The National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Ganduje has described his suspension as a flick from popular entertainment channel, Africa Magic.

Ganduje stated this when he received official reports of Saturday’s governorship primary election in Ondo State from the Kogi State Governor, Usman Ododo-led committee on Tuesday.

Speaking on his purported suspension from his ward in Dawakin Tofa Local Government Area of Kano State, he again accused the New Nigeria Peoples Party and Kano State Governor, Abba Yusuf, of masterminding his purported suspension to embarrass him.

Ganduje stated that irrespective of the mechanisms of their opponents, the party would remain focused and their attention undivided.

He said, “We were so astonished when we heard the news but we were not surprised when we discovered that the great threat that APC overwhelmingly poses to other parties is real and Kano State is not an exception.

“The government in Kano State is behind this drama. Even the drama is one kind of drama that is called Africa Magic. This is Africa Magic and it is not leading democracy anywhere.

“It is a negative innovation where members who belong to a different political party, not even our members, let alone being elected executive members of either the ward or to the highest level at the state, meet themselves and take resolutions that affect the nation as far as our party is concerned, that is not acceptable.

“Our party cannot be distracted, we assure you. Our attention cannot be diverted. We are focused. We know where we are heading. We know our objectives and we know how to achieve our objectives.”

[NaijaNews]

First City Monument Bank (FCMB), a tier 2 lender, recorded its highest profit in 10 years.

The company’s profit grew by 206 percent to N95.52 billion from N31.13 billion in 2022.

FCMB saw a growth in its profit before tax of N101.46 billion in the full year 2023, representing a 177.4 percent growth from 2022.

In its unaudited annual report and financial statements for 2023, the group recorded gross earnings of N516.8 billion during the year, representing an 82.6 percent growth from in 2022.

The financial institution enjoyed increased interest income, as it recorded a net interest income of N177.42 billion in 2023, representing a 45.4 percent growth from 2022.

Regarding net income, FCMB Group reported a 206.9 percent growth as it posted a net income of N95.52 billion in 2023, from N31.13 billion recorded in 2022.

Its total comprehensive income also grew by 306 percent to N145.69 billion in 2023, based on a N26.52 billion gain accrued from foreign currency translation differences.

The Group recorded a trading income of N11.09 billion on FGN bonds in 2023, representing a 98.3 percent increase from 2022.

In the fiscal year 2023, FCMB Group significantly augmented its portfolio in securities assets, reaching a total of N478.23 billion. This figure marks a surge of 86.9 percent compared to the N255.87 billion recorded in the previous year, 2022.

Notably, the lion’s share of this investment was directed towards Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bonds, amounting to N380.27 billion. This represents a substantial increase of 94.6 percent when compared to the N195.37 billion allocated to FGN bonds by the group in the fiscal year 2022.

Over the years, the bank has developed a comprehensive range of financial solutions tailored to support Nigerians in their journey towards wealth creation and preservation.

These exclusive offerings encompass every stage of the wealth-building process, from accumulation to safeguarding. They include target and premium savings, wealth and investment management, pension schemes, and estate planning services such as wills and trusts.

The target and premium savings plans cater specifically to upwardly mobile professionals and entrepreneurs, laying a solid groundwork for financial growth. Meanwhile, the wealth and investment management services cater to high-net-worth individuals, assisting them in building and safeguarding their assets for the future.

FCMB recently received recognition for its leading role in supporting small and medium-sized enterprises as well as green projects.

Yemisi Edun, Chief Executive Officer FCMB, said its partnership with the Development Bank of Nigeria empowers SMEs to scale up and contribute significantly to Nigeria’s economic development earning it the award of Deposit Money Bank with the highest impact in the DBN focus states.

“We are honoured to be recognised as the Deposit Money Bank with the Highest Impact in the DBN Focus States and the Participating Financial Institution with the Highest Disbursement to Green Projects. These awards affirm our commitment to meeting the expectations of our customers and the broader business community,” Edun said.

According to Edun, FCMB’s target is to train over 1 million SMEs through Technical Assistance worth €325,000 granted by Proparco (the private-sector arm of the French Development Agency) and another $275,000 from the African Development Bank (AfDB).

The bank’s leveraging of digital channels and artificial intelligence has streamlined its lending processes, resulting in substantial loan disbursements and enhanced customer experiences.

Ladi Balogun, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the holding company said: “We continue to leverage our unique Group structure to build a technology-driven ecosystem that fosters inclusive and sustainable growth in the communities we serve.

“This strategy enables us to deliver robust performance despite the challenging domestic and global environment. Barring unforeseen circumstances, we believe this trend will be sustained and accompanied by improving efficiencies arising from greater scale and ongoing digitization,” Balogun said.

The bank has invested significantly in various areas such as agriculture, renewable energy, and female entrepreneurship. Its intervention in food security has contributed to a 34 percent increase in lending to the agricultural sector amounting to N177 billion.

Over N16 billion in loans have been provided at a single-digit interest rate through the Babban Gona Franchise model, Psaltry, Tomato Jos, NOMA, Plantation Industries, and Mastercard Foundation covering over 10,000 hectares.

Last year alone, over N20 billion worth of loans were disbursed to women-owned SMEs through its SheVentures platform – a zero-interest loan facility option that provides short-term loans to women entrepreneurs. Another 4,200 women entrepreneurs were provided much-needed seed funds and 4-week interactive training sessions and mentorship sessions.

Its investment in education has seen scholarships for 5,000 children through its partnership with the Bethesda Child Support Agency (BCSA) by giving scholarships to less privileged children.

[Businessday]

Stakeholders and groups have called for tougher measures to contain the massive oil theft in Nigeria, not only to eradicate the scourge but to bring perpetrators to justice.

Nigeria has consistently blamed massive oil theft, declining investment, and outright sabotage for its inability to meet 1.5 million barrels a day bpd OPEC quota.

This is as Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) in the country have explained why oil bunkering and oil theft persist in Nigeria, attributing it to corruption and the activities of state actors.

According to the CSOs, no country in the world is unserious about protecting its assets, but that Nigeria’s situation is different because powerful people in the government are involved.

It is well known that oil theft is shrinking Nigeria’s revenues terribly and the government has been urged to do something urgent about it.

Oil theft continues to thrive in Nigeria’s Niger Delta with allegations of community involvement, ranging from state actors, traditional rulers, youths and community leaders.

A survey of oil production for March carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights found that Nigeria’s crude oil production declined marginally to 1.45 million barrels per day from the 1.47 million bpd the previous month.

Although output has generally increased this year, Nigeria’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production figures have been largely inconsistent.

Nigeria blames massive oil theft, declining investment in the oil and gas sector, and outright sabotage, among others, as reasons for its inability to meet its current revised 1.5 million bpd output, from 1.8 million bpd in 2023.

