The Court of Appeal in Gombe has upheld the conviction of the Auditor-General for Local Government in Yobe State, Alhaji Idris Yahaya over financial misappropriation.

Delivering judgment, a three-member panel of justices led by Justice A. A. B. Gumel upheld the conviction of Yahaya and unanimously dismissed the appeal and consequently affirmed the judgment of the trial court.

Recall that Yahaya was convicted and sentenced to five years imprisonment by a Yobe State High Court on March 13, 2023 on EFCC charges of misappropriating the sum of N19 million.

Yahaya was said to have received funds from the Office of the Auditor General for Local Government and Emirate Affairs, Yobe State, for the purchase of an official vehicle, a 2015 Toyota Corolla, and diverted part of the money to his personal use.

According to the single count, Yahaya was alleged to have between May 20 and 21, 2017 at Damaturu, received the amount into his account number 1001480930 with account name Alhaji Yahaya Idris domiciled in United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA) from the Local Government Audit Account Number 5030030060 domiciled in Fidelity Bank Plc.

The inability of the Federal Government to secure and develop Nigeria’s border communities is contributing to the lingering security crisis bedeviling the nation, DAILY POST reports

Enquiries show that banditry, kidnapping, farmer-herder conflict and insurgency being experienced in the country are consequences of the fallout of the Libyan conflict and the influx of foreign mercenaries into the country.

This was not unconnected to why the former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019 closed land borders in an attempt to stem the rising inflow of arms smuggling, foreign fighters, drug peddling, and other prohibited items into Nigeria.

In an effort to mitigate the influx of foreign mercenaries, the Buhari-led administration directed the then Comptroller General of the Nigeria Immigration Service, NIS, Muhammed Babandede, to protect the border against foreign invaders.

However, DAILY POST reports that despite the efforts of the Nigerian government, the country has continued to be infiltrated by criminal elements from neighbouring countries. Smuggling of firearms has also continued.

Concerned over the deteriorating security situation in the country, Nigeria’s former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon, on February 12, identified the porous borders as a significant contributory factor to the country’s security crisis.

Underscoring the critical role of border security, Gowon emphasised the imperative of strengthening border security measures to prevent external threats, and deter the infiltration of criminal elements from neighboring countries.

He said, “Our borders are very porous. Take the North West to the North East, that is close to a thousand miles, some of the perpetrators of these heinous acts are from across the border.

“We must identify these elements and deal with them. I think we should have more security manpower on standby with adequate infrastructure to ensure that our borders are well guarded in case of any eventuality.”

Border as escape route for criminals

Study has shown that nearly all terrorists and other criminal elements think of one or the other form of escape before or immediately after perpetrating a criminal activity.

The current state of Nigerian borders across the country has been aiding and abetting the escape of criminals after committing heinous crimes.

DAILY POST recalls that in May 2022, the prime suspect in the murder of a 200-level student of Shehu Shagari College of Education, Deborah Samuel Yakubu, escaped to the Republic of Niger after committing the crime.

According to the police, the man whose face was captured in the viral video of Deborah’s cruel killing, was suspected to be a foreigner from the neighbouring country.

A security source, who preferred not to be mentioned, told DAILY POST on Saturday that the security of border communities has remained one of the major challenges of the Nigeria Police in the ongoing fight against insecurity in Nigeria.

He said, “One of the challenges of the police is this issue of lack of secured borders. Most times, when a terrorist is declared wanted, you won’t see them in Nigeria again.

“This is a big issue mostly in the Northern part of the country. For instance, when the notorious Benue gang leader, Terwase Akwaza, also known as Gana was declared wanted years before he was killed in 2020, he left the country.

“The terrorist and his gang operated within Benue and Taraba State. It was after he was killed that we learnt that he usually escapes to Cameroon whenever security operatives are after him.

“Himself and other members of the gang used to pass through Kurmi Local Government of Taraba State and escape to Cameroon where nobody knew them. So border security is very important in the ongoing fight against insurgency in the country.

“If you go to Kastina and some other states in the North, the same thing happens even till date. Suspects continue to escape through the border to Niger. Some of them even speak Nigerien languages so they will go there and behave like they are citizens of the country.

“Don’t forget also that the same thing happens when terrorists or any criminal elements are wanted in neighbouring countries, they usually find ways to escape to Nigeria too.”

A security expert, Ben Ijeoche also told DAILY POST on Saturday that the Federal Government “should declare war on the smuggling of firearms into the country”.

According to Ben, “the government claims that the borders are closed, yet the bandits and the Boko Haram members keep smuggling firearms into Nigeria. Are they using magic?

“I think the government should declare war on these border problems. Tightening the border will in many ways stem the growing security crisis”.

On the claim that the assailants causing mayhem in the country are not Nigerians, Ben said, “you can’t categorically say that the bandits and terrorists are not Nigerians but when you hear people saying that the criminals are foreigners, there are elements of truth there.

“Hundreds of these guys are being killed at least in a year but you hardly see anyone looking for his or her missing son. So, is it that they don’t have parents or relatives? You can’t rule out the fact we have foreign criminals living among us”.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Immigration Service, told DAILY POST on Saturday that the “NIS is doing its best in securing our approved borders, while also policing the entire stretch of our land and coastal borders”.

When asked the challenges in the border security, Controller Tony Akuneme, Special Assistant to the Comptroller General on media told DAILY POST that “the issue is more challenging because we have our brothers on both sides of most border communities, so the contiguity as a result of similar cultures and religion makes it even more intriguing”.

According to Akuneme, “the NIS is deploying more men and materials towards the border areas to complement other security agencies all of which form the Joint Task Forces helping to secure the country.

“We are equally deploying technology now with the support of the Minister of Interior to ensure real time monitoring of activities along the border routes from our command and control room in Abuja.

“All we need is the support of Nigerians and more motivation from the federal government”.

Amid the free fall of the naira to the United States dollar, traders who deal in grains have devised a way to sell their wares to neighbouring countries for higher profits, Sunday PUNCH has learnt.

Many of them, who spoke to our correspondents, claimed that they preferred to sell their wares to the countries because they had stronger currencies compared to the naira.

This, several experts have said, may lead to hoarding and an artificial grain scarcity and can cause the price of the goods to further head north, thereby leading to a food crisis if nothing is done about it.

This is coming at a time when the country is battling severe hunger, as the prices of staples have increased by over 300 per cent.

A Cameroon-based Nigerian, simply identified as Ebere, described Cameroon as one country that was good for trans-border trade, adding that it was not lacking food.

He, however, said traders from Cross River State and other nearby states sold stockfish heads to Cameroonians to earn CFA franc.

Ebere told Sunday PUNCH that apart from stockfish heads sold by Nigerians to Cameroonians, iron rods were also being exported to the country.

He added that Nigerian traders also move stockfish heads to Gabon, adding that the increase in such trade had further strengthened the CFA franc against the naira, especially in the black market.

Ebere stated, “There is an increase in the sale of stockfish heads and iron rods by Nigerians. They (Nigerians) are ready to do business, especially when the currency they will receive will mean doubling or tripling their gains.

“Cameroon has food; the country even sells food items to Gabon, which is also a neighbouring country, but Nigerians make a lot of money selling stockfish and iron to Cameroonians. The interest there is the CFA franc.” 

