THERE are several observations about the current conversation about an ESF:

One, there is an erroneous belief that if you have a Standing or Standby Force, they will be quickly and efficiently deployed in conflict situations. The truth is that every conflict is unique and will throw up specific forms of politics among members of the Standby Force or Standing Force.

For instance, would an ESF in which Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have soldiers be willing to be deplored to restore constitutional order in their countries after the military coups in those countries? Would an ESF be able to intervene in a conflict in Nigeria – especially given the size of the country, its ethnic and religious polarisation and the shared ethnic and religious bonds among some ethnic groups across different member states?

Two, a crucial question in any conversation about the ESF is who should be the mandating authority for any force deployment, especially in the context of the dynamics of global power play. While under the ASF framework, it was assumed that the Peace and Security Council of the AU should be the mandating authority; in most cases, this authorisation has come from the RECs and almost always must be with the acquiescence of the UN Security Council, which frowns at any intervention without its authorisation. 

For instance, though ECOWAS was the driving force behind the restoration of constitutional order in Mali in 2012 following a military coup and the subsequent Tuareg rebellion in the Northern part of the country, its request to the UN Security Council for authorisation of an African-led International Support Mission to Mali, AFISMA, and provision of voluntary and UN-funded logistics support packages (including equipment and services for an initial period of one year), was unnecessarily delayed. Yet the same UNSC, on April 25, 2013, authorized the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) under French leadership and asked AFISMA to be subsumed into it. 

Similarly, during the Libyan crisis of 2011, the AU’s several peace initiatives, including its unequivocal rejection of external military intervention in the country and development of a roadmap for peace which was accepted by Muammar Gaddafi and most of the actors in the conflict, was ignored, and in many cases undermined, by NATO members who appeared to harbour a vendetta against Muammar Gaddafi. In essence, if the UNSC, controlled by the five veto-wielding members of the Council, must authorise any intervention, then there is a considerable risk that the ESF will become just another tool in big-power politics. 

Three, any talk of ASF or ESF underestimates the force of the external ties pulling African countries in different directions. Regarding ECOWAS, the primary contradiction is between the Anglophone and the Francophone countries. For instance, the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group, ECOMOG, which was the closest to a standby force in the sub-region, was formed in 1990 mainly by Anglophone members of the group (essentially by Nigeria and Ghana with sub-battalion strength units from Guinea, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Liberia and others) to intervene in the civil war in Liberia because several Francophone ECOWAS members strongly opposed any troop deployment to the country. The leaders of Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire supported Charles Taylor in his attempt to depose Samuel Doe. Charles Taylor had accused Anglophone members of the ECOWAS of a gang-up against him, which led to Senegal sending 1,500 soldiers to his aid. 

Unfortunately for Taylor, after a major confrontation between his forces and the Senegalese soldiers in Vahun, Lofa, county on May 28, 1992, Senegal withdrew its forces, making it easier for ECOMOG to assert itself in the conflict. With the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the sub-regional body and suspicions in some quarters that Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has a close relationship with France (at a time anti-French sentiments are high in French-Speaking West African countries), it can be assumed that the contradictions between Anglophone and Francophone West Africa may have widened.

Four, why did the reputation built by ECOMOG from its interventions in the Liberian civil wars and its successful deployments to stop the RUF rebellion in Sierra Leone in 1997 and to end the Guinea Bissau Civil War in 1999, suddenly begin to atrophy? For instance, though ECOWAS planned to deploy 1,700 troops along the Guinea-Liberia border in 2001 to stop guerrilla infiltration by fighters opposed to the new post-1998 election government in Liberia, no force was ever deployed, ostensibly because of lack of funds. Similarly, in September 2003, ECOWAS launched the ECOWAS Mission in Liberia, ECOMIL, to end the Second Liberia Civil War with 3,563 troops from Nigeria, Mali, and Senegal, but this was quickly converted into United Nations Mission in Liberia, UNMIL, by the UNSC from October 1, 2003. Some attributed this to the unease by big powers about any regional intervention force they are not directly in control of and, of course, to the internal contradictions within the ECOWAS. 

Those pushing the new frenzy about ESF should carefully study the rise and fall of ECOMOG, which some have argued might have inspired the notion of ESF. Some Western commentators have unfairly attributed the early successes of ECOMOG to Western intelligence, technical, logistical, and financial support rather than to the fact that members had their booths on the grounds where they intervened.

Five, many of the current leaders of ECOWAS lack the requisite legitimacy and moral right to intervene in external conflicts because most are guilty of at least one of the three forms of coup-making in the continent – electoral coups, military coups, and tenure elongation. This undermines their moral authority to use force to restore constitutional order in any country, as happened when it tried to restore constitutional order following military coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

Six, there is also the question of who will pay for the ESF. Projecting power on the global scene is an expensive enterprise. And with Nigeria, the main financier of ECOWAS initiatives, in deep financial trouble, it is doubtful if the country still has the power of the purse to play the big brother role in the sub-region.  

Seven, there are also operational issues of who will lead the ESF. For instance, the first Commander of ECOMOG was a Ghanaian, Lieutenant General Arnold Quainoo, but he was succeeded by an unbroken line of Nigerian officers on the argument that Nigeria was the primary funder and driver of the initiative. But that also bred resentment and eventually weakened ECOMOG as a force.

Eight, what should be the way forward? The current configuration of global power and Nigeria’s declining influence do not favour the sort of standby force envisaged by the ECOWAS. Nigeria needs to get its act together, and if it is seen as succeeding, it will become easier for others in the sub-region to line up behind its leadership. For now, the emphasis should be on the sub-regional body using whatever moral authority it has to persuade parties in any conflict. One of its bargaining tools could be reminding warring parties that escalating their conflicts could inevitably result in extra-African interventions and that such has hardly done any country any good. Essentially, the ECOWAS has to expand the carrots in its diplomatic toolkits and show better sensitivity to both the internal and the external constraints to its room to manoeuvre.

Concluded

Ex-National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Prince Uche Secondus, has said 2027 may never come into our political lives because the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, has murdered and buried democracy.

Secondus said this in a statement signed by his Media Adviser, Ike Abonyi, in Abuja, on Tuesday.

The former PDP Chairman was reacting to the conduct and outcome of last Saturday’s Edo State gubernatorial election.

He said the election saw to it that every rule was turned upside down to deliver the APC candidate at all cost.

According to him, there was every indication that the ruling party is on a mission to “murder and bury democracy in Nigeria.”

The former PDP boss described what took place in Edo state last weekend, as electoral fraud exhibited without any regard for the rule of law and respect for the voters.

He argued that from the results of all the off-cycle elections conducted in Imo, Kogi, and Edo states, the Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu-led Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, is not showing any remorse for the sham of an election it conducted in 2023 which threw Nigeria under the bus.

Secondus further noted that with the “shameless boast” of the APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, that they will apply the Edo template in other forthcoming off-cycle elections in Ondo and Anambra states, it’s obvious that 2027 will not even come as the ruling party’s agenda is to create a one-party state by muzzling the opposition.

Secondus said, “The beauty of democracy is the opposing voices that help to check the ruling party but APC is set to ground Nigeria with their misrule yet won’t tolerate variance views.

“Nigeria’s democracy is sitting on the keg of gunpowder because of rigging. If the Edo Election stands it will be difficult to carry on elections in Nigeria going forward.”

He reiterated that the election manipulation in Edo state, was brazen and it started by harassing and arresting leaders of the opposition and compromising strategic players like security agencies and electoral officials.

“The world is watching the shame we bring to this beautiful form of government that other nations apply to stabilize and develop their countries.” He said.

[Vanguard]

Aliko Dangote, the founder of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, says this is the right time for the federal government to stop petrol subsidy.

Dangote spoke during an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday.

“I think it is the right time to (take away subsidy) because all countries have gotten rid of subsidy,” he said.

He said subsidy is a sensitive issue, adding that once a country subsidises the product, people would increase the price.

Dangote said it would lead to the government “paying what they are not supposed to be paying”.

DANGOTE TO TRACK PETROL SOLD LOCALLY

Dangote said the petrol sold locally by his refinery will be tracked to ensure the consumption rate is accounted for.

“But this refinery will bring quite a lot of issues out there. It would show the real consumption of Nigeria because nobody can tell. Some people say it is 60 million litres per day, some say it is less,” the billionaire said.

“But right now, by us producing, everything can be counted and accounted for. Most of the trucks or ships that will load from us, we will put a tracker on them to be sure they are going to take the oil within Nigeria and that can help the government to save a lot of money.

“For example, Saudis, the citizens believe that oil is our god-given gift and should not charge us for it. Government was selling it at a very low price. But today, as we speak, gasoline is about 40 percent cheaper in Nigeria than in Saudi Arabia, which I think does not make sense.”

‘FG CAN’T AFFORD SUBSIDY’

Dangote said petrol subsidy is not sustainable and the government cannot afford to keep subsidising.

“Our price of gasoline is about 60 percent the price of our neighbouring countrries and we have porous borders, so it is not sustainable. Government cannot afford the amount of subsidies we are paying,” he said.

Speaking further on the viability of petrol subsidy, Dangote said it is the government’s decision to either continue with or halt the payments.

“We have a choice of exporting when we produce and we sell locally. We are a private company and it is true we have to make a profit,” he said.

“We built something worth $20 billion, and definitely we have to make money.

“The removal of subsidy is totally dependent on the government, not on us.

“We cannot change the price but I think the government would have to give up something for something.”

Dangote said eventually, the subsidy would have to go.

On May 29, 2023, President Bola Tinubu said the petrol subsidy regime was over.

Almost three months later, TheCable reported that Tinubu was considering a “temporary subsidy” on petrol as crude oil prices and foreign exchange rates soared.

However, Ajuri Ngelale, former presidential spokesperson, said there was no reintroduction of subsidy.

Also, on January 3, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited denied the return of the petrol subsidy, saying it had been removed entirely.

However, on April 15, Nasir el-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna state, said the federal government is spending more on petrol subsidy than before.

TheCable also reported on August 19 that Tinubu approved a request by NNPC to utilise the 2023 final dividends due to the federation to pay for the petrol subsidy — but NNPC denied the existence of petrol subsidy, only to admit hours later that the federal government owes it N7.8 trillion for subsidising petrol.

Almost a month later, Tinubu said Nigeria’s daily consumption of petrol reduced to about 30 million litres after subsidy removal.

[TheCable]

The secretary-general of the United Nations, heads of states, esteemed representatives, ladies and gentlemen. Before I share the address from my principal, His Excellency Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I wish to offer a few reflections of my own.

I am not sure when I will next have the honour of addressing you in this capacity. It may be next year or in another two or six years. But I am confident that I will return. Until then, I heed what our African elders said: “When a man climbs an Iroko tree, he should harvest firewood while on top.”

I stand before you today as a representative of a new generation of African leaders. We are not the subdued leaders the world has dealt with since independence. We are proud men and women who did not give a hoot what happened during colonization. We did not live through what the West did to Patrice Lumumba in Congo. We only read it in our history books and internalized the lessons. We grew up hearing of Ronald Reagan’s bombs landing near Muammar Gaddafi’s bedroom. We marvelled at Reagan’s arrogance and internalized the lessons. You won’t catch us quoting Nelson Mandela. If you listen to us, you hear us espousing Winnie Mandela’s words and wisdom and the resilience of our forebears.

We are patient. Our patience masks our urgency. That is who we are. Gedi kanadiben tsannawa. Heaven resides at the bottom of patience.

I am Kanuri, a descendant of a proud and storied tradition. I am, by nature, a warrior. I am not from one of the ethnic groups out of Nigeria mesmerized by the long nose of the British. I know where we were before the British invaded and halted our development. We have not forgotten. Despite your years of miseducation, of adulteration of our history, we know deep inside us that the hippopotamus surpasses an elephant by one calabash of flesh and that an elephant surpasses a hippopotamus by one calabash of bones.

At the right time, we will restart our journey and, in a short while, wipe out a century of disruptions. Those of you worried about a bold and ambitious China better prepare for an informed and vengeful Africa that will emerge when this crop of old and tired leaders you see in this chamber today die off and leave the stage for us.

We are not going to toe the lines of our fathers and grandfathers. The era of sucking up to you all and licking your behind is all but over. When we take complete control, you will know new kids are on the block.

So, my advice is this: if I were you, I would abandon all the relics of the past. A new generation of Africans who know their worth, what is in the soil under their feet, the beauty of the culture bequeathed to them, and the power of the spirituality of their forefather have come of age.

We are not the apologetic type. We do not concoct excuses for our failures. We do not revere white or brown skins. We know where we come from and where we are going. We do not accept that any mission is impossible, and we do not entertain the idea that any goal is improbable. No force can stop us.

For those of you who may not know, the members of the Boko Haram insurgency group that you must have heard of in Nigeria are my people. The boys might have channelled their energy in the wrong direction, but with a minor adjustment, they will turn it around and astonish the world. We did it before. We will do it again. When we set out on a mission, we are undeterred by any force in the world. That is who we are.

It is not too early for you to start asking yourself, what will we change to live in peace and harmony with this emerging Africa? The platitudes about shared prosperity and equal partnership will not cut it anymore. Our immense talent, creativity, unquenchable resolve, and ambition will no longer let us swallow our phlegm. There is a small window for you all to make amends and make space for possible redemption. The choice is yours.

If you want peace, we will give you peace. If you want war, we will give you war. We won’t be bullied. Decades of exploitation of African resources at our expense must stop. Our famished populace deserves respect and dignity, and we will restore them. You won’t see us bring out a bagger’s hat anymore. In our hands, you will see streams of codes, quantum threads, nano-rings, and sweats of molecular clouds. Our soils have lithium, uranium, diatomite, diamond, gold, and kaolin. Our brains have the necessary neurons it needs to produce drones, nuclear weapons, and spacecraft. Nothing in your modular oblongata makes you superior in any shape or form. We are going to achieve those in my lifetime.

So buckle up. By now, we know you very well. You have been as cunning as a weasel. Your imaginary tropes aimed at humiliating us have lost their potency. You may not have noticed it, but nobody has a monopoly on evil. Begin to treat us with dignity and respect, or else we may not have any iota of interest in being merciful for decades of exploitation and dehumanization when we get to the top. That danger should keep you up at night. We will forget when fowls cut their teeth.

The cowrie shells we threw on the ground have assured us of the divine response. The daybreak will catch you all hyenas while you are on your way. Consider yourself warned. The world is my witness.

I now invite Nigeria’s permanent representative to the United Nations to come up here and read President Bola Tinubu’s speech to the United Nations.

Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo teaches Post-Colonial African History, Afrodiasporan Literature, and African Folktales at the School of Visual Arts in New York City. He is also the host of Dr. Damages Show. His books include “This American Life Sef” and “Children of a Retired God,” among others. His upcoming book is called “Why I’m Disappointed in Jesus.”

In 2021, Mrs. Maria Igbinedion, the 85-year-old mother of former Edo State governor Chief Lucky Igbinedion, was tragically murdered by her domestic worker, Dominion Okoro. The sorrow is deepened by the fact that her murder was driven by the desire to steal her jewelry and other cherished items, gifts from her children.

This shocking event sent ripples through Nigerian society, exposing the risks that domestic workers can pose to families. It emphasizes the need for thorough vetting and continuous monitoring of domestic staff, as well as addressing any issues in the employer-employee dynamic.

Before the tragic death of Mrs. Igbinedion, which left her family—her children Bright, Michael, and others—grieving the premature loss of their mother at the hands of a worker driven by greed and malice, similar cases of domestic workers murdering their employers had occurred in Nigeria.

In 2015, Nigerian businessman Oyibo Amachree was brutally murdered by his driver and domestic worker. In 2016, 78-year-old Chief Mrs. Olusola Olubunmi was killed by her domestic worker, and in 2018, Lagos businessman Mr. Tunde Sunmonu met the same fate.

One of the most horrifying recent cases was the murder of Dr. Aribemchukwu Ajumogobia, the daughter of Justice Rita Ofili-Ajumogobia. On July 31, 2024, Dr. Ajumogobia was found dead outside their Parkview, Lagos residence. Following an investigation, a 21-year-old housemaid, Abigail Peter, a 35-year-old driver, Olatunji Oluwasegun, and a 45-year-old security guard, Umaru Mamman, admitted to killing her. They revealed that they had gagged and stabbed her in the neck, intending to steal cash and valuables.

It is heartbreaking that the stolen items were likely of little value, yet a promising young doctor in her early thirties lost her life due to the greed of domestic workers who conspired to carry out such a heinous act.

The disturbing rise in violent crimes committed by domestic staff against their employers is not unique to Nigeria. In fact, a quick online search shows that such crimes are prevalent across the African continent and even on a global scale.

Here are a few examples of such murders in Africa: In 2019, a 79-year-old woman in South Africa was killed by her domestic worker. In 2018, a couple in Kenya was murdered by their domestic worker, and in Uganda in 2017, a 60-year-old woman faced a similar fate at the hands of her domestic worker.

Globally, this trend can be seen in other countries as well. In 2019, a 61-year-old woman in France was murdered by her domestic worker. In India, a 70-year-old woman was killed by her domestic worker in 2018. In the United States, a 65-year-old woman was murdered by her caregiver in 2019.

The question remains: what drives domestic workers to murder their employers? Several factors have been identified, including greed fueled by financial struggles, stress from work, mental health issues, personal grudges, and social and economic inequality. Other contributing factors include poor working conditions, mistreatment by employers, low wages, exploitation, and the absence of proper background checks for domestic workers.

Given these statistics and factors, the troubling trend of domestic workers killing or poisoning their employers, who are essentially their benefactors, is becoming a global problem. In Nigeria, it is quickly becoming a national crisis, nearing epidemic proportions. Recently, news broke about Ronke, the wife of David Edevbie, a former Delta State finance commissioner and 2023 gubernatorial candidate, narrowly escaping a deadly plot by her domestic staff, who had laced her breakfast with a sleep-inducing drug.

Thankfully, she locked herself in her section of their Parkview Estate, Ikoyi home before succumbing to the drug's effects. Had she not done so, she might have been another victim of domestic worker violence, which has been growing alarmingly. The timing of her escape is particularly chilling, as it occurred just one month after the tragic murder of Justice Ajumogobia’s daughter, also in Parkview Estate, Ikoyi, Lagos.

There are numerous similar incidents across the country that have garnered media attention, along with many others that have not. For example, in southwestern Nigeria, a maid bought rat poison with the intent to put it in a pot of soup, which could have been consumed by an entire family. The family might have all been killed if she hadn’t been caught before carrying out her deadly plan.

Considering the severity of these situations, it's clear that this disturbing trend has sparked serious concerns about household safety in Nigeria. This problem must be addressed urgently before it escalates into a full-blown crisis.

However, amid these grim stories of domestic workers turning against their employers, there are solutions to this growing threat. Some of the key remedies involve better communication, diligent background checks, and proper training. As Miyamoto Musashi wisely said:
"The purpose of today's training is to defeat yesterday's understanding."
To reduce and possibly prevent future occurrences of such crimes, experts recommend several steps for employers. These include conducting thorough background checks on domestic workers, fostering open and effective communication, and ensuring fair treatment of staff—especially since some domestic workers have faced abuse from their employers.

Additionally, employers must ensure that domestic workers receive fair compensation and are provided with humane working conditions. Training in conflict resolution should also be introduced, along with stronger security measures, such as restricting access to certain areas of the home. Such steps may have helped protect Mrs. Ronke Edevbie, as shown by her recent experience.

These measures could serve as vital models to address this crisis in Nigeria. As the saying goes, "nothing is new under the sun." From available records of similar crimes in other countries, it’s evident that the strategies mentioned earlier have been effective in places where domestic worker violence has been curbed. This has led to a noticeable reduction in such crimes.

For example, countries like the US, UK, and Singapore have stringent background check and verification processes before hiring domestic workers. In Nigeria, the absence of such measures is glaring, and the need for their introduction is urgent. This is further highlighted by the fact that the employee responsible for Dr. Ajumogobia’s murder was reportedly newly hired without a proper vetting process.

Currently, domestic worker providers in Nigeria operate informally and without regulation. There is a pressing need for regulated employment agencies to screen and train domestic workers before placing them in homes. In many advanced countries, regulated agencies ensure domestic workers are properly vetted, trained, and placed in appropriate households. The rise in these crimes in Nigeria may be due, in part, to the absence of such a system here, making it crucial to establish one without delay.

There was a time when child trafficking posed a major threat in Nigeria, leading to the creation of the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons (NAPTIP) to address and combat the issue. Similarly, it is now crucial for both the Executive and Legislative branches of government to take urgent action and create legislation to deal with the current crisis. In this context, countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Africa have introduced labor laws that protect domestic workers, including provisions for minimum wages, paid leave, and protection from abuse.

Recently, Nigeria approved a new minimum wage of N70,000, and Senate President Godswill Akpabio confirmed that it applies to domestic workers. However, clarification is needed from the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and relevant government bodies about the standing of domestic workers, as the current minimum wage legislation only applies to employers with more than 15 employees.

Given this, the proposed agency would focus on the training and support of domestic workers. Some countries already offer training for both employers and workers to foster healthy relationships, improve conflict resolution, and promote cultural understanding. In certain places, domestic workers also undergo psychological evaluations to identify any potential mental health concerns before being placed in homes.

Government support is not the only solution. Based on research, community-based initiatives and support groups can also help address the socio-economic challenges that domestic workers face, acting as a safety net. Religious institutions, like churches and mosques, have a vital role to play in this process. Additionally, law enforcement and the prosecution of domestic worker-related crimes must be strengthened to deter future violence against employers.

Several international examples demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches. For instance, the Philippines, which sends the highest number of domestic workers abroad and is one of the top three nations for foreign exchange remittances, has established the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA). This agency has significantly improved the management of domestic workers. Likewise, Singapore has a maid levy and mandatory training to regulate the sector, and in the United States, the National Domestic Workers Alliance (NDWA) ensures proper oversight and protection for domestic workers.

Domestic workers—whether they are security guards, housemaids, or drivers—play a critical role in society, especially when they work closely with our loved ones. It is essential that their activities are carefully monitored, just as other countries have done. This is the central argument of this discussion, and I hope it emphasizes the need for the Nigerian government to take responsibility and put in place safeguards to address this growing issue. While these concerns may seem minor, they can have significant and potentially devastating effects on society.

Some readers might question why I have chosen to focus on such a sensitive topic—one that evokes sadness and grief, and which some may prefer to forget. In essence, why revisit painful memories?
My response is that l share the pains of the families of the victims of domestic workers violence because it is something that is relatable.
In 2017, l suffered the tragedy of lossing my 18 years old adorable daughter , Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe who was on track to graduate as a lawyer from the university of Birmingham in England. Her sudden passage which was a result of a badly performed surgery for appendix in Gold Cross hospital, now Lagoon hospital on Bourdilon road, ikoyi,Lagos , had a profound effect on me and my family.
Since l did not want a similar tragedy to happen to other families owing to ignorance and not having anyone to advocate for potential victims as patients in hospitals, where some shady activities can happen in the theatre ,l shared my family’s sad experience in a book titled: “Beyond Loss And Grief. The Story of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe,a Survivor’s Manual for Coping With the Loss of a Child”.
It is a personal memoir which l believe helped to shine the light on the painful experience of grief. ln a chapter titled “United ln Grief” l listed prominent and ordinary Nigerians including the sitting president, serving and ex-governors and musicians as well as sports enthusiats who lost their young children under tragic circumstances as aimed to share in their grief.
It is my hope that l would achieve a similar goal with this media intervention aimed at gingering the authorities into taking actions to end the rising tide of domestic workers killing their employeres before another such avoidable tragedy befalls another family.

Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

Many Nigerians have never heard of the expression ‘’federal might’’ as an important factor in gubernatorial elections until Gov. Godwin Obaseki started talking about it in the weeks leading to the September 21 election in his state. He told the press that Senator Adams Oshiomhole and other APC stalwarts in the state were planning to rig the election and impose their candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, on the state with the use of ‘’Federal Might’’. Okpebholo won the election, polling 291,667 votes to beat Obaseki’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo of PDP, who got 247,274 votes and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata, who got a paltry 22,763 votes. But did Federal Might play a role in APC’s victory? Perhaps. I have participated in three governorship elections in Akwa Ibom State as a communications strategist and I have seen first hand how politicians crave the use of Federal Might to secure victory. This article is therefore based on by my personal experiences.

Federal Might is the deployment of federal resources, especially the security forces, to intimidate and harass opponents in order to create ample environment for the favoured party to rig election, often with the collusion of INEC. To procure Federal Might, an influential political figure in Abuja must give orders to the IGP and/or the Army chief to deploy excessive number of policemen and soldiers to the affected state with specific instructions to cow the opposition politicians and arrest some, if need be. Federal Might also entails INEC colluding with one party to the disadvantage of the others. Federal Might is therefore more valuable to a politician, especially those seeking to defeat a strong incumbent, than any other support he can get.

There are a few signs of the presence of Federal Might during an election. As soon as the policemen or ‘’federal forces’’ arrive the state to be captured, the leader of the command, typically an AIG, will establish contact with the favoured governorship candidate; and his first order of business is to arrest selected members of the opposition. The arrested men are usually influential leaders who command the respect of their party members. To create maximum impact, the arrest will happen at night and they’d be whisked off to Abuja before dawn. No doubt, the incarceration creates considerable embarrassment and trauma from the governor to the rank-and-file members of the party affected party.

The detention of some PDP henchmen, including local government chairmen in Edo, by the police in Abuja was an unmistakable early signal that Federal Might was being activated prior to the election. Despite Gov. Obaseki’s cries and Asue Ighodalo’s lamentations, the police did not explain the rational for the arrest and no charges have been brought against them till today.

Another sign of Federal Might is the disposition of the Resident Electoral Commissioner. If the REC is newly posted to the state just before the election, or if he had been found to be too chummy with members of one party, and INEC refuses to redeploy him out of the state despite pleas from the other party, then Federal Might is suspected. For some time, the PDP in Edo State has asked INEC to transfer the REC, Dr. Anugbum Onuoha, out of the state because he is a cousin of the FCT Minister, Nyesome Wike. Wike is a PDP member who as Rivers State governor helped APC win the presidential election in his state and as a reward, is now serving in the APC controlled federal government. It is enough reason to expect the REC to be biased. But INEC refused to budge, with the REC arguing that that his family relationship with Wike would not becloud his sense of duty. By refusing to move the REC from Edo, INEC failed to give all parties a sense of fairness and appearance of a level playing ground. An umpire, including a football referee, must be fair and be seen to be unbiased in all materials particular.

A REC is the number one electoral official in the state and if he decides to work against you in any election in your state, you’d be swimming against the currents and the chance of a loss is greater than 90%. An unconscionable REC has an arsenal of weapons he can use against a party he dislikes. He can, for example, substitute genuine result sheets with fake ones; instigate late arrival of voting materials in some areas to suppress voting and even blatantly facilitate forgery at the collation centers. Even after the elections, a REC can frustrate aggrieved parties from accessing the voting materials in preparation for litigation. I saw that play out in 2015 and 2019 in Akwa Ibom. However, to succeed in his wicked schemes, the REC must have the cooperation of the electoral officers (EOs) who are the chief superintendents of elections at the local government areas. In the 2015 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State, we had a REC who was openly biased against one of the two major parties. It was the most flagrant case of bias by a senior electoral official ever recorded in history. The REC eventually retired from INEC into stupendous wealth. In Edo State, the PDP is currently complaining that some of the results announced at the State Collation Center in Benin are different from what was uploaded on INEC’s iREV portal. That’s a very serious allegation that borders on the integrity of INEC.

The 2019 governorship election in Akwa Ibom State was an eye-opener on how Federal Might could work or fail to work. In August 2018, Senator Godswill Akpabio had decamped to APC from the PDP, thereby giving members and supporters of his new party the assurances that he would flip the state. we can all recall the infamous ‘’Warsaw saw War’’ statement, which further fueled tensions and frightened the PDP and the state government. At a stakeholders’ meeting of PDP in the Government House, a crestfallen member reportedly asked the governor, ‘’Your excellency, we don’t have INEC; we don’t have the police; what are we going to do’’? It was a poignant question for a party that had controlled the centre for 16 years and had known the importance of Federal Might.

The governor, Mr. Udom Emmanuel, seeking reelection, appeared beleaguered, cowed and insecure, but he was very clever. While his party, PDP, was campaigning hard, going from village to village, APC members were engrossed in endless meetings, planning and waiting for the arrival of the Federal Might. Besides, APC was bereft of the cohesion and stamina required to mount an effective assault against the PDP which had governed the state since 1999. The arrival of Akpabio in a way became an Achilles heel for the APC as some members’ resentments against him was beginning to sap the party of its mojo. In the welter of all the tensions in the state, anger in APC and frustration in the PDP, the governor sneaked into Abuja and struck a deal with the people in ASO Rock, including the then chief of Staff to the President, who received a huge erosion-control contract from the state government, in exchange for a support to the governor and his party. It was a masterstroke. With that, the table turned against APC in the state. Its cry for the redeployment of the REC, Mike Igini, who had appeared as a pro-PDP person and the request for support from the police and army, were completely rebuffed by Abuja. No Federal Might was forthcoming and, of course, APC lost the election woefully. Members began to heap blame on President Buhari for not helping out with the expected ‘’Federal Might’’. There’s no name they did not call Buhari.

Now, with the victory of APC in Edo over the weekend, APC members in Akwa Ibom State were once again jubilant, hoping that there is now a better chance for the Federal Might in 2027. ‘’Buhari did not care about the party in our state; but Asiwaju understands the game’’, an APC chieftain told me, after sharing a video of Akpabio and others dancing in Benin. Really? I told him that there are other circumstances that played out in Edo that may not happen in Akwa Ibom in 2027. For one, Obaseki’s fight with the powerful Oba of Benin and his meanness to his erstwhile deputy, Philip Shuaibu, were not helpful.

In the aftermath of the just-concluded gubernatorial election, it has become clear that the defeat of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) can largely be attributed to a combination of political missteps, most notably the exit of Philip Shaibu, the deputy governor, and Governor Godwin Obaseki’s tendency to burn bridges with political allies. These events highlight a broader lesson for politicians: the need to manage crises and strained relationships with fellow leaders, as failure to do so can unravel the strongest political alliances and weaken a party’s electoral chances.

Philip Shaibu’s departure from the PDP earlier in the political cycle sent shockwaves through the party. As a key political figure in Edo State and a grassroots mobilizer, Shaibu had been instrumental in ensuring Governor Obaseki’s political success, especially during their joint defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the PDP. His exit, however, was driven by mounting differences with Obaseki and a growing sense of isolation. As deputy governor, Shaibu became disillusioned with the way Obaseki managed internal affairs, leaving him little room to operate politically. His eventual exit did not just hurt the PDP but also reflected deeper cracks within the party structure.

Shaibu’s exit robbed the PDP of his loyal following in Edo North, a critical stronghold, significantly weakening the party’s voting base. Moreover, it sent a clear message to voters and supporters: if the party’s own leadership could not remain united, how could they be trusted to lead the state effectively? Shaibu’s defection highlighted the consequences of poor crisis management and failure to maintain healthy relationships among political allies, which became a key factor in the PDP’s electoral defeat.

However, Shaibu’s departure was only one symptom of a larger issue. Governor Obaseki’s penchant for alienating key political allies has been a recurring problem throughout his tenure. Over the years, he has distanced himself from powerful figures and internal party leaders, creating a reputation for burning bridges. His fallout with political allies, both within Edo State and at the national level, had weakened his support base well before the election.

One of the most notable instances of Obaseki’s tendency to burn bridges was his public clash with the PDP leadership shortly after his re-election in 2020. The governor’s refusal to fully integrate into the party’s structure caused a rift between him and core PDP members, many of whom felt sidelined. Obaseki’s perceived lack of commitment to party unity bred resentment, creating internal divisions that festered until they reached a breaking point.

This inability to manage political relationships not only weakened the PDP but also cost the governor the confidence of party faithful and the electorate. In a political landscape where loyalty and unity are critical, Obaseki’s habit of severing ties with key allies made it difficult for the party to present a unified front, further damaging their prospects in the election.

Beyond internal party issues, Obaseki’s administration struggled to deliver tangible democratic dividends to the people of Edo State. Voters became increasingly frustrated with the lack of visible progress in critical sectors such as infrastructure, employment, and economic empowerment. Despite numerous promises, many citizens felt the administration was more focused on political wrangling than delivering real benefits to the people.

This perception of underperformance became a potent weapon for the opposition, which capitalized on the growing dissatisfaction. Obaseki’s failure to demonstrate meaningful progress on the ground further alienated voters, who began to see his administration as disconnected from their daily struggles. By the time the election arrived, the PDP was fighting an uphill battle against not just a united opposition but also widespread discontent among its traditional supporters.

The PDP’s loss in the Edo gubernatorial election serves as a cautionary tale for politicians across Nigeria. The exit of Shaibu and Obaseki’s deteriorating relationships with political allies underscore the critical importance of managing crises and maintaining alliances. In politics, relationships are often the glue that holds parties and administrations together, especially during challenging times. Leaders must be adept at conflict resolution, compromise, and managing strained partnerships, as the failure to do so can have devastating electoral consequences.

Likewise, in states where political relationships are strained, this scenario serves as a warning. Politicians must prioritize the management of internal conflicts and maintain open channels of communication with their allies. Failing to do so risk the kind of fragmentation that plagued the PDP in Edo and contributed to its eventual defeat.

The collapse of the PDP’s electoral fortunes in Edo State can be traced back to a series of avoidable political missteps, most notably, the exit of Philip Shaibu and Governor Obaseki’s inability to maintain strong alliances. In the complex world of Nigerian politics, where personal relationships and grassroots mobilization are key to electoral success, political leaders must learn to manage crises with care. Obaseki’s experience should serve as a reminder to politicians across the country, especially in states like Rivers and beyond, that political bridges should be built and maintained, not burned.

As the PDP reflects on its defeat, the lessons from this election should resonate beyond Edo State. Politicians everywhere should take heed: mismanagement of internal conflicts, coupled with a failure to deliver democratic dividends, can derail even the most promising political careers. Only through careful crisis management and alliance-building can they hope to maintain the trust of the electorate and secure lasting political success.

As the dust settles after the gubernatorial elections, the people of Edo State are left wondering: “Has Edo finally chosen the Governor in Monday Okpebholo?” This question is not just one of curiosity but a reflection of years of pent-up frustration. Since Nigeria transitioned to democracy in 1999, Edo has had governors who entered office with grand promises of change, only for those promises to wither once they took power.

Governor after governor has been greeted with optimism, but as their tenures progressed, Edolites found themselves disillusioned, betrayed by leaders whose actions did not align with their campaign manifestos. The most recent example is Governor Godwin Obaseki, whose administration began with high hopes of industrial growth, infrastructural improvements, and financial prudence. While there have been pockets of achievement, many residents feel that the Obaseki’s two-termed tenure has left Edo State much as it found it, burdened by underdevelopment, decaying infrastructure, and a struggling economy.

This growing skepticism has cast a shadow over Monday Okpebholo’s victory. Despite the optimism that comes with a new leader, many are approaching this change with a blend of hope and caution. As Mr. Osahon Igbinovia, a small business owner in Benin City put it: “We have been burnt before. Obaseki came in with so many promises, but look at the state of things now, roads are still bad, and jobs are still scarce. Okpebholo has to be different, or else we will be back here in four years asking the same question.”

Edo State, historically known for its rich culture and strategic importance, has long struggled with leadership challenges. From the tenure of Chief Lucky Igbinedion, marred by corruption allegations, to Adams Oshiomhole’s populist approach, which resonated with many but eventually left a mix of successes and failures, the leadership cycle in Edo has been marked by high expectations followed by declining trust.

Governor Godwin Obaseki was elected with the promise of continuity and improvement, riding on the wave of Oshiomhole’s achievements. He campaigned on a platform of transparency, economic revival, and infrastructural development, pledging to modernize Edo and transform it into a business hub. However, as his tenure draws to a close, it is evident that many of those grand promises have not materialized as expected. The disconnect between the government’s claimed achievements and the daily realities of the average Edo citizen is stark.

Mr. Benson Orumwense, a retired civil servant, lamented: “We thought Obaseki would be different because he came in as a technocrat, someone who understood how to manage people and resources. But, in the end, it feels like we are still stuck in the same cycle, bad roads, failing hospitals, and nothing to show for the billions of naira allocated for development.”

The state of Edo’s infrastructure is particularly emblematic of the leadership failures. From pothole-riddled roads to poorly maintained public services, the gap between the promises made and the current state of things has left many Edolites wondering if Okpebholo can truly bring about the change the state desperately needs.

Monday Okpebholo, known popularly as “Akpakomiza,” presents himself as a man of the people, someone deeply connected to the grassroots, having come from humble beginnings. His political rise has been accompanied by the narrative that he understands the struggles of the average Edo citizen, given his own life story of rising through the ranks from poverty to prominence.

His campaign rhetoric focused on infrastructure development, job creation, and building a self-sufficient economy in Edo. Unlike Obaseki, who was perceived as being distanced from the people, Okpebholo promises to maintain close ties with the grassroots, a strategy that endeared him to voters during the campaign. His promises to revitalize agriculture, improve healthcare, and bring a new wave of industrialization have struck a chord with the populace.

However, the people of Edo have heard similar promises before. Mr. Lucky Ehiosun, a political observer, explained the prevailing sentiment: “Okpebholo’s story resonates with people, especially those from rural areas. But leadership is not just about your past; it is about your ability to deliver on your promises. He has to prove that he is not like the others who came before him.”

In particular, Edolites are keenly watching to see how Okpebholo addresses the state’s infrastructural decay. Over the years, residents have expressed frustrations over the deplorable state of roads, inadequate healthcare facilities, and the slow pace of economic growth. Many believe that unless the governor takes a firm stand on these issues within his first 100 days, he will face the same criticisms that have plagued past administrations.

Across the state, residents are speaking out about their hopes and concerns for the new administration. In Uromi, a professional colleague of this writer on phone voiced his thoughts: “We need a governor who will actually listen to us. The roads in the rural areas are terrible, and it is hard to transport our goods to the market. Okpebholo must focus on helping farmers and making the roads passable.”

A civil rights advocate, Mr. Chukwuma Eze, also shared his concerns: “The government needs to prioritize the welfare of the people over politics. If Okpebholo is serious, he will address the issues of unemployment and underemployment in the state. We need industries that will create jobs for our youth.”

Meanwhile, in Benin City, a youth leader, Osaro Osayande, emphasized the need for transparency in governance: “We have had governors who come in and make decisions without consulting the people. Okpebholo needs to be different. He must engage with the community, hold town halls, and actually involve the people in the decision-making process. That is the only way to build trust.”

Mr. Martins Eboigbe, in his counsel to Okpebholo, emphasized the importance of showing respect to the revered Benin Monarch, noting that such an attitude is not only a sign of humility but also a strategic move that resonates deeply with the people of Edo State. “In our rich cultural history,” Eboigbe stated, “the Oba is the embodiment of the people’s identity, unity, and tradition. Disrespecting the crown is seen as a grave taboo among Edolites, and anyone who does so risks alienating themselves from the very people they wish to lead.” He urged Okpebholo to align himself with the values that the Benin Kingdom holds dear, as doing so would earn him the favor of the people and place him in their good graces.

Furthermore, Eboigbe pointed out that Edolites have a profound reverence for their Oba, a sentiment that transcends politics and influences how leaders are perceived and accepted. “Any disregard for the monarchy,” he cautioned, “could result in a permanent stain on your public image.” He urged Okpebholo to seek the blessing and approval of the royal house, as those who honor the Benin throne often find themselves embraced by the people. Respecting the Oba is not only an obligation but also a strategic necessity for anyone aspiring to hold a leadership position in Edo State.

As Monday Okpebholo steps into the Edo State Government House, he must be keenly aware that the burden of expectations is heavy. The people of Edo are tired of empty promises and half-measures. They want a leader who will act decisively, focus on long-term development, and rebuild trust between the government and its citizens.

The key areas that will define his legacy include infrastructural renewal, job creation, and transparency in governance. He must prioritize fixing Edo’s crumbling infrastructure, from its rural roads to urban centers, ensuring that development reaches all corners of the state. His focus on economic growth must also translate into job creation, especially for the youth, whose unemployment rate remains alarmingly high.

However, beyond policy, Okpebholo must also work to restore the faith of the people in their leadership. After years of disappointment, the people of Edo deserve a governor who not only makes promises but delivers on them.

As Mr. AghoEsosa, a local artisan puts it: “We are tired of being fooled. Okpebholo has to be the one to break the cycle. If he does, Edo will finally be on the path to greatness. If not, we will be back to square one, looking for another leader.”

The question remains: “Has Edo found the right leader in Monday Okpebholo?” Only time will tell if he can rise to the occasion and lead Edo to a brighter future.