Nigeria has become less stable in the past year and can now be categorised as ‘vulnerable’ based on an instability risk index, according to a new report.

SBM Intelligence, a pan-African think tank, ranked Nigeria as a ‘vulnerable’ country and one of the “biggest losers” in sub-Saharan Africa on its instability risk index. This was disclosed in its recent Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI) which assesses the political, economic and social factors frustrating stability in African countries.

The report spotlighted 48 West, Central, East and Southern African countries. These countries, according to the report, “were grouped by region as delineated by the African Development Bank.”

However, the think tank explained that North Africa was “exempted because of the sub-Saharan focus of this study.”

Although Mauritania and Western Sahara are mapped to West Africa, they were exempted from the study due to what the SBM Intelligence described as “a paucity of data, geopolitical considerations and a cultural and economic affinity with North Africa.”

The report sheds light on three key factors — history, economy, and geopolitics, as well as leadership and governance — and how they contribute to political instability in these countries.

It also evaluates the stability of the 48 African countries by considering indices like ethnic tensions, coup history, dominant ethnic groups, food security, poverty rate, debt sustainability, conflict and vulnerability, and economic diversity.

Countries are therefore categorised into six levels of stability — Red Watch, Critical, Warning, Vulnerable, Stable, and Safe.

The firm explained that a higher score indicates a higher level of political risk to business. According to it, a country that scores 70 and above is categorised under Red Watch.

Countries that scored between 60 and 69 are categorised as critical while those that score between 50 and 59 are placed under warning. Countries like Nigeria that scored between 40 and 45 are marked as vulnerable. Those that scored between 30 and 39 are marked stable while those that scored below 30 are marked safe.

“A lower score shows how stable a country is, while a higher one tells the opposite,” the firm noted.

‘Biggest losers, biggest gainers’

Countries like Botswana, Seychelles, Namibia and Zimbabwe joined Nigeria to earn the title of biggest losers.

Analysis by SBM Intelligence showed that Nigeria’s instability worsened as it ranked 45th this year, unlike the previous year when it ranked 39th and was marked “stable.”

This deterioration could be blamed on unfavourable government policies that weakened the country’s currency and eventually forced some big investors out of Nigeria.

It would be recalled that some multinational companies, including Kimberley-Clark, Procter & Gamble (P&G), GlaxoSmithKline Consumer (GSK) Nigeria, Equinor, Sanofi and Bolt Food, recently withdrew from the Nigerian market.

The exit was attributed to various challenges, such as foreign exchange shortages, rising energy costs, and declining consumer purchasing power amid high inflation.

“Botswana experienced a GDP decline of nearly 2% in the first quarter of 2024, and Zimbabwe experienced economic challenges such as debt and currency crises,” SBM Intelligence says, adding: “Nigeria, Africa’s fourth largest economy, ended the year with a score change of -6, following the exit of foreign businesses over weaker currency, rising inflation and other economic challenges.”

Meanwhile, five countries were crowned the “biggest gainers.” They include Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar.

“A cutback on governance costs drove Angola’s performance, while Madagascar’s GDP growth improved to 4.4 per cent in 2023 from 4.3 per cent in 2022,” the think-tank noted.

Regional perspective

The report indicates that Central African countries had the most representation in the top ten, with four countries present: Angola, Central African Republic, Chad, and Gabon.

West Africa followed closely in the top ten with three countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

“The regions with the lowest representations are East Africa, with 20% represented by Burundi and Madagascar, and Southern Africa, at 10%, with Eswatini as its sole representative. The worst-performing entities are shared by Eastern and Southern Africa, at 40% each–represented by countries such as Seychelles, Kenya, Mauritius, and Comoros on the East side and Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Zambia on the South,” the report noted.

However, Southern Africa retained its spot as the most stable region for the second year with a score change of -1.3, the report disclosed, noting that “Central Africa was the least stable, ending the year with a score change of 6.78, performing worse than East (1.07) and West (2.47). This performance can be explained by an improvement in South Africa’s economy, which grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024 from 0.1% in the first quarter.”

While the raging conflict between the Rwanda-backed M-23 militia and Congo “contributed to the relatively poor performance in Central and East Africa”, attempted coups and Islamist insurgencies “contributed to West Africa’s poor outing.”