A road transport operator, Mr Godwin Eze, who plies the Ikom-Mfum-Ekok border roads in the state, told Sunday PUNCH that high trade volume between Nigerian and Cameroonian traders stemmed from the cascading fall of the naira against the backdrop of the high value of the Cameroonian CFA franc.

He further noted that Cameroonian traders had infiltrated the Nigeria-Cameroon borders to neighbouring towns in the Ikom Local Government Area of Cross River State to buy foodstuffs and other valuables and ferry same to their country for further sales.

Sunday PUNCH also gathered that apart from that, traders in Nigeria had also found Cameroon as a safe haven to market their foodstuffs, among other trade items, to have unfettered access to the Cameroonian currency, which at the moment is higher in value than the naira.

A trader involved in the trade, who begged to remain anonymous, confirmed this to one of our correspondents.

She said, “It is no longer news that we have a trading alliance with traders from Cameroon. Our politicians are stealing billions, so we too must find a means of making enough money to cater to our family needs since we don’t have access to government money.

“What crime did we commit by buying and selling with Cameroonians?”

A major trans-border grains and commodities merchant, Alhaji Abdullahi Aliyu, told Sunday PUNCH that 1,000 CFA francs were exchanged for N2,900 in the black market as of Saturday.

He said, “This shows a sharp contrast to just a few years ago when 1,000 CFA francs exchanged for as little as N320.

“With a comparatively strong naira to the CFA franc, we used to troop to Niger to buy so much rice and other essential commodities not available here just a few years ago.

“Now, the table has turned against us because the Nigeriens now seize the advantage of the drastic depreciation of the naira and exponential rise of their CFA franc to troop into Nigeria to buy as much of our grains as they can to resell in their country.

“To make sure they benefit from the depreciation of the naira to the utmost, many grain merchants in Niger, in a hot race for Nigeria’s food grains and other commodities, now even sell their residential houses to generate enough money for as much of the maize and millet as they can purchase from Nigeria to resell in their country.

“A bag of rice will cost around 22,000 CFA francs but in naira, it is around N75,000.”

The trader lamented that a Nigerien merchant having just enough to buy 10 sacks of Nigerian maize or millet just about a year ago, could now afford to buy 100 to 150 sacks with the same amount of money he traded for the 10 sacks a year ago.

Aliyu stated, “In one year, the draining of Nigerian grains to the Niger Republic through the Geidan (Yobe State) and Damasak (Borno State) borders has more than tripled.

“If the naira does not gain strength against the CFA franc, the situation may worsen next year.”

The trader also absolved any Nigerian farmer selling his grains to Nigeriens of any blame.

He added, “With the persisting economic hardship, the Nigerian farmer or grains merchant, who needs cash for pressing needs, will be tempted to sell his grains to the Nigerien who has the cash to give him than to his fellow Nigerian who doesn’t have the cash.

“So, in a short time, the food grains needed to feed a large population of Nigerians will be drained to the neighbouring countries, leaving Nigerians hungry, especially as they now do not have the money to cross the borders to buy food when they need to.”

Most exporters of foodstuffs from Sokoto State to the neighbouring Niger Republic have explained that their decision is the only way to make more money by selling their goods. 

They added that most of them shared family ties with Niger with many intermarriages happening between them.

A trader within Sokoto’s old market, Mallam Abubakar Salisu, who spoke to Sunday PUNCH, said he was in business to make money, hence he decided to sell his goods at any available market to maximise profits.

Salisu stated, “I honestly don’t know why there is a lot of noise about where we decide to do our business and who we sell to.

“I believe everyone is doing business to make money. Why will our own be different from others that Nigerians now take us to be criminals?

“I believe you know there is a huge difference between the Nigeria currency and CFA franc, which is the legal tender in Niger and Cameroon. That is one of the major reasons why I decided to go there to sell my grains.

“If I take my goods to Niger Republic, I will make double what I will get in the Nigerian market here. So, why will I remain here to sell when I can make more money by simply changing location?

“The government should fix the economy and allow us to do our business in peace. They should stop harassing us. We are not the ones who caused the economic woes.” 

A Nigerian rice seller in Niger Republic, Nuhu Illela, said even though he does a legal service, agents of the government still disturb him unnecessarily.

He said, “I have been selling the same rice in Illela (a border town in Sokoto) for over 20 years now without any rancour or disturbances.

“Since the closure of the border by the Economic Community of West African States, the rice we used to get from Niger Republic has stopped coming. That is one major reason food prices are increasing beyond the reach of ordinary citizens.

“I normally sell my products to our people in Illela, which is a border community between us and Niger Republic.

“Now that we don’t have the opportunity to get rice from Niger Republic, we resort to selling local rice here in the market and now the government looks at it as if we are criminals.

“I know some of my people here who have their families over there in Konni, Niger Republic. So, can’t I take my own goods to them to buy? What is my offence?

“Now that the government is setting up a task force to stop it, how do they expect us to survive and take care of our business and families? 

“What they are supposed to do as a government, they are not doing. Why can’t the government find a solution to the falling naira, which is the reason we are taking our goods to these countries to sell?”

Meanwhile, in order to curtail the continued exportation of foodstuffs to Niger Republic from the state and to tackle the smuggling and hoarding of foodstuffs in the state, the Sokoto State Government, on Thursday, approved the task force to deal with the menace.

The nine-member committee is headed by Dalhatu Sidi Mamman, while Col. Ahmed Usman (retd.) serves as the secretary.

Others members are the Garrison Commander, 8 Division; Comptroller of Customs; Comptroller of Immigration; Commissioner of Police; representatives of the DSS and the NSCDC; the Sultanate Council; and the Grain Sellers Association of Nigeria.

According to a statement signed by the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Abubakar Bawa, and made available to newsmen, the governor charges the task force members to identify all the routes through which smuggling activities are taking place.

The statement read in part, “To identify all hoarding facilities and ensure foodstuffs are released and sold to the general public at controlled prices. 

“To identify hoarders and smugglers and take appropriate action against them.”

It also noted that the government would take any necessary measure to ensure food sufficiency in the state, while the committee would report to the secretary to the state governor’s office periodically on all its activities.

Meanwhile, the Nigeria Customs Service, on Saturday, declared that it had intensified efforts to halt the illegal export of food items from the country, adding that it had intercepted food smugglers in Kano, Katsina, and Sokoto states.

It also warned members of the public to desist from smuggling food items out of Nigeria for selfish reasons to the detriment of the larger masses, stressing that culprits would be caught.

Recall that on Sunday the NCS revealed that it intercepted 15 trucks that were fully loaded with food items and were heading out of the country through the Sokoto State border.

It said the trucks were stopped and the food items were returned to Nigeria, adding that this was part of measures to stabilise the prices of food items across the country in line with the mandate of the Federal Government. 

When contacted on Saturday and asked whether there had been fresh seizures by the service, Maiwada, stated that interceptions were made in three states in the North.

He said, “We have some seizures or interception of some grains that were to be illegally exported out of the country for selfish desires by some members of the public.

“We have made several interceptions in Katsina, Sokoto, Kano, and around the Jigawa area.”

Maiwada urged Nigerians to desist from the illegal export of food items.

