we have in part 1 of this thesis, used the allegory of a man with a hunch to liken Nigeria’s needless push for ECOWAS intervention in the Nigerien coup militarily. We brought out historical perspectives to show why Nigeria is not a high moral ground to do so. The questions of self-determination and powers of the ECOWAS to militarily intervene in the internal affairs of member states were discussed. Let us now take our inquiry further.

MEANING OF INTERVENTION

In international law, the concept of “intervention” is tied to the notion of “interference”. It refers to when a State intervenes in the internal affairs of another State in violation of the latter’s sovereignty.

Such intervention is prohibited by the UN Charter under the principle of non-intervention, or non-interference, which posits that States should not “intervene in matters to preserve the independence of weaker states against the interventions and pressures of more powerful ones.” This concept is presented as the basis for international relations and therefore applies to interstate relations; but not to relief activities carried out by impartial humanitarian organizations.

A military intervention can open up new vistas for the reorganization of a political system. Military intervention by outside forces into the affairs of sovereign states is strictly limited in international law and diplomacy. The UN through its Security Council, has since the end of the Cold War begun to increasingly classify gross human rights violations in intrastate and sub-state armed conflicts as a threat to world peace and international security. It has thus mandated humanitarian interventions on the basis of a so-called responsibility to protect (R2P). Such peace-enforcement missions can easily trigger a regime change. Nowadays, these include substantial state-building efforts under external oversight; but rarely if ever, lead to successful democratization of a country.

FORMS OF INTERVENTION

In international relations, intervention is defined as using force to interfere in another Nation's affairs in a way that affects that Nation's control over its territory or population. Intervention can take on many forms, depending on the conflict or issue that occurs.

While military force is the most well-known and historically used form of intervention, there are several different ways that forcible intervention may be used. In fact, one of the most compelling is Economic intervention - which delays mostly with sanctions. There is also political interference.

TREATY-BASED CONSENT TO INTERVENTION

Russel Buchan and Nicholas Tsagourias (both Senior Lecturer and Professor respectively, of the University of Sheffield, wrote extensively on the issue of “Treaty-based consent”, regarding the powers of the AU and the ECOWAS to intervene militarily in the affairs of member states. In an article titled, “The Niger Coup and the Prospects of ECOWAS Military Intervention: An International Law Appraisal”, they wrote (and permit me to copiously quote) as follows:

“Since Niger is a member of ECOWAS and the African Union (AU), we first consider whether their constitutive treaties and related legal instruments empower them to intervene militarily within their member States. If this is the case, Niger would be deemed to have granted its consent to intervention by signing and ratifying the respective treaties or instruments.

“With regard to ECOWAS, the constitutive treaty signed in 1975 and revised in 1991 does not provide for such a right. In 1978, a Protocol on Non-Aggression was signed according to which ECOWAS member States vow not to use force or aggression against other member States. The 1981 Protocol Relating to the Mutual Assistance on Defence provides for collective self-defence in cases of armed threat or aggression directed against any ECOWAS member State (arts. 2 and 3). The 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security establishes a collective security system. It lays down the guiding principles of the mechanism (arts. 2 and 3) and lists the circumstances which set it in motion among which is the overthrow or attempted overthrow of a democratically elected government (art. 25).

“Among the organs established to implement ECOWAS’s peace and security mandate are the nine-member Mediation and Security Council and ECOMOG (ECOWAS’s Cease-Fire Monitoring Group). The Mediation and Security Council can make decisions by a two-thirds majority on all matters relating to peace and security including the authorization of all forms of intervention and the deployment of political and military missions (art. 10). ECOMOG consists of civilian and military standby forces charged, among others, with the following missions: peacekeeping and restoration of peace; humanitarian intervention in support of humanitarian disaster; enforcement of sanctions; peacebuilding, disarmament, and demobilization; policing activities; and any other operations as may be mandated by the Mediation and Security Council (art. 22).

“It follows that ECOWAS has the power to intervene militarily in a member State where a democratically elected government is overthrown. Niger has signed and ratified the above instruments and therefore has consented to such intervention. Consequently, ECOWAS’s threat to use force is lawful because it is based on a treaty right.

“Any decision to actually use force should be taken by the Mediation and Security Council with the requisite majority. However, as noted earlier, there is opposition to such a course of action. If ECOWAS or certain member States acting on its behalf were to use force to restore the previous government in contravention of the voting requirements, the action would be unlawful. The stalemate could be overcome by seeking SC authorization under Article 53(1) of the UN Charter. If the SC authorized ECOWAS or any of its member States to use force to restore the deposed government, the action would be lawful.