The Federal University Gusau (FUGUS) in Zamfara state says Bernard Odoh, former vice-chancellor of the Nnamdi Azikiwe University (UNIZIK) in Anambra, fraudulently obtained his professorship.

BACKGROUND

On Wednesday, President Bola Tinubu dissolved UNIZIK’s governing council and sacked the institution’s vice-chancellor and registrar.

Odoh was described as “unqualified” for the role of vice-chancellor of the university, in a statement issued by Bayo Onanuga, special adviser to the president on information and strategy.

“The sacking of the governing council and officials followed reports that the council illegally appointed an unqualified vice-chancellor without following due process,” the statement reads.

“After the controversial appointment, the Federal Government stepped in to address tensions between the university’s Senate and the governing council of the 33-year-old institution.

“The government expressed concern over the council’s apparent disregard for the university’s governing laws in its selection process.”

ODOH FIGHTS BACK

However, in an interview with Arise Television on Thursday, Odoh said the president erred by firing him.

He added that since his appointment as vice-chancellor was not made through a press release, he cannot be removed through one.

The embattled don said he was qualified for the position of vice-chancellor of UNIZIK ab initio. He added that his appointment followed due process.

Odoh said the case against his appointment is before a federal high court and industrial courts.

He added that Tinubu and Tunji Alausa, education minister, should have waited for the verdict of the courts before booting him out.

Odoh said by leaving the university without a vice-chancellor, governing council and registrar, Tinubu has fomented crisis in UNIZIK.

The embattled university don added that two of the assessors, and a registrar from FUGUS who deposed to an affidavit on his professorship, are still alive and can back his claims.

‘PRODUCTS OF ADMINISTRATIVE FRAUD’

In a statement on Thursday, Yakubu Anivbassa, FUGUS registrar, said the documents referenced by Odoh were “products of administrative fraud”.

The FUGUS management said Odoh “was never a staff member of the university” and his claims are “tissues of lies and misinformation”.

“The Federal University Gusau hereby states in clear and unambiguous terms that the so called letters of offer of tenure of appointment as Professor and confirmation of promotion to the post of Professor, dated 30th April 2015 and 12th November 2015, being paraded by Dr Bernard Odoh are null and void,” the statement reads.

“The documents being paraded by Dr. Odoh Bernard Ifeanyi and purported to be certified true copies hurriedly endorsed by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, former Registrar of the Federal University, dated November 8, 2024, six solid years after the latter left the services of the Federal University Gusau, are products of administrative fraud orchestrated by Dr. Odoh.

“Dr Odoh working in cahoots with the former Vice Chancellor of the University and the Registrar, as there is no official record of Dr. Odoh’s employment in the custody of the University.

“Further proof of the desperation to perpetuate such illegality is the impersonation and usurpation of the duties of the current Registrar of the University by the former Registrar, Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, who procured a fake stamp to certify Dr. Odoh’s equally fake employment documents as true copies on November 8, 2024, six years after his disengagement from the university.

“Dr. Odoh Bernard Ifeanyi is not and has never been a tenure staff of the university, let alone being confirmed as a professor by the institution.

“Whatever claim to the contrary by Dr. Odoh is nothing but the antics of a drowning man who is hell-bent on using the good name of the Federal University Gusau, to give vent to his desperate ambition to become the Vice Chancellor of the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, through subterfuge.”

The registrar said certification of public documents is guided by the Evidence Act 2011, adding that requirements include payment of fees and a certified true copy.

Anivbassa added that the document must be sealed, dated and signed by the officer responsible for issuing the document with his name and title of his office.

“A careful perusal of the above requirements and their juxtaposition against the certification of Dr. Odoh’s documents by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura, clearly shows that the so called certified true copies fell short of the provisions of Section 104 of the Evidence Act, 2011 and are therefore, not legally tenable,” he said.

Anivbassa said Bawa, having left FUGUS as a registrar in 2018, has “no locus” to certify university documents.

“Therefore, the so-called certified true copies of Dr. Odoh’s documents relating to his alleged employment as endorsed by Ibrahim Bawa Kaura on November 8, 2024, are illegal, criminal, null and void and of no effect whatsoever,” the statement added.