He said, “Our call on members of the public is not to fall for these unpatriotic acts by some elements who are only out to benefit themselves financially without recourse to the masses.

“So we encourage Nigerians to partake in legitimate trade and avoid anything that has to do with smuggling of items either into or out of the country.

“We will continue to re-strategise our enforcement strategies so that we will be ahead of them (smugglers).” 

Recall that while assessing the government’s action to tackle the hardship in the country, the All Farmers Association of Nigeria and the organised private sector had supported the decision of the President and the governors not to adopt importation as a solution to the biting food crisis facing the nation.

They also backed the planned action against hoarders as the NCS vowed to stop the smuggling of food out of the country.

The AFAN President, Kabir Ibrahim, had told one of our correspondents that the decision of the government to order food producers to release their products to the market would help check the continued rise in the prices of food items.

He said, “I encourage the security agencies to move in with some other government officials and ask people to open their stores to sell what they have at the prevailing prices. The commodities should be sold at the prevailing prices.

“Nobody is asking them to bring down their prices, for once they sell at the prevailing prices they will not lose anything. But hoarding is not allowed anywhere in the world. You cannot keep what is needed and make it scarce.

“So the government should move in and do all it can to address this situation in Nigeria now. The prices of commodities are rising and the government has to intervene to tackle this issue, and it has our support on this.”

The Nigeria Customs Service said on Saturday that it had, within the past month, seized contraband items worth over N13.352m.

This, it said, was across 15 different raids.

The seized items include 16,675 litres of petrol packed in 643×25-litre jerry cans and three × 200L drums; 20×50kg bags of foreign parboiled rice; and one used V/Wagon Golf with a big, reconstructed fuel tank, according to the Adamawa/Taraba Area Controller of the NCS, Salisu Abdullahi.

Ibrahim said on Saturday, “To put things into perspective, when someone takes things out of the country without paying duties, it is called smuggling.

“But if you look again at the Africa bilateral agreement, it presents that all of Africa is one market.

“By that, it is not illegal for any foreigner from Africa to come into Nigeria and Nigerians to go into neighbouring states for trade, but there are conventions and agreements which also require that things be done right.

• BDCs may resume FX transactions at official window tomorrow

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is evaluating a new set of guidelines to protect the financial system in  a follow-up to the recent ban on certain cryptocurrencies in Nigeria, The Nation learnt yesterday in Abuja.

The apex bank may authorise Bureaux De Change Operators (BDCs) to resume forex transactions at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) – the official market tomorrow.

Sources at the CBN said the planned measure on cryptocurrencies was not only to protect investors but also to safeguard the overall financial stability of the country.

The sources acknowledged the potential of cryptocurrencies but stressed the need for appropriate regulations to ensure that their coming does not get out of control.

One of the sources cited manipulative tactics, especially “spoofing,” in the unregulated peer-to-peer (P2P) crypto market.

Spoofing involves placing large buy or sell orders on a platform without intending to go through with the deal. This creates a false impression of supply or demand thus manipulating others to trade at prices that benefit the spoofers.

This deceptive practice, often coupled with schemes like “pump-and-dump”, has caused substantial financial losses for unsuspecting investors and contributed to the devaluation of the Naira. It has also fueled investor anxiety, further exacerbating market volatility.

Sources said it was important to revise the regulatory framework to “effectively combat spoofing and other manipulative tactics.”

“Previous guidelines focused on limiting banking involvement with cryptocurrencies but left the P2P sector largely unsupervised, allowing unethical individuals to take advantage,” one of the sources recalled.

This regulatory gap, he said, “has allowed spoofing and similar practices to thrive, undermining the market’s integrity and eroding investor confidence.”

The source proposed implementing “stricter measures for P2P platforms, establishing robust systems to monitor transactions, and imposing clear penalties for spoofing activities.

“These actions would discourage such manipulative practices and create a safer trading environment,” he said.

Another official of the CBN, who also spoke to The Nation on condition of anonymity, said the apex bank would align with the position of the Presidency and that of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

President Bola Tinubu’s aide, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, had expressed concern over  the potential impact of certain cryptocurrency platforms on Naira’s value in the foreign exchange market.

BDCs may resume FX transactions at official window Monday

President, Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, said yesterday that the CBN may authorise Bureaux De Change Operators (BDCs) to resume forex transactions at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) – the official market -tomorrow.

Gwadabe spoke after an emergency meeting with CBN officials in Abuja.

The apex bank is yet to issue a circular to that effect.

Meanwhile, the naira yesterday exchanged at N1,800 to dollar at the parallel market and N1,665 to dollar at the official market on Friday.

Gwadabe told The Nation that over 4,500 CBN-licenced BDCs would participate in the official trading transactions, where banks also trade as authorised dealers.

The BDCs are expected to fund their naira accounts with the CBN in readiness for the transaction.

“Our members will fund their accounts with the CBN on Monday (tomorrow) to enable them transact at the official window,” he said.

He said the apex bank warned the BDCs on the importance of rendition of returns and compliance with anti-money laundering regulations.

Gwadabe assured the CBN that BDCs would abide by policy on rendition of returns and continually provide detailed reports on how previous dollars sourced from the market were utilised.

The ABCON boss said the naira exchange rate against the dollar would crash going forward as more BDCs have access to dollars.

Gwadabe said although BDCs were happy with the resumption of dollar sales to operators, they were also requesting that the CBN should open more windows for them to operate, including having access to diaspora funds.

 “We want more windows to be opened for BDCs instead of restricting BDCs to official market funds,” he said.

 The CBN had on Friday proposed new regulations expected to significantly increase the minimum capital requirements for BDC operators in the country to N2 billion and N500 million for Tier 1 and Tier 2 licenses respectively.

This is a change from the previous requirement of N35 million for a general license.

This was contained in the Revised Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for Bureau De Change Operations in Nigeria- Exposure draft.

“The Guidelines revises the permissible activities, licensing requirements, corporate governance and Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CT) provisions for BDCs. It also sets out new record-keeping and reporting requirements, among others,” the publication said.

The updated regulations encompass numerous modifications to the guidelines governing BDC activities within the nation. Once approved, these updated guidelines will come into effect on a date determined by the CBN.

The apex bank had in June 2021, ended the sales of forex to BDCs, saying the parallel market has become a conduit for illicit forex flows and graft.

[TheNation]

Olisa Agbakoba, a former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), has outlined two steps President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must take urgently to avert anarchy in Nigeria.

Agbakoba, who noted that the frustration and anger in the country were palpable as a result of the worsening cost-of-living crisis, accused the government of not communicating hope to Nigerians.

He made the call in an exclusive interview with BusinessDay.

“It is clear that things are no longer at ease and there is a growing discontent in the country. We have had many challenges in Nigeria but the present discontent is remarkable as it concerns the growing inability of millions of Nigerians to cope with the completely unaffordable cost of living in the country. As the saying goes – a hungry man is an angry man,” he said.

The Maritime lawyer urged the Tinubu administration to make two quick interventions and solutions that may address what has the possibility to descend into an unrest.

“First, the government, as a matter of urgency, must stand on the bridge and communicate empathy and understanding, immediately.

“Second, government across Nigeria must devise emergency measures to address the hunger and lack being experienced by millions. Institutional support is of utmost importance,” he said.

Explaining the form the interventions should take, Agbakoba said: “Absolutely, free access for kids in school is vital. This must be followed by completely free health care and public transportation, massive cash transfers to the most needy is overdue. These are only stop gap measures.”

According to him, “Policy decisions that enable manufacturers produce and give value to the Naira is of utmost importance. Staccato of circulars coming out of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is largely unhelpful. Massive devolution of powers to the 36 states and 774 local governments is paramount and an emergency. The Federal Government cannot resolve the sufferings of 200 million Nigerians, by itself. People need to feel that the governments in Nigeria give empathy.”

He noted that “Lagos State has set an example, but more is needed. At the end of the day, measures that begin to resolve the tough choices in removal of petrol subsidy and floating the naira against the dollar is imperative. It is unclear how government proposes to support the new policy environment with strong action.

“Last but not the least is that government must not accept the prescriptions of multilateral institutions – especially the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, that subsidies are not a viable and workable policy. It is indeed, a good policy. The United States (US) spends half of its budget on subsidies and benefits which we call palliatives.

“The United Kingdom (UK) subsidises health care by spending billions. Public schools are free in the UK. France has announced a major electricity subsidy. The president has to lead the process to engage Nigerians and give them renewed hope that, at the turn of the corner inroad lay opportunities.”

Agbakoba, who expressed fears about the future of Nigeria, noted that there was a rapidly growing revolt across the country owing to the high cost of living and called on the government to take action to address the discontent being expressed by the people.

“I agree with those saying the Presidency is not leading by example by moderating their lifestyles and cutting down on the cost of governance. It is very clear. The empathy of the government is not apparent.

“There is something that former US President, Franklin Roosevelt said in the Great Depression years of America in the 1930s. The thing to do about making people happy is not to give them a job, you first give them hope. So, the government ought to be communicating hope. They ought to be saying ‘we are going through this difficult period but there is light at the end of the tunnel.’ This government is not communicating that at all, which I think is a big error.”

He pointed out that the failure of government to give the citizens reassuring words was worsening the situation in the country.

“Failing to communicate hope makes Nigerians depressed. It is not that Nigerians cannot live with high food prices. They will always find ways to manage difficult situations. Even IBB (Babangida) said he doesn’t know why Nigeria has not collapsed,” he said.

“The problem we have is that the government is not communicating hope. If you communicate hope and say to a person who has malaria that ‘don’t worry, in two weeks’ time you will be well’, that will lift the person’s spirits because he has that hope.

“But right now, the government is not telling us that in two or three months, we are likely to be in a better state. That is the biggest problem that the government is not communicating properly.

“The second one is that the government is not even telling us how we can come out of this problem. That is why as we are beginning to see, there is a slow revolt around the country, pointing to a protest of costs of living. It is everywhere.”

[Businessday]

The recent surge in cement prices has reverberated throughout the real estate market, sparking an unexpected increase in property abandonment.

Cement, as a fundamental building material, has seen its prices skyrocket due to a combination of factors, including supply chain disruptions and heightened demand. This surge has placed considerable strain on both property developers and homeowners, leading to a worrying trend of abandoned properties.

For property developers, the spike in cement prices presents a formidable challenge. The increased construction costs force developers to grapple with the decision of either absorbing the additional expenses, risking reduced profits, or passing them onto consumers through higher property prices.

In regions already struggling with affordability issues, such cost escalations further compound the challenges of accessing homeownership, potentially dampening demand.

Homeowners, on the other hand, find themselves burdened with escalating maintenance and renovation costs as a result of the cement price surge. Many homeowners are now faced with the dilemma of whether to invest in costly repairs or abandon their properties altogether. For some, the financial strain of upkeep outweighs the perceived value of their homes, leading to a growing number of abandoned properties across various communities.

Last the years

Sunday PUNCH findings showed that the prices of cement ranged between N3,300 and N3,500 in Lagos and Ogun states in March 2021 but jumped to between N6,500 and N8,000 in both states as of the first week of February.

Dangote Cement’s Group Executive Director in charge of Strategy, Portfolio Development, and Capital Projects, Devakumar Edwin, had in 2021 attributed the high cost of cement in Nigeria to the global rise in demand for cement as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.

“Nigeria is no exception as a combination of monetary policy changes and low returns from the capital market has resulted in a significant increase in construction activity. To ensure that we meet local demands, we had to suspend exports from our recently inaugurated export terminals, thereby foregoing dollar earnings,” he said.

In 2022, the Block and Concrete Producers Association, Enugu State chapter, decried the continuous increase in the prices of cement and other materials used for block production.

The President of the association in the state, Igwe Ukaegbu, had lamented that the continuous rise in cement price was negatively affecting the production output of and income of members of the association, urging the Federal Government to intervene in the situation by granting more licences to industrialists to produce cement.

“The challenge we have is the cost of cement and even sand. Everything is now costly. We are not making sales as we used to; so, we are suffering. We are praying for the government to help us by bringing down the prices of cement and other materials.

“Before, one could sell 3,000 to 5,000 pieces of block in a month; but now, before you sell 1,000 pieces of block, it is very difficult. The cost of cement in Enugu now is N4,550 per bag. Some people are selling for N5,000.”

In 2023, the Cement Producers Association of Nigeria warned that the ongoing plan of the Federal Government to introduce concrete roads could raise the price of cement to N9,000 per bag from the current price of N5,000.

They also called on the current administration, in a statement, to permanently address the perennial cement price hike problem by facilitating larger participation in the cement industry, noting that Nigerians had no business buying cement for more than N5,600 per bag.

The statement read in part, “Our findings from various parts of the country show that cement sells for as high as N6,000 per bag in the rainy season. Our prediction is that it will sell for over N9,000 per bag in the dry season, especially with the pronouncement of the Minister of Works on cement technology and the marching order on housing by Mr. President if the government does not take proactive steps.

“While we commend the minister’s position on cement-made roads, we warn of the dire consequences if the supply end is not properly addressed. It would amount to a dereliction of duty not to intervene, and the time is now.

“To do otherwise is to continue in a worsening pipe dream that prices would suddenly drop on this essential input that will continue to drain the purse of Nigerians, render them homeless, encourage chaos between demand and supply, and worsen the infrastructure deficit it sets out to cure, and lead to an unprecedented price hike.”

However, in 2024, the hopes for reduced construction expenses for aspiring homeowners might turn into a distressing reality, considering the recent surge in cement prices initiated by producers last week.

This uptick has already set off a chain reaction in the market, leading to over a 100 per cent increase in prices within a short time. As a result, some property developers have ceased their construction projects, and individuals constructing their residences are pursuing variations in their contracts.

Findings by our correspondent showed that operators within the Cement Manufacturers Association of Nigeria increased the prices of the product. Consequently, retail prices increased from N7,000 to N9,500, and N13,000 nationwide as of Wednesday, February 21, 2024.

Developers groan

A bricklayer, Asumo Tyler, told Sunday PUNCH that he was shocked when he realised that he had to pay N6,500 or N7,000, depending on the area, for the same bag of cement he bought at N5,300 the previous week, a development he said had halted his hope of owning a home.

He said, “I am currently building my house. I had to stop building because of this increase, I was initially thinking the price would come down, till the shock I received upon purchase last week.”

Similarly, the Chief Executive Officer of Magnificent Choice Services Project and Engineering Ltd, Jeremiah Akinsele, said his firm had to stop all the projects it was working on presently, renegotiating terms with the clients involved.

He said, “It has been difficult as we had to stop all works for renegotiation purposes, all building materials gone up. We bought cement at N7,300 on Wednesday, February 7, in Sagamu, Ogun State. The confusing part is that most of the components of cement are sourced locally; I do not know why the impact of the dollar is so huge on the increase.

“As the prices of construction materials soar, exemplified by the surge in iron prices from N500,000 to N800,000, there is a looming risk of projects being abandoned. This is especially troubling as we continue striving to bridge the housing deficit gap.” 

In an exclusive interview with our correspondent, the President, African Real Estate Society, Kunle Awolaja, said the increase would bring up the cost of construction.

He said, “Once construction goes up, it is going to impact rents and property developments in the market. However, the way forward is once the foreign exchange issue comes down, we go for local raw materials.

“This is where the issue comes in. What are the local raw materials we have? Are we going to work with clay, and can we have mass production of these local materials? For now, the answer would be no. We should work with what we have.”

Also, the Managing Director of Fame Oyster & Co. Nigeria, Femi Oyedele, said since cement constituted about 50 per cent of the constituents of building materials and building elements in Nigeria, the increase would lead to an abandonment of properties.

He said, “Blocks are for walling, plastering and rendering of walls, screeding of floors, fixing of tiles, fixing of sanitary wares, etc. The increase in cement from N5,500 to N7,000 will affect the rate of construction starts. A lot of prospective property developers will hesitate to start construction and this will also affect sales of building materials. In the long run, it will affect the rental value of properties.

“The uptick in cement prices is anticipated to lead to a rise in abandoned properties, as numerous individuals already amid construction projects may opt to cease their endeavors. Furthermore, low-income earners may hesitate to embark on construction of their homes given the current economic conditions.”

Inflation

However, according to findings by Sunday PUNCH, cement companies, including BUA which had previously announced a reduction in ex-factory cement price to N3,500 per bag in October, reversed course and increased their rates due to a surge in production costs.

A cement dealer in Ogba, Lagos, Segun Abiola, pointed out that the increasing transport expenses and the devaluation of the naira were key factors behind the surge in prices. He highlighted the limited authority that dealers possessed in determining pricing.

Meanwhile, a cement vendor in the Iyana-Ipaja area of Lagos, Moshood Alimi, who revealed that a bag of Dangote cement was sold at N6,800 and Lafarge at N6,700, lamented his inability to stock cement due to the exorbitant cost of transporting them to Lagos, which he said would inflate the price per bag to as high as N7,500.

A building contractor, Seun Afolabi, while voicing his concerns over the detrimental impact of the cement price surge on the construction sector, highlighted the plight of aspiring homeowners who are now finding it increasingly challenging to afford the higher prices.

The story is not different from the experience of a developer, Opemipo Awoyeye, in the Sagamu area of Ogun, who stated that as of Monday, February 12, cement prices had skyrocketed to N8,000 per bag, signifying a substantial surge in cost.

Meanwhile, another developer based in the Obalende region of Lagos, informed Sunday PUNCH that cement prices fluctuated between N9,000 and N9,500, depending on the location, as of Friday, February 16, 2024.

 Housing deficit remains

The amount required to fund the housing sector in Nigeria and bridge the estimated 28 million housing deficit across the country is N21tn, the Federal Government said through the Bank of Industry.

In a report on Nigeria’s housing sector put together by BOI, the bank explained that “with a growing urban population, increasing construction costs, and declining household income, access to affordable housing is becoming more difficult for millions of citizens.”

The report, titled, “Institutional turnaround for the next level,” and obtained by our correspondent from the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria, stated that while N470bn was what the Federal Government budgeted for housing in 2022, the sector would require trillions of naira to close Nigeria’s housing gap.

It stated that of the estimated 206 million persons in Nigeria, about 95.1 million lived below the poverty line, and as such it was difficult for them to have access to their own homes.

Under the section on Nigerian Housing Market in the report, the bank said, “N21trn (is the) amount required to fund the housing sector,” adding that “28 million units (is the estimated) housing deficit.”

Operators react

Following the recent uptick in cement prices nationwide, the President of the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Nigeria, Dr Aliyu Wamakko, appealed to the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, to urgently convene discussions with cement manufacturers, adding that the goal was to mitigate further hardships for Nigerians.

Wamakko, speaking in Abuja on Wednesday, expressed deep concern over the intensified economic strain, highlighting that the price hike implemented by manufacturers in early January was unfavorable for both Nigerians and real estate developers.

“The price of ready-mix concrete will also be increased while the cost of in-situ production of concrete will rise significantly. Such an increment, if allowed to take place, will worsen the economic situation of the nation,” he said.

The DEDAN president said regular construction creates multiple employment opportunities which help to reduce the poverty index of the country as such the hike in the price of cement could come with undesirable consequences.

“The resultant effects of unemployment are banditry, kidnapping, and armed robbery. The federal government should also remember that we have a 28 million housing deficit in Nigeria. Cement is an essential ingredient in the production of buildings,” Wamakko added.

In an exclusive interview with Sunday PUNCH, the Executive Secretary of the Association of Housing Corporations of Nigeria, Toye Eniola, voiced apprehensions about the ongoing surge in cement prices, warning that it could spell the end of affordable housing prospects.

He said, “Why is it that it is the price of cement that is going up when about 90 per cent of building materials are available locally? But then the argument is that the cost of running the business has gone up, and we know that the economy is driven by the fluctuating forex which is affecting the operation.

“If those running the building material business have to use diesel it would be expensive because a litre of diesel is about N1,000. Hence, we cannot blame the manufacturers, but the policies in place.”

He, therefore, called on stakeholders to look inward and focus on local building materials.

“In the olden days, people made use of mortal bricks to build, and we still have interlocking blocks, among others, which make use of five per cent of cement. It is high time we began to embrace these technologies to build houses because it is the only thing that can instill hope in people.”

 No justification for price increase – Minister

In a bid to stem the rising cost of cement and other building materials and enhance the delivery of affordable housing in Nigeria, the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, recently called for a meeting with manufacturers of cement and other building materials in the country.

He also queried the recurring disproportionate increase in the price of cement in particular, especially considering that cement producers in the country sourced virtually all their raw materials locally.

Dangiwa said, “It is disheartening to see how much Nigerians have to pay for essential building commodities like cement, with the prices rising almost daily. I don’t understand the reason for this increase, and it is not acceptable.

“I am going to be meeting with these manufacturers soon so that they can explain to Nigerians their reasons for such incessant hikes. I know that cement producers source their raw materials in Nigeria; (these include) limestone, clay, silica sand, gypsum, iron ore, and the rest. These minerals abound in Nigeria and these manufacturers get them here, so there is no justification to try and blame it all on the rise of the dollar.”

He further assured that the government would create a conducive environment for the private sector to thrive, including through ensuring building materials are affordable and accessible.

It was earlier reported that cement manufacturers had agreed to sell a 50kg bag of cement at a retail price of between N7,000 and N8,000, depending on location nationwide, in their meeting with the Federal Government.

However, developers in the built environment rejected the price, asserting that the price negotiation reached was for the rich.

In an interview with our correspondent, the Executive Secretary of the Association of Housing Corporation in Nigeria, Toye Eniola, condemned the negotiation.

He said, “What is fair in N7,000 to N8,000, when BUA promised us a slash from over N5,500 to N3,500 and now they are negotiating N8,000? Where are we heading for?

“That negotiation is for the rich. What they are saying is with that price, housing is going not to be for the poor. With that price, there is no poor man that would be able to afford it and it would keep widening the deficit gap.

“The way forward is to go back to the basics, this is the time to embrace local building materials. For instance, we have interlocking blocks and we require about five per cent of cement for this which would save us a lot of money.

“Nigerian Building and Road Research Institute has done a lot of research on alternative building materials that can be used in Nigeria. For instance, they have researched the use of bamboo as an alternative to the iron rod.”

[Punch]

“Caesar, beware, the ides of March” – William Shakespeare, 1546-1616

As Shakespeare rendered it, in his famous book, JULIUS CAESAR, the Roman Emperor (Jagaban if you wish) was at the peak of his powers; without realising that a plot against him was in progress. A seer approached Caesar to warn the most powerful man on Earth then about impending danger. He was dismissed with a wave of the hand.

Then it happened and world history was changed forever. Don’t get me wrong. I am not predicting another assassination. But, all the signs of a major upheaval are already present in the Nigerian polity – as to make the next three months the most dangerous in our history since January 1966.

Never, since then, have so many Nigerians, old and young, rich and poor, male and female, irrespective of political affiliation, ethnicity, religion, employed or jobless, lost confidence in the Federal and most State governments as well. Unprecedented hunger, allied with deepest anger, ever experienced, is so pervasive as to leave one wondering when the explosion will occur and what will trigger it. We are all sitting on a box full of explosives.

The road to hell is always paved with good intentions – as a sage has warned us. And, it must be stated that we arrived at this crossroad – between salvation and oblivion – purely on the good intentions expressed as government policies on May 29, 2023. However, some other wise men have also cautioned us that good intentions alone are never enough.

For leaders, the best of visions must be accompanied with adequate preparations, taking into consideration the possible repercussions of measures contemplated – when they are revolutionary in nature especially. Those of us fed on the idea that visionary leaders are the best were jolted in 1993, when then-British Prime Minister John Major, pronounced that: “People with vision do more harm than good”. We thought Major was talking rubbish. Today, in Nigeria, we are on the brink of anarchy on account of vision. Only God knows how we can avert the worst case scenario.

FG leading from the rear

“Things are in the saddle; and they ride mankind” – Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882

Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, threw petrol into our burning house. NBS was only doing its job. But, when people were already up in arms about 28.80 per cent inflation in December 2023, the announcement that it was 29.90 per cent in January was not exactly how government can assuage the anger already built up. Inflation has become one of the things in the saddle; riding and flogging government and citizenry as well. It will again rise above 30 per cent in February – for various reasons which cannot be treated here.

Earlier in the same week, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN (friend or foe?), ordered import duties to be charged at N1, 550/US$1. The impact of that will start to be felt starting mid-February. Exchange rates have joined inflation in the saddle as one of the things in the saddle whipping all of us mercilessly. It will rise to about N2, 000/US$1 by the end of the second quarter of the year. More fuel.

“The most dangerous person to fight is someone who has nothing to lose.” I first learnt that bit of wisdom from a family friend in Boston, USA. Paul Frazier was a black American, well-decorated, Vietnam War veteran. He was sent home after suffering a spinal cord injury in 1971. We met in 1973 and he told me about the Viet Cong, the enemies. They were literally in rags; recruited and trained to carry and shoot guns.

Paul told me of one encounter in which the American forces, about 200, engaged in a shoot-out with about 1000 Viet Cong soldiers. The Americans had the superior weapons and could even call for air support. They mowed down hundreds of the enemy. Surprisingly, instead of turning round and running, the remaining enemy soldiers just kept moving forward. The American soldiers wanted to return home safely; the other guys didn’t care if they died or not. Eventually, it was the US soldiers who withdrew under air cover. For all we know, Nigeria might have its own bunch like that.

Our Almajiris are now mostly people with nothing to lose. They probably have formed the reserve army for bandits and kidnappers. The current food situation, which is already testing everybody’s resistance, might prove too much for these guys unless we can somehow ameliorate the hunger pains.

March 2024 will bear a remarkable resemblance to March 2004. Christians started Lent on February 14. Our Muslim brothers will start the Holy Month of Ramadan in early March. For about twenty eight days, practitioners of the two religions will be fasting simultaneously. Breaking fast with food is the least expectation. Right now, millions are already mini-fasting.

Having nothing on which to break their fast might prove to be the spark which will ignite the keg of gun powder on which the Sultan of Sokoto proclaimed we are sitting. Donor fatigue has set in everywhere in Nigeria. In the North in particular, where it has now become extremely risky to entertain Almajiris in one’s home, the lack of traditional support and social safety net poses serious danger, not only to the communities where the disturbance might start, but, they might spread to the entire nation on account of contagion.

Pray there is no strike

“The Devil always finds work for idle hands.” We know. Since May 29, 2023, the number of idle hands jumped up precipitously. More people have been thrown out of work in the last nine months than at any time in our history. Many have nobody to help them – but the Devil of course. And, he has been very busy recruiting from among the ranks of millions of unemployed youths especially.

The biggest immediate threat, which might precipitate anarchy, is the possibility of a national strike called by Organised Labour. If that includes street protests and occupation of some areas in Abuja , Lagos and possibly Port-Harcourt, with ripple effects in Kano, Kaduna and Ibadan, then we might be heading for another face-off taking us back to the #ENDSARS calamity. This one has the potential of becoming much bigger, more widespread and easily hijacked by hoodlums wherever it occurs.

Despite, the fact that Labour’s right to protest has always received my support, every morning in our prayer house in Lagos, we now pray fervently that the disputes between Labour and government can be resolved without resort to street protests. That, to me, is the spark required to ignite all combustible anger building up nationally. That also means that the FG and Labour must negotiate seriously; and promises made this time around must be kept.

Impediments to peaceful resolution

“If you shut up the truth and bury it underground, it will but grow and gather to itself such explosive power, that the day it bursts through, it blows up everything in its way” – Emile Zola, 1840-1902

Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to President Tinubu, spoke, truthfully, two weeks ago when he called Nigeria a poor country. But, because of our toxic political environment, most commentators ignored the message; and went after the messenger. Yet, Bayo was right for the most part. Potential and actual wealth are two different things. For instance, Nigeria is potentially richer, but, actually poorer than South Korea. We all know that. The difference has been in the development of that potential and corruption. I will not elaborate on that now.

Therefore, as we enter into negotiations on Minimum Wage, we need to be realistic; base our proposals on where we are, not where we should have been or where we hope to be ten years from now; because the wages will have to be paid from what is, or might be, available; not what we wish is available.

One false step on this matter and we might land in political hell.

That said; granted all governments lie to protect political interests; but, violent repercussions occur when too many falsehoods are thrown into the public domain. At a time like these, the credibility of the President is paramount. It is almost impossible to persuade the citizenry to absorb more hardship, in exchange for a brighter future, if few people trust the leader. Trust, meanwhile, cannot be compelled; it can only be earned by telling people the truth all the time. Say so, if only two months arrears were paid. Don’t announce that all arrears were settled; only for ASUU to refute it.

The major obstacle to peace, right now, is a truthful statement about the State of the Nation from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Fund me to write the truth about Buhari

“Liars ought to have good memories” – Algernon Sydney, 1622-1683.

A bunch of liars got together to write and launch books about Buhari’s eight years in office. In it, you will not read about N30 trillion Ways and Means scam, N53 billion spent to feed fictitious children during COVID-19 lockdown; the N100 billion for which the Accountant General, under him, is being charged or how a plane borrowed from Ethiopian Airlines was painted and launched as NIGERIA AIR. Liars don’t tell you about such things.

I started my own book on Buhari two years ago; funded it myself and now I am stuck. Inflation and exchange rate threaten publication of the truth about Buhari. I need help – your help – to finish the job. 

Their book was advertised for N200, 000. I can deliver the truth for N20, 000 or less. Can you help? Please, get in touch.

A ship carrying 30,000 liters of suspected Nigerian crude oil theft has been intercepted as a result of a cooperative operation between the Nigerian and Cameroonian naval forces.

Commodore Rotimi Oderemi, the Commander of Nigeria Navy Ship, NNS Victory, disclosed this on Saturday during the ship’s inspection at Ibaka in the Mbo Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State.

Oderemi who spoke with reporters said the MV Jasmine was discovered in Nigerian national waters from reliable information and cooperation with the Eastern Naval Command Center.

He claimed that NNS Ekulu, a patrol boat in the Nigerian Navy, was assigned the task of intercepting the suspected ship and questioning its crew.

“Upon noticing NNS Ekulu, the suspected vessel proceeded to the international waters between Nigeria and Cameroon, just as NNS Ekulu was in its hot pursuit.

“Resulting from our collaboration and with the support of the Cameroonian Navy, the vessel was intercepted and brought to Ibaka with eight Nigerians on board.

“Thirty thousand litres of crude oil is a huge volume. It can fetch N40 million at the international crude oil market,’’ he said.

The federal government says President Bola Tinubu will travel to Qatar for a state visit on March 2.

The government announced the trip on Saturday following a leaked memo showing that the Arab nation declined a proposed investment forum on the sidelines of the president’s visit.

TheCable understands that the business and investment forum was proposed by the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA).

In the memo dated February 22 and addressed to the ministry of foreign affairs, the embassy of Qatar in Abuja had said there is no agreement between the Arabian country and Nigeria on investment promotion and protection.

The embassy said Mohammed Bin Hamad Al-Thani, the country’s minister of commerce and industry, would be “carrying out official missions outside the country during the upcoming visit period”.

“The Embassy has the honour to inform that the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in Qatar apologizes that it will not be able to hold a Business and Investment Forum as proposed by the Nigerian side due to the following reasons: Unfortunately, there is no any agreement signed between the State of Qatar and the Federal Republic of Nigeria on Investment Promotion and Protection,” the letter reads.

“His Excellency the Minister of Commerce and Industry will be carrying out official missions outside the country during the upcoming visit period.

“The State of Qatar will be hosting a Web Summit during the suggested period, and the State’s authorities will be preoccupied with this event.”

‘WE WON’T COMMENT ON LEAKS’ 

In a statement, Francisca Omayuli, spokesperson for the ministry of foreign affairs, confirmed Tinubu’s proposed visit to Qatar.

“The Federal Republic of Nigeria and the State of Qatar have a long history of friendship and close bilateral relations. The forthcoming visit to Doha by HE President Tinubu will help build on this important relationship,” the statement reads.

Omayuli said the ministry is “aware of the circulation in the media of diplomatic correspondence and wishes to confirm that it will not comment on leaks”.

In September 2022, the Middle East country rejected the planned visit of former President Muhammadu Buhari over the country’s preparation for the 2022 World Cup.

The government of Qatar had asked the federal government to propose a new date for the visit, preferably “during the first quarter of the year 2023”.

[TheCable]

As I was saying, I have witnessed several episodes of economic hardship in Nigeria. I lived through the “austerity measures” of 1982/83 as the economy went into a storm basically because of falling oil revenue. Prices of basic stuffs doubled overnight — that was if they were available at all. I also lived through the sapping crisis of 1986/87 when the military government introduced the structural adjustment programme (SAP) in an attempt to tackle our economic pathologies. I must now necessarily conclude that the current crisis, caused by falling oil revenue (as usual) and forex scarcity, is one of the most devastating. The collapse of the national currency has been rapid and relentless.

The bad news is that things could get worse. Every successive government is always rated as worse than the previous. There is a million reasons for that, but the structural issues with the economy remain largely unsolved from one administration to the other. We keep running into this vicious cycle of devaluation and inflation and unemployment and economic hardship whenever there is a drought of petrodollars. As the Yoruba would say, “For as long as your robe harbours lice, your fingernails will be blood-stained” (since you will keep killing the parasite). Every economic crisis since 1982 has been principally triggered by our overdependence on petrodollars. We always hope for another oil boom.

When Gen Ibrahim Babangida overthrew Maj-Gen Muhammadu Buhari in 1985, then-Brigadier Joshua Dogonyaro said in his coup speech: “The economy does not seem to be getting any better as we witness daily increased inflation.” Babangida inherited the economy almost in the same state Buhari met it when he overthrew President Shehu Shagari in 1983. Although Buhari was fiscally disciplined, Babangida still had to deal with the huge public debts, high unemployment, unpaid salaries and unmet forex obligations that had started mounting under Shagari. The fastest way out of the forex quagmire was to take a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We resisted it.

In 1986, Babangida came up with SAP in trying to tackle the economic problems. The agricultural policy focused on enhancing farming of cash crops in which Nigeria had competitive advantage — to address food shortage, create jobs and bolster the non-oil sector. Even though we did not take the IMF loan, we adopted similar stringent reforms the financial institution would have demanded in the first place: removing subsidies, liberalising the forex market and cutting down on public spending. Read that again. Is that not what we are still trying to do today? Any stranger reading the story of Nigeria, whether on the economy or politics, should be forgiven for thinking we are on auto replay.

Babangida had, in 1986, abolished the discretionary import licensing regime and created the second-tier forex market (SFEM) for importers to access foreign exchange. What happened next? The naira fell to about N4/$. That was massive depreciation for a currency that had been stronger or roughly at par with the dollar for years, even if it was as a result of official pegs. Alas, SAP came at a time when oil price had crashed from $27/barrel to below $10. It was double whammy. In fact, triple whammy. To reduce budget deficit, Babangida kept raising fuel prices. From 20 kobo/litre that he met in August 1985, petrol price nearly doubled by March 1986. Transport fares and cost of living went gaga.

Nigerians began to regret that Buhari was overthrown. By contrast, Buhari did not increase fuel prices or allow the naira to depreciate in his 20 months in office. But the economic implications were inescapable: forex remained scarce, leading to strict currency restrictions (Fela was jailed in 1984 purportedly for exceeding the PTA cash limit of £50-per-traveller while going for a foreign tour), while debts and deficits kept hampering public finance. GDP growth was negative in 1984 but recovered on the back of higher oil prices in 1985. Still, the GDP growth did not translate to jobs. There can’t be plenty jobs when factories are not expanding output because of poor income and low consumption.

The exchange rate kept falling under Babangida, hitting about N8/$ in 1989. There was intense public debate over the economic hardship. The blame was placed at the doorsteps of Western “imperialist” agents, namely the World Bank and IMF, for prescribing bitter pills for us. Obasanjo, who had handed over a robust economy to Shagari in 1979, famously said in one of his media interventions that SAP must have “human face”. All that Nigerians could feel was hardship. No economic theory would calm the distressed masses. Prices of goods cannot be skyrocketing and you will be gleefully announcing — as Chief Olu Falae, Babangida’s minister of finance, usually did — that “the GDP grew in Q2”.

In fairness to Babangida, he provided “SAP relief”, notably rolling out mass transit buses, student bursaries and automatic jobs for 60,000 graduates. Still, the consensus was that SAP failed, although it achieved significant results among rural farmers and opened up the economy through the privatisation and commercialisation programme that laid the foundation for private sector participation in finance, aviation, telecoms and broadcasting. But the ultimate verdict of the masses who endured the high cost of living and agonising pains of poverty was that SAP failed woefully. In fact, SAP was seen as Nigeria’s problem — although it was actually conceived to solve the problem.

With public unrests and riots, Babangida had to reverse or soft-pedal on many policies because of public unrest. In the end, reform is as political as it is technical. One of the major criticisms was that too many hard-hitting measures were being unleashed on Nigerians at the same time. Today, Nigerians are witnessing the most SAP-like reform since 1986. One question I asked ahead of the 2023 elections was: why would anybody want to be president of Nigeria now? We were spending over 90 percent of our revenue to service debts and taking on new loans, mostly from the money-minting CBN, to pay salaries and settle other government bills. Oil revenue was going down.

We were mortgaging our future oil production to subsidise the importation and consumption of petrol. We were running a multiple exchange rate regime that hurt companies and investors. We were facing an outstanding mesh of forex commitments running into billions of dollars with no idea of how to fulfil the obligations. The incoming president would have to take tough decisions, otherwise we would end up like Venezuela where unsustainable public expenditure went on for years until the collapse in oil revenue. For Nigeria, something was always going to give and ordinary Nigerians were going to ache the most. All they can see is the suffering, not how we got here.

And this takes me to my thoughts for today. I have been observing — with serious concern — the way President Bola Tinubu has been implementing his own reforms. Actually, I am worried. He is repeating the mistakes of many before him: treating reforms as purely technical, forgetting that it is human beings — not goats or lab rats — that are at the receiving end. To be clear, I am not against the reforms. They are not even optional given the state of public finance in Nigeria today. I am not against sacrifice. You cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs. But, as Obasanjo said in 1987, reform must have a human face. There is only so much Nigerians can take before things explode.

The two major reform policies of the Tinubu administration — petrol subsidy and forex — have dealt heavy blows on Nigerians and they are desperately gasping for breath. It is all the more painful because there was obviously no adequate planning for the implementation of these policies. The Nigerian government tends to be far removed from the realities on the streets. Decision makers often dump policies on the people without adequate planning, scenario mapping or impact assessment. When the policies begin to inflict unbearable pain, they will rush to roll out mostly ineffective and inadequate measures to cushion the effects. Always putting the cart before the horse.

In June 2023, petrol prices tripled at one blow after Tinubu had said, during his inauguration, that “subsidy is gone”. There was clearly no implementation plan or a relief package for the low-income people. It took weeks before government started planning how to roll out CNG-powered buses to ease transportation costs and give stipends to the poor. We started arguing over the validity of the social register. The next thing was a scandal in the humanitarian ministry at a time Nigerians were being directed to sacrifice. Three weeks after Tinubu directed that 42,000mt of grains be released from the reserves as part of his relief package, has any Nigerian received a mudu of millet yet?

The naira has been recklessly floated, falling headlong from less than the official N500/$ in May 2023 to over N1,500/$. Inflation has followed suit and people are crying. It is clear to me that this is trial and error. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) started releasing tonnes of circulars after the horse had bolted from the stable. Most of these ad-hoc responses would have been averted with proper thinking before the policy was implemented. I don’t know much about the financial markets but when you decide to float the national currency in this manner, there must be some safeguards to avoid a mighty fall. We cannot claim ignorance of the imperfections in the forex market.

Going forward, the Tinubu administration must do better with its policy choices. In a way, retaining petrol at about N600/litre even when the market price is over N1000/litre is an admission that some things are easier on paper, otherwise there could be an uprising. No matter how well intended reforms are, they have to be strategically paced. They must have a human face. There is a reason patients are given anaesthetics during surgery. There are obviously many other reforms ahead and things could be more bearable if the government is more strategic with them. As I was saying, reform should not end up as a case of “the surgery was successful but we lost the patient”.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

STATE OF AFFAIRS

A bill seeking to create three more states in the south-west geo-political zone alone has been introduced into the house of reps by Hon Oluwoke Oke, the member representing Obokun/Oriade constituency in Osun state. The proposed states are: Oke-Ogun, Ijebu and Ife-Ijesa. Meanwhile, to create just one state, you need concurrence of at least 24 houses of assembly, 72 senators, 240 reps, and presidential assent. Of course, we know Oke’s prank will not go anywhere, but I am just amazed that any serious human being would be cracking this joke at this time. The states we have are struggling to pay their bills. Most states are dead without the federation allocation. Ridiculous.

ABURE ABUSE

Mr Julius Abure, national chairman of the Labour Party (LP), was arrested in Benin on Wednesday by the police in what appears to be a very dehumanising manner. The police said Abure (alongside Kelly Ogbaloi, the LP chairman in Edo state) was arrested over a petition accusing him of attempted murder and conspiracy to commit “dangerous harm”. A picture of his arrest posted on social media appeared to show him sitting on the floor after being obviously manhandled. I do not know if he was trying to resist arrest — the police are yet to allege that — but if this can happen to the national chairman of a major political party, imagine the fate of the common Nigerian. Unprofessional.

DIRTY POLITICS

There is hardly any election in Nigeria that does not produce unnecessary and embarrassing drama on the part of politicians. The primaries of the three major parties for the Edo state governorship election will stand out as another example. The All Progressives Congress (APC) initially produced three “candidates”. The eventual candidate was chosen in a questionable manner. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) also produced two candidates, although we all know that Comrade Philip Shaibu was joking with his own parallel primary. Mr Olumide Apata, who eventually picked the Labour Party’s ticket, had to write INEC to raise the alarm on shenanigans in his party. Shame.

NO COMMENT

Does anybody still remember Senator Godswill Akpabio eulogising President Muhammadu Buhari at the valedictory FEC meeting in May 2023? He said: “May one of us succeed you in order to continue the good legacies you have laid on the ground. We have seen, and know, your vision. We know where you want the country to be.” He was a presidential aspirant then although he eventually withdrew. Less than a year later, and now senate president, Akpabio had this to say about the same Buhari: “By the time we went in to look at the economic situation of the country, it was terrible… the kind of debt and economic mess that we are in, a lot of people will not understand.” Wonderful.