According to the S&P survey, the fall from 1.47 million bpd to 1.45 million bpd represented about a 0.02 percent decline.

But in all, OPEC+ crude output in March was up slightly month on month, as several producers continued to exceed their quotas, the Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights hinted.

Overall, the group produced 41.25 million bpd of crude in March, up 40,000 bpd on February levels despite efforts made by Saudi Arabia to enforce compliance.

This included an 80,000-bpd increase in OPEC production to 26.66 million bpd, offset by a drop in output by its allies of 40,000 bpd. March was the third month of the group’s latest voluntary production cuts, which were supposed to take approximately 700,000 bpd off the market in the first quarter of 2024.

At the moment, some civil society groups will be launching a global campaign towards addressing sabotage in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

Speaking to our Correspondent, Mr Taiwo Adeleye, Mallam Lateef Abdulazeez and  Fredrick Ojauka, in different conversations highlighted the need to deploy new technology to monitor oil fields and pipelines.

“We commend the Nigerian Navy for remarkable efforts to deal with oil theft and the determination to root out illegal refineries which have serious implications on domestic and corporation utility of petroleum products. Military troops deactivated 68 illegal refining sites in Niger Delta,” the coalition said.

The groups said they were impressed by the Navy that recovered 234,000 litres of stolen crude oil. Nigeria remains largely dependent on oil but exploration must take into consideration humanity in the context of environmental and livelihood security.

Adeleye on his part said, “We are however concerned about the future of oil, livelihood, and human security in Nigeria. What will Nigeria look like in the next 15 or 20 years? What immediate, short-term and long-term strategy do we have for oil security and national security? Will Nigerian oil installations continued to be protected by non-state actors? What is the mission of the state actors currently charged with the responsibility of protecting oil assets?”

Speaking on the immediate and remote causes of oil theft and pipeline vandalisation, the group chief executive officer (GCEO), Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL), Mele Kyari, posited that most stakeholders were of the view that oil theft was essentially a social problem whose underlying causes include poverty in the communities, community-industry expectation mismatch and corruption.

Others, he noted, include: ineffective law enforcement, poor governance, poor prosecution of offenders, high unemployment in the communities, thriving illegal oil market involving both Nigerians and foreigners, and inadequate funding of resources to combat oil theft.

He lamented that NNPCL, as an operator, had suffered severe attacks on its facilities and assets, noting that between 2001 and half year 2019, NNPCL recorded a total of 45,347 pipeline breaks on its downstream pipeline network across the country.

Kyari said that for the Nigerian economy to prosper, NNPCL and other oil companies must be able to operate efficiently and profitably.

“Unfortunately, the combination of crude oil theft, illegal refining, and pipeline vandalism has become a major threat to Nigeria in meeting its revenue projections in recent times,” he said.

In his presentation, Edo State governor and chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC) Ad Hoc Committee on Crude Oil Theft, Prevention and Control, Godwin Obaseki, stressed the need to institute a proper governance structure for pipeline security in the industry.

Obaseki called on the Nigeria Intelligence Agency (NIA) to work with the NNPCL in identifying possible international markets and destinations of stolen Nigerian crude oil.

He said that the industry must end the prevailing incentives that make it possible for crude oil theft and pipeline vandalisation to flourish.

The governor disclosed that NEC had upgraded the Ad Hoc Committee on Crude Theft to a standing committee with the mandate to provide regular updates to NEC as may be required.

In March this year, Kyari said in one year it recorded 9000 infractions on its pipelines.

Kyari said this when the House of Representatives Special Committee on Oil Theft went on an oversight function at the headquarters of NNPC Ltd in Abuja.

“From 2022 to date, we have deactivated 6,465 illegal refineries. We have also removed 4,876 illegal connections to a pipeline out of 5,570 that we have discovered,” he said, adding that the NNPC was not sure if that was the actual number, and that it still had about a thousand that the corporation knew had not yet been removed.

“Some of the scale of the infraction that we see is unbelievable; we are not able to deal with it. When you remove one connection, the next day in the same location, someone will replace it.

“It is obvious that crude oil theft is almost an end-to-end issue in Nigeria; it is very obvious that everyone is involved.

“In most of these locations, they are less than a hundred metres from human settlements; some are even less than a hundred metres from the local government headquarters,” he said.

He said that notwithstanding the distance, these evils are being perpetrated unabated, adding that this makes it impossible to guarantee the production that would happen the next day.

Kyari stated that the NNPC moved to curtail the menace posed by pipeline vandals by incorporating all security agencies into a single platform, including private security outfits.

LEADERSHIP recalls that the NNPCL had appealed to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to help tackle the menace of crude oil theft in the country.

Kyari made the appeal at an interactive session with the EFCC’s helmsman, Mr. Ola Olukoyede, which held at the NNPCL towers, Abuja.

Speaking passionately about the efforts by NNPC Ltd to eradicate corruption from its system and stem crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, Kyari contended that going by the volume of oil stolen daily and the brazenness with which the perpetrators operate, crude oil theft was the most humongous and virulent economic crime in Nigeria that must attract the attention of the EFCC.

EFCC executive chairman Ola Olukoyede expressed satisfaction with NNPC Ltd’s commitment to issues of ethics and code of conduct.

However, security operatives, lawyers, activists, environmentalists, and other stakeholders of the Niger Delta have revealed that the actual stealing of the nation’s crude oil occurs at the various export terminals and flow stations in the country and not in the refining camps in the creeks.

Analysts have said that Nigeria knows it still has much work to do in terms of tackling crude oil theft.

Speaking in the same vein, Olarenwaju Suraju, executive director of the Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA), said Nigeria can save over $200 billion yearly just by plugging all holes through which crude oil is stolen in the country.

Olarenwaju said the government needs to work with all stakeholders, from the media to security agencies, community-based organisations, and anti-graft groups, adding that funds recovered through stringent anti-corruption measures in the oil and gas sector would help pull the country back from economic doldrums.

“Nigeria is at a critical moment. People are passing through very difficult times. With a debt profile of over N77 trillion and an extremely poor debt service ratio, the country is in a quagmire,” he said.

“The surest way to recovery is to decisively fight corruption. Recovery of stolen funds and an end to graft in the oil sector will see Nigeria witness an upsurge in revenue to meet the needs of Nigerians who are at the end of the stick,” he said.

Only 16 Of Nigeria’s 36 Oil Terminals Metered

HEDA lamented that only 16 out of some 36 oil terminals in Nigeria are metered, making it difficult to monitor oil and gas production and distribution at local and international markets.

Also, human rights lawyer, Femi Falana, has drawn the attention of the Nigerian authorities to the fact that billions of dollars are lost to various rogue cartels in the oil and gas industry.

In countries like China the penalty for any form of economic sabotage against the state is death, but Nigerian CSOs said serious measures will not be taken against oil bunkering and oil theft because some state actors are involved.

The CSOs that spoke to LEADERSHIP are: The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), Transparency International (TI) and the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC).

Speaking through their leader, Awwal Musa Rafsanjani, they said it is a shame that oil bunkering appears to be negligence or compromise by state enforcement officers and that’s why it continues to happen.

“There is no country where you can see this level of unseriousness in tackling oil theft or oil bunkering. It’s all corruption and lack of responsible leaders.

“Some people in government appear to be benefitting; that’s why there is no decisive action despite the fact that Nigeria relies on oil revenue for survival.

“If you see other countries not up to the size of Nigeria, even in capacity or might, they don’t allow such to happen.

“It is a compromise to national security. The security forces have been given all the powers to stop oil bunkering, but it seems the responsibilities have not been carried out and we keep seeing occurrences on a daily basis without punishment. If they have been given responsibility to stop the act of looting in the name of oil bunkering, and nothing is done, their leaders should be sacked,” the CSOs said.

They, however, said the act seems to be state sponsored.

“So, oil bunkering, oil theft, or poor security in these areas are deliberate because they (state officials)  are heavily benefiting from the oil bunkering to the detriment of the majority of Nigerians,” Rafsanjani added.

[Leadership]

A former Minister of Aviation, Hadi Sirika, was yesterday arrested and taken into custody by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) over its ongoing probe on the botched Nigeria Air project, Daily Trust reports.

Apart from the project, Sirika was still being grilled at the time of filing this report last night over alleged conspiracy, abuse of office, diversion of public funds to the tune of N80.06bn, and contract inflation when he held sway at the aviation ministry, credible sources said.

Specifically, one of the sources said the former minister, who was being quizzed at the Federal Capital Territory Command of the anti-graft agency, was taken to the commission’s office at about 12:55 pm on Tuesday by some operatives of the agency.

“He was picked up at his Abuja residence by our operatives,” the official of the anti-graft agency said. 

The official who spoke in confidence because he wasn’t authorised to speak, said they quietly went to the residence of Sirika when they were least expected. 

Another source said, “Yes, he has been taken into custody and is meeting with our detectives to explain how some funds to the tune of N8, 069,176,864.00 were expended in his ministry when he was the minister.

“All necessary checks have been done before the invitation and he will be asked to explain the role he played in the (alleged) infractions.

“It is an ongoing thing, we will not relent,” the source said.

Our correspondent tried Sirika’s telephone but it was not going through as of the time of filing this report. 

Sirika, who served under former President Muhammadu Buhari, had also served as a member of the House of Representatives, and thereafter, as a senator representing Katsina North Senatorial District under the platform of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011. 

EFCC to invite sacked directors

In a related development, Daily Trust learnt that the EFCC is also planning to invite all the sacked directors who worked directly under the embattled minister in the aviation ministry. 

Sources said trouble started with the directors following several petitions submitted by stakeholders, especially some aviation unions and civil society organisations, calling for the probe of the sector after the failed national carrier imbroglio.

President Bola Tinubu had in December 2023 sacked the heads of Nigeria’s aviation agencies including the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau (NSIB), Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) and Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT).

Those sacked included Kabir Mohammed of FAAN; Tayib Odunowo of NAMA; Akinola Olateru of NSIB; Prof. Mansur Matazu of NiMet; and Alkali Modibbo, the Rector of NCAT while also suspending the Director-General of the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, Captain Musa Nuhu. 

An official of the anti-graft agency confirmed that letters of invitation to the sacked and suspended officials were already prepared to come over to explain their roles in the alleged different fraudulent activities that took place in the ministry under Sirika. 

Sirika’s younger brother’s account remains frozen 

Findings by this newspaper last night revealed that the EFCC was yet to lift restrictions placed on an account linked to the former minister’s younger brother, Abubakar Ahmad Sirika, which was allegedly used to launder money.

In February, the anti-graft agency froze an account belonging to Abubakar after he was arrested when about N3.2 billion was traced to his private company, Engirios Nigeria Limited.

According to EFCC’s detectives, Abubakar, who is also, a Level-16 officer and a deputy director in the Federal Ministry of Water Resources, was listed as the company’s MD/CEO and the sole signatory to the two accounts linked to the firm with two banks.

The detectives had said the four contracts the ex-minister awarded to his brother which were not executed are the construction of the Terminal Building in Katsina Airport (N1.3 billion) and the Fire Truck Maintenance and Refurbishment Centre in Katsina Airport (N3.8 billion). 

Other contracts were the procurement and installation of elevators, air conditioners, and power generator houses in Aviation House, Abuja (N615 million) and the procurement of Magnus Aircraft and simulator for Nigerian College of Aviation Technology, Zaria (N2.3 billion).

Investigators revealed a payment of N3.2 billion out of the total contract sum to Engirios Nigeria Limited. Upon receipt of the payment, he allegedly transferred it to different companies and individuals.

The investigators also alleged that no trace of work had been done on any of the contract items to date.

Even though Abubakar could not also be reached last night for comment, an insider said the Sirika family had resolved not to discuss the matter in the media.

[DailyTrust]

Former Super Eagles goalkeeper, Vincent Enyeama, has said he did not apply to be the team’s next head coach because of two reasons.

Since Jose Peseiro’s contract elapsed, several former Nigerian players have been linked with the job.

Enyeama has admitted he would have also applied if he had secured his coaching certificate and wasn’t focused on his hotel business.

He told Afrik-Foot: “For you to be able to coach the Super Eagles, you must be certified. That’s the minimum standard.

“That’s the number one reason, and then for the fact that I have been very busy developing and managing my hotel has taken a lot of my attention, and that business is the most important thing for me now.”

[DailyPost]

Two more aspirants in last Saturday’s governorship primary of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ondo State have filed petitions at the party’s Primary Appeal Committee, headed by former Bauchi State Governor Abdullahi Abubakar.

Senator Jimoh Ibrahim and Folakemi Omogoroye filed their petitions against the announcement of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa as the winner of the primary.

Previous aspirants who had filed appeals are Wale Akinterinwa, Jimi Odimayo, and Olugbenga Edema.

In their petitions, Ibrahim and Omogoroye claimed that the governorship primary was marred with irregularities and fell short of appreciable standard.

They called for the cancellation of the primary and conduct of a fresh primary.

Omogoroye said: “I am urging you to cancel the election and order a fresh election in which all the laid down guidelines for a credible election will be followed and a level-playing field will be assured and ensured for all players in the election.

“Anything short of this is an open endorsement of the robbery of Saturday by the leadership of our party.”

The Indian High Commission in Nigeria has vowed to sanction the workers at the Indian Language School, Ilupeju, Lagos who refused The PUNCH correspondent access to the school facility for inquiries.

Following online reports that the school was not admitting or welcoming Nigerians on its premises, our correspondent on Monday proceeded to the school to investigate the claims.

While reacting to a post by @DejiAdesogan on Sunday, bordering on discrimination against Nigerians at an Abuja-based Chinese store, an X user @decommonroom, shared his experience about the Lagos Indian school.

He wrote, “The Indian school in Ilupeju only admits Indians. You need an Indian passport for enrollment.” 

In a further chat with our correspondent, the user said, “My experience with the Indian international school in Ilupeju dates back to when my school had a debate competition with them in 2009. I discovered there were only Indian students. I was curious as to why because my school was also an international school and run by a foreign embassy with primarily expatriate kids and few Nigerians. Then I was informed their passport was a prerequisite for admission.”

When our correspondent visited the school on Monday, he was denied entry by security officials who claimed to be acting on instructions of a receptionist.

When our correspondent asked to make inquiries for his uncle who had two kids and would like to enroll them in the school, one of the security men asked, “But that your uncle is an Indian man?”

“They said as a Nigerian, they (the management) cannot attend to you. So the person should come, the Indian person,” another security man added, saying that was the response of an unidentified administrative worker, said to be an Indian.

Responding to inquiries from our correspondent on Tuesday, the press officer of the Indian High Commission in Abuja, Vipul Mesariya, said the commission was shocked by the experience of our reporter.

Vipul said, “We are shocked to hear that you were not allowed inside the school. We are disciplining the security guard and the receptionist as they did not have the authority to make such a decision.”

On Tuesday, the owner of the Abuja-based Chinese supermarket criticised for barring Nigerians refuted claims that her store was only meant for a specific group of people.

She clarified that her establishment was not a supermarket but rather a retail shop aimed at meeting the essential needs of her local community.

The store owner, Liu Bei, in a statement, said, “My shop is in the Royal Choice Estate, Airport Road, Abuja. It’s a small retail shop, not a supermarket like SHOPRITE. I mainly sell things to community residents and people who work here. Sometimes some visitors will come to my store to buy something after visiting the company In the office building, regardless of nationality.

“I don’t discriminate against any Nigerians, I even have several local employees in my store and we have a good relationship. However, for safety reasons, the community has requirements for visitors, so not everyone can enter the community directly.

“I feel sorry for the altercation between the security guard and the visitor in the video. Two Nigerians did come to my store that day to buy something, and I sold to them.”

Her reaction followed a summons notice and threat of sanctions by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission on Monday after it sealed her store.

[Punch]

Professor of Human Rights and Gender  Law, Yinka Olomojobi was shot dead last week Friday by suspected kidnappers at Iperu Remo, Ogun state. Unaware that he would lose his life in the hands of kidnappers, the Babcock University lecturer in this interview, raised concerns on the dire security situation in the country and adviced that government must be firm and resolute in punishing kidnappers and terrorists to serve as deterrent to others. He also spoke on other issues. 

Excerpt: 

Your new book, “Armed Conflict, The convergence between International human rights law and international humanitarian law,” was launched in January. What was the inspiration behind the book?

I am a scholar and human rights lawyer. In my field, we have a number of books and scholarly articles on human rights but what has been missing are books on international and humanitarian laws. In the context of human rights, the international and humanitarian laws are  always left out because it’s still in a growing process. I teach it as a component of human rights but it is limited in its application to fighting wars, and using the elements from distinction proportionality, humanity and those other various elements.

So I decided to put it into a broader picture to let people understand that there is a distinction and convergence between international human rights laws and international humanitarian laws. There is usually a great confusion in the two areas.  The confusion is that scholars and lawyers look at them as separate. They believe that International laws can apply in times of war only and international humanitarian rights laws apply only in the absence of war at every other time.  

But my argument is that although they are distinct, they are not divergent. So the arguments is that once there is an infringement on the laws of war or how law should be conducted, then there is a violation of human rights.  

Do you think Nigeria is adhering to international laws in its fight against insurgency?

When you look at the fight against Boko Haram, it is what we call non International conflict. The reason is that Boko Haram has a command structure and in that regards, the laws of war must be strictly adhered to between Boko Haram fighters and the military. The military must observe the rules and conducts of war as well as Boko Haram terrorist fighters.   But usually there is complexity because how does the army identify who Boko Haram fighters are? How do they know those who are combatants?  It may be easy to identify soldiers as combatants but the issue is that Boko Haram terrorists are always targeting none combatants.  Obviously, they are not obeying the laws of war. In the case of the military, I would also posit that if non-combatant are target in the effort to fight back, then that would clearly be against international laws.

What do think of the FG’s consideration of amnesty for insurgents and terrorists?

On the issue of amnesty, it is very complex because there has been an infringement International humanitarian law and infringement of human rights laws. Once you have infringed on human rights law and the right to life has been taken away,  I don’t think they should be allowed to go.   There should be some punitive measure, otherwise, this may open the door for other insurgents to carry up arms at the end of the day knowing  that there is a gateway to some amnesty. 

So what should happen is that everything should be in accordance with the law. They should be tried for breach of international humanitarian laws and for violation of human rights. They should go hand in hand.  Same should also apply to other crimes such as kidnapping and corruption which is also becoming a major problem in the country. When people are properly punished for crimes they committed, I believe it will serve as serious deterrent to others. 

Do you think Nigeria is winning the war against terrorism and kidnapping?

Once there is a strong division between the privileged and the less-privileged in any country, it’s a pacesetter for terrorism and kidnapping to exist. Go to Somalia and Niger, they are one of the poorest countries in the world.  There are Muslims in Ghana,  yet they don’t have serious issues of kidnapping and terrorism because what they have is divided.  Even in Malawi, the resources are evenly divided. Terrorism and kidnapping is thriving because there is a strong division between ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. So irrespective of what the government is doing, until there is equal opportunity and level playing ground for everyone, the problem will remain. What happens is that once you give everyone equal economic opportunities,  terrorist and kidnapping ideologies will wither away.

The UN humanitarian assembly recently urged the FG to implement #EndSARS report. What are the real implications of not implementing such critical reports?

There are serious implications because if the report comes out and it does indict the leadership of the country, then there will be problem.   Recall what happened in Kenya in 2007. It shows that human rights does exist at all times, it does not belong to a state.   It is part and parcel of international law. Since 1945, United Nations is there to ensure that all states observe human rights. When human rights are not observed in any state, it is violence against humanity. So my advice is that it is in interest of the country to ensure that recommendations made by the various EndSARS reports are fully implemented. 

How can your book help to resolve some of the burning crises in the country?

