presumed innocent until proven guilty by a competent court of law, lamenting that the DSS was yet to arraign him.

Danlami said the group could not ignore the perceived injustice being meted out to Yaro and his wife, urging President Bola Tinubu to call the DSS to order.

It also called on Nigerians to come out en masse for a peaceful protest against the leadership of the DSS over disrespect for the rule of law and acting without professionalism.

[DailyPost]

I received the material you are about to read from a beloved first cousin of mine, Architect Akintunde (Tunde) Imolehin way before the inauguration of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as president, Titled “ASIWAJU: 10 Things before May 29”, I cannot actually say why I did not print it before Tinubu’s inauguration since the “10 things” listed therein were meant as a guide or advice to the president. But some writings are best enjoyed posteriori than a priori. I enjoy reading old news reports and analyses and then amuse myself with how far away from the point many of them turn out to be! Try it and amuse yourself! You will discover, just a few days after, how terribly many who pontificate and comment like oracles overshoot the tarmac! You will then see that it is not only the prophets that goof, writers, too, do! The good side, however, as you will soon see with Akintunde’s piece, is how leaders still make avoidable mistakes despite the avalanche of good advice made available to them for free. Why this is always so should interest researchers in our institutions of higher learning. Let’s listen to Akintunde:

“Expectations are very high, Asiwaju. Many want you to succeed while not a few wish otherwise. The choice is yours. It is also our mandate. You have what it takes to be the best president Nigeria has ever produced. Going forward, I would like to submit 10 salient points (not in any particular order) you should not ignore before May 29, 2023 and even beyond. 1. MERIT FIRST: Merit is the quality of being particularly good. In all that you will do as President, place merit above all. “By merit, not favouritism, shall we attain our ends”, Plout remarked. 2. TAKING DECISIONS: You cannot make progress without making decisions. Life is determined by the decisions we make. With so many options available to us, making decisions can sometimes feel daunting and confusing. Like Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Nothing is more difficult and precious than to be able to decide. And in the words of Maya Angelou, “You may not control all the events that happen to you, but you can decide not to be reduced by them” We have seen you demonstrate uncommon courage in decision-making in the past. A particular case was the seizure of funds belonging to local governments in Lagos State by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2005. That action provided ample opportunity for Lagos to think like a sovereign state able to overcome its financial challenges. Remember the words of Roy Disney that “Decision-making is easy when your values are clear”. To become a great president, count on the words of Wesam Fawzi who said “The quality of life is built on the quality of your decisions”. We are our decisions, Professor Salam Al Shereida said. May your choices reflect your hopes, not fears, in Nelson Mandela’s unforgettable words of inspiration!

3. REWARD PHILOSOPHY: We are in a country where the entitlement mentality is profound and scary. But you must not mix this with reward philosophy. Reward is based on internal relativities, commitment and loyalty to the institution. One of our weak points has been the lack of appropriate reward for loyal, hard-working, patriotic and highly resourceful men and women. But given your pedigree, this should be a thing of the past. Not everyone can be in office (but) we must find a way of boosting and keeping the rank of progressives by running an all-inclusive administration (that would make) everyone to have a sense of belonging. Note that recognition is not a scarce resource; you cannot use it up or run out of it, according to Susan Heathfield. Kindly also note that many people work for money but go the extra mile for recognition, praise and reward, in the words of Dale Carnegie. As Robert Mcnamara noted, brains, like hearts, go where they are appreciated.
4. LESS IS MORE: “Less is more” is about efficiency and optimum yield and value. It is the concept of minimalism popularised by the famous German-American architect, Ludwig Van de Rohe. It is the value of simplicity and that, by having less, you can actually create a life of more. In applying this philosophy in governance, many have spoken of a smart/lean government that guarantees efficiency: Government of quality and not quantity. I know some will argue whether this is possible under our present political dispensation; I believe it is possible. One of the things that should define your government is to try things not because they are popular but because they are ideal and sustainable. We should restructure the system. The dead weight is immense and unsustainable. We should shed our weight, else we perish in illusion. There is no gain without pain! If the government is lean, resulting in a healthy and wealthy country, we all are gainers.
5. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE PROBLEM: In 2015, one of the “mistakes” was to underestimate the rot left behind by the defeated government of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Avoid this! Go to Aso villa with the mindset that all is not well in the polity. And, of course, arm yourself with the notion that the anthem of corruption is unchanged despite hard efforts. Like Robert H. Schuller said, never underestimate your problem or the ability to deal with it. 6. THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX: Modern times demand this, especially in the face of scarce resources and global competition. You need to explore ideas that are creative and unusual and are not limited or controlled by rules or traditions. Results posted in the last 8 years have indicated that we need to think differently, be unconventional and see things from a new perspective, especially in addressing the three cardinal points of the (Muhammadu Buhari) administration. The beginning of greatness is to be different and the beginning of failure is to be the same, according to Roy Whittier.

7 LOW HANGING FRUITS: These are easy-to-accomplish tasks or easy-to-solve problems in a particular situation. For Nigeria, job opportunities rank high. Anything that can bring down the embarrassing unemployment figures in the country within the shortest possible time and halt the growing restiveness of the youths should be explored. Live up to your promise to make youths believe they can work with you and that they have a future in Nigeria. Of course, the stress induced by the mismanagement of the CBN’s money-change policy and the subsidy quagmire demand your immediate attention in office. However, remember that the higher hanging fruits are typically riper and more nutritious. 8. PROTECT THE WEAK: “Defend the weak, protect both young and old, never desert your friends; give justice to all, be fearless in battle and always be ready to defend the right” – The Law of Badger Lords, Brian Jacques. Defending and protecting the weak is self-preservation. It is simply logical. One day, you and I might become weak and can expect others to help us do the same we did to them or to others. Take a great number of people out of poverty. Whilst providing a suitable environment for the strong to get stronger, the weak and poor should also be strengthened. Do the strong have the obligation to help the weak? They do! Remember the metaphor, “EAT THE RICH!” 9. LEAVE A LEGACY: You already made it clear at Abeokuta when you said “I don’t want to be forgotten. Give me the Presidency. It is my turn” This implicitly means you will like to live and be remembered. Leaving a legacy means giving something that will be valued and treasured by those who survive after your passing. The one legacy that comes to mind is leaving the situation better than you met it: A more united, peaceful and secured nation (and) an industrialised and sustainable nation! But it takes hard work!

10. REBUILD PATRIOTISM: Can the average Nigerian die for his country today? Patriotism is the feeling of love, devotion and sense of attachment to one’s country. Over the years, love for the Nigerian flag or passport has waned. Many Nigerians have lost their patriotic zeal and spirit for one reason or the other. Apart from a strong and healthy economy, safety and security, inspirational leadership is key to sustaining the spirit of patriotism, especially among the youths. The Nigerian Orientation Agency should be restructured and empowered to power an advocacy strategy that can make Nigerians want to live, work and die for their country if need be. Leadership by example should be the watchword. We need leaders who will inspire through their lifestyle. We all have to make the necessary sacrifice to achieve this just as Bob Riley noted when he said “I have long believed that sacrifice is the pinnacle of patriotism”. Oscar Wilde also wrote: “Show me the heroes that the youth of your country look up to and I will tell you the future of the country” Patriotism is a thing of the heart. A man is a patriot if his heart beats true to his country, according to Charles E. Jefferson”.

How many of the inspirational ideas espoused above by Akintunde has Tinubu imbibed in his short spell in power? If morning shows the day, as the elders say, what has Tinubu’s first two months in office demonstrated to Nigerians? Perhaps, it is too early to make definitive statements about Tinubu and his fledgling administration. He is even yet to have a full cabinet as it were. I recommend the 10 points above to anyone who can get them to Tinubu and or his kitchen cabinet. I am sure you know that a new set of cabals has since replaced the Buhari cabals who are now out there in the cold. Nature abhors a vacuum. Every rule – be it monarchical, absolutist, theocratic, dictatorial, proletariat, representative or democratic – is by a few over the majority. As one cabal expires and exits, another quickly emerges and takes its place. True, then, are the words of Rousseau that “Man is born free and everywhere he is in chains”

Rest on, Prof. Lai Oso

Our paths first crossed when I was chairman of the Editorial Board of PUNCH newspapers and he had come for his sabbaticals. Unassuming, quiet and hard-working, the Board members learnt a lot from him, especially those of us who did not read Journalism or Mass Communication as first degree. He, too, must have been enriched by the practical aspect of the job that we exposed him to. After he returned to his post as the Head, Department of Mass Communication, Moshood Abiola Polytechnic, Abeokuta, I had cause to barge in on him one day seeking admission into the HND class for a friend. He was presiding at a meeting when I sent in my call card through his secretary; he promptly came out of the meeting to attend to us. “Consider it done”, he told me, and that was it. For the two years that my friend spent in that school, Lai Oso treated her – and I each time I visited – like royalty. Eternal rest, grant him, O Lord, and the family the strength and fortitude to bear this irreparable loss!

George Akume, secretary-general to the government of the federation (SGF), says President Bola Tinubu is committed to fulfilling his promise of improving the lives of Nigerians.

In a series of tweets on Saturday, Akume reeled out actions the Tinubu administration is taking to fulfil the All Progressives Congress (APC) manifesto.

Another Weekend is here- 20 Nuggets To Chew On

As our team takes shape, I want to remind you all that @officialABAT came prepared- he came with a plan. He knows what to do & he is doing it. He has nurtured this vision for decades and he is now bringing it to life #TheAsiwajuPlan pic.twitter.com/YPvqhOZ2Pm

 

— Senator Dr. George Akume (@SGFAkume) July 22, 2023

Some of the plans, the SGF said, is to stabilise the surging price of petrol in the country.

In his inaugural speech as president on May 29, Tinubu announced the removal of petrol subsidy which immediately led to a hike in the pump price of the product across the country.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, which also increased the price of petrol at its retail outlets, said the change was due to market forces.

TheCable had reported that transport costs soared by over 100 percent in the wake of the president’s speech.

Speaking on the situation, Akume said Tinubu’s vision to restore the country has been in the works for decades and that the president is addressing the solution.

He asked citizens to be patient while the government unveils a plan to improve the country’s economy.

“As our team takes shape, I want to remind you all that @officialABAT came prepared- he came with a plan. He knows what to do & he is doing it. He has nurtured this vision for decades and he is now bringing it to life #TheAsiwajuPlan,” the SGF tweeted.

“As a government, we have heard your cries about fuel price increases, and be rest assured, we are working round the clock to normalize & bring solutions that ease the pain. Our job is to give you the quality of life you deserve when you wake up. So far, we are on course.”

The former Benue state governor described the petrol subsidy regime as regressive, adding that the annual payments were not sustainable and that Tinubu “had to act”.

Although he noted that the immediate effect is not favourable, the former senator asked Nigerians to be patient.

“To this end, we are already working out modalities to ensure market forces normalize pricing while we drive policies that better your lives & boost your earning power. We have a clear economic restoration plan, so I urge you to trust the process,” he said.

Akume said Tinubu’s actions of unifying the exchange rate and rejigging the country’s security architecture were proof of his commitment to using strong measures in securing the country’s future.

“Deregulation is only the first part of this process/plan. Other health, education, agriculture, infrastructure, and more measures will come on stream soon. #HolisticSolution #NigeriaISBack,” the SGF added.

[TheCable]