“This raises the question of the relationship between ECOWAS and the SC. Article 52 of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security does not impose an obligation on ECOWAS to obtain SC authorization but only to inform the UN of any military intervention undertaken in accordance with the Protocol. The reason that such interventions are lawful is because member States have given their prior consent. However, if ECOWAS is unable to make such a decision due to disagreement among its member States, it can appeal to the SC. Moreover, SC authorization will bring into play Article 103 of the UN Charter according to which UN obligations prevail over all others.

“Regarding the AU, revised Article 4(h) of the AU’s Constitutive Act provides for the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity as well as a serious threat to legitimate order to restore peace and stability to the Member State of the Union upon the recommendation of the Peace and Security Council.

“Article 4(h) plays a dual role: it empowers the AU to intervene militarily within member States in cases where the internal legitimate order is threatened; and is also an expression of the consent of AU member States to intervention by the AU. Consequently, AU interventions do not require prior SC authorization but are lawful on the basis of treaty-based consent.

“There are however a number of issues that require further explanation. First, Article 4(h) justifies military intervention to protect the legitimate order against threats. The legitimate order may refer to the constitutional government regardless of whether it is democratic according to western liberal notions of democracy or the government that is in power, as the AU’s reluctance to act against the Gaddafi regime demonstrates. However, it is interpreted, it covers the case of Niger. Second, there is the question of whether Niger’s consent to intervention by becoming a member of the AU is perpetual or should be granted de novo. In our opinion, such consent granted in a constitutional treaty is perpetual until Niger withdraws from the AU. Third, there is the question of the relationship between ECOWAS and the AU regarding military intervention.

“ECOWAS, other African sub-regional organizations, and the AU form the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The relations between sub-regional organizations and the AU are characterized by the principle of subsidiarity and the principle of primacy of the AU and its institutions. The AU’s primacy is recognized in Article 16 of the Protocol Establishing the Peace and Security Council and the Memorandum of Understanding with regional communities. With regard to the AU, decisions to intervene are taken by the AU’s Peace and Security Council (PSC) on the basis of consensus or in the absence of consensus by a two-thirds majority (art. 8(13)). Under the Protocol Establishing the Peace and Security Council of the AU, the intervention is performed by the African Standby Force (ASF), which consists of contingents from AU regional economic communities including ECOWAS (arts. 4, 6, 7, and 13).

“This means that ECOWAS can appeal to the AU but the AU can also be seized of the matter of its own accord. The AU can authorize any member State or coalitions of States to use force to restore democracy. It can also authorize ECOWAS or ECOWAS member States to do so. These options are quite remote due to a reported lack of consensus within the AU on military action. If consensus is somehow achieved and the AU decides to intervene militarily by deploying the ASF, one issue that may arise is whether States opposed to the use of force should consent to their troops participating in the operation”.

What is clear from this seminar dissertation by the learned scholars is that both the ECOWAS and AU Member States must be consensually ad idem for such military deployment to take place. In the case of AU’s PSC, where there is failure to obtain a consensus (Art 16), at least two-third majority of members states must agree to such intervention (Art 8.13). For ECOWAS, under Art 10 of the 1981 Protocol, two-third majority must agree. This scenario is all lacking in the Nigerien power play. Many ECOWAS and AU member states are stringently against such military action. So, such a plan has collapsed like a pack of cards.

MANY REASONS NIGERIA, A HUNCHED BACK CRIPPLE SHOULD NEVER TRY TO LEAD A WAR OF ATTRITION

Nigeria is one of the most porous and territorially vulnerable countries in the world. With Niger Republic alone, seven of Nigeria’s states share common boundaries, to wit, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno. The saying is apt that he who brings an ant-infested piece of firewood into his house should not complain when he is obliged a visitation by a colony of feasting lizards. A war in Niger would simply open up our already gaping borders and lead to an ungovernable influx of refugees. Nigeria, a country already bloated and asphyxiating by an uncontrollable population of 224.4 million people as at 1st July, 2023 (by UN data projection), should not try out such a toxic experiment.

To invade Niger using ECOWAS as a façade and veneer will simply approximate to a declaration of war between Nigeria and Niger, a country whose proximity to Nigeria through seven states will surely be on the precipice. (To be continued).