The major things that make conflict exist is due to poor economy,. I won’t blame it on issues of  colonization because we have countries like Malaysia, India and even China that were colonised by the British.  The question is, now that we have our own independence,  what has African leaders done for Africa? When you have a system of corruption,  there will be an endemic system of failure. That is why today in Nigeria,  we have the third weakest currency in Africa. The reality is that there is no honest person out there trying to deal with the issues at the federal level. There is no honesty at the top level.  In reality, we don’t operate the federal system of government.  I will  suggest in strong terms that we go back to regionalism. Regionalism is the only way forward. The federal government dishes out allocation and the local government  is there doing nothing.  With that kind of approach, the system will always failure.  It’s not about policies because the system just won’t work.

[Vanguard]

Nigeria faces insecurity challenges across all six geopolitical zones. This insecurity takes various forms, including insurgency, terrorism, communal clashes, banditry, kidnapping, and piracy, and is fuelled by deep-rooted socio-economic, ethnic, and religious tensions. The Northeast has been particularly affected by the insurgency led by Boko Haram and its offshoot, ISWAP, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis that has seen millions displaced and widespread destruction. The Northwest faces challenges with banditry and kidnapping, where armed groups attack rural communities, causing significant loss of lives and displacement. Whilst the North-Central zone, or Nigeria’s Middle Belt, has experienced farmer-herder clashes driven by land disputes and environmental degradation, resulting in casualties and increased inter-communal tensions. What is clear is that Northern Nigeria is faced with a multifaceted tapestry of insecurity issues, each interwoven with the thread of history yet starkly impactful in today’s socio-political climate.

Banditry: A Persistent Historical Scourge

Banditry in northern Nigeria has a deep historical foundation that extends well beyond the current crisis. Historically, banditry was not just a matter of criminality but deeply woven into the socio-economic and political fabric of the region. The British conquest of the Northern Protectorate in 1903 and the subsequent amalgamation with the Southern Protectorate in 1914 were partly motivated by the desire to curb armed banditry and enhance regional security.  This era was characterised by widespread banditry, including armed robbery and community plundering, which influenced the decision to amalgamate. Although economic motives often dominate discussions about this amalgamation, the need to improve security, especially in the largely ungoverned Muslim North, was a significant factor. Lord Lugard, the first Colonial Officer of the Protectorate, experienced numerous confrontations with armed bandits who used ambush tactics with devastating efficiency, underscoring the security challenges of the time. Lugard’s encounters in areas like Nupeland, Kano, and Borguland, where he was wounded by bandits, highlighted the region’s precarious security situation.  In 1911, bandits in the Zamfara region ambushed Kano traders, killing about 210 people and stealing goods worth £165,000.  Additionally, persistent harassment, intimidation, and raids on herdsmen and traders around Kwatarkwashi in 1911 caused significant economic damage to the province. The collaboration between Zamfara communities and bandits from both Nigerian and present-day French territories facilitated these crimes, turning the region into a criminal haven.

The colonial administration’s response, which included stationing armed policemen along strategic routes in Sokoto Province to ensure security and collect caravan tolls, represented an early attempt to manage rural banditry.  However, cross-border crimes continued in the post-colonial period, worsened by civil wars and insecurity in the wider West Africa region. The smuggling of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs) across porous borders has further perpetuated violence and banditry in both rural and urban areas. The prevalence of these weapons continues to pose significant security challenges, impacting the stability and development of the region.

The shift from historical banditry to the current crisis is marked by this growing availability of modern weaponry, the erosion of traditional social structures, and worsening economic hardships. Unlike historical banditry, which may have had elements of honour or community defence, contemporary banditry is characterised by greater violence and less discrimination in targeting victims. Today’s bandits are less likely to strictly adhere to ethnic or familial lines, though some groups may still invoke these connections.

The phenomenon of banditry in the northwest predates the intercommunal conflict of the early 2000s and 2010s. Cattle rustling, a long-standing form of banditry in Northern Nigeria, involved nomadic and semi-nomadic groups engaging in livestock theft that was orchestrated by organised families or clans that passed down raiding techniques and routes through generations. Nonetheless, the ranks of bandits swelled significantly in the 2010s, partially as a result of increased ethnic tensions between Hausa and Fulani communities. Bandits exploited the grievances of herders, recruiting those who felt compelled to protect their lives, lands, and herds. Cattle rustlers like Buharin Daji and Kundu, for instance, conducted recruiting exercises in 2011 and 2012, and were successful in enticing young, predominantly Fulani men, with promises of cash, cows, and women. Alongside recruitment a number were simply coerced into joining their ranks.

Other Fulani individuals took up arms to defend themselves but came to view criminal activity as the best or only means of financing this self-defence. A group of four closely aligned bandit commanders in Zamfara claimed they resorted to cattle rustling in 2011 to acquire weapons for self-defense following attacks on their communities by local vigilantes’ group, known as Yan Sa-kai.  They justified their actions as a necessity, though others pursued banditry purely for profit. Some repentant bandits have admitted to joining bandit groups to reclaim rustled cattle, while others have expressed dismay over unnecessary killings of both Fulani and their cattle. These concerns are exacerbated by the worsening impact of ethnic profiling and vigilante justice. The distinction between economic necessity—”I must rustle some cattle to buy guns to defend my people from Yan Sa-kai”—and economic opportunism—”The more cattle I rustle, the more guns I can buy, becoming more powerful and wealthy”—is subtle. Many herders who initially took up arms for self-defence have since become hardened criminals.

The conflict in the north remains dynamic and mobile. The base of operations for bandits in the northwest can shift rapidly. Additionally, gangs often collaborate with other bandit groups to conduct attacks far from their camps, driven by both opportunity and necessity. For instance, bandit Dogo Gide, usually based in the Birnin Gwari forest straddling Kaduna and Niger states, targeted distant Birnin Yauri in Kebbi state for a mass kidnapping in July 2021, as many schools closer to his camps had closed due to banditry. Bandits typically move on motorcycles but also utilize waterways, especially during the rainy season, to transport themselves and their weapons via canoe.

Zamfara stands as the epicentre of banditry, albeit local government areas (LGAs) within Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger, and Kaduna that border Zamfara are also severely affected. For example, Sabon Birni, Isa, and Rabah, Goronyo in eastern Sokoto, bordering Zamfara’s Shinkafi LGA, have been among the hardest hit. In the Birnin Gwari region in western Kaduna high levels of violence are linked to its forest networks extending into Zamfara.

Banditry is also evolving, with groups have expanded their operations to include kidnapping for ransom, a highly profitable tactic that fuels their activities. In a significant strategic shift, the abduction of school children has become a favoured method for bandits, notably highlighted by the audacious kidnapping of the Kankara schoolboys by Auwalu Daudawa in Katsina state in December 2020. Since these incidents, the kidnapping of school children has become a potent weapon, with the most recent being the kidnapping in Kuriga, Kaduna state in March 2024.

Estimates suggest there are over 300 bandit warlords, each commanding at least 50 fighters operational across different regions of Northern Nigeria. Like in the pre-colonial era, kinship and community ties continue to play significant roles in banditry, with bandit groups often operating within defined ethnic or kinship lines, forming bandit families or clans. These groups rely on extensive networks of informants, safe houses, and community support to evade authorities or rival factions. The loyalty within these families and the code of silence among community members have made it challenging for authorities to effectively combat banditry.

The importance of a bandit leader extends beyond mere strength and the size of their forces or weaponry; it also hinges on the prowess of their affiliated musicians and the popularity of their songs.  Most bandit kingpins, locally known as “Kachalla,” boasts special songs attributed to them, contributing to their myth and aura. Hausa speaking Nigerians in their 40s and above will undoubtedly be familiar with the songs of Kassu Zurmi, Gambu and other musicians who served as praise singers to bandit families and noted kingpins in  the past. Today, this trend has continued with the emergence of a new breed of bandit-musicians, including figures like the late Surajo, Adamu Ayuba, Hammadu, Makaho, Mal. Jika, and Maigari -the latter three all hail from Dunburum in the Zurmi LGA of Zamfara state. These bandit-musicians play a pivotal role in the banditry ecosystem, with their songs serving as a measure of a bandit kingpin’s power and influence

The menace of banditry, while historically entrenched in the socio-economic fabric of Northern Nigeria, has undergone a significant transformation. Previously confined to local skirmishes and cattle rustling, modern-day banditry in the region has escalated into a lucrative and deadly operation. This involves kidnapping for ransom and large-scale violence that destabilises entire communities. This evolution reflects broader socio-economic despair and a governance vacuum, realities that have allowed bandits to grow their tactics and access the sophisticated weaponry. To this end addressing banditry today requires not only a security response but also an understanding and addressing of its deep-rooted causes.

Islamist Insurgency: A Transformative Force

The Islamist insurgency in Northern Nigeria, spearheaded by groups like Boko Haram and its offshoots including ISWAP has dramatically reshaped the region.  Founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf, Boko Haram initially targeted Western education and aimed to implement Sharia law, seeking to establish an Islamic state in Nigeria. But following Yusuf’s death in 2009, under Abubakar Shekau’s leadership, Boko Haram escalated its campaign, launching widespread attacks against the government, security forces, and civilians.

Ansaru, which emerged from Boko Haram in 2012, and ISWAP, which formed in 2016 and pledged allegiance to ISIS, represent significant fractures of the original movement. These groups have not only perpetuated the conflict but also broadened its scope from the Northeast across to the Northwest and North-Central zones of Nigeria, intertwining with local banditry and exploiting community grievances. This complex web of insurgent activity, coupled with efforts to embed within local populations and even collaborate with bandits, has fuelled a devastating humanitarian crisis marked by mass displacement and severe socio-economic disruption. The Boko Haram insurgency has directly and indirectly caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Nigerians and the displacement of millions, significantly hindering socio-economic development and altering the security, socio-economic, and geopolitical fabric of the region.

The growth of interactions with the other insecurity challenges across Northern Nigeria is a concerning trend. In the northwest, a region already troubled by bandit groups, there is an emerging cooperation between these bandits and terrorist groups, often involving financial exchanges, in states such as Zamfara, Niger and Katsina. This collaboration, particularly around the sharing of resources but also around local terrain knowledge, poses a risk of escalating the current insecurity. For instance, the train attack in Kaduna in March 2022 was a joint operation between a Boko Haram faction and the late Ali Kawaje, a prominent bandit warlord. But Boko Haram factions are not alone in this approach. Ansaru and ISWAP’s strategies have also included providing support against bandits in exchange for community allegiance and operating in strategic locations like Dandume, Birni Gwari and the Shiroro axis. This multifaceted insurgency landscape, marked by potential for both cooperation and infighting among groups, not only has immediate impacts for residents, but significantly complicates efforts to address insecurity in Northern Nigeria.

Herder-Farmer Conflicts: Deepening Divides

The age-old conflict over scarce resources between nomadic herders and settled farmers has intensified in North-Central states such as Kaduna, Benue, and Nasarawa, exacerbated by climate change, population growth, and land degradation. These clashes are no longer mere resource disputes but are increasingly interpreted through lenses of ethnicity and religion, adding layers of complexity to an already volatile situation. In this way the conflicts in the North-Central states of Nigeria are emblematic of a broader crisis facing the country, where environmental, economic, and societal pressures converge to fuel violence.

Historically, the relationship between nomadic herders and settled farmers was symbiotic. Herders’ cattle would graze on leftover crops from farmers’ fields, providing manure for the next planting season. But the historical migration patterns and pastoral livelihoods are now in direct conflict with modern agricultural practices and land use policies, leading to recurrent violence and community ruptures. Furthermore, this relationship has been strained by climate change, population growth, and land degradation, which have led to a reduction in available grazing land and water resources. These environmental stressors have pushed herders to migrate further south into more fertile farming lands, leading to conflicts with local farmers.

Often referred to as Nigeria’s “food basket,” Benue has been at the epicentre of herder-farmer clashes. The state government’s attempt to mitigate these clashes through legislation – the anti-open grazing law – has led to further polarisation with herders viewing such policies as existential threats to their way of life. In Kaduna state, the conflict has seen an alarming rise in violence, with numerous attacks attributed to armed herdsmen against farming communities. The situation is further complicated by the state’s diverse ethnic and religious makeup, turning disputes over land into sectarian violence, with devastating effects on community cohesion and security.

Herder-farmer conflicts are increasingly framed in ethnic and religious terms, with herders mostly being Fulani Muslims and farmers belonging to various ethnic groups and predominantly Christian. This framing has escalated the conflicts, making them harder to resolve as they now encompass identity and existential concerns. Northern Nigeria’s rich tapestry of religious and ethnic diversity has long been both a source of cultural wealth and a catalyst for tension. But in recent years, religious divides have intensified, frequently exacerbated by political actors, leading to violent outbreaks. The indigene-settler divide, a contest over rights and privileges anchored in historical land and identity claims, has the potential to stir social and political unrest.

Rooted in colonial legacy, the distinction between “indigenes” – those considered native to a particular locality – and “settlers” – people who, despite having lived in the area for generations, are regarded as outsiders – fuels disputes over access to land, resources, and political representation. This dynamic has led to repeated and deadly clashes, in places like Plateau state, between indigene farmers and settler herders over land.

Although the high-profile religious riots that characterised the last three decades in Northern Nigeria have decreased, emerging patterns of violence represent a new frontier of religious tension. These incidents underscore the volatile nature of religious sentiments and the potential for conflict. Linked to this, the proliferation of media platforms allows individuals to broadcast messages without oversight, contributing to a climate of intolerance and misunderstanding. This issue highlights a broader challenge within the Nigerian religious landscape, where inflammatory rhetoric can circulate freely, heightening tensions and sometimes leading to violence.

Understanding the Drivers: A Multifaceted Analysis

Factors driving insecurity include:

•             Land Use Disputes: The escalation of farmer-herder conflicts to unprecedented levels in recent years is partly due to conflicting land tenure systems. Traditional land distribution methods clash with formal government-granted rights, leading to widespread disputes.

•Changing Livelihoods and Climate Change: Diminishing arable land and water resources, exacerbated by inefficient farming practices, desertification, and erratic rainfall, force herders’ southwards, sparking conflicts with farmers over dwindling resources.

•Reciprocal Radicalisation: The stigmatisation of Fulani herders contributes to a cycle of violence, where negative perceptions between farmers and herders in different regions reinforce a spiral of escalating conflict.

•Security Sector Challenges: Inadequate security force capacity and professionalism, marked by under-resourcing and excessive force, undermine efforts to combat insecurity. The military and police, stretched thin and sometimes outgunned, often resort to heavy-handed tactics, exacerbating tensions.

•Access to Arms: Despite laws against unauthorized arms possession, the circulation of SALWs is rampant, with Nigeria accounting for a significant proportion of all SALWs in West Africa.

•Corruption and Injustice: Perceived injustices and corruption, filtered through ethnic, religious, or regional biases, fuel inter-communal conflict and insurgency, pushing communities toward extra-legal measures for self-protection.

•Regional overspill: Nigeria’s proximity to fragile states and the existence of numerous unofficial border crossings facilitates the movement of insurgent groups and bandits, compounding security challenges.

These multifaceted insecurity issues confronting Northern Nigeria are intricately linked to the region’s low Human Development Index (HDI) scores, which encapsulate vital dimensions like education, health, and economic opportunities. This connection underscores a cyclic relationship where underdevelopment fuels violence, and vice versa, emphasising the intricate nature of the challenges faced.

The educational disparities between Northern and Southern Nigeria play a significant role in the dynamics of radicalisation in the region. Lower literacy rates and school enrolment figures in the North, as reported by UNICEF and the World Bank, highlight a crucial challenge in access to and the quality of education. For instance, adult literacy rates as low as 40% in certain Northern states starkly contrast with rates above 80% in many Southern states.  Similarly, net primary school enrolment rates in the South approach 80-90%, while in the North, they can dip as low as 50-60%.  The Northwest region has three of the four states with the lowest literacy rates in the country.  Conflict is reinforcing these educational divides as one million Nigerian children are estimated to be out of school due to insecurity in the northwest alone.  Such disparities are further exacerbated by gender, with many girls in the North not attending school due to various socio-economic and cultural barriers.

This educational gap not only restricts economic opportunities but also heightens susceptibility to extremist ideologies. Groups like Boko Haram, have effectively exploited these vulnerabilities by offering alternative narratives that promise belonging, purpose, and sometimes financial benefits. Their ideology fundamentally opposes Western-style education, drawing on the educational inequities to fuel their narrative and recruit followers. Addressing these educational disparities is critical in countering radicalisation and fostering a more stable and prosperous environment in Northern Nigeria.

Limited access to healthcare and the resultant population discontent in Northern Nigeria are closely linked to the region’s overarching instability. Similar disparities are observed in health outcomes as highlighted by UN data and reports from the World Health Organization and UNICEF. Life expectancy in the North lags significantly behind the South, with figures as low as 50 years compared to the South’s average of around 60 years.  This divide is further deepened by child and maternal mortality rates in the North, which are nearly double those observed in the South. The scarcity of medical professionals exacerbates these health challenges. According to a report by The ICIR, Nigeria has an average of about four doctors per 10,000 people, a figure that, despite being the highest in two decades, falls short of the WHO’s recommended ratio of one physician for every 600 persons. 

Finally, stark economic disparities between Northern and Southern Nigeria manifest in various forms, including GDP per capita, income levels, and employment opportunities, creating a fertile ground for the recruitment into violence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Northwest Nigeria contains some of the poorest states in the country. As of 2019, each northwestern state has a higher poverty rate than the national average of 40.1%, with Sokoto having the highest rate in the country: 87.73% of the state’s population live in poverty.  Its reports also illustrate that unemployment rates in the Northern regions can exceed 20%, a stark contrast to the more industrially diverse and economically vibrant Southern regions, where unemployment rates hover around 10-15%.

The scarcity of livelihood opportunities becomes a pivotal factor driving individuals, especially the youth, towards armed groups and criminal networks. These groups exploit the economic vulnerabilities by offering financial incentives, making economic desperation a potent catalyst for individuals to join their ranks. A possibility that is aided by the availability of arms in the region, with gunrunning having evolved into a significant business operation.

The illegal arms market in Northern Nigeria has seen a marked increase in demand and supply. The economic incentives are significant, with prices for firearms and ammunition varying widely based on type according to sources. For instance, the cost of a single bullet can range from N2,000 to N5,000, while high-calibre weapons such as AK47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenades are traded for anywhere from N1.5 million to N5 million. This price variability has catalysed a geometric rise in individuals participating in the arms trade, particularly in the Northwest, which is home to rampant criminality.

Traffickers have developed sophisticated networks to transport illegal arms into and across Nigeria, deploying innovative methods to circumvent security checks. Concealment tactics range from hiding weapons within vehicles’ compartments, to using animals or canoes for border crossings, to disguising arms amidst legitimate cargo, such as agricultural products, to avoid detection.

The proliferation of illegal firearms not only fuels the ongoing insecurity but also complicates efforts to restore peace and order. This issue is further complicated by corrupt elements within society and the international scope of these trafficking networks. As Northern Nigeria grapples with this escalating crisis, a multifaceted approach that includes tighter security measures, regional cooperation, and addressing the root causes of demand for illegal arms is imperative.

Confronting the Challenges

The administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in its Renewed Hope Agenda, provided a holistic framework that seeks to comprehensively address various aspects of insecurity. This agenda includes provisions for bolstering security forces, implementing community-based security initiatives, promoting socio-economic development, and fostering inter-communal dialogue to address grievances and foster reconciliation. Through the Renewed Hope Agenda, the government aims to tackle the underlying causes of insecurity by addressing issues such as poverty, unemployment, social marginalisation, and ethnic tensions. By implementing targeted interventions and reforms, the government seeks to create an environment conducive to peace and stability in Northern Nigeria.

President Tinubu was also deliberate in appointing northerners to top security positions, aiming to involve those with proximity to the issues in the crafting of solutions. The role I hold, of National Security Adviser, is a demanding job that requires dexterity, hard work, and consensus building across security and political structures. The figures we met in terms of both attacks and casualties when assuming office in May 2023 were deeply concerning. In 2022 alone Nigeria witnessed four major terrorism attacks: the attack on the Abuja-Kaduna train, an attack on the Guards Battalion in Abuja, the Kuje Prison attack, and another at a church in Owo, Ondo state. Meanwhile, many roads across the country, such as the Abuja-Kaduna, Zaria-Kano, and Lagos-Ibadan roads, were unsafe due to daylight operations by criminal elements.

Since the coming of this administration, we have not seen any organised terrorist attack. Roads hitherto unsafe for commuters, for instance the Abuja- Kaduna , Zaria-Kano are today secure for travellers at any time of the day. We are not out of the woods yet, but we have made serious progress in pushing down casualty figures and depriving miscreants access to weapons and free movement. Since assuming office, we have also successfully freed over a thousand individuals, many of whom were villagers held captive for as long as two to three years. We successfully secured the release of abducted students from the Federal University of Gusau and school children from Kuriga without paying ransom.

Our non-kinetic strategies and approach are driven by evidence. We have strengthened the administration of criminal justice by reopening trials of Boko Haram terrorism suspects detained in Kanji and other locations across the country and prosecutions are now underway in eight different courts. Concurrently, we have significantly reduced the proliferation of arms nationwide by blocking the flows and arresting gunrunners. With new appointments at the National Centre on Small Arms and Light Weapons (NCSALW), we are poised to launch even more robust initiatives.

On the kinetic front, the Nigerian military is conducting numerous operations targeting insurgent groups like Boko Haram and bandits operating in Northern Nigeria. Operations such as Operation Hadin Kai, Operation Safe Haven, Operation Whirl Stroke, Operation Hadarin Daji, and Operation Sahel Sanity have been launched to root out insurgents and criminals from their strongholds, dismantle their networks, and restore law and order in affected areas. The federal government has also established joint task forces comprising military, police, and other security agencies to coordinate efforts and enhance operational effectiveness in tackling insecurity. These task forces collaborate to conduct raids, patrols, and targeted operations aimed at disrupting the activities of insurgents and criminal elements. Nigeria has also bolstered border security measures, particularly along its porous borders with neighbouring countries, to prevent the infiltration of insurgents, weapons, and illicit goods. It has also prioritised intelligence gathering and sharing as a crucial component of its kinetic efforts to address insecurity in the region. Enhanced intelligence capabilities, include surveillance, reconnaissance, and information gathering, enable security forces to identify and neutralise threats more effectively. These efforts have been notably successful, with military personnel delivering the elimination of high-profile bandit leaders such as Ali Kawaje and Boderis,. They have also successfully disrupted existing cells of criminal terrorists, further securing the region and diminishing threats to public safety.

The Nigerian government is also focusing more on counterinsurgency strategies aimed at winning the hearts and minds of local populations. In doing so we can isolate insurgents from their support base and prevent the recruitment of new members. These strategies involve engaging with communities, providing humanitarian assistance, and promoting reconciliation and deradicalisation programmes. Infrastructure development, job creation programmes, improved education and healthcare services, and efforts to tackle poverty and inequality are also critical parts of this approach.

The emphasis on non-kinetic efforts alongside kinetic strategies marks a significant recognition that achieving peace in conflict zones extends beyond military might to include sustained and cooperative engagement across various sectors.  In line with this understanding, a pivotal meeting convened in March 2024 at the Office of the National Security Adviser in Abuja, saw the participation of 15 Northern Governors as well as service and intelligence chiefs. The agenda of this meeting was dedicated to formulating strategies to tackle the pressing security challenges in Northern Nigeria. A significant outcome of the discussions was the consensus on the necessity of transcending mere territorial dominance to also focus on winning the hearts and minds of the populace, thereby fostering a holistic approach to reinstating peace and stability in the region.

Central to these discussions was the acknowledgment of the critical role that grassroots and regional initiatives play in complementing government efforts. Among strategies highlighted were the reform of the Nigerian Police Force, enhancement of local policing capabilities, implementation of peacebuilding programmes, and promotion of dialogue and reconciliation fora. Additionally, educational campaigns designed to counter violent extremism are increasingly being recognised as pivotal components of the broader strategy to restore peace. These initiatives collectively represent a multidimensional approach aimed at addressing the underlying causes of conflict and building a foundation for long-term stability in Northern Nigeria.

Building on the analysis of current efforts and challenges, a roadmap for the future to ensure sustained progress in tackling insecurity in Northern Nigeria would include the following:

• A more integrated approach that combines military, political, and socio-economic strategies. This entails aligning security operations with efforts to address underlying grievances, such as poverty, unemployment, and marginalization.

• Enhancing cross-border cooperation to address transnational threats effectively and disrupt the flow of illicit arms and goods across borders.

• Investing in youth empowerment and education is essential to prevent radicalisation and mitigate the appeal of extremist ideologies. This includes providing access to quality education, vocational training, and economic opportunities for young people in Northern Nigeria.

• Strengthening the capacity of local institutions to govern effectively and address community grievances. This involves empowering traditional and religious leaders, local governments, and civil society organisations to play a more active role in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts.

• Promoting inclusive dialogue that involves all stakeholders, including marginalised communities, to foster a holistic and durable peace. This entails creating spaces for meaningful participation and representation of diverse voices in decision-making processes.

• Prioritising prevention and resilience-building measures can help mitigate the risk of future insecurity. This includes early warning systems, community policing initiatives, and programs to address the root causes of conflict and violence.

•Engaging regional neighbours to support efforts to secure and stabilise the region.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it is crucial to emphasise that the complex web of insecurity engulfing Northern Nigeria is influenced by a blend of socio-economic, ethnic, and religious factors. Insights from historical examinations of banditry, the rise and growing impact of Islamist insurgencies, and the deep-seated conflicts between herders and farmers illustrate how insecurity has been exacerbated by a troubling increase in arms trafficking. To effectively address these issues, a comprehensive and cohesive response is required. The ultimate solution to the problem, however, has to be multifaceted, one that marries military, political, and socio-economic strategies with robust cross-border cooperation and deep community engagement.

By championing an integrated strategy that equally prioritises prevention and the building of resilience, we hope to attain a pragmatic roadmap towards achieving stability and prosperity in Northern Nigeria. This comprehensive approach, aimed at mending the socio-political fabric of the region, sets a new precedent for addressing deep-seated security issues through collective determination, strategic action, and a commitment to inclusive governance.

•Above are excerpts from a Convocation Lecture delivered last Thursday   by the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, at the Usmanu Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto