Devil is on the loose,
Fire is on the loose
This could be our noose
Unless we cut the noose

Someone loves the noose
He rigidly fiddles for the noose
Cos he has nothing to lose
If we all face the noose

Our necks are tightened by the black noose
Black patriots cry about the noose
Even white strangers cry about the black noose
Yet fat messengers of the noose
Indolently remain on the loose
To praise the hands of the noose
Till the raging fire of the noose
Consumes us with herdsmen's noose

Who then shall tell the news of the noose?

(c) Hope Eghagha

This is my third commentary on the Corona virus pestilence (see “E ku Corona o” – ThisDay, March 3, and “Amala and the Corona virus patient” – ThisDay, March 10), and now, three weeks later, the most important subject still remains this mysterious plague that has changed the way we live, the way we think, the nature and character of markets, physical and futures, the face of globalization, relationships, and the world as we know it. This is not the first time a pestilence will afflict the world: commentators have traced the genealogy all the way to pre-historic times, with the most often quoted being the Biblical times, at the time of the 10 Egyptian plagues and  the travails of Jews in Egyptian captivity, 5^th C, BCE, as narrated in the books of Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers and Deuteronomy, the Plague of Athens (430 BC), the Black Death (1346 -1353), the American Plagues (1519),  the Great Plague of London (1665 -1666), the scourge of cholera (1817), the Spanish flu which infected 500 million people (1918 -1920), and in more contemporary times, the outbreak of  HIV/AIDS (since 1981), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) – since 2002,  Zika (2015 -2016), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) – since 2012, and Ebola – since 1976, most impactful 2014 -2016, 2018 -2019. But whereas the death rate for these other diseases may be on the high side, the current strain of Corona Virus code-named COVID-19 has proven to be worse than anything else mankind has seen. It spreads like wildfire. It has no known confirmed cure and science has not yet fully decoded it. World leaders from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump, UN Secretary General, and Angela Merkel have compared what the world faces and is experiencing to a state of war, and indeed mankind is at war, a different kind of war, which exposes humanity to the full extent of its own vulnerability.  

In the natural chain of being, man sees himself at the head of the chain. He imagines himself to be the master of the universe, the most wondrous creation of God, gifted with immense cognitive powers to dominate and master the environment and modify nature to his own will. At the height of his glory, man celebrates his own genius and invincibility. Epistemological advances from pre-history to the present have thus been about man and the beauty of his capacity to tame nature and the environment and cast himself in the image of God. But for all his accomplishments, the biggest irony is that the more man seeks knowledge and attempts to master nature, the more he is reminded of the dimensions of the unknowable, the infinite immensity of the Cosmos, and the more this happens, man strives further, literally struggling with the proverbial task of Sisyphus in one myth and that of Atlas in another. In the face of this existential, or ontological dilemma, man is ultimately reminded that he is no more than a gnat, a very small part of the cosmos. Covid-19 is a reminder of this infinitesimality of man in the scheme of things. 

It is also a  most humbling experience about the power of science and reason, for it is clear to me that even if science catches up tomorrow with this rampaging mystery, and the Gordian knot is deciphered, there is no guarantee that humanity will not again be confronted with another challenge. Natural disasters have buffeted the world. Corona Virus has dismantled the well-known Elizabethan Chain of Being template on which many societies are based, even Queens and Princes are in self-isolation today. Celebrities and the High and Mighty have been humbled. The streets are empty. The markets are grappling with unusual demand and the crisis of supply. The world is literally on its knees. We are all left wondering: why? We can’t touch surfaces. We cannot hug loved ones. We cannot sneeze or cough. Or kiss. We are told to stay away from others. The same world that is supposed to be a global village has suddenly become a vast collection of neighboring but isolated islands. All the things that make us human are suddenly weaponized as tools of separation by a pestilence called Corona. In the year 2020, mankind has been reminded of the limits of its own intelligence. Is this a test? From where? And by whom?  Or is this a case of man overreaching himself, using his own intellect and ego to self-destruct and cause havoc for the community of a hitherto “coherent” whole? 

Throughout known history, whenever man faces a crisis of such unknowable nature, his tendency is to resort to religion, faith, and ego. Ego, first: man believes in the worst of circumstances that he is invincible. In the face of Corona Virus, we have seen scientists racing against time, we have seen competition between the United States and China – the race is more about who will be the first to find the cure. Added to that is the racial dimension amplified by the megalomaniacal US President Donald Trump who insists on referring to COVID-19 as the Chinese Virus. This is not the the time for the world to play the politics of ego. What humanity needs is social solidarity in the face of one of the worst manifestations of Evil since the Biblical Last Temptation. Faith, second: Human beings are animals of faith. They simply believe that no matter what, they will defy every odd. This is the source of all the conspiracy theories around and about Corona Virus: from black people insisting that black does not crack and that even Corona Virus cannot affect a black man to the delusionary thinking that Corona Virus cannot survive in the Tropics. The same people have since heard about the status of Idris Elba and his wife, both as black as this writer, but they won’t listen. They have been told that a Nigerian in Canada, another in the UK,  and another Nigerian in Nigeria yesterday, have died of Corona Virus, still they won’t believe. They insist that the consumption of alcohol or brewed Neem leaves (Dogonyaro as it is known locally) would help. President Donald Trump turned himself into a self-appointed Chief Medical Director of the world when he announced that the use of chroloquine phosphate is the cure for Corona Virus. He has since been disowned more or less by the US Food and Drug Administration agency, the FDA, which says it is still investigating possible cures for Corona Virus and has not made any discovery to that effect. Nonetheless there are persons around the world who by Trump‘s say-so have embarked on chloroquine self-medication.  President Trump’s declaration is irresponsible. Over the weekend, Nigeria recorded cases of chloroquine poisoning simply because some people listened to one powerful fake doctor called Donald Trump. World leaders have every right at this moment to empathize and show solidarity but they also have a duty to make only strictly responsible statements.  

Religion: I have left this as a last point to be addressed because this is precisely what many fall back upon in a season of distress and so it has been. As Corona Virus arrived in Africa, and made its landing in a few countries, the people trooped to places of religious worship in typical default response. Africans, victims of Karl Marx’s often wrongly contextualized statement that “religion is the opium of the people” usually blame God for everything. They regard God as the ultimate solution, indeed as the know-it-all-Being, the invocation of whose name can provide all answers to everything on earth. Richard Swinburne, a theist argues in his book - Is There A God? (Oxford University Press, 2010), that whereas the existence of God is “the ultimate brute fact”, human beings also have “obligations” or what he calls “supererogatory good actions” or “moral truths” to which they must abide even as they profess their love for God. Africans often mix this up. As the Corona Virus pestilence spreads in the continent from one or two cases to over 1, 500 cases and over 50 deaths, more of the people rely on the assurances of Pastors and Imams who promise a cure or advertise the possibility of it. In Ghana, one Prophet said he had found an anointing oil to cure Corona Virus, and the Chief Imam of the same country reportedly announced that all Muslims are now free to consume alcohol to combat Corona Virus. While Europeans and Asians are in quarantine, Africans rush for anointing oil, alcohol and herbal solutions. When Trump proclaimed chloroquine as cure, they obeyed him robotically. In Nigeria, pastors and all sorts have come up with passages in the Bible to justify the pestilence and how the cure is spiritual. Corona Virus vigils and special deliverance programmes have since been announced across communities.  The people ignore science and reason and decide to follow religion. It is the most scandalous part of the experience so far in Nigeria. The matter was put to the test just this last Sunday. 

By Friday, the Federal Government of Nigeria had announced that no church or mosque or any event at all should have a congregation of more than 50 persons. To our utter surprise, the Friday prayer worship was held in mosques across the country. Every announcement that Jumat prayers had been shut down in Iran and the entire Middle East, and that Nigerians should do the same, fell on deaf ears. The people insisted that it is at a time like this that the people need God. The Christians repeated the offence on Sunday. Lagos and Ogun state governments had to call out Task Forces to disperse church services which violated the official directive that every one should observe social distancing. In Lagos, event centres were sealed off, bars and restaurants were shut down.  What is it about our people? 

There is a video now making the rounds on social media about how some persons in Zimbabwe had to be caned to get them out of church on Sunday. Nobody caned people in Nigeria. But given the fact that nobody has any right to endanger the lives of others or even commit suicide, I am recommending that this week, should any strong-headed person refuse to obey the directives on social distancing, either on Friday or Sunday, such persons should be physically whipped by Nigeria’s law enforcement agencies. Nigeria has recorded up to 40 cases of Corona Virus with one death. That was how it started in China, Italy, Iran, the US and the UK.  Nigeria should not become the epicenter of Corona Virus in Africa, just because some people believe that God will do it. The painful truth is that many Nigerians, Muslim and Christians alike, including the educated, suffer from the “Jerusalem syndrome.” This is the biggest threat to all efforts so far to contain the spread of Corona Virus. The Jerusalem syndrome is a form of mental disorder, a kind of delusion, the pain that believers inflict on themselves. Extremely religious people behave as if they want the world to come to an end, in line with their expectations and tantrums. They should not be allowed to put all of us at risk. 

Christopher Hitchens who likes to identify as a libertarian anti-theist, is the author of a book titled “God is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything” (London: Atlantic Books, 2007). He argues in Chapter Two of the book that “Religion Kills” and in Chapter Four he writes: “A Note on Health to Which Religion can be Hazardous”.  It is perhaps not an accident that in South Korea, the most affected group is a religious congregation. Italy, the home of the Vatican, is the epicenter of the pestilence in Europe and has since displaced Wuhan as the global epicenter.  

Friedrich Nietzsche before eventually proclaiming the Death of God (1882), wrote about what he called the “futility of an illusion”, that is the illusion that religion can save humanity, or the futility of illusions that we embrace in order to make life possible. Sigmund Freud in 1927 wrote a similar book about The Future of an lllusion. Today, we are in the age of illusions. There have been too many illusions especially around the subject of the Corona Virus. People ignore the reality and embrace illusions. They want to live but they ignore the biggest threat of the decade. This is why in Europe, sanctions are being imposed on persons who refuse to obey the social distancing and lockdown rule. The UK Prime Minister has promised more drastic measures if people refuse to stay at home. In Italy, the police are out on the streets to arrest those who defy the Corona Virus order. Nigeria must follow up all existing measures with strict sanctions for those who continue to embrace the illusion that Corona Virus is a foreign virus. It is not. The pestilence is here. 

For a fact: Nigeria has adopted a number of measures: schools have been shut down, airports have been closed, state governments have responded, some steps have been taken to protect the economy and businesses (not far-reaching enough), but the big missing link, I insist, is the absence of sanctions for those who continue to argue that the pestilence means nothing because they believe “something” will protect them. That something may feed their illusions, but it may not protect others. It is because of such persons that Nigeria should impose strict, enforceable sanctions. As we have seen, Corona Virus is not a respecter of boundaries, nations, persons, status, faith or size. What is missing is what Nietzsche calls the “gymnastics of the will”, the will to confront a wicked problem with reason and common sense. Rwanda, Ghana and South Africa are doing much better than other African countries. Nigeria has the largest population in the continent. It carries a much heavier burden of its own and for the sub-region, if not the continent. We need more purposeful leadership, and a greater sense of urgency. Let me end this with this:  China has often proclaimed its love for Africa. It has managed so far to combat its own Corona Virus burden. Will it step forward at this critical moment to help Africa or look the other way?  

In the world of literature and the arts- imagic, plastic, graphic and visual – there is no power in the hands of one dominant, tyrannical individual as may be found in partisan politics, power is located in a widespread but felt realm of imagination, distributed into the hands and minds of many individuals, agents and reincarnations of the Muses, who distinguish themselves with the fecundity of their talent, the awesomeness of their imagination, and their natural capacity to build, illuminate, re-define and extend the traditions of human thought and accomplishments. It is our duty as a community and as beneficiaries to celebrate these special individuals whose outputs transcend the boundaries of colour, identity, race, ethnicity and religion, and who by their efforts in the kingdom of the imagination, affect, enrich and transform our lives. From the village, ancestral griots in Africa, to the ritual priests of Egypt, the priests of ancient Hellenistic post-ritual enactments, the gladiators of Roman festivals, through the centuries to the Alarinjo, Ayinla Omowura, Rihanna, Beyonce, and Tiwa Savage and all the poets, drummers, the dancers, actors and actresses, painters, wordsmiths, and the models who capture time and  space with their hips and swings, my firm belief is that humanity owes those who think, create, and engage society with their reconstruction of verbal and non-verbal imageries, a great debt of gratitude. Today, I devote this column and pay tribute to one of such persons: Odia Ofeimun, the poet, polemicist, author, journalist, publisher, and politician who turned 70, yesterday, March 16. 

At 70, Ofeimun has lived through many of the great events of post-independence Nigeria  and he is without doubt, one of the most articulate and persistent chroniclers and critics of that experience. He is a key voice in the perpetual search for a transformative, regenerative Nigerian revolution. For the better part of his life, Odia Ofeimun has devoted his time and energy to the task of “taking Nigeria seriously”, and yet this is a country that hardly rewards commitment and diligence. Instead, we reward characters who have no clear understanding of what it means to “take Nigeria seriously”.  In a country of 200 million people that can hardly generate up to 4, 000 MW of electricity, one clown from Niger State showed up in the Senate the other day and proposed a bill to ban generators. In Odia Ofeimun’s native country, so many other clowns have showed up over the years, but that has not deterred him from “taking Nigeria seriously.” Every brilliant Nigerian who continues to take Nigeria seriously is a patriot and an agent of change and hope. 

The man I celebrate today, Odia Ofeimun achieved intellectual maturity quite early and under quite inauspicious circumstances and this should serve as a lesson to the younger generation. Born and raised in Iruekpen in the Ekpoma Division of what later became known as the Mid-West, Odia Ofeimun arrived in Lagos as a secondary school drop-out and with nothing other than Primary School education. His father was a rich mechanic who fell on bad times. His grandfather was a man of noble extraction, with many wives and an active, fertile loin. Faced with family misfortune, Odia found his way to Lagos. His first job, as he told me the story himself, was as a factory worker in Ijora-Badiya area of Lagos. The name of the company is West African Thread Company. He did night-shifts, carrying load and managing to sleep wherever nature called. This did not discourage him.  He studied privately on his own and eventually wrote the School Certificate Examination, the famous GCE. He passed. He also enrolled privately later for the Higher School Certificate Examination. He also passed. In those days, the HSC was a prestigious piece of qualification. It was the ticket for Direct Entry admissions into universities. But there was something else about this factory worker: he loved words and he discovered poetry and literature. He scribbled on scraps of papers and notebooks. By sheer accident of fate, he sent a few of his poems to the then Mr. Wole Soyinka, who had become a celebrated African writer, and who was at the time putting together an Anthology of West African poetry. Soyinka has a life-long reputation for responding to every mail, especially from younger writers seeking his attention and support, and also being ready to encourage younger artists in general. In making his selection, Soyinka who did not now who Odia Ofeimun was, selected his poems and included them in the anthology. The factory worker became a published poet! Odia Ofeimun’s life would never be the same again.

Fate would also later bring him in contact with Mr. Bola Ige (as he then was), lawyer and rising star in the political firmament of Nigeria’s Western region.  Ofeimun’s HSC result got him a place at the University of Ibadan where he studied Political science.  He once told me Chief Bola Ige (as he later became) supported him financially. A few years ago, Odia Ofeimun visited the same factory in Ijora, Lagos where he was just a factory hand. He was surprised to find some of his old colleagues still on duty!  They had heard about his accomplishments. They were excited to see one of their own who had now become a superstar on the global stage. Ofeimun’s story is inspirational. Every young man who is depressed and thinking of ending it all at the Lagos Third Mainland Bridge, Nigeria’s suicide highway should remember Ofeimun’s story, the son of a bankrupt mechanic who made a name for himself on his own steam. Odia Ofeimun does not have billions in the banks, he has no powers to remove a traditional ruler from office, but the President of Nigeria has issued a statement congratulating him on his 70^th birthday!         

From a small factory in Lagos as labourer, Ofeimun created a manufacturing factory of his own. The only difference is that he manufactures words. He writes. He talks. He thinks. His factory of words is large, expansive, prodigious, his exports have earned him a solid, unimpeachable reputation. That dirty-clothed factory worker in Ijora is now a foremost public intellectual, and an undisputed leader in his chosen vocation, dressed in his own fashion choice of aso oke attires as a man of culture and as a promoter of African cultural symbols. It is a great privilege to know him.  It is a great blessing to be “one of the boys” of this immensely gifted writer who we refer to affectionately as “Baba” (for he is indeed a father figure in Nigerian arts and culture), or “Owanle” (in his native Esan language, that means “Elder”) or as most of us do, we just call him “Odia.” He doesn’t mind. He is a man completely without vanity, pretentions or affectations.

The thing that appeals to me most about him is his formidable intellect, which confers on him an unmistakable authority in both personal and intellectual circumstances. His mind is nimble and rich. He is able to turn every conversation into an argument and enrich it with his advantage of rich exposure. He is an orator even if he lacks the diplomacy of an orator seeking to win an audience to his side. Odia does not seek to persuade. He challenges you and he can be very obstinate with his views. He has an uncanny capacity to switch the template in an argument, he will take ownership of your argument, explain it better with facts, history and anecdotes, dismantle your original argument and then insist on his own original position. This unusual talent has brought him into conflict with those who consider him too intellectually aggressive and uncompromising. When he speaks, he sounds like he is writing. When you read his writings, he sounds like an orator’s delivery with all the emotions. This is both an advantage and a disadvantage. He got a full measure of the implications of this when as Secretary General and later President of the Association of Nigerian Authors (ANA), he thought he was in a position to direct the past, present and future prospects of the association. He was stoutly resisted by those who thought he should not be allowed deploy literary leadership as a tool of management and organizational knowledge. Many years later though, it is beginning to look as if he was the actual owner of some, not all, of the arguments.  

Odia’s big shortcoming is that he does not hesitate to make his position very clear and he has enough vocabulary to prove his point. He is a voluminous thinker. Whereas his poetry is precise, his prose is a big volume of words, carefully scored to a rhythm. Every subject for him is a philosophical problem wbich must be analyzed to the point of exhaustion. Odia’s essays do not end; they stretch into other arguments.  Long before Corona virus became a public health crisis, Odia Ofeimun infected the younger generation of Nigerian thinkers with the coronavirus of thought and ideas in the public domain.

What we have in return is a rich harvest of over 40 books and seminal essays. A balance sheet of Odia Ofeimun’s public career further reveals a number of high points, beyond the narratives above. One, he was the Private Secretary to Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the legendary and iconic Yoruba leader in the middle and later part of the 20^th Century. Ofeimun competed for that position with some Yoruba sons, but he was Awo’s choice. Awo did not know him. He had never met him. He got the job purely on merit. Awo was a living legend and sage. Working for him was like serving tutelage at the feet of an Avatar. In due course, it was reported that some documents escaped from Awolowo’s private bedroom which showed up on the pages of a national newspaper, and exposed the great Awo to gross embarrassment. The Yoruba elements who never wanted Odia Ofeimun on the job conspired against him, and made him the scapegoat. Till today, nobody knows exactly what happened. But I am shocked that each time this topic comes up, Odia refuses to be malicious. He remains an Awoist and a friend of those he believes may have been behind his travails in the Awolowo household. He continues to adore and promote Awo.  

He moved beyond the Awo debacle to become a strong force in the market place of ideas. Man is born to rise and fall and rise again. He experiences the cycles of fate: he lives and dies and rises again. Odia Ofeimun’s life is a script written in the city of the Phoenix. His resilience is the stuff of genius. He served as a member of the Editorial Board of The Guardian newspapers. He was an editorial writer and an active contributor to the polemics on the pages of Nigerian newspapers in the 80s and early 90s. It is sad that there is no debate on the opinion pages of Nigerian newspapers today. Every character who ever passed through the newsroom is now a columnist. Opinionitis – a disease as bad COVID-19, is now rife. Creativity is scarce. We are now in the age of the columnist as a consultant-propagandist. Ofeimun belongs to a different generation. That generation survived for a while, until it ended up in the hands of anyone who ever wrote a news intro.  

After The Guardian, Odia went abroad. But fate bought him back and he lived in the Aromire- Ikeja area of Lagos where all the young boys learning to write poetry converged on his space and he became the Godfather of a whole generation of Nigerian poets. He later became the Chairman of the Editorial Board of The News and Tempo and was part of the struggle for Nigeria’s second independence- that is the independence from military rule and Northern totalitarianism. Odia’s journalism bears the same imprints as his poetry. A skilful reader of his writings  across the genres will see a persistent attempt to reach a high level of perfection and idealism, a devotion to humanism, and a determination to correct what is wrong with society. In his various essays, Odia is not afraid to engage in theoretical disputes. And is he fully armed? Yes, he is.  He is a romantic though. He does not often appreciate the aesthetic, delicate, distance between theory and action.  

He has always boasted that he is in a position to teach Nigerian politicians how to play politics. I guess this is why in 2015, he aspired to become Governor of Edo State. I wrote a piece in The Guardian in which I lampooned him.  It is good he didn’t make it. His fate would have been worse than that of Godwin Obaseki, current Governor of Edo State, whose biggest challenge is the scourge of the the politics of “Godfatherism.” Odia would have written poems and essays to attack the Godfather and his agents and he would have been in bigger trouble. 

I admire Odia Ofeimun. But I particularly do not like the fact that he extends his intellectual authority beyond his own limits. I recall how he tried in my younger days to act as a marriage counsellor: his only qualification being the fact that he was at my wedding and the naming ceremonies of my children. When he tried to start intellectualizing about how to be a husband, I reminded him that he had never married a woman in his life, and so, he should not act like the Pope. Once Odia knows your wife, you cannot take even an innocent female Personal Assistant to his house! He claims to be an expert in matters like that, when we all know that he and one famous Ijebu Chief’s daughter are…Okay, I have to stop there… Look at your ears, aproko somebody, you too like gist! Odia is a good cook. He knows how to entertain. He dances well.  He doesn’t drink alcohol, although if you invite him to a party, he is likely to bring a bottle of wine. He is a wonderful friend and mentor. My family knows him as Daddy Odia. From all of us, may you live long sir to become the Odionwele of your clan in Esan West Kingdom.  Congratulations.  

Of all the updates that have been given so far by the Lagos State authorities on the government’s efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus, and ensure proper care for the reported index case, and other possible cases (there is a second case now), the most intriguing update for me is the disclosure that the Italian index case who has since been quarantined at the bio-security facility in Lagos, is recovering -  indeed so well that he now eats a local delicacy, called “Amala”. This disclosure was attributed to the Manager of the Bio-security Centre in Lagos, Dr. Bankole Akinwale. Let no one be under any mistaken impression that the doctor was trying to suggest that the eating of amala, is any form of cure for corona virus; he being a Yoruba had to find the most graphic way to convey the patient’s health status as at the time he made that disclosure six days ago.  

Amala is a special delicacy that is very popular among the Yoruba people of Nigeria. It is in two forms, white and dark brown colours: the former is made from cassava, and is far more popular among the Egba people of Ogun State. They call it Lafun. The latter which is the standard paste is made from yam. Both are best consumed with a variety of soups particularly okro, ewedu, ogbono, or well-made egusi soup or vegetables. When a Yoruba man tells you that he is eating or enjoying amala, it is an indirect way of telling you that he is in good health. In Nigeria, it is not unusual to find persons who associate a good appetite with being well and alive. It is assumed that the sick may not really have a good appetite. This is why the moment a sick person begins to feed well, that is seen as a good sign of recovery. There may be no scientific basis for it, but at least that is what the people believe. 

And so when the doctor in charge of the coronavirus isolation centre in Lagos reports that the Italian in the facility’s care has started eating amala, he simply spoke “YorubaEnglish”.  An Italian eating Amala? When did he develop the taste for it? Many of the persons I discussed the matter with began to wonder whether there is actually a kitchen at the isolation centre. We tried to imagine the recuperating Italian dropping dollops of amala into his mouth, with slimy okro and ewedu, and having a good bite of goat meat, intestine, tripe, stockfish, fresh fish or what Iya Sunday, my favourite amala seller calls “orisirisi.”  

Only one person objected to the disclosure of the information about the Italian who now eats Amala.

“That was an overkill,” he said… 

“It was okay to just tell us that the Italian is recovering. Telling the public that the man now eats Amala. Do you know that some hungry Nigerians can now show up at the isolation centre, hoping to also eat free Amala?, ” he added. 

“God forbid! What kind of joke is that?” another person quipped. “We are talking about Corona Virus. It is a deadly disease. Why would anybody go to an isolation centre just because he or she has heard that they are serving Amala there. It is an isolation centre, not a restaurant.” 

“Dey there. You don’t know some Nigerians. There is so much poverty in this land. People will do anything just to have three meals a day. Government is using its resources to address the corona virus challenge. Testing and treatment are free, and if you recover quickly, you may be served hot piping amala. People will troop down there for a free meal. And may be a bottle of beer.” 

“I beg, jare, do you know if they will also serve nkwobi, isi ewu, tuwo shinkafa, and edikaikong at the isolation centre?”, one obvious clown interjected. 

The conversation went on circuitously, and was beginning to assume the shape of a pepper-soup joint repartee when someone sternly reminded us all that there was nothing funny about Corona Virus and that since the index case was identified, there has been another confirmed case in Nigeria, effectively bringing up the number of cases to two. What makes it all the more frightening is the fact that the second person contracted the virus through contact with the first reported case. It has been more than a week since that Italian was quarantined in Lagos. The second reported case during that period has been out there also making contact with other people, who have also contacted others.  Nigeria’s early response mechanism and multi-sectoral collaboration to contain the spread of the virus may be commendable, but two weeks later, there are obvious gaps that need to be addressed, and efforts need to be further intensified. How effective is the contact tracing protocol for the two identified and confirmed cases? 

There are reported 23 laboratories and isolation facilities in the country. But what is their quality? Senate President Ahmad Lawan and a team from the National Assembly recently visited the two isolation centres in Abuja. He had to raise an alarm. He met the facilities in such a poor state, he had to threaten to return with his team within a week to check if there have been any improvements. Senator Ahmad Lawan also lamented that the Ministry of Finance has not released money ear-marked for the fight against Corona Virus. His protest helped. Three air conditioners were hurriedly installed the day members of the National Assembly visited. Other states of the Federation including Ekiti, Plateau, Benue, Kano, Bauchi, Osun, Ondo, Cross River, Nasarawa, Edo, the FCT and Ogun have announced measures to contain the spread of Corona Virus, but in reality only Lagos State appears to be better prepared. In the event of an outbreak, even the facilities in Lagos and the FCT will be overstretched. 

There are lessons that we can learn from elsewhere. As at February 7, 2020, Italy reported only three confirmed cases of Corona virus. By February 16, the number had risen to 21.  What followed was an explosion in the numbers. About 9, 172 people are with the virus in Italy today. Over 463 have died. Italy is the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe. Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte has released a health decree imposing restrictions on the movement of people in the region of Lombardy and about 15 provinces, thus quarantining about 16 million people in Northern Italy. They are not allowed to move in and out of the territory until April 3. Violation of the restriction order will attract stiff penalties: jail time and a fine.  Italy is now effectively on complete lock down. Sporting events around the world are being postponed. Football matches are now being played behind closed doors. Supermarkets, cinemas have been shut down. The United Kingdom is in a panic mode. The NHS is already overstretched.  Many nations are imitating China. The United States has set aside $8.3 billion. This is not just the flu. The world is on fire! 

I do not think that the average Nigerian even takes the Corona Virus threat seriously. One enlightened fellow, a man who should know, told me the other day that we don’t need to panic. He insisted there is too much hysteria over Corona virus and that in six months, it would have passed.  One famous Pastor has been quoted as saying there will be rainfall before the end of the month and that rainfall will wash Corona Virus away. The Pastor has a large following. His followers believe him. In Ghana, another  Pastor is now making a fortune out of what he calls Corona Virus Anointing Oil. Yes. Anointing Oil! In Nigeria, churches are also making brisk business out of Corona Virus. They are organizing prayer sessions and night vigils where worshippers hold hands, sneezing in each other’s faces and polluting the environment with saliva. Nigerian cinemas are still open and crowded every weekend. Wedding and funeral parties remain busy. People are still going about sticking out their tongues for a kiss. A serious public health crisis is most certainly around the corner. We need to be better prepared. This is how bad the situation is: Every other country began its encounter with Corona with one index case and gradually, the virus spreads…  

The time has come for President Muhammadu Buhari to take personal charge of the crisis and address the nation.  Human lives are in danger. The Nigerian leader must step forward and give the people hope. More so, as the Corona Virus pandemic is threatening not just the global economy but the Nigerian economy which is bound to take a terrible hit. During the last global financial crisis, Nigeria managed somehow to survive the external shocks. With the present global threat, the circumstances are different. A week ago, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, drew attention to the fact that the fundamentals of the 2020 Budget would have to be reviewed in collaboration with the National Assembly. When Mrs. Ahmed spoke, the spot price of Brent crude had gone down to $52 dollars per barrel due to the Corona effect on global demand for crude.  

With the travel and tourism industry and the manufacturing sector shut down in many countries, oil prices have crashed. OPEC had on its agenda a discussion of further cuts for its members: an additional 1.5 million barrels per day. Nigeria’s 2020 Budget is based on a projection of 2.1 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N360 to the dollar. Since Mrs Ahmed spoke, things have turned worse. Oil prices have collapsed! As at yesterday, the price of Brent crude was down to $31.80. The major catalyst for this is the price war between Saudi Arabia and its long-time ally, Russia. Russia refused to agree to further production cuts, insisting it can survive on a price of $25 per barrel, and enough reserves to support its national currency, the rouble. Saudi Arabia is also threatening to flood the oil market by raising its own production level, thus forcing prices down.  Saudi Arabia has a number of advantages. Russia can also absorb the fall-out. But where does a collapse of oil prices leave Nigeria and others? Lower oil prices will affect economies that depend on crude oil.  Global stock markets virtually came to a standstill yesterday. The New York Stock Exchange had to shut down for 15 minutes. Faced with the biggest shock since 1991, trading was halted. Stocks plunged. Yields on government bonds moved southwards.    

What is happening is enough to cause panic in Nigeria. Can Nigeria afford to sell crude oil at $25 per barrel? Our production cost is about $30 per barrel. Our daily production capacity is between 1.7 to 2 million barrels of crude oil per day. Can we afford like Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production? Truth: We don’t have the capacity. Oil and gas business is oily and capital-intensive. We don’t have the resources. And even if we produce more oil, who will buy from us given the emergent energy demand crisis in the world? The worst case scenario, if the present situation persists, is a huge shortfall in Nigeria’s oil revenue.  If prices fall below $30 per barrel, our economy will simply fail. We cannot boast like Russia that we have enough reserves to absorb the shocks. Our effective foreign reserves cannot offer us much protection. The Excess Crude Account is depleted. All essential indicators: inflation, unemployment interest rates, debt to GDP ratio are all likely to rise. Nigeria thus faces the threat of another recession, and probably an inevitable devaluation of the Naira. Poverty will spread. Growth will stall.  

Mr Bode Ososami, Arise News Business Analyst expressed the view on The Morning Show on Arise News yesterday morning that somehow, Nigeria is always resilient in the face of worst scenarios. I admire his optimism. But if anything, Corona Virus has exposed Nigeria’s utter vulnerability, particularly with regard to our over-dependence on crude oil revenue. When South Africa slipped into recession recently, some Nigerians started jubilating that the Nigerian economy had overtaken the South African economy. Two weeks later, Nigeria faces its own prospect of recession and yet, the South African economy is far more efficient and competitive. Right now, the US is also mulling the possibility of a recession. The US government is talking about economic stimulus options. What are we saying in Nigeria? We need all the economists, virologists, epidemiologists and all the talking heads, real and fake to start talking. What options are available? The emergency that the country faces cannot be left to the political leadership alone. We need a frank and open conversation on one critical subject: how to save Nigeria. And two co-joined things: public health and the economy. 

Yes, there is so much going on in Nigeria right now. I know that. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, former Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank, the outspoken and cerebral Emir of Kano has just been deposed.   We can deal with that: the security implications, the morality of it, the meaning for the people of the North. Emir Sanusi didn’t need the job anyway. He has enough talent, intellect and skills to survive in the open society. His detractors may end up regretting his removal because they may have just turned him into a hero. There is also serious in-fighting in the ruling party, the APC. The gladiators should learn to keep their egos in check and put Nigeria first!. The National Assembly has also approved an external borrowing plan of $22. 7 billion: right now, who will that help? The simple point is this: nobody should play “amala politics” with Corona Virus. The President should personally lead the fight against this global scourge that threatens to cripple the economy and throw more Nigerians into poverty and misery. It is not enough to set up another committee.  

The Yoruba people of South Western Nigeria, described by one English Language dictionary as the fun-loving people of the Southern part of West Africa have a habit of greeting people over everything. Whatever the matter is, they just like to greet, and they will go to any extent to design a message around any event. If the sun is high in the sky, they will greet you and draw your attention to the heat. If it is too cold, the average Yoruba man will remind you that the weather is cold and try to identify with you: “E pele otutu yi.” For other Nigerians who have a different culture and tradition, it can be somewhat irritating. I once thanked a Fulani friend of mine for supporting me when my mother died, he had to remind me that I had already thanked him three times and he felt embarrassed being thanked again and again. He told me to stop!

I recall, most fondly the case of one of my late bosses in my days at The Guardian. Chief as we all called him was the eyes and the ears of the owner of the company. He was Mr. Alex Ibru’s cousin. In his own right, he was a distinguished journalist, one of the best that the Nigerian media industry ever produced. Knowledgeable, confident and self-assertive, Chief was not anybody’s fool. He was a no-nonsense person. He knew the job. He knew everybody. He was not afraid to make enemies. He groomed younger persons.  He was our father. But one morning, one Yoruba boy made the mistake of greeting him too much. Yoruba people are very bad when it comes to greetings: they will look at the clock and tell you: “e ku asiko.” Other Nigerians don’t understand why an entire ethnic group must always greet people.  

At The Guardian, this young Yoruba boy ran into Chief Andy Akporugo, and greeted him: “E pele sir. Migwo sir.” 

Chief fired back: “Shut up. This is the fifth time you are greeting me today. Don’t you have work to do? And why are you not at your desk? Everywhere I go, I run into you and you are busy greeting. Go and sit down and work. Only God knows how many people you have greeted today. If I run into you again and you greet me, I will have you sacked.” 

Before long, word went round that it was a crime to greet Chief Andy Akporugo twice in a day. The only problem was that Chief was everywhere. He moved around like a spirit and the staff felt obliged to greet him and pay homage. Some of us got away with it. He would tell me: “Abati, you know you are a brilliant young man, that is why you get away with everything.” God bless Chief’s soul. But I see his point. Yoruba people greet too much. I was in Abeokuta on Saturday. It was Lisabi day. Lisabi is the patron saint of Egbaland. In 1830, the people of Egbaland in the South Western part of Nigeria declared a nation and formed a government – The Egba United Government (EUG). They related directly with the British and other parts of Europe. In the course of the civil war in Yorubaland in the 19^th Century, the Egbas were led by a man called Lisabi; that army later teamed up with the Ibadan army to protect the entire Yorubaland against the onslaught of the Fulani Army. They won the war. 

They stopped the Fulani Army from dipping the Quoran into the Atlantic Ocean. But the Egba people betrayed Lisabi, their Generalissimo. To atone for that sin, Lisabi is celebrated every year by the people of Egbaland. The Egba National Anthem pays tribute to this valiant warrior. Every Egba child is known as “Omo Lisabi”. Whatever prayer that is taken to “Igbo Lisabi” the spot where the warrior decided to end it all, is answered. So we are told, even when there are other Egba heroes: Balogun Sodeke, Chief Apati of Kemta Lemboye and Ayikondu of Igbein, Ogundipe Alaqtishe, Nlado of Kemta, Ogundeyi of Iporo, Sorunke and Aboaba of Igbein etc.  In 1914, Lord Lugard amalgamated the Northern and Southern Protectorates, and the Lagos Colony. Egbaland thus became part of a new Nigeria. In 1859, Abeokuta was the first Nigerian town to have a newspaper: the Iwe Irohin founded by Henry Townsend of the Church Missionary Society (CMS). Its children will also become the many firsts in Nigerian professions due to early contact with Western education.  In 1930, the people of Egbaland celebrated the first centenary of the Egba nation. There is a Centenary Hall in Abeokuta. The current Alake of Egbaland, Adedotun Gbadebo III, is planning to build a new monument to commemorate the history of the Egba people.   

On Saturday, I was in Abeokuta. Although I was not directly involved in the preparations for Lisabi Day, having so far put off all chieftaincy title acceptance ceremonies, I felt a sense of duty to be in the town on the day the iconic Lisabi was being honoured. I was in town also for political reasons. There had been reports in the newspapers about further frictions in my political constituencies: Ogun Central and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the state. You will recall that I was a Deputy Gubernatorial candidate of the PDP in the 2019 general elections in Ogun State.  I was a genuine running mate with only one name and solid certificates, if you know what I mean. I needed to talk to the stakeholders, the foot-soldiers and the people we call “strikers” to get a good sense of the politics. The first man I met was more interested in Corona Virus.

“Deputy, e ku Corona Virus oh.”  

That threw me off balance. Two days earlier, an index case of Corona Virus involving an Italian who returned to the country on February 25 had been reported. The Yoruba people of South West Nigeria wasted no time in constructing a greeting around it: “E ku Corona o” (that is an announcement of awareness and an expression of concern”).  “E pele Corona” (that is an expression of sympathy”).  “A o ni ri ogun Corona lagbara Jesus” (that is a prayer in Jesus name). “Corona ko ni ko wa lo o” (These people are terrible: this statement means Corona will not destroy us.). “E de ku ti Corona yi o” (that is another expression of concern). The way Yoruba people greet and pray, you simply can’t stop them. Every hello is a paragraph. Every greeting is a philosophy. You just need to be patient. I was. 

Nigeria’s first index case who is now in Yaba at the Lagos State Infectious Diseases Hospital was said to have visited Ogun State. He arrived in the country from Italy and went straight to Ewekoro, where there is a cement factory, less than 30 kilometres from Abeokuta.   He then returned to Lagos where he has since been isolated. Ogun State has isolated 28 persons with whom the index case, hopefully he won’t be a super-spreader, reportedly had contact. Across the country, Nigeria has been on the equivalent of a red alert. The Federal Capital. Territory has isolated up to 9 persons. The Benue State Government has set up a 17-man committee to address the likely menace of Corona Virus. Plateau State has quarantined 43 persons in  Wase LGA: 25 Nigerians and 18 foreigners. Edo State has put a mechanism in place to track all travelers to Edo State from every part of the country. On the face of it, Nigeria seems to have done better than other countries of the world.   There is big panic in the United Kingdom with senior doctors protesting that the country is not prepared. In the United States where the first death has been recorded in Washington State, the people think a lot more can be done. In Italy, perhaps the second worst hit country, the authorities are just not prepared. Italy is overwhelmed. Iran is confused. 

I have heard a few voices commending Nigeria. But we are not yet doing enough. We need to do more. It is not enough for President Muhammadu Buhari to tell us not to panic. Nigeria should panic. We face a public health safety crisis. Nobody should tell us not to panic. About the same time that Corona virus made its landing in Nigeria, we were told that Lassa Fever is a major problem in the country: over 100 reported deaths already in more than 27 states. Nigeria also has one of the highest rates of maternal morbidity and infant mortality in the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has further reported that Nigeria has the highest sero-prevalence of tuberculosis in the world. HIV/AIDS rate may have reduced in Nigeria but it also remains a serious problem around here. Nigeria also ranks among countries with the highest rates of open defecation in the world. Thus, Nigeria is a country with a public health emergency. It is the more reason why every step must be taken to ensure that Corona Virus does not spread in Nigeria. So far, over 33 countries have been affected including the United States.  There is no cure yet, and what we hear is that the fastest vaccine trial effort in Israel, will take up to three months. Since the Virus left Wuhan, its epicenter, there have been more cases outside China, with the new virulent cases being reported in Italy, South Korea and Iran. The entire world is vulnerable. Our world is at risk. Nobody is safe. The entire world faces the threat of disease. Humanity is humiliated, reminded forcefully and starkly, of its vulnerability and mortality. What is it that we do, that reminds us again and again of the helplessness of man in the face of the immensity and supremacy of the cosmos?   I have no answer. 

Before I left Abeokuta, however, I was shocked when someone asked me to pay for Corona, again in Yoruba language: “Deputy, e sanwo Corona oh”.  I thought this was a joke. I felt like telling the guy he was mad, but he meant business. “E fun wa lowo Corona oh.” He was literally asking me to give him some money for Corona. He had no fever. Nobody around him had been diagnosed as a Corona patient. He just wanted money and he thought mentioning Corona would do the magic. I played along. “Corona ko ni ko wa lo o, tomo tomo.”. In Nigerian politics, you must learn to speak the people’s language and identify with them. The bigger epidemic in Nigeria, in any case, is the epidemic of empty pockets. The ordinary Nigerian will do anything to fill the emptiness of his or her pockets. It is therefore not surprising that the prices of sanitizers, face masks and hand wash have gone up. I won’t be surprised if very soon, there is a Nollywood movie on Corona Virus! I have already seen photos of some beautiful women carefully posted on Social media with the message: “Not all Coronas are deadly!” Phone numbers are discreetly attached. In the midst of everything, sad and tragic, Nigerians always manage to be humorous. The only problem is that there is nothing laughable about a global epidemic.  The World Health Organization (WHO) is yet to declare it a global pandemic. I think the time has come for that. 

COVID-19 as it is designated by the WHO is worse than MERS, SARS, Zika and Ebola before it. Nigeria woke up early to the crisis. We must commend all the agencies that began with public sensitization and enlightenment programmes. The Federal Government, the state governments of Lagos, Ogun, Edo, Plateau, Benue and Edo States have so far done a good job of mobilizing the populace to take precautions or quarantine likely cases.  But we certainly need to do a lot more, relying on lessons from other jurisdictions. 

Is it possible for example for Nigeria to ban arrivals from all high-risk countries until further notice and that should include China, Japan, Italy, Iran, and South Korea? Can Nigeria also issue a travel advisory insisting that any Nigerian that has been in Europe in the last two weeks should be compulsorily isolated, and that no other Nigerian should go to Europe or Asia until further notice? Is it also possible to put every Nigerian state on red alert? There are reports that there is now in Nigeria a scarcity of hand wash, face masks, and sanitizers. The Federal Government should try every effort to ensure adequate supply of these protective materials particularly for our health personnel who are most at risk. Every available isolation and laboratory centre should also be upgraded. We should scale up medical checks at our ports of entry. The index case in Nigeria came in through Murtala Muhammed Airport. He should have been quarantined at the airport and not allowed into the community. As the Yoruba would say: “A o ni ri ogun Corona. Corona o ni ko wa lo o”. You will have to understand Yoruba to get that. 

Yesterday at Arise News, Collins Khumalo of Arise Play came visiting. He had just returned from Europe. We greeted each other shaking legs. He too shook legs with Ijeoma Nwogwugwu, the MD of Arise News.  I later exchanged leg greetings with Chika Mbonu, Arise News Business Analyst.  When I ended up doing high-fives with Ijeoma, I quickly rushed into the bathroom to wash my hands. She provided money for the purchase of hand wash for all toilets in the building.  We later resolved to advise one of our colleagues who just returned from Europe to stay away from the office for the next two weeks if she doesn’t mind. Covid-19 has brought a new form of madness into town. It is disrupting relationships and the the way we behave and do business. Even the Nigerian Stock Market is down. The spot price of Brent Crude has crashed throwing Nigeria’s economy and the 2020 budget into disarray, with genuine anxieties about the eventual value of the national currency, the Naira. Market capitalization has declined. What have we done to deserve this? “E pele Corona oh.”

Here is the main problem with Nigeria’s electricity sector: Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, but it has failed consistently to generate, transmit and distribute enough electricity to power its development process and accelerate economic growth. Between 1999 and 2007, President Olusegun Obasanjo focused on the reform of the electricity sector as one of the major priorities of his administration. Gas-powered plants were set up across the country under his watch, turbines and other equipment were imported. His government laid the foundation for reform in the power sector but could not complete the process, particularly the privatization of the power sector.  Obasanjo’s legacy includes the National Electric Power Policy (NEPP) of 2001, the National Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 which established the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), and the establishment of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), to replace the notorious National Electricity Power Authority (NEPA). The PHCN was later unbundled into 18 successor companies. By the time President Obasanjo left office in 2007, power generation in the country had increased from about 1, 200 MW in 1999 to 4, 000 MW in 2007. For a country of Nigeria’s size and population, this was not enough to transform the country.  Obasanjo was succeeded by President Yar’Adua.

In the course of his campaign for Presidential office, Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua stressed the importance of the electricity sector as an engine of growth. He promised to declare a national emergency in the sector. He eventually didn’t declare an emergency but shortly after assuming office in 2007, President Yar’Adua established a Presidential Committee for the accelerated expansion of Nigeria’s power infrastructure with a mandate to ensure the delivery of 6, 000 additional megawatts within 18 months and an extra 11, 000 MW by 2011. By the time President Yar’Adua gave this directive, Nigeria’s power generation capacity was down to 3,000 MW per day. South Africa with a much smaller population was at the time generating 36, 000 MW. Egypt with a population of 78 million also had a generating capacity of 36, 000 MW. The Yar’Adua Committee which was given 18 days to do its work, submitted its report one year later! 

The House of Representatives also conducted a probe of the electricity sector. The House Committee on Power led by Hon. Ndudi Elumelu accused the Obasanjo administration of having spent over $10 billion on the electricity sector without having much to show for it. The Committee disclosed that between 2000 and 2007, the Obasanjo administration spent over $10 billion on various projects in the power sector. The Elumelu Committee raised questions and demanded answers. The Presidential Committee meanwhile recommended that the country would still need about $85 billion to meet the target of 20, 000 MW generating capacity as recommended by the Vision 2020 Committee. President Yar’Adua in the course of it all, ordered a probe of the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). The Chairman of the NERC and six commissioners of the agency were suspended from office and invited for questioning. 

President Yar’Adua’s government soon entered into discussions with General Electric (GE) and later signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the German Government on power development projects in Nigeria. Siemens was one of the six German companies included in that MOU. The Government also launched a Gas Master Plan to address the problem of gas supply to the Papalanto, Omotosho and Geregu power plants built by the Obasanjo government. Contracts worth over $660 million were awarded, but despite all its good intentions, the Yar’Adua government could not make much difference. Power supply remained epileptic in Nigeria. There are many who believe that the efforts of the Yar’Adua administration were abbreviated by a lack of urgency occasioned by the President’s health challenges and the obsession of that administration with the past administration’s expenditure in the power sector. It was so bad that power equipment worth $5 billion that had been imported in 2, 500 (or 800?) containers by the Obasanjo administration, which arrived three days after President Obasanjo left office were abandoned at the ports for three years. Taxpayers incurred a demurrage of N4 billion! 

President Yar’Adua was succeeded by Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. As former Chairman of the National Economic Council and former Chair of the National Council on Privatization, Jonathan was certainly privy to the Electricity Sector Road Map and the Power Sector Master Plan. He continued where his boss former boss stopped, but even more so, from where Obasanjo stopped, and by avoiding the ugly politics and blame game that had developed around the subject of electricity delivery in Nigeria, he was able to make significant process in the areas of accelerated reform, policy execution, provision of power sector infrastructure, public-private sector partnership and privatization. 

President Jonathan had threatened, right from his early days in power that he would privatize the PHCN, and reform the electricity sector. In due course, he launched a Power Sector Transformation Plan and gave full effect to the Nigeria Electricity Sector Regulatory Act of 2005. He commissioned and upgraded a number of power plans including the Azura-Edo power plant, the first fully privately owned Independent Power Plant in Nigeria. He re-organized the PHCN by selling off the Federal Government’s majority stakes in the 18 companies unbundled from PHCN in the shape of six Generation Companies (GENCOS), 11 Distribution Companies (DISCOs) and a Transmission Company owned fully by the Nigerian government. Private sector investors in the GENCOs and DISCOs paid as much as $3.3 billion for the acquired PHCN assets in what was considered an open and fair process even by international observers. Nigerian banks supported the process, investments were also attracted to the gas sector.  By 2013, the power sector had resurrected with installed generation capacity at about 12. 910 MW, but available capacity nevertheless remained at less than 7. 652 MW. Transmission capacity was 8, 1000 MW while a distribution peak of 5, 375 MW was recorded. Thus, the problem of low capacity utilization persisted. 

President Goodluck Jonathan handed over to President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. Like other Presidents before him since 1999, President Buhari even as a candidate promised to transform Nigeria’s power sector.  In the run up to the 2015 elections, President Buhari in a document titled “Covenant with Nigerians” and also in the “APC Manifesto”, promised that “The APC government shall vigorously pursue the expansion of electricity generation and distribution of up to 40, 000 MW in 4 to 8 years.” The promised figure was twice the Vision 2020 Committee projection of 20, 000 MW by 2020. The reality is that the Buhari administration has not been able to deliver on that promise. In 2017, former Minister of Power, Housing and Works, Babatunde Fashola claimed that the government had achieved a record 5, 074 MW in actual power generation.  From 2015 to date, President Buhari has continued to give assurances that his administration will sort out the electricity sector crisis. 

The administration has reportedly spent more than N900 billion on the power sector as intervention fund. It has signed a six-year contract with Siemens of Germany for an upgrade and technical input across the value chain to generate up to 25, 000 MW in three phases. The Buhari administration accuses previous administrations – Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan’s of wasting Nigerian resources on the power sector without results and the Jonathan administration of mismanaging the privatization process. It is alleged that over $6.8 trillion has been spent on Nigeria’s power sector since 1999. Meanwhile, the country remains literally in darkness. Many companies have had to relocate from Nigeria. Businesses, homes and families are compelled to provide their own electricity. The cost of diesel is high. Many lives have been lost to generator explosions. There are communities in Nigeria that have not seen electricity for seven years, simply because they are not connected to the national grid! The House of Representatives has asked President Buhari to declare a state of emergency in the electricity sector. The standard response has been to blame either the former ruling party, the PDP (1999- 2015) or the Jonathan privatization process or more specifically, the power distribution companies. In 2017, the Buhari government mooted the idea of probing the power sector from 1999- 2015. 

Needless politicking, sentiments and emotions have proven to be the bane of the electricity sector in Nigeria. Every Minister of Power since 1999 has always been ready with an excuse for inefficiency.  Babatunde Fashola, as Buhari’s Minister of Power, Works and Housing heaped the blame on the privatization process. Buhari’s NERC blames the DISCOs and even threatened to revoke their licences. This blame game continued last week with Fashola’s successor as Minister of Power, Engr. Saleh Mamman threatening that the DISCOs are the problem of the electricity value-chain and if they do not sit up, their licences will be revoked. He says he has even sent a memo to the Federal Executive Council to that effect. The FEC should ignore his memo. Mamman doesn’t sound like he knows what he is talking about. Ignorance is bad in itself, but the kind of tripodal ignorance that has been demonstrated by the current Minister of Power is curious! 

It seems to me that government needs to go beyond scapegoating, passing the buck, sentiments and politics, to address fundamental problems of the electricity sector, and cross-cutting issues in the entire value chain. There are consequential steps that should have been taken after the privatization exercise of 2013/2014 to deepen the transition process away from PHCN which the current administration has conveniently ignored. This is in part responsible for the distortions within the entire value chain. If the Minister of Power does not know what these are, he should consult the Bureau for Public Enterprises, the National Electricity Regulatory Commission and the Vice President’s Office which oversees the National Council on Privatization.  If he does not trust anyone in those departments, let him talk to Nasir el-Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State who as Director General of BPE, at the time of the commencement of reforms in that sector can tell the story much better -  that is, if he doesn’t choose to play convenient politics. 

If el-Rufai plays politics with the matter, let him talk to Dr. Lanre Babalola and Bola Onagoruwa. For example, the Gas Production and supplies to the various Power Plants are still largely dependent on NGC/NNPC which are government-controlled and as usual cannot respond to the 24 hours need of the privatised power generating plants. Unfortunately, in the last 5 years, this critical component of the value chain of power generation has not been resolved by President Buhari’s Government. Gas Production and supplies is yet to be privatised and NNPC/FGN remain the major bureaucratic problem for the gas-based electricity generating investors. Even the gas price in USD has not been allowed to be translated into appropriate naira tariff for the entire value chain of electricity supplies.

Recently we read in the media, that the Federal Government has granted sovereign guarantee to NNPC to build gas pipeline from Ajaokuta to Kano (AKK) for $2.8 billion, with about two captive gas-powered generating plants along the gas pipeline. But any discerning observer of the industry will ask whether this AKK should be a priority now, when you can deploy the $2.8 billion to solve the immediate problems of the stranded 10 gas-powered generating plants in the hands of NIPP/Niger Delta Power Holding Company. It is certain that this $2.8 Billion project will not be completed in the next 3-4 years and may never get sufficient gas to reach Abuja or Kano, when even Kaduna refinery built since 1989 with Crude Pipeline from Escravos has never gotten enough to refine Nigeria’s export crude on a daily basis. These are the issues each of the Ministers has refused to look into, focussing instead on chasing the DISCOS as the weeping child.

Is Minister Mamman aware at all of the existence of 10 power plants that are being managed by the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC), a limited liability company that is managed by public officers? The Minister of Power was quoted as saying Nigeria now has a generating capacity of 13, 000 MW in 2020. In 2013, Nigeria had a generating capacity of 12, 910 MW. What has been added since 2015? Even if 7000 MW is produced today, can TCN with its 330KVA/132KVA transmit that much to all the DISCOS? The answer is capital NO. The Minister pretends not to know that TCN is the weakest link between the GENCOs and DISCOs. The Minister should show us how much has gone into 330KVA/132KVA in the last 5 years across Nigeria. 

The Federal Government could have sold ten more power plants to increase capacity. It has not done so. Even then, the so-called claim of 13, 000 MW is at best academic and fictitious. Minister Mamman claims that the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has a capacity to transmit 7, 000 MW but it actually transmits about 5, 000 MW out of which the DISCOs can only take about 3, 000MW. There is shortage of electricity in the country and so, high demand for limited supply has driven up prices and yet government is insisting on the withdrawal of subsidy and a hike in electricity tariffs by April 1. I don’t get it.  No wonder all the private sectors, industrial and commercial houses generate electricity at about 70-85 Naira per kilowatt hour for themselves, but this has disenabled them from competing with other manufacturers around the world. This is one of the major reasons that the private sector must be allowed to take over the entire value chain of the electricity industry. Since 2015 that Yola DISCO has been returned to the Federal Government, it will interest the general public to hear from the Minister, how much investment in 132KVA, 33KVA and 11KVA infrastructure has been provided in the entire North East that Yola DISCO covers.

The Buhari government simply needs to move beyond politics and sentiments. If President Buhari succeeds in solving the electricity supply conundrum in Nigeria, that alone will be enough legacy for his administration. He should listen only to those who know. Engr. Saleh Mamman has absolutely no clue. I hope the Minister knows he is a member of the National Council on Privatisation and therefore cannot take any policy decision without NCP approval first.   

 Oba Abdulrasheed Adewale Akanbi, Oluwo of Iwo

Over the weekend, the Yoruba community in the South Western part of Nigeria was treated to the shocking news of a fight that broke out between two traditional rulers at an arranged peace meeting in Osogbo, Osun State, with one traditional ruler punching another in the face and the neck, sending the beaten traditional ruler to the hospital. The appropriate title of the duel is: Oba Abdulrasheed Adewale Akanbi, Oluwo of Iwo vs. Oba Dhirulahi Akinropo, the Agbowu of Ogbagbaa. The winner was the Oluwo of Iwo – he gave the Agbowu a few blows to the face and the neck, and that one had to be taken to hospital, to be treated for the Technical Knock Out (TKO) that he got in the very first round of the fight. The only thing to note is that this was not a commercial boxing tournament, and so, everyone is surprised that traditional rulers would resort to fistfights at a meeting. 

The meeting in question was called by the Assistant Inspector General of Police in charge of Zone XI, Bashir Makama.  In attendance were monarchs from Iwo, Olaoluwa and Ayedare communities of Osun State to resolve a lingering dispute over the ownership and sale of communal land. The Oluwo of Iwo, the paramount ruler of the area had petitioned the Nigeria Police much earlier that other traditional rulers were encroaching on and selling land that belongs legitimately to his domain and he would not accept that. Leye Oyebade, Makama’s predecessor as AIG Zone XI had called meetings of the traditional rulers to resolve the matter, but he could not find a solution before he was posted out of the Zone. AIG Makama chose to continue where his predecessor stopped. The Police should be commended for their peace-making moves and for exploring the option of alternative dispute resolution in Osun State. Both Oyebade and Makama meant well. 

At the meeting called by AIG Makama however, the dialogue degenerated into chaos. The Oluwo of Iwo claims that the Agbowu of Ogbasgba in the course of the meeting called him “a mad man” and pointed his staff of office at him. He felt he needed to teach the colleague-Oba a lesson, so he landed some blows on him. He has not denied this, except to insist that he acted in self-defence and in recorded videos now being widely circulated, the Oluwo of Iwo has rained further abuse on the Agbowu, with a threat that he is not yet done with him. The Agbowu has not denied being beaten. He sustained injury - a cut to his neck -  and had to be taken to hospital for trauma treatment. Asked why he did not fight back and inflict his own injury, the Agbowu in an interview with The Punch newspaper claims that having been on the throne for 24 years and fully seized of the fact that being a traditional ruler requires a certain level of decorum, there was no way he could have responded in kind. This is a subtle reference to the fact that the Oluwo of Iwo is a relatively younger traditional ruler who has not spent as many seasons on the throne, but some other persons may well hold the view that the Agbowu’s response is cowardly. He got pummeled and he could not stand up for himself! He had to be rescued from “the Mike Tyson” fists of the Oluwo of Iwo by AIG Makama.

The only thing that the Agbowu of Ogbaagba has going for him however, is that whereas he may have been assaulted in the presence of the Nigeria Police, he is the winner of the duel with the Oluwo of Iwo in the court of public opinion. Many commentators are alarmed that a traditional ruler would descend to the level of a scuffle. In protest and to mock the Oluwo of Iwo, they have since re-named him the “Fesegbade of Iwo” (that is, he who grabs the throne with a fistfight), or “Alaluwo of Iwo” (that is, the killer-pugilist of Iwo). These are no compliments. The conclusion is that the Oluwo of Iwo is the aggressor in the matter even if he has tried to present it as a case of “two-fighting.” He claims the other Oba called him a “mad man” and pointed his staff of office in his direction. There were 28 other traditional rulers in attendance. The AIG Zone XI was there. The Commissioner for Chieftaincy and Local Government Affairs representing the state government was also there. Nobody has reported that the Agbowu of Ogbaagba assaulted the traditional ruler of Iwo. Every other commentator has condemned the “Mike Tyson” of Iwo. Mike Tyson is a licensed boxer. Professional boxers are not allowed to fight on the streets, outside the ring. Mike Tyson at the height of his career broke the rule more than twice, in 1988 against Mitch “Blood” Green, and in 2002, against Lennox Lewis, both in pre-match encounters. Still, Tyson was condemned for his wrong conduct. The Telu I (or Emir?) of Iwo, as the Oluwo of Iwo is otherwise known, is neither a professional boxer nor was he confronting another boxer, this matter before us is a case of a traditional ruler behaving very badly.  

The Oluwo committed multiple offences in the presence of constituted authority: the police and the state government as represented by the Local Government Chairman, the Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs and other state officials.  AIG Makama should have ordered his arrest on the spot, for assault, disruption of public peace and for constituting himself into a public nuisance. The Osun State Government is yet to issue the Oluwo of Iwo a query. He should get a query forthwith from the same authorities that gave him his staff of office. The last time I checked, no traditional ruler in Nigeria is covered by the law on immunity in the Nigerian Constitution. Any traditional ruler that chooses to behave in an unruly or irresponsible, law-breaking manner has as much right as a common felon. I am surprised that the “Mike Tyson of Iwo” with his gross misconduct in the presence of so many witnesses, is still walking free. He should be writing statements at a police station! The Agbowu of Ogbaagba who is the aggrieved party in this matter should also stop being spineless. He should report the assault on his person at the police station! He got a cut on his neck. What if the Mike Tyson of Iwo had cracked his skull open? 

The people of Iwo have also been disturbingly silent. Is Iwo Olodo Oba, no longer the the land of valiant people? Traditional rulers in Africa derive their legitimacy from the people they represent. They sustain in modern times, traditional and primordial connections that define the people’s cultural authenticity. It is not for nothing that they are regarded as the spiritual and political heads of their communities, second only to the gods in the people’s cosmogonic thought-process. In some communities, traditional rulers are in fact regarded as the direct representatives of the gods, and hence, they are expected to be super-human, more discerning, wiser, and to act as the court of last resort for the community. There is, therefore, in other words, an unwritten code of conduct for traditional rulers especially in the South West of Nigeria. This code of conduct does not accommodate roguish behavior.  It frowns upon any kind of criminality on the stool and goes further to prescribe punishment for any traditional ruler who subverts the community’s interest. 

The checks and balances in the traditional kingship system were so strong at a time, any errant traditional ruler was required to commit suicide upon the say-so of the kingmakers, or abdicate the throne.  A rogue traditional ruler could in fact be banished from the community. The intrusion of colonial rule and its disruptive impact disoriented traditional systems, and in post-colonial Africa, the new colonialists have further abbreviated traditional authority. Nonetheless, traditional rulers as icons and symbols or relics, are still expected to conduct themselves like gods among men. When they err, they violate tradition and disgrace their people. The Mike Tyson of Iwo should be reminded that whereas he claims that he is protecting ancestral land, that does not give him the right to resort to self help and violence. One Yoruba king was once sentenced to death by hanging. In 2010, the then Deji of Akure was deposed for beating up his estranged wife. Oluwo should have a sense of history. His ancestors were dignified, sober and wise kings. He must not desecrate that throne!

Let this be said:  when this “Mike Tyson” ascended the throne of Iwo, there was a lot of excitement. The people of Iwo like many other communities in the South West have been appointing as traditional rulers, over the years, young, educated, men who can project the community and speak the language of a new world. Telu I ‘s predecessor was a teacher and an academic. He brought dignity to the throne. When Akanbi showed up as the choice of the kingmakers, the belief was that given his cosmopolitan outlook, he would bring a new sass to Iwo kingdom. He had lived abroad. He sounded modernist and progressive. He even ascended the throne with a foreign wife, who was an exemplification of the modern outlook. Other Yoruba people thought Iwo had stepped up. But it didn’t take long before the conflict between the modern and the traditional began to unfold. In this regard, the current Oluwo of Iwo is an archetype. In times past, traditional rulers were chosen through divination, and the people believed and accepted the pronouncement of the fathers of secrets. These days, the palm nuts of Orunmila have also modernized. The divining tray clearly knows the difference between the Naira and the Dollar or Euro. 

I may not be able to push this further, but I am concerned that there is now in the South West, an emergent generation of traditional rulers who are young and educated but who by their conduct seem totally unprepared for the assignment that they have taken up.  They are expected to be the people’s traditional fathers, but they behave publicly like children who still need to be guided. They violate traditional norms and values and seem to have absolutely no understanding of the dignity of the thrones that they occupy. An average king in Yorubaland was revered but how can anyone adore these new generation Obas who go to parties and clubs every week. They fight on the streets. They hustle with their own subjects over everything. We are in the age of “oshomo” kings (kings who go to parties and chase women openly). They dance and wine like plebeians. They shuttle from one hotel to the other and engage in “gbas gbos” conduct that is unbecoming of the exalted office that they occupy. 

There are important national and local issues that they can comment upon but they don’t: when they are not fighting on social media with an estranged wife like the Mike Tyson of Iwo, they are busy engaging in fistfights, again like the Oluwo of Iwo, who seems to have an anger management problem. Traditional rulers in the South West used to be among the most respected of their set in Nigeria. The late Ooni of Ife brought so much dignity to the throne, he built bridges across Nigeria. He and the late Emir of Kano were like Siamese twins. Ooni Okunade Sijuwade and Kano Emir, Ado Bayero were a stabilizing force in Nigeria. Ooni Sijuwade, Olubuse II similarly shared the same relationship and brotherhood with the Obi of Onitsha, the revered Obi Nnaemeka Achebe.  Across Nigeria, there are also other distinguished traditional rulers who act in line with the significance of their traditional mandate. The Alaafin of Oyo, Lamidi Adeyemi III, to cite a close example, was in fact an amateur, professional boxer. In more than 50 years on the throne, nobody has accused him of giving people cuts in their jaws and necks. He is a highly revered monarch, whose intellectual gifts and wisdom on the throne are exceptional. Young men can be admitted to the throne, these days, but perhaps the state governments that give them the staffs of office may need to organize training sessions for them, beyond the obviously compromised traditional induction in the aboriginal conclaves. 

I now return to the main issue that triggered the belligerence within the traditional community in Iwo, Osun State: land. The ownership, possession and alienation of land is a very sensitive and volatile matter in African communities. It formed the basis of the pre-colonial and post-colonial struggles in East and Central Africa from Kenya to Zimbabwe to Tanzania. Across Nigeria, control over land has also resulted in many conflicts and loss of lives and property as illustrated by the Tiv-Junkun riots, communal clashes between Ife and Modakeke, and between Umuleri and Uguleri, and the most recent violent confrontations between herders and farmers in the Middle Belt and the Southern parts of Nigeria. It is not a matter to be taken lightly. The Oluwo says other traditional rulers are selling land in his domain. Is he aware of the Land Use Act which vests land ownership in the trusteeship of the Governor? Is he also enlightened enough to know that any dispute over land is better resolved in the law courts, and not through self help or what is known among the Yoruba as “omo onile or ajagun gbale” pretensions? The people of Iwo expect him to be an enlightened king. Why does he serve them so badly? Trouble today, controversy tomorrow. And now he has added pugilism and street fight to his cocktail of incorrect conduct? He must be told that he endangers the same people he leads.  Nigeria cannot afford a rogue traditional, monarchical establishment with an unmerited sense of entitlement in all matters particular and general. 

In times past in Yorubaland, as recently as the 18^th and 19^th Century as Professor I. A. Akinjogbin tells us in his authoritative and unimpeachable research on the subject, Yoruba communities fought wars over every issue including the encroachment of farm lands, ego matters and sheer display of power and greed. In the century covered by Akinjogbin’s research, one traditional ruler inflicting injury on a rival traditional ruler could ignite sentiments that will catalyze a civil war. That other Yorubaland is not too far away. The king of Ogbagbaa in Osun State may not know how to pack a punch, but his people may not be as lenient. The Nigerian State at both Federal and state levels should therefore not treat the pugilism of the Oluwo of Iwo as one of those incidents. The relevant security agencies must dig deeper to forestall any kind of negative consequence.      

The biggest threat to our collective humanity today is not the suspected threat of a Third World War, but a corrosive, debilitating, murderous pathogen known as new Corona Virus. The fear of a World War III was fuelled by tensions and differences among key super powers dictating contemporary geo-politics notably: the US, China, Iran, Iraq, Israel, North Korea, South Korea and the entire Middle East. But while relationships with the world’s power axis will always have implications for global peace, security and stability, the biggest and the most urgent threat by far is the outbreak of a new strain of the Corona Virus, in Wuhan, China which has within a short space of one month shown the vulnerability of man, the conflict between man and biology, and the limitations of science in the face of an immediate, accidental, unforeseeable, pathogenic onslaught. 

The first case of Corona Virus was reported just before the Chinese Lunar New Year 2020 celebrations, and since then, the new virus has defied both man and science. On January 28, the highest number of reported cases was reported, but by Monday, February 10, that had jumped exponentially to 97 casualties per day and total cases in excess of 40, 000, with 908 persons reported dead. The statistics and the sero-prevalence rate seem unprecedented, far worse than the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome of 2003 which claimed 774 lives. The World Health Organization has classified the new Corona Virus as a public health emergency of international concern, a delicate, diplomatic phrasing which barely stops short of declaring the nCoV-2019, as it is otherwise known, a global pandemic - considering the fact that mainland China, especially Wuhan, a city of 11 million people and the Hubei province in general, remain the epicenter – 99% of reported cases are in mainland China and out of the total number of deaths, only two have occurred outside China.

The Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) has commended China for its efforts at prevention and containment, even if the Politburo, the highest political body in China has had to express regrets for “failing” the people. The truth is: China is overwhelmed. Businesses have been affected, the stock market is down, lives are threatened, over 40 million people are in quarantine. China is engaging the world as the epicenter of a crisis, the global economy is likely to be affected given China’s strategic importance, and yet nobody knows when the Corona virus will ease off, or when scientists will find a cure. It is not only China that is at risk, it is the entire world. Our civilization is under threat and of course, the tragedy is man-made.  These are the cold, uncomfortable facts as at the time of this writing. The Corona Virus has brought the entire world to the precipice of uncertainty and disaster.  It reminds us collectively of our mortality and the common humanity and vulnerability that we share. 

Globalization turned the world into a small village, technology erased distances, but in the face of a global scourge like new Corona Virus, the world has turned into a much smaller village. Most of the people and countries that are taking precautions against Corona Virus don’t even know where Wuhan is on the map.  Some people ate snake meat or is it Pangolin or bat meat in Wuhan and they got infected with a virus – animal to man transmission, which has now spread to over 27 countries and mutated as a deadly human-to-human communicable disease. China which is ordinarily regarded as a major superpower has suddenly become a pariah nation. Countries have issued travel alerts to their citizens: do not go to China, and those who are in China are being evacuated and whoever arrives from China is immediately quarantined for two weeks. 

This is the same China that only recently engaged the United States in a trade war. The same China is now the diseased nation that nobody wants to touch. Imports from China have been suspended. Trips to China have been put on hold. China’s tourism industry is bound to suffer. Who wants to go to a country where a virus is on rampage, and the air is polluted? It is not for nothing that the media in Europe has dubbed the Corona Virus, the China Virus – an average Chinese citizen would not like that - but the truth is that the new Corona Virus wears the toga of a nationality. Before it, there was the Swine flu (2009), Polio (2014), Zika (2016), Ebola (2014, 2019) but it is the new Corona Virus that has obtained a national passport and an identification tag of notorious universal recognition. This may have translated into racist conclusions about Chinese identity and cuisine. I have heard allegations that the Chinese eat anything and everything, including animals that are considered a taboo in many cultures – Bats? Cockroaches? Rats? Snakes? Millipedes and centipedes? Monkeys? Pangolin? E-eeish!  It is said that the Chinese have brought this latest biological dissonance upon humanity because of their unusual culinary taste. I know people who have simply opted to stay away from anything Chinese in the meantime, until there is some certainty about what exactly is going on.  I wanted to order food from a Chinese Restaurant the other day. I was quietly reminded of Corona Virus. I had no option but to restrain my palate. I wanted Chinese balm, a popular product in Nigeria, a few days later. I was also advised to be careful. I ignored that advice. The labelling of everything Chinese as an item crowned by a virus is exaggerated and overblown. But as Nigerians would say in pidgin English: who wan die?  

This is probably why every country and institution is taking precautions. The United Kingdom, Australia, South Korea, Singapore and New Zealand have had cause to evacuate their citizens from China. Airlines including FinnAir, American Airlines, United, Cathay Pacific, Air India, Ethiopian Airlines, British Airways, Air Asia, and Lufthansa have either stopped flights to China or reduced their Chinese operations by 90%.  The effect is that supply chains have been disrupted with consequences for trade performance. The global economy is bound to slow down in the long run if this situation persists. But what is perhaps more relevant to us should be this: How prepared is Africa and particularly Nigeria? I don’t think Africa is prepared at all, and we are likely to be worst hit should the virus make an effective landing in our continent. 

For now across Africa, we have only heard of suspected cases:  in Ghana where there were two suspected cases involving a Chinese and an Argentine who returned from China, but the result was negative in both cases. Suspected cases in Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya and Botswana have also proven negative. The only reported case of infection involving an African is that of a Cameroonian student living in Wuhan. Kenya has taken steps to evacuate its students in China. Mozambique has suspended its visa on arrival policy.  Africa and South America seem insulated from the scourge so far. But for how much longer? The Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday was extended, in the face of the outbreak of the virus, but that holiday ended yesterday, Monday, February 10. Using that as guide, if there was any Chinese living in Africa or doing business in Africa, he or she is likely to return to base after the holiday. In the last decade or more, Sino-African relationship has grown tremendously, China seeking to fill a vacuum inadvertently created by the EU and the United States, has increased its scope of influence in Africa through friendly loans, investments and cultural outreach. It is not an accident that African leaders at the just concluded 33^rd AU Heads of State Summit in Addis Ababa expressed solidarity with China! The Chinese presence in Africa is unmistakable and it is quite pronounced in a country like Nigeria where the Chinese are involved in significant sectors of the economy including oil and gas, telecommunications, manufacturing, infrastructure, SMEs and retail trade. This week, all the Chinese who went home on holiday will start returning one after the other. 

When the story of the Corona Virus broke, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) was most unusually proactive, which I think is commendable. The Federal Ministry of Health quickly followed suit, to educate Nigerians about the threat of the Corona Virus. Preventive guidelines were announced, and a travel advisory was issued. This is indeed commendable, even if the efforts were not translated into local, indigenous languages, that is - the languages of the majority of Nigerians.  The campaign has thus far been so elitist and restricted. In due course, the Nigerian authorities further announced that the Federal Government had established eight isolation centres as follows:  in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and seven states of the Federation - Lagos, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Enugu, Delta, Cross River and Kano. The problem is that nobody knows exactly where these isolation centres are located. 

The relevant authorities tell us that in preparing for the Corona Virus which has not yet been reported in Nigeria, they are relying on the protocols and infrastructure already put in place in 2014 to combat the Ebola Virus. In 2014, Nigeria was confronted with the Ebola Virus crisis, introduced to the country by a traveler from Liberia who came to Nigeria to seek spiritual cure for Ebola. Knowledge and experience can definitely prove useful in everything including a biological and pharmaceutical crisis such as Corona Virus. But has Nigeria done enough or is Nigeria prepared? I don’t think so. There is definitely no evidence that we have enough medical counter-measures to protect the medical and public health personnel who are supposed to man our ports. A gentleman who just returned from Chicago reported on live television and I have no cause to doubt him, that the situation at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport in Lagos, to cite a specific example, is chaotic and below standard practice.  Government officials pretend to check for high temperature and other symptoms but they are not protected. Nigeria has not made any provision for medical counter measures. Nigeria is sending medical personnel and Ministry officials to the ports to put them at risk. Until we have another case of Stella Adadevoh, like Li Weliang, the Chinese whistleblower who paid the supreme price for Corona Virus, the Nigerian government is not likely to wake up. That is unacceptable. 

The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and the Federal Ministry of Health and state governments have to do a lot more. I will comment on the latter.  As at this moment, only three states – Lagos, Ebonyi and Ogun out of the 36 states of the Federation would seem to have shown interest in the Corona Virus prevention campaign. We expect every state of the Federation, close as they are to the grassroots, to take up the campaign and inform the populace appropriately.  At the national level, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and the Federal Ministry of Health will also need to address what has become around the subject of Corona Virus, an “infodemic crisis” – that is the crisis of conspiracy theories and misinformation and hazardous false information. Is the Corona Virus  a biological weapon?. Really? Is it a strategy by big pharmaceutical companies to enlarge market and increase profit? President Donald Trump and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have also been linked to the conspiracy. Does that make sense? We have also been told that eating garlic or drinking a bleach concoction can help prevent a Corona Virus infection. Is that true? The Nigerian agencies are yet to respond to this. They should. They should take the additional step of addressing the spiritual question which determines everything in Nigeria from politics to business. Is Corona Virus a spiritual affliction or biology gone awry? If care is not taken, Nigerian shamanists, prophets, traditionalists and pastors will soon take advantage of the uncertainty to claim that they had predicted the occurrence of the virus and that, indeed they have the solution. Government should immediately arrest anyone who mouths such idiocy. Our only hope is that the Corona Virus will never make its way here, but as the Boys Scouts motto states, we should “Be Prepared”. The bad news is that there is no effective treatment for the virus. And a worse virus may soon show up, leaving humanity effectively at the mercy of disease and the environment. 

When Asisat Oshoala, the Super Falcons and Barcelona Ferminino striker was declared winner of the African Women’s Footballer of the Year, 2019, a few weeks ago, the big concern was that her own compatriots who sat on the Confederation of Africa Football judges panel refused to vote for her. Every single one of them voted for an outsider. They didn’t consider their own compatriot good enough. I have addressed this matter at length in a piece titled “The Betrayal of Asisat Oshoala,” (This Day, back page, January 14). 

At the time, Ms. Oshoala lost her cool momentarily and tried to engage her critics which was absolutely unnecessary. But the best response that she has offered, and the one that is relevant, is how, after returning to her club in Europe, she has been putting up such sterling performance that further confirms her status as a super star on the pitch. 

In January, she won the Africa Football Women’s Player of the year to equal the record of fellow Nigerian Perpetua Nkwocha. With her current performance, Oshoala does not want to just equal existing record, she wants to break the record in African Women’s Football.  After winning the CAF award in January she reportedly said: “…I want to create my own history and not just equal someone else’s record – I’m going to give my best to create mine.” She is doing just that right now. Five-time winner of the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, best player at the 2014 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup, winner of the BBC Footballer of the Year, 2015, Chinese Women’s Super League Top Scorer, 2017, she scored a brace in Barcelona’s 10–1 trouncing and humiliation of Real Sociedad in the Spanish Women’s League Super Cup Final on February 9, 2020. Loaned to Barcelona from China in January 2019, and later offered a permanent transfer, Asisat Oshoala has been a formidable and result-oriented member of the Barca line up and one of its most valuable players.

On January 11, 2020, four days after the CAF awards, Oshoala scored four goals in a 6-0 win against CD Tacon. She has been consistent since then. Whoever has any doubt about her achievements and quality may end up voting for her someday soon. Congratulations Asisat. Keep shooting. Keep shining. 

ON January 24, at the Federal High Court in Ilorin sitting over the matter of Asa Investment vs. Attorney General of Kwara State, counsel representing the plaintiff, in this case the Olusola Saraki family, informed the court that both the family and the state government have agreed to “an amicable out-of-court settlement.”  At a previous sitting, the Court had advised that this option should be explored, in the interest of peace, so obviously both feuding parties heeded the advice of the Court. Counsel to the Saraki family confirmed in open court that the State Government had in fact written a letter to the Sarakis, and that a meeting had been scheduled for January 27. The presiding judge commended both parties and adjourned the case till March 2, 2020, for a report on the “amicable out-of-court settlement”. There is nothing wrong in the Court’s proposal, and it is most reasonable that the parties in the dispute have agreed to settle the matter of the “legality or illegality” of the possession/ownership of the stretch of land known as “Ile Arugbo” amicably. An amicable settlement simply means what it suggests: the resolution of a dispute or a disagreement before or after court action, in a friendly manner and in an atmosphere devoid of conflict or rancor. It is an alternative dispute resolution mechanism, involving mediation and conciliation. It saves time, and in a potentially volatile matter such as the conflict between the Olusola Saraki family and the Kwara State Government, heavy politicized as it is, the resort to amicable settlement should bring the matter to a happy ending for all concerned: a little face-saving here, doing the right thing there and locking out the mischief-makers who could exploit the matter to cause havoc and disrupt public peace- this should ensure that all ends well indeed. 

What are the facts of the case? On January 2, 2020, the Kwara State Government deployed a team of state officials at 4 am, to take possession of a plot of land known as Plots 1, 3, and 5 along Ilofa road, Ilorin, and displace whoever is occupying the said stretch of land. The occupant of the land is the Olusola Saraki family, which allegedly took possession of the land, under the name of Asa Investment, and subsequently put the land to use as a waiting shed for visitors and a holding place for political meetings. 

A shade or shelter on the land was reportedly demolished. The position of the state government was that the land, which adjoins the State Secretariat is meant for the building of a parking lot and a state civil service clinic and that it had been illegally acquired by the late Dr. Olusola Saraki when his son, Dr. Bukola Saraki was Governor of Kwara State in 2005. The State Government insisted that it has no record that the Sarakis ever paid for the land, or were issued a Certificate of Occupancy, or that any documentation was done on the land beyond a letter of application for right of occupancy which required the claimants to the land to pay a certain sum which was never paid. The State Government added that it was determined to take over the land, because it belongs to the people, and then put it to use in the public interest as originally intended. We were further informed that the state Government has the backing of a State House of Assembly Resolution and the relevant laws on Land Use.      

The Saraki family kicked. Dr. Bukola Saraki, eldest child of Dr. Olusola Saraki, Governor of Kwara State, 2003-2011, and Senate President, 2015-2019, protested that the demolition and revocation of access to the plots of land known as Ile Arugbo was an assault on his father’s legacy, an attempt at vengeance and a deliberate attempt to embarrass the Saraki family.  He pointed out that a bill had also been initiated by Governor Abdulrazaq to change the name of the state university which had been named after his father, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki. He told Governor Abdulrazaq that he had “crossed the line” and that he must be “delusional” to think that his will be the last administration in Kwara State, or that his ‘act of vengeance” will stand. Senator Bukola Saraki was obviously angry.  He told the State Governor that he was also being victimized: “Perhaps I should let it be known that if Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq thinks he is taking all these actions to get at me, he is only deceiving himself. There is no basis for competition between us. Our paths cannot cross because the status that he is struggling to attain, Almighty Allah has given it to me many years before now. I became Governor 16 years before him and served out my constitutional limit of eight years.” Thus, everything went haywire in due course. 

When Senator Saraki referred to “all these actions”, he was also probably referring to the fact that the state government had also taken away from him an Alimi Chalet property in Ilorin GRA which was said to be a government property which he, Bukola Saraki, acquired illegally. And the fact that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) investigating his tenure as Governor, with the alleged co-operation of the Kwara State Government, and the endorsement of the APC-run Federal Government had also attached his properties in Ilorin and Lagos.  But the biggest action was the displacement of the Saraki hold on Kwara State politics in the 2019 general elections. Bukola Saraki who had inherited his father’s political influence in Kwara State, failed to sustain it in 2019. His candidates were outsmarted, out-rigged and beaten in the 2019 general elections in the state. He himself was chased out of the town literally and symbolically as the people chanted “O too ge” – a Yoruba phrase that means “Enough is Enough”, in reality an APC-invented, propagandized assault on the Saraki legacy in Kwara state politics. For decades, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, a medical doctor turned politician and statesman held Kwara State politics in his grips. As Senate Majority Leader in the Second Republic, he was the ally of Northern Nigerian politicians, who helped to hold Kwara State and parts of the North Central against the overwhelming politics of the Awoists in the South West who saw the politics of Kwara state as an enactment of the Yoruba-Hausa Fulani rivalry of the 19^th century. 

Indeed, in the Second Republic, the Unity Party of Nigeria, Awolowo’s party, managed to assert itself through the impact and influence of JS Olawoyin in Kwara politics, but it wasn’t until 1983 that the Awoists had a foot in the door through Chief Cornelius Adebayo who was civilian Governor for a short period of three months (October – December, 2003). The most dominant force in Kwara politics was unarguably Senator Abubakar Olusola Saraki, who with the return to civilian rule in 1999 was more than amply rewarded for his alignment with the politics of the North. He became the Godfather of Kwara politics. He was a great tactician and strategist who pitched his tent with the people. He understood the dynamics of power and he used that to the fullest extent.  He had allies in every part of the country, in the media especially and among the grassroots who worshipped him literally. I mean, they adored him. He installed Mohammed Lawal as Governor in 1999. When Lawal tried to assert himself and disobey the now fully established Godfather, Saraki replaced him in 2003.  He installed his own son, Bukola Saraki as Governor in 2003. Saraki, the son, served for two terms, by which time he had become a political juggernaut in his own right. When he completed his second tenure in 2011, he had become strong enough to install his own protégé as Governor. He defied his father, and emerged as the new Godfather of Kwara politics.        

In 2014/2015, Dr. Bukola Saraki further helped to sabotage the Goodluck Jonathan government when he and others became the arrow-head of a new PDP, (n-PDP), as it was called, and helped to form what is today known as the All Progressives Congress (APC). He dumped the PDP and joined the APC. He was clearly an architect of the APC plot against the PDP in 2015, but he would soon have issues with the APC when he outsmarted the party leaders to grab the Senate Presidency through his own machinations. He practically ran an anti-APC Senate and before the 2019 general elections, he ended up in the same PDP that he left in 2014. He supported Alhaji Atiku Abubakar against President Muhammadu Buhari. Whatever is happening in Kwara State is therefore, not so much about the legacy of Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, the father, but more about the politics of Dr. Bukola Saraki, the son. Saraki, the father would probably have played a different kind of politics. The son, in seeking to become the father, should be asked to study again “the wisdom of Silenus”: how does a son become the father?    

What has been played out in the politics of “Ile Arugbo” in Kwara State is very complex politics at various levels. One, the family level: this is being seen as an Abdulrazaq family vs. Saraki family affair. Perhaps. The Abdulrazaqs and the Sarakis have dominated Kwara politics and specifically Ilorin public space for decades. The current Governor’s father was active in the politics of the First Republic, but he was also highly regarded for another reason – for a professional reason. He is the first lawyer from the old Northern Nigeria. Alhaji Abdul Ganiyu Abdulrazaq emerged as Northern Nigeria’s first lawyer in 1957, and he happens to be Yoruba after Sapara Williams, the first Yoruba-Nigerian lawyer who was called to the Bar in 1879, and Louis Mbanefo, the first Ibo lawyer who became a lawyer in 1937. In the North Central, the Abdulrazaqs have maintained the path of educational achievement and distinction and have rarely politicized their identity. One of them, Khairat Abdulrazaq ended up as a Senator, even at a time the elderly Saraki held sway in Kwara politics. Her brother, Abdulrahman is now Governor. The emergence of an Abdulrazaq is seen as one rival family taking over from the other. This is not helped by the fact that there is serious politics within the Saraki family which dominated Ilorin and Kwara politics for decades and suppressed the likes of the Abdulrazaqs. Another Saraki, Gbemi Saraki, a member of the APC, a former Senator, who is now a Minister of State, also had to speak up to defend her father’s legacy.  But she sounded more like she was saying: “Brother Bukola, see what you have caused with your funny politics? I speak up because I don’t want you to destroy my father’s legacy.”  

Two, there is ego conflict involved: my-family-is-better-than-yours, my-children-are-better kind of primitive, African family politics. Three, there is also party politics in the matter. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the same party that Bukola Saraki abandoned and later went back to, wasted no time in attacking the APC government to say that Saraki is being persecuted because of the politics of 2019. The APC having engaged in an “O too ge” campaign seems determined to crush and rubbish the Saraki influence in Kwara state politics. Bad politics on all fronts. 

Still, the key issues are as follows: Was the Ile Arugbo land properly allocated and assigned?  Is there a document of title available which can establish ownership? Can anyone appropriate land, family or state-owned, without proper assignment and rights of alienation? Can the Governor of a State, by virtue of the Land Use Act, revoke right of occupancy, and re-assign land in overriding public interest? If the Sarakis have the title documents to the said land, is the onus on them or the state government to prove same? Can any citizen, no matter how highly placed, just take land as he or wishes, either for public or private interest without recourse to due process, as stated in extant law?  And can anyone, in good conscience, justify the problematic acquisition of public property under any  guise? And can the government retrieve such property? 

These are some of the issues to be determined by the courts were the case to proceed to full trial. But to take the legal option is to roil the waters of Kwara politics and encourage such politics of revenge that may survive generations. I commend the wisdom that has prevailed: from the courts to the feuding families to the state government and the community. Two days ago, Kwara APC Elders supported the peace and reconciliation moves initiated by the Court.  The Afonja Descendants Union of Ilorin also asked for peace. 

But whatever comes out of the January 27 meeting and any other mediation meeting and the eventual report to the Court on March 2, observers of this Kwara state elite-family-crisis can learn a few lessons from the narrative so far. One, government is very powerful. Whoever is in charge of government at any time can look at the books and use the rule book against anybody no matter how privileged or powerful. Governor Abdulrazaq has just shown the Sarakis how vulnerable they are individually and collectively, and in case they don’t agree, he just wants them to know that he is in charge. Point well made! Two, Nigerians take everything for granted. When they are in power, they do as they wish. In Kwara, we have just being told that due process is iportant. If you overlook due process, the day you are no longer powerful, you may be asked to give account and you could find yourself in very difficult circumstances. Who could ever have thought that a king would come to the throne in Kwara State who would disregard the Sarakis and call them to account? Third lesson: nothing lasts forever. You may be the king in the ring today and end up as the little end of the stick tomorrow. The laws of nature are ever so immutable.  

But there is one more lesson and that is for Governor Abdulrazaq of Kwara State: while it is not so difficult to figure out the party that may have eaten the humble pie in this case, he too should resist the temptation to “show” power. The Abdulrazaq government will not be judged on account of how it humiliated the Saraki family and turned “O too ge” into state policy. It will be judged on the basis of its actual performance.