Once upon a time, a cripple with a hunchback boasted about leading his people to war. He was warned to keep off because of his visible infirmity. He was asked how he would escape when the war broke out. He said it did not matter. He believed that since he was the king of his village and the neighbouring communities, he had the talisman to succeed. He underplayed his enormous physical challenges. That is Nigeria for you as an epigram.

The crippled hunchback or the hunch-backed cripple never reckoned with the wise words of Alexander the Great who once intoned, “I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion”.

Allegorically and metaphorically, Nigeria is the sheep attempting to lead the ECOWAS Communities which constitute the army of lions to an unholy war against Niger Republic. This poor country has done nothing wrong to Nigeria, or other ECOWAS States, but merely exercising her sovereignty within her territorial domain as she sees and deems fit. When did Nigeria become the regional Headmaster that whips other erring pupil countries to line?

What is Nigeria’s business with Niger, a sovereign country, when she is disfigured and limping, with her citizens scavenging for food from trash dumps? When did Nigeria become an adventurous knight Errant in shining armour, deodorizing the Augean stables of neighbouring countries? Where her citizens are daily being kidnapped and mauled down in cold blood in their homes, farms, markets, schools and workplaces by hunger, squalor, kidnappers, armed bandits, armed robbers and divisiveness, what is Nigeria’s locus standi? How does Nigeria seek to remove the speck in another country’s eye, when a log is deeply buried in her own eye? I do not know. Or, do you?

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES: WHY NIGERIA IS ERRING

No country ever intervened in Nigeria’s internal affairs throughout her locust years of misgovernance and successive military putsches. We had coups on 15^th January, 1966 (the Majors coup led by Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and Others). We were never harassed when on 28^th July, 1966, Military Officers in Nigeria carried out the counter coup known as the “July Rematch”, which was masterminded by Lt. Col. Murtala Mohammed and many Northern military officers such as Theophilus Danjuma, Joseph Akaha, Martin Adamu and others).  No country ever poke-nosed into our internal affairs when Nigeria was governed by a young military bachelor, 32 years old Yakubu Jack Gowon, who ruled Nigeria by military diktat for over 8 years (1967-1975). Nigeria was not invaded by ECOWAS or AU (then called OAU) when Col. Joseph Nanven Garba (a close associate of Gowon) announced on Federal Radio, the overthrow of Gowon who was actually attending the OAU Conference in Kampala, Uganda, and replacement with Murtala Mohammed, on 30^th July, 1975.  I did not hear about any revolt in neighbouring countries when Murtala Mohammed was assassinated during the Col. Buka Suka Dimka - led failed coup on 13^th February, 1976; and Olusegun Obasanjo replaced him and ruled Nigeria for over 3 years between 1976 and 1979.

I cannot remember ECOWAS or OAU having an emergency meeting to plan on how to invade Nigeria when lanky Muhammadu Buhari overthrew the democratically elected government of Alhaji Aliyu Shehu Usman Shagari, a former school headmaster, who was once described by an avid political commentator as having a cap longer than his achievements.

No country sought to teach Nigeria democracy when on 27th August, 1985, gap-toothed Ibrahim Babangida (“the evil genius”) led other military officers to overthrow the then excessively iron-handed and inhuman military dictator and recently ethnic warlord, Muhammadu Buhari.

When on 22^nd April, 1990, Major Gideon Gwaza Orkar failed in a bloody coup against maradonic Babangida and the coupist were promptly dislodged, arrested, “tried” and executed, I never heard any other county meddle into our internal affairs.

On 17^th November, 1993, when dark-googled, dwarfish, taciturn, but intelligent Sani Abacha shoved aside the interim government of business mogul and former UAC Chairman, Chief Ernest Shonekan, in a bloodless palace coup, I did not see any external intervention. I and others were led by Chief Gani Fawehinmi, SAN, SAM, who went to court on 10^th November, 1993, got the lame duck, fumbling, dawdling, groggy and crumbling “interim nonsense” declared illegal and unconstitutional by the courageous Justice Dolapo Akinsanya (of blessed memory; may her good soul rest in peace).

Even with Nigeria’s ever increasing challenges likened to Mounts Everest and Kilimanjaro, including those of  the “doctrine of necessity”, endemic corruption, parlous economy and recession; armed banditry; Boko haram; kidnappings; hunger, thirst, sorrow, tears, blood, melancholy, abject penury, maladministration and crass misgovernance, that have turned Nigeria virtually into a gruesome crime scene, no external country (not even powerful America and other western countries like China, Russia, EU, etc) have ever dared to invade us, or come to teach us how to run our tattered and battered country. So, what gives this government that is still struggling like a straight snake battling to wear beads on a non-existent waist the temerity and audacity to think it can lead ECOWAS to invade Niger and teach her leaders and people how to govern themselves, and run their affairs? I do not know. Or, do you?

THE NIGERIEN COUP AND THE RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION

On the fateful day of 26^th July, 2023, Niger, a poor West African nation known for its political instability, was once again thrust into turmoil as a coup d'état unfolded, shaking the very foundations of its young democracy. In a swift and audacious move, the country's presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum, igniting a chain of events that would redefine the nation's political landscape. The coup leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, promptly declared himself the head of a new military junta, casting a shadow of uncertainty over Niger's future. This marked the fifth time since its independence from France in 1960 that the nation had experienced a military coup, marking a disturbing trend that raised questions about the stability of democratic institutions in the region.

Presidential guard forces swiftly enacted measures that further consolidated their hold on power, including border closures, suspension of state institutions, and imposition of a curfew. The international community, including the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, quickly responded with condemnation. It denounced the coup as a grave violation of democratic principles and threatening military intervention. In order to tighten the noose on General Tchiani to release power, Nigeria promptly cut off her 150 megawatts of daily supply of electricity to Niger Republic. The Jibia-Magama border with Kastina State in Nigeria was promptly blockaded, thus crippling major socio-economic activities in Kastina State. There has been closure of land and air borders and suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS Member states and Niger, etc.

Both Burkina Faso and Mali have already made good their threat of solidarity with Niger by sending in their warplanes. ECOWAS has since suspended the three countries from its fold.

The leader of the military junta that seized power in the Niger Republic, Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, said last week that his country is not hungry for war, but will be ready to defend itself of necessary. Yes, he can say this legitimately because both defacto and dejure, he is the Head of State of his country, having seized the reins of power from a fumbling President, Mohamed Bazoum. Said he through Aljazeera:

“Neither the Army nor the people of Niger want war, but we will resist any manifestation of it”.

Tchiani noted that Member states of the ECOWAS do not unfortunately realise that Niger has become the key to containing the region from destabilization against the backdrop of increased terrorist activities.

Tchiani argued that sanctions imposed by the ECOWAS against his country were aimed at merely putting pressure o the rebels and not designed to finding a solution to the current impasse.

Tchiani also said that the rebels were not seeking to seize power in the country for the sake of it, rather, to find a solution that would meet the Nigerien people’s interests.

Some political pundits joked that this aggression and unusual passion and éclat with which Nigeria is leading the battle could be Tinubu’s way of getting back at Buhari who had said severally whilst in power, that he would gladly relocate to join his kins and kiths in Niger Republic if Nigerians worry or harass him after leaving office. Could this be the case? I do not know. Or, do you?

As tensions escalated, the stage has become set for what many have now dubbed the “2023 Nigerien crisis”.

ECOWAS AND ITS POWERS OF INTERVENTION

The Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), which decided to invade Niger to restore “democracy”, was established by the Treaty of Lagos on 28th May, 1975, when Yakubu Gowon was military Head of State. It was actually Gowon and Gnassigbe Eyadema of Togo that spear-headed its formation.

Principally, ECOWAS was established with the aims and objectives of promoting economic cooperation and integration. It aims to establish an economic union in West Africa in order to raise the living standards of its peoples, and to maintain and enhance economic stability, foster relations among member states, and contribute to the progress and development of the African continent.

The ECOWAS is made up of 15 members, vis, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, cote d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. ECOWAS Region spans an area of 5.2 million square kilometres, with a combined population of 424.34 million people, which is 3.4 percent of the habitable area around the entire world and 5.3 percent of world population.

At the regional arena, Article 4 of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty (2010), listed the independence of member states as the first Fundamental Principle in the following words:

“THE HIGH CONTRACTING PARTIES, in pursuit of the objectives stated in Article 3 of this Treaty, solemnly affirm and declare their adherence to the following principles: a) equality and inter-dependence of Member States”.

At the international arena, Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter (UN Charter) provides for the prohibition of threat or use of force in international relations thus:

“All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations”.

In all these objectives, nowhere was ECOWAS specifically permitted to declare war on another member state. It is true that when the December, 2016 presidential elections the tiny state of Gambia (population of only 12,777,168 people) were disputed, ECOWAS had managed to “restore democracy” by using the threat of military force; but without actually using direct physical violence. Amongst others, Gambia’s small size; the fact that it is land locked, surrounded by Senegal; and its lack of a strong military base to withstand the firepower of possible ECOWAS attack, had led to the coupists pre-emptively backing down without a single shot by the ECOWAS group. It is also true that both the UN Security Council had backed ECOWAS with some form of legitimacy for that intervention. This is unlike the present scenario in Niger Republic (with 27.202 million people), where world bodies and Nations outside ECOWAS have carefully distanced themselves); or at best, maintained some level of caution and neutrality. (To be continued).

....Directs Immediate Resolution of Disagreements with UAE on Emirate Airline, Visa Issuance

President Bola Tinubu on Thursday said African countries have a better chance of overcoming economic and security challenges by looking inward for solutions and walking the talk on all of its pledges and agreements.

President Tinubu stated this while receiving Letters of Credence from three envoys at the State House: Ambassador of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Mr. Awall Wagris Mohammed; Ambassador of the Republic of Cuba, Mrs. Miriam Morales Palmero, and Ambassador of United Arab Emirate, Salem Saeed Al-Shamsi.

In a side meeting with the Ambassador of Ethiopia, the President assured the envoy that Nigeria will continue to strengthen its ties with African countries in the areas of trade, security, and economic growth.

"Africans need to work for the progress of Africa. We should be able to resolve our internal problems, collectively. It requires a great commitment, but we must do that. No one can understand our people better than we do. Home grown solutions are better for all of us, and the remedies will last longer," he implored.

Mohammed congratulated the President for the historic decisions he has taken in the country, and the impact of the policies on the continent, assuring of his dedication to improve relations between Nigeria and Ethiopia.

In another meeting with Ambassador of Cuba, President Tinubu commended the small nation for excelling in the advancement of indigenous medical sciences and accessible health care at the grassroots, all while ensuring the stability of their surrounding region.

The President noted that Nigeria and Cuba share some cultural similarities that can be explored to improve the lives of citizens, especially in tourism and other economic sectors.

“We should collaborate more in science and technology, an area that will improve the lives of our people, particularly the youthful population Nigeria is so blessed with," President Tinubu told he envoy.

Receiving the UAE Ambassador, the President directed that issues affecting relations with the Emirates Airline, and issuance of visas to Nigerians should be “immediately’’ resolved, emphasizing that he stands prepared to “personally’’ intervene.

“We are a family with the UAE, we only live in separate rooms, but we are in the same house. We should look at the issues as a family problem, and resolve it amicably. As you know in every family, there are peculiarities. You can have an erring son, or daughter, but we must work together. We need to agree on core aviation and immigration issues," the President stated.

The Ambassador of UAE said he already sees himself as a “Nigerian’’ considering the historical antecedents of the country, its long-standing leadership role in Africa, and its reputation for hospitality to strangers.

"Since I arrived in the country, I have been working on 24 agreements. We are getting somewhere. These are small issues, all within a family, and they will be resolved. I am grateful to be here in Nigeria. I am also very grateful to meet His Excellency, President Tinubu, who is a great leader in Nigeria, and Africa. Please accept me as a Nigerian and consider me a member of your team," he appealed.

Ajuri Ngelale

Special Adviser to the President

(Media & Publicity)

The Partners and management of TEMPLARS wish to announce that a Senior Partner at the Firm and the immediate past President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Mr. Olumide Akpata, has formally informed the Firm of his decision to participate in active politics.

1. Sometime in 1996, after honing my skills in the Law Firm of Dr. Mudiaga Odje & Co. I took a huge leap of faith and relocated from Warri, Delta State to Lagos State, where I teamed up with my cousin, Oghogho Akpata, who had just set up the Law Firm, TEMPLARS.

2. From 1996 to date, I have worked with Oghogho, our Partners and other colleagues at TEMPLARS, in transforming a 4-man law practice into a world class, multi-sectoral, multinational and full-service Law Firm which is now in the 28th year of its existence and consists of over 100 lawyers, including three Senior Advocates of Nigeria.

3. In this period, I have served TEMPLARS in various capacities including as Senior Partner and Head of the Corporate & Commercial Practice Group, in which role I led or participated in some of the major groundbreaking transactions that have shaped commercial law practice in Nigeria and indeed the Nigerian economy. It was also from TEMPLARS that I went on to become the 30th President of the Nigerian Bar Association, with the full support of the Partners and entire staff of the Firm.

4. It is therefore with mixed feelings, but with a great sense of pride and responsibility, that I announce my disengagement from Templars with effect from 31st August 2023. This decision, which is not one that was taken lightly, became inevitable in view of my recent foray into active politics with a view to contributing towards the critical task of nation building.

5. I wish to assure the lawyers and staff at TEMPLARS, our clients, the legal community in Nigeria, and the general public that this decision was a collective one, which accords with the Firm’s governance protocols that I signed up to.

6. In my absence, our clientele will continue to be served by over 100 lawyers in TEMPLARS led by twenty other partners (across different practice areas) working out of the Firm’s offices in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Accra.

7. I sincerely appreciate the Managing Partner, Oghogho Akpata, my other Partners and the entire staff of TEMPLARS for their unwavering support and for always being there for me. Indeed, the story of my life will never be complete without a chapter devoted to the central role that TEMPLARS played therein.

OLUMIDE AKPATA

24 August 2023

ECOWAS Chaiman and Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu on Thursday in Abuja granted a group of Islamic Ulamas (scholars) the approval to continue negotiations with the Niger junta for the peaceful restoration of constitutional order in that country.

This was after the group led by Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi had briefed the ECOWAS Chairman on the outcome of their previous mission to Niger at the behest of the regional organization.

The team, which is opposed to the use military force threated by ECOWAS, is expected to return to Niamey for further talks with the Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani-led junta.

Rtd Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, Nigeria’s former Head of State and the ECOWAS Special envoy to Niger, is also pursuing a similar back-channel diplomatic initiative to ensure a peaceful resolution of the Niger crisis after weeks of concerning stand-off.

President Tinubu is expected to brief his Heads of State colleagues on the next move by ECOWAS, which has rejected the 36-month political transition plan proposed by the junta.

A faction of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), led by self-acclaimed founder, Boniface Aniebonam and the National Publicity Secretary, Agbo Major, has promised to “deal” with the 2023 presidential candidate of the party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, blaming him for the crisis that has rocked the party.

The faction therefore dismissed its suspension saying it was null and void.

The National Working Committee (NWC) of the NNPP, led by Abba Alli, had earlier on Thursday announced the suspension of Major and a founding member of the party, Boniface Aniebonam.

The NWC, which said the suspension was with immediate effect, pending the outcome of investigations by the party’s Disciplinary Committee, accused Major and Aniebonam of anti-party activities.

Aniebonam was also accused of trying to factionalise the party.

But speaking for the faction, Major dismissed the suspension, describing members of the NWC as jokers, in a telephone interview with THE WHISTLER hours after the suspension was handed down.

THE WHISTLER had contacted the publicity secretary to get a reaction on his suspension by the NWC without success.

Responding hours later, Major blamed the crisis in the NNPP on Kwankwaso, whom he said had been trying to hijack the party.

“He (Kwankwaso) is the one stage managing all these things because he is planning to hijack the party. But it is not a problem, we will deal with him,” Major told THE WHISTLER.

Stressing that the suspension was of no effect, he pointed out that Aniebonam is the Founder of the NNPP, and equally the Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees (BOT).

“They (NWC members) are a bunch of jokers. They are suspending themselves. It is a Nollywood drama they are acting. Nobody will take them seriously.

“The Founder of a party and the Chairman of the Board of Trustees, you wake up and say you are suspending him for nothing.

“A Publicity Secretary of a party, you say you have suspended him. You say for anti-party activities. Which anti-party activities?

“These people are joking. Nobody would take them seriously.”

Asked what he would do next, Major said the suspension couldn’t stand.

“I am a law-abiding Nigerian but I can tell you there is nothing like suspension. They have made their pronouncement but it is the most useless pronouncement anybody can make.

“They are just on their own.

“I will be peaceful but I can assure you that whatever they are talking about there, it means nothing to me. Even in the face of the law, it makes no sense so they are wasting their time.”

Troops of the Nigerian Army, on Thursday, destroyed eight illegal oil refineries and 14 reservoirs containing an estimated 200,000 liters of stolen crude oil and 90,000 liters of diesel in the Ogbokoko and Atu areas of Warri South Local Government Area of Delta State.

Acting on intelligence, the troops stormed the area and found the refineries and reservoirs operating in full swing.

The oil thieves fled the scene upon sighting the troops, the Director, of Army Public Relations, Brig. Gen, Onyema Nwachukwu, revealed this via the Army’s handle on X, formerly Twitter.

“The Illegal refining site was destroyed in-situ in line with extant guidelines of Operation Delta Safe. Investigation is ongoing to arrest the fleeing criminals.

“Members of the public are please implored to report any suspected act of sabotage or criminality to security agencies to enhance ongoing operations to curb economic sabotage in the country,” the military disclosed.

Nigeria’s unemployment has dropped from 33.3 percent in 2020 to 4.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The 2020 figures and the current one were calculated using different methodologies, says the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), after a two-year hiatus after a two-year hiatus.

The nation’s unemployment rate which is an outcome of the labour force survey (LFS) conducted in Nigeria, is coming two years after the last official data of 33.3 percent for the fourth quarter of 2020 which was released in March 2021.

The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, who commented on the labour force survey report, however, said the drop is basically due to a new methodology adopted by the National Bureau of Statistics in conducting the survey, and not necessarily government performance.

The LFS is quarterly survey designed with the objective to produce official national statistics on the labour force, employment and unemployment for monitoring and planning purposes.

The new methodology for the Nigeria Labour Force Survey brings our Labour Force Statistics in line with international standards and best practices

However Nigeria has failed to ensure publication of the report as at when due, as Businessday findings showed that no data was published for the four quarters of 2021 as well as the first three quarters of 2022.

Clarification 

The statistician general clarified that there is no real basis to compare the data from two years ago when the report was last released to the present figures.

“NBS has not said that unemployment rate in Nigeria has “reduced from the 33.3% to whatever the figure it is now, therefore government should go to sleep” No, that is not what we have said,” the Statistician General strongly noted in his fairly long keynote speech.

According to him, “The figures today are not based on any performance of any sort, but strictly, and I repeat, strictly on the change in methodology….this is based on the new ILO standard, which Nigeria is part and parcel of, as a country.

“As a matter of fact, the current Chair of the ILO Governing Board is Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, H.E, Ambassador Abiodun Richards Adelaja, so this we cannot continue to be at odds with the ILO standard…we have adopted the ILO standard methodology, which I believe, we have shown enough justification for, and as a result, the figures have changed, and both the new and old are not comparable.

Also he noted that the NLFS is a survey for measuring whether people are engaged or not, the type of that engagement, and the nature of it, be it for pay, profit, own consumption or for free.

“This is why the concept of decent work has become much more pronounced in recent times, as the clamour for better working conditions increase, and rightly so. The measure of the quality of a person’s life is not done through the NLFS, there are other surveys that are designed for that purpose, such as the Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS), Food and Nutrition Survey, or other household Consumption and Expenditure surveys which deal with welfare and living conditions,” he said.

“Waged employment, which is very often what people confuse for employment, disregarding self-employment, is only 11.8%, meaning that most Nigerians are self-employed, do we then classify the self-employed as unemployed? This cannot be so, hence attention should shift to the quality of work people do, as that appears to be the real issue.”

Reeling out the real outcomes of the survey, Adeniran explained that “the findings reveal that about three quarters of Nigerians in the working age population, 73.6% in Q4 2022 and 76.7% in Q1, 2023 were engaged in some form of work for pay or profit during quarters under review.

He noted that this workforce is composed of individuals engaged in various types of work, including formal and informal employment. A further 4.96% were engaged in subsistence agriculture in the fourth quarter of 2022, while 3.56% of the working age population were engaged in subsistence agriculture in the first quarter of 2023.

He noted that this workforce is composed of individuals engaged in various types of work, including formal and informal employment. A further 4.96% were engaged in subsistence agriculture in the fourth quarter of 2022, while 3.56% of the working age population were engaged in subsistence agriculture in the first quarter of 2023.

The results also indicates a scarcity of Wage-employment, as the share of those employed in Wage-employment during the reference quarters was 13.4 percent in Q4 2022 and 11.8 percent in Q1 2023.

This, he said means that a lot more Nigerians operate their own businesses or engage in agriculture and that this figure was 73.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 75.4% in the first quarter of 2023. The high share of self-employed persons amongst the employed shows that most Nigerians struggle to find wage employment, which is most desirable by Nigerians.

Furthermore, the share of the working age population in Nigeria that are not working was 21.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 19.8% in the first quarter of 2023.

According to him, not working is a combination of those within the working age population who are unemployed and not in labour force, such as students, housewives and those not available and searching for work, hence the not working rate should not be taken as the unemployment rate.

He quite acknowledged that Unemployment which is a challenge faced by countries across the globe, remains so in Nigeria.

In his words, “Using the new ILO definition, the survey shows that the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2022 stood at 5.3% and 4.1% for the first quarter of 2023. 

“This figure aligns perfectly with neighbouring countries around Nigeria. Ghana (3.9%), Niger (0.5%), Chad (1.4%), Cameroon (4.0), Togo (4.1%), Benin Republic (1.7%) amongst others.

“Unemployment amongst those with post-secondary education was highest, at 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This figure is almost double the headline unemployment rate for that quarter and highlights the challenging problem of graduate unemployment, were individuals, despite their education, struggle to secure employment.

Underemployment is also a more significant issue for Nigerians, whereby persons engaged in one activity or the other yet indicate interest and availability to take on more work, due to inadequacy of the jobs they are engaged in at the time.

Findings from the survey estimate the underemployment rate to be 13.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 21.2% in the first quarter of 2023.

“This indicates that, though persons are engaged, the engagement is not sufficient for them, and they would like to work additional hours of work,” he stated.

The survey also collects information on informality of employment. Nigeria has a large informal sector, however, the number of persons engaged in informal employment is largely blurred.

“Using the ILO definition, the survey estimates that 93.5% of employed person were engaged informally in the fourth quarter of 2022, while 92.6% of employed persons in the first quarter of 2023 were also engaged informally.

For him, this is very interesting and useful information for government, particularly at this time when discussions are ongoing on palliative measures to be taken following the removal of petrol subsidies.

In his remarks, the world bank country director, Shubham Chaudhuri noted the importance of having a robust, regular national data such as the Labour force survey report, sating that reliable data gives the government to knowledge about the welfare of the nation as well as ensures the right intervention and programs needed to address challenges.

Noting that over 130 million Nigerians were multidimensionally poor, Chaudhuri stated the importance of the report cannot be overemphasised as necessary for job creation and poverty reduction. 

For the permanent secretary, Ministry of budget and economic planning, Nebeolisa Anako, the achievement is consistent with the mandate the present administration given the importance of data. “We place more emphasis on reliable data and the ministry will continue to provide support to the bureau to ensure availability of reliable data.

Hence the importance of this report is that it shows the economy realities, as labour force report is a key indices in the economy.

For the Minister, budget and economic planning, Abubakar Bagudu, data is vital to nation and planning building.

He said, “the president believes in reliable data for planning and will support anything that will lead to production of appropriate data.

“To create jobs for youths, we need this kind of data, a lot needs to be done to address the high rate of unemployment in the country. The President is desirous of reducing unemployment. 

“Nigeria is one of the countries with absorptive capacity, so what we need is to provide better environment and more incentives.”

Reaction

Analysts who spoke with Businessday, said that the delays showed government lack of concern for human development amidst high rate of poverty in the country.

Paul Inyang, Abuja based economic analyst, decried that most government initiatives and interventions are often designed without acurate data and implemented based on assumptions.

For him, no country can have a meaningful development in the absence of accurate and current. 

“If the government is concerned about the well being of its citizens, they will be expectant to know these figures because it shows the welfare of the citizens.

“How do we ensure meaningful interventions and programs if we do not have accurate data, this only happens in Nigeria where people come into government to enrich themselves.

“Even when these data are finally released, some do not reflect the realities of happenings in the country,” he said.

Determined to resolve the political standoff in Niger Republic, President Bola Tinubu, acting in his capacity as the Chairperson of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has given his approval for a delegation of Islamic leaders (Ulama) to engage in another round of dialogue with coup leaders in the country.

The decision was reached during a meeting on Thursday, where President Tinubu conferred with prominent clerics, including Sheikh Dahiru Bauchi.

The Ulama delegation had previously visited Niamey, the capital of Niger Republic, two weeks ago to engage in discussions with the junta led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, following the coup that took place on July 26, 2023, leading to the seizure of power from President Mohamed Bazoum.

As part of ECOWAS’ response to the coup, sanctions were imposed on Niger, and the possibility of employing force against the coup plotters was not ruled out.

ECOWAS, recognizing the severity of the situation, has already approved the deployment of a standby force to restore constitutional order in Niger, while maintaining its commitment to pursuing diplomatic avenues to resolve the crisis.

Abdulsalami Abubakar, the ECOWAS envoy to Niger Republic and former Nigerian Head of State, expressed optimism after his delegation’s meeting with the coup leaders that diplomatic efforts could resolve the problem.

Although the junta announced its intention to transition back to civilian rule within three years, this proposition was met with rejection from ECOWAS.

The African Union has also taken measures against the junta by suspending the Niger Republic due to the ongoing political turmoil.

Niger’s coup marked the fourth in West Africa since 2020, following similar events in Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali.